Esta tese trata de crédito, não da análise dos demonstrativos financeiros, e sim a partir do momento em que o resultado de uma análise criteriosa e competente é colocada à disposição do comitê para decidir pela concessão ou não do crédito. A decisão de crédito é nosso enfoque principal. A tese está dividida em quatro partes. Na primeira parte fazemos uma revisão bibliográfica sobre crédito, dos fundamentos históricos à aplicação de modelos sofisticados de administração de carteiras (o Creditmetrics), passando pelo Estado da Arte das técnicas de credit scoring. A segunda parte trata dos fundamentos da teoria da análise da decisão, onde discutimos e analisamos o comportamento político e racional nas organizações, e os principais problemas decorrentes de atitudes indesejáveis como escalation, groupthink e bandwagon. A terceira parte discorre, inicialmente, sobre a pesquisa e sua metodologia, apresentando as hipóteses a serem testadas. Na seqüência, com base em dezoito entrevistas com diretores das principais entidades bancárias do país, descrevemos o processo geral para a concessão de crédito para grandes corporações e analisamos sete casos de concessões de crédito malsucedidas. Finalmente, com uma amostra de 54 bancos, realizamos a análise estatística dos resultados buscando comprovar nossas hipóteses de pesquisa. Na quarta e última parte apresentamos o sumário e conclusões da tese. Podemos destacar a relevância dos aspectos comportamentais, como fundamento da tomada de decisão e crédito: os testes realizados comprovam a influência do comportamento racional como redutor do índice de inadimplência; enquanto os sintomas de comportamento político, escalation e groupthink contribuem para o aumento do índice de inadimplência. / This thesis is concerned with credit decision and not with financial statements analysis. More specifically, it is focused on the decision making process of the credit committee once the results of a competent anlysis is avalaible. The thesis is divided in four parts. In the first we present a review about credit, from its historical developments up to the applications of sophisticated portfolio management models and other modern techniques. The second part deals with the fundamentals of decision theory. We discuss ans analyze political and rational decision behaviors within organizations, and phenomenon such as escalation, groupthink and bandwagon. The third part presents, initially, the research problem, its methodology and the hypothesis to be tested. Subsequently, based on eighteen interviews with bank executives in Brazil, we describe the decision processes employed in the concession of credits to large corporations. We also analyze seven cases of unsuccessful credit decisions. Finally we present the statistical analysis of a survey by questionnaires from 54 Brazilian banks. In the fourth and last part we present the conclusions of this thesis. The key results in the importance of behavioral aspects in the credit decision processes: the statistical tests confirm that the rational behavior mitigates the bankruptcy index; while the political behavior, escalation and groupthink contribute to an increment of the banruptcy index.

Three studies were conducted to investigate how social media affordances influence individuals’ source credibility perceptions in risk situations. The MAIN model (Sundar, 2008), warranting theory (Walther & Parks, 2002), and signaling theory (Donath, 1999) served as the theoretical framework to examine the effects of bandwagon cues and identity cues embedded in retweets and users’ profile pages for health and risk online information processing. Study One examines whether bandwagon heuristics triggered by retweets would influence individuals’ source credibility judgments. Study Two investigates how bandwagon heuristics interact with different identity heuristics in credibility heuristics on an individual level. Study Three explores bandwagon heuristics at the organizational level. Three post-test only experiments with self-report online surveys were conducted to investigate the hypothesis and research questions. Results indicate that different online heuristic cues impact the judgments of competence, goodwill, and trustworthiness at different levels. Authority strongly influenced source credibility perceptions. A reverse-bandwagon effect was observed in influencing source credibility judgments. Theoretical and practical implications are discussed.

This project was carried out in cooperation with the company BAE Systems Hägglunds AB in Örnsköldsvik, which produces vehicles for military as well as civil use. There is an ongoing project at BAE researching bandwagons using electricity as their source of energy, codename SIRIUS, and this investigation is part of it. The purpose of this thesis is to investigate how to efficiently measure differences in rotational speed of affected gears inside of the gearbox in the vehicle. This is to enable efficient gearshift while the vehicle is in motion. Initially, different types of sensors are presented along with how they are used in diverse applications. The most relevant type of sensors is using technology based on electromagnetism. Calculations are then performed to control the accuracy of the sensor along with the ideal number of magnetic nodes based on the data sheet provided by the manufacturer. These parameters are then used to create the optimal amount of measuring nodes on the constructed disc that will beimplemented. Beyond that the difference in rotational speed between the main axis and the shifted gear were calculated to see how large difference in rotational speed the gears can handle during gearshift. The chosen sensor is based on the Hall effect and is called mini-HA-P Sealed made by BOSCH. The demands to be able to measure accurate data within the harsh environment of a gearbox are fulfilled by the sensor. A concept for mounting the sensor on the gearbox was developed using CAD focusing on ease of maintenance and other outside factors affecting correct measurement data such as stray magnetic fields, vibrations, and large temperature changes. Drawings of two different components were created to aid in this measuring and minor changes to the gearbox were carried out. The project also creates new aspects of research that require further investigation, for example flow analysis, material analysis and a way to convert the excess energy from retardation when the rotational speed is decreased. / Projektet utfördes i samarbete med BAE Systems Hägglunds AB i Örnsköldsvik som producerar fordon för militärt såväl som civilt bruk. Där pågår det utveckling av en bandvagn med elektricitet som energikälla, projekt SIRIUS, och vårt examensarbete är en del av detta. Syftet med arbetet är att utreda hur man bäst mäter varvtalsskillnader mellan kugghjul i växellådan inom fordonet, för att möjliggöra effektiv växling under körning.  Inledningsvis presenteras olika typer av sensorer samt hur dessa används i diverse tillämpningar. De mest relevanta sensortyperna använder sig av teknik som grundar sig på elektromagnetism. Beräkningar utfördes sedan för att kontrollera sensorns noggrannhet samt det idealiska antalet magnetiska punkter baserat på sensorns datablad. Dessa parametrar används sedan för att skapa det optimala antalet mätpunkter på de konstruerade diskar som kommer införas. Utöver detta beräknades även hur stor skillnad i varvtal mellan den drivande axeln och det påkoppladekugghjulet växellådan klarar av under växling. Sensorn som valdes är baserad på Halleffekten och kallas Mini-HA-P sealed (tillverkad av Bosch). Den uppfyller kraven att mäta varvtal under den påfrestande miljön som råder i en växellåda.  Ett koncept för montering av sensorn i/på växellådan tas fram med hjälp av CAD med åtanke för underhåll och andra störande moment som utomstående magnetiska fält, vibrationer och stora temperaturskillnader. Ritningar för två olika komponenter skapades för att underlätta mätning, och små förändringar på växellådan utfördes. Projektet skapar även nya vinklar som kräver mer djupgående studier, exempelvis flödesanalys, materialanalys och ett sätt att hantera överskottsenergi från inbromsning när varvtalet minskas. / SIRIUS

無論在電腦動畫、電玩或電影產業，利用電腦自動產生虛擬人群已逐漸成為不可或缺的要素之一。這些虛擬人群，往往是系統先賦與每個虛擬代理人(agent)基礎智能，然後藉由個體之間的互動法則所自動產生。然而，過去因為普遍未考量真實群體情境中的傳播與互動模式，使得虛擬人群所表現的群體行為與現實情況仍有些差距。因此，我們引用社會心理學文獻，建立一個具有溝通機制的人群模擬平台(IMCrowd)，以期自動產生與現實群眾動態更相似的模擬人群。IMCrowd是多代理人(Multi-agent)基礎的系統，其中每個虛擬代理人都具有區域的感知範圍與自主能力，因此他們能夠自動地與環境中的其它物件互動與反應。由於我們為IMCrowd所建立的溝通模型考量了社會心理學的理論，因此虛擬人群能浮現真實群體動態中的社會互動模式，如情緒傳染與從眾效應。本研究以IMCrowd執行了多種情境下群眾暴動與群眾控制的模擬，藉此展現本系統的應用將不僅可提升群體模擬的真實度，亦可做為社會心理學家研究群體行為的工具。 / Using computer to automatically generate simulated crowd has become a trend in animation, computer game, and film productions. Many of these works were produced by modeling the intelligence of the agents in a crowd and their interactions with other nearby agents and the environment. However, the perceived facts or elicited emotions usually do not propagate in the crowd as they should in the real life. In this work we attempt to build up a communication model to simulate a large variety of crowd behaviors including the course of crowd formation. The proposed crowd simulation system, IMCrowd, has been implemented with a multi-agent system in which each agent has a local perception and autonomous abilities to improvise their actions. The algorithms used in our communication model in IMCrowd are based heavily on sociology research. Therefore, the collective behaviors will emerge out of the social process such as emotion contagion and conformity effect among individual agents. Several elaborate riot simulations and riot control simulations are demonstrated and reported in this thesis as the application examples of IMCrowd. Thus, we claim that IMCrowd may not only benefit on enhancing realism of crowd animation but also be useful in studying crowd behaviors such as panic, gathering, and riots.

No description available.

第二次世界大戰結束以後，以美國為首的西方國家為了嚇阻蘇聯的入侵，遂成立了北大西洋公約組織。這也標誌著冷戰時期美蘇兩強對峙的局面。冷戰結束以後，許多學者因而預言北約即將瓦解。但多年以來，北約卻依然存在，更歷經了三次東擴。本文寫作的目的，便欲透過重新檢視國際關係理論三大主要學派的觀點，對於後冷戰時期的北約存續提出解釋。 在現實主義學者陣營中，摩根索與華爾滋的「權力平衡」論點與北約發展的史實不符；施韋勒的「扈從利益」論點僅部分解釋了國家聯盟行為，對於「扈從」概念的界定又出現前後不一；米爾斯海默的「推卸責任」論點試圖同時涵蓋「制衡」與「不制衡」兩種選項，而純粹的「推卸責任」策略又必須依賴其他國家願意承擔，因此不易成功。瓦特的「威脅平衡」理論雖仍有不足之處，但較適合解釋本文的個案。筆者認為，後冷戰時期的北約便是面臨了大規模毀滅性武器擴散、俄羅斯存在與恐怖主義等威脅，才強化了盟國繼續合作的意願。 從新自由主義學者的觀點而言，國家若欲在無政府狀態的國際體系中維持合作關係，便需要以互惠為基礎而運作的國際制度。當國際制度能隨著成員的需求而調整時，就能獲得更多支持。由於美國的優勢國力受到北約的制度規範與集體決策機制削弱，又具有軟權力的勸服力量，遂吸引了中、東歐國家加入聯盟。此外，民主國家之間較不容易發生戰爭。這些因素都維繫了北約盟國在後冷戰時期的合作關係。 由於後冷戰時期的北約在訴求「內群體」偏袒的同時，卻未激化「外群體」歧視。建構主義學者認為，若隨著聯盟關係的發展，成員之間能培養出休戚與共的集體身份，將個別的國家安全問題視同為集體的安全議題時，彼此便超越了傳統軍事聯盟在攻擊與防禦上合作的功能，而達到安全共同體的境界。北約所具備的規範特性也進一步增強了其對盟國的型塑能力。 聯盟的本質在於合作。但關鍵是國家為何合作、如何促進合作，以及如何決定合作對象或競爭對手。事實上，後冷戰時期的北約並未放棄對付共同威脅的核心目標，卻也逐漸發展出安全管理的功能，不但參與了維和行動，也建立起和俄羅斯與烏克蘭的對話機制，更凝聚了盟國的信念而形成具有集體身份的安全共同體。 / In the aftermath of WWII, North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO), mainly led by the U.S., was formed to deter U.S.S.R.’s aggression. This organization signified the bipolar system of international relations. When the Cold War came to an end, many scholars once predicted NATO would collapse. However, the alliance still endures for decades and enlarges eastward three times. The purpose of the dissertation is to reappraise the perspectives from three major schools of International Relation theory and provide some explanation of NATO’s endurance in the post-Cold War era. In the camp of realists, the balance-of-power theory raised by Hans J. Morgenthau and Kenneth N. Waltz is inconsistent with the facts of NATO’s development. The bandwagon-for-profit theory proposed by Randall L. Schweller only gives partial explanation of international alliances and takes a contradictory position on the concept of bandwagon. The buck-passing theory maintained by John J. Mearsheimer tries to include both the options of balance and not-balance on the one hand, while depends heavily on other states’ willingness to take the responsibility of balance on the other hand. As far as we know, the latter seldom results in success. Although the balance-of-threat theory sustained by Stephen M. Walt still has some shortcomings, it can provide a better explanation of the case discussed in the dissertation. This author concludes that NATO faces multiple threats of the spread of WMD, the existence of Russia and transnational terrorism in the post-Cold War era. That’s why the allies continue to cooperate. From the standing points of neo-liberalists, if states want to maintain cooperation under the anarchical international system, they will need international institutions based on reciprocity. When international institutions can be adjusted with the demand of their member states, they will obtain more supports. Because the primacy of the U.S. was reduced by the institutional rules and joint decision making process in NATO and accompanied with persuasive soft power, some Central and Eastern European Countries (CEEC) were drew to join the alliance. Moreover, there are few wars among democracies. For all these reasons, NATO still survives until now. When NATO seeks to develop in-group favoritism in the post-Cold War era, it does not activate out-group discrimination. Constructivists state that if members of alliances can cultivate their collective identities and transform national security problems into collective ones, they can go beyond traditional military alliances and become security communities. Features of norms in NATO also strengthen their capabilities in shaping the alliance. The essence of alliance is cooperation. Its key points for states lie in why they cooperate, how to facilitate their cooperation and how to choose their partners or opponents. As a matter of fact, in the aftermath of the Cold War, NATO doesn’t give up its core purpose of fighting against common threats, while it develops the function of security management gradually. Besides, NATO takes part in the peace-keeping operations and builds the mechanisms for communication with Russia and Ukraine. In the end, NATO solidates the belief from its member states and turns into a security community of collective identity.