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Cette présentation examinera le degré de certitude qui peut être atteint dans le domaine scientifique. Le paradigme scientifique est composé de deux extrêmes; causalité et déterminisme d'un côté et probabilité et indéterminisme de l'autre. En faisant appel aux notions de Hume de la ressemblance et la contiguïté, on peut rejeter la causalité ou le hasard objectif comme étant sans fondement et non empirique. Le problème de l'induction et le sophisme du parieur proviennent d’une même source cognitif / heuristique. Hume décrit ces tendances mentales dans ses essais « Of Probability » et « Of the Idea of Necessary Connexion ». Une discussion sur la conception de la probabilité de Hume ainsi que d'autres interprétations de probabilité sera nécessaire. Même si la science glorifie et idéalise la causalité, la probabilité peut être comprise comme étant tout aussi cohérente. Une attitude probabiliste, même si elle est également non empirique, pourrait être plus avantageuse que le vieux paradigme de la causalité. / This presentation examines the degree of certainty which can be attained in science. The scientific paradigm is composed of two extremes; causality and determinism on one end and probability and indeterminism on the other. By appealing to Hume’s notions of resemblance and contiguity, we can dismiss any claim of objective causality or chance as being ungrounded for lack of an empirical basis. The problem of induction as well as the gambler’s fallacy stem from the same cognitive/heuristic source. Hume describes these mental tendencies in his essays ‘Of Probability’ and ‘Of the Idea of Necessary Connexion’. This will necessitate a discussion of Hume’s notion of probability, as well as other interpretations of probability. While science has glorified and romanticized causality, probability can be understood as being just as consistent. While a probabilistic stance is as non-empirical as a causal stance, it will be remarked that we may benefit from a paradigmatic switch to probabilism.

L’objectif principal de cette thèse est d’analyser comment les biais cognitifs et émotionnels affectent les décisions des investisseurs lorsqu’ils achètent ou vendent des immeubles de bureaux. Pour atteindre cet objectif, cette recherche adopte, dans un premier temps, une démarche qualitative. Les entretiens semi-structurés permettent de détecter et d’analyser les biais les plus importants qui apparaissent au cours de la transaction. Parmi les différents biais décelés « l’oubli de la fréquence de base » a été sélectionné. Ce biais peut apparaître avant l’acquisition lorsque les investisseurs évaluent la performance attendue d’un immeuble. Une analyse quantitative suit pour développer une échelle qui mesure l’effet du biais. Les résultats ont montré que l’incertitude conduit certains investisseurs à supposer que le rendement qu’ils obtiendront à la fin de leur investissement sera égal à celui du rendement initial. En d’autres termes, certains investisseurs estiment que les conditions du marché resteront les mêmes qu’aujourd’hui / The main objective of this thesis is to analyse how cognitive and emotional biases affect investor decisions when buying or selling office buildings. To meet this aim, this research embarks on a qualitative research. Semi-structured interviews permit to detect and analyse the most important biases that appear in the transactions. Among the different biases discovered, the "base-rate fallacy" was selected. This bias may appear before the acquisition when investors evaluate the expected performance of a building. A quantitative analysis follows to develop a scale that tries to measure the effect of the bias. The results showed that uncertainty leads some investors to assume that the yield they will obtain at the end of their investment will be equal to that of the initial yield. In other words, some investors believe that market conditions will remain the same as today.

The thesis consists of the novel, Stargate Atlantis: Exogenesis (Whitelaw and Christensen, 2006a) and an accompanying exegesis. The novel is a stand-alone tie-in novel based on the television series Stargate Atlantis (Wright and Glassner), a spin-off series of Stargate SG-1 (Wright and Cooper) derived from the movie Stargate (Devlin and Emmerich, 1994). Set towards the end of the second season, Stargate Atlantis: Exogenesis begins with the discovery of life pods containing the original builders of Atlantis, the Ancients. The mind of one of these Ancients, Ea, escapes the pod and possesses Dr. Carson Beckett. After learning what has transpired in the 10,000 years since her confinement, the traumatised Ea releases an exogenesis machine to destroy Atlantis. Ea dies, leaving Beckett with sufficient of her memories to reveal that a second machine, on the planet Polrusso, could counter the effects of the first device. When the Atlantis team travel to Polrusso, what they discover has staggering implications not only for the future of Atlantis but for all life in the Pegasus Galaxy. The exegesis argues that both science and science fiction narrate the dissolution of ontological structures, resulting in cognitive estrangement. Fallacy writers engage in the same process and use the same themes and tools as science fiction writers to resolve cognitive estrangement: they technologise mythology. Consequently, the distinction between fact and fiction, history and myth, is blurred. The exegesis discusses cognitive estrangement, mythology, the process of technologising mythology and its function as a novum that facilitates the resolution of cognitive estrangement in both fallacy and science fiction narratives. These concepts are then considered in three Stargate tie-in novels, with particular reference to the creative work, Stargate Atlantis: Exogenesis.

The topic of the present dissertation is argumentation in the late statesman Olof Palme (1927-1986). One may reasonably think that the fascination for Palme is mainly due to his way of expressing his policy, and therefore also to his argumentation strategy. The theoretical background consists of Lloyd F. Bitzers’s theory on the rhetorical situation, Stephen E. Toulmin’s theory on the description of argumentation structures and on the notion of fallacy, as it appears in pragma-dialectics and informal logic. The rhetorical situation is used to identify vital presuppositions and conditions surrounding the analysed argumentation.Toulmin’s theoretical model is used to analyse structures in the argumentation, and the notion of fallacy is used to discover infringements upon these structures. The object of this analysis is the decisive electoral debates of autumn 1976 between Olof Palme and Thorbjörn Fälldin, held in Scandinavium, Gothenburg, Sweden. Palme had to think of a number of surrounding conditions, such as that the debate was decisive, the composition of the audience. Palme and Fälldin otherwise appeared to be rather equally equipped for the debate. Palme’s task was primarily to gain the number of votes needed to continue to keep social democracy in power. There seem to exist several levels making up his argumentation, grouped under attack and defence. Defence is in most cases based upon a strong connection with the social democrat tradition. The attack is more complicated, linked to Palme’s overall argumentative intention: to depict the non-socialists as a bad governing alternative, and the social democrats as a better one. Fallacies are regarded as instances of breaking the frame of rules that govern a critical discussion. Palme has several fallacy-like features in his argumentation. Among those, most common, are that he attacks the person Thorbjörn Fälldin, instead of the policy or party that he represents. Palme also starts from presupposed premises and tries to link the economic policy of the alliance to an intellectually-thought delimiting between liberal and conservative capitalism and social-democrat solidarity. He strives to portray the liberals and conservatives as money-orientated, whereas social democracy is depicted as people-orientated.Palme goes arguably too far at several moments during the debate,which possibly hurts his own argumentation. / Innehåller en 20-sidig utskrift från radions P1 från duellen mellan Palme och Fälldin i Göteborg den 1 sept 1976.

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Bakgrund: Betydelsen av investeringsbedömningen kan inte överbetonas till följd av dess långsiktiga fördelar för företagets giltighet och operativa funktionalitet. Beräkningsmetoder som används för investeringsbedömning bistår med nödvändig kunskap för att underlätta beslutsfattande samt för att skapa sig en tydligare bild över det föreslagna investeringsprojektet. Företag investerar för att upprätthålla sina ekonomiska mål och värderingen av olika investeringsalternativ spelar således en central roll för företagets ekonomiska fortlevnad och utveckling. Kapitalinvesteringar är ofta omfattande och förväntas generera värde på lång sikt, vilket formar företagets ekonomiska fokusområden. Detta belyser viktigheten av en kvalitativ bedömning för olika investeringsalternativ och deras respektive utvecklingsmöjligheter. Syfte: Genom att undersöka användningsområdet för kalkylräntan avser studien att öka kunskapen för sambandet mellan kalkylräntebestämningen och investeringsbedömningen. Detta som ett delsyfte till att undersöka vilka metoder som några svenska industri- och fastighetsföretag använder. Studien avser även vidare att beskriva och analysera företagens investeringskalkylering och kapitalstruktur. Metod: Studien har antagit en kvalitativ forskningsansats med semistrukturerade intervjuer med svenska industri- och fastighetsbolag. Respondenterna valdes ut genom ett målstyrt urval och vidare beskriver metoden hur insamling av det empiriska materialet har gått till. För att besvara studiens problemformulering har det empiriska materialet analyserats med den teoretiska referensramen. Slutsats: Studiens resultat visar tydliga skillnader i relation till den klassiska kapitalteorin och att långsiktiga strategiska investeringar i viss utsträckning tenderar att inkräkta på investeringar som kan generera en högre internränta och således vara mer ekonomiskt lönsam, men som är av mindre strategisk betydelse för bolaget. Detta strider mot teorins förutsättningar om att uppnå en normativt optimal kapitalstruktur. En viktig aspekt av det är att företagen försöker bibehålla en helhetlig bild av investeringarna där förutsättningar för nyutveckling ska uppmärksammas, vilket i regel inte strider mot kapitalteorins antaganden. Men i relation till det kan dock investeringskalkyler endast förse bolag med en begränsa uppfattning av investeringens ekonomiska konsekvenser. / Background: The importance of the investment appraisal cannot be overemphasized as a result of its long-term benefits to the company's validity and operational functionality. Calculation methods used for investment assessment assist with the necessary knowledge to facilitate decision-making, as well as to create a clearer picture of the proposed investment project. Companies invest to maintain their financial goals and the valuation of different investment alternatives thus plays a central role for the company's financial survival and development. Capital investments are often extensive and expected to generate value over the long term, shaping the company's financial focus areas. This highlights the importance of a qualitative assessment for different investment options and their respective development opportunities. Purpose: By examining the area of use for the discount rate, the study intends to increase knowledge of the connection between the discount rate determination and the investment assessment. This as a partial aim to investigate which methods some Swedish industrial and real estate companies use. The study also intends to describe and analyze the companies' investment calculation and capital structure Method: The study has adopted a qualitative research approach with semi-structured interviews with Swedish industrial and property companies. The respondents were selected through a targeted selection and the method further describes the collection of the empirical material. In order to answer the study's problem formulation, the empirical material has been analyzed with the theoretical frame of reference. Conclusion: The results of the study show clear differences in relation to the classic capital theory and that long-term strategic investments to a certain extent tend to encroach on investments that can generate a higher internal rate of return and thus be more financially profitable, but which are of less strategic importance for the company. This goes against the theory's prerequisites for achieving a normatively optimal capital structure. An important aspect of it is that the companies try to maintain a holistic view of the investments where the conditions for new development must be noticed, which as a rule does not contradict the assumptions of the capital theory. However, in relation to that, investment calculations can only provide companies with a limited idea of the financial consequences of the investment.