Ce travail de recherche est dédié à l’analyse des décisions de financement des Très Petites Entreprises (TPE)françaises. Le premier chapitre de cette thèse décrit le cadre de l’étude, à savoir les TPE. Le second chapitre revisite les principales théories de la structure financière à la lumière des spécificités des TPE, et motive l’utilisation du cadre théorique du financement hiérarchique. Le troisième chapitre propose un test de la théorie du financement hiérarchique sur un large échantillon de TPE françaises. Le quatrième chapitre propose d’adapter ce modèle aux choix et aux contraintes de financement de la TPE, notamment en y intégrant une hiérarchie infra dettes.Ce chapitre propose également un test empirique portant sur l’arbitrage entre dettes financières et comptes courants d’associés. La principale contribution de cette thèse est certainement la généralisation de la théorie du financement hiérarchique aux TPE françaises. Ces firmes préfèrent le financement interne au financement externe, et la dette à l’émission d’actions. Néanmoins, les firmes en excédent de financement ne cherchent pas à se désendetter rapidement, ce qui peut se traduire par l’anticipation de déficits de financement futurs, d’autant plus difficiles à combler que ces entreprises sont soumises au rationnement de crédit. La théorie du financement hiérarchique ne permet cependant pas d’expliquer la préférence des dirigeants de TPE pour les dettes financières, par rapport aux comptes courants d’associés. Les TPE étant généralement détenues et dirigées par la même personne, il est possible d’analyser ce comportement sous l’angle de la théorie de la diversification.Les actionnaires-dirigeants privilégient la diversification de leur patrimoine personnel à la minimisation des coûts d’asymétrie d’information / This research work is devoted to the analysis of financing decisions of French Very Small Businesses (VSB).The first chapter of this thesis describes the object of the study, namely the VSB. The second chapter revisits the main theories of capital structure in the light of the specificities of VSBs, and motivates the use of the theoretical framework proposed by the Pecking Order Theory. The third chapter tests the Pecking Order Theory on a large sample of French VSBs. The fourth chapter suggests adapting this theory to the evidence of financing choicesand financial constraints of VSBs, particularly by incorporating an infra-debt hierarchy. This chapter also provides an empirical test of the trade off between financial debts and partners' current accounts. The main contribution of this work is certainly the generalization of the Pecking Order Theory to the French VSB universe. These firms prefer internal financing to external financing, and debt to issuing shares. However, firms with excess of financing do not try to reduce debt quickly, which can be translated by the anticipation of future financing deficits, which become even more severe as these businesses are subject to credit rationing.Nevertheless, the Pecking Order Theory still does not provide any explanation for the preference of the VSBs’ managers for financial debt, compared to partners' current accounts. The fact that VSBs are generally owned and managed by the same person makes it possible to analyze their financial behavior under the diversification theory. Share holder-managers prefer diversifying their personal wealth rather than minimizing costs of information asymmetry

This thesis consists of three essays that explore the dynamics of interconnected markets and examine the relationships between markets, investor behavior, and fundamental characteristics of the firm and the economy. In the first essay, we investigate the role of trade credit links in generating cross-border return predictability between international firms. Using data from 43 countries from 1993 to 2009, we find that firms with high trade credit in producer countries have stock returns that are strongly predictable based on the returns of their associated customer countries. This behavior is especially prevalent among firms with high levels of foreign sales. To better understand this effect we develop an asset pricing model in which firms in different countries are connected by trade credit links. The model offers further predictions about this phenomenon, including stronger predictability during periods of high credit constraints and low uninformed trading volume. We find supportive empirical evidence for these predictions. The second essay investigates the dynamics of commodity futures volatility. I derive the variance decomposition for the futures basis to show how unexpected excess returns result from new information about expected future interest rates, convenience yields, and risk premia. Using data on major commodity futures markets and global bilateral commodity trade, I analyze the extent to which commodity volatility is related to fundamental uncertainty arising from increased emerging market demand and macroeconomic uncertainty, and control for the potential impact of financial frictions introduced by changing market structure and index trading. I find that a higher concentration in the emerging market importers of a commodity is associated with higher futures volatility. Commodity futures volatility is significantly predictable using variables capturing macroeconomic uncertainty. The third essay investigates the differential explanatory power of consumer (importing countries) and producer (exporting countries) risk in explaining the volatility of commodity spot premia and term premia using trade-weighted indices of GDP volatility. Using data for major commodity futures markets, bilateral commodity trade, exchange rates, and GDP for countries trading these commodities, I test hypotheses on the heterogeneous impact of consumer and producer shocks, potentially driven by differences in hedging preferences and investment planning horizons. Producer risk is significant for both short-dated and long-dated maturities, while consumer risk has greater explanatory power for the volatility of the term spread.

Ce travail de recherche est dédié à l’analyse des politiques de dividendes dans le contexte des fusions-acquisitions américaines. Le premier chapitre de cette thèse décrit le cadre de l’étude. Il présente le cadre théorique des politiques de dividendes, puis celui des fusions-acquisitions avant d’exposer les champs exploratoires relatifs aux spécificités des politiques de dividendes lors des opérations de fusions-acquisitions. Il traite, à la fin, une illustration d’une fusion américaine qui incarne un cas réel des interactions des politiques de dividendes lors des rapprochements des firmes. Le deuxième chapitre de la thèse explore empiriquement l’impact de la différence entre les politiques de dividendes des firmes fusionnées sur la politique de dividendes post-fusion, et teste un éventuel effet de compensation de la prime de fusion. Le troisième chapitre part de l’idée que la réaction négative du marché à l’annonce des acquisitions en titres de firmes cotées est l’issu de l’évaluation incorrecte de l’acquéreur. De ce fait, il explore un possible rôle informationnel de la politique de dividendes de l’acquéreur dans ce type d’opérations qui peut réduire l’asymétrie d’information sur la valorisation de l’acquéreur, et ainsi alléger la réaction négative du marché à l’annonce. Le quatrième chapitre étudie les caractéristiques financières des firmes fusionnées qui sont déterminantes de leurs politiques de dividendes. Au vu de cela, il suppose que la réussite de la fusion peut être affectée par la différence entre les politiques de dividendes des firmes fusionnées issue de la différence entre leurs caractéristiques. Les résultats de nos recherches prouvent l’effet de la divergence entre les politiques de dividendes des firmes fusionnées sur le déroulement de la fusion au moment et après la transaction. La principale contribution de cette thèse est donc d’illustrer l’importance de tenir compte des politiques de dividendes des firmes impliquées dans des opérations de fusions-acquisitions, afin de pouvoir prendre les bonnes décisions lors du rapprochement. La généralisation de l’effet de clientèle sur les firmes fusionnées permet de détecter des chocs de clientèles de dividendes, et de révéler la nécessité d’absorber ces chocs par certains termes transactionnels et par la conduite post-fusion de la firme combinée. / This research is dedicated to the analysis of dividend policy in the context of U.S. mergers and acquisitions. The first chapter of this thesis presents the framework of the study. It outlines the theoretical framework of the dividend policies and the mergers-acquisitions before stating exploratory fields related to the specificities and contributions of dividend policies in the M&A setting. Furthermore, it discusses an illustration of an US merger that embodies a real case of interactions between dividend policies during mergers-acquisitions. The second chapter empirically explores the impact of the difference between merging firms’ dividend policies on the post-merger dividend policy, and tests a probable compensation effect of the bid premium. The third chapter starts from the idea that the negative market reaction to the announcement of stock acquisitions of listed firms is derived from the acquirer’s misevaluation. Thereby, it explores the information content of the acquirer dividend policy in such deals which may reduce the information asymmetry on the acquirer valuation, and thus alleviate the negative market reaction at the announcement. The fourth chapter examines the financial characteristics of merging firms that are determining their existing dividend policies. In light of this, it assumes that the merger completion may be affected by the difference between merging firms’ dividend policies which are resulting from the difference between their characteristics. The findings of our research confirm the impact of the difference between the merging firms’ dividend policies on the conduct of the merger during and following the transaction. The main contribution of this thesis is to illustrate the importance of considering the dividend policies of companies involved in mergers-acquisitions in order to make the right decisions in favor of the reconciliation. The generalization of the clientele effect on the M&A setting allow to detect dividend clientele shocks, and reveal the need to absorb these shocks by transaction specifics and the post-merger conduct of the merged firm.

L'objectif de cette thèse est d'analyser le rôle des agences de notation sur le marché financier. Notre contribution consiste à mieux comprendre l'influence des annonces de notation sur les acteurs du marché français des actions (investisseurs et analystes financiers).La première question porte sur l'apport informatif délivré par les agences de notation et l'impact de leurs décisions. Afin de répondre à cette question, nous avons conduit une étude d'évènement à l'annonce de notation en distinguant les annonces par nature, type et catégorie.Cette recherche permet de prouver que les annonces de notation ont globalement un impact sur le marché des actions. L'impact dépend de la nature de l'annonce, des informations fournies dans les rapports de notation, des changements de note entre catégories et de ceux effectués dans la catégorie spéculative. Enfin, le niveau de la note dépend des caractéristiques financières et comptables de l'entreprise notée.La seconde question porte sur le rôle bénéfique des agences de notation sur les marchés. Afin de répondre à cette deuxième question, nous avons conduit une recherche qui consiste à analyser l'évolution de l'asymétrie d'information entre les investisseurs et de la liquidité autour des annonces de notation.Cette recherche prouve que les annonces positives (respectivement négatives) entraînent une diminution (respectivement augmentation) de l'asymétrie d'information sur le marché des actions. Les résultats prouvent également que les annonces positives et neutres, à l'inverse des annonces négatives, entraînent une réduction des fourchettes de prix et une amélioration des volumes de transactions. Ces deux effets concomitants traduisent une amélioration (respectivement détérioration) de la liquidité du marché lors des annonces positives et neutres (respectivement négatives).La troisième question porte sur l'utilité des annonces de notation pour les analystes lors de leurs prévisions. Afin de répondre à cette question, nous avons mené une recherche qui consiste à étudier l'évolution de la dispersion et de l'erreur des prévisions des analystes autour des annonces de notation.Les résultats mettent en évidence une relation inverse entre les caractéristiques des prévisions des analystes financiers et la nature de l'annonce de notation. Les annonces positives et neutres réduisent l'erreur et la dispersion des prévisions d'analystes.Ce travail de recherche permet d'attester de la réelle importance du contenu informationnel des annonces de notation pour le marché des actions et de la réelle contribution des annonces à l'amélioration de la communication financière sur le marché. / The main objective of this thesis is to analyze the role of rating agencies on the financial market. Our contribution consists in a better understanding of the impact of rating announcements on the agents on the French financial market (both investors and analysts).First we focus on the information content of announcements by rating agencies and the impact of theirs decisions in the market. To answer this question, we made an event study at the rating announcements, by identifying them by nature, type and category.This research highlights the fact that the rating announcements generally have an impact on the stock market. This impact depends on the nature of the announcement, the information provided in the reports as well as score changes between categories and within the speculative category. Moreover, the rating level depends on the firm financial and accounting characteristics.Second, we intend to understand the beneficial role of rating agencies on the financial markets. To answer this question, we analyzed the evolution of the information asymmetry and stock market liquidity around rating announcements.Our results show that positive announcements (respectively negative) lead to a decrease (respectively increase) of information asymmetry. We also found that positive and neutral announcements, unlike the negative ones, lead to a reduction of bid-ask spread and to an increase of transactions volumes. Both effects reflect higher (respectively lower) stock market liquidity when the announcements are positive or neutral (respectively negative).Finally, we focus on the study of the impact of rating announcements on analysts' forecasts. For this purpose, we studied the evolution of the analysts' forecasts dispersion and errors around rating announcements.Our results indicate an inverse relationship between the characteristics of financial analysts' forecasts and the nature of the rating announcement. Indeed, positive and neutral announcements reduce the error and the dispersion of analysts' forecasts.This research shows the informative content of rating announcements on the stock market and the real contribution of the announcements by improving financial communication.

Bakgrund: Den tredje januari 2018 trädde EU-direktivet Markets in Financial Instruments Directive II (MiFID II) i kraft. Direktivet ämnar öka investerarskyddet genom att eliminera informationsasymmetri och intressekonflikter på finansmarknaden, och samtidigt harmonisera reglerna mellan EU-länder. Inom investeringsrådgivning innebär det nya regelverket ökad dokumentation, ett större fokus på att försäkra sig om att investerarna förstår risker, hårdare krav på hur avgifter kommuniceras och striktare regler kring incitament. Allt detta för att skydda investerarna, som ofta visat sig ha en bristfällig finansiell kunskap och ett lågt intresse för privatekonomi. Syfte: Syftet med uppsatsen är att utifrån värdepappersföretagens perspektiv skapa förståelse för vilken påverkan EU-direktivet MiFID II har haft på principal-agent problem som uppstår vid investeringsrådgivning. Genomförande: Uppsatsen är en kvalitativ fallstudie. Vidare har ett fenomenologiskt forskningsperspektiv använts, med en abduktiv ansats. Det empiriska materialet har samlats in genom semistrukturerade intervjuer med sammanlagt sju respondenter som alla jobbar på värdepappersföretag, vilka valdes ut med ett målstyrt bekvämlighetsurval. Resultat: Uppsatsen kommer fram till att principal-agent problemen inom investeringsrådgivning inte har eliminerats. Informations- asymmetrin är enligt vår tolkning av de traditionella teorierna närmast obefintlig, men utgör fortfarande ett stort problem på grund av investerarnas ointresse och relativt låga förmåga att ta till sig informationen. Vi argumenterar därav att dessa dimensioner bör inkluderas i teorin för vilka trösklar som kan orsaka informationsasymmetrin. Intressekonflikterna har reducerats, men finns till viss mån fortfarande kvar. Motivationen att agera i ett egenintresse har dock inte påverkats. Uppsatsen visar således på att MiFID II inte har förflyttat principal-agent relationen till en stewardship relation. Kunskapsbidrag: Det teoretiska bidraget gällande informationsasymmetri utmanar antagandet om att principalen vill ha information som är relevant för denne. Uppsatsen visar att så inte alltid är fallet. Förutom att det uppstår informationsasymmetri om det är kostsamt eller svårt att ta reda på agentens handlingar, kan det även uppstå i situationer där principalen är ointresserad av, eller oförmögen att ta till sig av informationen enligt vår mening. Vidare har MiFID II inneburit att det är svårare för agenten att tillgodose sitt egenintresse om detta strider mot principalens. Däremot har direktivet inte inneburit att den interna motivationen ändrats och det går därför inte att förutsätta att ett kontraktsförhållande som haft en principal-agent relation övergår till en stewardship relation när dessa problem elimineras. Genom en ökad förståelse för hur tvingande lagstiftningar påverkar principal-agent problem kan det empiriska bidraget hjälpa tillsynsmyndigheter i sitt arbete att hantera principal-agent problem. Uppsatsen skulle således kunna underlätta vidareutveckling av regleringen som finns idag, likväl som utformningen av framtida direktiv och lagar. Med ett utomstående perspektiv på vilka intressekonflikter som kan uppstå vid investeringsrådgivning skulle det empiriska bidraget också kunna vara gynnsamt för värdepappersföretag och deras arbete för att hantera intressekonflikter. / Background: On January 3, 2018, the EU directive Markets in Financial Instruments Directive II (MiFID II) came into effect. The directive is intended to expand investor protection through eliminating information asymmetry and conflicts of interest in the financial market, while also harmonizing the regulations between nations within the EU. For investment advising, the directive results in more extensive documentation and stricter regulation of how fees and risks are communicated, as well as how incentives are handled; all with the aim of protecting investors. At the same time, the general public shows low interest in personal finance, as well as inadequate financial knowledge. Purpose: The purpose of this study is to further the understanding of how the introduction of the EU directive MiFID II has affected the principal-agent problem that arises during investment advising, from an investment firm perspective. Completion: This is a qualitative case-study which utilizes a phenomenological research perspective and an abductive approach. The empirical material has been collected through semi-structured interviews at investment firms with a total of seven respondents, whom were selected through goal-oriented convenience sampling.  Conclusion: The study concludes that the principal-agent problems in investment advising have not been eliminated. According to our interpretation of the traditional theories, information asymmetry is nearly non-existent. Yet it remains a significant problem due to lack of interest and an inability to assimilate the information. Thus, we argue that the theoretical framework should be revised to include these barriers, as they may lead to information asymmetry. Conflicts of interest have been reduced, but still remain to some extent. Furthermore, the motivation to act based on self-interest still remain. Hence, the study shows that MiFID II has not turned the principal-agent relationship into a stewardship relationship. Contribution: The theoretical contribution to information asymmetry challenges the assumption that the principal is interested in all the information that is of relevance for them. The study show that this is not always the case. Apart from information asymmetry arising when ascertaining the actions of the agent is expensive or difficult, it can also arise due to the principal’s lack of interest or inability to assimilate the information. Moreover, MiFID II has made it more difficult for the agent to act in their own self-interest, should it deviate from the interest of the principal. The directive has not, however, affected the intrinsic motivation of the agent. Thus, we cannot assume that the elimination of these problems causes a principal-agent relationship to transform into a stewardship relationship. Through an increased understanding of how binding legislation affects principal-agent problems, the empirical contribution can help regulatory bodies in their work to mitigate the aforementioned problems. Hence, the study may help to not only expand existing legislation, but also in the development of future legislation and directives. By providing an outside perspective of what conflicts of interests could arise in investment advising, the empirical contribution could also be of use for investment firms in their work to identify and manage conflicts of interest

Background: On January 3, 2018, the discussed MiFID II directive was implemented. The proponents argue that MiFID II increases transparency and benefits the end customers. The critics argue that smaller players are driven out from the market and that companies lose coverage. Although a year has passed, there are few studies on how financial players perceive the effects and how research, that in theory contributes to reduce information asymmetry on the financial market, is affected. Purpose: The purpose of this study is to increase the understanding of how the Buy and Sell side of equity analysis experience the aftermath of MiFID II one year after the implementation, and what continued impact the directive is expected to have in the long run. This study will more specifically study how equity research, operations, the market and its players got effected by MiFID II. Method: In order to answer the purpose of this study a qualitative method is being used. Moreover, the study has an abductive approach and a case study design in which eight semi-structured interviews were conducted in order to answer the research questions and capture the phenomenological perspective. Conclusion: The study shows that the biggest change that the Buy and Sell side observe MiFID II has had is the unbundling cost of research and execution. This change has led to a decrease in demand, a fall in prices and a decrease in the overall quality of analyzes. The Buy side has reduced the number of counterparties, while the Sell side experienced reduced revenues. / Bakgrund Den 3 januari 2018 infördes det omdiskuterade MiFID II direktivet. Förespråkarna menar att MiFID II ökar transparensen och gynnar slutkunderna. Kritikerna menar att mindre aktörer slås ut och att bolag tappar bevakning. Trots att ett år passerat finns få studier av hur finansiella aktörer såsom fondförvaltare och aktieanalytiker upplever MiFID II:s följder, samt hur aktieanalyser, som i teorin bidrar till att minska informationsasymmetrin på den finansiella marknaden, påverkats. Syfte Syftet med denna studie är att öka förståelsen för hur köp- och säljsidan av aktieanalyser aktieanalyser upplever att MiFID II har haft för följder ett år efter implementeringen, samt hur MiFID II förväntas ha för fortsatt påverkan på sikt. Mer specifikt ämnar studien att undersöka hur verksamheten, marknaden, aktörerna och aktieanalyser påverkats. Metod För att besvara studiens syfte används en kvalitativ metod. Vidare har studien en abduktiv ansats och en fallstudiedesign, där åtta semistrukturerade intervjuer genomfördes för att kunna besvara studiens forskningsfrågor och fånga studiens fenomenologiska perspektiv. Slutsats Studien visar att den största förändringen som respondenterna på köp- och säljsidan upplever att MiFID II haft är uppdelningen av kostnaden för analys och exekvering. Denna förändring har bland annat lett till att efterfrågan minskat, priset sjunkit och den generella kvalitén på analyserna minskat. Köpsidan har dragit ned på antal parter och säljsidan upplever problem medminskade intäkter.

Mikroföretagens roll är av stor betydelse för den svenska ekonomin. Dock visar statistik att var tredje mikroföretag går i konkurs kort efter uppstarten. Detaljhandelsbranschen visar sig vara den näst mest konkurrensutsatta branschen i Sverige samt att mikroföretag upplever finansieringsproblematik. En orsak till detta kan bero på företagares bristande kunskap om vilka finansieringalternativ som finns. Syftet med studien är att undersöka vilka val av finansieringsmetoder mikroföretag inom detaljhandeln väljer, samt hur andra finansieringsmetoder kan användas för att öka ett företags kapitalbehov. Studien har genomförts med en kvalitativ forskningsmetod och semistrukturerade intervjuer som insamlingsmetod. Studien har utgått från teorierna pecking order-teorin, trade-off teorin, det finansiella gapet samt olika finansieringsmetoder. Det insamlade materialet består av tre stycken semistrukturerade intervjuer med respondenter från tre mikroföretag inom detaljhandelsbranschen. Studiens slutsatser visar på att mikroföretag inom detaljhandelsbranschen väljer att finansiera sin verksamhet främst genom eget kapital. De undersökta mikroföretagen uppfattar svårigheter med banklån som finansieringsmetod på grund av informationsasymmetrin som råder mellan företagare och finansiärer. Samtliga mikroföretag upplever att det råder hög konkurrens inom detaljhandelsbranschen. / The role of microenterprises is of significance for the Swedish economy, however statistics show that every third microenterprise goes bankrupt shortly after the startup. The retail sector is proving to be the second most exposed sector for competition in Sweden. One of the reasons for this may be because of the entrepreneur’s lack of knowledge about existing financial options. The purpose of this study is to investigate the choice of financing methods for microenterprises within the retail sector and how other financing methods can be used to increase a company’s capital. The study was conducted through a qualitative research method with semistructured interviews as a collection method. The study has been based on theories such as pecking order-theory, trade-off theory, financial gap and various financing methods. The empiricism in the study consists of three semistructured interviews with respondents from three microenterprises within the retail sector. The study’s conclusion shows that microenterprises within the retail sector choose to finance their operations mainly with equity. The study’s investigated microenterprises perceive difficulties with bankloans as a financing method due to information asymmetry between entrepreneurs and financiers. All investigated microenterprises experience high competition in the retail sector.

Diese Dissertation behandelt Fragen aus der stochastischen Analysis und der Finanzmathematik, die sich unter dem Begriff der Robustheit zusammenfassen lassen. Zunächst betrachten wir finanzmathematische Modelle mit Arbitragemöglichkeiten. Wir identifizieren die Abwesenheit von Arbitragemöglichkeiten der ersten Art (NA1) als minimale Eigenschaft, die in jedem finanzmathematischen Modell gelten muss, und zeigen, dass (NA1) äquivalent zur Existenz eines dominierenden lokalen Martingalmaßes ist. Als Beispiel für Prozesse, die (NA1) erfüllen, studieren wir stetige lokale Martingale, die darauf bedingt werden nie Null zu treffen. Anschließend verwenden wir eine modellfreie Version der (NA1) Eigenschaft, die es erlaubt, qualitative Eigenschaften von “typischen Preistrajektorien” zu beschreiben. Hier konstruieren wir ein pfadweises Itô-Integral. Dies deutet an, dass sich typische Preispfade als rough-path-Integratoren verwenden lassen. Nun entwickeln wir mittels Fourierentwicklungen einen alternativen Zugang zur rough-path-Theorie. Wir zerlegen das Integral in drei Operatoren mit verschiedenen Eigenschaften. So wird offensichtlich, dass Integratoren mit der Regularität der Brownschen Bewegung mit ihrer Lévy-Fläche versehen werden müssen, um ein pfadweise stetiges Integral zu erhalten. Daraufhin bemerken wir, dass die Integration zweier Funktionen gegeneinander äquivalent dazu ist, eine Funktion mit der Ableitung einer anderen (im Allgemeinen eine Distribution) zu multiplizieren. In höheren Dimensionen ist das Multiplikationsproblem jedoch allgemeiner. Wir verwenden Littlewood-Paley-Theorie, um unseren Fourier-Zugang zur rough-path-Theorie auf Funktionen mehrdimensionaler Variablen zu erweitern. Wir konstruieren einen Operator, der für Funktionen mit dem punktweisen Produkt übereinstimmt und in einer geeigneten Topologie stetig ist. Nun lassen sich stochastische partielle Differentialgleichungen lösen, die bisher aufgrund von Nichtlinearitäten nicht zugänglich waren. / This thesis deals with various problems from stochastic analysis and from mathematical finance that can best be summarized under the common theme of robustness. We begin by studying financial market models with arbitrage opportunities. We identify the weak notion of absence of arbitrage opportunities of the first kind (NA1) as the minimal property that every sensible asset price model should satisfy, and we prove that (NA1) is equivalent to the existence of a dominating local martingale. As examples of processes that satisfy (NA1) but do not admit equivalent local martingale measures, we study continuous local martingales conditioned not to hit zero. We continue by working with a model free formulation of the (NA1) property, which permits to describe qualitative properties of “typical asset price trajectories”. We construct a pathwise Itô integral for typical price paths. Our results indicate that typical price paths can be used as integrators in the theory of rough paths. Next, we use a Fourier series expansion to develop an alternative approach to rough path integration. We decompose the integral into three components with different behavior. Then it is easy to see that integrators with the regularity of the Brownian motion must be equipped with their Lévy area to obtain a pathwise continuous integral operator. We now note that integrating two functions against each other is equivalent to multiplying one with the derivative of the other, which will in general only be a distribution. In higher index dimensions however, the multiplication problem is more general. We use Littlewood-Paley theory to extend our Fourier approach from rough path integrals to multiplying functions of a multidimensional index. We construct an operator which agrees with the usual product for smooth functions, and which is continuous in a suitable topology. We apply this to solve stochastic partial differential equations that were previously difficult to access due to nonlinearities.

Die vorliegende Dissertation präsentiert eine umfassende Analyse und Strukturierung des Marktes für netzbasierte Dienste. Basierend auf einer detaillierten Untersuchung des ASP-Angebotes und der ASP-Nachfrage in Europa werden geeignete Institutionen und Informationssubstitute für die Anpassung (Matching) des ASP-Angebotes und der ASP-Nachfrage identifiziert und getestet. Die Strukturierung der Angebotsseite umfasst neben der Bewertung der Marktlage die Entwicklung der ASP-Wertschöpfungskette, die Einordnung in die Systematik der digitalen Güter, die Beschreibung der ASP-Technologien und -Geschäftsmodelle und den Vergleich des ASP-Geschäftsmodells mit der klassischen Softwarenutzung und dem Konzept der virtuellen Organisationen. Die Ergebnisse der Untersuchungen zeigen vorhandene Defizite in der Informations- und Kommunikationspolitik der ASP-Angebotsseite auf. Für die Strukturierung der Nachfrageseite für netzbasierte Dienste werden die Theorien der Auslagerung (Outsourcing) von Informationstechnologien, die Methoden und Instrumente der Kosten- und Nutzenmessung und die Theorie der Transaktionsphasen der Auslagerung angewendet. Kern der wissenschaftlichen Untersuchung bildet die empirische Untersuchung des ASP-Nachfragemarktes in Deutschland und anderen europäischen Ländern. Die Erkenntnisse der Analyse des ASP-Angebotes und der ASP-Nachfrage werden gegenübergestellt und Methoden zur Abstimmung von ASP-Angebot und Nachfrage mit Hilfe der Transaktionskostentheorie und den Theorien der Informations- und Institutionenökonomie abgeleitet. Barrieren, Intransparenzen und Informationsasymmetrien werden auf beiden Seiten aufgezeigt und darauf aufbauend Informationssubstitute für netzbasierte Dienste identifiziert. Erfahrungs- und Vertrauenseigenschaften werden mit Hilfe von Informationssubstituten in einem Onlinebefragungsexperiment hinsichtlich der Wahrnehmung, Wirkung und möglicher Zahlungsbereitschaften überprüft. Aus den Ergebnissen des Onlinebefragungsexperimentes werden Anforderungen an die Informations- und Kommunikationspolitik und Strategien zur Reduzierung der Informationsasymmetrie für netzbasierte Dienste entwickelt. Das Ergebnis der Arbeit ist die Ableitung relevanter Kriterien für die Darstellung und Bewertung der Leistungsbündel netzbasierter Dienste und die Entwicklung von Strategien zur Reduzierung der Transaktionsunsicherheit durch die Identifizierung und Integration von Informationssubstituten für netzbasierte Dienste. / This dissertation presents a comprehensive analysis and conceptual framework of the web-based Application Service Provider (ASP) market. Based on a detailed analysis of ASP supply and demand in Europe, appropriate institutions and information substitutes for the matching process on the ASP market are identified and evaluated. The conceptual framework for the supply side is developed by evaluating the market situation, designing an ASP value chain, classifying digital goods, describing the ASP technologies and business models. These are then compared with the classic model of software utilization and the concept of virtual organizations. The results indicate present deficits in the supply-side information and communication policy. For ASP demand, theories of outsourcing of information technologies, methods and instruments of cost-and-utility-measuring and the theory of transaction phases of outsourcing are used. The basis for both supply-side and demand-side evaluations is an empirical analysis of the European ASP market. We compare the outcome of the supply and demand analyses and derive methods for their coordination by the transaction cost theory and the theories of information and institution economy. Barriers, lack of transparencies and information asymmetries are identified on both sides and thus, information substitutes for web-based services are developed. Information substitutes for experience and trust characteristics are evaluated with an online-questionnaire completed by key participants based on their perception, action and willingness to pay. From those results, we deduce strategies for reducing the information asymmetry. The result of the work is the deduction of relevant criteria for the presentation and evaluation for the supply of web-based services and the development of strategies for reducing the transaction uncertainty by identifying and integrating information substitutes.

Que tipo de relação existe entre a exposição que uma empresa tem na mídia e o seu valor de mercado e o volume de negócios com suas ações? Partindo da premissa que a exposição de uma empresa na imprensa aumenta o alcance das informações relativas a ela e contribui para diminuir a assimetria informacional entre a administração da companhia e os investidores, o objetivo deste trabalho foi testar empiricamente se existe relação positiva entre a exposição de companhias abertas brasileiras na imprensa e seu valor de mercado e a liquidez de suas ações em bolsa. Trata-se do primeiro estudo feito no Brasil sobre o assunto. A partir de uma amostra de 152 companhias que representavam 81% do valor de mercado da bolsa brasileira em março de 2015, foi levantada a frequência de matérias que citaram essas empresas no jornal Valor Econômico no período de 20 trimestres entre janeiro de 2010 e dezembro de 2014. A técnica estatística usada foi a de regressão com Dados em Painel, que considera a variação tanto entre as companhias da amostra como também as alterações de valores no tempo para cada empresa. Como esperado a partir da plataforma teórica e da evidência de estudos internacionais, os resultados indicam uma relação estatisticamente significativa entre cobertura da mídia e valor de mercado. Os resultados foram consistentes tanto no teste com o múltiplo preço/valor patrimonial (P/VPA) como com a métrica Q de Tobin como variável dependente. Isso significa que, nesta amostra, as empresas que aparecem com mais frequência na imprensa econômica têm maior valor de mercado relativo do que aquelas que aparecem menos. Um terceiro teste foi feito para medir a relação da exposição na mídia com a liquidez das ações, também encontrando associação estatisticamente significante e positiva. No caso do primeiro teste, é importante destacar que, quando a amostra foi dividida em quartis por porte, a cobertura da mídia perdeu significância para explicar o valor de mercado das maiores empresas do país. Espera-se que o trabalho, ainda que com as limitações de um estudo pioneiro no país, possa contribuir para que companhias abertas, assessorias de imprensa, veículos de comunicação e também os reguladores do mercado conheçam melhor as relações existentes com a exposição na imprensa. Se a linha de pesquisa prosperar e uma relação de causa e efeito for comprovada, imagina-se que no futuro as empresas poderão usar planos de mídia em estratégias de relações com investidores e medir esses efeitos. / What kind of relationship exists between the exposure that a company has in the media and its market value and the traded volume of its stocks? Assuming that the exposure of a company in the press increases the extent of information relating to it and helps to reduce the information asymmetry between the company\'s management and investors, the objective of this study was to empirically test whether there is a positive relationship between Brazilian companies exposure in the press and its market value and the liquidity of its shares on the stock exchange. This is the first study in Brazil on the subject. From a sample of 152 companies representing 81% of the market capitalization of the Brazilian stock market in March 2015, I have collected the frequency of stories in which they were mentioned in the Valor Econômico newspaper in the period of 20 quarters between January 2010 and December 2014. The statistical technique used was the regression with Panel Data, which considers the variation both between the sample of companies as well as value changes over time for each company. As expected from the theoretical platform and evidence from international studies, the results indicated a statistically significant relationship between media coverage and market value. The results were consistent in both the test with the multiple price-to-book (P/B) as with the Tobin\'s Q ratio as the dependent variable. This means that companies in this sample that appear more frequently in the financial press have higher market value relative to those that appear less. A third test was done to measure the relationship between media exposure with the liquidity of the shares, also finding statistically significant positive association. For the first test, it is important to note that, when the sample was divided into quartiles by size, media coverage has lost significance in explaining the market value of the largest companies in the Brazilian market. It is expected that work, albeit with the limitations of a pioneering study in the country, can contribute to public companies, press offices, media outlets and also the market regulators to have a more informed perception of the scope of the exposure in the press. If the line of research to thrive and if a cause and effect relationship is proven, it is thought that, in the future, companies may use media plans in investor relations strategies and measure these effects.