No description available.

<p>Syftet med uppsatsen är att analysera luftvärnsbataljonen och undersöka om de tillämpar manövertänkande, dels i teorin men även i praktiken.</p><p>Kärnfrågan i uppsatsen blir således:</p><p> Tillämpas manövertänkande i teorin och praktiken inom luftvärnsbataljonen?</p><p> Uppsatsen utgår från en definition av manövertänkande enligt den svenska Försvarsmakten där fyra indikatorer togs fram i syfte att kunna analysera och spåra om manövertänkande tillämpas inom luftvärnsbataljonen.</p><p> Resultatet visar att det är ett tudelat svar, å ena sidan är luftvärnsbataljonen långt framme i de teoretiska delarna. I styrdokumenten och i ett utgrupperingsskede finns det tydliga spår av hur manövertänkande skall nyttjas. Å andra sidan kan det påstås att indikatorerna överraskning, vilseledning och kraftsamling ofta används som uttryck istället för att dra dem riktigt i botten. Med det menas att indikatorerna inte alltid används för att utnyttja motståndarens svagheter utan används snarare för att parera dennes troliga attack.</p><p> Slutsatserna som dragits är att luftvärnsbataljonen har kommit en bit på vägen för att kunna tillämpa manövertänkande. En viktig punkt är att få med all personal inom bataljonen till att arbeta utifrån ett manövertänkande sätt. För att manövertänkande skall utvecklas och bli tillämpbart inom bataljonen måste praktisk övning ske. Övning ger färdighet.</p>

Syftet med uppsatsen är att analysera luftvärnsbataljonen och undersöka om de tillämpar manövertänkande, dels i teorin men även i praktiken. Kärnfrågan i uppsatsen blir således:  Tillämpas manövertänkande i teorin och praktiken inom luftvärnsbataljonen?  Uppsatsen utgår från en definition av manövertänkande enligt den svenska Försvarsmakten där fyra indikatorer togs fram i syfte att kunna analysera och spåra om manövertänkande tillämpas inom luftvärnsbataljonen.  Resultatet visar att det är ett tudelat svar, å ena sidan är luftvärnsbataljonen långt framme i de teoretiska delarna. I styrdokumenten och i ett utgrupperingsskede finns det tydliga spår av hur manövertänkande skall nyttjas. Å andra sidan kan det påstås att indikatorerna överraskning, vilseledning och kraftsamling ofta används som uttryck istället för att dra dem riktigt i botten. Med det menas att indikatorerna inte alltid används för att utnyttja motståndarens svagheter utan används snarare för att parera dennes troliga attack.  Slutsatserna som dragits är att luftvärnsbataljonen har kommit en bit på vägen för att kunna tillämpa manövertänkande. En viktig punkt är att få med all personal inom bataljonen till att arbeta utifrån ett manövertänkande sätt. För att manövertänkande skall utvecklas och bli tillämpbart inom bataljonen måste praktisk övning ske. Övning ger färdighet.

Automation surprises are examples of poor Human-Machine Interaction (HMI) where pilots were surprised by actions of the automation, which lead to dangerous situations during which pilots had to counteract the autopilot. To be able to identify problems that may arise between pilots and automation before implementation, methods are needed that can uncover potentially dangerous HMI early in the design process. In this work, two such methods, simulation and model checking, have been combined and compared to leverage the benefits of both. In the past, model checking has been successful at uncovering known automation surprises. Simulation, on the other hand, has been successful in the aviation domain and human factor issues. To be able to compare these two approaches, this work focused on a common case study involving a known automation surprise. The automation surprise that was examined, is linked to the former Airbus speed protection logic that caused aircraft on approach to change the flight mode, resulting in a sudden climb. The results provided by the model checking with SAL (Symbolic Analysis Laboratory) in a previous work, have been used to provide input for simulation. In this work, this automation surprise was simulated with the simulation platform WMC (Work Models that Compute) and compared to the corresponding results from SAL. By using the case study, this work provides a method to examine system behavior, such as automation surprises, using model checking and simulation in conjunction to leverage the benefits of both.

Submitted by Marcia Bacha (marcia.bacha@fgv.br) on 2012-11-27T12:55:43Z No. of bitstreams: 1 1424220.pdf: 301206 bytes, checksum: 1f4091e3ffd5fc7ee179deb76ab824b1 (MD5) / Approved for entry into archive by Marcia Bacha (marcia.bacha@fgv.br) on 2012-11-27T12:55:59Z (GMT) No. of bitstreams: 1 1424220.pdf: 301206 bytes, checksum: 1f4091e3ffd5fc7ee179deb76ab824b1 (MD5) / Approved for entry into archive by Marcia Bacha (marcia.bacha@fgv.br) on 2012-11-27T12:56:10Z (GMT) No. of bitstreams: 1 1424220.pdf: 301206 bytes, checksum: 1f4091e3ffd5fc7ee179deb76ab824b1 (MD5) / Made available in DSpace on 2012-11-27T12:56:19Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 1424220.pdf: 301206 bytes, checksum: 1f4091e3ffd5fc7ee179deb76ab824b1 (MD5) Previous issue date: 2010 / Aparentemente existe uma anomalia no mercado de ações, onde é possível prever excessos de retomo das ações baseando-se em dados passados de divulgação de lucro. Este fenômeno é estatisticamente significante e parece não ser um artefato de amostragem ou metodologia, mas de uma ineficiência de mercado. Estudos mostram uma tendência dos excessos de retornos acumulados das ações se movimentarem na direção da surpresa de lucro, e este movimento se estende por meses após a data de divulgação de lucro trimestral. Neste trabalho mostro que este fenômeno ocorre também no Brasil, mesmo utilizando uma amostra com especificidades do mercado brasileiro e utilizando dados de expectativas de lucro de analistas financeiros no lugar de previsão estatística. / Apparently, there is an anomaly in the stock market that shows that is possible to predict abnormal returns from stocks based on past earnings announcements. This phenomenon is statistical1y significant and appears not to be an artifact of sample or methodologies, but from a market inefficiency. Studies demonstrate a tendency towards accumulated abnormal retums to move toward the direction of the earnings surprise and this movement continues to weeks and even months. This study illustrates that this phenomenon also occurs in Brazil, even using a sample with Brazilian market specifications and using eamings expectations from financiaI analysts in place of statistical forecasts.

Background: The principles of war have a central but debated role in modern doctrine with heritage dating back to Sun Tzu. Despite that the principles are used in several modern doctrines, there is surprisingly little research to be found on these principles. The principles of security and surprise, are both argued as being key components in amphibious operations, though can also be seen as contradictory. Method: This thesis explores the principles of war by studying the theory of security, developing a theory with a set of success factors. These factors consist of physical protection, information supremacy and reserves. Hypothetically, the presence of these factors explains the outcome of amphibious raids. The theory is examined in a qualitative text analysis on two case studies on the raids on St Nazaire and Makin Island where the success factors are tested by a deductive dihedral design. The results open for a final discussion in comparison with Jimmy Johansson’s research of the principle of surprise previously made on the same raids. Results: The results show that security, through the presence of success factors, is positively affecting the outcome of amphibious raids, though further research is necessary. Security and surprise although contradictory can work in synergy with a successful surprise element leading to increased security and information supremacy a prerequisite for surprise.

No description available.

Approved for public release, distribution is unlimited / A military deployment is visible and vulnerable. But, deployments are currently planned assuming they can be completed with surprise, or defended from any threat. JFAST, the current deployment planning and visualization tool of choice, uses heuristics of unknown reliability that yield deployment plans of unknown quality, and ignores vulnerability. We introduce LIFTER, an integer-linear program (ILP) that optimizes a time-phased force deployment (TPFDD) by day, by asset cycle, and by TPFDD line (individual shipment from an origin to a destination), and ATTACKER, also an ILP, representing a smart enemy's resource-limited interdictions to maximally disrupt LIFTER's subsequently re-optimized TPFDD plan. LIFTER activates transport assets from an allocation list, and yields a complete logistic plan that minimizes disruption represented by penalties for early, tardy, late, or dropped shipments, and for under-utilization of asset capacity. We use LIFTER to qualitatively assess JFAST heuristic plans. We also link both ILPs in a decomposition-based search for the best deployment plan around the worst-case interdiction, given that the actions of deployer and interdictor are transparent to both parties. We explain how JFAST could be embellished with its own version of ATTACKER. A key discovery here is a gauge of the value of intelligence, deception, and secrecy. / Lieutenant, United States Navy

This thesis examines the response of a representative agent investor to sequences (streaks) of quarterly earnings surprises over a period of twelve quarters using the United States S&P500 constituent companies sample frame in the years 1991 to 2006. This examination follows the predictive performance of the representative agent model of Rabin (2002b) [Inference by believers in the law of small numbers. The Quarterly Journal of Economics. 117(3).p.775 816] and Barberis, Shleifer, and Vishny (1998) [A model of investor sentiment. Journal of Financial Economics. 49. p.307 343] for an investor who might be under the influence of the law of small numbers, or another closely related cognitive bias known as the gambler s fallacy. Chapters 4 and 5 present two related empirical studies on this broad theme. In chapter 4, for successive sequences of annualised quarterly earnings changes over a twelve-quarter horizon of quarterly earnings increases or falls, I ask whether the models can capture the likelihood of reversion. Secondly, I ask, what is the representative investor s response to observed sequences of quarterly earnings changes for my S&P500 constituent sample companies? I find a far greater frequency of extreme persistent quarterly earnings rises (of nine quarters and more) than falls and hence a more muted reaction to their occurrence from the market. Extreme cases of persistent quarterly earnings falls are far less common than extreme rises and are more salient in their impact on stock prices. I find evidence suggesting that information discreteness; that is the frequency with which small information about stock value filters into the market is one of the factors that foment earnings momentum in stocks. However, information discreteness does not subsume the impact of sequences of annualised quarterly earnings changes, or earnings streakiness as a strong candidate that drives earnings momentum in stock returns in my S&P500 constituent stock sample. Therefore, earnings streakiness and informational discreteness appear to have separate and additive effects in driving momentum in stock price. In chapter 5, the case for the informativeness of the streaks of earnings surprises is further strengthened. This is done by examining the explanatory power of streaks of earnings surprises in a shorter horizon of three days around the period when the effect of the nature of earnings news is most intense in the stock market. Even in shorter windows, investors in S&P500 companies seem to be influenced by the lengthening of negative and positive streaks of earnings surprises over the twelve quarters of quarterly earnings announcement I study here. This further supports my thesis that investors underreact to sequences of changes in their expectations about stock returns. This impact is further strengthened by high information uncertainties in streaks of positive earnings surprise. However, earnings streakiness is one discrete and separable element in the resolution of uncertainty around equity value for S&P 500 constituent companies. Most of the proxies for earnings surprise show this behaviour especially when market capitalisation, age and cash flow act as proxies of information uncertainty. The influence of the gambler s fallacy on the representative investor in the presence of information uncertainty becomes more pronounced when I examine increasing lengths of streaks of earnings surprises. The presence of post earnings announcement drift in my large capitalised S&P500 constituents sample firms confirms earnings momentum to be a pervasive phenomenon which cuts across different tiers of the stock markets including highly liquid stocks, followed by many analysts, which most large funds would hold.

This dissertation investigates how grammatical functions in transitive sentences (i.e., `subject' and `direct object') are distributed in written Swedish discourse with respect to morphosyntactic as well as semantic and referential (i.e., prominence-based) information. It also investigates how assignment of grammatical functions during on-line comprehension of transitive sentences in Swedish is influenced by interactions between morphosyntactic and prominence-based information. In the dissertation, grammatical functions are assumed to express role-semantic (e.g., Actor and Undergoer) and discourse-pragmatic (e.g., Topic and Focus) functions of NP arguments. Grammatical functions correlate with prominence-based information that is associated with these functions (e.g., animacy and definiteness). Because of these correlations, both prominence-based and morphosyntactic information are assumed to serve as argument interpretation cues during on-line comprehension. These cues are utilized in a probabilistic fashion. The weightings, interplay and availability of them are reflected in their distribution in language use, as shown in corpus data. The dissertation investigates these assumptions by using various methods in a triangulating fashion. The first contribution of the dissertation is an ERP (event-related brain potentials) experiment that investigates the ERP response to grammatical function reanalysis, i.e., a revision of a tentative grammatical function assignment, during on-line comprehension of transitive sentences. Grammatical function reanalysis engenders a response that correlates with the (re-)assignment of thematic roles to the NP arguments. This suggests that the comprehension of grammatical functions involves assigning role-semantic functions to the NPs. The second contribution is a corpus study that investigates the distribution of prominence-based, verb-semantic and morphosyntactic features in transitive sentences in written discourse. The study finds that overt morphosyntactic information about grammatical functions is used more frequently when the grammatical functions cannot be determined on the basis of word order or animacy. This suggests that writers are inclined to accommodate the understanding of their recipients by more often providing formal markers of grammatical functions in potentially ambiguous sentences. The study also finds that prominence features and their interactions with verb-semantic features are systematically distributed across grammatical functions and therefore can predict these functions with a high degree of confidence. The third contribution consists of three computational models of incremental grammatical function assignment. These models are based upon the distribution of argument interpretation cues in written discourse. They predict processing difficulties during grammatical function assignment in terms of on-line change in the expectation of different grammatical function assignments over the presentation of sentence constituents. The most prominent model predictions are qualitatively consistent with reading times in a self-paced reading experiment of Swedish transitive sentences. These findings indicate that grammatical function assignment draws upon statistical regularities in the distribution of morphosyntactic and prominence-based information in language use. Processing difficulties in the comprehension of Swedish transitive sentences can therefore be predicted on the basis of corpus distributions.