Background: A public offering or "Initial Public Offering" means that a company is transferred from being unlisted to trading on a stock exchange. When a company is listed, the company needs to establish a prospectus. This document is meant to give potential investors information about the operations in the company with both historical financial data and more descriptive information. The prospectus should therefore contain all necessary information needed to make a well-founded assessment about the IPO. Historically IPOs have tended to overperform in the short term and have an underperformance in the long run compared with already listed companies. Purpose: The purpose of the study was to identify the general return patterns for IPOs in Sweden in both short-term and in the long run. The study also aims to investigate whether the company's prospectus published in connection with the IPO can explain these yield patterns. Methodology: The general return patterns have been calculated using the Buy and Hold Abnormal Return (BHAR) and Cumulative Abnormal Return (CAR) methods. The raw returns shown by the IPOs have been adjusted to the chosen reference index to determine whether an over- or underperformance has taken place. In addition, several multiple regressions have been conducted to determine whether selected variables can explain the abnormal return shown by IPOs. Conclusion: The study results shows that the initial return on the first day of the 2007-2014 period was an average of 2.82% for the study's selection of 45 public offerings from Stockholmsbörsen and First North. The IPOs showed a negative trend with an underperformance in the first three months. The result for the short term is thus not consistent with previous research in IPOs. In the long run, however, the study's selection shows an underperformance of -12.85% measured with BHAR and -24.13% with CAR. This result is consistent with previous studies in other markets. Furthermore, only one of the selected variables, the initial return, could to some extent (16.8%) explain the abnormal return for the first month. The other variables were not statistically significant in any of the studied periods. / Bakgrund: En börsintroduktion eller "Initial Public Offering" innebär att ett företag övergår från att vara onoterad till att handlas på en aktiebörs. I samband med att ett företag börsnoteras behöver företaget upprätta ett prospekt. Detta dokument ska ge potentiella investerare information om verksamheten av både beskrivande kvalitet och historiska finansiella data som kan kvantifieras av investeraren. Ett prospekt bör således innehålla all nödvändig information för att göra en välgrundad bedömning. Vidare har börsintroduktioner historiskt visat att dessa tenderar att överprestera på kort sikt och underpresterar på lång sikt jämfört med redan börsnoterade företag. Syfte: Syftet med studien var att identifiera generella avkastningsmönster för börsintroduktioner på kort- och lång sikt i Sverige. Studien ämnar även att undersöka om företagets prospekt som publiceras i samband med börsintroduktionen kan förklara dessa avkastningsmönster. Metod: De generella avkastningsmönstrena har beräknats med hjälp av metoden Buy and Hold Abnormal Return (BHAR) och Cumulative Abnormal Return (CAR). Avkastningen som börsintroduktionerna uppvisar har justerats till valt referensindex för att avgöra huruvida en över- eller underprestation har skett. Vidare har flertal multipla regressioner genomförts för att fastställa om utvalda variabler kan förklara den abnormala avkastningen som börsintroduktioner uppvisar. Slutsats: Studiens resultat visar att den initiala avkastningen första dagen under perioden 2007–2014 var i genomsnitt 2,82% för studiens urval på 45 stycken börsintroduktioner på Stockholmsbörsen och First North. Börsintroduktionerna visade på en negativ trend med en underprestation de första tre månaderna. Resultatet för kort sikt överensstämmer således inte med tidigare forskning inom börsintroduktioner. På lång sikt däremot uppvisar studiens urval en underavkastning på -12,85% mätt med BHAR och -24,13% med CAR. Detta resultat överensstämmer med tidigare studier på andra marknader. Vidare kunde endast en av de utvalda variablerna, den initiala avkastningen, till en viss grad (16,8%) förklara den abnormala avkastningen på en månad. De andra variablerna var inte statistiskt signifikanta i någon av undersökningsperioderna.

This study empirically examines the impact of monetary policy on economic growth in three East African countries (Uganda, Kenya and Tanzania). The role of monetary policy in promoting economic growth remains empirically an open research question, as both the empirical and theoretical underpinnings are not universal, and the results remain varying, inconsistent, and inconclusive. This study may be the first of its kind to examine in detail the impact of monetary policy on economic growth in Uganda, Kenya and Tanzania – using the autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) bounds-testing approach. This study used two proxies of monetary policy, namely, money supply and interest rate, to examine this linkage. The results were found to differ from country to country and over time. The Uganda empirical results reveal that money supply has a positive impact on economic growth, both in the short run and in the long run. However, interest rate was found to have a positive impact on economic growth only in the short run. In the long run, interest rate has no significant impact on economic growth. In Kenya, both short-run and long-run empirical results support monetary policy neutrality, implying that monetary policy has no effect on economic growth – both in the short run and in the long run. The results from Tanzania also reveal no impact of monetary policy on economic growth in the long run – irrespective of the proxy used to measure monetary policy. However, the short-run results only reveal no impact of monetary policy on economic growth only when the interest rate is used as a proxy for monetary policy. When money supply is used to measure monetary policy, a negative relationship between monetary policy and economic growth is found to dominate. Overall, the study finds that monetary policy is only relevant for economic growth in Uganda and only when money supply is used as monetary policy variable. Therefore this study recommends a money supply based monetary policy framework for Uganda. The study findings also suggest that monetary policy may not be a panacea for economic growth in Kenya and Tanzania. / Economics / M. Com. (Economics)

Made available in DSpace on 2016-03-15T19:26:16Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 Helene Albuquerque Rebelo 1.pdf: 1046658 bytes, checksum: 341e6608b9c7f265ac5e1303f07c7667 (MD5) Previous issue date: 2014-10-23 / Fundo Mackenzie de Pesquisa / The dissertation examines the behavior of the exchange rate in the long term from the perspective of the classical model of purchasing power parity theory (PPP), developed empirically by Cassel and the alternative model proposed by Basso originating from the Marxist benchmark, which emphasizes prices and productivities to determine the exchange rate. The exchange rate behavior is examined for three countries over the 1977-2006 period, with annual frequency. To test the models, it was used the consumer price index (CPI), the GDP, the value-added price index and gross producer price index (EU KLEMS database). The essay uses the causality tests of Johansen, the Dickey-Fuller and Phillips-Perron unit root tests, the VAR (vector autoregression) and VEC (vector error correction) models and performing a projection with the Model Confidence Set. It is ascertained that PPP was not supported for any of the 12 models generated. In Basso s approach, the 48 models generated, cointegration was found in only four models, therefore it is not possible to generalize the new model. / A dissertação examina o comportamento da taxa de câmbio no longo prazo sobre a perspectiva do modelo clássico da paridade do poder de compra (PPC) ou purchasing power parity theory (PPP), desenvolvido empiricamente por Cassel e do modelo alternativo proposto por Basso oriundo do referencial marxista, enfatizando preços e produtividades para determinar a taxa de câmbio. Examina-se o comportamento da taxa de câmbio para três países no período de 1977 a 2006, com frequência anual. Para testar os modelos, foram empregados o índice de preço ao consumidor (IPC), o deflator do PIB, o deflator dos valores agregados e o deflator de produção total (base de dados EU KLEMS). O trabalho utiliza o teste de causalidade de Johansen, os testes de raiz unitária de Dickey e Fuller e Phillips-Perron, os modelos de VAR (vetores autorregressivos) e VEC (vetores autorregressivos com correção de erro) e é feito projeção com Model Confidence Set. Constata-se que a PPP não foi corroborada para nenhum dos 12 modelos gerados. Na abordagem de Basso, dos 48 modelos gerados, encontrou-se cointegração apenas em quatro, portanto, não é possível generalizar o novo modelo.

Die vorliegende Studie entstand, um die langfristige Renditeentwicklung polnischer Aktien nach Börseneinführungen und Kapitalerhöhungen in den Jahren 1994-2008 zu untersuchen. Ein besonderes Augenmerk richtet sich dabei auf die Erkennung und Analyse der performancerelevanten Unternehmenseigenschaften sowie auf die Erklärung der festgestellten Marktanomalien mit Hilfe ausgewählter Modellansätze. Die empirischen Analysen wurden aus dem Blickwinkel eines Kleininvestors durchgeführt, wodurch die meisten Ergebnisse, neben dem wissenschaftlichen Wert, eine hohe Praxisrelevanz besitzen. Die Untersuchung von insgesamt 263 Börseneinführungen ergab, dass die Emissionsrenditen der meisten Aktien zwar signifikant positiv waren, längerfristig bauten sie sich aber ab. Am Ende des 36-sten Notierungsmonats wiesen sie insgesamt eine starke Underperformance auf. Dabei entwickelten sich die langfristigen marktbereinigten IPO-Renditen in den 90-er Jahren wesentlich schlechter, als nach der Jahrhundertwende. Die Analyse des Kursverhaltens nach 157 Kapitalerhöhungen durch Aktien- und Bezugsrechtsemissionen zeigte, dass innerhalb der dreijährigen Halteperiode die Performance der betrachteten Stichprobe von der Rendite des Gesamtmarktes nur geringfügig abweichte. Dabei entwickelten sich die Kurse von Aktien der kleineren Firmen wesentlich schlechter, als die Aktienkurse der hochkapitalisierten Unternehmen. / This study investigates the long-term stock return after initial public offerings and seasoned equity offerings occurred between 1994 and 2008. A particular attention is being paid to the identification and analysis of performance-relevant issuing firm characteristics and the explanation of the identified market anomalies by means of the preselected explanatory models. Since the empirical study was carried out from the small investor’s perspective, the majority of the obtained results provide not only a considerable scientific value, but also a strong relevance to the actual practice. The study examined 263 IPOs of common stocks and found an overwhelmingly positive initial return. However, this return vanished gradually on the long run, resulting in a high overall underperformance in 36 months after the first listing. In this respect, it is remarkable that the long-term returns of the IPO-stocks issued in the 1990s proved considerably lower than of those placed after 2000. The examination of the long-term stock price behaviour after 157 SEOs reveals only a tiny difference between the performance of the sample and the overall market return. Noteworthy is however the fact that equity issues conducted by smaller firms led usually to significantly poorer stock performance, than when equity was offered by large capitalized companies.

One of the main tenets of finance is diversification. Investors choose their portfolios so as to diversify away their idiosyncratic risk. In four essays included into this dissertation the implications of less than perfect diversification on investors’ performance and asset pricing are investigated. In Essay I we examine one particular instance in which diversification may play a role in a non-portfolio type of investment: the IPO. In an IPO, a set of potentially non-diversified investors – the existing shareholders – reduce their holdings of a company, listing the company and selling part of its shares. Our contribution is to show how portfolio diversification of controlling investors in private companies affects the IPO process. We demonstrate that companies sold by more diversified shareholders are less likely to be taken public, but when doing so they are priced more favourably. In Essays II and III we investigate the impact of incomplete diversification and imperfect risk-sharing on asset returns. Our argument is that the smaller shareholder base a firm has, the larger the fraction of company idiosyncratic risk on average its investors have to carry, and the higher return they would demand for that. We demonstrate that there is a negative and significant relationship between companies’ shareholder base and stock returns as well as between changes in shareholder base and stock returns. This effect is more pronounced for younger companies, but remains significant for seasoned companies as well. Applying our analysis to corporate events we demonstrate that abnormal performance following the repurchase can be partially explained by the reduction in the shareholders base resulting from repurchase. In Essay IV I investigate the motives behind one of the most puzzling examples of investors’ underdiversification – the local bias. Contrary to the predictions of classical financial theories, investors on aggregate overweight stock of proximate companies in their portfolios. I demonstrate that being placed in new community, individual investors not only soon become biased towards companies with establishments in this new locality, but they also obtain superior returns from these investments. Investing into the local stocks, therefore, is to a large degree rational. / Diss. Stockholm : Handelshögskolan, 2005 S. ii-vi: sammanfattning, s. 1-134: 4 uppsatser

Stocks, Bonds, and Long-Run Consumption Risks. Bansal and Yaron (2004) show that long-run consumption risks and time-varying economic uncertainty in conjunction with recursive preferences can account for important features of equity markets. I bring the model to the term structure of interest rates and show that a calibrated version of the model can simultaneously explain properties of bonds and equities. Specifically, the model accounts for deviations from the expectations hypothesis, the upward sloping nominal yield curve, and the predictive power of the nominal yield spread. However, an estimation of the model using Simulated Method of Moments yields less convincing results and illustrates the difficulty of precisely estimating parameters of the model. Real (nominal) interest rates in the model are positively (negatively) correlated with consumption growth and real stock returns move inversely with inflation. The cyclicality of nominal interest rates and yield spreads is shown to depend on the relative values of the elasticity of intertemporal substitution and the correlation between real consumption growth and inflation. The “Fed-model” and the Changing Correlation of Stock and Bond Returns: An Equilibrium Approach. This paper presents an equilibrium model that provides a rational explanation for two features of data that have been considered puzzling: The positive relation between US dividend yields and nominal interest rates, often called the Fed-model, and the time-varying correlation of US stock and bond returns. Key ingredients are time-varying first and second moments of consumption growth, inflation, and dividend growth in conjunction with Epstein-Zin and Weil recursive preferences. Historically in the US, inflation has signaled low future consumption growth. The representative agent therefore dislikes positive inflation shocks and demands a positive risk premium for holding assets that are poor inflation hedges, such as equity and nominal bonds. As a result, risk premiums on equity and nominal bonds comove positively through their exposure to macroeconomic volatility. This generates a positive correlation between dividend yields and nominal yields and between stock and bond returns. High levels of macro volatility in the late 1970s and early 1980s caused stock and bond returns to comove strongly. The subsequent moderation in aggregate economic risk has brought correlations lower. The model is able to produce correlations that can switch sign by including the covariances between consumption growth, inflation, and dividend growth as state variables. International Bond Risk Premia. We extend Cochrane and Piazzesi (2005, CP) to international bond markets by constructing forecasting factors for bond excess returns across different countries. While the international evidence for predictability is weak using Fama and Bliss (1987) regressions, we document that local CP factors have significant predictive power. We also construct a global CP factor and provide evidence that it predicts bond returns with high R2 across countries. The local and global factors are jointly significant when included as regressors, which suggests that variation in bond excess returns are driven by country-specific factors and a common global factor. Shocks to US bond risk premia seem to be particularly important determinants for international bond premia. Motivated by these results, we estimate a parsimonious no-arbitrage affine term structure model in which risk premia are driven by one local and one global CP factor. We find that international bond risk premia are driven by a local slope factor and a world interest rate level factor.

This paper analyzes and distinguishes the role and importance of the shocks related to the aggregate demand and aggregate supply on the behavior of the Peruvian inflation during the period 1997:1-2009:2. We use the methodology based on structural vector autoregressive (SVAR) models using a long-run identification based on Blanchard and Quah (1989) which allows to obtain the historical decomposition of the annual inflation. Unlike Salas (2009), this paper uses a more simple model of aggregate demand and aggregate supply, and a larger sample. The results show that the behavior of inflation was largely explained for shocks related to the aggregate demand side in comparison with aggregate supply shocks. Furthermore, the results of the variance decomposition of the prediction error show that in the short and long term, the shocks of the demand side explain around 70% and 60% of the movements of the inflation. The results are robust to the inclusion of different variables in the set of information. / Este documento distingue y explica el rol y la importancia de los choques de demanda y oferta agregada en el comportamiento de la inflación peruana durante el periodo 1997:1-2009:2. Para esto se utiliza la metodología de Vectores Autoregresivos Estructurales (SVAR, por sus siglas en inglés) con una descomposición de largo plazo propuesta por Blanchard y Quah (1989), lo que permite obtener la descomposición histórica de la inflación anual. A diferencia de Salas (2009), el presente trabajo se basa en un modelo simple de demanda y oferta agregada, y una muestra más amplia. Los resultados muestran que el comportamiento de la inflación obedeció en mayor medida a choques de demanda agregada en comparación con los choques de oferta agregada. Los resultados de la descomposición de la varianza del error de predicción muestran que, en el corto y largo plazo, los choques de demanda agregada explican alrededor del 70% y 60% de los movimientos de la inflación. Los resultados son robustos a la inclusión de diferentes variables dentro del conjunto de información.

Die vorliegende Dissertation zu makroökonomischen Themen beinhaltet einen einleitenden Literaturüberblick, drei eigenständige und voneinander unabhängige Kapitel sowie einen technischen Anhang. In Kapitel zwei wird ein Zwei-Länder Modell einer Währungsunion betrachtet, in dem die gemeinsame Zentralbank die Wohlfahrt der gesamten Währungsunion maximieren will, während die zwei fiskalpolitischen Akteure vergleichbare, aber minimal abweichende länderspezifische Verlustfunktionen zu minimieren suchen. Das Konkurrenzverhalten dieser drei Institutionen wird in sieben spieltheoretischen Szenarien analysiert. Beim Vergleich einer homogenen mit einer heterogenen Währungsunion lassen sich für letztere deutlich höhere Wohlfahrtsverluste relativ zum sozialen Optimum feststellen. Die Szenarien mit den geringsten Wohlfahrtsverlusten sind Kooperation aller drei Institutionen und eine Stackelberg-Führerschaft der Zentralbank. Kapitel drei untersucht, inwieweit das Verhältnis von Immobilienpreise zum Bruttoinlandsprodukt als langfristig konstant und nur auf Grund von Produktivitätsschocks von seinem Mittelwert abweichend angesehen werden kann. Hierzu wird ein Zwei-Sektoren RBC-Modell für den Immobiliensektor und einen Konsumgütersektor erstellt. Es wird gezeigt, dass ein antizipierter, zukünftiger Schock auf das Produktivitätswachstum im Konsumgütersektor eine sofortige, deutliche Erhöhung der Immobilienpreise relativ zum Bruttoinlandsprodukt zur Folge hat. In Kapitel vier wird gefragt, ob ein typisches Neukeynesianisches Modell "sechs große Rätsel der internationalen Makroökonomie" erklären kann. Die sechs Rätsel werden in Bedingungen für erste und zweite Momente übersetzt und fünf wesentliche Modellparameter geschätzt. Das Ergebnis ist erstaunlich gut: unter anderem können die empirischen Beobachtungen zur Heimatpräferenz wiedergegeben und die Schwankungsbreite des realen Wechselkurses deutlich erhöht werden. Handelskosten sind für dieses Ergebnis ein wesentlicher Faktor. / This dissertation consists of an introductory chapter with an extended literature review, three chapters on individual and independent research topics, and an appendix. Chapter 2 uses a two-country model with a central bank maximizing union-wide welfare and two fiscal authorities minimizing comparable, but slightly different country-wide losses. The rivalry between the three authorities is analyzed in seven static games. Comparing a homogeneous with a heterogeneous monetary union, welfare losses relative to the social optimum are found to be significantly larger in a heterogeneous union. The best-performing scenarios are cooperation between all authorities and monetary leadership. The goal of Chapter 3 is to investigate whether or not it is possible to explain the house price to GDP ratio and the house price to stock price ratio as being generally constant, deviating from its respective mean only because of shocks to productivity? Building a two-sector RBC model for residential and non-residential capital, it is shown that an anticipated future shock to productivity growth in the non-residential sector leads to an immediate large increase in house prices relative to GDP. In Chapter 4, it is asked whether a typical New Keynesian Open Economy Model is able to explain "Six Major Puzzles in International Macroeconomics". After translating the six puzzles into moment conditions for the model, I estimate five parameters to fit the moment conditions implied by the data. Given the simplicity of the model, its fit is surprisingly good: among other things, the home bias puzzles can easily be replicated, the exchange rate volatility is formidably increased and the exchange rate correlation pattern is relatively close to realistic values. Trade costs are one important ingredient for this finding.

Esta tesis doctoral es una colección de tres artículos. Los capítulos 1 y 2, co-autorados con Joachim Voth, investigan por qué Europa en 1700 ya era más rico que el resto del mundo y por qué Inglaterra fue el primer país en industrializarse. Encontramos que las dinámicas de la población, en lugar del crecimiento de la productividad, fueron los promotores más importantes del desarrollo económico de Europa Occidental durante la temprana edad moderna (1450-1700). Calibramos un modelo probabilístico para representar Inglaterra en 1700 y encontramos que ingresos iniciales más altos unidos a limitaciones de fertilidad aumentaron la probabilidad de industrialización. En el tercer capítulo, presento un nuevo hecho estilizado y analizo su contribución al sesgo del cambio tecnológico hacia los trabajadores más cualificados: El porcentaje de trabajadores cualificados en la producción intermedia está altamente correlacionado con la proporción de trabajo cualificado en la producción final. Esto genera un efecto multiplicador que refuerza la demanda de trabajo cualificado a lo largo de la cadena de producción. El efecto es importante, explica más de un tercio del aumento de la demanda de trabajadores cualificados en la industria manufacturera de EE.UU. / This dissertation is a collection of three essays. Chapters 1 and 2, co-authored with Joachim Voth, investigate the question why Europe in 1700 was ahead of the rest of the world and why England was the first country to industrialize. We find that population dynamics, rather than productivity growth, were the most important drivers for Western Europe to overtake China in the early modern period (1450-1700). We calibrate a probabilistic model to match England in 1700 and find that higher initial per capita incomes together with fertility limitation increased its industrialization probabilities. In the third chapter, I present a novel stylized fact and analyze its contribution to the skill bias of technical change: The share of skilled labor embedded in intermediate inputs correlates strongly with the skill share employed in final production. This delivers a multiplier that reinforces skill demand along the production chain. The effect is large, accounting for more than one third of the observed skill upgrading in U.S. manufacturing.

利用1995-2015年間美國房地產投資信託基金（REIT）的176個初次公開發行為樣本，本研究分析了初步公開說明書（Form S-11）資訊與REITs上市後之當天，短期和長期表現之間的關係。其中，本文著重於探討四個特別領域的相關資訊，包括管理結構，承銷商聲譽，IPO閉鎖期及管理團隊品質。 實證結果顯示，初步公開說明書（Form S-11）包含有價值的資訊，有助於REIT IPO 投資人作投資評估之使用。其中，IPO閉鎖期大於等於產業標準180天的REITs，其在上市後6個月和12個月期間的報酬率高於IPO閉鎖期小於180天的REITs。此外，與過去的IPO研究結果相似，由知名承銷商所銷售之REIT IPOs 在初次公開發行後的短期及長期表現平均優於由知名度較低之承銷商所銷售的REIT IPOs。 然而，儘管過去與REIT相關的研究普遍偏好內部管理，本研究之實證結果支持外部管理的模式。其中，實證結果顯示外部管理的REITs在初次公開發行後的短期及長期表現平均優於內部管理的REITs。 / Using a sample of 176 US REIT IPOs from 1995 to 2015, this study examines the relationship between information provided on the preliminary IPO prospectus (form S-11) and post-IPO initial, short-term and long-term performance of REITs. In particular, this paper focuses on information related to four specific areas: management structure, underwriter reputation, lock-up period, and management quality. The findings of this study suggest that form S-11 carries valuable information, and is useful to investors in evaluating REIT IPOs. The regression results indicate that REIT IPOs with a lock-up period that is at least as long as the industry standard, on average, earn higher post-IPO returns 6-month and 12-month following the IPO date. Moreover, consistent with prior IPO studies, offerings underwritten by prestigious underwriters, on average, yield better post-IPO performance than IPOs underwritten by less reputable underwriters. Yet, unlike prior REIT studies, the findings of this paper tend to favor the external management structure. The results from the sub-sample imply externally managed REITs, on average, earn higher post-IPO short-term and long-term returns than their internally managed counterpart.