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1	Vícerovnicové ekonometrické modely národních ekonomik / Econometric models of national economies Hála, Petr January 2018 (has links) The present thesis deals with multiple econometric equations systems which might provide a useful insight into the national economy modelling. It takes into account possible pitfalls of common practices. It introduces the theory and estimation methods of multiple econometric equations systems. It also discusses the equality of savings and investment and the theory of money. Furthermore, it briefly analyses Klein's model I from a theoretical point of view and uses the three-step least squares method in order to estimate it. Partial modifications of this model are suggested and implemented. The quality of the competitive models is evaluated employing the predictive criterion. Consequently, the canonical NK DSGE model is derived and subjected to theoretical criticism. The thesis debates doubts on the relevance of the NK IS curve and argues that Lucas's critique is still valid. A generalized method of moments is used to implement the NK DSGE model. Finally, this model is briefly compared with Klein's model I.
2	La politique monétaire dans les modèles économétriques : primat de la théorie sur l'empirie / The monetary policy in econometric models : primacy of the theory over the empirics Attioui, Abdelali 04 December 2014 (has links) En s'appuyant sur les limites de l'économétrie mises en évidence dans les débats sur la politique monétaire depuis les années 1960, cette thèse s'attache à montrer le primat de la théorie sur l'empirie et que l'économétrie ne peut pas être décisive dans la remise en cause de la théorie. Nous adoptons une démarche basée sur des arguments épistémologiques pour montrer que ces débat dépassent le clivage théorie/empirie et intègrent une différence de vision quant à l'utilité d'un modèle empirique. Le programme de recherche de la Commission Cowles s'est constitué autour d'une articulation particulière de trois éléments fondamentaux. Un référentiel théorique issu de la Théorie Générale de Keynes, un modèle formel s'appuyant sur le relatif consensus autour du schéma IS-LM et des techniques économétriques pour estimer les paramètres de ce modèle. C'est la nature et le degré d'interdépendance entre les trois éléments ci-dessus qui sont remis en cause par les monétaristes et les tenants de la modélisation VAR. Alors que les keynésiens établissent une nette distinction entre le modèle théorique et le modèle estimé, pour les monétaristes cette distinction n'est pas claire et ne leur semble pas pertinente. Sims (1980) reproche aux modèles structurels de la Commission Cowles de comporter trop d'hypothèses théoriques non testées empiriquement. Il propose de soumettre les hypothèses d'exogénéité à des tests économétriques directs et précis. Toutefois, l'indétermination empirique de la causalité dans un modèle VAR, liée au problème de l'équivalence observationnelle (Basmann, 1965), impose l'adoption d'un schéma d'identification sur la base d'a priori théorique pour identifier les chocs de politique monétaire. Ceci constitue un cas extrême du problème de la sous-détermination de la théorie par les données soulevé par la thèse de Duhem-Quine (Duhem, 1906, Quine, 1951). De plus, Hoover (2009) note que l'analyse des réponses impulsionnelles dans un VAR fournit un bon exemple de ce que Cartwright (2007) qualifie de ‘'contrefactuel imposteur''. Le développement des Modèles à Correction d'Erreurs et des modèles VAR cointégrés a permis de renouveler l'analyse des propositions monétaristes. Toutefois, les liens entre les propositions de cointégration, les notions d'équilibre de long terme et de déséquilibre de court terme sont rarement interprétés dans le cadre d'un modèle théorique rigoureux et complètement spécifié. Pour Faust et Leeper (1994), l'identification d'un modèle par l'imposition de contraintes peut s'avérer non fructueuse lorsque la théorie économique n'établit pas de distinction claire entre les dynamiques de court et de long terme. Faust et Whiteman (1997) relèvent l'absence d'un critère d'arbitrage dans ces démarches en présence de conflit entre le principe théorique et l'ajustement aux données, sinon une subordination de la théorie à l'économétrie. Parallèlement au problème de l'identification, la critique de Lucas (1976) constitue la seconde critique fondamentale à laquelle se heurtent les modèles économétriques. Lucas (1980, 1986) adopte une nouvelle posture épistémologique en considérant le modèle théorique comme une ‘'fiction'' et non plus comme un ensemble de propositions sur le comportement d'une économie réelle. Il défend l'idée d'une explication du cycle en termes de discipline de l'équilibre (Lucas, 1977). Les modèles DSGE, qui constituant les modèles de base de la Nouvelle Synthèse, sont fortement influencés par la méthodologie lucasienne et s'inscrivent dans la continuité des modèles RBC (Taouil, 2011). Benati et Surico (2009) ont établi la supériorité des DSGE par rapport aux VAR structurels (SVAR). Cet échec des SVAR est la conséquence directe des restrictions inter-équations imposées par l'hypothèse des anticipations rationnelles, tel que cela a été initialement soulevé par la critique de Sargent (1979). / The purpose of this thesis is to show the primacy of the theory over the empirics and prove that econometrics cannot be decisive to question the theory. For this, we rely on the limits of econometrics highlighted in discussions of monetary policy since the 1960s. We adopt an approach based on epistemological arguments to show that these debates go beyond the cleavage theory/empirics and that they integrate a difference of vision as to the usefulness of an empirical model. The research program of the Cowles Commission was formed around a particular articulation of three fundamental elements: a theoretical repository of Keynes' General Theory, a formal model based on the relative consensus on the IS-LM diagram and econometric techniques to estimate the parameters of this model. It is the nature and the degree of interdependence between these three elements that are contested by the monetarists and supporters of the VAR modeling. While Keynesians make a clear distinction between the theoretical model and the estimated model, this distinction is not clear and does not seem relevant to the monetarists. Sims (1980) criticizes the structural models of the Cowles Commission for including too many theoretical hypotheses empirically untested. He proposes to review the exogeneity assumptions through direct and specific econometric tests. However, the empirical indeterminacy of causality in a VAR, linked to the problem of observational equivalence (Basmann, 1965), requires the adoption of an identification scheme on the basis of a theoretical a priori to identify the monetary policy shocks. This is an extreme case of the problem of under-determination of theory by data raised by the Duhem-Quine thesis (Duhem 1906, Quine, 1951). Furthermore, Hoover (2009) notes that the impulse response analysis in a VAR provides a good example of what Cartwright (2007) calls “counterfactual impostor”. The development of the Error Correction Models and cointegrated VAR models has renewed the analysis of monetarist proposals. However, the links between the proposals for cointégration, the notions of long-term equilibrium and short term disequilibrium are rarely interpreted in the context of a rigorous and fully specified theoretical model. According to Faust and Leeper (1994), the identification of a model by imposing constraints may not be fruitful when economic theory does not clearly distinguish the short-term and long-term dynamics. Faust and Whiteman (1997) note the absence of an arbitration criterion in these approaches apparent in the presence of conflict between the theoretical principle and the adjustment to the data; otherwise subordination of the theory to the econometrics. Alongside the issue of identification, the Lucas critique (1976) is the second fundamental criticism facing the use of econometric models. Lucas (1980, 1986) adopts a new epistemological posture considering the theoretical model as a 'fiction' and not as a set of proposals on the behavior of a real economy. He supports the idea of explaining the cycle in terms of discipline of equilibrium (Lucas, 1977). The DSGE models, that constitute the fundamental models of the New Synthesis theory, are strongly influenced by Lucas' methodology and are a continuity of the RBC models (Taouil, 2011). Benati and Surico (2009) demonstrated the superiority of a DSGE model with respect to a structural VAR (SVAR). This failure is a direct consequence of inter-equation restrictions imposed by the rational expectations hypothesis, initially raised by Sargent's critics (1979). Politique monétaire Critique de Lucas Identification Causalité Modèles DSGE Modèles VAR Monetary policy Lucas critique Identification Causality DSGE models VAR models
3	Essays on the effects of fiscal and monetary policy Lindé, Jesper January 1999 (has links) This thesis contains four essays, which studies the macroeconomic effects of fiscal and monetary policy quantitatively. The first essay investigates whether Swedish postwar business cycles have been generated by domestic or foreign shocks and finds that they are about equally important. In the second essay, the effects of government budget deficits on interest rates in Sweden are studied in a small open economy framework. The empirical results, which have high power due to very large swings in deficits and interest rates, provide support that larger deficits produce higher interest rates and thus give support against the ricardian view. The third essay seeks to identify optimal social insurance and redistribution levels in Sweden and the U.S. with respect to temporary and permanent idiosyncratic productivity risks. The results indicate that Sweden should reduce the social security level while the U.S. should approximately maintain the current level. In the last essay, the small sample properties of a well-known statistical test for the Lucas critique - the super exogeneity test - is studied in a general equilibrium environment. The results indicate that the super exogeneity test do not have sufficient power in small samples. / Diss. Stockholm : Handelshögsk. Fiscal policy Real business cycle models Small open economy Ricardian equivalence Interest rates Idiosyncratic risk Lucas critique Monetary policy Insurance Penningpolitik Economics Nationalekonomi
4	Política monetária no limite inferior da taxa de juros Rahal, Martin Klos 16 February 2016 (has links) Submitted by Martin Klos Rahal (martin.rahal@gmail.com) on 2016-02-29T19:47:03Z No. of bitstreams: 1 Dissertacao Martin.pdf: 376635 bytes, checksum: 21659dc603eb69317a533e1dadeb9b81 (MD5) / Approved for entry into archive by Renata de Souza Nascimento (renata.souza@fgv.br) on 2016-02-29T21:17:33Z (GMT) No. of bitstreams: 1 Dissertacao Martin.pdf: 376635 bytes, checksum: 21659dc603eb69317a533e1dadeb9b81 (MD5) / Made available in DSpace on 2016-03-01T11:36:54Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 Dissertacao Martin.pdf: 376635 bytes, checksum: 21659dc603eb69317a533e1dadeb9b81 (MD5) Previous issue date: 2016-02-16 / A situação conhecida como 'Zero Lower Bound' ocorre quando a taxa de juros de curto prazo é muito baixa e os bancos centrais perdem seu principal instrumento de política monetária para estimular a atividade econômica. Nestas condições, políticas não convencionais são utilizadas como a expansão monetária (QE) e comunicados ao mercado sobre as intenções do banco central em um horizonte maior de tempo. O Japão enfrenta esta situação desde a década de 90 e tem utilizado largamente ambas. Após uma revisão da literatura a respeito, este trabalho investiga a eficácia dos QEs praticados pelo BOJ com os dados disponíveis através de autoregressão de vetores e conclui que não há evidência estatística sobre os resultados desejados. Dada a inabilidade de melhorar o crescimento econômico com inflação dentro de uma meta, sugere que trabalhos que conclusões robustas estatisticamente devem estar sujeitos à crítica de Lucas / The zero lower bound is a situation with very low nominal overnight interest rates, where central banks don’t have their main monetary policy instrument available to stimulate economic activity. Under these conditions, non-standard policy alternatives are used such as quantitative easing and forward guidance. Japan faces this challenge since the 90s and has been largely using both, but there is still no expectation in the short term to overcome the issue. After a review on the literature, this work investigates the effectiveness of the QEs handled by BOJ with the available data through a VAR and reaches the conclusion that there is no statistical evidence about the desired outcomes. Given the inability to address the low economic growth with inflation within a target, it suggests that works that reach conclusions underpinned by statistical robustness should be subject to Lucas’ critique. Interest rates Macroeconomics Monetary policy Lucas’ critique Japan Taxas de juros Macroeconomia Política monetária Crítica de Lucas Japão Economia Taxas de juros Macroeconomia Política monetária - Japão Crítica de Lucas
5	The Social Construction of Economic Man: The Genesis, Spread, Impact and Institutionalisation of Economic Ideas Mackinnon, Lauchlan A. K. Unknown Date (has links) The present thesis is concerned with the genesis, diffusion, impact and institutionalisation of economic ideas. Despite Keynes's oft-cited comments to the effect that 'the ideas of economists and political philosophers, both when they are right and when they are wrong, are more powerful than is commonly understood'(Keynes 1936: 383), and the highly visible impact of economic ideas (for example Keynesian economics, Monetarism, or economic ideas regarding deregulation and antitrust issues) on the economic system, economists have done little to systematically explore the spread and impact of economic ideas. In fact, with only a few notable exceptions, the majority of scholarly work concerning the spread and impact of economic ideas has been developed outside of the economics literature, for example in the political institutionalist literature in the social sciences. The present thesis addresses the current lack of attention to the spread and impact of economic ideas by economists by drawing on the political institutionalist, sociological, and psychology of creativity literatures to develop a framework in which the genesis, spread, impact and institutionalisation of economic ideas may be understood. To articulate the dissemination and impact of economic ideas within economics, I consider as a case study the evolution of economists' conception of the economic agent - "homo oeconomicus." I argue that the intellectual milieu or paradigm of economics is 'socially constructed' in a specific sense, namely: (i) economic ideas are created or modified by particular individuals; (ii) economic ideas are disseminated (iii) certain economic ideas are accepted by economists and (iv) economic ideas become institutionalised into the paradigm or milieu of economics. Economic ideas are, of course, disseminated not only within economics to fellow economists, but are also disseminated externally to economic policy makers and business leaders who can - and often do - take economic ideas into account when formulating policy and building economic institutions. Important economic institutions are thereby socially constructed, in the general sense proposed by Berger and Luckmann (1966). But how exactly do economic ideas enter into this process of social construction of economic institutions? Drawing from and building on structure/agency theory (e.g. Berger and Luckmann 1966; Bourdieu 1977; Bhaskar 1979/1998, 1989; Bourdieu 1990; Lawson 1997, 2003) in the wider social sciences, I provide a framework for understanding how economic ideas enter into the process of social construction of economic institutions. Finally, I take up a methodological question: if economic ideas are disseminated, and if economic ideas have a real and constitutive impact on the economic system being modelled, does 'economic science' then accurately and objectively model an independently existing economic reality, unchanged by economic theory, or does economic theory have an interdependent and 'reflexive' relationship with economic reality, as economic reality co-exists with, is shaped by, and also shapes economic theory? I argue the latter, and consider the implications for evaluating in what sense economic science is, in fact, a science in the classical sense. The thesis makes original contributions to understanding the genesis of economic ideas in the psychological creative work processes of economists; understanding the ontological location of economic ideas in the economic system; articulating the social construction of economic ideas; and highlighting the importance of the spread of economic ideas to economic practice and economic methodology. 410401 Design Theory 349901 Political Economy 370000 Studies in Human Society 340302 History of Economic Thought 349900 Other Economics 410402 Design Innovation 360201 Public Policy 360000 Policy and Political Science 380100 Psychology 360100 Political Science 360200 Policy and Administration 370101 Social Theory 370102 Social Policy and Planning 340100 Economic Theory genesis spread diffusion impact institutionalisation economic ideas idea ideation psychology of creativity Wallas Wertheimer stage model productive thinking creative creativity process economic economics sociology social methodology methodological self-altering self-fulfilling self-denying prophecy belief reflexive reflexivity institution institutionalise institutionalised social construction Berger Luckmann Bhaskar critical realism Lawson Bordieu habitus field spread impact ideation ideational structure social structure action creativity creative economists sociology philosophy of science homo economicus homo oeconomicus economic man economic agent rational economic man man lucas critique Goodhart's law Keynes Marx Mill Hayek Hicks Samuelson Walras Jevons Arrow Debreu Samuelson Merton sociology of economics sociology of scientific knowledge SSK Holton prediction control reflexive prediction reflexivity Whitley Mackie canonization Henshel Grunberg Modigliani Morgenstern Lucas Muth Simon Blyth Hall Sikkink Hira Hood institutionalize institutionalized socialise socialisation internalise internalisation internalization socialization behaviour behavior Thomas theorem expectations stage model productive thinking evolution

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