從2003年下半年開始，面對大陸經濟結構中的不合理投資，尤其是房地產行業的過快與過大的投資，對大陸經濟正常的永續發展，帶來巨大的隱患，大陸宏觀調控連續祭出了一系列緊縮的政策，將積極財政貨幣政策改為穩健財政貨幣政策，提高利率、控制土地與信貸、首次使用浮動匯率等等措施，所有這些都對房地產行業帶來了巨大的影響。 大陸房地產市場在經過2006年至2007年的快速上漲階段之後，由於大陸祭出了緊縮的貨幣政策與限制國外熱錢進入大陸房地產的規定之後，在大部分的城市中，房價出現了下降的情況，市場購買者觀望氣氛濃烈，在這樣的整體大環境下，能否制定合理的行銷策略，打開市場的通路，在房地產市場已出現反曲點的情況下，取得優異的銷售成績，對於房地產業者來說，將顯得十分重要。本研究介紹了房地產行銷管理的概念和發展階段，分析了房地產行銷現階段所存在的問題，提出了解決這些問題的整體解決方案。 為了協助投資北京房地產的台商，適應房地產市場新的變化，認識房地產市場的規律與發展策略，及時進行策略性的調整。本研究在研究者本身對房地產行業特殊性認識經驗的基礎上，以研究者自行設計的北京房地產產業鏈與波特五力模型相整合的模型為基礎，對影響北京房地產企業策略的共通性的因素做了審慎的實證分析。運用實證分析可以有效判斷出，大陸的宏觀調控政策並不是打擊房地產，而是穩定房價，引導投資合理的佈局。 本研究運用對比分析，借鏡於國外和其他地區的房地產市場發展的經驗，從經濟學的角度為大陸房地產行業的發展正本清源，理清房地產與工業化、城市化、消費水準、人均GDP 的互動關係與發展規律，聚焦於重點分析北京地區的城市規劃、房地產總供給量與總需求量的平衡關係。對於北京高度國際化的特點，也重點分析了外資對北京房地產的重要影響。 針對企業一般策略選擇模型的分析，本研究掌握北京房地產企業的策略篩選的一般性原則。比較大陸與海外房地產企業的策略特色，希望在房地產行業發展宏觀調控、經濟泡沫等複雜的新變化之下，為北京房地產企業的策略篩選提供有價值的借鏡功能。 有鑑於全球經濟的走緩和大陸經濟的未來挑戰，北京從去年底今年初以來，其實早以推展「後京奧時代」的經濟重編計劃，包括製造業西移、品牌產業的打造、區域經濟的重劃，及有計劃的對外投資等。根據很多經濟專家的研判，在2008年北京奧運之後，大陸經濟成長勢必降溫，但還不致於泡沫化，本研究也證實這樣的看法，其主要理由有三:第一，2007年大陸出超佔GDP比重約為8.1%，所佔比率尚低，雖然受到次貸危機的衝擊可能下修，但龐大的內需市場相對受到的衝擊較小，仍可維繫經濟的持續成長，預估2009年經濟成長仍可維持在8%以上(參見附錄C)。 第二，大陸經濟規模大，相較於過去承辦奧運的小國家而言，症候群相對較小(參見附錄D)，且北京佔全中國人口只有1%左右，佔全中國GDP的比重也不到5%，在奧運後陷入不景氣的機率相對降低。第三，大陸當局政策調整的靈活度大，從過去強調嚴控通膨，轉為強調優先維持「平穩較快」的經濟成長，並維持抑制通膨的力道。同時，最近大陸放寬對中小企業融資、紡織品、成衣出口退稅重新上調等措施，均有助於緩和外部經濟情勢之逆轉。透過實證分析，本研究得出2008年北京奧運之後，北京房地產之成長力道勢必降溫，但還不致於泡沫化。 2008年北京奧運之後，大陸經濟的問題，看似房市的泡沫化，其實不是類似於日本的流動性過剩問題，本質上大陸屬於二元經濟，地方政府的創GDP工程，例如國企、形象工程、基礎建設工程等過熱，故要有一定程度的限制與保護，但民企過冷，政府誤認是流動性過剩，進行宏觀調控，反而加速二元經濟，使過冷的民企部門更冷。在北京奧運結束之後，中共把振興經濟的重心放在刺激內需。本研究預期，最有可能從大陸內需新政中受惠的產業首推動住房等產業，官方可能以補貼經濟房與雙限房(指限制售價及建築面積的房子)的做法，滿足中下階層民眾的居住需求，但北京當局只增加經濟房供給量，相關救市措施可能性不大，短期內宜先觀望。 摩根史丹利在2008年所發表的研究報告指出，中國大陸房地產市場崩潰(即價格與成交量大幅下跌)的可能性高，房地產商減價促銷的情況已經在大陸多個主要城市出現，大陸房地產市場在2008年上半年遭受嚴峻考驗，預估2008下半年也難有突破。地產企業除了出現獲利顯著下滑之外，也可能面臨嚴重的償付能力困難，但大陸房地產市場長期仍然看好。 大陸房地產在歷經五年的快速成長之後，如今已面臨調整期。2008年1至6月大陸房屋銷售面積達2兆5892萬平方公尺，比2007年同期下降7.2%。目前大陸的房價還很高，一般老百姓仍買不起房子，房價還會再大幅下調，只要房價下來之後，銷售量自然會上去，過去幾年大陸的房地產發展太快，對資源造成嚴重的排擠效應。 目前大陸營建業正處於水深火熱的境地，房地產行業發展到2008年，所面臨的最大困難就是缺錢，從所有上市房地產公司的報告就可以清礎地看出來。大陸房地產業缺錢的主要原因有四點，一是國際形勢不好，房地產商的境外融資計劃基本上全部泡湯；二是大陸國內實行緊縮貨弊政策，對房地產行業控制得更緊；三是開發商過去兩年不理智地爭地王，大搞土地儲備，錢花過了頭；四是2008年初以來，全大陸房屋成交量急遽下滑，至2008年8月底已下滑近50%，這一點是最重要的因素。 大陸房地產在未來可能出現五種情況， 一是失業率上升；二是住宅打折求售，但成交量急遽萎縮。住宅市場從來都是買漲不買跌；三是地方政府的出讓金收入大幅度減少；四是住宅開發商萎縮、虧損、被併購，甚至破產；五是銀行的金融安全，受到房貸申請人停止還款，和住宅開發商的不良貸款的雙重威脅。 目前當務之急，是要給市場信心，官方應儘快鬆綁房地產行業貸款，解除綑綁房地產行業的各種枷鎖，惟有如此，未來大陸的房地產市場才能長期看好。 房地產景氣循環，大致是5至7年，預估今年與明年都不會有大行情；不過這段時間正好是佈局的最佳時機，保留現金，逢低強進土地與良好的專案，才有可能在下一波大多頭循環時，有所表現，但好的標地物，大都需要資金、機會與時間的等待，往往是可遇而不可求。而不論是募集資金，或是組織資產管理公司，目前宜處於熱身階段，等市場更為積弱不振，得以花費更少力氣適時進場，快穩準狠兼備，成為有如獅子在草原稱霸一般的房市超級贏家。 / To correct some unhealthy development in the Mainland China’s economic structure, especially the overheated investment in the real estate industry, which could cause huge harm to Mainland China’s economy. Mainland China has started macro economic control since the second half of 2003.Those financial and monetary policies have been set to control land and credit, by using flexible-exchange rate, higher interest etc.Thus at the same time all new changes will take place in real estate market , in addition to new threats. We know it is very important for Beijing housing enterprises to understand the law of real estate and get in line with its new changes.In this paper,by combining analysis of its particularity and Porter’s five force analysis, the researcher design a model of Beijing real estate industry structure.With this model, the researcher analyzed the common factors of Beiing real estate contruction companies.We can see it is sure that the Mainland China government wants to control macro economy to keep housing price stable, and not heating the real estate market. By contrastively analyzing development experience of other countries and areas in relation to real estate, we hope we can find the solutions for the Mainland China .We also hope to identify the connection between real estate and industrialization, urbanization, consumption level, and average GDP.On one hand, we analyze city planning of Beijing.On the other hand we balance between gross supply and demand in real estate.With the globalization of the world economy, we also discuss that more overseas investment are getting into Beijing’s real estate market . By constructing the strategic model, we can establish suitable development strategy or implementation.We can learn from inside and outside real estate companies, and in dramatic competition, the research hope some modern strategic management theory can be applied to those Beijing real estate companies.

對金融機構而言, 壓力測試是辨識及評估金融機構發生極端事件或最糟情境下可能損失來源的風險管理方法。 國際清算銀行全球金融體系委員會 (BIS Committeeon the Global Financial System) 則將壓力測試定義為 「金融機構衡量潛在但可能 (plausible) 發生異常 (exceptional) 損失的模型」。而對監理機關來說, 壓力測試也是總體審慎分析 (macro-prudential analysis) 的一環。 總體審慎分析係利用金融體系提供的定量資訊 (quantitative information)、 及制度面與管理面提供的定性資訊 (qualitative information)。 它包括金融市場的監控及總體面與金融面的鏈結分析。 其亦為廣義的總體經濟脆弱性評估架構的一部分。 本文針對我國銀行授信資產部位, 嘗試為監理單位提供一套可實行的壓力測試方法。 結合信用風險模型 CreditPortfolioView(CPV) 以及Basel II 中信用風險資本計提的內部評等法(Internal Rating-Based Approach; IRB), 投入適當的總體經濟因子, 並透過總體因子的調整構成壓力情境 (stress scenario), 在體系內銀行皆依法計提資本和提列備抵呆帳的前提下, 檢視銀行法定資本 (regulatory capital) 的變化, 以及透過資本適足性檢視各銀行的承受能力。 在參考 1997 亞洲金融風暴以及2000 年末.com 泡沫時我國經濟情況所建立的假設性壓力情境下, 我國銀行僅有兩間達須被主管機關糾正或接管的範圍。

This thesis consists of three essays that explore the dynamics of interconnected markets and examine the relationships between markets, investor behavior, and fundamental characteristics of the firm and the economy. In the first essay, we investigate the role of trade credit links in generating cross-border return predictability between international firms. Using data from 43 countries from 1993 to 2009, we find that firms with high trade credit in producer countries have stock returns that are strongly predictable based on the returns of their associated customer countries. This behavior is especially prevalent among firms with high levels of foreign sales. To better understand this effect we develop an asset pricing model in which firms in different countries are connected by trade credit links. The model offers further predictions about this phenomenon, including stronger predictability during periods of high credit constraints and low uninformed trading volume. We find supportive empirical evidence for these predictions. The second essay investigates the dynamics of commodity futures volatility. I derive the variance decomposition for the futures basis to show how unexpected excess returns result from new information about expected future interest rates, convenience yields, and risk premia. Using data on major commodity futures markets and global bilateral commodity trade, I analyze the extent to which commodity volatility is related to fundamental uncertainty arising from increased emerging market demand and macroeconomic uncertainty, and control for the potential impact of financial frictions introduced by changing market structure and index trading. I find that a higher concentration in the emerging market importers of a commodity is associated with higher futures volatility. Commodity futures volatility is significantly predictable using variables capturing macroeconomic uncertainty. The third essay investigates the differential explanatory power of consumer (importing countries) and producer (exporting countries) risk in explaining the volatility of commodity spot premia and term premia using trade-weighted indices of GDP volatility. Using data for major commodity futures markets, bilateral commodity trade, exchange rates, and GDP for countries trading these commodities, I test hypotheses on the heterogeneous impact of consumer and producer shocks, potentially driven by differences in hedging preferences and investment planning horizons. Producer risk is significant for both short-dated and long-dated maturities, while consumer risk has greater explanatory power for the volatility of the term spread.

This thesis presents three papers within the field of dynamic macroeconomics. The first paper, entitled “Medium-frequency cycles and the remarkable near trend-stationarity of output”, presents a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model with endogenous growth, capable of reconciling the observed large medium-frequency fluctuations in output, with its long run (near) trend-stationarity. This requires a model in which standard business cycle shocks lead to highly persistent movements around trend, without significantly altering the trend itself. The robustness of the trend also requires that scale effects are eliminated both in the long and short runs. In an estimated version of the model, a financial-type shock to the stock of ideas emerges as the key driver of the medium frequency cycle. The second paper, entitled “Learning from learners”, is an intervention into two long running debates: the first, on whether learnability may be used to rule out explosive paths for inflation in New Keynesian models, and the second, into whether Taylor rule parameters may be identified from observing the data. We find that in an economy populated with traditional macroeconomic learners, Taylor rule parameters can always be identified by sophisticated econometric techniques. Furthermore, when all agents in the economy use such sophisticated techniques, stationary sunspot solutions are readily learnable, and there is no guarantee of convergence to a stationary solution even in the “determinate” case. This implies that learnability cannot be used for equilibrium selection. Finally, in the third paper, “Efficient simulation of DSGE models with inequality constraints” (joint with Michael Paetz), we present a new algorithm for the simulation of models subject to inequality constraints, such as the zero lower bound on nominal interest rates. Our algorithm is shown to deliver higher accuracy than all other non-global algorithms, and leading speed. We go on to provide a number of applications of our algorithm.

Achieving food security under climate change is one of the biggest challenges of the 21st century. The challenge becomes even greater when contextualised within our current limited understanding of how the food system functions as a complex, adaptive socio-ecological system, with food security as one of its outcomes. Adding climate change into this already complex and uncertain mix creates a ‘wicked problem’ that must be solved through the development of adaptive food governance. The thesis has 4 key aims: <ul><li>1. To move beyond an understanding of food security that is dependent solely on agricultural production, and therefore the reliance of future food security predictions on production data based on climate model inputs.</li><li>2. To ground the theoretical aspects of complex adaptive systems with empirical data from multi-level case studies.</li><li>3. To investigate the potential role of the private sector in food system futures.</li><li>4. To analyse food system dynamics across scales and levels.</li></ul> In order to realise these aims, a complex adaptive system (CAS) approach within the GECAFS food system framework is employed to multilevel case studies in South Africa and Brazil. Particular emphasis is placed on the role of the private sector and how these vital actors, comprising a powerful component of the global food system, can be mobilized towards building adaptive capacity for a more resilient food system. Critically, the private sector is often left out of academic discussions on adaptation, which tend to focus more on civil society and governmental capacity to adapt. This thesis provides novel insight into how the power of the private sector can be harnessed to build adaptive capacity. The findings of the thesis showed that applying CAS to issues of governance has three important implications: The first is that in a complex system, it is critical to maintain diversity. This can translate into appreciating a multiplicity of viewpoints in order to reflect a range of decision-making options. This finding makes the case for closer synergy between the public and private sectors around areas like product development and distribution that includes an emphasis on enhancing food security under climate change. In the developing country context, the inclusion of smallholders and local entrepreneurs is also vital for building adaptive capacity. In this sense, it is possible for business to help achieve development goals by developing the capacity of those most vulnerable to socio-economic and environmental shocks. Secondly, adapting to climate change and other environmental and economic pressures will require a shift in mind-set that embraces the uncertainty of the future: ‘managing for uncertainty rather than against it’. This entails a shift in governance mindset away from linear thinking to a decision-making paradigm that is more flexible to deal with unexpected shocks. The third implication for governance is the need to understand the complex interplay of multiple interlinking processes and drivers that function across many levels and sometimes have exponential positive feedbacks in the food system. Adaptive governance is an iterative process, but as more is learnt and information is retained in the system, the ideal is that the beneficial processes that lower inequality and increase food security will start to be reinforced over those that entrench the current inequality in the food system.

This thesis examines the conditions under which democratically elected policymakers are more likely to provide policies that compensate individuals that lose from international trade. It develops and empirically tests a theoretical framework of compensation in open economies that accounts for differences in the degree to which governments benefit losers from trade. It first develops a theory of preference formation based on economic geography, and then argues that electoral and legislative institutions jointly condition the supply of compensation. The theoretical analysis provides three sets of observable implications evaluated using micro- and macro-level data in Europe and Latin America. First, exposure to international competition increases demand for policy that compensates for the costs of trade, but this effect is more pronounced among those individuals in economically specialised and uncompetitive contexts where reemployment in the event of a shock is difficult. Second, policymakers in proportional electoral systems face weak incentives to target trade losers in geographically concentrated and uncompetitive regions. In contrast, majoritarian institutions generate incentives to increase compensation when trade losers are geographically concentrated. Another implication is that under some conditions, the presence of a strong upper house that represents regional interests dampens the provision of compensation, and the relative effect of electoral rules. The empirical implications of the argument are tested using a multi-method research strategy that combines cross-national and case study analyses and draws on quantitative and qualitative techniques. Chapter 3 tests the micro-level implications of the model using survey data for European regions over 2002-2006. The findings indicate that regional economic specialization and regional competitiveness jointly condition the impact of trade on preferences for compensation. Chapter 4 systematically tests the extent to which the geographical concentration of trade losers conditions the effect of electoral institutions on levels of compensation. It uses panel data from 14 European countries from 1980 to 2010. The findings indicate that where trade losers are concentrated, lower district magnitude leads to more compensation. Chapters 5 and 6 conduct case studies of compensation in Spain and Argentina, both countries that underwent deep liberalisation and offer significant variation at the regional and institutional level. Chapter 5 explores preferences over compensation in selected regions in Spain and Argentina, and shows that regional specialisation and competitiveness were important in shaping levels of support for compensation. Chapter 6 examines the role of electoral institutions and legislative veto bargaining in shaping the politics of compensation in Spain and Argentina.

Varieties of Capitalism theory predicts that the skill specificity of workers determines their demand for social protection. In this thesis, I test this assumption using a measure of occupational mobility between pre- and post-unemployment, which I apply to European workers in different skill groups as defined by Fleckenstein et al., (2011). Using this measure as an indicator of the portability of workers' skills, I then evaluate whether the lower marketability of human capital investments is associated with greater demand for unemployment protection. The findings demonstrate that whilst this relationship is apparent in certain countries, notably Coordinated Market Economies such as Germany, the assumptions do not apply across institutional settings. Consequently, skill specificity cannot explain variation in attitudes towards unemployment protection policies between countries.

"L’industrie nano repousse constamment les limites de la miniaturisation. Pour les systèmes CMOS à mémoires non-volatiles, des phénomènes qui étaient négligeables autrefois sont à présent incontournables et nécessitent des modèles de plus en plus complexes pour décrire, analyser et prédire le comportement électrique de ces dispositifs.Le but de cette thèse est de répondre aux besoins de l’industriel, afin d’optimiser au mieux les performances des produits avant et après les étapes de production. Cette étude propose des solutions, comme des méthodes de test innovantes pour des technologies telles que les mémoires non-volatiles EEPROM embarquées.La première méthode proposée, consiste à extraire la densité de pièges (NiT) générée, au cours du cyclage, dans l’oxyde tunnel de cellules EEPROM, à partir d’une Macro cellule de test reprenant toutes les caractéristiques d’un produit fini. Les résultats expérimentaux sont ensuite injectés dans un modèle analytique décrivant le phénomène de SILC (Stress Induced Leakage Current) qui est le principal effet issu de ces pièges. La densité de pièges en fonction du nombre de cycles est ensuite extraite par interpolation entre les courbes expérimentales et les courbes simulées par le modèleLa seconde méthode propose une étude de corrélation statistique entre le test traditionnel de mise en rétention et le test de stress électrique aux bornes de l’oxyde tunnel, proposant des temps d’exécution bien plus courts. Cette étude se base sur les populations de cellules défaillantes à l’issue des deux tests. C’est en comparant les distributions sur ces populations qu’une loi de corrélation apparaît sur la tendance comportementale des cellules." / The nano industry constantly extends the size limits, especially for CMOS devices with embedded non-volatile memories. Each size reduction step always induces new challenges caused by phenomenon which were previously negligible. As a result, more complex models are required to describe, analyze and predict as well as possible the electrical behaviors. The main goal of this thesis is to propose solutions to the industry in term of test, to optimize the performances before and after the whole process steps. Thus, this study proposes two innovative methodologies dedicated to embedded non-volatile EEPROM memories based devices.The first of them consists in to extract the post-cycling generated tunnel oxide traps density (NiT), directly from a macro cell. The experimental results are then used to be compared with an analytical model calculation which perfectly describes the Stress Induced Current phenomena (SILC). This electrical current directly comes from the generated traps inside the cells tunnel oxide. An interpolation is then done between the model and the experimental resulting curves, to extract the tunnel oxide traps density.The second study proposes a method of statistical correlation between the traditional retention test and testing of electrical stress across the tunnel oxide which has shorter execution time. This study is based on cell populations after failing both tests. By comparing the distributions of these populations a correlation law appears between the cells behavioral tendencies. Following this study the replacement of long retention tests by shorter electrical stress tests may be considered.

The aim of this thesis is to verify and analyse presumed relations between selected macro-fundamentals, namely USD exchange rate, production index, interbank offered rate, inflation, money supply and two exogenous indices ( Standard & Poor's 500 and EURO STOXX 50), and CEE (Austria, Czech Republic, Poland, Hungary) or SEE (Bulgaria, Croatia, Slovenia, Romania) financial markets over the period from December 1995 to December 2015. In order to test the long-run cointegration relationships between studied markets and the set of macroeconomic variables, the Engle-Granger and Johansen tests are applied. The vector error correction model is used to confirm the long-run equilibrium interlinkages and the results show similar trend tendencies between stock indices and some of the macro-fundamentals in Croatia, Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland and Romania. To verify the short-run causal linkages, the Granger causality test is employed. Based on retrieved findings, the efficiency of studied markets with respect to Efficient Market Theory is reviewed. Our findings reveal several pairwise short-run causal impacts between studied macroeconomic indicators and stock indices. The only indicator which does not impact any stock market is the interbank offered rate. Moreover, according to our results, all CEE&SEE stock...

This thesis work deals with the volume changes during the solidification of cast irons and peritectic steels. The volume changes in casting metals are related to the expansion and/or contraction of the molten metal during solidification. Often, different types of shrinkage, namely macro- and micro-shrinkage, affect the casting quality. In addition to that, exposure of the metal casting to higher contraction or expansion during the solidification might also be related to internal strain development in samples, which eventually leads to surface crack propagation in some types of steel alloys during continuous casting. In consequence, a deep understanding of the mechanisms and control of the solidification will improve casting quality and production. All of the experiments during the entire work were carried out on laboratory scale samples. Displacement changes during solidification were measured with the help of a Linear Variable Displacement Transformer (LVDT). All of the LVDT experiments were performed on samples inside a sand mould. Simultaneously, the cooling curves of the respective samples during solidification were recorded with a thermocouple. By combining the displacement and cooling curves, the volume changes was evaluated and later used to explain the influence of inoculants, carbon and cooling rates on volume shrinkages of the casting. Hypoeutectic grey cast iron (GCI) and nodular cast iron (NCI) with hypo-, hyper- and eutectic carbon compositions were considered in the experiments from cast iron group. High nickel alloy steel (Sandvik Sanbar 64) was also used from peritectic steel type. These materials were melted inside an induction furnace and treated with different types of inoculants before and during pouring in order to modify the composition. Samples that were taken from the LVDT experiments were investigated using a number of different  methods in order to support the observations from the displacement measurements:  Differential Thermal Analysis (DTA), to evaluate the different phase present; Dilatometry, to see the effect of cooling rates on contraction for the various types of alloys; metallographic studies with optical microscopy; Backscattered electrons (BSE) analysis on SEM S-3700N, to investigate the different types of oxide and sulphide nuclei; and bulk density measurements  by applying Archimedes' principle. Furthermore, the experimental volume expansion during solidification was compared with the theoretically calculated values for GCI and NCI. It was found that the casting shows hardly any shrinkage during early solidification in GCI, but in the eutectic region the casting expands until the end of solidification. The measured and the calculated volume changes are close to one another, but the former shows more expansion. The addition of MBZCAS (Si, Ca, Zr, Ba, Mn and Al) promotes more flake graphite, and ASSC (Si, Ca, Sr and Al) does not increase the number of eutectic cells by much. In addition to that, it lowers the primary austenite fraction, promotes more eutectic growth and decreases undercooled graphite and secondary dendritic arm spacing (SDAS). As a result, the volume expansion changes in the eutectic region. The expansion during the eutectic growth increase with an increase in the inoculant weight percentage. At the same time, the eutectic cells become smaller and increase in number. The effect of the inoculant and the superheat temperature shows a variation in the degree of expansion/contraction and the cooling rates for the experiments. Effective inoculation tends to homogenize the eutectic structure, reducing the undercooled and interdendritic graphite throughout the structure. In NCI experiments, it was found that the samples showed no expansion in the transversal direction due to higher micro-shrinkages in the centre, whereas in the longitudinal direction the samples shows expansion until solidification was complete.   The theoretical and measured volume changes agreed with each other. The austenite fraction and number of micro-shrinkage pores decreased with increase in carbon content. The nodule count and distribution changes with carbon content. The thermal contraction of NCI is not influenced by the variation in carbon content at lower cooling rates. The structural analysis and solidification simulation results for NCI show that the nodule size and count distribution along the cross-sections at various locations are different due to the variation in cooling rates and carbon concentration. Finer nodule graphite appears in the thinner sections and close to the mold walls. A coarser structure is distributed mostly in the last solidified location. The simulation result indicates that finer nodules are associated with higher cooling rate and a lower degree of microsegregation, whereas the coarser nodules are related to lower cooling rate and a higher degree of microsegregation. As a result, this structural variation influences the micro-shrinkage in different parts. The displacement change measurements show that the peritectic steel expands and/or contracts during the solidification. The primary austenite precipitation during the solidification in the metastable region is accompanied by gradual expansion on the casting sides. Primary δ-ferrite precipitation under stable phase diagram is complemented by a severe contraction during solidification. The microstructural analysis reveals that the only difference between the samples is grain refinement with Ti addition. Moreover, the severe contraction in solidification region might be the source for the crack formation due to strain development, and further theoretical analysis is required in the future to verify this observation. / <p>QC 20170228</p>