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Påverkar bedömningar från kreditvärderingsinstitut aktiekursen? : En studie utifrån de svenska storbankerna kring finanskrisen 2008 / Do estimations from credit rating agencies affect the stock price? : A study on the major swedish banks around the financial crisis of 2008Löfgren, Jesper, Ellmén Millberg, Daniel January 2020 (has links)
Bakgrund: Kreditvärderingsinstituten har genom åren fått en del kritik. Under finanskrisen kring 2008 var en bidragande orsak till att kraschen blev så allvarlig på grund av felaktiga kreditvärderingar. Detta var dock endast möjligt på grund av att banker i stor utsträckning ignorerade riskerna med de felaktiga kreditbetygen, som de med hög sannolikhet var medvetna om. Med bakgrund som denna anser författarna att det är av intresse och nytta att granska huruvida kreditbedömningar på banker påverkar aktiekursen och på så sätt bolagsvärdet. Syfte: Syftet med denna studie är att undersöka om kreditbetygsförändringar på de svenska storbankerna; Handelsbanken, Nordea, SEB och Swedbank påverkar respektive banks aktiekurs. Ett delsyfte är att studera eventuell omfattning av denna påverkan på aktiekursen. Ett vidare delsyfte är att undersöka om det finns en skillnad i hur kreditbetygsförändringar påverkar aktiepriset hos de svenska storbankerna i hög- respektive lågkonjunktur. Metod: Denna kvantitativa studie grundas i en deduktiv ansats och hypoteser har utformats med hjälp av författarnas utvalda teorier: Effektiva marknadshypotesen (EMH), Agentteori och Signalteori. Studien har sedan genomförts i form av en eventstudie och det har uppmätts om det finns signifikanta avvikelser i aktiekursen vid publicerandet av en kreditbetygsförändring. Resultat: Resultatet i studien visar på att det finns signifikant påverkan på aktiekursen vid kreditbetygsnedgraderingar på eventdagen. Det påvisades även att lågkonjunktur var en bidragande faktor till aktieutvecklingen. Slutsats: Denna studie finner att kreditbetygsförändringar utgör en effekt på aktiekursen hos de svenska storbankerna. Det kan dock inte fastställas om det finns någon skillnad mellan upp- och nedgraderingar i denna studie. Resultatet visar istället på att lågkonjunktur är den bakomliggande orsaken till att aktiekursen påverkas signifikant. Resultatet tyder även på att aktiekursen har anpassat sig snabbare än i tidigare studier, vilket kan vara en följd av en mer digitaliserad marknad. / Background: Credit rating agencies have received a lot of criticism over the years. During the financial crisis, a contributing cause to why the crash became so serious was due to incorrect credit ratings. This was although only possible because banks generally ignored the risk in the incorrect credit ratings, which they with high probability knew of. With a background like this, the authors believe that it is of interest and benefit to examine whether credit assessments on banks affect the stock price and thus the company value. Purpose: The purpose of this study is to investigate whether credit rating changes on the major swedish banks; Handelsbanken, Nordea, SEB and Swedbank affect each bank's stock price. One part of the purpose is to study the extent of this impact on the stock price. A further part of the purpose is to study if there is a difference in the effect credit rating changes have on the major swedish banks stock price in a economic expansion respective recession. Methodology: This quantitative study is based on a deductive approach and hypotheses have been designed using the authors' selected theories: The Effective Market Hypothesis (EMH), Agent Theory and Signal Theory. The study is then implemented in the form of an event study and it has been tested if there are any significant deviations in the stock price connected to the credit rating changes. Results: The result of the study indicates that there is significant effect on the stock price during the event day when a credit rating downgrade is announced. The results also show that recession is a contributing factor to the significant effect on the stock price. Conclusions: This study finds that changes of credit ratings constitute an effect on the stock price among the big Swedish banks. It can however not be established if there is a difference between up- and downgrades. The result indicates instead that recession is the contributing factor to the significant effect on the stock price. The results also indicate that the stock price has adjusted faster than in earlier studies, which can be an effect of a more digitized market.
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En studie av hur aktiekursprediktioner för läkemedelsbolag påverkas av patentgodkännande : En kvantitativ analys genom ARIMA och ARIMAX / A study of how predictions for stock price in pharmaceutical companies is affected by patent approvals : A quantitative analysis using ARIMA and ARIMAXHill Anderberg, Camilla, Gustafson, Alice January 2021 (has links)
In this thesis we investigate whether the inclusion of an exogenous variable in the form of patentapproval can improve the ARIMA model's predictions for the pharmaceutical companyAstrazeneca. A point of departure for the study is the questioning of the efficient markethypothesis. When comparing data on patent date approval with stock exchange data for threepharmaceutical companies, it could be observed that share prices increased on the date ofapproval in 65 percent of the cases. This observed correlation combined with the fact that severalpapers have established that the stock market may not be efficient make it interesting to studywhether the value of a patent has been included in the stock price prior to approval date.To investigate this, an ARIMA and an ARIMAX model was estimated. The exogenous variable,which controls for patent approvals, was created by retrieving data from the EPO's databasePATSTAT. The retrieved data was then formatted into a dummy variable. The purpose ofincluding an exogenous variable is to investigate whether the market reacts to patent information.If the addition of the exogenous variable proves significant, the result is in conflict with theefficient market hypothesis.During the model selection, it was found that an ARIMA (4,1,2) was the superior model. Themodel was then compared with the corresponding ARIMAX model. When comparing themodels, it was found that the predictions of the ARIMAX model follow the observed datasomewhat better, but a t-test concluded that the improvement was not statistically significant.This implies that the value of the patent has already been included in stock prices prior to patentapproval and indicates that the price increase is random. This results thus lends support for theefficient market hypothesis. To investigate this further, the stock market data was compared witha random walk and by conducting a t-test it could be concluded that it was not possible to rejectthe hypothesis that share prices follow a random walk, thus the result further supports theefficient market hypothesis.
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Swedish finance Twitter accounts short term impact on Swedish small cap companiesJanér, John, Rahimzadagan, Noah January 2021 (has links)
Over the last five years, the amount of retail investors has increased immensely. Trying to make informed decisions, many of the more active investors look to social media as a source of information. In early 2021, the eyes of the world focused on retail investors as Gamestop, a video game retailing company, experienced an immense price surge over the course of a few weeks on the stock market. This event, among others, lead the SEC (Securities and Exchange Commission) to open up a discussion about the impact of social media on the stock market. It seemed individual social media accounts were able to increase the volatility in a number of different stocks. This study investigates the immediate impact of larger Swedish Twitter accounts on the volatility and price of Swedish small- cap companies. Sentiment analysis and data modeling in the Python programming language were used in order to compare volatility and price changes before and after tweets of different sentiments were made about the companies. Our study was unable to find any correlation between an immediate change in price or an immediate increase in volatility and tweets made, suggesting Swedish finance Twitter accounts have little to no immediate impact on Swedish small- cap companies. / Under de senaste fem åren har antalet privata investerare ökat markant. När privata investerare försöker göra välgrundade investeringsbeslut brukar de ofta använda inlägg på sociala medier som ledstjärna. Tidigt på år 2021 vändes blickarna mot privata investerare när priset på spelåterförsäljningsföretaget Gamestops aktier ökat med flera hundratals procent under bara loppet av några få veckor. Denna prisökning fick SEC (Securities and Exchange Commission i USA) att inleda en diskussion om inverkan av sociala medier på aktiehandeln. Mycket påvisade att individuella konton på sociala medier hade förmågan att öka volatilitet av aktiepriser för vissa bolag. Det här forskningsprojektet ämnar att undersöka den omedelbara inverkan av svenska twitterkonton på pris och volatilitet av pris av svenska småföretags aktier. Sentimentanalys och datamodellering gjordes i programmeringsspråket Python för att jämföra volatilitet och prisändringar innan och efter tweets av olika sentiment gjordes om de olika företagen. Studien lyckades inte visa på korrelation mellan en omedelbar ändring i pris eller omedelbar ökning i volatilitet och gjorda tweets, vilket tyder på att twitterkonton har inget eller väldigt lite inflytande på svenska småföretag.
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Hållbar fondförvaltning – för spararens eller förvaltarens vinst? : En jämförelse mellan storbanker och webbaserade fondbolagFagerstedt, Olle January 2016 (has links)
In Sweden, savings in funds today is one of the most popular forms of savings. Through both active and passive choices, almost all Swedes are exposed to the fund market, where mutual funds are the most popular type of funds. A clear majority of these funds are actively managed, which means that one or more fund managers actively work with the investments of the funds, with the aim to outperform the market. This method of management has been hotly debated in recent years, when many scientists claim that fund managers generally fail to outperform the market in long term. At the same time, interest in sustainability investments has increased in recent years, which is reflected in the fund market where sustainability funds have become increasingly popular. This essay therefore focuses on these sustainability funds, with focus on comparing large banks with web-based fund companies. The large banks in Sweden have been criticized for the way they are working seen from a customer perspective, but their funds are still very popular. Against this background, the study aims to investigate whether one can find any differences in performance of actively managed sustainability funds between large banks and web-based fund companies. Using four different models to measure risk-adjusted return of security portfolios, the funds have been examined to see if it is possible to find any patterns in terms of performance and the type of company that manages the funds. The survey results show that there is a clear difference in performance between the large banks and the web-based fund companies, whereby the latter succeed much better. Of the four models used, the large banks do not outperform the market under one model, while the web-based companies manage to outperform the market according to three of the models. Thus it can be stated that if you are interested in saving money in actively managed sustainability funds, it is the web-based companies to turn to. As previously mentioned, the large banks funds are very popular, which means that Swedish private investors have much money to gain by allowing web-based companies to manage their money, rather than large banks.
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Effektivisering av internationell distribution : Svenska företags verksamhetsformer på avlägsna marknader / Effectiveness of international distribution : Swedish firms' operations in distant marketsPehrsson, Uppfeldt, Andreas, Alexander January 2019 (has links)
I denna studie undersöks hur faktorer som ledtid, kostnad och miljö påverkas av valet avverksamhetsform på avlägsna marknader. Även konsekvenser på produktionsstrategi,produktflöde och ekonomiska vinster undersöks. I studien görs fallstudier av svenska företagi länderna Japan och Kina för att undersöka hur företag väljer att etablera sig och arbeta påavlägsna marknader. Fallstudierna analyseras och diskuteras för att undersöka hur de valdafaktorerna påverkas. En rekommendation åt samarbetsföretaget presenteras därrekommendationen utgår från studiens slutsats. / This study examines how factors such as lead time, cost and environment are affected by thechoice of form of operation in remote markets. Also, the consequences on productionstrategy, product flow and economic gains are examined. In the study, case studies are carriedout at various swedish companies Japan and China to investigate how companies choose toestablish themselves and work in remote markets. The case studies are analyzed anddiscussed to examine how the selected factors are affected. A recommendation is presented tothe partner company where the recommendation is based on the study's conclusion.
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Visit Swedens marknadsstrategier : En kandidatuppsats om Visit Swedens val av internationella marknader jämfört med de regionala DMO:s prioriteringar / Visit Sweden's market strategies : A bachelor thesis on Visit Sweden's choice of international markets compared to how the regional DMO:s priorities.Patko, Adam, Issa, Muhinde, Geralf, Belinda January 2019 (has links)
Huvudsyftet med denna uppsats är att förstå vad det finns för olika prioriteringar bland Visit Sweden och de regionala DMO:s när det kommer till en inriktning av den inkommande internationella turismen till Sverige. Vidare är vårt delsyfte att ta reda på hur samarbetet mellan Visit Sweden och de regionala destination managementorganisationer, s.k. DMO:s, förhåller sig och hör ihop med varandra. Vi har använt oss utav kvalitativ metod med olika former av intervjuer från de utförda intervjuerna med Visit Sweden och det regionala DMO:s samt även textmaterial från Visit Swedens webbsida. Teorierna är vetenskapliga artiklar som vi anser anknyter till det valda ämnet samt den insamlade empirin. I resultaten utifrån den insamlade empiri framgår det att Visit Sweden inte ser själva att de väljer specifika marknader, men att de erkänner att de väljer fokusmarknader när det gäller de olika länderna. Visit Swedens val handlar bl.a. om de ser en potential att resenärer i respektive länder vill besöka Sverige. Detta kan ändras över tid beroende på interna och externa faktorer. De utgår främst utifrån deras målgrupp den Globala resenären som enligt deras marknadsanalyser kan appliceras på flera olika länder som inte ingår i deras fokusmarknader. Det som också styr deras val av marknader och marknadssegment är deras ägare svenska staten och svensk turism AB, men också olika turismaktörer såsom små och stora, som t.ex. hotell som efterfrågar att få hjälp med marknadsföring gentemot internationella turister. Gällande hur de regionala DMO:s prioriteringar ser ut i förhållande till Visit Sweden kan vi konstatera att de flesta prioriterar likartat i förhållande till Visit Sweden. Däremot ser vi ett mönster då de regionala DMO:s som inte delar samma val av fokusmarknader väljer att marknadsföra sig på andra sätt. Detta görs trots det finns en möjlighet för samarbete med Visit Sweden även om fokusmarknaden inte är densamma. / Our main purpose with this bachelor thesis is to get an understanding of which different orientations currently exists when it comes to the incoming international tourism to Sweden. Furthermore, we want to find out how the collaboration between Visit Sweden and the regional destinations management organizations, called DMO:s is structured in relation to each other. We have chosen a qualitative method which includes several different types of interviews with Visit Sweden and the regional DMO:s as well as text material from Visit Sweden's website. The theories are scientific articles which we consider are suitable to our chosen subject and empirical data. The results based on the collected empirical evidence show that Visit Sweden does not see that they have choose specific markets, but they admit that they choose focus markets when it comes to countries. Among other things, Visit Sweden's choice is about when they see a potential that travelers in each country want to visit Sweden. This can change over time depending on internal and external factors. They are based primarily on their target group Global Traveler who according to their market analyzes can be applied to several different countries that are not included in their focus markets. What also controls the selection of markets and market segments are their owners the Swedish state and Swedish tourism AB, but also various tourism stakeholders such as small and large, for example hotels who seek help with marketing towards international tourists. When it comes to how regional DMO:s prioritize compared to Visit Sweden we can conclude that several of them prioritize in the same way as Visit Sweden. However, we see a pattern when regional DMO:s who do not share the same choice of focus markets choose to market themselves in other ways than cooperating with Visit Sweden. This happens despite of the fact that there is an opportunity for collaboration with Visit Sweden still even if their focus market is not the same.
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Den svenska aktiemarknadens beroende av makroekonomin i Tyskland och USA / The Swedish Stock Market's Dependence of the Macroeconomy in Germany and USAKarlsson, Robin, Olsson, Jessica January 2007 (has links)
<p>Bakgrund: Dagligen diskuteras utländsk makroekonomiska data i svensk media, där förväntningarna på utvecklingen av dessa sätts i sammanhang med utvecklingen på den svenska börsen.</p><p>Syfte: Målet med den här studien var att utröna i hur stor utsträckning denna information kan anses vara betydande för en aktieinvesterare med kapital på den svenska börsen. Hänsyn togs även till börscykler samt varierande tidsperioder.</p><p>Genomförande: Med grund i the Arbitrage Pricing Theory genomfördes multipla regressionsanalyser, med det svenska indexet OMXS30 som beroendevariabel. Undersökningarna baserades på månadsdata för perioden april 1991 till och med augusti 2006. Den makroekonomiska datan försköts därtill en period för att ta hänsyn till variablernas eventuella fördröja effekter på Stockholmsbörsen.</p><p>Resultat: Integrationen mellan börserna visade sig ha ökat över tiden, med undantag för extraordinära perioder som IT-boomen, där makroekonomiska fundamentaldata istället slås ut. En positiv utvecklingen av långräntan samt konsumentförtroendet i USA tyder på en samtida börsuppgång i Sverige. Vidare är båda växelkurserna starkt signifikanta, där en stärkt dollar och en försvagad euro har positiva effekter på den svenska marknadsutvecklingen.</p> / <p>Background: Foreign macroeconomic fundamentals are daily discussed in the Swedish media, where expectations on the development of these are put into context with the ecnonomic development in Sweden.</p><p>Aim: The purpose of this thesis is to analyse to what extent this information is important for a investor on the Swedish Stock Market. Consideration was also taken to trends in the Stock Market as well as varying time periods.</p><p>Research Method: Against the background of the Abritrage Pricing Theory a multiple regression analysis was conducted,with the Swedish Stock Market Index OMXS30 as the dependent variable. The macroeconomic variables where based on monthly data between April 1991 and August 2006 and were thereto lagged one period in order to identify any delayed effects.</p><p>Result: The integration between the Stock Markets was found to increse over time, with the exception of extraordinary periods, as the IT-boom, where macroeconomic fundamentals lost significance. A positive long-term interest rate as well as a positive consumer confidence in the U.S. was found to indicate a contemporary rising market in Sweden. Further were both of the exchange rates found significant, where a stronger dollar and a weaker euro have positive effects on the Swedish current Stock Market.</p>
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Financial market imperfections, business cycle fluctuations and economic growthMendicino, Caterina January 2006 (has links)
Diss. Stockholm : Handelshögskolan, 2006
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Competition, regulation and integration in international financial marketsNystedt, Jens January 2004 (has links)
Chapter I - Derivative Market Competition: OTC Markets Versus Organized Derivative Exchanges Recent regulatory initiatives in the United States have again raised the issue of a ''level regulatory and supervisory playing field'' and the degree of competition globally between over-the-counter (OTC) derivatives and organized derivative exchange (ODE) markets. This chapter models some important aspects of how an ODE market interrelates with the OTC markets. It analyzes various ways in which an ODE market can respond to competition from the OTC markets and considers whether ODE markets would actually benefit from a more level playing field. Among other factors, such as different transaction costs, different abilities to mitigate credit risk play a significant role in determining the degree of competition between the two types of markets. This implies that a potentially important service ODE markets can provide OTC market participants is to extend clearing services to them. Such services would allow the OTC markets to focus more on providing less competitive contracts/innovations and instead customize their contracts to specific investors’ risk preferences and needs. Chapter II – Crisis Resolution and Private Sector Adaptation Efforts at crisis resolution that succeed in reducing potential inefficiencies and instability in the international financial system are in the interest of both the private and the public sector. Unlike in the domestic context, in the international context, in the absence of clearly established rules of the game, the approaches adopted toward crisis resolution, and the extent to which they are interpreted by market participants as setting a precedent, can have profound implications for the nature and structure of international capital flows. The key conclusion of this chapter is that recent experiences with payment suspensions and bond restructurings are limited as guides to determining the future success or failures of these initiatives, as the private sector most likely has adapted in order to minimize any unwanted public sector involvement. Chapter III - European Equity Market Integration: Cyclical or Structural? Reviewing the empirical evidence of equity market integration in the European Union, the chapter finds a significant increase in the importance of global sector factors for a number of industries. Unlike most past studies, which only covered developments during the bull market of the late nineties, the results presented in this chapter suggest that the degree of Euroland equity market integration has declined gradually following the bursting of the TMT bubble. This seems to suggest that the findings of previous studies that Euroland equity markets were nearly fully financially integrated is worth revisiting. There are, however, several good reasons to believe that the structural factors driving European equity market integration have yet to play themselves out fully. Institutional investors both outside the Euroland area and within have substantial untapped capacity to take on Euroland exposures and invest additionally in Euroland equities. / Diss. Stockholm : Handelshögskolan, 2004
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Vilka makroekonomiska faktorer styr köp av kapitalvaror? : en teoretisk och empirisk studie av faktorer som påverkar hushållens val av nybilsinköp.Åhnborg Petrushenko, Diana January 2008 (has links)
I detta projektarbete kommer följande att behandlas; Efter en definition och begreppsförklarande inledande del presenteras en teoretisk genomgång av konsumtionsteori med en mer specifik vinkling mot teorier om kapitalvaror. Därefter kommer en empirisk studie där faktorer som behandlats i teoridelen tas upp som beroendevariabler för efterfrågan på kapitalvaran bil. Slutsatserna som dras är att räntenivån påverkar bilinköp mest, troligen för att kreditkostnaderna utgör en allt större del av hushållens disponibla inkomster. Dessutom bekräftas det att inkomsten fluktuerar mer än konsumtionen och detta gäller också för hushållens konsumtion av nya bilar.
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