L’analyse logique et systémique de la transition constitutionnelle permet de comprendre la réussite de la démocratisation au Bénin. La transition constitutionnelle fut en effet l’instrument de sa transition démocratique, dont elle est également le révélateur.La Conférence nationale fut l’organe central de cette transition constitutionnelle, ce qui généra un processus constituant inclusif et consensuel. Ces deux principes directeurs ont favorisé l’adoption d’une Constitution équilibrée et légitime en intégrant la diversité sociale au processus constituant. Plus encore, ils ont pacifié les relations politiques et incité les acteurs à respecter les règles établies, en les contraignant à coopérer. Pour y parvenir, la rationalisation de la transition fut essentielle. Elle s’est fondée sur des organes adaptés et sur la constitutionnalisation du processus, qui a agi comme un cliquet anti-retour. Ce constitutionnalisme émergent dut cependant cohabiter avec le pragmatisme, car une rationalisation effective impliquait d’adapter ses instruments au contexte spécifique de la transition.L’inclusion et le consensus, combinés à la cooptation des acteurs et à un constitutionnalisme pragmatique, ont ainsi permis l’adoption d’une Constitution facilitant la consolidation démocratique. Cette réussite révèle que ce droit constitutionnel de transition spécifique est plus démocratisant que le recours au droit constitutionnel démocratique. L’analyse comparative démontre que ce constat n’est pas propre au Bénin. Elle confirme également que la mise en œuvre d’un processus inclusif et consensuel dépend certes des choix des acteurs, mais est aussi conditionnée par leurs rapports de force. / The logical and systemic analysis of the constitutional transition allows to understand the success of democratization in Benin. The constitutional transition was indeed the instrument of its democratic transition, as much as it reveals it. The National Conference was the central organ of this constitutional transition, which generated an inclusive and consensual constituent process. These two guiding principles favored the adoption of a well-balanced and legitimate Constitution by integrating social diversity into the constituent process. Moreover, they pacified political relations and fostered actors to respect the established rules, by forcing them to cooperate. To achieve this, the rationalization of the transition was essential. It relied on appropriated organs and on constitutionnalization of the process, which acted as an anti-return pawl. This emergent constitutionalism had however to cohabit with pragmatism, since an effective rationalization implied to adapt its instruments to the specific context of the transition.Inclusion and consensus, combined with co-optation of actors and a pragmatic constitutionalism, allowed the adoption of a Constitution facilitating democratic consolidation. This success reveals that this specific transitional constitutional Law is more democratizing than the recourse to democratic constitutional Law. The comparative analysis demonstrates that this fiding is not specific to Benin. It also confirms that the implementation of an inclusive and consensual process certainly depends on the choices made by the actors but is also conditional on their balance of power.

In the first part of this thesis, we introduce a new methodology for stress-test exercises. Our approach allows to consider richer stress-test exercises, which assess the impact of a modification of the whole distribution of asset prices' factors, rather than focusing as the common practices on a single realization of these factors, and take into account the potential reaction to the shock of the portfolio manager. The second part of the thesis is devoted to the pricing of bonds with very long-term time-to-maturity (more than ten years). Modeling the volatility of very long-term rates is a challenge, due to the constraints put by no-arbitrage assumption. As a consequence, most of the no-arbitrage term structure models assume a constant limiting rate (of infinite maturity). The second chapter investigates the compatibility of the so-called "level" factor, whose variations have a uniform impact on the modeled yield curve, with the no-arbitrage assumptions. We introduce in the third chapter a new class of arbitrage-free term structure factor models, which allows the limiting rate to be stochastic, and present its empirical properties on a dataset of US T-Bonds.

L’idée d’une égalité souveraine apparaît en même temps que le système international multilatéral. Bien que l’égalité souveraine soit consacrée explicitement dans la Charte des Nations Unies, le principe reste indéfini. Cette étude propose une définition de l’égalité souveraine en trois facettes : l’égalité formelle, l’égalité législative et l’égalité existentielle. Suite à l’examen des trois dimensions de l’égalité souveraine, une conception stricte de l’égalité souveraine ne peut être soutenue puisque toutes les facettes sont atteintes d’une relativité soit par la légalisation de l’hégémonie, par la bifurcation de l’ordre juridique international, la représentation inégale au sein des institutions multilatérales ou par l’anti-pluralisme. Bref, l’examen de chacune des facettes du principe de l’égalité souveraine démontre que l’égalité souveraine est une fiction juridique. Le principe de l’égalité souveraine peut difficilement être justifié par rapport à la réalité de la société internationale. Il demeure néanmoins utile, ne serait-ce que pour freiner le pouvoir des Grandes Puissances et se poser comme un idéal à atteindre. / The idea of sovereign equality emerged along with the multilateral international system. Although sovereign equality is explicitly entrenched in the United Nations Charter, a definition remains lacking. This study proposes a three dimensional definition of sovereign equality: formal equality, legislative equality and existential equality. Following an in-depth examination of its three dimensions, a strong conception of sovereign equality cannot be sustained because of legalised hegemony, bifurcation of the international legal order, unequal representation within multilateral institutions and anti-pluralism. Hence, the study of each dimension of sovereign equality shows that sovereign equality is a mere legal fiction. It can hardly be justified in light of the reality of international society. Nevertheless, the principle is still relevant for the purpose of restraining the prerogatives of the Great Powers and remains an ideal to achieve.

Cette thèse s’attèle à déterminer les conséquences théoriques et empiriques de la considération d’indicateurs socialement responsables dans la sélection de portefeuille traditionnelle. Le premier chapitre étudie la significativité de la perte d’efficience moyenne-variance d’un portefeuille d’obligations souveraines lorsque l’on introduit une contrainte sur la notation socialement responsable moyenne des Etats. En utilisant un échantillon d’obligations d’Etats développés sur la période 1995-2008, nous montrons qu’il est possible d’augmenter sensiblement la notation socialement responsable moyenne sans perdre significativement en termes de diversification. Le second chapitre propose une analyse théorique de l’effet sur la frontière efficiente d’une contrainte sur la notation socialement responsable du portefeuille. Nous mettons en évidence les différents cas de figure pouvant se produire en fonction de la corrélation entre les rendements attendus et les notations socialement responsables et de l’aversion au risque de l’investisseur. Enfin, puisque la question de l’efficience des portefeuilles investis en fonction de critères socialement responsables fait débat dans la littérature financière, un dernier chapitre propose un nouveau test d’efficience moyenne-variance dans le cas réaliste où aucun actif sans risque n’est disponible. / This thesis aims at determining the theoretical and empirical consequences of the consideration of socially responsible indicators in the traditional portfolio selection. The first chapter studies the significance of the mean-variance efficiency loss of a sovereign bond portfolio when introducing a constraint on the average socially responsible ratings of the governments. By using a sample of developed sovereign bonds on the period 1995-2008, we show that it is possible to increase sensibly the average socially responsible rating without significantly losing in terms of diversification. The second chapter proposes a theoretical analysis of the impact on the efficient frontier of a constraint on the socially responsible ratings of the portfolio. We highlight that different cases may arise depending on the correlation between the expected returns and the socially responsible ratings and on the investor’s risk aversion. Lastly, as the issue of the efficiency of socially responsible portfolios is a central point in the financial literature, the last chapter proposes a new mean-variance efficiency test in the realistic case where there is no available risk-free asset.

Submitted by Henrique Yu Jiunn Wang (henriqueyjw@gmail.com) on 2015-09-21T21:41:16Z No. of bitstreams: 1 Intervenções fiscais em uma economia monetária- um estudo do caso brasileiro.pdf: 13075665 bytes, checksum: 460672073307c2ae8ff746ee1b17f376 (MD5) / Rejected by Renata de Souza Nascimento (renata.souza@fgv.br), reason: Henrique, Será necessário fazer alguns ajustes na formatação das primeiras páginas de seu trabalho, pois não não está de acordo com as normas da ABNT. Encaminharemos as orientações por e-mail. Att on 2015-09-21T22:15:38Z (GMT) / Submitted by Henrique Yu Jiunn Wang (henriqueyjw@gmail.com) on 2015-09-21T23:15:53Z No. of bitstreams: 1 Intervenções fiscais em uma economia monetária- um estudo do caso brasileiro.pdf: 13079987 bytes, checksum: 7b8cba8ba1620901c7863edbd398d23c (MD5) / Approved for entry into archive by Renata de Souza Nascimento (renata.souza@fgv.br) on 2015-09-21T23:18:19Z (GMT) No. of bitstreams: 1 Intervenções fiscais em uma economia monetária- um estudo do caso brasileiro.pdf: 13079987 bytes, checksum: 7b8cba8ba1620901c7863edbd398d23c (MD5) / Made available in DSpace on 2015-09-22T13:56:45Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 Intervenções fiscais em uma economia monetária- um estudo do caso brasileiro.pdf: 13079987 bytes, checksum: 7b8cba8ba1620901c7863edbd398d23c (MD5) Previous issue date: 2015-08-25 / In this study, we consider an economy where the determination of fiscal and monetary policies are subject to the budget constraint of the government, seen as a consolidated agent that incorporates the executive and the central bank. We study how changes in the growth rate and composition of government liabilities (currency and governmental bonds) affect prices, interest rates, and economic activity. We are particularly interested in analyzing how these effects are affected by changes in the relative liquidity of government bonds. A central result of this work is that increases in the degree of liquidity of government bonds positively affect economic activity and the financing of public debt. We describe this last aspect with an example reflecting the case of the Brazilian economy. / Neste estudo consideramos uma economia onde a determinação das políticas fiscais e monetárias estão sujeitas à restrição orçamentária do governo, visto como um agente consolidado que incorpora o executivo e o banco central. Nós estudamos como mudanças na taxa de crescimento e na composição do passivo governamental (moeda e títulos) afetam preços, juros, e atividade econômica. Estamos particularmente interessados em analisar como estes efeitos são afetados por mudanças na liquidez relativa dos títulos públicos. Um resultado central deste trabalho é que aumentos no grau de liquidez dos títulos públicos afetam positivamente a atividade econômica e o financiamento da dívida pública. Descrevemos este último aspecto com um exemplo refletindo o caso da economia brasileira.

Submitted by Miguel de Campos Pinto Coelho (miguelpintocoelho@gmail.com) on 2016-03-01T02:08:17Z No. of bitstreams: 1 2015-16_S2-932304-Miguel_Pinto_Coelho.pdf: 1544988 bytes, checksum: 0410eb0c13fc1b0030abc341426188b1 (MD5) / Approved for entry into archive by Ana Luiza Holme (ana.holme@fgv.br) on 2016-03-01T12:28:51Z (GMT) No. of bitstreams: 1 2015-16_S2-932304-Miguel_Pinto_Coelho.pdf: 1544988 bytes, checksum: 0410eb0c13fc1b0030abc341426188b1 (MD5) / Made available in DSpace on 2016-03-01T13:13:25Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 2015-16_S2-932304-Miguel_Pinto_Coelho.pdf: 1544988 bytes, checksum: 0410eb0c13fc1b0030abc341426188b1 (MD5) Previous issue date: 2016-01-18 / This project investigates if there was any influence of credit rating agencies and long-term government bond yields on each other before, during and after Europe’s sovereign debt crisis. This is addressed by estimating the relationship and causality between sovereign debt ratings or bond yields and macroeconomic and structural variables following a different procedure to explain ratings and bond yields. It is found evidence that, in distressed periods, ratings and yields do affect one another. This suggests that a rating downgrade might create a self-fulfilling prophecy, leading relatively stable countries to default. / Neste projeto, investigamos se as agências de rating e as taxas de juro de longo prazo da dívida soberana tiveram uma influência recíproca antes, durante e após a crise da dívida soberana Europeia. Esta análise é realizada, estimando a relação existente entre os ratings da dívida soberana ou taxas de juro e factores macroeconomicos e estruturais, através de uma diferente aplicação de metodologias utilizadas para este efeito. Os resultados obtidos demonstram que, no período da crise soberana, os ratings e as taxas de juros tiveram um mútuo impacto, sugerindo que as descidas dos ratings podem ter conduzido a profecias auto-realizáveis, levando países relativamente estáveis a um eventual incumprimento

Submitted by MARCELO CORREA DE SALLES (mmcsalles@gmail.com) on 2016-05-05T03:14:06Z No. of bitstreams: 1 Dissertação - Marcelo Salles - Final.pdf: 1238026 bytes, checksum: ae1120b67bcf1564774eb71065b7aa4d (MD5) / Approved for entry into archive by GILSON ROCHA MIRANDA (gilson.miranda@fgv.br) on 2016-05-18T12:51:26Z (GMT) No. of bitstreams: 1 Dissertação - Marcelo Salles - Final.pdf: 1238026 bytes, checksum: ae1120b67bcf1564774eb71065b7aa4d (MD5) / Approved for entry into archive by GILSON ROCHA MIRANDA (gilson.miranda@fgv.br) on 2016-06-02T16:50:08Z (GMT) No. of bitstreams: 1 Dissertação - Marcelo Salles - Final.pdf: 1238026 bytes, checksum: ae1120b67bcf1564774eb71065b7aa4d (MD5) / Made available in DSpace on 2016-06-14T12:53:18Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 Dissertação - Marcelo Salles - Final.pdf: 1238026 bytes, checksum: ae1120b67bcf1564774eb71065b7aa4d (MD5) Previous issue date: 2008-04-30 / This work make an analysis of the Brazilian interest rates, and the main features of the sovereign nominal rates curve, with emphasis on fixed income securities issued by the government in local currency (Reais), in both the domestic and foreign markets, where we note the occurrence of a phenomenon quite peculiar, which is the diferential in the yield and the maturity existing between the two markets. Arida, Bacha and Lara-Resende (2004) conjecture about the existence of an inherent risk to the country, called 'jurisdictional uncertainty' related to Brazilian institutions, and that would be behind the high interest rates and the absence of a long-term domestic credit market. It is also done a more detailed diagnosis of the possible causes of the longer maturity phenomenon and lower yield on securities issued in foreign markets compared to securities issued in the local market, noting that both phenomena - the high Brazilian interest rates and the absence of a market long-term interest rates - are directly related. The conclusions on the possible causes of the yield differential between local and foreign securities issued in Reais envolve both quantitative factors, related to investment costs in Brazil and convertibility risk, which in part contributes to increase required yields for local securities, as well as qualitative factors, such as worse institutions in Brazil compared to the external institutions. The difference in the maturity of the two securities also comes from institutional issues, which, to some extent, reaffirms the theory of 'jurisdictional uncertainty' to explain this phenomenon. / O trabalho faz uma análise sobre as taxas de juros brasileiras, além das principais características da curva soberana de juros nominais, dando ênfase aos títulos pré-fixados emitidos pelo governo em moeda local, no mercado doméstico e externo, onde notamos a ocorrência de um fenômeno bastante peculiar, que é o diferencial de rendimento e de maturidade existentes entre os dois mercados. Arida, Bacha e Lara-Resende (2004) conjecturam sobre a existência de um risco inerente ao país, chamado por eles de 'incerteza jurisdicional', relacionado às instituições brasileiras, e que estaria por trás das altas taxas de juros e da inexistência de um mercado de crédito doméstico de longo prazo. É feito um diagnóstico mais detalhado sobre as possíveis causas do fenômeno de maior maturidade e menor rendimento dos títulos emitidos no mercado externo em relação aos títulos do mercado interno, notando-se que ambos os fenômenos – dos altos juros brasileiros e da inexistência de um mercado juros de longo prazo – estão diretamente relacionados. As conclusões sobre as possíveis causas para o diferencial de rendimento entre os títulos locais e externos emitidos em Reais dizem respeito tanto aos fatores quantitativos, relacionados aos custos de investimento no Brasil e ao risco de conversibilidade, que contribuem em parte para aumentar as taxas exigidas para os títulos locais, bem como aos fatores qualitativos, como piores instituições no Brasil em relação às instituições externas. A diferença de maturidade entre os títulos também advém de questões institucionais, o que reafirma de certo modo a teoria de 'incerteza jurisdicional' para explicar este fenômeno.

Submitted by Paula Magalhães (paulakmagalhaes@gmail.com) on 2017-05-24T17:25:55Z No. of bitstreams: 1 Paula Magalhaes Dissertacao.pdf: 437299 bytes, checksum: 5ee7ce9b3eb164a2bd2068b1d47f4c92 (MD5) / Approved for entry into archive by Suzinei Teles Garcia Garcia (suzinei.garcia@fgv.br) on 2017-05-24T19:26:49Z (GMT) No. of bitstreams: 1 Paula Magalhaes Dissertacao.pdf: 437299 bytes, checksum: 5ee7ce9b3eb164a2bd2068b1d47f4c92 (MD5) / Made available in DSpace on 2017-05-25T12:11:52Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 Paula Magalhaes Dissertacao.pdf: 437299 bytes, checksum: 5ee7ce9b3eb164a2bd2068b1d47f4c92 (MD5) Previous issue date: 2017-05-11 / Este artigo trata do papel do Fundo Monetário Internacional como um agente sênior, fato observado empiricamente. Um agente soberano sujeito a um choque estocástico deve tomar emprestado para suavizar seu consumo. O mercado financeiro internacional oferece seus fundos, contudo cobra um prêmio por dividir o risco sobre o choque com o governo. O FMI, embora sênior, empresta a uma taxa menor. Encontramos as condições sob as quais a presença do FMI em tal mercado é relevante e positiva ao agente emprestador. Tais condições dependerão do tamanho do prêmio de risco cobrado, que em nossa análise é dado exogenamente. / This paper addresses the role of the International Monetary Fund in the international monetary economy as a senior agent, as observed empirically. A sovereign agent subject to a stochastic shock must borrow to smooth out consumption. The international financial market offers fund, however it charges a premium for sharing the risk over the shock with the government. The IMF, however senior, lends at a lower rate. Hence, the sovereign government must choose its borrower. We find conditions under which the IMF presence in such market is relevant and positive to the borrowing agent. Such conditions will depend on the size of the risk premium charged, which in our analysis will be exogenously given

La mise en place de l'Euro en 1999 a constitué un événement économique majeur pour les Etats européens. La crise financière de 2007, puis la crise de la dette souveraine en 2010, ont amené à remettre en question la pérennité de la zone Euro, et la capacité de certains de ses membres à respecter leurs engagements vis-à-vis de la monnaie unique. Les mesures d'austérité mises en oeuvre au sein de l'Union Economique et Monétaire dans le contexte actuel de crise peuvent constituer pour certains Etats une tentation supplémentaire pour quitter la monnaie unique et recouvrer leur indépendance monétaire et fiscale. Une sortie de la zone Euro de la Grèce, voire d'autres Etats membres en difficulté (Portugal, Irlande, Italie, et Espagne) n'est aujourd'hui plus un scénario à exclure. Cette thèse se propose de considérer la question du régime monétaire optimal, régime de change flexible ou union monétaire, pour les 17 pays de la zone Euro, dans le cadre des crises financières et de dettes souveraines qui les affectent actuellement. Le premier chapitre est général et vise à démontrer formellement la survenue d'une rupture structurelle due au passage à la monnaie unique en 1999. Il montre qu'une telle rupture s'est bien produite pour les pays de la zone Euro autour de l'année 1992, qui a marqué l'adoption du traité de Maastricht et la mise en place des critères de convergence pour l'adoption de l'Euro. Cette rupture n'est pas partagée par les trois pays européens qui ont préservé leur monnaie (Royaume-Uni, Suède, et Danemark). Le second chapitre constitue le coeur de ce travail. Il présente le modèle de référence utilisé pour mener la comparaison entre les deux régimes monétaires considérés pour la zone Euro. Il s'agit d'un modèle à deux pays intégrant des rigidités financières dans le cadre des transactions interbancaires conclues entre les Etats membres. Le modèle, une fois étalonné pour la zone Euro, suggère que les rigidités financières peuvent jouer un rôle considérable dans la dynamique de ces Etats, les chocs affectant les économies partenaires pouvant contribuer de manière significative à la dynamique nationale. Les simulations numériques préliminaires de crise financières menées sur le modèle ne permettent pas d'apporter de réponse concluante quant aux performances des deux régimes monétaires envisagés, le régime de change flexible semblant amener une stabilité accrue, là où une union monétaire permet une récupération plus rapide suite à la crise initiale. Le dernier chapitre remplit un double objectif. Il propose d'abord un critère de bien-être formel pour l'évaluation des performances respectives des deux régimes considérés. Il développe également un certain nombre d'extensions au modèle de référence, afin d'intégrer la dette souveraine, et les politiques de crédit (Covered Bonds Purchase Programme et Securities Markets Programme) mises en place par la BCE depuis le début de la crise. Les résultats montrent qu'en l'absence de politiques interventionnistes de la part de la Banque Centrale Européenne, une grande majorité des Etats de la zone Euro (15 sur 17) bénéficieraient d'un plus haut niveau de bien-être dans un régime de change flexible. Toutefois, les conclusions s'inversent dans le cadre du Securities Markets Programme, où les Etats membres deviennent alors majoritairement favorables au régime d'union monétaire. Celà suggère que la BCE a un rôle à jouer au sein de l'espace monétaire Européen qui va au-delà de sa fonction première d'instigatrice de la politique monétaire. / The introduction of the Euro currency in 1999 represented a major event for the European economies. The 2007 financial crisis and the subsequent 2010 sovereign debt crisis have led to question the sustainability of the Euro area and the capacity of certain member states to fulfil their commitments with respect to the single currency. The numerous austerity plans implemented within the Economic and Monetary Union in the current context of crisis constitute additional arguments for certain states to leave the single currency and retrieve their fiscal and monetary independences. It is not unconceivable anymore for countries such as Greece, Portugal, Ireland, Italy and Spain (the PIIGS) to envisage exiting the Euro area. This thesis considers the issue of determining the optimal monetary regime  flexible exchange rates or monetary union  for the 17 Eurozone countries, accounting for the current financial and sovereign debt crises. Chapter 1 is general and aims at formally establishing the occurrence of a structural break attributable to the 1999 passage to the single currency. It shows that such a break did take place for Euro area countries around 1992, the year which marked the adoption of the Maastricht Treaty and the settlement of the convergence criteria for the Euro. This break is not shared by the three European States which chose to preserve their own currencies (the United Kingdom, Sweden and Denmark). Chapter 2 constitutes the core of this work. It introduces the benchmark model used to perform the comparison between the two monetary regimes considered for the Euro area. It features a two-country open-economy model integrating financial frictions through cross-border interbank markets. Once calibrated for the Euro area, the model suggests that financial rigidities may play a substantial role in the dynamics of Eurozone economies, with a potentially significant impact of shocks affecting the partner economies over national developments. Preliminary financial crisis simulations run on the model prove inconclusive to assess the performances of the two monetary regimes contemplated. On the one hand, the flexible exchange rate regime results in improved stability, but on the other hand the monetary union typically allows for faster recovery following the initial crisis trigger. The third and final chapter meets a double purpose. It first proposes a formal welfare criteria to assess the respective performances of the two monetary regimes under consideration for the Euro area. It then augments the benchmark model with a number of extensions, so as to integrate sovereign debt and the diverse credit policies (Covered Bonds Purchase Programme and Securities Markets Programme) implemented by the ECB since the beginning of the crisis to the basic framework. The results show that absent credit policies, a vast majority of Euro area members (15 out of 17) would enjoy higher welfare levels under a flexible exchange rate regime. These conclusions nevertheless reverse under the Securities Markets Programme, where a majority of member states then favour the monetary union. This suggests that the ECB has a role to play for the Euro area which goes beyond its primary function of monetary policy maker.

O objetivo desse trabalho é analisar a influência que fundamentos internos e fatores externos exercem sobre a taxa de juros nominal dos títulos soberanos de longo prazo nos países emergentes. A base de dados engloba 13 países ao longo de 33 trimestres entre 2006 e 2014. A metodologia utilizada aborda as técnicas econométricas mais recentes para tratar dados macroeconômicos. O modelo estimado é o Pooled Mean Group desenvolvido por Pesaran, Shin e Smith (1999). O modelo consegue separar as variáveis que afetam o nível de equilíbrio da taxa de juros das que exercem efeito apenas no curto prazo. Na melhor especificação apresentada, os resultados indicam que as variáveis que causam flutuações de curto prazo na taxa de juros dos países emergentes são a taxa de juros livre de risco (+0,3), a taxa de curto prazo (+0,4) e o déficit do governo americano (+0,1). Já as variáveis que afetam o nível de equilíbrio são a taxa de juros livre de risco (+0,5), a aversão ao risco dos investidores (+0,1), o saldo em conta corrente (-0,3), a inflação (+0,1), a abertura econômica (-0,04) e a dívida bruta (efeito positivo não linear). Por fim, ao analisar exclusivamente o caso brasileiro, nosso modelo indica que se o país tivesse mantido os fundamentos internos em linha com a média dos outros emergentes desde o final de 2006, o Brasil iria chegar ao final de 2014 com uma taxa de juros nominal de longo prazo de 6,1%, 6 p.p. abaixo do valor efetivamente observado que foi de 12,1%. / The aim of this study is to analyze the influence that internal fundamentals and external factors have on long-term sovereign bond yields in emerging markets. The database covers 13 countries over 33 quarters between 2006 and 2014. The methodology addresses the latest techniques to deal with macro panels, such as panel unit root and panel cointegration tests. The estimated model is the Pooled Mean Group developed by Pesaran, Shin e Smith (1999). This model can separate the variables that affect the interest rate equilibrium from the ones that only have an effect in the short-run. In the best specification presented, the results indicates that in the short-run the variables that affects the interest rates in emerging markets are the risk free interest rate (+0.3), the short term interest rate (+0.4) and the American government deficit (+0.1). The variables that affects the equilibrium level are the risk free interest rate (+0.5), risk aversion (+0.1), current account balance (-0.3), inflation (+0.1), trade openness (-0.04) and gross debt (non-linear positive effect). Finally, by examining only the Brazilian case, our model indicates that if the country had maintained the internal fundamentals in line with the average of other emerging markets since the end of 2006, Brazil would reach the end of 2014 with a long-term interest rate of 6.1%, 6 p.p. below the actual value of 12.1%.