本研究以事件研究法的方式，研究歐洲央行宣布量化寬鬆（Quantitative Easing, QE）對歐豬五國信用風險的影響，本研究以各國主權信用違約交換的超額報酬顯著性衡量量化寬鬆政策對信用風險的影響。 研究結果為多數的QE政策宣告對歐豬五國信用風險的影響在事件期中有正向有負向，且時常交錯分布，未有一固定的模式，故無法得到一個明確的結論。 / This paper examines the impact of the ECB’s (European Central Bank) quantitative easing program on the credit risk of PIIGS. In this case, we used each underlying countries’ excess return of their sovereign CDSs to identify if their credit risks are decreased significantly. Our finding was that most QE announcements by the ECB had multiple impacts on the credit risk of PIIGS. They had both positive and negative impacts. Also, the patterns were not the same, so we do not have a clear conclusion on whether the QE policies are good or bad for the credit risk of PIIGS.

Darbe analizuojamas arbitražo procesas, konkretizuojant jį, kai viena iš proceso šalių tampa valstybė. Aptariami esminiai arbitražo, kaip alternatyvaus teismui ginčų sprendimo bruožai tam, kad suvokti paties proceso prigimtį. Gilinamasi į procedūrinius skirtumus, kai atsiranda valstybinė dalyvaujančioji šalis. Aptariamas Lietuvos ir kitų valstybių teisinis reglamentavimas, susijęs su valstybės dalyvavimu arbitražiniame susitarime ir arbitražo procese. Aktualus arbitruotinumo klausimas, su tuo susijusi teismų praktika. Gilinamasi į rizikas, atsirandančias valstybei įsitraukiant į procesą. Taip pat siūlomi šių rizikų sprendimo variantai, nurodomi skirtingų šalių doktrinoje. Plačiau analizuojama suverenaus imuniteto doktrina. Tai yra vienas iš dažniausiai pasitaikančių būdų, kuriuo valstybė stengiasi išvengti atsakomybės ir įsipareigojimų tiek dėl paties arbitražinio susitarimo sudarymo ir galiojimo, tiek dėl priimto sprendimo vykdymo ir pripažinimo. Darbo eigoje aptariami Lietuvos teisės aktai ir tarptautiniai bei kitų valstybių nacionaliniai teisės aktai, aktualūs nagrinėjamiems klausimams. Darbo tikslas – išanalizuoti ir pristatyti proceso bruožus, kai jame dalyvauja valstybė. Tikslo siekiama darbo eigoje analizuojant užsienio teoretikų ir praktikų darbus, teismų praktiką ir norminius teisės aktus. / The analysis of arbitration process, when one of participating parties is a State, is given in this paper. It consists of different parts, each of which examines different features. It beggins with acquiring basic knowledge about arbitration process itself. Presentation of procedural issues and differencies is followed by covering Lithuanian and other countries legal base on questions related to State participation and capacity to enter into arbitration agreement. One of important questions is arbitrability. The analysis of risks when a State participates in an arbitration process is given. Also severeal different approaches, how these risks could be minimised or decreased. The doctrine of sovereign immunity is presented as it is an often excuse of a State party either to respect arbitration agreement or to approve and execute the award. The main object of this paper is to analyse and present features of an arbitration, when a State party participates in it. It is reached by summarising doctrine on these questions as well as case law and national and international legal acts.

L’idée d’une égalité souveraine apparaît en même temps que le système international multilatéral. Bien que l’égalité souveraine soit consacrée explicitement dans la Charte des Nations Unies, le principe reste indéfini. Cette étude propose une définition de l’égalité souveraine en trois facettes : l’égalité formelle, l’égalité législative et l’égalité existentielle. Suite à l’examen des trois dimensions de l’égalité souveraine, une conception stricte de l’égalité souveraine ne peut être soutenue puisque toutes les facettes sont atteintes d’une relativité soit par la légalisation de l’hégémonie, par la bifurcation de l’ordre juridique international, la représentation inégale au sein des institutions multilatérales ou par l’anti-pluralisme. Bref, l’examen de chacune des facettes du principe de l’égalité souveraine démontre que l’égalité souveraine est une fiction juridique. Le principe de l’égalité souveraine peut difficilement être justifié par rapport à la réalité de la société internationale. Il demeure néanmoins utile, ne serait-ce que pour freiner le pouvoir des Grandes Puissances et se poser comme un idéal à atteindre. / The idea of sovereign equality emerged along with the multilateral international system. Although sovereign equality is explicitly entrenched in the United Nations Charter, a definition remains lacking. This study proposes a three dimensional definition of sovereign equality: formal equality, legislative equality and existential equality. Following an in-depth examination of its three dimensions, a strong conception of sovereign equality cannot be sustained because of legalised hegemony, bifurcation of the international legal order, unequal representation within multilateral institutions and anti-pluralism. Hence, the study of each dimension of sovereign equality shows that sovereign equality is a mere legal fiction. It can hardly be justified in light of the reality of international society. Nevertheless, the principle is still relevant for the purpose of restraining the prerogatives of the Great Powers and remains an ideal to achieve.

Le premier volet de cette thèse traite de l’évaluation du risque de crédit. Après un chapitre introductif offrant une synthèse technique des modèles de risque, nous nous intéressons à la modélisation de la dépendance entre les risques de défaut par les copules qui permettent de mieux fonder les mesures du risque de crédit. Ces dernières assurent une description intégrale de la structure de dépendance et ont l’avantage d’exprimer la distribution jointe en termes des distributions marginales. Nous les appréhendons en termes probabilistes telles qu’elles sont désormais familières, mais également selon des perspectives algébriques, démarche à certains égards plus englobante que l’approche probabiliste. Ensuite, nous proposons un modèle général de pricing des dérivés de crédit inspiré des travaux de Cherubini et Luciano (2003) et de Luciano (2003). Nous évaluons un Credit Default Swap « vulnérable », comprenant un risque de contrepartie. Nous y intégrons la Credit Valuation Adjustment (CVA)préconisée par Bâle III pour optimiser l’allocation du capital économique. Nous reprenons la représentation générale de pricing établie par Sorensen et Bollier (1994) et contrairement aux travaux cités ci-dessus, le paiement de protection ne survient pas forcément à l’échéance du contrat. La dépendance entre le risque de contrepartie et celui de l’entité de référence est approchée par les copules. Nous examinons la vulnérabilité du CDS pour des cas de dépendance extrêmes grâce à un choix de copule mixte combinant des copules usuelles « extrêmes ». En variant le rho de Spearman, la copule mixte balaie un large spectre de dépendances, tout en assurant des closed form prices. Le modèle qui en résulte est adapté aux pratiques du marché et facile à calibrer.Nous en fournissons une application numérique. Nous mettons ensuite en évidence le rôle des dérivés de crédit en tant qu’instruments de couvertures mais aussi comme facteurs de risque, accusés d’être à l’origine de la crise des subprime. Enfin, nous analysons cette dernière ainsi que celle des dettes souveraines, héritant également de l’effondrement du marché immobilier américain. Nous proposons à la suite une étude de soutenabilité de la dette publique des pays périphériques surendettés de la zone euro à l’horizon 2016. / The first part of this thesis deals with the valuation of credit risk. After an introductory chapter providing a technical synthesis of risk models, we model the dependence between default risks with the copula that helps enhancing credit risk measures. This technical tool provides a full description of the dependence structure; one could exploit the possibility of writing any joint distribution function as a copula, taking as arguments the marginal distributions. We approach copulas in probabilistic terms as they are familiar nowadays, then with an algebraic approach which is more inclusive than the probabilistic one. Afterwards, we present a general credit derivative pricing model based on Cherubini and Luciano (2003) and Luciano (2003). We price a “vulnerable”Credit Default Swap, taking into account a counterparty risk. We consider theCredit Valuation Adjustment (CVA) advocated by Basel III to optimize theeconomic capital allocation. We recover the general representation of aproduct with counterparty risk which goes back to Sorensen and Bollier (1994)and differently from the papers mentioned above, the payment of protectiondoes not occur necessarily at the end of the contract. We approach the dependence between counterparty risk and the reference credit’s one with the copula. We study the sensitivity of the CDS in extreme dependence cases with a mixture copula defined in terms of the “extreme” ones. By varying the Spearman’s rho, one can explore the whole range of positive and negative association. Furthermore, the mixture copula provides closed form prices. Our model is then closer to the market practice and easy to implement. Later on, we provide an application on credit market data. Then, we highlight the role of credit derivatives as hedging instruments and as risk factors as well since they are accused to be responsible for the subprime crisis. Finally, we analyze the subprime crisis and the sovereign debt crisis which arose from the U.S. mortgage market collapse as well. We then study the public debt sustainability of the heavily indebted peripheral countries of the eurozone by 2016.

Les pays de la zone OHADA observent, depuis une dizaine d’années, un accroissement significatif des opérations de capital-investissement. Les perspectives économiques encourageantes, la relative stabilité politique dans la région ainsi que les prévisions démographiques font de la zone OHADA une cible de premier choix pour les fonds d’investissement, qui y trouvent de formidables opportunités d’investissement et de croissance. Cette nouvelle dynamique nous appelle à nous interroger sur la faculté du droit OHADA à répondre aux exigences juridiques exprimées par ces nouveaux acteurs économiques lors de la conduite de leurs opérations. Cette thèse se propose d’analyser, dans une perspective comparative avec le droit français, les principaux enjeux juridiques du capital-investissement en droit OHADA. Ainsi, y seront étudiés les outils juridiques de prise de participation, la gestion des sociétés cibles, notamment à travers la pratique des pactes d’actionnaires, et enfin, les modalités de sortie de l’investissement. L’objectif annoncé est de déceler les forces et les faiblesses du régime actuel du droit OHADA à l’épreuve des exigences du capital-investissement / In the last decade, the OHADA countries have seen a significant increase in private equity transactions. The OHADA region’s economic outlook, relative political stability and projected population growth make the region of prime interest to investment funds due to tremendous growth and investment opportunities. This new dynamic makes it important to consider OHADA law’s ability to meet the legal requirements of private equity funds in structuring and conducting their operations.This thesis (i) analyses the main legal issues for private equity under OHADA law and (ii) compares the handling of such issues under OHADA law with their handling under French law. As such, this thesis addresses the legal instruments for taking ownership interests, management rules for target companies (including shareholder agreements), and exit strategies. The objective of such analysis is to identify the strengths and weaknesses of the current OHADA law regime from a private equity perspective

Cette thèse de doctorat représente un effort visant à contribuer à la littérature sur le système d'alerte précoce traitant de la prévision de la crise de la dette souveraine et de la compréhension des comportements d’investissement et de croissance des PME dans le contexte de la crise financière mondiale. Le chapitre 1 adresse les crises de la dette à travers un échantillon d'économies émergentes dans la poursuite d'un modèle d'alerte précoce efficace et précis basé sur trois techniques différentes d'exploration de données. Les chapitres 2 et 3 mettent l'accent sur les mécanismes qui sous-tendent l'investissement et la croissance des PME d'un pays en voie de développement dans le contexte de la CFM. Le chapitre 2, réalisé en collaboration avec Majda Seghir, explore le comportement d'investissement des PME en Serbie relatif à la disponibilité des flux de trésorerie générés en interne dans le cadre de la CFM. Il relie cette sensibilité au niveau de contraintes financières comme approximé par les variables telles que la taille de l'entreprise, la structure de propriété, l'effet de levier et la tangibilité de leurs actifs. Finalement, le chapitre 3, travail conjoint avec Michael Stemmer, s'appuie sur l'idée derrière le chapitre 2 pour étudier l'effet des contraintes financières sur la croissance des PME serbes en utilisant le cadre GMM. Nous opposons nos résultats à une économie avancée en faisant une comparaison avec des entreprises belges. / This doctoral thesis represents an effort aimed to contribute to Early Warning System literature dealing with prediction of sovereign debt crisis and understanding of investment and growth behavior of SMEs inthe setting of the global financial crisis. Chapter 1 deals with debt crises over a sample of emerging economies in pursuit of an efficient and accurate early warning model based on three different datamining techniques. In Chapters 2 and 3 the focus is on the mechanisms behind investment and growth of SMEs in a developing country in the context of GFC. Chapter 2, joint work with Majda Seghir, exploresthe investment behavior of SMEs in Serbia with regard to the availability of internally generated cash flowin the context of GFC. It relates this sensitivity to the level of financial constraints as proxied by variables such as firm’s size, ownership structure, leverage and tangibility of their assets. Finally, Chapter 3, done in collaboration with Michael Stemmer, builds on the idea behind Chapter 2 to investigate the effect of financial constraints on growth of Serbian SMEs using GMM framework. We contrast our results with anadvanced economy by running a comparison with Belgian firms.

O objetivo desse trabalho é analisar a influência que fundamentos internos e fatores externos exercem sobre a taxa de juros nominal dos títulos soberanos de longo prazo nos países emergentes. A base de dados engloba 13 países ao longo de 33 trimestres entre 2006 e 2014. A metodologia utilizada aborda as técnicas econométricas mais recentes para tratar dados macroeconômicos. O modelo estimado é o Pooled Mean Group desenvolvido por Pesaran, Shin e Smith (1999). O modelo consegue separar as variáveis que afetam o nível de equilíbrio da taxa de juros das que exercem efeito apenas no curto prazo. Na melhor especificação apresentada, os resultados indicam que as variáveis que causam flutuações de curto prazo na taxa de juros dos países emergentes são a taxa de juros livre de risco (+0,3), a taxa de curto prazo (+0,4) e o déficit do governo americano (+0,1). Já as variáveis que afetam o nível de equilíbrio são a taxa de juros livre de risco (+0,5), a aversão ao risco dos investidores (+0,1), o saldo em conta corrente (-0,3), a inflação (+0,1), a abertura econômica (-0,04) e a dívida bruta (efeito positivo não linear). Por fim, ao analisar exclusivamente o caso brasileiro, nosso modelo indica que se o país tivesse mantido os fundamentos internos em linha com a média dos outros emergentes desde o final de 2006, o Brasil iria chegar ao final de 2014 com uma taxa de juros nominal de longo prazo de 6,1%, 6 p.p. abaixo do valor efetivamente observado que foi de 12,1%. / The aim of this study is to analyze the influence that internal fundamentals and external factors have on long-term sovereign bond yields in emerging markets. The database covers 13 countries over 33 quarters between 2006 and 2014. The methodology addresses the latest techniques to deal with macro panels, such as panel unit root and panel cointegration tests. The estimated model is the Pooled Mean Group developed by Pesaran, Shin e Smith (1999). This model can separate the variables that affect the interest rate equilibrium from the ones that only have an effect in the short-run. In the best specification presented, the results indicates that in the short-run the variables that affects the interest rates in emerging markets are the risk free interest rate (+0.3), the short term interest rate (+0.4) and the American government deficit (+0.1). The variables that affects the equilibrium level are the risk free interest rate (+0.5), risk aversion (+0.1), current account balance (-0.3), inflation (+0.1), trade openness (-0.04) and gross debt (non-linear positive effect). Finally, by examining only the Brazilian case, our model indicates that if the country had maintained the internal fundamentals in line with the average of other emerging markets since the end of 2006, Brazil would reach the end of 2014 with a long-term interest rate of 6.1%, 6 p.p. below the actual value of 12.1%.

Made available in DSpace on 2016-04-26T20:48:42Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 Jackeline Bertuolo Barron Guerra Vicente.pdf: 2125197 bytes, checksum: 4396583e4ad1516ef106634da02b97a2 (MD5) Previous issue date: 2015-03-12 / This work aims at analysing the impacts associated with oil extraction from the Brazilian pre-salt layers, particularly those concerning the balance of trade, the Dutch disease and the deindustrialization process. We present data indicating that Brazil is facing a deindustrialization process due, to a great extent, to the effects of the Dutch disease, which is evident from the reduction of the manufacturing sector s contribution to GDP and from the increasing importance of primary goods exports in the export basket. We consider the potential for wealth creation, the negative impacts associated with oil extraction from pre-salt layers and suggest some alternatives to minimize such impacts. Hence, in order to avoid further aggravation of foreign exchange and deindustrialization problems due to pre-salt oil exports, we present a number of suggested measures, with an emphasis on consistent industrial policies, capable of stimulating various segments, thus reverting the deindustrialization process and directing pre-salt revenues towards the country s social and economic development. Petrobras, the state-owned oil sector company, has played and still plays a strategic role in pre-salt oil discovery and extraction. Moreover, it can be used to foster investments as a way of stimulating the development of its corresponding chain of goods and services / O trabalho tem por objetivo analisar os impactos da exploração do petróleo das camadas do pré-sal brasileiro, especialmente no que se refere à balança comercial, à doença holandesa e ao processo de desindustrialização. São apresentados dados que indicam que o Brasil enfrenta um processo de desindustrialização, em boa parte causado pelos efeitos da doença holandesa, verificado pela redução da participação da indústria manufatureira na composição do PIB e pela reprimarização da pauta de exportação. Avalia-se a potencial riqueza a ser gerada, os impactos negativos da exploração do pré-sal e sugere-se algumas alternativas para reduzir tais impactos. Assim, para evitar que os problemas cambiais e também da desindustrialização se agravem devido ao resultado das exportações do petróleo do pré-sal, são apresentadas algumas discussões para a utilização dos recursos, com ênfase para a instituição de uma política industrial consistente, capaz de estimular vários segmentos, que reverta o processo de desindustrialização e destine as rendas do pré-sal para o desenvolvimento social e econômico do país. A Petrobras, estatal do setor de petróleo, teve e tem um papel estratégico na descoberta e produção do petróleo do pré-sal. Ademais, pode ser utilizada como indutora dos investimentos de modo a estimular o desenvolvimento de toda a cadeia de bens e serviços a ela associada

Alors que le début de la crise de l'euro a relancé le débat sur l’interdépendance du risque decrédit et la relation dette bancaire-dette souveraine, l’importance du secteur réel est négligéedans l’élaboration des mesures de relance de la croissance économique dans la zone euro. Cettethèse se concentre sur ces questions au sein de la zone euro. D’abord, nous évaluons les effets«spillover» de la crise souveraine sur le coût de crédit des entreprises non financières enprésence des mesures d’austérité (Chapitre-I). Nos résultats indiquent un effet significatif de ladette publique sur le coût des prêts. En outre, en période de crise, les mesures d’austéritéimpactent significativement le coût de crédit tandis qu’avant la crise, on note une petite illustrationde la demande agrégée de Keynes. Ensuite, nous montrons que les fonctions traditionnelles desbanques, notamment celle de création de liquidité fragilisent le secteur souverain (Chapitre-II). Enparticulier, nous montrons que le risque de liquidité des banques agit comme un canal depropagation de l'incertitude vers les sociétés non financières et inversement. Enfin, nousexaminons la dynamique du risque de crédit sur la dette souveraine, les entreprises et lesbanques (Chapitre-III). Nos résultats montrent qu’il existe un risque de contagion sur les secteurset les marchés financiers de l’union monétaire. Par ailleurs, les résultats des simulations dechocs de primes de risque des pays «noyaux» de la zone euro confirment l’existence d’effetsindirects sur le reste de la zone. De plus, nous constatons un phénomène de fuite desinvestisseurs vers les valeurs refuges. / The onset of euro crisis has rekindled the policy debate regarding credit risk interdependenceamong sovereign-bank nexus. In this vein, the importance of real sector is overlooked whileformulating corrective measures for the recovery of economic growth in EMU. This thesispresents a study that examined these issues in euro zone. First, we evaluate spillover effect ofeuro crisis on borrowing cost of non-financial firms in presence of austerity measures (Chapter-I).Our results suggest significant effect especially where creditor rights protection are weak. Inaddition during recent crisis, results indicate presence of credibility channel due to austeritymeasures whereas; there is slight indication of aggregate demand channel before crisis. Second,we find traditional function of bank’s liquidity creation as a significant conduit of sovereign distressto real sector (Chapter-II). Particularly, our main finding shows that bank liquidity risk acts as aconduit which propagates uncertainty towards non-financial firms and re-channels it back torespective government. Finally, we examine cross-market credit risk dynamics among sovereignbank-firm nexus to identify presence of contagion during euro crisis period (Chapter-III). Ourresults report grave evidence of credit risk contagion across sectors and member states incorresponding financial markets in EMU. Moreover like peripheral countries, simulation results toshock in core countries risk premia strongly provide evidence of contagion towards remainingeuro zone.

Made available in DSpace on 2016-04-26T20:23:21Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 Alex Pereira Leuterio.pdf: 838505 bytes, checksum: a7414fa464ac399804446b7e123f8acc (MD5) Previous issue date: 2014-09-10 / This research objectives at the investigation of the state of emergency in the light of the work of Giorgio Agamben, in the sense of an instrument capable of, by law, stop the life and rights inherent to it by its own suspension in empty space of law, a zone of anomie. Thus, Agamben historically reports the zone of indifference from institutes of Roman law that produced the stoppage of the law and therefore a legal loophole. Given this finding, Agamben correlates such institutes to the state of contemporary Exception, which is, in fact, permanent, put that in this vacuum, standard and life are connected by force-in-law, which applies, diapplying. Will point out that Agamben begins his argument by examining the political power and its relation to biological life (zoé), analysis of biopower and the movement of inclusive exclusion of biological life in the field of politics and law. Then, we stress that the political work of Giorgio Agamben records the infamous debate between Carl Schmitt and Walter Benjamin, about the sovereign power, from which it extracts the state of permanent exception and the field are paradigms of contemporary politics - like Auschwitz , "homo sacer" and "Muselmann - legitimized by the founding violence of law, the considerations discussed here is done on biopolitics, bare life, the state of exception and force of law, whose solution, for Agamben, is a new form of life, achieved by the desecration, which reflects a community coming, endowed with the ability to disable biopower mentioned, creator of a-bando-ned, and not necessarily linked to the law. In conclusion, upon the concepts and profanation inoperosidade the proposed Agamben turns out something totally new, since this community requires that comes a new ethos, a new use, a shutdown of the old use, rendering them inoperable, since being any will be neither a people united by their similarities (aryans, africans, indians) or divided groups or subgroups, shredded by differences singularity without identity, common and absolutely exposed, the actual path of contemplation of the evangelicmessage of zoé aiónios, of eternal life / Este trabalho tem por objetivo a investigação acerca do Estado de Exceção à luz das obras de Giorgio Agamben, no sentido de um instrumento capaz de, pelo direito, deter a vida e os direitos a ela inerentes pela sua própria suspensão, em espaço vazio de direito, uma zona de anomia. Assim, Agamben reporta historicamente a referida zona de indiferença a institutos de direito romano que produziam a paralisação da lei e, consequentemente, uma lacuna jurídica. Diante desta constatação, Agamben correlaciona tais institutos ao Estado de Exceção contemporâneo, o qual é, em verdade, permanente, posto que, neste vácuo, norma e a vida estão ligadas pela força-de-lei, que se aplica se desaplicando. Apontaremos que Agamben inicia seu raciocínio pelo exame do poder político e sua relação com vida biológica (zoé), pela análise de biopoder e pelo movimento de exclusão inclusiva de vida biológica no campo de vida política e direito. Em seguida, ressaltase que a obra política de Giorgio Agamben registra o famigerado debate entre Carl Schmitt e Walter Benjamin, acerca do poder soberano, donde se extrairá que o Estado de Exceção permanente e o campo são paradigmas da política contemporânea - assim como Auschwitz, homo sacer e Muselmann -, legitimados pela violência fundadora do direito, aqui discutidos nas considerações que se faz sobre biopolítica, vida nua, estado de exceção e força de lei, cuja solução, para Agamben, está em uma nova forma de vida, alcançada pela profanação, que espelha uma comunidade que vem, dotada da capacidade de desativar o mencionado biopoder, criador de a-bando-nados, e não vinculada necessariamente ao direito. Em conclusão, mediante os conceitos de profanação e inoperosidade, a proposta de Agamben revela-se algo totalmente novo, posto que essa comunidade que vem exige um novo ethos, um novo uso, uma desativação do velho uso, tornando-os inoperantes, porquanto o ser qualquer não vai ser nem um povo unido pelas suas semelhanças (os arianos, os negros, os índios) nem grupos ou subgrupos divididos, retalhados pelas diferenças, singularidade sem identidade, comum e absolutamente exposta, a caminho da contemplação efetiva da mensagem evangélica da zoé aiónios, da vida eterna