Syftet med denna studie är att undersöka om det finns ett samband mellan opredicerbara föräldrar och förekomsten av både interna och externa beteendeproblem hos ungdomar. I studien undersöks interna beteendeproblem såsom låg självkänsla och depression samt de externa beteendeproblemen brottslighet och aggression. Studien baseras på 1018 ungdomar i åldrarna 13- 15 år. Studien utgår från en enkätundersökning där fem olika skalor används för att mäta ungdomarnas självkänsla, depression, brottslighet och aggression samt hur konsekventa deras föräldrar är. Resultaten visar i allt väsentligt att de ungdomar som har både interna och externa beteendeproblem är de som rapporterar högst i opredicerbarhet hos sina föräldrar. / The purpose with this study is to investigate if there is an association between unpredictable parents and the occurrence of both internal and external behavior problems among adolescents. The study considers the internalizing behavior problems low self-esteem and depression and the externalizing behavior problems delinquency and aggression. The study consists of 1018 adolescents in ages between 13 and 15 years old. The study is based on a questionnaire where five scales are used to measure the participating adolescent’s self-esteem, depression, delinquency and aggression and their view on how consistent their parents are. The result shows that those adolescents who have both internalizing and externalizing behavior problems where those who reported highest in unpredictability in their parents.

Dans la vie sociale, les besoins sont regardés comme un préalable nécessaire à la définition d’un projet ou à la création d’un service. Pourtant s’ils apparaissent évidents, naturels, ils sont l’objet d’une construction sociale. Cette recherche se propose d’étudier le processus de fabrication des besoins sociaux dans la politique d’accueil des jeunes enfants en France en partant des questions suivantes : comment les besoins adviennent-ils sur la scène publique, dans quelle mesure sont-ils pris en considération, comment sont-ils exprimés ? Trois déterminants des besoins ont été au cœur de l’analyse : le politique, l’individu et le marché. Nous avons montré que les besoins sociaux reçoivent plusieurs formes de « mise en visibilité » pour exister publiquement mais que cette politisation aboutit partiellement à les faire reconnaître comme un vrai problème. Par ailleurs, la reconnaissance des besoins sociaux passe par leur transformation en une « demande sociale ». Dans le secteur de la petite enfance, cette expression est rendue difficile parce que la photographie des besoins qui ressort des enquêtes est très hétérogène, mais aussi en raison de l’existence d’une non-demande (le non-recours au service), et à cause des situations « d’imprévisibilité » dans lesquelles se trouvent les parents par rapport à leur mode d’accueil. Enfin, les besoins sont étroitement liés à ceux qui les couvrent. Dans le cadre du nouveau marché des crèches d’entreprise, un déplacement s’opère : les besoins des familles sont mis en arrière-plan au profit de ceux des entreprises et des collectivités financeurs et potentiels clients des services. Ceci étant, les entreprises de crèches continuent à faire exister les besoins des familles, autrement, de manière plus quantitative, notamment par les plates-formes de réservation de places et par la promotion de deux figures du parent, celle du « salarié-parent » et celle du « parent-prospect ». / In social life, needs are considered as a necessary prerequisite to the definition of a project or the creation of a service. Though they seem obvious and natural, they result from a social construction. This research sets out to study the making process of social needs regarding child care policy in France from the following questions : how do needs arise on public scene, to what extent are they taken into consideration, how are they expressed ? Three determinative were at the heart of our analysis : politics, market and the individual. We have shown that social needs acknowledge several forms of “visibiliting” so as to exist on public scene but that actually this politicization partially succeeds in making them recognize as a real problem. On the other hand, the recognition of social needs goes through their transformation into one social request. In child care field, this expression turns out to be difficult, because the picture of the needs which emerge from surveys is very heterogeneous, owing to the existence of no-requesting (no-resorting to services), because of some situations of “unpredictability” in which parents cope with child minding. Finally, needs are closely linked to those who cover them. Within the context of the firm child care centres’ new market, a transfer has occurred : families’ needs have been relegated to the background to the profit of the firms and local communities’ ones :services’ financing and potential customers. Yet, market continues making families ‘ needs exist but differently, in a more quantitative way, in particular through child care centres’ websites and also by the promotion of both new faces of the parent : “salaried-parent” and “prospect-parent”.

Les résultats de mesures quantiques sont généralement considérés comme aléatoires, mais leur nature aléatoire, malgré son importance dans la théorie de l’information quantique, est mal comprise. Dans cette thèse, nous étudions plusieurs problèmes liés à l’origine et la certification de l’aléatoire et l’imprévisibilité quantique. L’un des résultats clés dans la formation de notre compréhension de la mécanique quantique comme théorie intrinsèquement indéterministe est le théorème de Kochen et Specker, qui démontre l’impossibilité d’attribuer simultanément, de façon cohérente, des valeurs définies et non-contextuelles à chaque observable avant la mesure. Cependant, si nous présumons qu’une observable à valeur définie doit être non-contextuelle, alors lethéorème ne montre que le fait qu’il existe au moins une observable à valeur indéfinie. Nous renforçons ce résultat en démontrant une variante du théorème de Kochen et Specker qui montre que si un système est préparé dans un état quelconque j i, alors chaque observable A est à valeur indéfinie sauf si j i est un état propre de A. La nature indéterministe de la mesure quantique n’explique pas bien la différence de qualité entre l’aléatoire quantique et classique. Soumise à certaines hypothèses physiques, nous montrons qu’une suite de bits produite par la mesure des observables à valeurs indéfinies est garantie, dans la limite infinie, d’être fortement incalculable. De plus, nous discutons comment utiliser ces résultats afin de construire un générateur quantique de nombres aléatoires qui est certifié par des observables à valeurs indéfinies. Dans la dernière partie de cette thèse, nous étudions la notion d’imprévisibilité, qui est au coeur du concept d’aléatoire (quantique). Ce faisant, nous proposons un modèle formel de (im)prévisibilité qui peut servir à évaluer la prévisibilité d’expériences physiques arbitraires. Ce modèle est appliqué aux mesures quantiques afin de comprendre comment la valeur indéfinie et la complémentarité quantique peuvent être utilisées pour certifier différents degrés d’imprévisibilité, et nous démontrons ainsi que le résultat d’une seule mesure d’une observable à valeur indéfinie est formellement imprévisible. Enfin, nous étudions la relation entre cette notion d’imprévisibilité et la certification de l’incalculabilité des suites aléatoires quantiques. / The outcomes of quantum measurements are generally considered to be random, but despite the fact that this randomness is an important element in quantum information theory, its nature is not well understood. In this thesis, we study several issues relating to the origin and certification of quantum randomness and unpredictability. One of the key results in forming our understanding of quantum mechanics as an intrinsically indeterministic theory is the Kochen-Specker theorem, which shows the impossibility to consistently assign simultaneous noncontextual definite values to all quantum mechanical observables prior to measurement. However, the theorem, under the assumption that any definite values must be noncontextual, only strictly shows that some observables must be value indefinite. We strengthen this result, proving a stronger variant of the Kochen-Specker theorem showing that, under the same assumption, if a system is prepared in an arbitrary state j i, then every observable A is value indefinite unless j i is an eigenstate of A. The indeterministic nature of quantum measurements does little to explain how the quality of quantum randomness differs from classical randomness. We show that, subject to certain physical assumptions, a sequence of bits generated by the measurement of value indefinite observables is guaranteed, in the infinite limit, to be strongly incomputable. We further discuss how this can be used to build a quantum random number generator certified by value indefiniteness. Next, we study the notion of unpredictability, which is central to the concept of (quantum) randomness. In doing so, we propose a formal model of prediction that can be used to asses the predictability of arbitrary physical experiments. We investigate how the quantum features of value indefiniteness and complementarity can be used to certify different levels of unpredictability, and show that the outcome of a single measurement of a value indefinite quantum observable is formally unpredictable. Finally, we study the relation between this notion of unpredictability and the computability-theoretic certification of quantum randomness.

Made available in DSpace on 2016-12-23T14:38:03Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 Dissertacao de Anna Beatriz Carnielli Howat Rodrigues.pdf: 617372 bytes, checksum: e427988ae1c37beaa0f608a4312d61ef (MD5) Previous issue date: 2010-12-08 / Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior / Propõe-se que a percepção da imprevisibilidade de recursos durante a infância promove o desenvolvimento de um modelo mental de imprevisibilidade, precursor da preferência pela obtenção imediata do recurso (desconto do futuro) e propensão ao risco, como forma de maximizar as chances de obtenção destes recursos percebidos como imprevisíveis. A aparente irracionalidade destes comportamentos (desconto do futuro e propensão ao risco) podem ser interpretadas como respostas adaptativas a ambientes imprevisíveis produzidas por mecanismos cognitivos de processamento de informações sobre o ambiente, selecionados ao longo da evolução humana. Esta dissertação teve por objetivo investigar relações existentes entre dimensões de imprevisibilidade familiar na infância, propensão ao risco e desconto de futuro. Participaram 394 pessoas, sendo 158 adultos em conflito com a lei que já haviam passado pela prisão (média de idade=34.23 anos; dp=10.17), 122 jovens universitários (M=19.26; dp=2.06) e 114 mulheres com idade superior a 40 anos e escolaridade a partir de ensino médio (M=51.19; dp=8.64). Trabalhamos com a hipótese de que percepções de imprevisibilidade familiar na infância favoreceriam escolhas de curto prazo e maior propensão ao risco. Utilizamos o procedimento de escolhas monetárias de desconto do futuro e as Escalas de Imprevisibilidade Familiar na Infância (EIFI) e de Propensão ao Risco (EPRE), validadas para a população brasileira nos dois primeiros artigos desta dissertação. Ambas as escalas apresentaram solução fatorial de quatro fatores com índices de confiabilidade satisfatórios para fins de pesquisa. Os resultados do terceiro artigo apontaram relação parcial entre os construtos de risco e imprevisibilidade, todavia, baixa relação com o valor de desconto do futuro. Os grupos diferiram em relação ao desconto do futuro (ANOVA), à propensão ao risco (retirados os efeitos da renda MANCOVA) e à imprevisibilidade familiar na infância (retirados os efeitos da idade e da renda MANCOVA). O grupo que exibiu maiores médias de imprevisibilidade, também foi aquele com maiores taxas de desconto do futuro (adultos em conflito com a lei), indicando alguma relação entre estas variáveis, principalmente no domínio de recursos financeiros. Variáveis de risco, todavia, comportaram-se de maneira não esperada com a imprevisibilidade e o desconto 12 do futuro. Concluímos, a partir da abordagem multidimensional utilizada, que as relações entre os construtos não ocorrem de forma linear como proposto inicialmente. Apontamos para a possibilidade de ampliação do estudo destas relações considerando modelos não lineares e refinamento das hipóteses evolucionistas / It is proposed that the perception of resource unpredictability during childhood promotes the development of a mental model of unpredictability, precursor of the preference for the immediate attainment of the resource (future discount) and for risk-taking, as a way of maximizing the chances of obtaining those resources perceived as unpredictable. The apparent irrationality of those behaviors (future discount and risk-taking) could be interpreted as adaptive responses to unpredictable environments produced by cognitive mechanisms of information processing on the environment, selected over human evolution. This study aimed to investigate relations between childh od family unpredictability dimensions, risk-taking and future discount. It included 394 people: 158 adults in conflict with the law that had already been in prison (mean age = 34.23 years; sd=10.17), 122 college students (M=19.26; sd=2.06) and 114 women above 40 years old and at least high school concluded (M=51.19; sd=8.64). We hypothesized that perceptions of childhood family unpredictability would favor short term choices and greater risk-taking. We used the procedure of monetary choice to evaluate future discount, the Childhood Family Unpredictability Scale (EIFI) and Specifc Risk-Taking Scale (EPRE), validated for the Brazilian population in the first two papers of this work. Both scales showed factor structure of four factors with satisfactory reliability indexes for research purposes. The results of the third paper indicated partial relation between the constructs of risk-taking and unpredictability, however, low relation of those and future discounting. The groups differed in relation to future discount (ANOVA), risk-taking (removed the effects of income MANCOVA) and family unpredictability (removed the effects of age and income MANCOVA). The group that exhibited the highest means of unpredictability also exhibited higher rates of future discount (adults in conflict with the law), indicating some relationship among these variables, especially in the area of financial resources. Risk-taking variables, however, behaved in an unexpected way with unpredictability and future discount. We concluded, considering the multidimensional approach, that relations among the constructs may not be linear as originally proposed. We indicate the possibility of expanding the study of these relations considering nonlinear models and refinement of evolutionary hypotheses. 14 Key-words: unpredictability, risk attitudes, Evolutionary Psychology, psychological measure, Life History Theory

O trabalho tem por objetivo à análise jurídica do plano de recuperação e suas consequências práticas, questionando até que ponto o objetivo de um acordo imposto será alcançado, tendo em vista os diferentes interesses em jogo. A primeira parte é dedicada ao exame das disciplinas da recuperação, traçando um histórico evolutivo deste instrumento a partir da concordata. Neste ponto, são apresentadas as teorias quanto a sua natureza jurídica. A segunda parte, por sua vez, aponta breves considerações de como o direito alienígena disciplina a recuperação. Na terceira parte, o trabalho analisa a recuperação como jogo estratégico, pois existem riscos inerentes a sua execução. Isso porque, do ponto de vista econômico, o plano de recuperação, por ser contrato incompleto, impõe riscos, por portar variáveis não previstas, como por exemplo, a mudança de política econômica ou a crise financeira mundial. Assim sendo, o trabalho analisa as possibilidades de renegociação dos termos do plano, bem como as soluções que podem ser usadas quando da incompletude. Neste sentido, analisa os mecanismos da arbitragem, da governança coorporativa e da cláusula hardship, além dos princípios da boa-fé objetiva, função social do contrato, função social da empresa e teoria da imprevisão. Como a recuperação judicial e extrajudicial representam meios de reestruturação que beneficiam a coletividade de interessados: estando de um lado o devedor que pretende obter prazos para o cumprimento de suas obrigações; de outro lado os credores que visualizam uma forma de obter seus créditos, ainda existem outros (credores) que poderão discordar da proposta. Para sanar esta possibilidade (do credor buscar a solução individual de seus interesses em contraposição àqueles coletivos dos credores) a Lei 11.101/05 criou a modalidade impositiva, na qual se impõe aos dissidentes o acordo dos que aderiram voluntariamente. Por este motivo, há divergências quanto a natureza jurídica do plano de recuperação. Neste sentido, a quarta parte do trabalho traz considerações quanto a natureza jurídica dos planos de recuperação judicial e extrajudicial. / The aim of this work is assess the legal analysis of a judicial recovery plan and its practical consequences, questioning to what extent the objective of an agreement will be reached if come into force, given the different interests at stake. The first part deals with the consideration of the disciplines of recovery, tracing the evolutionary history of this instrument from a point of concordata. At this point, theories as to their legal nature are presented. The second part, in turn, brings brief considerations of how the foreign laws discipline the recovery. In the third part, the paper examines the recovery as a strategic game, since there are risks inherent in its execution. From an economic point of view, these risks arise from an incomplete contract carrying unforeseen variables, for instance, the change in the economic policy as well as the world wide financial crisis. So, the paper analyzes the possibilities of renegotiating the terms of the plan, as well as solutions that can be used when the incompleteness. In this sense, analyzing the mechanisms of arbitration, corporate governance and the hardship clause, in addition to the principles of objective good faith, the contract´s social function, the company\'s social function and theory of unpredictability. As the judicial and extrajudicial´s recovery represents means of restructuring, which benefits the collective of the people involved: on one side the debtor who wishes to obtain deadlines for compliance with its obligations, on the other side creditors who see a way to get their credits back, and also there are others (creditors) who may disagree with the proposal. To address this possibility (the creditor seeking the solution of his individual interests as opposed to those collective interests of creditors) Law 11.101/05 created the imposing form, which is imposed on dissidents, the agreement of those who joined voluntarily. For this reason, there are differences of opinion about the legal nature of the recovery plan. In this sense, the fourth part of the work brings the legal considerations in plans and extra-judicial recovery.

A presente dissertação tem como tema central a onerosidade excessiva na revisão e extinção dos contratos no direito civil brasileiro. Ela aborda as hipóteses de rompimento do princípio do equilíbrio econômico contratual na fase de execução dos contratos em virtude da superveniência de fatos extraordinários e imprevisíveis que interrompem sua originária relação de equivalência. O presente estudo divide-se em seis grandes partes. Em primeiro lugar, fazem-se necessárias uma introdução e uma descrição da problemática relacionada ao tema. Em seguida, apresenta-se a origem histórica da revisão e da extinção contratual a partir do exame da cláusula rebus sic stantibus. Feito isso, são relatadas as teorias que as fundamentam pela doutrina e pela jurisprudência antes do advento do texto legal expresso que trata da matéria. Concluída essa fase histórica, analisa-se o direito positivo brasileiro vigente, primeiramente, por questões cronológicas, a revisão por onerosidade excessiva no Código de Defesa do Consumidor. Posteriormente, as disposições legais inseridas no Código Civil que possibilitam a revisão e resolução dos contratos por onerosidade excessiva, com uma análise dogmática dos pressupostos positivos e negativos necessários à aplicação dos arts. 317 e 478 do Código Civil. Em seguida, o estudo procura analisar algumas questões pontuais relacionadas à aplicação dos dois artigos, tais como: (i) quem tem legitimidade e interesse para requerer a revisão e resolução dos contratos, de acordo com os arts. 317 e 478 do Código Civil, respectivamente; (ii) qual é o papel do juiz na revisão e resolução dos contratos, de acordo com os arts. 317 e 478 do Código Civil, respectivamente; e (iii) se há concorrência na aplicação desses artigos ou deve ser observado um procedimento sequencial em atenção ao princípio da preservação dos contratos. Finalmente, o trabalho apresenta breve síntese e conclusões. / This dissertation brings at its core the topic of excessive burden on the revision and termination of contracts pursuant to Brazilian Civil Law. Accordingly, this study discusses the hypothesis of breaking the principle of contractual economic balance in the execution phase of contracts, due to the supervenience of extraordinary and unpredictable facts, which interrupts its original equivalence relation. The current study is divided into six major parts. It is necessary at first to consider the introduction and delimitation of the core subject. Ensuingly, the historical origin regarding the revision and termination of contracts is presented, pursuant to the contemplation of the rebus sic stantibus clause. Subsequently, the theories used as grounds are laid down, through Brazilian doctrine and case law, prior to the upcoming of the express legal text dealing with the subject. Upon the conclusion of the historical phase, the Civil Code the current ruling positive law is analyzed, as to explain the concept of excessive burden present in the Consumer Code. Sequentially, the legal dispositions inserted in the Civil Code, which enable the revision and resolution of contracts through excessive burden, bearing a dogmatic analysis of the positive and negative assumptions necessary to the application of articles 317 and 478 of the Civil Code. Certain correlated topics are then also dealt with, complementing the understanding and analysis of the aforementioned articles of the Civil Code, such as: (i) who possesses the legitimacy and interest in requesting the revision and resolution of contracts, pursuant to articles 317 and 478 of the Civil Code, respectively; (ii) what exactly is the role of the judge in the revision and resolution of contracts, according to articles 317 and 478 of the Civil Code, respectively; and (iii) whether said articles in anyway clash in their application or if a sequential procedure directed at the preservation of contracts must be observed. Finally, the study presents a brief summary and conclusions.

Background: Primary Healthcare Centers [PHC] represent the first healthcare contact that patients have, unless they are critically ill or their state is life-threathening. Distric nurse´s work in PHC requires preparedness to meet people in different ages and varying cultural and ethnical backgrounds. This preparedness includes an independent and person-centred workway. The study´s theoretical framework therefore proceeds from person-centred care. Challenging encounters occur in district nurse´s meetings with patients. The concept complex healthcare encounters exists in the competence description of the district nurses and in educational regulatory contexts. Despite of this, there is no general definition of the concept and what it is characterized by. Aim: The aim of this study is to describe district nurse´s experiences of complex healthcare encounters. Method: A qualitative, descriptive, inductive content analysis is used as the analysis method. Six focusgroup-interviews were contucted with nurses and districs nurses working in PHC. Results: District nurse´s experiences of complex healthcare encounters contains to balance unpredictable encounters with predictable organizational terms. This is described as: To meet people with varying lifesituations and To care professionally within organizational conditions. Conclusion: District nurses experience complex healthcare encounters characterized by the coexistence of unpredictable meetings with people and predictable organizational terms. By developing the knowledge about complex healthcare encounters, district nurses can streamline the care simultaneously as the mission of the district nurse can be explicated. / Bakgrund: Vårdcentraler är vårdsökandes första vårdinstans om inte vårdbehovet är akut eller livshotande. Distriktssköterskors arbete på vårdcentraler medför beredskap att möta människor i olika åldrar och med varierande kulturella och etniska bakgrunder. Denna beredskap inrymmer ett självständigt och personcentrerat arbetssätt. Examensarbetets teoretiska referensram utgår därmed från personcentrerad vård. Utmanande vårdsituationer uppstår i distriktssköterskors möten med vårdsökande människor. Begreppet komplexa vårdsituationer förekommer i distriktssköterskors kompetensbeskrivande och utbildningsreglerande dokument. Dock saknas en gemensam bild av vad detta begrepp karaktäriseras av. Syfte: Syftet är att beskriva distriktssköterskors erfarenheter av komplexa vårdsituationer på vårdcentral. Metod: En kvalitativ, deskriptiv innehållsanalys med en induktiv ansats har används som analysmetod. Sex fokusgruppsintervjuer med distriktssköterskor och sjuksköterskor som arbetar på vårdcentral har genomförts. Resultat: Distriktssköterskors erfarenheter av komplexa vårdsituationer på vårdcentral innehåller att balansera mellan oförutsägbara möten med människor och förutsägbara organisatoriska villkor. Detta beskrivs som: Att möta människor i varierande livssituationer och Att vårda professionellt med givna organisatoriska förutsättningar. Slutsats: Distriktssköterskorna erfar komplexa vårdsituationer som karaktäriseras av att oförutsägbara möten med människor och förutsägbara organisatoriska villkor samexisterar. Genom kunskapsutveckling om komplexa vårdsituationer kan distriktssköterskor effektivisera vården samtidigt som distriktssköterskors uppdrag förtydligas.

No description available.

La problématique du financement du développement dans les pays en développement se trouve au coeur de cette thèse. Cette dernière s'articule autour de quatre chapitres sur les questions liées au financement du développement. Le chapitre 1 explore les effets des épisodes budgétaires dans les principaux pays donateurs principaux de l'OCDE (Organisation pour la Coopération et le Développement Economique) sur leur offre d'aide au développement aux pays en développement. On observe que les épisodes budgétaires affectent significativement l'offre d'aide, avec une différence comportementale en termes d'offre d'aide du groupe de pays de l'Union européenne versus le groupe de pays de l'OCDE n'appartenant pas à L'Union européenne. Le chapitre 2 s'intéresse aux conséquences des transferts des migrants et de l'imprévisibilité de l'aide au développement sur la probabilité de consolidation budgétaire dans les pays en développement. Les résultats montrent que les transferts des migrants affectent positivement et significativement cette probabilité alors que l'effet est statistiquement nul pour l'imprévisibilité de l'aide. Ces résultats suggèrent en l'occurrence qu'une meilleure gestion des recettes issues de ces transferts durant les périodes de boom économique pourrait aider à éviter de telles situations et offrir une marge de manoeuvre plus importante à ces gouvernements pour la mise en oeuvre de politiques contra-cycliques pendant les périodes de basse conjoncture. Le chapitre 3 analyse l'existence ou non d'effet de la vulnérabilité structurelle des pays en développement sur leur dette publique totale. Les résultats suggèrent qu'un tel effet existe : en l'occurrence, on montre l'existence d'une relation en forme de 'U' entre la vulnérabilité structurelle de ces pays et leur dette publique totale. En focalisant dans le chapitre 4 sur les pays de la zone Franc CFA, nous examinons si leur vulnérabilité structurelle conduit les gouvernements à un endettement excessif. Les résultats suggèrent que plus ces pays sont vulnérables, plus ils sont enclins à un endettement excessif et qu'au-delà d'un seuil de vulnérabilité, leur probabilité d'endettement excessif diminue. Ces résultats obtenus aussi bien pour l'ensemble des pays en développement que pour les pays de la zone Franc CFA suggère que les Institutions Internationales telles que la Banque Mondiale et le Fonds Monétaire International (FMI) devront prendre en compte cette vulnérabilité dans l'évaluation des politiques de développement ainsi que leurs recommandations – en particulier sur les questions liées à l'endettement – pour ces pays. / The issue of financing development in developing countries is at the heart of this thesis. The latter revolves around four chapters on financing development related matters. The chapter 1 explores how fiscal episodes in the main traditional OECD (Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development) donors affect their supply of development aid towards developing countries. Evidence is shown that fiscal episodes affect significantly aid supply, with a behavioural difference between European Union and Non-European countries in terms of aid supply. The chapter 2 deals with the consequences of development aid unpredictability and migrants' remittances on fiscal consolidation in developing countries. We find evidence that while migrants' remittances exert a positive and significant effect on the likelihood of fiscal consolidation in developing countries, development aid unpredictability does not. These results particularly suggest that a better management of the revenues derived from these private transfers during their booms could help avoid such situations and allow greater room of maneuver for governments’ recipients to implement countercyclical measures during bad times. The chapter 3 investigates whether the structural vulnerability of developing countries matters for their public indebtedness and evidence is obtained that it does. More specifically, we observe the existence of U-curve relationship between this structural vulnerability and the total public debt of these countries. Focusing on the specific case of CFA Franc Zone countries in chapter 4, we examine the relationship between the structural vulnerability and the probability of entering into excessive public debt. We also obtain evidence of a nonlinear effect of the structural vulnerability indicator with respect to the probability of entering into excessive debt: a rise in the structural vulnerability of these countries increases their probability to engage into excessive debt; however this probability declines after a certain threshold of their structural vulnerability. These results (both for developing countries and particularly for CFA Franc Zone countries) suggest that international development institutions such as the World Bank and International Monetary Fund (IMF) should take into account such vulnerability in their assessment of the adequate development policies and recommendations - especially those related to debt issues -, to these countries.

La chance est une notion hétérogène en droit administratif. Les manifestations de ses différentes acceptions sont en effet nombreuses tant le hasard, les probabilités et le risque auxquels la chance renvoie sont riches d’applications concrètes. Les effets de ceux-ci sont donc également, et sans surprise, très variés, de sorte que la perméabilité du droit administratif est à leur égard teintée de singularité selon qu’ils sont respectivement considérés comme bénéfiques ou néfastes. Ainsi, les probabilités sont l’illustration de ce que la chance peut être un outil utile au juge administratif dans le prononcé de ses jugements, tandis que le hasard et le risque renvoient tous deux à la survenance d’événements ou de phénomènes imprévisibles qui cherchent à être évités. Malgré toutes les subtilités déployées par la chance en droit administratif, celle-ci se révèle néanmoins comme une notion dont l’unité apparaît au stade de l’étude de sa fonction. La chance est alors une notion fonctionnelle qui a vocation à être de plus en plus employée par le juge administratif pour améliorer l’indemnisation délivrée aux administrés, tant d’un point de vue qualitatif que quantitatif. / Chance is an heterogeneous notion in administrative law. The manifestations of its different meanings are indeed quite abundant in the sense that the coincidences, the probabilities and the risk that chance refers to are full of tangible applications. Their effects are equally, and unsurprisingly, very varied which means that the permeability of administrative law towards them is quite unique, depending on whether they are considered to be beneficial or adverse. So, probabilities illustrate how chance can be a useful tool for the administrative judge when pronouncing a judgment, whereas coincidences and risk both reflect back on the occurrence of events or unpredictable phenomenons which one would aim to avoid. Inspite of all the subtleties deployed by chance in administrative law, it nevertheless seems to be a notion, the unity of which appears to be at the study stage of its function. Chance is then a functional notion, the vocation of which is to be used more and more often by the administrative judge in order to improve the compensation awarded to citizens both from a qualitative and quantitative point of view.