• Refine Query
  • Source
  • Publication year
  • to
  • Language
  • 397
  • 176
  • 67
  • 37
  • 29
  • 28
  • 24
  • 24
  • 15
  • 11
  • 8
  • 7
  • 6
  • 4
  • 4
  • Tagged with
  • 949
  • 113
  • 101
  • 85
  • 79
  • 64
  • 60
  • 60
  • 55
  • 55
  • 48
  • 47
  • 45
  • 44
  • 44
  • About
  • The Global ETD Search service is a free service for researchers to find electronic theses and dissertations. This service is provided by the Networked Digital Library of Theses and Dissertations.
    Our metadata is collected from universities around the world. If you manage a university/consortium/country archive and want to be added, details can be found on the NDLTD website.
551

Electoral Rules, Political Parties, and Peace Duration in Post-conflict States

Kisin, Tatyana Tuba Kelman 12 1900 (has links)
This dissertation examines the following research question: Which types of electoral rules chosen in post-conflict states best promote peace? And are those effects conditional upon other factors? I argue that the effects are conditional upon the types of political parties that exist in the post-conflict environment. Although this explanation is contrary to scholars that speak of political parties as products of the electoral system, political parties often predate the choice of electoral system. Especially in post-conflict states, political parties play an important role in the negotiation process and hence in the design of the electoral rules. I argue that the effects of electoral rules on peace duration are mitigated by the degree to which a party system is broad (nonexclusive) or narrow (exclusive). I develop a theoretical model that led to three hypotheses focusing on the independent role that political parties play in mitigating the effects of electoral rules on peace duration. To test these hypotheses, I use the Cox proportional hazard model on 57 post-conflict states from 1990 to 2009 and had competitive elections. The empirical results show support for the main argument of this study. First, the findings show that electoral rules alone do not increase or decrease the risk of civil war outbreak, yet when interacting with the degree to which political parties are broad or narrow, there is a significant effect on the outbreak of civil war. Second, the results show that post-conflict states with party centered electoral systems (closed list PR system) are less likely to have an outbreak of civil war when more seats in the parliament are controlled by broad-based parties. In addition, I conduct a comparative case study analysis of two post-conflict states, Angola (1975-1992) and Mozambique (1975-1994), using the most similar systems (MSS) research design.
552

Derrida et Bergson : dialogue médiat sur la question de l'immédiat

Fradet, Pierre-Alexandre 08 1900 (has links)
Si le rapport entre Derrida et Bergson n’a pas fait l’objet de nombreuses études, les commentaires existants témoignent à peu près tous d’une vision commune : entre les deux philosophes, les divergences peuvent être atténuées, voire dissoutes, par la considération de convergences plus fondamentales. Les pages qui suivent seront l’occasion pour nous de faire contrepoids à cette vulgate interprétative. Sans nier l’existence de points de contact entre Derrida et Bergson, nous voudrions en effet montrer qu’un important désaccord subsiste entre eux au sujet de la possibilité de l’intuition. Alors que Derrida met en cause les doctrines intuitionnistes, Bergson érige l’intuition en méthode philosophique. Le présent mémoire prendra pour fil conducteur les motifs de cette discorde. Réduit à sa plus simple expression, l’objectif que nous y poursuivrons sera de montrer que les pensées bergsonienne et derridienne, lorsque mises en dialogue, révèlent un désaccord partiel qui permet de réfléchir de façon féconde sur la possibilité de l’intuition. Pour être plus exact, nous caresserons ici une triple ambition : i/ cerner étroitement l’objet du litige entre Derrida et Bergson, trop peu souligné par les commentateurs, et dont nous montrons qu’il s’articule à une entente partielle ; ii/ tirer au clair les diverses raisons qui amènent l’un à s’en prendre à l’intuition, l’autre à embrasser la méthode intuitive ; iii/ établir que certains arguments de Bergson, bien qu’ils connaissent un regain d’intérêt depuis quelques années, paraissent lacunaires lorsqu’on les confronte à différentes objections. / Although studies of the relation between Derrida and Bergson are few and far between, they nearly all share a common vision: that of attenuating – or even altogether eliminating – the divisions between the two philosophers’ thought, by considering their more fundamental convergences. The following pages will allow us to counterbalance this common interpretation. Without denying the points that Derrida and Bergson do have in common, we will show an important divergence in opinion between the two on the idea that intuition is possible and founded. While Derrida lays doubt on intuitionist doctrine, Bergson establishes intuition as a philosophical method. This thesis examines the motives behind this divergence. Put simply, a comparison of Derridian and Bergsonian thought reveals a partial disagreement that enables fruitful reflection about whether or not intuition is possible. More precisely, we pursue three objectives here: i/ to clearly identify the scope of the disagreement between Derrida and Bergson, often overlooked by previous commentaries, showing that it includes a partial agreement; ii/ to clarify the diverse reasons leading Derrida to deny the very existence of intuition while Bergson embraces intuition as a philosophical method; and iii/ to show that certain Bergsonian arguments, although enjoying a resurge in interest in recent years, appear unable to stand up to several different objections.
553

Développement de la sensibilité des neurones du collicule supérieur à la durée de la stimulation auditive

Lainesse, Michaël 11 1900 (has links)
Chez plusieurs espèces, les neurones auditifs sensibles à la durée de la stimulation sont présents au niveau des collicules inférieurs. Toutefois, le décours temporel de leur développement fonctionnel est inconnu. Étant donné que le collicule supérieur est l’un des principaux relais sous-cortical impliqué dans l’intégration des stimuli audio-visuels, nous voulons déterminer si le collicule supérieur du rat contient de tels neurones et s’ils sont sensibles et sélectifs à différentes durées de stimulation auditive. De plus, l'originalité de cette étude est de déterminer les étapes de leur maturation fonctionnelle. Des enregistrements neuronaux unitaires et extra-cellulaires sont effectués dans le collicule supérieur de rats juvéniles (P15-P18, P21-P24, P27-P30) et adultes anesthésiés. La sensibilité à la durée est déterminée lors de la présentation de bruits gaussiens (2-10 dB SPL au-dessus du seuil) de durées variables (3-100 ms). Seulement un faible pourcentage des neurones du collicule supérieur est de type passe-bande (3-9% des neurones parmi les ratons et 20% chez les rats adultes). Une différence significative de la distribution entre les différents types de neurones auditifs sensibles à la durée est présente au cours du développement: les neurones de type passe-haut (63-75%) sont présents en majorité chez les groupes juvéniles alors que 43% des neurones sont de type insensible à la durée de la stimulation auditive chez les rats adultes. Ces résultats montrent qu’une population importante de neurones auditifs du collicule supérieur du rat est sensible à la durée des signaux sonores et qu’un développement fonctionnel important survient au cours du premier mois postnatal. / In many species, duration-sensitive neurons which could possibly analyse species-specific vocalizations are encountered in the inferior colliculus. However, their postnatal development is unknown. Since the superior colliculus is one of the most important subcortical relay implicated in the audiovisual integration, we sought to gain insight on whether the SC of the rat contains such neurons and, if so, whether they are sensitive and selective to duration. Furthermore, the originality of this study is to determine their fonctional maturation. Extracellular single-unit recordings were assessed in the deep layers of the superior colliculus of anesthetized rats throughout postnatal days (P15 – P18, P21 – P24, P27 – P30) and at adulthood. Gaussian noises of different durations (3-100 ms) were presented in free-field in pseudo-random order (2 – 10 dB SPL above threshold). Only few neurons are band-pass: about 3 – 9% across the different age groups (P15 – P30) and 20 % in adults. Thus, in terms of categories of duration-sensitive neurons profiles, a significant difference was evident across postnatal development: long-pass (63-75%) neurons were mostly encountered in the different groups of pups relative to all-pass (43%) in adult rats. These results demonstrate that a large population of neurons in the superior colliculus of the rat is sensitive to noise durations and that important development changes occur during postnatal maturation.
554

Akustické vlastnosti slovního přízvuku ve čtené české anglictině / Acoustic properties of word stress in read Czech English

Liska, Jan January 2011 (has links)
key words: Czech English, foreign accent, word stress, word accent, stressed syllable, duration, f0, acoustic cues. This study investigates the acoustic properties of word stress in Czech English. The notion of foreign accent is introduced and its drawbacks are presented. Further on the various influences on the perceived degree, or strength, of foreign accent are discussed. Faulty realization of word stress is identified as one of the factors that contribute to unintelligibility of non-native speech (Benrabah, 1997; Hahn, 2004; Cutler, 1984). In Chapter 2 we compare the results of studies that used speakers of a variety of languages and form a basic theory on the acquisition of acoustic cues to word stress. We are mostly interested in f0 and duration. This theory, based on the feature hypothesis (McAllister et al., 2002 in Lee, Guion & Harada, 2006), states that languages that have a similar stress system to that of English (Dutch, Arabic) use their native cues to signal word stress, while non-contrastive languages (Vietnamese, Czech) prefer cue/s that are phonologically active on segmental level in their native language. Speakers of Vietnamese, a tone language, were found to prefer f0 over duration (Nguyen, 2003), so for Czech, a language that uses phonological vowel duration, it is expected that...
555

Storm Water Management Using a High Density Rainfall Network Along With Long Term Records

Mokhtarnejad, Siamak N. 19 December 2008 (has links)
The United States Weather Bureau had published Technical Paper No. 40 (TP-40) in 1961 which provides a rainfall atlas for the United States. These rainfall frequencies have been used by engineers throughout the United States including Jefferson Parish, Louisiana. Rainfall from Audubon and the New Orleans International Airport rain gauge stations were used with the Log Pearson Method to provide rainfall frequency for Jefferson Parish, Louisiana. The results from the frequency rainfall that were developed for this research along with the current Jefferson Parish design storm rainfall were applied to a typical urban development to evaluate the extent of flooding.
556

Mission Concept for a Satellite Mission to Test Special Relativity

Anadol, Volkan January 2016 (has links)
In 1905 Albert Einstein developed the theory of Special Relativity. This theory describes the relation between space and time and revolutionized the understanding of the universe. While the concept is generally accepted new experimental setups are constantly being developed to challenge the theory, but so far no contradictions have been found. One of the postulates Einsteins theory of Relativity is based on states that the speed of light in vacuum is the highest possible velocity. Furthermore, it is demanded that the speed of light is independent of any chosen frame of reference. If an experiment would find a contradiction of these demands, the theory as such would have to be revised. To challenge the constancy of the speed of light the socalled Kennedy Thorndike experiment has been developed. A possible setup to conduct a Kennedy Thorndike experiment consists of comparing two independent clocks. Likewise experiments have been executed in laboratory environments. Within the scope of this work, the orbital requirements for the first space-based Kennedy Thorndike experiment called BOOST will be investigated.BOOST consists of an iodine clock, which serves as a time reference, and an optical cavity, which serves as a length reference. The mechanisms of the two clocks are different and can therefore be employed to investigate possible deviations in the speed of light. While similar experiments have been performed on Earth, space offers many advantages for the setup. First, one orbit takes roughly 90 min for a satellite based experiment. In comparison with the 24 h duration on Earth it is obvious that a space-based experiment offers higher statistics. Additionally the optical clock stability has to be kept for shorter periods, increasing the sensitivity. Third, the velocity of the experimental setup is larger. This results in an increased experiment accuracy since any deviation in the speed of light would increase with increasing orbital velocity. A satellite planted in a Low Earth Orbit (LEO) travels with a velocity of roughly 7 km/s. Establishing an Earth-bound experiment that travels with a constant velocity of that order is impossible. Finally, space offers a very quiet environment where no disturbances, such as vibrations, act upon the experiment, which is practically unavoidable in a laboratory environment. This thesis includes two main chapters. The chapter titled "Mission Level" exploits orbital candidates. Here, possible orbits are explained in detail and the associated advantages and problems are investigated. It also contains a discussion about ground visibility and downlink feasibility for each option. Finally, a nominal mission scenario is sketched. The other chapter is called "Sub-Systems". Within this chapter the subsystems of the spacecraft are examined. To examine the possible orbits it is necessary to define criteria according to which the quality of the orbits can be determined. The first criterion reflects upon the scientific outcome of the mission. This is mainly governed by the achievable velocity and the orbital geometry. The second criterion discriminates according to the mission costs. These include the launch, orbital injection, de-orbiting, satellite development, and orbital maintenance. The final criteria defines the requirements in terms of mission feasibility and risks, e.g. radiation. The criteria definition is followed by explaining the mission objectives and requirements. Each requirement is then discussed in terms of feasibility. The most important parameters, such as altitude, inclination, and the right ascension of the ascending node (RAAN), are discussed for each orbital option and an optimal range is picked. The optimal altitude depends on several factors, such as the decay rate, radiation concerns, experimental contributions, and eclipse duration. For the presented mission an altitude of 600 km seems to be the best fit. Alongside the optimal altitude possible de-orbiting scenarios are investigated. It is concluded that de-orbiting of the satellite is possible without any further external influence. Thus, no additional thrusters are required to de-orbit the satellite. The de-orbiting scenario has been simulated with systems tool kit (STK). From the simulation it can be concluded, that the satellite can be deorbited within 25 years. This estimation meets the requirements set for the mission. Another very important parameter is the accumulative eclipse duration per year for a given orbit. For this calculation it is necessary to know the relative positions and motion of the Earth and the Sun. From this the eclipse duration per orbit for different altitudes is gained. Ground visibilities for orbital options are examined for two possible ground stations. The theory is based on the geometrical relation between the satellite and the ground stations. The results are in an agreement with the related STK simulations. Finally, both ground stations are found adequate to maintain the necessary contact between the satellite and the ground station. In the trade-off section, orbit candidates are examined in more detail. Results from the previous sections with some additional issues such as the experiment sensitivities, radiation concern and thermal stability are discussed to conclude which candidate is the best for the mission. As a result of the trade-off, two scenarios are explained in the "Nominal Mission Scenario" section which covers a baseline scenario and a secondary scenario. After selecting a baseline orbit, two sub-systems of the satellite are examined. In the section of "Attitude Control System (ACS)" where the question of "Which attitude control method is more suitable for the mission?" is tried to be answered. A trade-off among two common control methods those are 3-axis stabilization and spin stabilization is made. For making the trade-off possible external disturbances in space are estimated for two imaginary satellite bodies. Then, it is concluded that by a spin stabilization method maintaining the attitude is not feasible. Thus, the ACS should be built on the method of 3-axis stabilization. As the second sub-system the possible power system of the satellite is examined. The total size and the weight of the solar arrays are estimated for two different power loads. Then, the battery capacity which will be sufficient for the power system budget is estimated together with the total mass of the batteries. In the last section, a conclusion of the thesis work is made and the possible future works for the BOOST mission are stated.
557

Probabilité de succès des négociatiojns dans les opérations de fusions et acquisitions. / Probability of deal completion in mergers and acquisitions

De Bruyne, Irina 23 May 2014 (has links)
Ce travail de recherche explore le thème des négociations dans les opérations de fusion et acquisition et leurs résultats en termes d’aboutissement de l’opération. Le premier chapitre de la présente thèse porte sur la volonté de vendre des actionnaires de l’entreprise cible et cherche à mesurer l’influence de cette caractéristique sur le dénouement des négociations au travers des trois éléments suivants : la probabilité de succès de l’offre, le montant de la prime et l’effet net sur le niveau de richesse des actionnaires de la société cible, en tenant compte de l’intensité concurrentielle entre les acquéreurs potentiels. Le second chapitre de la présente thèse explore la relation entre la durée du processus denégociation et la probabilité de succès de l’offre, mettant l’accent sur l’importance de la phase privée des négociations qui se déroule avant l’annonce publique de l’opération. Enfin, le troisième chapitre cherche à déterminer le lien entre la structure de rémunération des dirigeants et l’attention qu’ilsprêtent aux réactions des marchés financiers en modifiant ou non leurs décisions d’investissement en matière de fusions-acquisitions. Notre travail de recherche contribue à améliorer la compréhension des résultats observables dans les opérations de fusion et acquisition en apportant des facteurs nouveaux qui influencent la probabilité de succès d’une offre, notamment, la volonté de se vendre de l’entreprise cible et le temps passé dans l’interaction directe avec les acquéreurs potentiels. Ce travail souligne également l'importance des motivations des agents économiques dans le processus d'allocation des ressources et permet de vérifier la pertinence du lien qui existe entre les mécanismes d’incitation financière et la qualité des décisions managériales / This research work explores the theme of negotiations in mergers and acquisitions and their outcome in terms of deal completion. The first chapter focuses on the target company’s willingness to sell and seeks to measure its influence on the outcome of negotiations through the following three elements:the probability of bid success, the amount of premium paid and the resulting net wealth effect for thetarget shareholders, taking into account the intensity of competition between potential acquirers. The second chapter explores the relationship between the duration of the negotiation process and the likelihood of deal completion, putting emphasis on the private part of the negotiation process that takes place before the public announcement of the deal. Finally, in the third chapter we aim todetermine the relationship that may exist between the executive compensation structure and the amount of attention they pay to the financial markets by changing or not their present investment decisions with regard to mergers and acquisitions. This research contributes to improving our understanding of the outcome of mergers and acquisitions, bringing new factors that influence theprobability of bid success, namely, the willingness of the target’s shareholders to sell and the time spent in the direct interaction with potential buyers. This work also highlights the importance of acknowledging economic agents’ motivations (both for the acquirer and the target) as determinants of observable outcomes in the resource allocation process and allows checking the relevance of financialincentive mechanisms for the quality of managerial decisions
558

Saint Thomas d’Aquin et la possibilité d’un monde créé sans commencement / St. Thomas Aquinas and the possibility of a world created without beginning

Celier, Grégoire 04 June 2014 (has links)
La question d’un monde créé sans commencement ou, comme on le dit souvent, le problème de « l’éternité du monde », a été l’occasion d’une vive controverse entre les penseurs latins du XIIIe siècle, dont saint Thomas d’Aquin. Nonobstant sa foi avérée en une création avec un commencement, Thomas, théologien et philosophe catholique, s’est interrogé tout au long de sa carrière : « Aurait-il été possible que Dieu créât un monde sans commencement ? » Cette persévérance est suffisamment paradoxale pour attirer l’attention, d’autant que Thomas, en sa réponse, s’opposait à la grande majorité de ses contemporains.Après une courte partie introductive qui brosse à grands traits et sans prétention le contexte historique, sont donc présentés les onze textes thomasiens traitant de la durée du monde, et spécialement de la possibilité d’un monde créé sans commencement, en leur langue latine ainsi qu’en une traduction française originale. Puis sont analysés les arguments présentés par Thomas, et les questions qu’ils peuvent soulever. Si les rapports entre la philosophie et la foi, comme entre la philosophie et la science, entrent en ligne de compte, les notions de causalité naturelle et de causalité volontaire, de fini et d’infini, de création divine et d’action humaine, de temps et d’éternité, de démonstration rationnelle et d’argument de convenance, constituent le cœur de cette élucidation philosophique.Au terme de la démarche, il apparaît que, pour saint Thomas d’Aquin, si le monde, en fait, a été créé avec un commencement (c’est pour lui une certitude de foi), en droit il aurait pu être créé sans aucun commencement (et c’est pour lui une affirmation légitime de la raison). / The question of a world created without beginning or, as is often said, the problem of « the eternity of the world », was the occasion of a controversy between the latin thinkers of the thirteenth century, including St. Thomas Aquinas. Despite his unquestionable faith in a creation with a beginning, Thomas, catholic theologian and philosopher, wondered throughout his life : « Would it have been possible that God created a world without beginning ? » This perseverance is paradoxical enough to attract attention, especially as Thomas, in his reply, was opposed to the vast majority of his contemporaries.After a short and unpretentious introduction that describes historical context, eleven thomasians texts dealing with the duration of the world are presented, and especially the possibility of a world created without beginning, in the original latin and in a new french translation. Then the arguments given by Thomas are analyzed, as well as the issues they may raise. If the relationship between philosophy and faith, and between philosophy and science, are taken into account, the concepts of natural causality and voluntary causality, finite and infinite, divine creation and human action, time and eternity, rational demonstration and argument of convenience, are the heart of this philosophical elucidation.At the end of the process, it appears that, for Aquinas, if the world, in fact, was created with a beginning (this is for him a certainty of faith), nevertheless it could have been created without a beginning (and this is for him a legitimate statement of reason).
559

Le devenir-Dieu des personnages kazantzakiens : l'oeuvre de Kazantzaki à la lumière de la philosophie bergsonienne / The kazantzakian characters becoming god : The work of Kazantzaki in the light of the bergsonian philosophy

Dewas, Céline 01 July 2014 (has links)
Dans l’Évolution créatrice, Bergson émet l’idée d’un sur-homme, individu qui prolongerait l’effort que la vie a fixé dans l’évolution des espèces, et qui s’élèverait vers une liberté divine incessamment actualisée. L’œuvre littéraire de Kazantzaki apparait dans notre étude comme le lieu de matérialisation de ce sur-homme à l’histoire singulière. La notion bergsonienne de durée, utilisée comme méthode d’approche du texte, révèle à l’intérieur des textes de l’auteur grec une façon particulière de penser la création, dans l’œuvre et en soi. Celle-ci est présentée comme la fixation progressive d’une maturation de l’auteur, ralentie par des formes matérielles qui ne la contiennent plus : en particulier celle du langage et d’une perception trop intellectuelle, et pas assez intuitive, du monde. Inspiré par le modèle bergsonien, Kazantzaki essaie d’imprimer la mobilité ascendante de l’esprit à ses personnages en les affranchissant au fur et à mesure de leur montée, de toutes ces clôtures qui morcellent la réalité fluente et indivisible et réduisent la puissance de l’âme. A l’idée d’un personnage émergeant comme une création ex nihilo, on substitue l’idée bergsonienne d’une nouveauté apportée par un effort éprouvant la liberté de l’individu, celle de l’écrivain et celle du personnage, qui concentrerait dans le cas du sur-homme l’histoire humaine et pré-humaine. Suivant ainsi ces deux lignes d’évolution propres à Kazantzaki et à Bergson, chacun dans leur domaine, confrontés à différents obstacles, nous les voyons converger par le mouvement similaire de leur pensée et interroger finalement l’effort d’un même type d’homme, le mystique. / In Creative Evolution, Bergson has put forward the idea of a super-man, who would continue the effort that life has fixed in the evolution of species, and would rise toward a constantly actualized divine freedom. The work of Kazantzaki appears in our study as a creation where the super-man, whose story must remain singular, is materialized. The bergsonian notion of duration used as a method to approach the text, reveals within the text a particular way of thinking the creation in the work and in oneself. It is presented as the continuous fixation of a maturation, slowed by material forms, that can not contain it anymore : in particular the language and the intellectual, and not sufficiently intuitive, vision of the world. Inspired by the bergsonian philosophy, Kazantzaki tries to imprint the spirit’s ascending mobility to his characters, by liberating them from all those closures that divide up the moving reality and reduce the power of the soul. We oppose to the idea of a character emerging like a creation ex nihilo, the bergsonian idea of novelty which would result from an effort testing the writer and the character’s freedom, and which would concentrate in the case of the super-man the human and pre-human history. Following those two lines of evolution which are particular to Bergson and Kazantzaki, each one in his area and confronted to different impediments, we see them converging by the similar movement of their thought and interrogate finally one type of man’s effort : the mystic.
560

Modelos de duração aplicados à sobrevivência das empresas paulistas entre 2003 e 2007 / Duration models applied to survival enterprises of São Paulo state between 2003 to 2007

Pavão, André Luis 22 May 2013 (has links)
Este trabalho apresenta as principais causas para a mortalidade das empresas paulistas criadas entre 2003 e 2007 a partir de base de dados cedida pelo SEBRAE-SP para o desenvolvimento dessa pesquisa. A amostra final, construída a partir de dados disponibilizados pela primeira vez para estudos desta natureza, contou com 662 empresas e 33 variáveis coletadas por meio de questionário aplicado diretamente às próprias empresas. A análise consistiu no teste de modelos econométricos, baseados na literatura dos modelos de duração, de forma a traduzir quais fatores são mais críticos para a sobrevivência das empresas a ponto de distingui-las em dois grupos: o das empresas vencedoras, cuja longevidade está pautada em ações que promovem ganhos de produtividade e eficiência, e aquelas desprovidas dessas ações e que muito provavelmente deixarão o mercado. Os três tipos de modelos abordados neste trabalho - não paramétrico, semi-paramétrico (riscos proporcionais) e paramétrico - apresentaram resultados similares, sendo que na abordagem de riscos proporcionais os resultados foram segmentados por tamanho e setor de atuação das empresas. Para as micro empresas, a idade do empreendedor e a iniciativa em investir na qualificação da mão de obra dos funcionários mostraram-se importantes mitigadores do risco de falha desse grupo de empresa, enquanto que para as pequenas empresas, a inovação em processos e a elaboração de um plano de negócios se destacaram dentre o conjunto de variáveis. Entre empresas dos setores de comércio e serviços, as empresas do primeiro grupo que faziam o acompanhamento das finanças (fluxo de caixa) apresentaram menor risco de falhar. Para aquelas do setor de serviços, a idade do empreendedor, o investimento em qualificação dos funcionários e o tamanho da empresa ao nascer foram importantes para reduzir o risco de falha no tempo. Outro resultado encontrado, por meio do modelo paramétrico utilizando distribuição Weibull, foi que o risco de a empresa deixar o mercado mostrou-se crescente, pelo menos nos cinco primeiros anos de existência da empresa. Entretanto, esse resultado não deve ser generalizado para períodos de tempo maiores que cinco anos. / This thesis presents the main results that determined the bankruptcy of enterprises located in the São Paulo State from 2003 to 2007. The models used in this work were possible due to the partnership with SEBRAE, Small Business Service Supporting, located in the State of São Paulo. This institution provided the data basis for this research and its final version was compound by 662 enterprises and 33 variables, which were collected from a survey done by SEBRAE and the related enterprise. For first time available for research like this The research was supported by econometrics models, more precisely duration models, which identified the most important factors regarding enterprises survival. Two enterprise groups were distinguished: that one that will survive and grow and another will fail. In this work, three models were used: parametric, non-parametric and proportional risk with all of them presenting similar results. The proportional risk approach was applied for economic sectors and enterprises size. For the micro size business, the entrepreneurship\'s age and the resources applied on the employee\'s qualification were important to reduce the risk to fail in the time, whereas for small enterprises, variables like innovation and business plan building were the most important variables. For the commerce and service sectors, the enterprises related to the first one, the enterprises which kept attention on financial results (cash flow) presented lower risk to fail. For service sector, variables such as: entrepreneur\'s age, investment on the employee\'s qualification and enterprise\'s size were the most important variables to explain the difference the risk to fail between the enterprises. Another result presented was the risk to fail, which indicates the likelihood of an enterprise to leave its business activity. In this case, the parametric model using Weibull distribution concluded that the risk grows in the first five years. However, this result must be carefully evaluated since it would be necessary a longer term data to ensure this result.

Page generated in 0.0973 seconds