清潔發展機制作為京都議定書中的一種彈性機制，普遍被認為將為溫室氣體排放減量所引起的「環境保護─經濟發展」與「北─南」衝突帶來雙贏的結果。支持者認為，其為附件一締約方提供達成溫室氣體減排經濟成本較低的方法，也同時為非附件一締約方引進資金與技術。然而，本研究運用國際政治經濟學的分析，提出因為各自要素禀賦的不同，清潔發展機制實行後的利弊損益將不會公平的分配於清潔發展機制項目的投資方與東道方間，因而導致某些負面的效果：其將阻礙投資方境內減排措施的推動，與導致東道方在技術上的依賴。而透過對投資方與東道方內部排放權提供者與技術研發者間互動的分析，再輔以中國與EU-15的實證資料，可以證實本研究的假設並較為清楚地說明其背後之原因。最後，本研究將討論中國政府與EU-15各自如何以政治力介入市場機制的運作，以試圖處理這樣市場機制運作所導致的弊病。 / Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) as a Kyoto flexible mechanism was believed to provide a win-win solution to the conflicts, which result from cutting down greenhouse gas emissions, between wheather ecology & economy or North & South. The proponents believe the implementation of CDM is cost-efficient for the Annex I Parties to achieve their Kyoto commitments and can also introduce capital & technology into the non-Annex I Parties. However, by international political economic analysis, the difference in factors endowments between CDM invest parties and host parties will result in unequal distribution of gains & pays between them. This causes some negative effects: CDM will deter the implementation of domestic emissions reduction in the invest parties, and it will also make technological dependence in the host parties. Through analyzing the interactions between emission allowance providers & technology innovators in the invest & host parties and with empirical data from China & EU-15, the assumptions of this study is proved and the causation is clarified. At last, the governmental interventions, which are trying to modify the negative effects result from the operation of market mechanism, by China and EU-15 are brought into discuss perspectively.

Having been running for over 10 years, the Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) is considered an innovative and successful mitigation initiative. CDM has the dual aims of helping industrialised countries achieve compliance with their emission limitation and reduction commitments in a cost-effective way, while simultaneously assisting developing countries in sustainable development. This thesis does a comprehensive analysis of the dual aims of CDM and is intended to assist in discussions about the post-2012 regime regarding CDM. To analyse the aim of assisting mitigation in a cost-effective way, the prices of certified emission reductions (CERs) on the international carbon market was studied and the provision of CDM was tested by comparing the amount of CERs with the mitigation commitments of the Annex I countries. It was found that CDM plays an important role in maintaining the international carbon price at a low level and that the total amount of CERs alone had already reached up to 52.70% of the entire mitigation commitments of industrialized countries by the end of 2010 and was continuing to grow before 2012. A theoretical analysis of the impacts of CDM showed that CDM has a double mitigation effect in both developing countries and industrialised countries, without double counting at present. A quantitative evaluation of the effects of China’s CDM projects on China’s total emissions showed that the contribution of CDM projects to limiting total emissions is small due to the dominance of fossil fuels, but CDM’s role in stimulating renewable energy is significant, e.g. about 11% of hydropower and 93% of wind power was generated by CDM projects in 2010. The results provide strong evidence in support of CDM’s contribution under the current Kyoto Protocol mitigation regime. To analyse the aim of promoting sustainable development in developing countries, popular methods such as checklist, Multi-Criteria Analysis (MCA) and Cost-Benefit Analysis (CBA) were reviewed, a CBA of co-benefits of China’s CDM projects was carried out, and the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) method was applied in an experimental study. The results showed that every method has its own advantages and problems. In other words, neither the CBA of co-benefits nor the AHP method alone is able to assess sustainable development in a completely satisfactory way. Currently, a bottom-up approach through engaging local stakeholders in CDM design and approval, combining a mandatory monitoring and evaluation of co-benefits, could be more effective for safeguarding local sustainable development than any consolidated standards. The future of the CDM is still unclear mainly due to uncertainties about the post-2012 regime. This thesis shows that there is more than sufficient reason for CDM to continue after 2012. Industrialised countries in general should make more substantial efforts to reduce their domestic emissions rather than blaming developing countries. For developing countries, learning from the CDM projects and further applying the knowledge, technology and experiences to their domestic development agenda could be more valuable than the present CER revenues. CDM can be an important starting point for developing countries to gradually make incremental greenhouse gas (GHG) reduction and limitation efforts. / QC 20110817

Through this interview, Manuel Pulgar-Vidal refers some crucial aspects related to the management being done by the Ministry of Environment (MINAM) on Sustainable Development. As the first point, the author lists the actions that MINAM has executed under the National Energy Policy of Peru, as well as those measures in which they have been working to reduce the environmental impact in the energy sector. Next, the author explains the reasons why the National Climate Change Strategy of 2003 has been implemented in only 12%; while in relation to the possible configuration of a carbon market in Peru, EnvironmentMinister confirmed its existence, adding that as a result, it has been recently approved a legal formula that defines the legal and institutional framework mechanisms to regulate compensation for ecosystem services such as the Clean Development Mechanism (CDM). Finally, Dr. Manuel Pulgar-Vidal, express its position on the package content reactivating measures that were approved earlier this year by Congress, as well as their expectations of the Twentieth Conference of the Parties to the Framework Convention United Nations Climate Change (COP 20) which our country will host. / A través de la presente entrevista, el Dr. Manuel Pulgar-Vidal se pronuncia sobre algunos aspectos cruciales vinculados a la gestión que viene realizando el Ministerio del Ambiente (MINAM) en materia de Desarrollo Sostenible. Como primer punto, el autor realiza un recuento de las acciones que hasta el momento ha ejecutado el MINAM en el marco de la Política Energética Nacional del Perú, así como aquellas medidas en las que viene trabajando para reducir el impacto ambiental en el sector energético. A continuación, el autor explica las razones por las que la implementación de la Estrategia Nacional de Cambio Climático (ENCC) de 2003 solo se ha dado en un 12%; mientras que, en relación a la posible configuración de un mercado de bonos de carbono en el Perú, el Ministro del Ambiente confirma su existencia, precisando que como consecuencia de ello recientemente se ha arribado a una fórmula legal que permite definir el marco legal e institucional para regular los mecanismos de retribución por servicios ecosistémicos, tales como el Mecanismo de Desarrollo Limpio (MDL). Finalmente, el Dr. Manuel Pulgar-Vidal, expresa su posición frente al contenido del paquete de medidas reactivadoras que fueron aprobadas hace algunos meses por el Congreso de la República, así como sus expectativas respecto a la Vigésima Conferencia de las Partes de la Convención Marco de las Naciones Unidas sobre el Cambio Climático (COP 20) de la cual será sede nuestro país.

Submitted by Edileide Reis (leyde-landy@hotmail.com) on 2013-04-17T17:49:59Z No. of bitstreams: 1 Silvia Lorena.pdf: 625242 bytes, checksum: 6b30f4e3144b0cf5357e4c62816e9a17 (MD5) / Approved for entry into archive by Rodrigo Meirelles(rodrigomei@ufba.br) on 2013-05-09T17:43:27Z (GMT) No. of bitstreams: 1 Silvia Lorena.pdf: 625242 bytes, checksum: 6b30f4e3144b0cf5357e4c62816e9a17 (MD5) / Made available in DSpace on 2013-05-09T17:43:28Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 Silvia Lorena.pdf: 625242 bytes, checksum: 6b30f4e3144b0cf5357e4c62816e9a17 (MD5) Previous issue date: 2007 / Presente dissertação trata das unidades de cumprimento estabelecidas pelo Protocolo de Quioto especialmente das Reduções Certificadas de Emissão (RCEs). Primeiramente, faz uma análise do aquecimento global e do efeito estufa distinguindo as duas expressões. Em seguida, descreve o papel do Painel Intergovernamental de Mudança Climática (IPCC) em assuntos relacionados à mudança do clima e avalia a relevância da Convenção-Quadro sobre Mudança do Clima (CQNUMC) para o desenvolvimento do direito ambiental internacional. Ademais traça um panorama do Protocolo de Quioto primeiro protocolo ambiental legalmente vinculante, fruto da CQNUMC examinando suas possíveis conseqüências para o mundo e em particular para o Brasil. Elenca os créditos de carbono ou créditos de emissão e detalha as etapas para a suas obtenções destacando as condições a serem satisfeitas em cada uma delas. A hipótese que permeou a dissertação foi a de que os créditos de carbono se refletirem reduções de emissões de GEEs reais ajudarão na mitigação da mudança climática. O trabalho ainda traz à baila a polêmica acerca da natureza jurídica das RCEs consideradas por muitos economistas uma nova commodity no âmbito do Mecanismo de Desenvolvimento Limpo (MDL) único mecanismo de flexibilização que permite a participação dos países em desenvolvimento com vistas à promoção do desenvolvimento sustentável. Para conferir segurança ao mercado de carbono no Brasil está em tramitação o Projeto de Lei nº 3.552/2004 dispondo sobre a organização e regulação do mercado de carbono na Bolsa de Valores do Rio de Janeiro através da geração de Redução Certificada de Emissão. Por fim o trabalho apresenta um estudo de caso acerca do Projeto Vega Bahia que implicou a obtenção de créditos de carbono pelo Brasil. Esse projeto corresponde a reduções de emissão antropogênicas de metano (CH4) um Gás de Efeito Estufa (GEE) que não teria lugar na ausência da atividade de projeto de MDL entre janeiro e dezembro de 2004. / Salvador

In 1997 industrialized nations, the Third Conference of the Parties to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change, met in Kyoto, Japan to sign a treaty (the “Kyoto Protocol”) in terms of which industrialized nations would be required to reduce their greenhouse gas emission by at least five percent below 1990 levels by the end of the “first commitment period” 2008-2012. South Africa is not regarded as an industrialized nation, but nonetheless acceded to the Kyoto Protocol in 2002. The literature reviewed in the present research reveals that, although idealistic, the Kyoto Protocol has been problematic. Fourteen meetings of the Conference of Parties to the Kyoto Protocol between 1997 and 2011 have achieved little more than to repeatedly defer and redefine Kyoto obligations. This research was undertaken to document the existing environmental taxation policies employed in selected international jurisdictions with a view to providing a framework for environmental tax policy formation in South Africa to assist this country in meeting its “greenhouse gas” emission targets, while at the same time promoting economic growth. A doctrinal research methodology was adopted in this study as it mainly analysed and interpreted legislation and policy documents and therefore the approach was qualitative in nature. An extensive literature survey was performed to document the various environmental policies that have been legislated in the selected jurisdictions. Comparisons were drawn with proposed tax policy measures for South Africa. The literature indicates that in the selected international jurisdictions carbon taxes achieved less-than-optimal results, largely due to political and industry-competitive agendas. With South Africa planning to introduce a carbon tax, it is submitted that the implementation of a carbon tax regime in isolation will be counter-productive, given South Africa’s economic profile. On the basis of the literature reviewed, it was concluded that South Africa should consider “recycling” carbon tax revenues within the economy to fund a broad-based tax incentive regime that will stimulate the change to non-carbon energy whilst promoting growth through sustainable development

In this diploma thesis about the trading of permits CO2 to focus on the issue of release of carbon dioxide in a European context and its control through a system of tradable CO2 - EU ETS. I focus on the first two trading period of the EU ETS, in terms of allocated permits, price trends, and number of permits traded in the two periods in selected EU countries and the Czech Republic. The aim is to determine how appears a system of tradable CO2 permits in selected EU countries and the Czech Republic in the context of fulfillment obligations to reduce CO2 emissions under the Kyoto Protocol. The work compare the situation in the Czech Republic with selected EU countries in selected indicators of specific emissions trading and CO2. The work seeks to determine to what extent the ETS helps in improving the situation of individual countries in absolute production of CO2. The first chapter introduces the issue of climate change. It explains what are greenhouse gases, greenhouse effect and how this effect works. It acquaints readers with one greenhouse gas and that is carbon dioxide. Then the work explains how climate change takes place and there is also described climate history of the Earth, which is necessary to closer understanding of the issue. Then follows the description of international organizations, which deal with climate protection and have international influence. The second chapter focuses on ways to solution climate change. The bigger attention is devoted to the trading with carbon dioxide, than the work explaines the functioning of the European ETS, its development and global influence on the production and reduction of CO2. Than is the chapter devoted to notes and obligations that are promised in the Kyoto Protocol and closer specified the position of the Czech Republic in this Convention. In the third chapter compares the work selected countries of the European Union, which are the largest issuers of the Union's carbon dioxide. If it is possible to compare states in terms of their commitments and reduce CO2 implementation of these commitments. It appears that a large part of the EU Member States fulfill their obligations only partially, and some states it does not meet at all. For some selected countries we can see even an absolute increase in these emissions. Production of CO2 emissions is expressed in the comparison of selected countries in various indicators such as a production of CO2 per GDP or per inhabitant or per hectare of forest. It seems that not all states have aligned their emissions, which are important for sustainable development in that states. The last part compares selected countries in terms of allocated permits in the first and second ETS trading period and describes the evolution of both periods. Finally we performed a detailed analysis of price trends of permits especially in the first ETS period.

Orientador: Osmar de Carvalho Bueno / Banca: Maria Aparecida Mourão Brasil / Banca: Thelma Krug / Resumo: O alerta de cientistas sobre o aquecimento do planeta vem desde a década de 60. Entretanto, a comunidade internacional passou a discutir mais profundamente o tema a partir dos anos 80, mas foi na década de 90 que se conseguiram os maiores avanços diplomáticos, com o advento da Convenção-Quadro das Nações Unidas sobre Mudança do Clima e suas Conferências das Partes, onde em 1997 negociou-se o Protocolo de Quioto. Este trabalho discorre sobre a regulamentação internacional relacionada ao aquecimento global, enfocando em particular o papel da agroenergia brasileira dentro do Mecanismo de Desenvolvimento Limpo (MDL) e seu potencial de mitigação para a mudança climática. . Utiliza-se do método dedutivo para o desenvolvimento da dissertação. A atuação do Brasil apresenta-se controversa, pois é grande emissor de gases de efeito estufa (GEE) decorrente do desmatamento. Entretanto, a agroenergia brasileira destaca-se no cenário mundial com o grande potencial de substituição de matrizes energéticas não-renováveis por renováveis. Conclui-se que a agroenergia brasileira poderá contribuir para a mitigação do efeito estufa A discussão enfocou a demonstração da adicionalidade nos projetos de MDL, o potencial dos projetos de co-geração de energia e a necessidade de incluir no segundo período de compromisso do Protocolo de Quioto atividades relacionadas a uso da terra e mudança do uso da terra como ferramentas que contribuem para o controle do aquecimento global. As conclusões indicam a diferenciação entre projetos de redução de emissão e projetos de MDL; a potencialidade da agroenergia e o trabalho do Brasil para se destacar no mercado de carbono. / Abstract: Scientists have been warning about the planet warming since the 1960s. However, the international community started discussing it more deeply in the 1980s, but it was in the 1990s that the greatest diplomatic advances were reached, with the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change and its Conference of Parties when, in 1997, the Kyoto Protocol was negotiated. This study concerns the international regulation related to global warming, focusing on the particular Brazilian agroenergy role within the Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) and its mitigation potential to the climate change. The deductive approach was used in this paper. The Brazilian performance is antagonistic, once it is a great greenhouse gas emissary due to deforestation. Nevertheless, the Brazilian Agroenergy stands out in the world scenario with the huge replacement potential from nonrenewable energetic matrix to renewable ones. In this way, it is possible to conclude that the Brazilian Agroenergy can contribute to the greenhouse effect reduction. The discussion focused on the addition demonstration on CDM projects, the energy cogeneration potential of the projects, and the need to include activities concerning the land use and land use changes as a tool that comes through the global warming control in the second commitment period of Kyoto Protocol. The conclusion shows the difference between the reduction emission projects and the CDM projects; the agroenergy potencial as well as the Brazilian effort to stand out in the carbon market. / Mestre

Submitted by Renata Lopes (renatasil82@gmail.com) on 2016-10-17T13:34:11Z No. of bitstreams: 1 tercianesabatinicarvalho.pdf: 2411280 bytes, checksum: b3e6a12356189399e279b23c9217ee6f (MD5) / Approved for entry into archive by Adriana Oliveira (adriana.oliveira@ufjf.edu.br) on 2016-10-25T11:55:03Z (GMT) No. of bitstreams: 1 tercianesabatinicarvalho.pdf: 2411280 bytes, checksum: b3e6a12356189399e279b23c9217ee6f (MD5) / Made available in DSpace on 2016-10-25T11:55:03Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 tercianesabatinicarvalho.pdf: 2411280 bytes, checksum: b3e6a12356189399e279b23c9217ee6f (MD5) Previous issue date: 2008-12-15 / As questões sobre o meio ambiente, ano após ano, vêm desempenhando um destacado papel no debate global sobre o futuro do planeta. Devido à liberação de enormes quantidades de CO2 na combustão de energias fósseis, as suas emissões são classificadas como uma das forças motrizes por trás do fenômeno do aquecimento global. Em todo o mundo, as emissões dos gases de “efeito estufa” (GEE) estão aumentando, apesar dos esforços comuns para implementar acordos internacionais, como o Protocolo de Quioto. Nesse contexto, esta dissertação visa investigar a hipótese da Curva de Kuznets Ambiental (CKA) global e a sua relação com o Protocolo de Quioto. Portanto, um de seus objetivos é verificar se existe uma relação na forma de U invertido entre um índice de degradação ambiental global (emissões de CO2 per capita) e o crescimento econômico (medido pelo PIB per capita) para uma amostra de 167 países durante o período de 2000-2004, utilizando um modelo de efeitos fixos com dependência espacial. Outro objetivo desta dissertação é avaliar o papel do Protocolo de Quioto como uma política global, a fim de reduzir as emissões. Para isso, uma variável dummy, representando os países que ratificaram o Protocolo, é adicionada do lado direito da regressão. Além disso, mais três variáveis são colocadas no lado direito da regressão: nível de comércio, consumo de energia e densidade populacional. Os resultados da Análise Exploratória de Dados Espaciais (AEDE) revelaram que as emissões de CO2 per capita não são distribuídas aleatoriamente, bem como identificou uma série de países que emitem mais do que os outros países: Estados Unidos, Canadá, Austrália, Barein, Brunei, Kuwait, Luxemburgo, Emirados Árabes Unidos, Trinidad e Tobago e Aruba. A AEDE encontrou a existência de clusters, mostrando que o padrão Baixo-Baixo ocorre principalmente nos países mais pobres africanos e asiáticos, enquanto o padrão Alto-Alto aparece essencialmente nos países europeus e países do sudoeste asiático. Os resultados econométricos, a princípio, sugerem a existência de uma CKA na forma de “N” e não de “U” invertido, encontrando os seguintes “pontos de inflexão”: US$ 12.262,44 e US$ 27.083,33. As demais variáveis explicativas também apresentaram os sinais esperados e todas exibiram um coeficiente altamente significativo. Cerca de 80% da amostra não possuem renda acima do ponto de inflexão calculado, ou seja, a grande maioria dos países se encontraria na primeira parte ascendente da curva, revelando que no intervalo de renda observado para os 167 países, muitos exibem uma curva monotonicamente crescente. Isso parece confirmar e ilustrar a natureza global do impacto do dióxido de carbono, revelando que há pouco incentivo para as nações tomarem ações unilaterais para reduzir suas emissões, e que ações multilaterais estão sendo desenvolvidas lentamente. Outra questão importante é o coeficiente negativo e estatisticamente significativo para a variável dummy dos países que ratificaram o Protocolo de Quioto, revelando a importância de acordos internacionais na redução do montante global das emissões de carbono per capita. Portanto, o crescimento econômico sozinho não pode substituir políticas que aspirem a redução das emissões de CO2. Este resultado sugere que políticas internacionais podem ajudar a reduzir as emissões de GEE, mas é preciso que mais países se comprometam nessa redução. Portanto, crescimento econômico por si só não garante a cura para os problemas relacionados ao meio ambiente. As políticas ambientais têm papel fundamental na inversão da trajetória dos poluentes que seguem a CKA. / Over the years environmental issues have been playing a remarkable role in the global debate about the Earth future. Due to the release of huge amounts of CO2 in the combustion of fossil fuels, its emissions are classified as one of the driving forces behind the global warming phenomenon. Worldwide, emissions of the "greenhouse effect" gases (GHG) are increasing, despite the joint efforts to implement international agreements like the Kyoto Protocol. In this context, the present dissertation is aimed at investigating the Global Environmental Kuznets Curve (EKC) hypothesis and its relationship with the Kyoto Protocol. Therefore, one of its objectives is to verify whether there is an inverted U shaped relationship between an index of global environmental degradation (per capita CO2 emissions) and economic growth (measured by per capita GDP) for a sample of 167 countries over the period 2000-2004, using a fixed effect model with spatial dependence. Another objective of this dissertation is to evaluate the role of the Kyoto Protocol as a global policy in order to reduce emissions. To do so, a dummy variable, representing the countries that have ratified the Protocol, is put in right hand of the regression. Besides, another three variables are inserted in the right hand of regression: the trade level, energy consumption and population density. The findings from Exploratory Spatial Data Analysis (ESDA) revealed that per capita CO2 emissions are not randomly distributed, as well as identified a number of countries that emit more than the other countries, namely, United States, Canada, Australia, Bahrain, Brunei, Kuwait, Luxembourg, United Arab Emirates, Trinidad and Tobago and Aruba. The ESDA analysis found the existence of clusters, showing that the low-low pattern occurs mainly in the poorest countries Asian and African, whereas the High High pattern appears mainly in European countries and countries in Southeast Asia. The econometric results, in principle, suggest the existence of a CKA in the form of "N" rather than "U" inverted, finding the following "turning points": US$ 12,262.44 and US$ 27,083.33. The other explanatory variables also showed the expected signs and all exhibited a highly significant coefficient. Around 80% of the sample did not have income above the “turning point” calculated, that is, the vast majority of countries are in the first upward part curve, revealing that in the range of income observed for the 167 countries, many have a curve monotonically increasing. This seems to confirm and illustrate the global nature of the carbon dioxide impact, revealing that there is little incentive for nations takes unilateral actions to reduce their emissions, as well as multilateral actions are being developed slowly. Another important issue is the negative coefficient, and statistically significant, for the dummy variables of the countries that have ratified the Kyoto Protocol, showing the importance of international agreements on reducing the overall amount of per capita carbon emission. Therefore, economic growth alone cannot replace policies that aspire to reducing CO2 emissions. This result suggests that international policies can help reduce GHG emissions, but we need more countries to commit such reduction. Therefore, economic growth alone does not guarantee a cure for the problems related to the environment. Environmental policies have key role in reversing the trajectory of pollutants that follow the CKA.

Though heavily criticized, the Kyoto Protocol has stood out as the key political tool in addressing climate change. However the only of its instruments (IET, JI, CDM) that allows industrialized and developing countries to cooperate towards mitigation of GHGs is CDM. The underlying assumption of forestry CDM is that forest plantations (afforestation/ reforestation) might help to remove carbon dioxide (the most representative GHG) emissions. This assumption takes for granted that forest plantations might compensate for the loss of natural forests. Therefore this alleged trade-off constitutes the very focus of this study. Due to high monetary price instability in brand new markets, like the carbon offset one, the analysis abstracts out money variables. Additionally, this engine helps overcome the trap set up by monetary prices as scarcity indicators. Thus, to go along with the bioeconomic analysis, a Gordon-Schaefer fishery-like model is applied to carbon forest sequestration in Rio Grande do Sul. This state is thought of bringing an interesting picture to the analysis of the claimed trade-off between natural and planted forests. This owes both to Rio Grande do Sul s unworthy deforestation rates and to its high natural-to-planted forest ratio. This land use assortment is thought of as if there were two countries or regions: a forest-rich one, where natural forests still remain, and a forest-poor one, where afforestation and/or reforestation takes place. Only physical units (MtC) are used to calculate exchange and interest rates as well as non-monetary prices. Next, a function that assigns the land use to natural and planted forests is arrived at. As such, it works as the emission removal demand. On the other hand, the emission supply function depends on the economic growth rates. The results show that, eventually, the sustainability of economic growth hinges on a region s or country s ecological situation namely, equilibrium, credit or debt. The economic and environmental advantages of each mitigation strategy CDM and natural forest conservation are crosschecked. A nearly 40-year long overshoot rate is, after all, estimated for the forest sector in Rio Grande do Sul. The estimates suggest that CDM might help relieve environmental stress only where ecological credit is reported. Where ecological debt is already on, CDM was found unable to compensate for conservation disregard. / Apesar das críticas que tem sofrido, o Protocolo de Kyoto tem-se constituído na principal ferramenta política para enfrentar a mudança climática. No entanto o único de seus instrumentos (comércio internacional de emissões, implementação conjunta e MDL) que prevê a cooperação entre países industrializados e em desenvolvimento para mitigar as emissões de GEE é o MDL. A modalidade florestal do MDL pressupõe que as plantações florestais (florestamento/reflorestamento) podem ajudar na remoção das emissões de dióxido de carbono (o GEE mais representativo). Esse pressuposto aceita que as plantações florestais podem compensar a perda de florestas naturais. Por isso esse proclamado trade-off constitui o foco principal deste estudo. Devido à grande instabilidade dos preços monetários em mercados incipientes como o do carbono, a análise abstém-se de utilizar variáveis monetárias. De resto, esse artifício ajuda a contornar certas dificuldades decorrentes da utilização dos preços monetários como indicadores de escassez. Assim, a análise bioeconômica prossegue com a aplicação, ao seqüestro florestal de carbono no Rio Grande do Sul, de um modelo similar ao de Gordon-Schaefer, tradicionalmente empregado na gestão da pesca. Por duas razões principais, o caso do Rio Grande do Sul contribui para a análise do suposto trade-off entre florestas naturais e plantadas. Em primeiro lugar, por não se registrarem taxas de desmatamento pronunciadas no estado. Em segundo lugar, pela elevada proporção de florestas naturais em relação às florestas plantadas em seu território. A repartição do uso do solo entre as florestas é utilizada para estudá-las como se representassem nações ou regiões diferentes: uma, rica em florestas, onde as formações florestais nativas permanecem em pé; outra, pobre em florestas, onde as plantações florestais se estabelecem através de florestamento e/ou reflorestamento. Apenas unidades físicas (MtC) são utilizadas para calcular taxas de câmbio, taxas de juro e preços não-monetários. A seguir, deduz-se uma função que reparte o uso da terra entre florestas naturais e plantadas. Essa função equivale à demanda por remoção de emissões. Sua contraparte é a função oferta de emissões, que depende das taxas de crescimento econômico. Os resultados mostram como, em última análise, a sustentação do crescimento econômico está condicionada à situação ecológica (dívida, crédito ou equilíbrio) de um país ou região. Em cada cenário, confrontam-se as vantagens econômicas e ambientais das estratégias do MDL e da conservação de florestas naturais. Além disso, estima-se uma taxa de overshoot para a atividade florestal no Rio Grande do Sul ao longo dos últimos 40 anos aproximadamente. As estimativas sugerem que o MDL pode aliviar pressões ambientais somente onde se registre crédito ecológico. Onde o endividamento ecológico já esteja em curso, o MDL não substitui a conservação.

Magister Legum - LLM