In this era of increasingly fast communication people are being exposed to quantitative information, from national and international sources, through a range of media including newspapers, magazines, television, radio, pod-casts, YouTube and other areas of the Internet. Contexts include health statistics, environmental issues, traffic statistics, wars, gun laws and so on. It is becoming more and more important that citizens are able to critically read and interpret this information, and to do so requires an understanding of statistical concepts. Research has shown that students are motivated and engaged in learning through the use of authentic, real life tasks. The media provides current information, which can be used to help develop both students’ awareness of how social issues are constructed as well as vital statistical concepts. This paper proposes that secondary school students\' application of a model for statistical analysis to material taken from media sources, enhances their understanding of statistical concepts. This model, called the Five Step Framework, is described and exemplified for the particular context of opinion polling.

Αρχικά γίνεται μια ιστορική αναδρομή, μια παρουσίαση της διπαραμετρικής Γενικευμένης εκθετικής κατανομής (τύπος κατανομής, συνάρτηση πυκνότητας πιθανότητας κλπ) και αναφέρονται βασικά χαρακτηριστικά της κατανομής. Στη συνέχεια αναφέρονται βασικοί ορισμοί και θεωρήματα σχετικά κυρίως με τη σημειακή παραμετρική εκτίμηση καθώς και την εκτίμηση κατά Bayes. Το επόμενο κεφάλαιο πραγματεύεται την ανάλυση του μοντέλου και τις βασικές ιδιότητες της Γενικευμένης εκθετικής κατανομής. Επίσης μελετώνται ειδικά θέματα, όπως συναρτήσεις επιβίωσης, πληροφορία Fisher, διατεταγμένες παρατηρήσεις, κατανομή του αθροίσματος και παραγωγή τυχαίων αριθμών, στα πλαίσια της Γενικευμένης εκθετικής κατανομής. Στη συνέχεια αναλύονται και εφαρμόζονται μέθοδοι σημειακής εκτίμησης (Μέγιστη Πιθανοφάνεια, Μέθοδος ροπών, Μέθοδος εκατοστημορίων, Ελάχιστα και σταθμισμένα ελάχιστα Τετράγωνα, L-ροπές) για την εκτίμηση των παραμέτρων της κατανομής. Μελετάται και η απόδοση των εκτιμητών για τις διάφορες μεθόδους εκτίμησης. Ακολουθεί η εκτίμηση τύπου Bayes των παραμέτρων (με συναρτήσεις ζημίας τετραγωνικού σφάλματος και LINEX αντίστοιχα). Αναφέρονται πάλι συμπεράσματα για την απόδοση των εκτιμητών και σύγκριση με τους εκτιμητές μέγιστης πιθανοφάνειας. Τελικά παρουσιάζουμε την προσέγγιση ενός αναλογιστικού πίνακα μέσω της Γενικευμένης εκθετικής κατανομής. / In the beginning, we mention a historical recursion, a presentation of the 2-parameter Generalized exponential distribution ( distribution type, probability density function etc.) and we also mention basic characteristics of the distribution. Basic definitions and theorems about point estimation and Bayes estimation are reported. Furthermore, we discource on the analysis of the model and basic properties of the Generalized exponential distribution. Special themes, such as survival functions, Fisher information, order statistics, sum distribution and production of random numbers are analyzed in the frame of the Generalized exponential distribution. Moreover, we analyze and apply point estimation methods (maximum likelihood, method of moments, percentile estimation, least (and weighted least) squares, method of L-moments) in order to estimate parameters of the distribution. Performance of the estimators for different estimation methods is also analyzed. Next, bayesian estimation of the parameters (under squared error loss function and LINEX loss function) is coming up for discussion. We also analyze the performance of the estimators and compare them to the maximum likelihood estimators. Finally, we present approximation of an actuarial table via Generalized exponential distribution.

This thesis deals with the evaluation of the quality of life in rural communities in the Region of Prachatice. The thesis is also focused on the evaluation of the economic weakness of the municipalities, its causes and manifestations, and, at least, the possibility of improving life in these communities. An integral part of this work is finding those sources of funding and the related use of funds and grants. In the theoretical part, I have discussed the importance of the regional and social policy focusing on rural issues and their development, with the development of the regions linked to the use of subsidies and the disbursement of funds, especially funds of the European Union. In the practical part, contingency tables and cluster analysis are used, as well as special methods. The results of this study has confirmed that quality of life in LFA municipalities and their economic weakness depends on the size of the village. The conclusion provides an overall assessment of the work and its results.

Introdução: No contexto do envelhecimento populacional, uma questão fundamental é avaliar se as estratégias de prevenção de doenças crônicas poderiam contribuir para o aumento dos anos vividos em boas condições de saúde, pela população idosa. Objetivo: Avaliar se a eliminação de determinadas doenças crônicas é capaz de levar à compressão da morbidade em indivíduos idosos. Métodos: Estudo transversal analítico, de base populacional, utilizando dados oficiais secundários para o Município de São Paulo, em 2000, e dados obtidos a partir do estudo SABE. O método de Sullivan foi utilizado para o cálculo de expectativas de vida livre de incapacidade (E.V.L.I.). O impacto da eliminação de uma doença na prevalência de incapacidade foi estimado com um modelo de regressão logística múltipla. Tábuas de vida de eliminação de causas foram utilizadas para calcular as probabilidades de morte com a eliminação de doenças. O efeito da eliminação das doenças crônicas foi avaliado, considerando a teoria de riscos competitivos e a abordagem proposta por Nusselder e colaboradores. Resultados: Os maiores ganhos em E.V.L.I., com a eliminação de doenças crônicas, ocorreram no sexo feminino, levando a um processo de compressão absoluta da morbidade. Nos indivíduos de idade mais avançada, os ganhos em E.V.L.I., ocorreram em função de um processo de compressão relativa da morbidade. Nos homens com idade de 75 anos, todas as doenças estudadas, com exceção da doença cardíaca e da hipertensão arterial sistêmica, levaram a um processo de expansão absoluta da morbidade, mas simultaneamente a um processo de compressão relativa da morbidade, ao serem eliminadas. A doença cardíaca apresentou-se como aquela que mais promoveria a compressão da morbidade, caso fosse eliminada, em ambos os sexos. Conclusão: A eliminação de doenças crônicas na população idosa poderia levar a uma compressão da morbidade em homens e mulheres, tanto na idade de 60 anos, quanto na de 75 anos / Introduction: In the context of the aging process, a key issue is to assess whether strategies to prevent chronic diseases may contribute to the increase in years lived in good health among elderly individuals. Objective: To evaluate whether elimination of certain chronic diseases can lead to the compression of morbidity, in the elderly. Methods: Analytical cross-sectional survey, based on official data for the city of São Paulo, in 2000, and data obtained from the SABE study. Sullivans method was used for the calculation of disability-free life expectancy (DFLE). Cause-deleted disability prevalence was estimated using multiple logistic regression model. Cause-deleted probabilities of dying were derived with the cause-elimination life-table technique, considering the independence of the causes of based on the approach proposed by Nusselder and co-workers. Results: The greatest gains in DFLE, with the elimination of chronic diseases, occurred in women, leading to a process of absolute compression of morbidity. Among individuals of a more advanced age, gains in DFLE occurred due to a relative compression of morbidity process. Among men aged 75 years, all diseases eliminated, except heart disease and hypertension, led to a process of absolute expansion of morbidity, but simultaneously, to a relative compression of morbidity. If eliminated, heart disease was the condition that would most lead to the compression of morbidity in both genders. Conclusion: The elimination of chronic diseases in the elderly population could lead to the compression of morbidity in men and women at both 60 years of age and in 75 years of age or older

Peer-to-peer network applications has been a tremendous success among end users and has therefore received much attention in academia and industry, as have illegal public file sharing in media. However, private peer-to-peer file sharing between family, friends and co-workers have attracted little interest from the research community. Existing approaches also limit the users by not allowing for native interaction with userspace applications. In this paper we ex- -plore how private file sharing can be made safe, fast and scalable without constraining the users in this aspect. We demonstrate the concept of a private file sharing application utilizing a decentralized peer-to-peer network overlay by creating a prototype with extreme program- ming as methodology. To maximize the freedom of users the network is accessed through a virtual file-system interface. The prototype proves this to be a valid approach and we hope readers can use this paper as a platform for further developments in this area. / Fildelningsapplikationer som använder peer-to-peer teknik har varit en enorm framgång blandslutanvändare och har därmed erhållit mycket uppmärksamhet från akademi och indus- tri, liksom olaglig fildelning fått inom media. Däremot har inte privat fildelning mellan vän- ner, arbetskamrater och kollegor tilldelats samma uppmärksamhet från forskningssamfundet. Nuvarande tillämpningar begränsar användaren genom att inte tillåta naturlig interaktion med användarapplikationer. I denna uppsats utforskar vi hur privat fildelning kan göras snabb, skalbar och säker utan att begränsa användaren ur den aspekten. Vi demonstrerar ett koncept- för privat fildelning som nyttjar decentraliserad peer-to-peer arkitektur m.h.a en prototyp som tagits fram med extreme programming som metodologi. För att maximera användarnas frihet nyttjas ett virtuellt filsystem som gränssnitt. Prototypen visar att vår tillämpning fungerar i praktiken och vi hoppas att läsaren kan använda vårt arbete som en plattform för fortsatt utveckling inom detta område.

Puisque de plus en plus d’enfants sont exposés à la séparation de leurs parents, plusieurs d’entre eux doivent partager leur temps entre les logements et la supervision de leur mère et leur père. Qu’on nomme cette réalité « garde », « résidence » ou « temps parental », elle complique grandement la description et la mesure des structures familiales dans lesquelles évoluent les enfants. Dans ce contexte, la thèse comporte deux objectifs principaux. Le premier consiste à préciser l’évolution historique des différents concepts légaux et sociologiques en jeu et à montrer comment le flou terminologique entourant la garde entraîne des problèmes lors de la mesure des arrangements résidentiels des enfants. Pour exposer la problématique, je tente de déterminer la prévalence de la double résidence égalitaire en faisant une évaluation critique des sources de données disponibles au Québec et au Canada. En fin de compte, en raison des lacunes de ces diverses sources et de leurs résultats parfois divergents, il s’avère pratiquement impossible de répondre à la question : « Combien d’enfants vivent en garde partagée (ou en double résidence) ? ». Le second objectif, qui occupe la majeure partie de la thèse, vise à illustrer le caractère dynamique des arrangements de temps parental, un aspect souvent ignoré dans la littérature scientifique. À partir des données des treize premiers passages de l’Étude longitudinale du développement des enfants du Québec (ÉLDEQ) (n=2120), je distingue quatre arrangements de temps parental postséparation : 1) la résidence maternelle (avec peu ou pas de contacts père-enfant) ; 2) la résidence maternelle (avec contacts père-enfant réguliers) ; 3) la double résidence ; 4) la résidence paternelle. En ordonnant les informations disponibles à différents points dans le temps pour un même enfant, j’ai pu reconstituer des trajectoires de temps parental complètes. Les analyses réalisées sur ces trajectoires sont rapportées dans deux articles. Je m’intéresse, dans le premier article, aux caractéristiques familiales liées à l’établissement d’un arrangement donné au moment de la séparation ainsi qu’à la durée de cet arrangement. J’y montre par exemple que la part du temps parental assumée par le père au moment de la séparation est positivement associée au niveau de scolarité des parents, au travail à temps plein des mères et au sentiment de plaisir parental des pères. On y constate aussi que les arrangements initiaux ne sont pas tous aussi durables les uns que les autres. Même si les facteurs associés à cette durée sont plus difficiles à discerner, le niveau de scolarité des parents semble être important dans le processus. Dans le second article, je construis des tables de survie multiétats afin de résumer les trajectoires de temps parental de la perspective d’un enfant « moyen ». Je cherche entre autres à déterminer combien de temps les enfants passent dans chacun des quatre arrangements définis plus tôt et à identifier les facteurs sociodémographiques associés à cette répartition. J’y conclus que le temps passé en double résidence par un enfant moyen est faible, mais qu’il augmente avec le niveau de scolarité des deux parents. La double résidence est cependant une composante centrale de la paternité postrupture. Malgré une grande fluidité dans les trajectoires de temps parental, l’arrangement établi au moment de la séparation demeure un bon prédicteur de l’expérience parentale ultérieure. Les enfants initialement en double résidence, par exemple, perdent rarement contact avec leur père au cours des cinq années qui suivent la séparation, et ce, même si plusieurs d’entre eux finiront par habiter principalement avec leur mère. / As more children are exposed to the separation of their parents, many of them have to share their time between the homes and the supervision of their mother and father. Whether this reality is referred to as “custody”, “residence” or “parenting time”, it greatly complicates the description and measurement of the family structures in which children evolve. In this context, the thesis has two main objectives. The first is to clarify the historical evolution of the various legal and sociological concepts involved and to show how the terminological confusion surrounding child custody raises problems when trying to measure children’s living arrangements. In particular, I try to determine the prevalence of egalitarian dual residence by critically assessing the various data sources available in Quebec and Canada. In the end, because of the shortcomings of these various sources and their sometimes divergent results, it is virtually impossible to answer the question: “How many children live in shared physical custody (or dual residence) ?” The second objective, which comprises most of the thesis, aims to illustrate the dynamic nature of parenting-time arrangements, an element often overlooked in the scientific literature. With data from the first thirteen waves of the Quebec Longitudinal Study of Child Development (QLSCD) (n = 2120), I distinguish four postseparation parenting-time arrangements: 1) mother residence (with little or no father-child contact); 2) mother residence (with regular father-child contact); 3) dual residence; 4) father residence. By ordering the information available at different time points for each child, I was able to reconstruct complete parenting-time trajectories. The analyzes carried out on these trajectories are reported in two articles. In the first article, I look at family characteristics related to the establishment of specific arrangements at separation and at the duration of this arrangement. For instance, I show that the share of parenting time assumed by fathers following separation is positively associated with parents’ education level, mothers’ full-time employment and father’s feeling of parental enjoyment. The article also shows that initial arrangements are not all as durable as each other. Although the factors associated with this duration are difficult to identify, the parents’ level of education appears to be play an important role. In the last article, I build multistate life tables in order to summarize parenting-time trajectories from the perspective of an average child. I try to determine, inter alia, how much time children spend in each of the four arrangements defined earlier and what sociodemographic factors are associated with this distribution of time. I show that time spent in dual residence by an average child is low, but that it increases with the education level of both parents. Dual residence is, however, a central component of postseparation fatherhood. Despite great fluidity in parenting-time trajectories, arrangements established at separation remain good predictors of the subsequent parenting experience. Children initially in dual residence, for instance, seldom lose contact with their father during the first five years following separation even if many of them eventually end up living mainly with their mother.

This study seeks to analyse and quantify cross-border effects of discretionary fiscal policies from two major points of view. The aggregate approach rests on the use of the structural vector autoregression model (SVAR) and its extension, the global vector autoregression model (GVAR). The discretionary fiscal impulse itself is then defined as a change in cyclically adjusted balance of the government sector, calculated at quarterly frequencies. This section is then complemented by a case study of a single measure: the German car scrapping scheme during 2009 and its effects on the Czech economy. It was found that cross-border effects of discretionary fiscal policies may be indeed present, in case certain conditions are met. Importantly, a fiscal impulse has to originate from a sufficiently large economy and there needs to be a tight trade linkage between examined countries. In most cases, cross-border effects have also been found of lesser magnitude than direct impacts of fiscal policies on the domestic country. Finally, as demonstrated on the German-Czech case, even a single fiscal measure can trigger substantial cross-border spillovers. It was estimated that this measure positively contributed to real GDP growth in 2009 in the Czech Republic by 0.44 pp.

Dissertation thesis creates a complex and modern scheme for stochastic modeling of demographic processes, which is universally applicable to any population in the world. All calculations are described in detail on the data of the Czech Republic. Throughout the work the attention is drawn to the issues, that every analyst must necessarily take into account in order to obtain correct results. Data comes mostly from the Czech Statistical Office database. However, some data matrices had to be calculated for the purposes of the thesis. Particular demographic processes (mortality, fertility and migration) are modeled using selected modern approaches (ARIMA models, Lee-Carter method) and based on the constructed models these processes are forecasted to the future. Using partially projected results a comprehensive demographic projection of the population of the Czech Republic is created up to the year 2050. However, not on the basis of the current state and expert expectations of the future development, but based on sophistically projected demographic events, which are explained using the trends and main components of their previous development. This demographic projection is created in three scenarios (marked SC1, SC2 and SC3), which are made from selected optimal models, presented in particular sections of the work. One part of the thesis is also the backward retropolation of age-specific number of net migrants by sex in the Czech Republic since 1948. On its basis the analysis and prediction of the migration can be done. The thesis is a synthesis of the projections of demographic processess of mortality, fertility, and migration. Final results are confronted with three scenarios of population projections of the Czech Republic created by the Czech Statistical Office and five scenarios of population projections by Eurostat. The purely statistical approach of demographic forecasting in comparison with deterministic models and expert expectations has its positives and negatives. Therefore, the different results due to various methodological approaches are discussed and compared in the conclusion of the thesis.

The aim of the dissertation thesis is to develop a methodology of the compilation of symmetric Time Input-Output tables under the conditions of the Czech Republic. The following aim is to create an input-output model which is based on the compiled symmetric Time Input-Output tables. For the practical applications of this model it is crucial to link the created Input-Output model with the Semi-Dynamic Input-Output model. Semi-Dynamic Input-Output model in the conception of the submitted dissertation thesis takes into account several multiplier effects and presents more comprehensive tool for the use of the Input-Output analyses in this way. The first chapter focuses on the development of the issues linked to the Input-Output tables and analyses on the territory of the Czech Republic and in the world as well. The second chapter which is also theoretical is focused on mapping of different kinds of Input-Output analyses which are done in the world using Physical, Time or Hybrid Input-Output tables. The third chapter is a purely methodological because here it is described the methodology of the compilation of symmetric Time Input-Output tables as well as methodological approach to the various sensitivity analyses. The fourth chapter focuses on the creation Semi-Dynamic Input-Output model and on the formal linking with the Input-Output model based on the Time Input-Output tables. The last fifth chapter is focused analytically. Methods described in the third chapter are applied on the official published data on the Czech economy. The analytical chapter is perceived in the submitted dissertation thesis as a tool for the sensitivity analysis in the sense of validation of the quality of the compiled Time Input-Output tables.

La synthèse d’images réalistes repose sur des modèles physiques décrivant les interactions entre la lumière et les matériaux attachés aux objets dans une scène tridimensionnelle. Ces modèles mathématiques sont complexes et, dans le cas général, n’admettent pas de solution analytique. Pour cette raison, l’utilisation de méthodes numériques robustes et efficaces est nécessaire. Les méthodes de Monte Carlo ou techniques alternatives comme l’utilisation de développement par fonction de base sont appropriées pour résoudre ce type de problème. Dans cette thèse par articles, nous présentons deux nouvelles techniques permettant l’in- tégration numérique efficace de matériaux complexes. En premier lieu, nous introduisons une nouvelle méthode permettant d’intégrer simultanément plusieurs dimensions définies dans le domaine angulaire et spatiale. Avoir une technique efficace est essentiel pour intégrer des matériaux avec des normales variant rapidement sous différentes conditions d’éclairage. Notre technique utilise une nouvelle formulation basée sur un histogramme sphérique définie de façon directionnelle et spatial. Ce dernier nous permet d’utiliser des harmoniques sphé- riques pour intégrer les différentes dimensions rapidement, réduisant le temps de calcul d’un facteur approximatif de 30× par rapport aux méthodes de l’état de l’art. Dans notre second travail, nous introduisons une nouvelle stratégie d’échantillonnage pour estimer le transport de lumière à l’intérieur de matériaux multicouches. En identifiant les meilleures stratégies d’échantillonnage, nous proposons une technique efficace et non biaisée pour construire des chemins de lumière à l’intérieur de ce type de matériau. Notre nouvelle approche permet d’obtenir un estimateur de Monte Carlo efficace et de faible variance dans des matériaux contenant un nombre arbitraire de couches. / Realistic computer generated images and simulations require physically-based models to properly capture and reproduce light-material interactions. The underlying mathematical formulations are complex and mandate the use of efficient numerical methods, since analytic solutions are not available. Monte Carlo integration is one such commonly used numerical method, although, alternative approaches leveraging, e.g., basis expansions, may be suitable to solve these challenging problems. In this thesis by articles, we present two works where we efficiently devise numerical integration strategies for the rendering of complex materials. First, we propose a method to compute a spatial-angular multi-dimensional integration problem present when rendering materials with high-frequency normal variation under large, angularly varying illumination. By computing and manipulating a novel spherical histogram data representation, we are able to use spherical harmonics to efficiently solve the integral, outperforming the state-of-the-art by a factor of roughly 30×. Our second work describes a high-performance Monte Carlo integration strategy for rendering layered materials. By identifying the best path sampling strategies in the micro-scale light transport context, we are able to tailor an unbiased and efficient path construction method to evaluate high throughput, low variance paths through an arbitrary number of layers.