In the literature on the emergence of the welfare state, the strength of trade unions and the organized working class is often touted as the primary driving force behind the welfare state project. Furthermore, much of the previous literature has tended to assume union homogeneity across countries, federations, industries and professions. What is conspicuously lacking from the current political science literature is a systematic analysis of real-world trade unions’ choice of labor market advocacy focus. Using a qualitative approach and studying both published union material as well as conducting a number of elite interviews with high-level union officials, this thesis studies the degree to which Swedish trade unions’ labor market policy preferences are defined by the union members’ labor market risk exposure and whether the union adheres to white-collar or blue-collar unionism. While the conclusions indeed suggest that labor market risk and blue-collar/white-collar unionism do have a systematic impact on cartain aspects of trade unions’ labor market advocacy, future “large N” studies utilizing alternative methodological approaches will be required to draw more easily generalizable conclusions.

根據行政院主計處2009年人力資源調查統計顯示，當年度自營作業人口約為一百三十三萬餘人，約占我國就業人口百分之十三的比例，高出歐美國家許多，由於國人普遍存在「寧為雞首不為牛後」的文化心態，故自營作業者為我國勞工就業時重要的選項之一。過去，自營作業者一直被當作衡量國家經濟發展落後的指標，這類人口不論是在勞動條件或社會保障方面，向來較不受重視，然而隨著貿易自由化與產業結構轉變的衝擊，農林漁牧業能吸納的就業人口逐漸減少，勞動市場所提供的正職工作也持續減少，在失業率攀升的壓力下，先進國家開始重視自營作業者吸納失業人口、調節勞動市場供需的功能，為了鼓勵失業或一般受僱勞工開創自己的就業機會，近年來歐洲國家已經逐步改善自營作業者的社會安全保障，以降低勞工投入自營作業的風險。 有鑑於自營作業者對我國就業市場之重要性，以及國際間積極改善自營作業者社會保險條件的趨勢，本研究遂以建構我國完善的自營作業者社會保障制度為目的，分別從勞工保險、職災保險與就業保險三方面，分析我國現行社會保險制度所存在之問題與缺失，再針對相關問題提出解決建議。本研究採取深度訪談的方式，瞭解自營作業者參加勞工保險的經驗與實務上所面臨的問題，更進一步透過訪談瞭解自營作業者對於本身失業風險的認知以及參加就業保險的意願。此外，本研究也透過比較研究的方式，進而瞭解其他國家對於自營作業者社會保障所採取的作法，以作為我國自營作業者社會保險政策調整方向之參考。 研究發現，我國自營作業者在勞工保險方面存在以下問題：一、勞工保險所主張的「申報主義」制度，並未一體適用於自營作業者；二、自營作業者投保資格審查責任未作明確劃分；三、自營作業者投保薪資調整的作法可能產生公平性的疑慮；在職災保險方面，目前自營作業者參加職災保險存在著職災保險給付與第三人不法行為損害賠償兼得之問題；在就業保險方面，研究發現自營作業者同樣存在著失業的風險，風險可能來自於景氣影響、同業之間的競爭或是從業地點變動等因素，加上自營作業者普遍具有教育程度偏低和中高齡的特徵，在學歷與年齡的雙重限制下，自營作業者一旦退出自營作業部門，就可能因為轉業困難而導致長期失業，甚至被迫退出勞動市場。 最後，本研究針對目前自營作業者社會保險制度相關問題，分別提出以下建議，包括勞工保險的投保資格審查作業應明確授權由職業工會行使；輔導自營作業者辦理營業登記，以實際所得作為投保薪資調整依據；勞工保險條例應增列保險人代位權之規定；將自營作業者納入就業保險之保障對象；以營業登記之註銷或繳回相關執業證照，作為自營作業者失業之認定標準。

The experience of unemployment puts individuals at risk of long-term negative scarring and the longer the unemployment spell, the greater the risk of negative scarring. In Sweden, labour market policies aim at reducing such risks in the form of unemployment benefits, active matching and active labour market policy programmes (ALMPs). However, there is frequent discussion regarding the extent to which these kinds of policies actually reduce the risk of negative scarring. It is often argued that the programmes are of poor quality, particularly during economic downturns, and participants are often not motivated for the task. Likewise, it is claimed that unemployment insurance tends to counteract a quick return to the regular labour market. One problem related to labour market policies is that it has been difficult to examine the impact of such policies. Studies often present results that appear scattered due to differences in what is actually being measured and methodological problems. The uniqueness of this thesis is that it is based on a large-scale longitudinal register of data that has provided important empirical information regarding the long-term effects of labour market policy investments. The quality of data has also enabled the use of evaluation techniques which largely can help to reduce the uncertainty of the findings. More precisely, the research questions examine (1) in what way the level of unemployment benefit functions as protection against unemployment scarring, (2) in what way the ALMPs protect long-term unemployed people from long-term unemployment scarring, (3) at what point in a business cycle the ALMPs are efficient and finally, (4) for whom do the ALMPs function to reduce the risk of negative scarring. In this thesis, scarring effects are measured as the risk of labour market exit, the risk of labour market instability and the risk of future negative wage trajectories. The methods used in most studies are Cox regressions in combination with instrumental variable analysis (the Heckman two-step procedure). The empirical findings indicate that ALMPs worked well to reduce such negative effects both in times of booms (1999) and recessions (1993) and particularly among the youngest and oldest actors on the labour market. They also function particularly well for people with a low level of education. However, it is important not to exclude unemployed people who have a high level of education, in the belief that ALMPs have nothing to offer them, since such people are particularly helped by ALMPs as regards reducing the risk of future labour market instability. It was also found that generous unemployment benefit helped to reduce the risk of future negative wage scarring. In addition to these findings, some mechanisms were identified which proved to be important tools for transforming policies into valuable resources for the unemployed. In this thesis, the value of the findings of these mechanisms is discussed from the perspective of the capability approach. Even if the same investments were made in all unemployed persons, the participants would respond differently to the investment. Some reasons for the inequality in outcomes were found within the programmes and were due to heterogeneity in the unemployment group but some reasons can actually be explained by the converters (mechanisms) that were identified in the studies. Thus, the results emphasise the importance of investing in labour market policies, particularly during economic downturns. This is the time when cuts in unemployment benefit do not help the unemployed back to the labour market since there are very few available jobs to apply for. It is also the time when the long-term unemployed should participate in ALMP-training in order to be prepared for new challenges when the labour market improves again. As a matter of fact, the results show that skills from ALMP-training have a bridging effect which indicates that these skills will be valuable on the labour market for at least another five years after the year of investment. The findings in this thesis are controversial since they differ from most research findings from the beginning of the 1990s which point to poor micro level outcomes. However, the long-term approach of this thesis is the main explanation for these new and different results.  It is argued here that a long-term approach is needed to find out the long-term effects because ALMP participation, particularly ALMP-training, is meant to be a long-term investment in human capital. A long period of time needs to pass between ALMP-investment and evaluation before the effects can show. Reported effects from ALMP investments at the beginning of the 1990s have often been measured on a short-term basis. It is not suggested that short-term effects should be ignored but it is argued that a short-term analysis provides only a fragmental description of reality, and long-term effects should be given greater priority than is usually the case since they affect the labour market prospects of the individuals over a long period of time. This thesis dispels the “myth” about the negative effects generated from ALMPs during the 1990s.

In the first part of this doctoral thesis we analyse changes in old-age income risk in Germany using micro-simulation model due to changes in employment patterns and institutional reforms. We focus on the statutory pension scheme and we analyse the old-age income risk of individuals as well as of households with respect to the skill level. Our findings help to clarify the risk of post-retirement poverty for specific household constellations We find that the risk of old-age poverty will increase for almost all new pensioners in 2020-2022 compared to new pensioners in 2004-2006. Due to the characteristics of a PAYG pension system, political decision-makers have to improve labour market participation, e.g. by support the improvement of skill level. Moreover we take a closer look at the impact of the Hartz-Reforms on wages. We use panel data to estimate the effect of the structural break on wages and find strong evidence that the decrease in unemployment benefit lowered wages. Our findings show that the Hartz-Reform induced wage restraint and may also be partly responsible for the favourable labour market situation in Germany. After analysing the effect of institutional reforms on old-age income and wage, we examine whether households adjust their savings behaviour to a change in their individual unemployment, income and health expectations. We use survey panel data on German household savings and expectations. The findings suggest, in contrast to the theory of textbook models, that a higher unemployment expectation significantly decreases the (short-term) saving rate. This result may be due to labour market legislation after the Hartz-Reforms.

失業為工業社會不可避免之問題，失業不僅影響勞工個人，亦衝擊其全家生活。為了保障勞工及其撫養家屬於失業期間之基本生活，大多數國家都設有失業補償制度，如失業保險、失業救助、離職公積金、資遣費等，其中以失業保險制度為最多國家所採行。 近年來，國內失業率攀升，日益嚴重的失業問題使得各方要求建立失業保險制度之聲浪再度高漲，政府終於在民國88年開辦「勞工保險失業給付實施辦法」，將延宕多年的失業給付諸施行。而為了整合失業給付、職業訓練與就業服務體系，勞委會邀集相關單位研擬就業保險法草案，於91年立法院三讀通過，並於92年元旦實施。 本文即以我國就業保險法為研究對象，並以ILO第168號公約為基準檢視我國就業保險法、以美國及加拿大之就業保險制度做為借鏡，試圖歸納出我國就業保險法制未來改革應遵循的方向即可避免的錯誤。本文研究結果，對我國就業保險法提出以下幾點建議： 一、參照公約及美加制度，逐步擴大適用範圍。 二、請領條件方面：擴大「非自願離職」之內涵，將非因經濟、技術、結構或類似性質等特定因素之離職情況納入考量；參照公約規定，增加評估推介就業是否合理的考量因素；考量就業服務機構推介就業的效率及勞工所能承受經濟壓力的期限，訂定較符合公約要求的等待期；加強失業再認定的查核作業。 三、保險給付改採彈性給付級距制，對於低所得者給予較高之給付替代率，以確保其能維持基本生活，並達所得重分配之效果。 四、刪除提早就業獎助津貼。 五、改善職訓與就服體系，推廣單一窗口服務制度。 六、加強投保薪資之查核作業，讓給付更能符合失業勞工生活所需。 七、參照公約及美加兩國制度，採取失業給付與資遣費相互抵償之作法，讓失業給付照顧真正需要者，減少資源浪費。

Esta tesis elabora una caracterización teórica de problemas de agencia dinámicos, basada en métodos recursivos duales. Respecto a las actuales estrategias de solución, la mayor ventaja de mi método es la posibilidad de analizar modelos complicados con muchas variables de estado, como es el caso en muchas situaciones macroeconómicas. El primer Capitulo introduce la metodología y presenta algunos ejemplos numéricos. El segundo Capitulo caracteriza contratos óptimos de participación al riesgo, en los dos casos de economía de dotación y de economía con producción, y demuestra que el método es muy simple en su aplicación a estos problemas. El tercer Capitulo analiza el seguro óptimo de desempleo bajo diferentes supuestos sobre el acceso al mercado financiero y la evolución del capital humano. / This thesis elaborates a theoretical characterization of general dynamic agency problems based on recursive duality methods. With respect to current solution strategies, the main advantage of my approach is the possibility to analyze complicated models with many state variables, as it is the case in several macroeconomic situations. The first Chapter introduces the methodology and provides some numerical example. The second Chapter provides a characterization of optimal risk sharing contracts both in endowment and production economies, and shows how the approach is easy to apply to these problems. The third Chapter analyzes optimal unemployment insurance under different assumptions on access to financial markets and human capital trends.

In the first part of this doctoral thesis we analyse changes in old-age income risk in Germany using micro-simulation model due to changes in employment patterns and institutional reforms. We focus on the statutory pension scheme and we analyse the old-age income risk of individuals as well as of households with respect to the skill level. Our findings help to clarify the risk of post-retirement poverty for specific household constellations We find that the risk of old-age poverty will increase for almost all new pensioners in 2020-2022 compared to new pensioners in 2004-2006. Due to the characteristics of a PAYG pension system, political decision-makers have to improve labour market participation, e.g. by support the improvement of skill level. Moreover we take a closer look at the impact of the Hartz-Reforms on wages. We use panel data to estimate the effect of the structural break on wages and find strong evidence that the decrease in unemployment benefit lowered wages. Our findings show that the Hartz-Reform induced wage restraint and may also be partly responsible for the favourable labour market situation in Germany. After analysing the effect of institutional reforms on old-age income and wage, we examine whether households adjust their savings behaviour to a change in their individual unemployment, income and health expectations. We use survey panel data on German household savings and expectations. The findings suggest, in contrast to the theory of textbook models, that a higher unemployment expectation significantly decreases the (short-term) saving rate. This result may be due to labour market legislation after the Hartz-Reforms.:1 Introduction 1 1.1 Summary 3 1.2 Contribution to the literature 7 1.3 References 9 2 A Fragile Pillar: Statutory Pensions and the Risk of Old-age Poverty in Germany 11 2.1 Introduction 11 2.2 The German Statutory Pension Insurance 13 2.3 Methodology 16 2.4 Results 22 2.4.1 Male pensioners 22 2.4.2 Female pensioners 25 2.4.3 Relevance of skill 27 2.5 Sensitivity Analysis 31 2.6 Conclusion 34 2.7 References 37 2.8 Appendix 40 3 Is There a Growing Risk of Old-age Poverty in Eastern Germany? 44 3.1 Introduction 44 3.2 The German Pension System 46 3.3 Demographic Setting in Eastern Germany 48 3.4 Data and Methodology 49 3.5 Single-person Households 52 3.5.1 Males 52 3.5.2 Females 55 II 3.6 Two-Person-Households 57 3.7 Widows 62 3.8 Conclusion 64 3.9 References 65 3.10 Appendix 66 4 Unemployment Compensation and Wages: Evidence from the German Hartz-Reform 68 4.1 Introduction 68 4.2 The German Hartz-Reform 69 4.3 Data 71 4.4 Methodology 73 4.5 Results 76 4.6 Conclusions 82 4.7 References 84 4.8 Data 87 4.9 Appendix 88 5 Expectations and Saving Behavior: An Empirical Analysis 93 5.1 Introduction 93 5.2 Theoretical Discussion 95 5.3 Data 97 5.4 Empirical Strategy 100 5.5 Empirical Results 104 5.6 Conclusions 114 5.7 References 117 5.8 Data 119 5.9 Appendix 120

This dissertation consists of three essays in public economics. The three chapters focus on interactions between public and private economic decisions. The first two chapters focus on unemployment insurance (UI) policy in the United States. The third discusses public-private interactions in the education market. The first chapter, a joint work with Arindrajit Dube, Calvin Jahnke, Raymond Kluender, Suresh Naidu, and Michael Stepner estimates the labor supply and spending responses to a large change in UI benefits during the pandemic. We examine the effects of the sudden withdrawal of expanded pandemic unemployment benefits in June 2021 using anonymized bank transaction data for 16,548 individuals receiving UI in April 2021. Comparing the difference in differences between states withdrawing and retaining expanded UI, we find that UI receipt falls 35 p.p. while employment rises by only 4.4 p.p. by early August. Average cumulative UI benefits fall by $1,385 while average cumulative earnings increase by only $93. Heterogeneity by unemployment duration implies that these effects are primarily driven by extensive margin expiration of benefits, rather than intensive margin reductions in the benefit level. The second chapter examines the role of gifts and loans from friends and family during unemployment. These transfers play a largely unstudied informal insurance role in high-income countries, making it difficult to assess their implications for social insurance policy. I present new results on informal insurance paid via person-to-person (P2P) payment platforms using a survey-linked administrative bank transaction dataset covering 130,502 low-income users from the US who were unemployed at least once between July 2019 and September 2020. Event study estimates show average monthly inflows from all P2P platforms increase by $30, or 2% of lost earnings, one month after job loss before returning to baseline over 10 months. Single mothers and the long-term unemployed receive the largest increases, as do those living in high-income areas. I exploit three plausibly exogenous changes to federal pandemic unemployment insurance (UI) policy to estimate that UI benefits crowd out at most $0.04 of informal P2P transfers. Using the social insurance framework introduced in Chetty & Saz (2010), my crowd-out estimates indicate negligible welfare consequences for an additional dollar of benefits. Altogether these results imply that public UI benefits can raise welfare by pooling risk across networks without reducing within-network targeting of informal insurance. The third chapter asks whether public school services fill in gaps left by private school failures. Specifically, it explores what type of schools enter the market and experience an increase in enrollment after reports of abuse by Catholic priests lead to Catholic Schools closures. I use a two-way fixed effects event study method to estimate a change in enrollments and number of different types of schools after a report of priest abuse within the same zip code, school district, or county. I find there are 0.2 fewer Catholic schools and Catholic school enrollment falls by 75 students after six years, which are offset by a 0.2 and 50-student increase in charter school counts and enrollments on average. These increases are unique to charter schools and is not observed in other public or non-Catholic private schools. Altogether, these results suggest that former Catholic schooled families show a preference for charter schools over other public schools, which may be due to the low-cost and similar emphasis on discipline and academic achievement.

[pt] O presente trabalho tem como objetivo refletir sobre a produção científica acerca do Programa Seguro-desemprego brasileiro (PSD). Para tal, apresentamos os fundamentos do PSD, seu modo de funcionamento e seu caráter mediador, dentro das políticas de proteção social vigentes no modo de produção capitalista. O PSD é a principal política de proteção ao trabalhador demitido no Brasil e em vários países do mundo. Sua importância está diretamente ligada ao funcionamento do mercado de trabalho e a minimização dos impactos da exploração capitalista na vida dos trabalhadores, agregando pagamento, qualificação profissional e intermediação da força de trabalho. Por tamanha envergadura, ele tem sido, desde o final dos anos 1980, objeto de diversos estudos dos mais variados campos do conhecimento, apontando assim para a necessidade de sistematização do estado do conhecimento, para que seja possível traçar um mapa analítico que facilite a compreensão e também aponte os consensos construídos. Considerando a modalidade PSD Trabalhador Formal, esta tese busca respostas para o seguinte problema: como tem sido a produção científica sobre o Programa Seguro-desemprego brasileiro e quais consensos estão sendo construídos nessas produções? Para dar conta dessas questões, realizamos uma pesquisa qualitativa, de caráter explicativo, tendo como fontes teses, dissertações e artigos sobre o PSD, no intervalo entre 1990 e 2017. Os repositórios utilizados para a busca das teses e dissertações foram o Banco de Teses da Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES), a Biblioteca Digital Brasileira de Teses e Dissertações (BDTD) e a plataforma Domínio Público. A busca pelos artigos foi feita através da EBSCOhost. Compõem o universo da pesquisa 9 teses, 12 dissertações e 13 artigos. Foi possível constatar que a maior parte dos estudos são das regiões Sudeste e Centro-oeste, oriundos de universidades federais e de programas de pós-graduação em Economia. Os temas mais abordados são a qualificação profissional e os efeitos adversos do pagamento. Há consenso de que a qualificação profissional compulsória no PSD gera aumento do capital humano e empregabilidade, posição teórica que culpabiliza os trabalhadores pelo desemprego e com a qual esta tese não corrobora. Há, porém, os que entendem que a qualificação, da forma como está posta, além de não garantir emprego, ainda contribui para a retirada de direitos. Quanto ao pagamento, há consenso de que o trabalhador está suscetível ao risco moral, tendendo a criar situações para ter acesso às parcelas do PSD e a se acomodar enquanto as recebe. Diante disso, alguns estudos defendem regressão das parcelas, estratégias de controle do esforço, utilização do tempo do trabalhador para qualificação e maior efetividade dos serviços de intermediação como soluções para o risco moral. Percebe-se que o PSD tem sido analisado a partir de um forte viés de controle e exploração da força de trabalho, bem como redução de direitos e obtenção do consenso em torno de uma visão de mundo em que o programa não é entendido como um direito social. / [en] This paper aims to reflect on the scientific production about the Brazilian Unemployment Insurance Program (PSD). To this end, we present the fundamentals of the PSD, its mode of operation and its mediating character, within the social protection policies in force in the capitalist mode of production. The PSD is the main policy to protect the laid-off worker in Brazil and in several countries of the world. Its importance is directly linked to the functioning of the labor market and the minimization of the impacts of capitalist exploitation on workers lives, adding pay, professional qualification and workforce intermediation. For such a large extent, it has been, since the late 1980s, the object of several studies from various fields of knowledge, thus pointing to the need for systematization of the state of knowledge, so that it is possible to draw an analytical map that facilitates understanding and also point out the consensus built. Considering the PSD Formal Worker modality, this thesis seeks answers to the following problem: how has the scientific production been about the Brazilian Unemployment Insurance Program and what consensus is being built on these productions? To address these issues, we conducted a qualitative, explanatory research, using as sources theses, dissertations and articles on the PSD, between 1990 and 2017. The repositories used to search for theses and dissertations were the Bank of Theses of Higher Education Personnel Improvement Coordination (CAPES), the Brazilian Digital Library of Theses and Dissertations (BDTD) and the Public Domain platform. The search for articles was done through EBSCOhost. The research universe comprises 9 theses, 12 dissertations and 13 articles. Most studies are from the Southeast and Midwest, coming from federal universities and postgraduate programs in Economics. The most discussed topics are professional qualification and the adverse effects of payment. There is consensus that the compulsory professional qualification in the PSD generates increased human capital and employability, a theoretical position that blames workers for unemployment and with which this thesis does not corroborate. However, there are those who understand that qualification, as it stands, in addition to not guaranteeing employment, also contributes to the withdrawal of rights. Regarding payment, there is consensus that the worker is susceptible to moral hazard, tending to create situations to access the portions of the PSD and to accommodate while receiving them. Given this, some studies advocate plot regression, effort control strategies, use of worker time for qualification and greater effectiveness of intermediation services as solutions to moral hazard. It is clear that the PSD has been analyzed from a strong control and exploitation bias of the workforce, as well as reduction of rights and consensus building around a world view in which the program is not understood as a social right.

<p>This study is an exploration of why policy outcomes in the sectors of child care and unemployment insurance, between the time period 1972 to 1996, did not meet the policy goals of the National Action Committee on the Status of Women (NAC) in Canada and the National Women's Council of lreland (NWCI). Specifically, this study sought to explain why successive governments in Canada and Ireland persistently resisted the implementation of policy goals put forth by NAC and NWCI in the sectors of child care and unemployment insurance, or when they did respond, policy outcomes had differential impacts on women. With this in mind, the overall research question of this study was: What happened to the policy goals ofNAC and NWCI once they were articulated to government?</p> <p>In order to answer this question, this study merged the theoretics of historical institutionalism with feminist political economy into a theoretical framework I have termed feminist-institutionalism. This framework was applied to argue that policy institutions (as mediators and containers ofgendered social relations) redefine feminist policy goals articulated by women's groups to government into gendered policy outcomes that often undermine the original intent of those goals. I have called this process of redefinition policy transformation. By employing a framework of analysis three spheres of policy transformation -this study comparatively maps out the processes, institutions and factors within the macro-political policy context which contributed to an overall lack of success on the part of NAC and NWCI in the realization of their child care and unemployment insurance policy goals. One of the conclusions of this study is that NAC and NWCI were equally unsuccessful even given stark differences between macro-political institutional structures and interest representation systems in Canada and Ireland.</p> / Doctor of Philosophy (PhD)