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  • About
  • The Global ETD Search service is a free service for researchers to find electronic theses and dissertations. This service is provided by the Networked Digital Library of Theses and Dissertations.
    Our metadata is collected from universities around the world. If you manage a university/consortium/country archive and want to be added, details can be found on the NDLTD website.
21

券商分析師研究報告、個人特質與參考資訊對散戶投資人投資績效影響之研究

陳杰廷 Unknown Date (has links)
券商分析師的研究報告、投資者的個人特質、參考資訊皆會影響投資者的投資決策與策略,而投資決策的差異會影響到投資者的投資報酬與績效。而現行投資學理論中,較偏重於對證券的風險與報酬的分析或投資組合的分析,故本研究試著以散戶投資者之個人特質與參考資訊為出發點,對投資者的投資行為作一探索,希望能藉此分析出投資者在哪些特質上或是何種資訊上能夠獲取較高的報酬。 本研究主要在探討投資者的個人特質與參考資訊,對於投資者的操作策略、投資績效之影響。另外,亦探討券商分析師報告對於投資者是否具有資訊價值、是否真能幫助散戶投資者獲取較高的報酬。本研究以台灣地區證券市場自然人(散戶)為主要研究對象,採問卷法進行研究,資料分析結果與結論如下: 一、投資者的個人特質變數(風險態度、投資自信程度)與參考資訊變數(主要消息來源、推薦資訊重視內容)大致上是彼此獨立、互相不影響,只有在主要消息來源變數會對投資自信程度變數會有些許的干擾與影響。 二、投資人重視的推薦資訊內容會顯著的影響投資者在操作策略的使用以及影響其投資績效;另外,在不同的投資自信程度上,則會對投資者的績效報酬有所影響。而投資者在操作策略上的不同,並不會就能帶來較高的報酬,反而是採用追漲殺跌策略較為頻繁者,容易有投資損失。 三、投資人不論是否有依據分析師研究報告都無法獲得較高的報酬;同時分析也發現,聽取外資的研究報告並無法顯著的可以得到較高的報酬。但是,分析結果也指出,仍有很高比率的散戶投資人,即使依據研究報告投資失利後,日後仍願意繼續參考該券商或分析師的研究報告,顯示分析師及研究報告在散戶投資者心中仍佔有一定的參考價值與指標作用。
22

財務分析師大膽及領導特性與盈餘預測準確度之探討

林佳慧 Unknown Date (has links)
本研究以I/B/E/S中2004至2005年所有美國公司為樣本,依財務分析師盈餘預測值與所有財務分析師盈餘預測平均值之差異程度,將財務分析師分類為大膽或膽怯的財務分析師,並依財務分析師盈餘預測發布之時點將財務分析師分類為領導型或從眾型財務分析師。針對財務分析師盈餘預測行為大膽及領導特性,探討時效性領導型財務分析師之盈餘預測是否會較大膽,並進一步研究大膽的財務分析師其盈餘預測準確度是否較高,以及時效性之領導型財務分析師其盈餘預測準確度是否較高。 研究結果發現時效性之領導型財務分析師其盈餘預測行為會較大膽,但大膽的財務分析師其盈餘預測準確度較低,且時效性之領導型財務分析師其盈餘預測準確度並未出現較高的現象。 / Security analysts can be characterized as bold or herding based on the absolute distance between their earnings forecasts and the consensus forecast. Security analysts can also be classified as lead or following based on the timeliness of their earnings forecasts. Based on I/B/E/S annual earnings forecasts of all American companies during the period of 2004-2005, this study addresses the association between bold and lead and the relation between bold forecast and forecast accuracy. In addition, the relation between lead forecast and forecast accuracy is investigated as well. It is shown that lead analysts are bolder than following analysts and boldness likelihood increases with the frequency of analysts’ forecast and declines with the analysts’ prior accuracy. Further, bold analysts’ earnings forecasts are less accurate than herding analysts’ and lead analysts’ earnings forecasts are less accurate than following analysts.
23

證券市場與分析師對企業更名之反應:以澳洲市場為例 / Stock Market and Analysts Reactions to Corporate Name Changes: Evidence from the Australian Capital Market

劉向晴, Liu, Hsiang Ching Unknown Date (has links)
This paper investigates the impact of corporate name changes on both of stock performance and analysts’ reaction with the employment of event study. We first examine a sample of 387 listed Australian companies that renamed themselves during the time frame from January 2001 to December 2007. Separate analyses are conducted under three criterion dividing the overall sample into (1)”major” versus “minor” name changes; (2)name changes in “mining-related” versus “non-mining-related” sectors; and (3)name changes “with” versus “without” reasons mentioned. Generally, we find some evidence of significant negative association between corporate name changes and cumulative abnormal return. The result shows, unlike all other subgroups, name changes “with” reasons mentioned generate insignificant positive valuation effects. Separate analyses give two important implications. First, negative cumulative abnormal return in all subgroups is discovered except in the subgroup of name changes “with” reasons mentioned. The difference of abnormal returns within subgroups, in addition, appears to be significant only between name change with reasons mentioned or not. Our findings suggest that analysts react reluctantly to corporate name changes by showing tiny downward forecast revisions, which are far from significant. Instead, it seems analysts make forecast revisions based more on accounting data, which shows insignificant variations between pre- and post-event, than on signals of corporate name changes.
24

內部關係人持股異動行為與財務分析師盈餘預測之相關性研究

洪淑華, Hung, Su-Hua Unknown Date (has links)
台灣股市流動性高居世界之冠,交易成本低,但相對而言,內線交易的嚴重性也是眾所皆知的,國際洛桑管理學院(IMD)在1999年即將台灣股市內線交易評等為42名。足見在各界戮力全面提升國家競爭力之際,有效遏止股市內線交易,以健全股市發展,已至刻不容緩的地步。公司的內部關係人,由於職務上的關係,容易接近公司管理階層,或本身就是管理當局,極易獲取公司重大情報和足以影響股價的消息,當然也可能會影響財務預測的品質,根據以往文獻指出,內部關係人股權異動情形具有其資訊內涵。內部關係人甚至會利用與管理當局合作或是與分析師合作的方式,操縱其盈餘預測值,以安排股權異動的時點。 本研究主要的實證議題有四:(1)分析師預測修正的方向與大小,與修正日前公佈的內部關係人淨買進股數是否有關?(2)內部關係人持股變動後,分析師盈餘預測誤差是否會變小(與實際盈餘相比)?(3)實際盈餘宣告日前(後),內部關係人是否會買進較多被低估(高估)(最近一次分析師預測值低(高)於實際宣告值)的股票?(4)實際盈餘宣告日前(後),內部關係人淨買進股數是否與股票價值被低估(高估)的程度有關? 實證結果發現: 一、在大規模公司的樣本群組中,當內部關係人股權異動屬淨賣出(淨買入)的情況時,分析師會向下(上)調整其盈餘預測值。但實證結果並不支持內部關係人股權異動的程度,會顯著影響分析師盈餘預測修正幅度;就小規模公司樣本而言,則無法獲致修正日前公佈的內部關係人股權異動行為與分析師盈餘預測修正幅度有顯著相關的結果。 二、在大規模公司樣本中,內部關係人在盈餘預測揭露前一個月的淨買入比率,很有可能會使分析師盈餘預測準確度提高。其餘的分析師盈餘預測修正日前三個月的內部關係人股權異動比率,對分析師盈餘預測準確度,並沒有顯著的影響。 三、大規模公司盈餘公告日前(後),內部關係人確有可能在分析師盈餘預測高(低)估後,於盈餘公告日前增加(轉讓)持股數,而於盈餘公告日後轉讓(增加)持股。但是實證並不支持分析師盈餘預測準確度的程度,會顯著影響內部關係人的持股異動。 四、小規模公司盈餘宣告日前的樣本群組,內部關係人確有可能在分析師盈餘預測高(低)估後,於盈餘公告日前增加(轉讓)持股數。但盈餘公告日後的樣本群組無法獲致顯著的結果,也就是說內部關係人在分析師盈餘預測高(低)估後,沒有顯著的在盈餘宣告日後轉讓(增加)其持股。
25

財務分析師盈餘預測行為分析與探討

陳啟文, Chen, Chi-Wen Unknown Date (has links)
本研究主要是針對財務分析師盈餘預測行為作相關方面的探討,以相對盈餘誤差、分析師反應過度與不足及因素探討等作研究。研究的方向如下: 一、將探討民國八十一年到民國八十八年財務分析師的預測行為與趨勢,藉以瞭解分析師是否普遍持有樂觀的態度或是保守態度,以及這些現象是否存在趨勢。  二、研究分析師預測行為,是否存在過度反應或反應不足的現象,期以另一個角度研究財務分析師的行為,以藉此支持上述的研究發現。  三、最後,將研究影響財務分析師的盈餘預測行為之因素,利用過去文獻研究分析師準確性之因素,與導入新變數,探討分析師的行為是否受到個體與總體的變數影響。
26

強制性財務預測與分析師財務預測差異性研究

蔡永元 Unknown Date (has links)
本研究是透過盈餘管理及預測更新與否、公司管理當局的持股比率、負債比例、公司規模、市場風險、公司成長力、盈餘變異程度等因素,探討民國八十一年至八十六年間國內149上市公司,強制性盈餘預測與分析師盈餘預測精確度與公司特質的關聯性。 本實證結果發現: 一、管理當局強制性盈餘預測準確度與盈餘管理有顯著相關。 二、不論是強制性預測或分析師預測,預測更新愈頻繁,盈餘預測準確度愈高。 三、不論是強制性預測或分析師預測,公司規模愈大,盈餘預測準確度愈高。 四、負債比率與盈餘預測準確度有相關性。 五、公司風險與盈餘預測準確度具有相關性。 六、公司成長力與盈餘預測準確度具有相關性。 / above
27

股價行情與金融研究機構彙報發佈有何影響:根據道瓊30成分股 / How Financial Research Firms’ Reports Affect Stock Prices: Evidence from the Dow 30

李英豪, Ying-Hao Lee January 1900 (has links)
根據效率市場假說(Efficient-market hypothesis,EMH),倘若市場是具有效率性的,投資者無法預測股票未來的走勢,包括專業的基金經理人員。但是,在許多財經新聞媒體、商業報紙與商業週刊中,發現證劵經理人或分析師在金融市場中大膽的預測股票未來的走向。這些資訊吸引許多投資者紛紛進場投資,期許能獲得更多利潤。然而,投資者卻忽視發佈的資訊時間點的重要性,幾乎很難求證此消息是否真實。本研究希望探討投資機構之研究彙報能否為投資者帶來異常報酬,並印證市場效率性是否存在。本研究資料透過公開的資訊網站Yahoo Finance收集美國道瓊工業30成份股的資料之金融研究機構建議操作方向,利用事件研究法(Event Study Method)來進行分析。實證結果發現事件發生時,不論是推薦買進或賣出,平均異常報酬率(AAR)有顯著的異於零的報酬率,證實金融研究機構所建議的操作方向的確吸引到市場的注意,造成股價異常波動。而累計平均異常報酬率(CAAR)則是顯示事件發生後約4週,建議買進的事件會出現相當利潤。除此之外,本研究亦針對不同金融研究機構的績效分別進行討論,然而並無發現各金融研究機構有顯著的差異。 / According to the Efficient-Market hypothesis (EMH), if the market is to have efficiency, the investor or professional fund managers cannot predict the future trends of a stock. However, in many financial news media, business newspapers and Business Week, we can find securities managers or analysts in the financial markets boldly predicting the future direction of a stock. This information attracts many investors who enter into investments, hoping to gain more profit. However, investors have neglected the importance of published information at a point in time, and in hindsight, it was hard to verify whether or not this news is true. The present study is to investigate that the mechanism of investment research reports can bring abnormal returns for investors, and confirm the existence of market efficiency. The studies suggested actions of directing public information through research institutions news site Yahoo Finance and collected 30 constituent stocks of the Dow Jones Industrial, to analyze the use of the event study method. The empirical results show when the event occurred, whether it was a buy or sell recommendation, the average abnormal return rate(AAR)has a phenomenal rate of return difference from zero, confirming that the proposed research institutions operating direction did attract the market's attention, resulting in abnormal fluctuations of the stock price. The cumulative average abnormal return rate(CAAR) is a show about four weeks after the incident that recommends buying the event will be quite profitable. In addition, this study discussed separately the performance of different research institutions, however, it found no significant differences between various research institutions. / 目錄 摘要.............................................................................................................Ⅰ Abstract........................................................................................................Ⅱ 目錄............................................................................................................Ⅲ 圖目錄..........................................................................................................Ⅴ 表目錄..........................................................................................................Ⅵ 第壹章 緒論....................................................................................................1 第一節 研究動機.................................................................................................1 第二節 研究目的................................................................................................2 第三節 研究架構.................................................................................................3 第四節 研究貢獻.................................................................................................3 第貳章 文獻回顧.................................................................................................3 第一節 效率市場理論..............................................................................................3 第二節 效率市場層面..............................................................................................5 第三節 專家推薦層面..............................................................................................7 第四節 綜合評析..................................................................................................8 第參章 資料來源與研究方法.........................................................................................8 第一節 資料來源..................................................................................................8 第二節 研究方法.................................................................................................10 第肆章 實證分析.................................................................................................11 第一節 資料敘述.................................................................................................11 第二節 模型設計.................................................................................................13 第三節 結果分析.................................................................................................20 第伍章 結論與建議...............................................................................................33 第一節 結論....................................................................................................33 第二節 後續研究建議.............................................................................................35 參考文獻.........................................................................................................36 中文部分.........................................................................................................36 英文部分.........................................................................................................37 附錄.............................................................................................................38 附錄一 道瓊30成分股中之各證劵彙報建議買進(Upgrade)之個股平均異常報酬(AAR)與累計平均異常報酬(CAAR)圖..................38 附錄二 道瓊30成分股中之各證劵彙報建議賣出(Downgrade)之個股平均異常報酬(AAR)與累計平均異常報酬(CAAR)圖................45 附錄三 篩選後,各家金融研究機構發佈彙報之建議買進(Upgrade)之個股平均異常報酬(AAR)與累計平均個股異常報酬(CAAR)圖........52 附錄四 篩選後,各家金融研究機構發佈彙報之建議賣出(Downgrade)之個股平均異常報酬(AAR)與累計平均個股異常報酬(CAAR)圖......57 圖目錄 圖1. Fama et.al.之資本市場效率分成三種假說特性.......................................................................5 圖2. 事件研究法模型的時間線圖.......................................................................................15 圖3. 道瓊30成分股之全部研究彙報建議買進(Upgrade)的平均個股異常報酬(AAR)圖............................................28 圖4. 道瓊30成分股之全部研究彙報建議買進(Upgrade)累計平均個股異常報酬(CAAR)圖..........................................28 圖5. 道瓊30成分股之全部研究彙報建議賣出(Downgrade)的平均個股異常報酬(AAR)圖...........................................29 圖6. 道瓊30成分股之全部研究彙報建議賣出(Downgrade)累計平均個股異常報酬(CAAR)圖........................................29 表目錄 表1. 道瓊30工業指數之成分股(Dow Jones Industrial Index of 30 stocks, ^DJI).........................................9 表2. 所有金融研究機構有給予道瓊30成分股的總發佈彙報次數................................................................12 表3. 道瓊30篩選後之金融研究機構與彙報發佈次數.........................................................................13 表4. 道瓊30成分股中個別證劵建議買進(Upgrade)的平均個股異常報酬(AAR)...................................................24 表5. 道瓊30成分股中個別證劵建議賣出(Downgrade)的平均個股異常報酬(AAR).................................................25 表6. 道瓊30成分股中個別證劵建議買進(Upgrade)的累計平均個股異常報酬(CAAR)...............................................26 表7. 道瓊30成分股中個別證劵建議賣出(Downgrade)的累計平均個股異常報酬(CAAR).............................................27 表8. 篩選後,各家金融研究機構發佈彙報之建議買進(Upgrade)的平均個股異常報酬(AAR).........................................30 表9. 篩選後,各家金融研究機構發佈彙報之建議賣出(Downgrade)的平均個股異常報酬(AAR).......................................31 表10. 篩選後,各家金融研究機構發佈彙報之建議買進(Upgrade)的累計平均個股異常報酬(CAAR)...................................32 表11. 篩選後,各家金融研究機構發佈彙報之建議賣出(Downgrade)的累計平均個股異常報酬(CAAR).................................33
28

CVCS模型與CVCS'模型盈餘預測準確度與資訊內涵之探討

張嘉玲, Chang, Chia Ling Unknown Date (has links)
本研究探討Banker and Chen (2006)建構之CVCS模型與本研究建構之CVCS’模型之盈餘預測準確度與資訊內涵,並以ROE模型、OPINC模型、CASHFLOW模型與分析師盈餘預測作為判斷CVCS模型與CVCS’模型是否具有盈餘預測準確度與資訊內涵之比較基準模型。盈餘預測準確度之實證結果顯示:(1)CVCS模型之盈餘預測準確度低於ROE模型、OPINC模型與CASHFLOW模型之盈餘預測準確度;(2)CVCS’模型與ROE模型、OPINC模型、CASHFLOW模型之盈餘預測準確度並無差異;(3)CVCS模型之盈餘預測準確度低於分析師盈餘預測之盈餘預測準確度;(4)CVCS’模型之盈餘預測準確度低於分析師盈餘預測之盈餘預測準確度。資訊內涵之實證結果顯示:(1)CVCS模型之資訊內涵高於ROE模型、OPINC模型與CASHFLOW模型之資訊內涵;(2)CVCS’模型之資訊內涵低於ROE模型、OPINC模型與CASHFLOW模型之資訊內涵;(3)CVCS模型之資訊內涵低於分析師盈餘預測之資訊內涵;(4)CVCS’模型之資訊內涵低於分析師盈餘預測之資訊內涵。 / This study examines the forecast accuracy and the information content of CVCS model, proposed by Banker and Chen (2006), and CVCS’ model, constructed by this study. To evaluate the performances of these two models, this study uses ROE model, OPINC model, CASHFLOW model and analysts’ consensus forecasts as the benchmarks. The results of forecast accuracy show (1) the forecast accuracy of CVCS model is less than that of ROE model, OPINC model, and CASHFLOW model, (2) the forecast accuracy of CVCS’ model is not different from that of ROE model, OPINC model, and CASHFLOW model, (3) the forecast accuracy of CVCS model is less than that of analysts’ consensus forecasts and (4) the forecast accuracy of CVCS’ model is less than that of analysts’ consensus forecasts. The results of information content show (1) the information content of CVCS model is greater than that of ROE model, OPINC model, and CASHFLOW model, (2) the information content of CVCS’ model is less than that of ROE model, OPINC model, and CASHFLOW model, (3) the information content of CVCS model is less than that of analysts consensus forecasts, (4) the information content of CVCS’ model is less than that of analysts consensus forecasts.
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分析師預測修正與盈餘組成項目變動關連性之實證研究 / Relationship between revision of analysts’forecasts and changes in earnings’components: An empirical stduy

郭經緯 Unknown Date (has links)
本研究從損益表角度切入,驗證分析師盈餘預測之修正與未預期盈餘組成項目變動之關係,是否有助於分析師預測公司未來盈餘的波動。實證結果顯示,分析師在不同時間點所做的預測修正與未預期盈餘組成項目變動顯著相關。分析師預測公司當期及次期盈餘時,會考量其未預期盈餘組成項目。此外,分析師預測修正與未預期盈餘組成項目之關連性與兩者之時距呈反向關係,亦即次期盈餘預測之修正與當期未預期盈餘組成項目之關係顯著較低。再者,分析師對當期(以月份為基礎)盈餘的累積預測修正與上一期的未預期盈餘組成項目息息相關,且隨著時間的推移,二者之關連程度愈趨明顯。整體而言,損益表盈餘組成項目之變動對分析師在不同時間點所做之盈餘預測,具有價值攸關性。 / This study examines whether earnings components can help financial analysts predict firms’ earnings by investigating the association between analysts’ forecast revisions and firms’ unexpected changes in earnings components. Our results show that analysts’ forecast revisions made in different time horizons are consistently associated with unexpected changes in earnings components. Financial analysts are able to incorporate current-year unexpected earnings components into their current and future earnings forecasts even before firms officially release this information. Current-year’s unexpected earnings components are, however, not fully incorporated into analysts’ forecasts of future earnings. Analysts appear to wait for more information releases regarding firms’ future earnings and delay their revisions of future earnings forecasts. This is consistent with the evidence that the cumulative revisions of current earnings forecasts are generally associated with its prior-year’s unexpected earnings components, and the association appears to be stronger as time progresses. Overall, this study provides evidence suggesting that earnings components do have value relevance and can help financial analysts identify firms’ earnings changes over time.
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資訊環境與中國企業海外上市

蔣瑤馨, Chiang, Yao Hsin Unknown Date (has links)
隨著中國經濟快速發展,許多中國企業選擇海外上市以因應全球化的潮流,雖然海外上市必須遵守當地交易所設定之規範與要求,但也讓企業享受到外部融資、提高股票流動性、增加知名度、改善公司治理水準等好處。本文則以上市地點之資訊環境作為判斷指標,探討中國企業以香港、美國、新加坡作為海外上市地點是否由於當地擁有良好的資訊環境。樣本期間為2007年,將分析師預測盈餘報導數量及盈餘預測誤差當作資訊環境的代理變數,分別用來衡量資訊環境之數量與質量,以OLS迴歸模型進行分析,本文所欲探討之議題之一為海外上市是否能改善企業的資訊環境,另一議題則是分析各海外上市地點的資訊環境有無差異。 實證結果顯示:一、以分析師預測數量作為代理變數,於香港、美國、新加坡三地上市皆能改善資訊環境,且香港及美國之間不存在差異,但兩地均優於新加坡;二、以預測誤差作為代理變數,只有當企業於美國上市時預測誤差顯著降低,於新加坡上市則預測誤差反而增加,顯示該地資訊環境品質不佳;三、公司規模愈大、盈餘波動愈小,則企業所獲得的報導數量較多,且預測誤差亦降低。

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