自2007年爆發次級房貸風暴後，造成許多原本信用良好的企業出現財務危機，甚至倒閉，引發一連串公司間違約傳染的連鎖效應。因此，公司間或是產業間之榮枯是相互關聯的，且均會受到違約傳染和總體經濟因素的影響。另外，近年來新型態的信用衍生性商品逐漸發展起來，例如：遠期生效擔保債權憑證、擔保債權憑證選擇權等，這些商品與以往不同的地方，是與時間有著強烈的相關性，而以往評價常用的單因子相關模型，因其無法描述損失分配的期間結構，造成無法評價與時間高度相關的信用衍生性商品。是以，許多學者開始研究動態的信用違約模型，藉此描述損失分配的期間結構。因此，本研究結合違約傳染效果與動態信用違約模型，假設個別公司存活機率之對數轉換服從跳躍過程，並將資產池內的資產分為傳染公司與被傳染公司，發展出容易執行與從市場資料校準參數的動態違約傳染模型。之後利用市場上的資料校準模型參數，並說明次級房貸風暴發生前後，參數改變的結果。 結果反應出發生次級房貸風暴後，傳染效果與總體經濟因素的變數明顯的變大，且損失分配的重心明顯的向右方移動，與事實一致。除此之外，利用校準出的參數評價遠期生效擔保債權憑證與擔保債權憑證選擇權，並分析參數改變對於擔保債權憑證選擇權的變化，發現傳染效果和跳躍高度與擔保債權憑證選擇權是反向關係，而回復率與擔保債權憑證選擇權是正向關係。最後計算擔保債權憑證選擇權之避險參數，提供避險者避險決策的依據。

摘要 2007年初美國發生次級房貸大量違約, 陸續有銀行倒閉, 進而撼 動整個美國與歐洲股市。一向與美國有密切貿易關係的台灣,在此事 件中到底受到多大的影響? 本文利用DCC模型探討次貸風暴前後,台 美股價間的關係是否有發生顯著的變化? 實證結果發現: 台灣與美國 的動態相關係數在次級房貸之後, 反而變小, 可見台灣的股市並未受 到很大的衝擊, 而亞洲地區的大多數國家也都與台灣相似,與美國的 動態相關係數變小,可見亞洲地區在次貸風暴中扮演著避風港的角色。

無 / This study investigates the monetary effects under the floating exchange rates and imperfect capital mobility by extending the model of Bernanke and Blinder (1988) into a small open economy. It is shown that with credit channel of monetary transmission explicitly considered, the effect of monetary policy on output may be augmented or lessen in our model depending on whether the exchange rate depreciates or appreciates. In addition, the exchange rate puzzle found in the empirical studies can be explained in our theoretical model. The dynamic adjustment patterns of the output and the exchange rate after an increase in money supply are further examined. Under the case of relative high capital mobility, when the real output gradually adjusts toward a higher level, the exchange rate may overshoot, undershoot, or even counter-shoot during the dynamic adjustment process. This provides another one explanation for the volatility of exchange rates under floating rates. Therefore, as financial markets become more internationalized, the conduct of monetary policy turns more complicated in an open economy.

選舉是實行民主政治最有效的方法之一，而選區劃分的方式將直接或間接的影響投票結果與民主政治理念的施行。 然而在選舉法規或行政區域發生變動時，舊有的選區劃分方式需要隨之調整。而傳統人工的方式具有許多缺點，如：耗費人力資源、人口分配不均、難以兼顧形狀及行政區完整等等。若每次行政區域發生變動，都需要重新劃分，將花費許多不必要的人力、物力及時間，因此利用電腦以完成自動劃分的技術逐漸受到重視。 本論文中我們打破現有的政治與人文鴻溝，嘗試以系統化的方法對選區劃分作全面性的查驗。我們利用計算幾何學的特性與人工智慧搜尋的技巧，儘量找出可能的劃分方式再進行評估。我們依據中選會的建議採用村裡為劃分之最小行政區域，從數以十萬計之合理解中，根據形狀等客觀條件篩選出較佳之劃分方式，進而將歷史投票行為加入考量，以對篩選出的劃分方式作進一步評估與分析。 實作中我們以台南市為對象，在不同的人口限制及形狀條件下，分別比較所能找到的合理解數目。同時選出一部分的劃分方式，和中選會的劃分方式比較，結果顯示我們的方法可以全面性的分析選區劃分，不同的劃分方式可能產生不同的選舉結果。 / Election is one of the most effective way of conducting democratic politics, and mean of electoral redistricting shall post effect, either directly or indirectly, on electoral outcome as well as delivering ideas of democratic politics. As election regulations or administrational districts experience alterations, the present electoral districting is forcefully accompanied with adjustments. Electoral redistricting using traditional human labor works reveal several flaws such as: human resource wastage, uneven population distributions, hard to maintain shape contiguity and compactness, as well as the completeness of administration districts. Every single alteration experience in administration district requires redistribution, thus expensing on unnecessary human labor, resources and time. As such, it had brought great attention on techniques of automatic redistribution by means of modern computer technologies. In this thesis, we shall breakthrough a giant gap between politics and humanity; conduct a thorough examination on systematic approach on electoral redistricting. We are going to utilize characteristics of computational geometry and artificial intelligence searching techniques to find out every conceivable means of redistricting then evaluation the performance of them. By recommendation of Central Election Commission (hence CEM), we will adopt the classification of township as basic unit of administrational district, from counts of thousand adequate explanations, by objective factors of shape accordance and others, select the better means of redistricting methods, and afterward put into concern of historical voting behavior, conduct a further evaluation and analysis upon chosen redistricting method. In actual practices we had selected Tainan City as the experiment target, under different population limitations and factors of form, compare the searchable numbers of decent explanation respectively. We choose some redistricting outcomes, and put into comparison with redistricting method of the CEM. The results indicated our approach is able to conduct a thorough redistricting analysis, as well as more diversified comparing to CEM's outcome. The result of this experiment also reveals different election outcome with adoption of different redistricting methods.

傳統商學院論文所探討的競爭態勢多半聚焦於廠商間的競爭，著重組織對組織、集團對集團的互動過程，本研究提出競爭的另一種型態，描述由個體所組成的非正規群體(駭客)與組織集團(廠商)的競爭，以病毒與防毒軟體廠商的互動過程為例，透過歷史的描述呈現電腦病毒、防毒廠商、戰爭三個構面。 本研究以病毒為描述主體作為邪惡的反方角色，並且深入探討其背後的核心操控者：駭客們的動機與行為，之後將相對應的正方角色：防毒公司拉進來，詮釋病毒與防毒軟體的互動過程。最後，整理出在歷史的演進之下，病毒/防毒戰爭過程中的脈絡與攻防特性，並演譯歸納出病毒的五大創新特點：技術Deeper、影響範圍Bigger、傳播速度Faster、病毒行為Smarter、產業結構Robuster。 綜觀國內外商學院論文，尚無類似論述，其突破性貢獻有三：其一，本研究提出以病毒負效用的特性作為創新的論述，至今無人提出，雖可議卻也空前；其二，本研究突破過去討論病毒相關議題僅考量單項變數的限制，以全面性的系統觀點探討其特性；其三，此類議題的相關論文處理方式多半以量化、實作亦或次級資料整理為主，本研究則進行深入訪談的田野調查。 基於創新來自於邊陲的概念，本論文希望排除道德的限制，單純從特性上加以考量其創新，並非鼓勵或褒揚之意。希望提供企業以另一個層次的角度思考本文所提出之創新觀點，應用於研發管理、創新管理、行銷管理、策略管理等領域，興許能有不同的創新解決方案。 / Most papers from the traditional business school discuss the competitions among manufacturers, and focus on the interactions between organizations and between groups. However, in this paper, we propose another type of competition - the competition between the hacker (composed by the individuals or non-regular organization) and the manufacturer (organizations or groups). Here, we take the interaction between virus and anti-virus software manufacturers as example to describe the 3 dimensions among computer virus, anti-virus software manufactures and their contests. In this thesis, we take virus as the evil side and expect to dig out the motivation and behavior of the hackers, and then we take the anti-virus software manufactures as the counter side to discuss the interaction between virus and anti-virus software. Finally, we sum up the 5 innovative characteristics of the virus: the skill is deeper, the incidence is bigger, the spreading speed is faster, the virus behavior is smarter and the industrial structure is more robust. In this thesis, there are 3 unprecedented distributions: first, we propose the innovative concept by using the disutility characteristic of virus; second, we breakthrough the restriction that only taking the single parameter into consideration, and we take the total system viewpoints into consideration to discuss its characteristics; third, instead of quantification, experimentation, and sub-data collection, we do the research through the interview and the field work. In this thesis, we wish to eliminate morals constraints, just consider its innovative concept, and not mean to encourage or commend it. Furthermore, we expect to provide the enterprises another way to think about this new concept, and apply it in research and development management, innovation management, marketing management, strategy management, and so on. We believe that there will be some other different innovative solutions.

近年來由於醫療技術之進步再加上物價不斷調漲的影響，使得老年人在退休時需要更多的財富來因應及保障基本的生活支出，故退休規劃對於老年人而言是個不可不重視的議題，且年金保險的設計就是在保障老年人的經濟生活不虞匱乏的一種方式，故本文主要採取之策略為自我資產配置一段期間後再將所有的財富轉換成年金。本篇使用靜態及半動態式的資產配置並配合退休者的風險容忍程度，找出退休者在退休後最適的投資策略及最適購買年金保險的時點。本文中，風險控制之設定乃是採用尾端條件期望值(CTE)的概念，且會設定兩種不同的目標函數，一個為有考慮遺產動機之函數，另一個則無考慮，最後再找出各個之結果。最後，本文也有考慮兩個比較符合實務的例子。第一，當保險公司銷售年金商品時加入附加費用率，對於退休者最適年金化年齡之影響。第二，實務上，一般退休者對於自我資金上的運用可能會拆成兩部分，一部分之資產用於購買年金保險，剩下另一部分為自我做資產配置，最後再比較此策略與全部自我資產配置再年金化策略之結果。

綜觀現今全球化的趨勢，世界各國皆進行跨語言的專利文書翻譯工作。在專利文書翻譯及跨語言檢索方面，蒐集大量且正確的專利文書平行語料能夠協助相關研究的進行。利用人工進行平行語料文句的對列工作相當費時，因此，本研究利用斷句、斷詞及英文詞幹還原等前處理技術，搭配中英技術名詞對應表，透過統計詞頻調整對應詞組的權重，並以句子間的餘弦相似度作為輔助，計算中英文句子間的相似度，最後利用動態規劃演算法挑選最佳的對列組合，發展出一套中英文句對列的系統。以精確率及召回率評比對列成效，並將對列後產生的句對作為輔助式機器翻譯系統詞序調動的訓練語料，以2003年國際數學語科學教育成就趨勢調查測驗試題作為翻譯對象，採用BLEU及NIST的評比方式進行評估。實驗結果顯示本系統不僅在1：1對列模式的精確率達到0.995，且利用門檻值篩選出的大量中英文句對，確實能夠提升輔助式機器翻譯系統的翻譯品質。 / The importance of cross-language translation of patent documents has grown substantially as a result of globalization. Accurately aligned parallel corpora help researchers conduct their research projects that depend on bilingual data to develop techniques such as computer-aided translation and cross-language information retrieval. It takes time to collect parallel data manually; therefore, an English-Chinese sentence alignment system was built that will automatically complete this process. A variety of preprocessing techniques for natural language processing were used, such as the stemming of the English words, to build this system. Two parts of scores were considered to align sentences. The first part considered the number and weight of aligned word pairs in the Chinese and English sentences. The second part came from a special way to compute the cosine value of the Chinese and English sentence pairs. Precision and recall rates were used to evaluate the quality of the aligned results and the 1:1 alignment achieved 0.995 precision. In addition, the aligned sentences were used as training data in a machine translation for the TIMSS test items, experimental results show that the aligned sentences are helpful for the translation system.

本論文主要是以實質選擇權分析法對在最適決策下供應鏈及公司的價值進行評價。內容包含兩篇文章。第一章為緒論；第二章與第三章為主文。在此兩章中 ，我們會先介紹研究動機、目的與文獻探討，接著架構模型，據以求出於最適決策下供應鏈或公司價值的封閉解後，以比較靜態分析法分析各參數對供應鏈或公司價值的影響。第四章為總結。 / 第一篇文章為對在隨機成本下供應鏈的評價。該模型是以單一供應商、單一零售商與多個消費者組成之垂直整合的二階段序列式動態供應鏈為架構，假設市場的現貨價格為動態過程，供應商和零售商每單位商品的成本為隨現貨價格變動的隨機成本。在此模型中，供應鏈的經營者以銷售量為決策，聯合利潤最大化為目標。此外，存貨設定在零售商的一方，而零售商所持有的存貨可視為擁有一個無窮期的美式買權，當存貨出清時，如同執行一個美式買權一般，以促使利潤的實現。接著我們利用比較靜態分析法就無風險利率和現貨價格報酬率的波動度對於最適決策下所求得的供應鏈價值之影響進行分析後，得到供應鏈價值會隨著無風險利率的上升而增加，亦會隨著現貨價格報酬率波動度的提高而增加。此結論和Cortazar and Schwartz(1993)以兩階段製造產品為運作模式之公司價值就無風險利率和現貨價格報酬率的波動度進行比較靜態分析後所得到的結果一致。 / 第二篇文章為對在隨機匯率下兩階段生產之公司進行評價。此文考慮Cortazar and Schwartz(1993)的模型，在產品之製造為兩階段式生產的條件下，納入隨機匯率，用實質選擇權分析法，評價以外銷專案為標的之公司價值。我們針對模型中的參數：本國的無風險利率、以外幣計價之現貨價格報酬率波動度及匯率波動度的變化對公司價值的影響進行分析後，而得到這些參數與公司價值呈現正相關的結果。此外，因動態現貨價格與隨機匯率的相關性 ，我們亦分析現貨價格和匯率的相關係數對公司價值之影響後，得到兩者正相關程度越大或是負相關程度越小時，公司價值就越大，從而體認到僅從匯率走勢的升值或貶值來判斷外銷專案價值有利與否是不夠詳盡的，還要考慮現貨價格和匯率交互影響的程度，決策者才能做出有利於外銷專案更好的決定。 / 最後，我們將此兩篇文章歸納出一些重要的結論後，接著針對本論文研究主題的未來發展方向，提出一些觀點和建議，以作一個總結。 / This text uses a real options approach to price the value of the supply chain or the company. It contains two articles . Chapter 1 is the introduction; Chapter 2 and Chapter 3 are the main text.In these chapters, we introduce the study motive and literature review, the model, the closed form of the supply chain or the company in the optimal operating policy, and then use comparative statics method to analyze the effect of some parameters that risk-free interest rate, volatility of the spot price, volatility of the exchange rate etc. Finally, we give a summary. / The first article is in Chapter 2. It is to price the optimal value of the two echelon sequential dynamic supply chain which is composed of one supplier, one retailer and many consumers. In this model, we assume that the spot price of goods is a dynamic process, the costs of the per unit goods of supplier and retailer are up to the change of the spot price, the sales volume is the decision strategy, and their aim is to maximize joint profits. In this supply chain, the value of the stocks for retailer can be regarded as a perpetual American call option. Finally, we will use comparative static to examine the effect of the volatility of the spot price and risk free rate for the optimal value of the supply chain, and we obtain the same results as Cortazar and Schwartz’s (1993) optimal value of two-stage companies. / The second article is in Chapter 3. Based on the extended the Cortazar and Schwartz (1993) model, we use the Real Options Approach to price the closed form of the value of the two-stage production for a company under stochastic exchange rate. With regard to the parameters in the model: domestic risk-free interest rate, the volatility of the foreign spot price, and the volatility of the exchange rate, we find that the domestic risk-free interest rate, volatility of the foreign spot price, and the volatility of exchange rate have positive correlated with the optimal value of the company. Moreover, due to the correlated relation between the dynamic foreign spot price and the stochastic exchange rate, we analyze the change of the coefficient of correlation between the foreign spot price and the exchange rate, and obtained the more large optimal value of the company when they are more large positive correlated or negative correlated. In other word, we need to consider the influence between the foreign spot rate and the exchange rate at the same time, and then the manager can make the optimal decision about the exporting project. / Finally, we summed up some important conclusions of Chapter 2 and Chapter 3, and then proposed some views and suggestions for the study the theme and the developing direction in the future.

本研究著重於分析發行大量長年期利率敏感型契約、高財務槓桿比例的人壽保險業中公司經理人之投資決策，發現台灣壽險業亦存在Canner et al.(1997)提出之資產配置迷思，亦即風險性資產中債券與股票之比率於不同壽險公司間有差異，與共同基金分離理論中陳述之風險態度不同之投資人所持有之債券與股票比率應相同不相符。本文嘗試以Sorensen(1999)提出之擬似動態規劃法(Quasi- dynamic Programming)最適化到期之效用函數，試算經理人於股票及不同到期固定收益債券之最適持有比例。且詳細探討不同風險偏好及投資期限對於壽險公司投資組合之影響。將業主權益之最適投資策略加上負債之複製投資組合成為策略性資產配置結果，並將其與目前台灣壽險公司之資產配置做比較。研究結果顯示： 1.以擬似動態規畫法求得之最適投資組合於不同風險態度下皆為長期債券以及股票。當經理人之風險趨避程度增加時，投資於股票之比例會減少、投資於債券之比例會增加。 2.比較台灣壽險公司之債券與股票配置比例與本研究之結果發現，本資公司之風險態度較外資公司積極，本資公司應提高其債券之持有比例。 本研究最後以Bajeux-Besnainou et al. (2001)提出之資產配置迷思解釋說明本資公司與外資公司持有之債券與股票比率之所以不同非因資產配置迷思之存在，本資公司與外資公司於風險性資產中持有之債券與股票比率是相同的，但因風險態度較為趨避之公司，投資於風險性資產比率下降、提高避險部位之配置，導致整體之股票與債券比率增加。 關鍵字：資產負債管理、策略性資產配置、擬似動態規劃法。

近年來，中國的經濟表現受眾人稱羨之餘，實質固定匯率政策卻為人所詬病。然而，中國人民銀行於 2005 年 7 月 21 日公告一套以市場供需為基準的管理浮動匯率制度後，人民幣遂開始逐步升值並連帶地牽動亞洲其他國家幣值變化。為瞭解人民幣變動對亞洲四小龍國家幣值的外溢效果，本文利用動態條件相關係數模型，透過人民幣和亞洲四小龍貨幣的無本金交割遠期外匯分析相關係數。最後發現，人民幣和四小龍貨幣間存在不同程度的正相關，且此動態相關性自 2008 年起日與俱增。