資產配置乃是將資金分散投資到主要的資產類別中，諸如股票、債券、現金等。傳統的均數/變異數方法在資產配置上早已被廣泛的運用。但是，現今的金融情勢多變，多期配置的需求提高，傳統均數/變異數方法只處理單一期間的資產配置，且反應未來的能力不佳，顯然已經不適用。 本論文提供一種多期動態的資產配置，可以改良過去單點估計值的缺點，同時能夠將未來情境納入考量，使多期資產配置更富策略性。並實證在兩期的情況下，期中調整資產組合與不調整的差異性。從而瞭解持續的動態規劃，方能提升資產配置的效率性。 / Asset allocation is the process of dividing an investment fund among major asset classes such as equities, bonds, cash, etc. Traditional mean-variance portfolio selection is widely used for asset allocation. However, as time goes by, the financial condition changes rapidly. The method of mean-variance analysis has some limitations. It not only can’t deal with multiperiod asset allocation, but also cannot reflect future economic circumstances, especially for long-term investments. This research tries to use the method of multi-stage dynamic programming for asset allocation. This method can improve the pits of single estimate in using mean-variance analysis, and take future scenarios into account so that the model will become more useful in practice. The two-period empirical results have shown that using continuous dynamic programming to build strategic asset allocation decision can improve the efficiency of asset allocation.

本論文是二篇探討與股票價格平均數復歸現象有關的實證文章。在第一篇文章中，我們將探討由於廠商特質所產生資金供需雙方訊息的非對稱，而引發的流動性限制對廠商股票價格行為的潛在影響；在第二篇文章中，我們研究的課題是在漲跌幅限制下，交易量與股票報酬自我相關的關係。 第一篇文章主要在探討由於廠商特質所產生資金供需雙方訊息的非對稱，而引發的流動性限制對廠商股票價格行為的影響。我們利用五個廠商特質－所有權結構、集團企業成員、上市時間、公司規模與現金股利的發放，定義面臨流動性限制的廠商，並使用變異數比率衡量股票價格平均數復歸的現象，由於小樣本的問題，我們將利用拔靴法檢定假說：廠商的流動性限制會強化其股票價格平均數復歸的行為。我們的實證結果並不一致，所有權結構、公司規模和集團企業成員的分組實證結果支持我們的假說，流動性限制會強化平均數復歸的行為；而上市時間與現金股利發放的分組實證結果並不支持我們的假說。 在第二篇文章中，我們使用與Campbell et. al. (1993)相同的實證模型，討論在漲跌幅限制下，交易量與股票日報酬自我相關的關係。由於漲跌幅限制的存在，當股票價格觸及漲跌幅上下限時，即停止交易，而使得真正的股票價格無法觀察到，因而未實現之需求或供給將會傳遞至下一個交易日，將使傳統OLS或其衍生方法的估計產生偏誤，而使用Chou和Chib (1995)與Chou (1995)所提的Gibbs抽樣法則可以成功地克服這些困難。所以，本文將應用Chou和Chib (1995)與Chou (1995)的Gibbs抽樣法來衡量台灣股票市場交易量對股票日報酬自我相關係數的影響，以避免漲跌幅限制的影響。本文採用台灣證交所編製的綜合股價指數所採樣的二十四家公司為樣本，利用日資料進行實證分析，實證結果支持「交易量效果」的存在。且在實證過程中，發現台灣股票市場股票日報酬的正自我相關有可能是漲跌幅限制的存在而造成的。

在線性迴歸分析中，資料的不適當，常導致研究者選擇了不當的模式，為避免此缺失，在分析資料前須先做好診斷工作。本文中將從貝氏觀點提出一些不同的診斷方法以供參考。首先推導出均數移動參數a=(a₁,…,a_k)'的事後分配，並利用a'a/k的事後均數診斷出不當資料點。接著，考慮在個別模式下以β事後分配之總變異及廣義變異為標準，診斷出離群值及具有潛在影響力之觀測值。最後，分別利用(i)β的事後分配(ii)σ²的事後分配(iii)(β,σ²)的聯合事後分配，推導出對應的對稱均方差以做為診斷標準。 / In this thesis, some different diagnostic methodologies for outliers and influential observations from Bayesian point of view are proposed. We firstly derive the marginal posterior distribution of the mean-shift parameter a=(a₁,a_k)¹, then use the posterior mean of a¹a/k to detect the spurious data items. Secondly, we use the posterior total variance and generalized variance of β as diagnostic criterions for outliers and influential observations. Finally, we utilize (i) the posterior distribution of β, (ii) the posterior distribution of σ², and (iii) the joint posterior distribution of β, σ² to find their corresponding symmetric mean square differences , which can be used as diagnostic criterions.

第一章 台灣與美國股市價量關係的分量迴歸分析 摘要 本文利用分量迴歸來觀察台灣和美國股市報酬率和成交量的價量關係。實證結果發現兩地股市的價量關係截然不同。台灣股市的報酬率與成交量之間具有正向關係，呈現「價量齊揚」和「價跌量縮」的現象，而前者效果通常較顯著；但報酬率接近最大漲幅限制時，報酬率與成交量之間並無顯著關係，報酬率接近最大跌幅限制時，「價跌量縮」的現象甚至更強。相對於台灣，美國股市的報酬率與成交量則出現「價量齊揚」與「價量背離」互相對稱的 “V” 字關係。就實證方法而言，傳統以 OLS 方法估計的迴歸模型並無法得到上述的實證結果。進一步的分析顯示，融券成數的高低以及平盤以下不得放空等規定都是造成台灣股市出現「價跌量縮」的可能原因。 第二章 股市價量關係的分量迴歸分析 (二) 摘要 本章利用分量迴歸觀察包括台灣在內的亞洲新興工業國家與成熟股市的價量關係。實證結果顯示，亞洲新興工業國家和日本股市「價量齊揚」的效果較強，其中香港、南韓和新加坡呈現較弱的「價量背離」現象，因此價量之間有不對稱的 “V” 字關係；而日本股市則呈現「價跌量縮」，與第一章分析的台灣股市價量關係相似。在成熟股市的價量關係中，英國金融時報指數、美國道瓊工業指數和德國股價指數皆呈現對稱的 “V” 字關係，與美國US指數的價量關係相似。亞洲地區的國家在1997下半年到1998上半年普遍經歷了一場金融風暴，本文進一步的分析發現在這場風暴期間，亞洲地區除了台灣以外，日本、香港、南韓與新加坡都出現較強的「價量齊揚」與「價量背離」，這種現象可能肇因於投資人認為風暴期間的股價報酬率風險較高，遂使得股價報酬率對成交量的反應較為敏銳。相對而言，歐美地區的國家，受到亞洲金融風暴的影響較小，所以整體的價量關係在亞洲金融風暴期間並無重大改變。本章的結果都是透過分量迴歸所獲得。 第三章 股市價量因果關係的分量迴歸分析 摘要 本文依據分量迴歸設計 Granger 因果關係的新檢驗方法，並依此方法來檢驗幾個股市價量之間的因果關係。本文分析的股市包括日本、英國與美國等世界前三大股市，以及合稱亞洲四小龍的台灣、香港、南韓與新加坡等新興工業國家或地區的股市。實證結果顯示：除了台灣股市以外，其他的股市皆呈現 “V” 字的跨期價量關係。其中英國、美國、香港和新加坡股市的跨期價量關係大體呈現正向「價量齊揚」與負向「價量背離」互相對稱的 “V” 字關係，而日本和南韓股市則是「價量齊揚」較強的不對稱 “V” 字關係。此一結果表示這些股市的價量之間都存在分配上的 Granger (1969) 因果關係。但若以均數迴歸來衡量跨期價量關係，則所有股市都呈現不顯著的跨期價量關係，也就是傳統文獻上所謂價量之間沒有 Granger 因果關係。本文所提出的 Granger 因果關係之分量迴歸分析，可以觀察到整個條件分配中各分量的因果關係，為分配上的 Granger 因果關係提供一個較完整的檢驗方法。 / We examine the relationship between the stock return and trading volume in the Taiwan and U.S. Stock Exchanges using quantile regression. The empirical results show that the return-volume relations in these two exchanges are quite different. For Taiwan data, there are significant positive return-volume relations across quantiles, showing that a large positive return is usually accompanied with a large trading volume and a large negative return with a small trading volume, yet the effect of former is stronger. However, such relations change when returns approach the price limits. We also find that for U.S. data, return-volume relations exhibit symmetric V-shapes across quantiles, showing that a large return (in either sign) is usually accompanied with a large trading volume. On the other hand, linear regressions estimated by the ordinary least square method are unable to reveal such patterns. Further investigation shows that various restrictions on short sales in the Taiwan Stock Exchange may explain the difference between the return-volume relations in Taiwan and U.S. data.

本研究的主要目的是以美國全人醫治協會（American Holistic Medical Association，AHMA），提出的全人醫治取向（AHMA, 2005），發展出一份新取向的憂鬱量表，同時探討憂鬱症的相關因素。針對憂鬱症而言，全人的醫治方式需要檢視情緒、人際關係、身體和心靈等各個層面。因此，本研究所發展的自編憂鬱量表依全人醫治取向將其為分為認知取向、情緒取向、身體取向與人際取向等四個因素。 本研究量表的計分方式採用李克特式四點量表形式。原始量表共37題，依據文獻與醫院觀察所得資料編製而成。原始量表以專家效度作為刪題依據，刪題後的正式量表為22題。其計分方式，答「總是如此」得3分，「經常如此」2分，「偶爾如此」1分，「很少如此或沒有」0分。樣本分為實驗組（憂鬱症者）與效標組（非憂鬱症者），實驗組是以精神科醫師診斷為憂鬱症者共213人作為量表的填答對象，效標組是隨機抽取政大學生200人作為施測樣本，並以CES-D憂鬱量表作為效標。施測所得資料以SPSS進行描述統計、t考驗、效標關聯效度、分量表與總分之相關、區別分析、內部一致性信度的考驗；並以結構方程式模式（SEM）針對驗證性因素分析、多群組共變數結構與多群組潛在平均數結構進行考驗。 本研究的結論下： 一、本研究結果，憂鬱症好發年齡與國外25-44歲研究相符，與國內20-40歲研究結果相同。依據文獻所示，女性罹患憂鬱症的比例，為男性的2倍，本研究結果顯示與國內外研究結果是一致性。 二、各分量表與總分之間的相關從.836到.903皆為非常良好的係數值，表示本研究自編憂鬱量表具有良好的內部一致性。 三、本研究之效標關聯效度達0.939，雙尾檢定，達.01顯著水準，表示本研究所編製的量表，可測得所欲測得的特質。 四、本研究的自編量表整體內部一致性Cronbach's Alpha係數為.965，其他如刪除各單題後的總量表、校正後單題與總量表之相關、校正後單題與分量表之相關都顯示本研究自編憂鬱量表有良好的信度。 五、驗證性因素分析模式是合理適配的，表示當初四個向度假設是成立，而且這四個因素背後有一個潛在因素－「憂鬱症」存在。 六、實驗組與效標組在共變數結構上的考驗是沒有差異的，表示此自編憂鬱量表可以同時適用在實驗組與效標組。 七、分量表或總量表從t考驗值差異皆達.001顯著水準，另外區別分析Hit Ratio值為0.93，表示本研究自編之憂鬱量表具有良好之區別效度，可以有效地區別出實驗組與效標組。而在多群組潛在平均數結構上的考驗，效標組在自編憂鬱量表四個向度上的潛在平均數低於實驗組，表示本量表從潛在變項的考驗也可以有效地區辨實驗組與效標組。 / The main purpose of this study is to develop a depression scale in a new approach that reflects the whole-person approach to healing proposed by the AHMA (the American Holistic Medical Association) in the United States (AHMA, 2005), while at the same time probing into the relevant factors of depression disorders. Regarding depression disorders, a whole-person approach to healing requires the examination of multiple dimensions of the person, such as mood, interpersonal relationships, body, soul, etc. So, this study of the development of a self-establishment depression scale is divided into four dimensions: cognitive, mood, physical, and interpersonal, in accordance with the whole-person approach. The scale of this study adopts a four-item Likter scale to measure scores. The basic scale amounts to 37 items and works out according to the literature and the observing materials in hospitals. Items of the basic scale are deleted with expert validity. It is a 22- items formal scale after deleting items. Answer choices read and rate as follows: “always true” (3), “often true” (2), “true once in a while” (1), “seldom or not true” (0). Samples are separated into the experimental group (depressed person) and the criterion group (non-depressed person). In the experimental group, psychiatrists diagnosed 213 people for depressed person as the measuring target filling of the self-establishment depression scale. The criterion group consisted of 200 National Chengchi University students. CES-D was used as a criterion t. We used the program of SPSS to compute descriptive statistics, t-test, criterion-related validity, correlation of the sub-scales and the scale, discriminant, reliability of internal consistency with SPSS, and the estimations of confirmatory factory analysis, multi-sample covariance structure, multi-sample-latent-means structure with structural equation modeling (SEM). In sum, some conclusions of this research are as follows: 1. The result of this study show that depression disorder peaks during the ages of twenty-five to forty-four, consistent with in foreign and domestic research. As literature, depression disorder occurs in at double the rate in women as in men, and the result of this study is consistent with domestic and foreign studies. 2. The correlative coefficient of the sub-scales and the scale from .836 to.903 shows all as having very good coefficient value and that it has good internal consistency of the self-establishment depression scale. 3. The criterion-related validity of this research is up to 0.939, 2-tailed test reaches .01 level of significance which shows the self-establishment depression scale can examine the attributes which we want to find out. 4. The whole internal consistency Cronbach's Alpha coefficient of the self-establishment depression scale is .965, others like Cronbach's Alpha if item deleted, corrected item-total correlations single item with sub-scales and corrected item-total correlations single item with the scale all show good reliability. 5.The model confirmatory factory analysis is reasonably fit that shows four dimensions established supposing originally, and behind the back of four factors there is one latent variable – “depressive disorder” exists. 6.The estimation of covariance structure between the experimental group and the criterion group shows no difference that reveals the self-establishment depression scale can be suitable for the experimental group and the criterion group . 7.The sub-scale and the scale of the self-establishment depression scale from t-test reaches .01 level of significance, another time hit ratio value of discriminant is 0.93, both show that the self-establishment depression scale by this study can distinguish the experimental group and the criterion group efficiently. And at the estimation of multi-sample-latent-means structure shows the criterion group’s latent mean is lower than the experimental group’s, that means this scale can distinguish the experimental group and the criterion group usefully at the same time.

傳統人壽保險契約之分析利用等價原則(principal of equivalience) 來對商品評價。即保險人所收保費之現值等於保險人未來責任(保險金額給付)之現值。然而對於權益連結壽險商品而言，其結合傳統商品之風險(如利率風險、死亡率風險等)與財務風險，故更增加其評價困難性。過去研究中在假設預定利率為常數與死亡率為給定的情況下，利用Black-Scholes (1973)評價公式推導出公式解。然而Black-Scholes評價公式是建構在完全市場上，對於權益連結壽險商品而言其已不符合完全市場之假設，因此本文放寬完全市場之假設來對此商品重新評價與避險。 在財務市場上，對於不完全市場(incomplete markets)下請求權(contingent claims)之評價與避險，已發展出數個不同評價方法。本文利用均數變異避險(mean-variance hedging)方法(Follmer&Sondermann ，1986)所衍生之風險極小化(risk-minimization)觀念來對此保險衍生性金融商品評價與避險，並找到一風險衡量測度(Moller , 1996、1998a、2000)來評估發行此商品保險人需承受多少風險。 / In this study, actuarial equivalent principle and no-arbitrage pricing theory are used in pricing and valuation for unit-linked life insurance policies.　Since their market values cannot be replicated through the self-finance strategies due to market incompleteness, the theoretical setup in Black and Scholes (1973) and Follmer and Sondermann (1986) are adopted to develop the pricing and hedging strategies. Counting process is employed to characterize the transition pattern of the policyholder and the linked assets are modeled through the geometric Brownian motions. Equivalent martingale measures are adapted to derive the pricing formulas. Since the benefit payments depend on the performance of the underlying portfolios and the health status of the policyholder, mean-variance minimization criterion is employed to evaluate the financial risk. Finally pricing and hedging issues are examined through the numerical illustrations. Monte Carlo method is implemented to approximate the market premiums according to the payoff structures of the policies. In this paper, we show that the risk-minimization criterion can be used to determine the hedging strategies and access the minimal intrinsic risks for the insurers.

本研究以台灣證券交易所編製之修正股價平均數為研究對象，衡量股價平均數之理論隱含價值，並加以預測。文中假設股票市價與真實價值間靜態均衡無法成立，改以連續收斂型態的動態調整過程，才能對於此種現象加以描述，並假設股價平均數之市價與模型評估值為共整合關係，利用V/P比率來預測股價平均數報酬率，且將投資大眾經常使用之變數（例如E/P、B/P、利率等等）加以比較，所得出之結論如下： (1) V/P比率一階自我相關係數較低，顯示V/P偏離平均值時，較其他比率返回平均數速度快，較能反映市場的走勢與變動。 (2) 短期下並無任一財務比率可以對於股價平均數走勢加以預測，但長期下（未來一年之後），V/P 比率具有相當顯著的預測能力。 (3) 將E/P與B/P納入迴歸式，V/P 比率在未來一至八季期間，仍具有顯著預測能力，可見V/P比率即使與E/P或B/P比率有某種程度的相關，並不影響到V/P 比率的預測能力。 (4) 將總體經濟變數納入迴歸式中，V/P 比率預測能力在短期中會受到些許影響，但經過一年之後，V/P 比率仍然具有相當顯著的預測能力。 (5) 若以過去公司每股盈餘、淨值、股東權益報酬率等財務相關歷史資料，作為未來公司盈餘收益以及成長的預測，會使得V/P 比率受到影響（在短期時預測能力大為降低），但就長期而言（未來第五季之後），此項指標仍然具有預測能力，對於股價平均數水準之評估，仍有一定程度的參考作用。 (6) 分別選取15%、13%、11%、9%及7%等固定折現率，依序求出修正股價平均數的V/P比率，檢定結果與隨時間變動折現率所計算之比率數值相比較，並沒有產生相當明顯的變化。雖然V/P比率的預測能力隨著折現率的下降而減弱，但其變化的趨勢並無絕對穩定的關係，對於「長期下」的預測能力，並不會產生極大的影響。 綜合以上結論，本研究發現：利用Ohlson（1990）剩餘所得模型（residual income model）來估算台灣證券交易所編製之修正股價平均數水準，較易以一般市場上獲取的會計資訊來加以衡量，也較能反映股市基本面價值。即使短期內V/P比率預測能力並不十分明顯，但長期下（一年後）採用V/P比率此項指標，仍能預測未來股價平均數之走勢，且與其他變數比較而言，此預測能力呈現一較穩定之關係。由於國內相關研究甚少直接對股市股價指數做直接的衡量與評估，因此，實務上可以將此估算方法作為一種參考指標，並以此分析未來股價指數水準在長期下之走勢與變動。 第一章 緒論 1 第一節 研究背景 1 第二節 研究動機與目的 2 第三節 研究架構 5 第四節 研究流程 6 第二章 文獻探討 7 第一節 國外部分 7 第二節 國內部分 10 第三章 研究方法與設計 13 第一節 研究設計 13 第二節 剩餘所得模型 15 第三節 資料收集與整理 18 第四節 研究方法與實證模式 25 第四章 實證結果與分析 30 第一節 修正股價平均數之檢視 30 第二節 基本面比率對於股價平均數報酬率之預測 32 第三節 V/P衡量方法之優劣比較 36 第五章 結論與建議 50 第一節 研究結論 50 第二節 研究限制與建議 52 參考文獻 54 英文部分 54 中文部分 56

本文之信用風險模型屬於簡約模型(Reduced Form Model)之範疇，以COX過程解釋違約過程，解釋為何企業會發生連帶倒閉的現象。在考慮信用風險後，各期所產生之現金流量變得具不確定性，因此在計算現金流量之現值時，折現因子就必須考慮信用風險溢酬，本文選用信用風險模型中的一大分支-約簡模型，將信用風險量化(包含系統風險及非系統風險)，進而估計出信用價差期間結構；就如同無風險利率期間結構對固定收益商品之重要性，在估計出公司之信用價差期間結構後，即可針對該公司發行之各種商品進行評價分析。本文並以花旗所羅門美邦控股公司為例進行實證，利用公司債理論價格與市價之誤差平方和，求解違約過程之參數估計值及信用價差期間結構；接著，針對花旗所羅門美邦控股公司所發行之連動債券〝TRAGETS〞，進行評價分析並比較考慮信用風險與否是否有助於理論價格與市價之配適。

思及當前捉襟見肘的財政窘境，無可避免地，債台高築的臺灣實陷入飲鴆止渴般以債養債之無限迴圈中，導致政府政策效能不彰、社會福利運作生弊亦無可厚非；於『公共債務法』之財政規範下，臺灣業已瀕臨法定舉債門檻，故不論是對短期政府支出之排擠、扭曲性稅率之稽徵抑或對長期經濟成長的斲傷，皆是身為中華民國國民真正惶悚不安之所在。 職是之故，本研究係採用一納入政府財政部門及貨幣當局之擴充『實質景氣循環模型』，藉以Sidrauski（1967）所提出的貨幣效用函數為出發點，將實質餘額引進理論模型，並透過計量操作捕捉實證期間起於西元1971年第一季迄至2007年第四季之政府政策函數，過程中，我們不難發現政府購買性支出及稅率皆存在相當的持續性，且對政府未償公債餘額之高低作出某種程度的反應。亦即，若政府實施公債融通政策，俾使期初公債餘額較高之際，則本期甚或往後各期的政府支出將遭受抑制和排擠，尤有甚者，政府勢必擬以提高未來稅率以茲挹注該債務之還本付息所造成的財政缺口；是以，本研究著眼於引進公債餘額對政府支出及稅率存在反饋作用下，財政政策與貨幣政策之總體效果及各總體變數之動態調整過程的風貌。即便公債發行或賒借為政府提供一財務週轉工具以裨益財政政策保有更靈活之彈性，然據模型所產生的結果顯示，就長期而論，政府必須維持一穩定之未償公債餘額，即公債水準具備『均數復歸』性質，而該財政目標係透過削減未來政府支出、調整扭曲性稅率及鑄幣稅融通政策方得以達成預算平衡，準此，該設定將造成公債融通之減稅政策對經濟體系具有實質效果，『公債融通』管道亦『非中立性政策』，從而傳統『李嘉圖等值定理』於本模型中無法成立。 就政策面層次而言，本研究試圖放寬『反饋法則』與政策係數之設定，以檢視透過不同程度之政府支出、稅率甚至貨幣供給途徑的改變來平衡因增加公債發行所造成的財政赤字，對經濟體系之長短期效果有何迥異處；是文亦藉由衝擊反應函數分別探討於政府支出增加、減稅措施及貨幣擴張之下，政策的傳遞機制與各總體變數之動態性質，顯然地，就高債務比率前提下，當政府戮力於刺激景氣而欲積極實施立竿見影的總體經濟政策之際，卻常因狃於急效而欲速不達，非但政策效果有限，亦可能使體系落入更為不景氣的田地，從而，財政惡化不啻為經濟危機的導火線也就不言而喻。再者，貨幣政策對體系之實質變數具有一定程度的作用，是故，本模型於短期內無法一窺『貨幣中立性』之堂奧，唯長期始得以復見。總括言之，政府亟須奉『健全財政』為圭臬，擬定政策時更得戒慎恐懼，並適切權衡利弊得失，以茲裨益有更具信心的經濟表現。 此外，本研究亦透過『效準』實驗以評估模型『配適度』之良窳，即便於反覆疊代法下，該模擬表現係瑕瑜互見而不盡完美，卻也大抵符合景氣循環之『典型化特徵』；然就實質景氣循環模型所為人詬病之勞動市場一隅而論，引進公債之反饋法則下的財政政策操作，無疑地改善了傳統工時與工資率動輒高度正相關之本質，從而獲致相對較低之理論相關係數，亦朝實證資料所呈現工時與工資率存在幾近零相關甚或低度負相關之表徵更邁進一大步。 / With current financial difficulties beyond government capability, it is inevitable that the already deep-in-debt Taiwan opted for momentary relief by paying debt through debt financing and ended up in an infinite loop, causing spiral-down performances in government policies and faulty operations of social welfare instruments. Taiwan has been on the verge of reaching the statutory upper limit of debt financing according to “The Public Debt Act” regulations and all nationals are becoming anxious about such impacts as crowding out of short-run government spending, levying of distorting taxes, and damages on long-run economic growth. To better understand the debt’s impacts, this research uses the “Real Business Cycle Model” extended by taking government treasury agency and monetary institution into account. Starting with Money In Utility Function (MIUF) as proposed by Sidrauski (1967) to introduce real money balance into the theoretical model and, in the process of econometric manipulation, to detect empirical governmental policy functions in the period between the first quarter, 1971 and the fourth quarter, 2007, it is not hard to discover that there are considerable persistence in both government purchases and tax rates, with manifestation of certain degree of responses to the total amount of outstanding bonds the government has yet to pay. In other words, a governmental bond financing policy designed to render high initial bonds outstanding tends to cause suppression and crowding out of government spending in current and even later periods. Furthermore, the government is bound to plan on raising taxes in the future in order to cut financial deficit gap caused by paying back the principles and interests of the debt. Therefore, this study focuses on presenting the macroeconomic effects of fiscal policies and monetary policies, as well as the dynamic adjustment processes of macroeconomic variables based on the impact of feedback effect of bonds outstanding on government spending and tax rates. Even thought public bonds issuance or debt financing serves as a governmental fiscal instrument for financial turnover to ensure flexibility of fiscal policies, our model shows that the government should, from a long-run perspective, maintain a stable amount of bonds outstanding. Put in a different way, the level of bonds outstanding shows “mean-reverting” characteristics which rely on future government spending cut, distorting tax adjustment and seigniorage financing policy to achieve balance of budget. As a result, such setup would cause the bond-financing backed tax deduction policies to create practical effects on economies and, as the bond financing instruments are “Non-Neutrality” policies, would render the “Ricardian Equivalence Theorem” invalid in our model. In the policy aspect, this study tries to relax both “feedback rules” and setup of policy parameters for investigating the differences between long-run and short-run effects on the economy by different degrees of changes in government spending, tax rates and even money supply channels which are used to balance the fiscal deficit caused by increased bond issuance. This article also studies, through the impulse response function, the policy propagation mechanism and the dynamics of key macroeconomic variables under the situation of government spending increase, tax deduction and monetary expansion. It is obvious that the government, in the case of high debt ratios and when making all endeavors to spur economy by implementing macroeconomic policies aimed for instant results, is accustomed to seeking quick fixes only to achieve very limited effects, sometimes even to drive the economy into further recession. It is therefore evident that fiscal degradation could lead to economic disaster. Moreover, as the monetary policies have certain degrees of influence on real variables of the economy, this model will not be able to clearly analyze the “neutrality of money” in such a short period of time. The effect will only reveal in the long run. In summary, the government should keep “sound finance” as the highest guiding principle and be extremely cautious in formulating policies in order to weigh all pros and cons discreetly, thus help to achieve a benefiting economic performance that generates more confidence. Furthermore, this study assesses “goodness of fit” of the model through a “calibration” experiment. Although the simulation results show, under recursive method, intermingled good and poor occasions that are beyond satisfaction, they generally agree with the “typical characteristics” of business cycles. However, in the aspect of long-criticized labor market of the real business cycle model, the fiscal policy operation under feedback rules with introduction of public debts for sure has greatly improved on the conventional intrinsic property of high correlation between labor hours and real wage rates, by delivering a relatively low theoretical correlation coefficient, which is a big step towards the empirical results of almost zero or even weakly negative correlation between labor hours and real wage rates.