冷戰結束之後，亞太地區的情勢因蘇聯內部共黨勢力的瓦解，而美國也因內部經濟問題無法負擔龐大的軍事費用而逐漸退出亞太，造成亞太地區的權力真空。這段期間內，中共已從1979年後的改革開放中取得綜合國力的提升，使中共得以在亞太地區竄起，逐漸發展成為區域強權，到現在被視為是美國潛在對手的世界強權。 中共之所以能取得今天的地位，主要靠的就是經濟的持續成長，然成長的動力乃來自於對能源之需求。目前中共為僅次於美國的全球第二大石油消費國，不過，這背後卻是高度依賴進口石油，其中80 %是經印度洋、麻六甲海峽及南海運抵大陸。從安全及經濟戰略的角度切入，中共沒有不掌握南海控制權的理由。這也道出後冷戰時期國家戰略的轉變，逐漸從陸地轉為重視海上的主權與安全，由此，中共在南海戰略布局，建立海軍基地，正是為了維護在南海的利益。 　　然而這樣的利益卻因為南海議題至終仍僵持不下，影響中共在南海戰略的目標與規畫，例如1982年的海洋公約法各自宣布經濟海域之範圍，使得各國主權的行使上具有相互重疊的部分，加上南海區域所蘊含著可觀的石油資源和航線價值，導致各個當事國皆不願放棄其主權的擁有。更不用說是境外勢力的介入，都使得南海問題變得更加複雜，進而改變中共在南海的戰略。 　　由此，本文將從這個錯綜複雜的問題中，先探討南海爭議的源頭與脈絡，有助於了解中共制定南海政策的背景。其次再從政治、經濟以及軍事方面來分析中共在南海的意圖和戰略，包括了在海南設立海軍基地、加速發展潛艦和航母等，研究中共海軍建軍的進程與南海戰略之關係。最後，再評估中共的南海戰略對區域安全所造成的衝擊，以及如何影響周邊國家和區外國家的行為。 / After the Cold War, there is no strong power in the Asia Pacific region as a result of the collapse of the communist Soviet Union while the United States (U.S.) had the economic problem which also made it to withdraw forces from that region. During this timeframe, the People’s Republic of China (PRC) has improved its overall national power by reforms and transformations since 1979 which gave it opportunity to raise and become regional superpower and is being recognized as a potential global superpower and adversary to the U.S. 　　PRC gained today’s position mainly through its continued economic growth and its growing momentum is constructed upon the energy requirement. Currently, PRC is the second largest oil consumer besides the U.S. and is heavily dependent upon the imports in which 80 percent come from the Indian Ocean, Strait of Malacca and the South China Sea. From the security and economics point of view, there is no reason PRC should give up the control of the South China Sea which explains its national strategy has shifted from continent thinking to focusing on the maritime sovereignty and security. Thus, PRC’s strategy in South China Sea and the construction of naval bases are to protect its interest in that area. 　　However, the territorial disputes of the South China Sea have influenced PRC’s strategic goal and planning. For instance, the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea in 1982 has the clause to announce economic zone which would overlap with neighboring countries. Furthermore, the potential undiscovered oil underneath the South China Sea and the critical sea lanes made relevant nations unwilling to give up their claims, not to say the involvement of foreign powers. All these have made the South China Sea a complicated issue which also affected PRC to change its South China Sea strategy. 　　Thereby, this paper will examine the origin of this complicated South China Sea issue which will help readers to understand the background of the forming of PRC’s South China Sea policy. Next, we will analyze PRC’s intent and strategy from political, economical and military aspects, including its set up of naval bases in that area and the speedup of the development of aircraft carrier and submarine, and also the relationship between PLA Navy’s buildup and the South China Sea. Finally, we will analyze the security impact to that area by PRC’s South China Sea strategy and how it affects peripheral nations’ behavior and nations outside that area.

世界貿易組織成立之後，各國經濟發展隨著交通工具與網際網路的進步，「全球化」與「區域化」成為推動全球經濟發展的動力，區域合作對國際關係的重整產生深遠的影響，同時民族國家更希望透過區域性的整合來增加經濟效率與政治接受度。已成為全球第二大經濟體的中國大陸，其領導人習近平於2013年分別提出了「絲綢之路經濟帶」與「二十一世紀海上絲綢之路」的戰略構想，做為其以經濟優勢為基礎，對周邊國家實施區域整合的策略，並成為區域性霸權的雙面刃。 基於地緣政治的因素，為了有效的施行中國大陸以發展成海洋強國為主軸的「二十一世紀海上絲綢之路」戰略構想，東南亞國協成為中國大陸企業走出去的首選目標。強調以東南亞國協為中心的「區域全面經濟夥伴協定」為中國大陸所積極推動的區域經濟整合，普遍被認為是中國大陸為了主導全球經濟，制衡美國所支持的「跨太平洋夥伴關係協定」之戰略手段，東協亦成為中美權力較量的重點區域。除了與區域外強權的經貿競逐，東南亞國協十國於政治、經濟、文化、宗教、地理與自然資源因素都存在很大的差異，中國大陸推行經貿整合的過程雖創造了合作的機遇，卻也存在諸多風險。 2010年中國大陸與東協自貿區成立以來，雙邊的服務貿易與貨物貿易協議成效均不斷擴大，中國大陸藉由「二十一世紀海上絲綢之路」和中國大陸與東協自貿區「升級版」作為中國大陸與東協當前經濟合作的支撐，並以投資為合作主軸，互聯互通為核心，輔以亞洲基礎建設投資銀行及絲路基金等銀彈策略，同時為中國大陸經濟高速成長產能過剩問題尋求出路，本文透過中國大陸海權戰略、區域經濟整合與東協經貿外交進程，分析其機遇、挑戰及影響。 / After the World Trade Organization(WTO) was formed, the progress of both the transportation and network have been pushing the development of countries’ economy. “Globalization” and “Regionalization” become the power for promoting global economy development. Regional cooperation has deep influence on the reformation of international relations. Meanwhile, nation-states would like to increase economic efficiency and political acceptance through regional integration. In 2013, China, being the world’s second largest economy, its leader, Xi Jinping, raised up strategic concept of “Silk Road Economy Belt” and “21st Century Maritime Silk Road” for its foundation of economic advantages.China is using it as a tactic to perform regional integration of the neighboring countries and to become a regional superpower. Based on the geo-political reason, in order to effectively enforce the strategic concept of “Twenty-first Century Maritime Silk Road” and to develop China as a maritime power, the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) has become the top choice for Chinese corporations to walk out. The “Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP)” centered on the ASEAN nations, which China is actively pushing for, is widely believed to be a strategic move to lead the global economy and to balance “Trans-Pacific Partnership Agreement” supported by the United States. The ASEAN has become the competing focal point for both China and the U.S. Besides the economic competition with the outside regional superpowers, all the 10 members of the ASEAN countries exist significant differences in politics, economy, culture, religion, geography, and natural resources. Therefore, despite China is creating the opportunity of economic and trading cooperation, there are still many risks. Since the establishment of China and ASEAN Free Trade Area(CAFTA) in 2010, the result of service trade and goods trade agreement has expanded. China uses both “21st Century Maritime Silk Road” and the upgraded version of “China-ASEAN Free Trade Area” to support its economic cooperation with the ASEAN, meanwhile, using investment as the principle for cooperation, and mutual communication as the core, and money bullet from Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB) and Silk road fund as the assisting strategy in order to seek way out for China’s overcapacity. This paper is for readers to understand China’s opportunity, threat, and effect through analyzing its maritime strategy, and regional economic integration with ASEAN economy diplomacy and trade progress.

近十年來，中共海軍力量的發展如同其經濟成長情形一樣快速起飛，很自然成為西方矚目焦點，特別是建立遠洋艦隊的企圖，更引起外界高度關注。依中共海軍規劃，希望在2050年具備並達到遂行遠洋作戰的能力和目標。 冷戰結束後，中共被視為崛起的新興區域強權。「中國威脅論」也一度甚囂塵上。雖然中共極力反駁，但是一個經濟高度發展、致力於富國強兵的中共，不可避免的為亞太地區的安全帶來極大的陰影。中共對於亞太地區的影響力，除了經濟因素外，終究還是以軍事力量最為明顯，使得對中共軍事力量備感壓力的亞太各國，對中共以國防現代化來突顯國力，更加的敏感。在經濟建設成果日盛的情況下，中共為擴大其沿海地區經濟的發展，及符合大國身份所推動國防現代化，都將影響亞太地區的安全。 隨著綜合國力的提升，中共以更具實力與自信處理有關核心利益的爭端。面對中共政治、經濟、軍事的全面崛起，身為全球霸權的美國謀求確保東亞區域秩序的穩定。但儘管美國在2009年7月宣布重返亞洲，中共和鄰國在領土主權問題上依舊衝突不斷。 中共之擴張已使東亞國家充滿不安全感，亞太國家仍陷入一場軍備競賽之中，並進一步鼓勵同盟體之出現及刺激日本加強軍備以求自保。不管亞太地區是進入軍備競賽之權力平衡體系，或是其他國家聯合對抗中共之態勢，對亞太地區建構中之多邊安全體系都是一種打擊。 / In the past decade, the development of PRC’s navy power has grown as fast as its economical trowth. Naturally, such rapid growth attracts the attention of western countries. PRC’s attempt to build a far sea fleet is especially highly concerned by international community. According to PRC’s own plan, it hopes to achieve the previous goals in 2050. After cold war, China has been determined a newly-rising-power country, and has started trying to conquer all the power left in the Asia Pacific area after the seperation of USSR, and along with their motivation, the rumar of the “China Threaten Theory” has once spreaded out in the world. Thought China has rejected this kind of rumar, but it is still a well-known economic and army developed country and unavoidably, affects the Pan Asia area. Generaly, economics of China is the influence to the Pan Asia area, but actually, the quick army-building is the main effect; as a matter of fact, this influence (modernized China military) has become a big pressure to Pan Asia countries. In order to follow the quick progression of economics in China, it is also trying to build the coastal area and modernize its national defense. This motivation will badly affect the safty of Pan Asia countries. As China’s comprehensive national power rises with its rapid economic growth, it becomes more capable of protecting its core interests. As a global hegemon, the U.S. strives to wecure regional stability in East Asia. Although the U.S. proposed “the U.S. Retrun to Asia” strategy in July 2009, confrontation in the South China Sea between China and other claimants still continues. This thesis discusses the impact of the U.S. return to Asia on China’s South China Sea policy. East Asia counties are new feel not safe at all due to China’s military development,and the Pan Asia countries are still playing in a game of purchasing military equipments, and moreover, China even tell Janpan to purchase more gears for their own good. It doesn’t matter what kind of system that Pan Asia countries are in , either the military competition, or united with other countries to fight China, it all will become an impact to the vivid safty system that Pan Asia countries have built.

本論文旨在探討中共海洋戰略發展之相關條件、環境、具體措施，以及對周邊國家所產生的影響。後冷戰時期國際情勢緩和，發生大規模戰爭的可能性已大幅降低，地區爭端和衝突反而浮現出來。因地緣政治環境的改變，台海、南海地區已成為區域衝突的引爆點。中共研析波灣戰爭之經驗，放棄「早打、大打、打核戰」時時臨戰之觀念，強調「質量建軍打贏高科技局部戰爭」之策略，故調整戰略方向由陸上走向海洋，以保障其國家利益、國防安全及完成統一中國之企圖。就整體國力言，中共自1978年實施經濟改革後．，經濟成長快速，國家競爭力上升，無庸置疑，已經成為亞太地區經濟大國。而蘇聯解體後，中共來自北方威脅降低，有利其海洋之發展。又因沿海海洋爭奪及領土紛爭問題亟待解決，更全力擴展其海軍武力。中共在 1998年就制定了「中國二十一世紀海洋議程」，提出中國海洋事業永續發展政策。同年中共國務院在國際海洋年會中提出《中國海洋事業發展白皮書》，其中明文主張「中國是發展中沿海大國」。中共大力發展海洋戰略，已為亞太地區安全投下一個變數，亞太各國均深感不安。加上區域內互信機制不夠健全，中共時時對台灣文攻武嚇，更增加地區衝突之危險性。故未來台海、南海問題最後是以和平方式或兵戎相見收場，中共的戰略作為就顯得十分重要。 關鍵字：亞太戰略；國家戰略；海洋戰略；海軍戰略；海軍現代化；海權；積極防禦；近海防禦；局部戰爭；太平洋島鏈；兵力展示，有生戰力；聯合國海洋法公約；戰區飛彈防禦系統；遏制點阻滯；海洋經濟；指管通情系統；亞太經合會；東協區域論壇；東南亞國家協會。