過去研究說明具產業專長之會計師仍能在客戶財務資訊不完整情況下，利用其行業特定知識與較高技術能力執行完善的審計工作(Thibodeau 2003; Moroney 2007; Hammersley 2006)。本論文定義資訊不確定性為客戶之財務資訊無法幫助預測公司的價值(Zhang 2006; Autore et al. 2009)。本論文推論若公司的財務報表具有不確定性會需要聘請產業專長會計師以減緩資訊不確定性的程度，並進一步研究具資訊不確定性公司若由非產業專長更換為產業專長會計師是否能提升其審計品質。由於審計工作目的在於提供資訊品質的確認(Dye 1993; Knechel et al. 2008)，審計人員會依據審計客戶的環境，設計和執行適當的審計計劃以減輕資訊不確定性情況。本論文以會計師角度建立一資訊不確定性架構，進一步將資訊不確定性分為基本價值波動不確定性與資訊品質不確定性，並推論產業專長會計師比較能在資訊品質不確定性中發揮其價值。本論文分為兩部分：第一部分檢驗資訊不確定性是否會影響產業專長會計師之選任，第二部分則檢測具資訊不確定性之審計客戶若選擇產業專長會計師之後，其審計品質是否會提升。 / Previous studies establish that a specialist auditor has more industry-specific knowledge and higher technological capability that can pertinently benefit situations in which client financial information is incomplete (Thibodeau 2003; Moroney 2007; Hammersley 2006). In this paper, we define information uncertainty as the ambiguity with respect to the implications of new information concerning a firm’s value (Zhang 2006; Autore et al. 2009). Because some financial statements present information in uncertain terms, we infer that companies whose financial statements provide uncertain information demand specialist auditors to alleviate the extent of information uncertainty. We further examine the improvements on audit quality made by those companies under information uncertainty which chose to switch from non-specialist auditors to specialist ones. As an assurance of information quality (Dye 1993; Knechel et al. 2008), an auditor, based on his knowledge of the auditee and its environment, will alleviate the uncertainty level of the auditee’s financial information through designing and executing an appropriate audit plan. We build a framework of information uncertainty and develop comprehensive measurements of information uncertainty from the auditor’s point of view. Moreover, this study disentangles the information uncertainty effects into fundamental volatility uncertainty and information quality uncertainty, and proposes that specialist auditors manifest their merits more under information quality uncertainty than under fundamental volatility uncertainty. In the first part of this study, we examine the auditors chosen by companies whose financial statements are characterized by information uncertainty. Previous studies on auditor choice address many reasons why companies switch their auditors (Lennox 2000; Carcello and Neal 2003; Blouin et al. 2007). Information uncertainty makes stakeholders lower their reliance upon company financials and even downgrade the filers, triggering negative stock price reactions (Merton 1987; Beneish et al. 2005; Beneish et al. 2008; Hammersley et al. 2008). Based on prior research, we can infer that a company under information uncertainty chooses to hire a specialist auditor to signal the credibility of the financial statements and improve market perception. We hypothesize that companies suffering uncertainty demand specialist auditors to alleviate their information uncertainty. The auditor’s information role is to ensure the reliability of financial information, and a specialist auditor is equipped with superior audit knowledge and technology. Therefore, we further infer that a company whose specific information uncertainty is attributable to information quality issues (rather than fundamental volatility issues) is more inclined to choose a specialist auditor. This is because a specialist auditor improves the credibility of financial information instead of being involved with the client’s business decisions. We use an auditor switching sample of U.S. companies from 2001-2009 to examine whether the information uncertainty is an issue of auditor choice or not. Consistent with our conjecture, companies under information uncertainty prefer to hire specialist auditors. Evidence partially supports that relative to companies under fundamental volatility uncertainty, companies suffering information quality uncertainty are more inclined to choose specialist auditors. In the second part of this study, we find evidence for the economic consequences of upgrading switches to a specialist auditor when the company is experiencing information uncertainty. After the Sarbanes-Oxley Act (hereafter, SOX), many companies began to take the cost-effect issue into consideration; they ultimately decided to go private (Zhang 2006; Engel et al. 2007) in order to avoid the high-cost of Section 404 or switch to a non-Big N audit firm (Calderon et al. 2007). There's no such thing as free lunch; the specialist auditor usually has greater ability and concomitant higher charges (Craswell et al. 1995; DeFond et al. 2000; Francis et al. 2005; Cahan et al. 2008). It is natural to question whether every company needs to engage specialist auditors if it has to pay high audit fees. In this paper, we attempt to determine in which circumstances specialist auditors can make a significant difference in improving audit quality. We investigate the relationship between auditor specialization and audit quality in an information uncertainty setting using an auditor switching sample taken from 2001 to 2009 in the United States. We examine ex post facto whether (1) specialist auditors improve audit quality more than their non-specialist counterparts; and (2) specialist auditors manifest their merits more under information quality uncertainty than the fundamental volatility uncertainty. Since the value of auditor industry specialization is reflected by the perceived and actual audit quality (Balsam et al. 2003; Nagy 2005), we examine both earnings response coefficient (ERC) and accruals quality to proxy audit quality (DAC). In both models, the audit quality of companies that suffer fundamental volatility uncertainty along with comprehensive uncertainty is not enhanced substantially following upgrade switching to a specialist auditor. We find strong empirical results that demonstrate companies under information quality uncertainty show significant improvements in audit quality after switching to specialist auditors. However, specialist auditors are significantly more capable of mitigating the information quality uncertainty than the fundamental volatility uncertainty. That is, auditor specialization is a critical solution when companies encounter information quality uncertainty.

第一章緒論，旨在解明本論文之研究動機及論文架構。 第二章舉證責任分配體系與損害賠償數額之確定，旨在解明舉證責任分配之概念、舉證責任分配法則、舉證責任分配原則之體系建構，並在本章當中，將說明「損害賠償數額之確定」此一舉證責任減輕機制於舉證責任分配體系中之體系定位。 第三章損害賠償數額之確定之立法旨趣，旨在解明我國民事訴訟法第二二二條第二項之立法旨趣，本文將先就外國法之相關規定及其立法旨趣加以解明，次針對民國八十九年所制訂民事訴訟法第二二二條第二項之立法旨趣從立法資料、學理上、實務上之看法加以解明其立法旨趣之所在。 第四章損害賠償數額之確定之適用範圍，旨在解明此一制度的適用範圍，針對因果關係、損害賠償請求權、損害賠償請求權之包括或(及)一律請求、與有過失等是否有此一制度之適用，將於本章加以解明。此外，針對學理上所提出之可能類推適用此一制度之事項，本章亦將一併予以討論說明。 第五章損害賠償數額之確定之構成要件，本章將先就法條之構成要件與德國法上之差異處加以解明，次就民事訴訟法第二二二條第二項之法文構成要件加以說明，末針對相關聯之制度亦一併於本章加以檢討分析。 第六章損害賠償數額之確定之法律效果，本章將就學理上所提出之證明度降低說、衡平裁量說、折衷說等三說加以說明分析，並對於我國實務上之看法整理分析。 第七章回顧與展望，係本論文對於損害賠償數額之確定此一制度所提出看法之整體性回顧，以俾讀者迅速地掌握本文對於損害賠償數額之確定之法理論、要件論、效果論之看法。

在股東負擔有限責任之前提下，為衡平股東與公司債權人之利益，避免僅有股東享有有限責任之絕對優勢，故大陸法系對公司債權人債權實現之保障採取事前管制措施，對於公司資本與資金之使用設有多重限制，寄望公司資本能成為公司債權人實現債權之屏障，因而有資本三原則之設計。惟此制從其所架構之原型到現在已經過相當之修正，我國法之具體落實規範亦已與其原本之設計架構產生相當大之落差，其原本所欲達成之制度目標因而多有未竟其功之處，其存在實益因而飽受質疑。 惟此究係理論本身之問題，抑或是具體落實規範有所不足？實有探究之必要。本論文就理論面出發，分析資本三原則之設計架構是否妥適，並於討論我國法之具體規範發展過程後，再比較美國法及日本法，檢討我國現行規定之妥當性，進而於有所不妥之處，試著提出解決之道。 本文所探討之重點規範如下： 一、資本確定原則部分： 法定資本制、折衷式授權資本制、授權資本制。 二、資本維持原則部分： 股份折價發行之禁止與例外、出資標的、股份回籠禁止原則與例外、盈餘分派與公積制度。 三、資本不變原則部分： 減資態樣、保障公司債權人程序。

本論文採用實地實證研究，以一家專業晶圓代工廠商為研究對象，詳細分析在晶圓代工的製造環境下，產品多樣性及製造彈性對生產品質、生產週期時間、設備生產力與生產成本之影響。不同於過去研究，以外部彈性(例如：產品組合彈性、新產品彈性等)為研究重心，本論文以內部彈性為研究範疇，涵蓋機器彈性與路徑彈性兩種彈性型態，據以彌補現存製造彈性文獻的缺口。 關於產品多樣性與製造彈性對生產績效與生產成本之直接影響，本論文首先以等候理論與整數規劃模型為基礎，加入實地環境特性的考量，推導研究假說與實證模型；繼而，蒐集來自個案公司6個月的詳細生產資料，包括兩類資料型態：機台水準(machine-level)與生產批量水準(lot-level)進行實證分析。綜合理論模型與實證分析結果，本論文發現：在晶圓代工的製造環境中，由於製程高度自動化之故，產品多樣性對生產績效的直接影響並不顯著，但因研發與工程實驗所產生的環境變異性則對生產績效具有顯著的負面影響；在製造彈性方面，吾人則發現路徑彈性不僅有助於生產週期時間的縮短，也對品質與成本績效具有顯著的正向影響，而機器彈性雖有助於設備生產力的提昇與生產成本的降低，但對生產品質則有顯著的負面影響，此外，本研究也發現：製造彈性與設備生產力、生產週期時間及生產成本之間存在非線性關係，並呈現報酬遞減的趨勢，隱含：極大化製造彈性並非最佳，有限的彈性水準即可達到最大的彈性利益。 考慮製造彈性的價值高低與環境不確定性密切相關，本研究進一步採用路徑分析檢視產品多樣性、製造彈性、環境不確定性與生產績效之間的關聯性，基於本研究以內部彈性為研究範疇，並以製造環境為研究客體，依據生產管理文獻，由製程時間變異性、到達時間變異性及產品需求變異性三項指標定義製造環境的不確定性。實證結果顯示：產品多樣性主要係透過環境不確定性間接影響生產績效，而機器彈性與路徑彈性則有助於調和內部不確定性對生產績效的負面影響，進而達成生產績效的提昇。本論文之分析結果隱含：過去管理會計研究認為產品多樣性對生產績效的影響主要來自於批量作業活動(batch-level activities)與產品支援活動(product-sustaining activities)的增加，而忽略產品多樣性對環境不確定性的影響，可能低估產品多樣性的攸關成本，尤其在一高利用率與高度動態的生產環境中，產品多樣性透過環境不確定性對生產績效的間接影響可能大於產品多樣性對生產績效的直接影響；另一方面，本研究指出：在一動態環境中，廠商可透過製造彈性的提昇，降低環境不確定性對生產績效的負面影響，但最適彈性水準的決定則須取決於製造彈性與其他生產績效衡量之間的函數關係。 / This thesis reports the results of a field empirical study examining the impact of product variety and manufacturing flexibility on production quality, cycle time, equipment productivity, and production cost within the context of semiconductor wafer fabrication facilities. To fill the gap in existing research, I attempt to study internal flexibility, rather than external flexibility (e.g., product flexibility, mix flexibility). Two types of internal flexibility are selected, which are machine flexibility and routing flexibility. Using both machine-level and lot-level production data from one dedicated wafer fabrication plant, this thesis examines the direct impact of product variety and manufacturing flexibility on production performance and production cost. Empirical results suggest that greater product variety does not have a significant impact on equipment productivity but does have a significant adverse impact on production quality. Moreover, I find support for the hypotheses that greater routing flexibility has a significant positive impact on quality, time, and cost performance. As for machine flexibility, it has a significant positive impact on equipment productivity and cost performance, but has a significant negative impact on production quality. Furthermore, I also find a non-linear relation between manufacturing flexibility and equipment productivity, cycle time, and production cost. This implies that maximizing the level of manufacturing flexibility is not necessarily optimal for firms. Limiting the flexibility level may actually have the greatest benefit. To further clarify the mechanisms through which variety and flexibility impacts performance, I move beyond the direct effects and investigate the linkage between product variety, manufacturing flexibility, environmental uncertainty and production performance. Based on the operations research, environmental uncertainty is operationally defined as the process time variation, inter-arrival time variation, and output variation. Results from path analysis indicate that product variety negatively affects production performance through environmental uncertainty. This finding stands in direct contrast to the general belief in management accounting research that greater product variety leads to an increase in the number of batch-level activities and product-sustaining activities, which thus increase the production cost. In other words, the reported cost of product variety may be underestimated, because we do not consider the impact of product variety on environmental uncertainty. The magnitude of the underestimation is especially greater in a highly congested and stochastic environment. Empirical results also show that machine flexibility and routing flexibility mitigate the adverse impact of environmental uncertainty on production performance.

本文建立一個小型開放經濟的內生成長模型，並且以貨幣進入生產函數的方式，將貨幣引入經濟體系。據此，我們分別探討勞動外生及勞動內生的狀況下，央行以釘住通貨膨脹率作為貨幣政策，民眾的信念是否可以造成景氣的波動，並探討央行採行未預料到的貨幣政策及預料到的貨幣政策會如何影響經濟體系相關變數的成長率。 　　根據本文的分析，我們發現在勞動外生的狀況下，通貨膨脹率與Tobin q值呈現負向關係，由此我們可以推論，提高通貨膨脹率目標將對經濟成長率造成負面的影響。當央行採取通貨膨脹率指標作為貨幣政策時，經濟體系呈現均衡的確定性，表示民眾的信念不會造成景氣的波動。若央行調整通貨膨脹率目標時，名目貨幣供給成長率和通貨膨脹率呈現不同比例的變動，且變動方向不確定，需端視實質餘額成長率下降的效果與通貨膨脹率調整的效果何者較大才可決定。在政策宣示的部分，宣告期間的長短僅影響經濟成長率、實質資本成長率及實質貨幣餘額成長率的跳動幅度，不影響動態調整路徑的形狀。 　　在勞動內生化的狀況下，通貨膨脹率增減不影響Tobin q值的變動，故提高通貨膨脹率目標不會影響經濟成長率。當央行採取通貨膨脹率指標作為貨幣政策，勞動需求線斜率大於勞動供給線斜率時，經濟體系呈現均衡的不確定性，表示民眾的信念可以造成景氣的波動在央行調整通貨膨脹率目標時，名目貨幣供給成長率和通貨膨脹率呈現同方向、同比例變動。最後，政策宣示部分，政策宣告期間的長短會造成經濟成長率、實質資本成長率及實質貨幣餘額成長率呈現不同的動態調整路徑。

在經濟發展的過程中，環境污染往往是其代價。石化產業在台灣經濟發展過程中扮演著火車頭的角色，帶動相關產業的勃興，但也帶來日益增加的環境污染與其社會爭議，成為政府部門必須面對的課題。在傳統的環境管制政策當中，科學評估被視為中立、理性客觀之分析技術，能夠有效處理環境問題的方法，其強調專業中立的形象，也與官僚理性所強調的中立性相似。因此這不僅是環境行政程序設計之核心，也是行政正當性的重要來源。但因著環境議題的複雜化、科學不確定性的增加，在行政程序當中，僅著重專家角色的行政程序，相信專家能夠帶來各樣問題的解答，不僅在程序上限制了多元知識類型的進入，既無法共同建構問題、也無法形成決策基礎的一部分；同時行政機關也此程序將決策責任移轉給專家；然而因著科學不確定性，使得專家必須在未知的情況下進行決策，因而使得決策內容會更加保守，讓環境爭議窄化成「如何收集更多資訊」等技術問題。行政機關原欲以專家作為決策正當性的來源，但狹隘的科學想像框架不僅使程序無法有效地處理環境爭議、無法回應來自多元參與者的提問，反而使得決策正當性更加受到嚴重的挑戰。 本研究以國光石化開發案的健康風險議題與六輕工安大火事件兩個案的環評過程為分析案例。在國光石化環評過程，健康風險議題是主要爭議焦點。當時有學者研究指出國光石化營運之後，將對台灣民眾的健康風險帶來重要影響，並指認環評書中所低估或錯估的部分。面對不同的科學研究爭議，環保署依其狹隘的科學框架，欲創制一套評判程序以解決爭議，卻適得其反。與此同時，六輕也在 2010年7 月傳出工安大火事件，地方陸續傳出有吳郭魚、文蛤、雛鴨等大量死亡的農業損失情事，使六輕營運後所造成的環境影響與健康風險問題，受到社會高度矚目。環保署因而要求台塑提出「環境影響調查報告書」進行審查。但環評專案小組因著科學不確定性而難以依科學論證作為基礎做出決策。最終則是以法院判決來作為決策的正當性來源。 本文透過多重資料來源的蒐集，包括田野訪談、環評專案小組會議、專家會議等相關之會議紀錄、相關事件的剪報資料，以及相關會議的參與觀察紀錄等。藉由兩個案的分析，探討行政程序建立在狹隘的科學框架之上時，為何產生行政決策的僵局，探討結構上的侷限與受到的正當性挑戰。並以論述應邁向具社會強健性的知識建構為基礎的開放行政程序，以強化決策正當性的根基。 / The scientific assessment in the traditional environment regulation policy is generally regarded as a rational technique. The common impression of scientific assessment is neutral and specialized, which is similar to the major principle of Bureaucracy, organization by functional specialty, defined by Max Weber. Therefore, the scientific assessment has been not only a foundation of environmental administration procedure, but also a resource of legitimacy. On the contrary, while the government just focuses on the scientific evidence in administrative procedure, there will be the political debates unable to resolve effectively. Because administrative procedure is unable to include multi-knowledge from different stakeholders, administration deal with environmental problems only limits to the sufficiency of scientific evidences. Consequently, administration transfers the responsibility about decision making to the experts committee. But experts committee could not make decision definitely, and the decision would be conservative, because of scientific uncertainty. As a result, the interpretation of environmental problems is narrowed to the proof of causal relationship between pollutants and environmental impacts. Since unknown causal relationships always exist, there will be ongoing arguments and disputes of environmental problems. Taking two examples of the environment impact assessment of a fire accident in the sixth naphtha cracking project in July, 2010, and the KuoKuang Petrochemical Project, 2011, the research analyze the hidden science framework and limitation behind the administrative procedure. The finding is that the technicalization of administration leads to government role shrinking and erodes the legitimacy of decision. In order to strengthen the foundation of legitimacy, administration should rebuild an open administrative procedure to foster socially robust knowledge.

絕大多數在台灣的企業屬於年輕的中小企業，他們所熟知的商業模式是生產代工，並無技術與市場的不確定性問題。如何從生產代工的商業模式跳躍到美國新創公司的知識經濟模式實在是一個對雙方都是很大的挑戰。由於雙方的不對稱性太大有必要讓其它人界入並彌補中間落差。開放式創新中需要技術仲介聯結買方與賣方。而技術仲介則是辦識(破壞式)創新機會的來源之一。在維興國際公司目前所專注的四個不同技術中，同時包括B2B及B2C的產品領域。但無論是B2B及B2C，市場拉力與技術推力在技術仲介的領域中均同樣必須受到重視。 本研究由相關文獻探討，推展出以(買方)目標工業的選擇與管理、(賣方)管理並降低市場的不確定性、技術仲介的需求缺口三構面的研究架構來探討技術仲介業在美國新創公司的技術仲介服務活動的關鍵因素與管理項目。本研究採用個案研究法深入訪談個案公司的高階主管以了解其新創過程的實務作為。由個案分析與研究發現得出研究結論如下： 結論一：成功的技術仲介業對技術賣方的選擇與管理應考慮(1)新創公司生態(2)新創公司的動態管理(3)新創公司的選擇(4)新創公司的管理。 結論二：成功的技術仲介業對技術買方的管理應考慮到(1)社會氛圍與使用者的認知(2)使用者的吸收能力(3)創新與使用(4)降低技術與市場的不確定性。 結論三：技術仲介的成功因素包括(1)技術仲介的加值能耐(2)技術仲介的承諾(3)專利/技術加值增加原供應商的仰賴(4)經營策略的創新與新事業開發。 結論四：技術仲介屬於知識管理的一環，在開放式創新中需要技術仲介聯結買方與賣方。而技術仲介則是辦識(破壞式)創新機會的來源之一。 結論五：台灣目前的技術服務業的主導者是以工研院技轉中心為主要的供需中心，輔以少數私人的智財買賣。 結論六：全世界都在鼓勵創新，國家的競爭力表現於創新與創業教育的養成。 / Most companies in Taiwan are belong to young SMEs, their business model is known for everybody and mainly the foundry model, there is no technology and market uncertainties. It is indeed a great challenge from the production foundry jumping into the knowledge based US startups. Since the dissymmetry from both sides are huge there exist a need for others to bridge the gap. Technology broker links buyer and seller in the area of open innovation. It is also one of the sources of innovation opportunities. WH International currently focused on four different technologies, including both B2B and B2C products. But whether it is B2B and B2C, market pull and technology push in the field of technology brokers are also to be taken seriously. From the related literatures survey, based on a technology transfer company, this study is to promote the technology sales (the seller) and management of technology uncertainty, to help (the seller) to manage and reduce market uncertainty, to meet market demands of the technology broker, and compose the three dimensions of framework: the seller, the buyer and the broker. This research adopts case study method to analyze the practice of the case company. The research results are as below. 1. The selection factors of a successful technology broker facing technology vendor should consider (1) ecosystem of start ups (2) the dynamic management of start ups (3) the choice of start ups (4) the management of start ups. 2. The management of technology buyers from a successful broker should take into consideration of(1) the user's cognitive and social atmosphere (2) the absorptive capacity of users (3) innovation and the diffusion (4) reduce uncertainty of market. 3. The successful factors for technology broker include (1) the value-added capability (2) the commitment to technology (3) patents / technology development to increase value-added services to suppliers (4) innovation of business strategy and new business development. 4. Technical brokering is a part of knowledge management. Technology broker links buyers and sellers in open innovation while it is also one of the sources of innovation opportunities. 5. Technology Transfer Center of the ITRI is the clear leader of technology services industry in Taiwan. There also existed some small private firms that handled intellectual property transactions. 6. Innovation is encouraged worldwide and national competition is reflected in the cultivation of innovation and entrepreneurship education.

針對各國普遍面臨人口結構逐漸老化、退休人口增加問題，世界銀行曾提出應建立至少三層保障的養老制度之呼籲；而我國迄今尚未建構出一套全面性之老年經濟生活安全保障制度，現有退休制度係依國民職業身分作為區分基礎。近幾年政府財政日趨惡化，加以國內經濟景氣不佳，失業率節節升高，公務人員由於工作與薪資相對較為穩定，其退休給付亦較完備；因此，遂引起各界對公務人員退休給付及其條件之合理及公平性的諸多討論。而公務人員退撫基金管理良窳，除攸關公務人員退休權益，亦牽涉政府最後給付責任，在政府可用資源相對減少下，如何防範政治力介入，暨因應現有制度與管理上的若干缺失，避免未來發生嚴重財務危機，均為本研究之重點。 本研究採取文獻探討、比較研究法，並輔以德菲爾法（Delphi Method）、問卷調查等方法，就公平及管理角度檢視現行公務人員退休制度所存在之缺失及具體改進之道。研究結果發現大多數受訪者認為我國對老年經濟生活安全之保障，與個人從事職業別有很大關聯；除軍公教人員以外之其他職域與非工資勞動者的老年經濟生活保障普遍不足，故在制度比較上常衍生出差別性待遇公平性問題；而退撫基金經營決策又常有政治力介入，特別是政經情勢不穩定時，除非逐漸民營化，政府僅擔任監督者角色，否則既使修法明定政府干預、挪用基金等限制條文，只要仍維持現行制度精神，由政府管理，便很難防範政治力介入該基金之實際運作。 基此，本研究提出下述幾點建議：1.政府應致力提升其他職域（身分）人員之老年經濟生活安全保障；2.公務人員請領月退休金年齡條件應予以延後，並適度降低現行給付水準；3.研議增訂彈性退休規定，並研酌展期年金及減額年金之可行性；4.宜朝向「確定給付制」兼採「確定提撥制」混合制方向發展，並逐步提高「確定提撥制」比例及採個人退休金帳戶制；5.修法明確規範退撫基金提撥率之調整機制，以健全基金財務結構；6.宜逐步增加退撫基金國外投資配置比例；7.應研酌未達法定最低收益由國庫補足差額之規定，以免否對資產長期配置造成扭曲；8.對於有價證券之投資應改採市價法評價，以反映基金資產真實價值；9.加強退撫基金財務資訊公開，以利全體投保人之監督；10.現行基金管理與監理組織，可研酌精簡合併為一獨立專業監理機關。11.修法使退撫基金經營管理趨向私有化與自由化。 / To confront the ever growing ageing trend and consequent retirement tide, the World Bank has contended three pillars of old age security over the past few years. The ROC government, however, has not yet launched a national pension scheme to ensure the elderly economic security so far although the Plan has been worked out for some time. The country is currently adopting a retirement system based on people’s occupation. Civil servants all along enjoy relatively sound and stabilized retirement benefits even under the aggravating financial difficulties and the economy recession. Together with the increasing unemployment rate, this phenomenon has augmented a great deal of discussion with regard to its fairness. In addition, since the government has played significant role in terms of Pension Fund Management, how to prevent political intervention and avoid mismanagement particularly during economic crisis certainly deserve close scrutiny. In light of the aforementioned, this study, based on literature review, survey, and Delphi, focuses on the fairness and management perspectives of the existing pension system for civil servants. It is found that most interviewees agree that civil servants comparatively enjoy better retirement benefits than the rest of the population since the current pension system has been designed on occupational basis. It is further observed by the interviewees that political intervention does exist in terms of Pension Fund Management especially during economic recession. It is thus harbored that perhaps only through “privatization”, such intervention can come to its stop. The study, among other things, suggests the followings: 1.A national pension scheme covering all people is required. 2.Postponing the age of receiving annuity from the current 50 to a later age and reasonably cutting off some civil servants’ pension benefits need to be addressed. 3.Adding flexibility to current civil servants’ retirement system is worth pondering. 4.Working out a system blending together “defined benefit” and “defined contribution” in which the proportion of “defined contribution” should be gradually enlarged. Thoughts with regard to “individual account” should also be studied. 5.Adjusting the insurance fee for pension fund is necessary in order to ensure financial viability. 6.Bigger proportion of pension funds’ overseas investment should be allowed. 7.Investment in securities should be evaluated with market price to reflect the actual value of fund assets. 8.Pension funds management report should be released to the general public for supervision. 9.Professional pension fund supervision mechanism has to be established. 10.Law provisions as to privatize and liberalize the pension fund need to be worked out.

現行各國的退休金計畫逐漸地由確定給付制轉變為確定提撥制。這表示投資的風險由原本退休金計畫的發起者(雇主)轉移到了參與者(員工)的身上。為了減少每個確定提撥制計畫參與者的投資風險，本文中採用退休時所得替代率為預估的目標，藉由模擬與最適化的方法找到最適投資策略與最適提撥率。 能反映出時間性的隨機模型在精算科學的領域是日漸重要，本文試著藉由隨機性的變化來估計代替以往精算上各種假設下所求得的負債。本文藉由隨機模擬的方式，得到各種資產在市場上或者是經濟上的價值來建構相關投資標的之報酬率，並利用動態隨機規劃模型去改善財務上避險以及資產負債管理。此外，為了避免模擬分析時間過長的問題，本文採用了情境抽樣的方法去改善電腦模擬分析計算時的效率。 我們主要得到以下結論： (一)確定提撥制下的負債受薪資水準波動的影響，所以此時會持有較 多的指數連結型債券以反應薪資水準及通貨膨脹的影響。整體投 資的結果與Vigna & Haberman (2001) 文中的結果及實務上生命 週期型態(lifestyle)投資方式呈現相同的現象。 (二)考慮每期下跌風險(downside risk)時，期中的投資可能會偏向 於投資風險較高的股票。在每年觀察下跌風險的情況下其投資因 為必須考慮避免每一年的下跌風險，需要比每五年觀察下跌風險 的情況做風險較大的投資，以達到其目標。 (三)在本文的調整投資組合策略下，因為調整次數不多，所以在考慮 交易成本的情況，當交易成本很小時對於整體的最適化資產配置 與最適化提撥率的影響是很小的。在本文的調整投資組合策略 下，交易成本的影響只有在交易成本非常大的情況下才能看得出 來。 (四)均勻抽樣法抽出的400組情境幾乎可以完全的代替4000組情境， 其結果可以看出與未抽樣相同的生命週期型態(lifestyle)投資 方式。而隨機抽樣法的結果雖然也可看出趨勢，但準確性相對於 均勻抽樣法仍稍嫌不足，並不適合用來代替原先的4000組情境。 / A shift from defined-benefit pension plan towards defined-contribution pension plan is currently popular around the world. This means that a serious investment risk transfers from defined-benefit sponsors to the individual members of defined-contribution plans. In order to reduce the risk of individual DC member, we investigate the methodology of finding the optimal contribution rate and asset allocation to reach a certain target of the retirement replacement rate in this paper. Stochastic processes are getting more important to the field of actuarial science. Instead of trying to approximate liabilities by a single deterministic set of actuarial assumption, we seek to take account of market or economic valuation for both assets and liabilities using stochastic simulation. We applied dynamic stochastic programming models to improve financial hedging and asset liability management. Moreover, in order to avoid the problem of time-consuming, we use scenario sampling method to improve the efficiency of computer calculation. We draw four conclusions from our investigations： (1)We will hold more assets in indexed-linked bonds because the pension liability is highly related to the wage- index and inflation rate. The optimal investment strategy is very like the so called "lifestyle" investment strategy. (2)When we consider downside risk, we should hold more risky equities. The investment strategy is more risky when we consider downside risk every year than every 5 years. (3)Under our rebalancing strategy, if the transaction cost is small, the influence on the investment strategy and contribution rate is small. We can see the influence of the transaction cost in a situation that the transaction cost is very big only. (4)There are almost no different between uniform sampling scenarios and original simulation scenarios, so uniform sampling scenarios may replace the original simulation scenarios perfectly. And random sampling method is unsuitable to replace the original simulation scenarios.

本文分成兩個部分探討失業者的工作搜尋決策，第一部分利用遞延選擇權模型模擬市場景氣、預期工作機會出現機率、不確定性等因素對失業者工作搜尋決策的影響。第二部份利用2006年至2010年主計處的「人力資源調查」及「人力運用調查」資料從事實證分析。本文從實證分析中驗證以下的模擬結果：一、市場上的工資波動率與失業者的保留工資有正向關係，與移轉到就業的機率有負向關係。二、失業者對工作機會出現機率的預期較高時，擁有較高的保留工資，移轉到就業的機率較低。另外，學習速度較快的失業者在搜尋工作的過程中會以較快的速度下降保留工資，移轉到就業的機率較高。三、失業者對於工作搜尋報酬的不確定程度較高時，擁有較低的保留工資，移轉到就業的機率較高。 / This thesis consists of two parts. The first part is devoted to applying a real option approach to simulate the impacts of market prospect, expected offer arrival rate, and uncertainty on job search decisions. The second part provides an empirical illustration to validate the simulation results by using unemployment data from the 2006-2010 Taiwan Manpower Utilization Survey. The main findings of this thesis can be summarized as follows: (i) The wage volatility is related positively with the reservation wage of the unemployed, but inversely with the transition probability into employment. (ii) If a rising offer arrival rate is expected, the unemployed increase reservation wages and thus decrease transition probabilities. Furthermore, higher learning speed acts to intensively lower the reservation wage. (iii) When the degree of payoff uncertainty is higher, the unemployed decrease reservation wages and thus increase transition probabilities.