This paper discusses the ability of models on cheap talk, and of audit and liability regulations, to provide analytically-based assessment of credibility of management forecast disclosure in market and regulated settings. While credibility is linked to restrictive conditions in pure market settings, regulatory enforcement does not necessarily contribute to forecast credibility. Key findings imply that ex ante approaches, including audit and tort liability in general, as well as partly verifiable disclosures supplementing the forecast and safe harbour provisions in particular can contribute to forecast credibility. Overall results suggest that the usefulness of managerial forecast disclosure should not be overestimated, as neither market nor regulatory mechanisms can overcome the problems related to non-verifiability.

Lagerhantering avser aktiviteter som mottagning av varor, inlagring, lagring, orderplockning, omlagring, sortering och frakt. Enligt tidigare studier, av bland annat Drury (1988), uppstår 55% - 60% av lagrets kostnader i orderplockning och omlagring. Idag finns teorier och modeller om hur lagerhantering kring orderplockning och omlagring kan optimeras. Dock behandlas bulklager sällan i forskning eller litteratur. Detta arbete hade således i syfte att undersöka vedertagen teoris anpassningsförmåga på en verksamhet med bulklager. Studien har uppfyllt syftet genom en fall- och litteraturstudie med både kvalitativa och kvantitativa tillvägagångssätt i form av intervjuer och observationer. Lagerutformning och lagerstyrning kan med fördel ses som grundläggande metoder som förutsätter effektivitetsutveckling inom plockning och omlagring i bulklager. Metoder som MUDA och 5S skapar förutsättningarna att identifiera, upprätthålla och genomföra effektivitetsförbättringar.  De vedertagna metoderna som studerats kunde genom observation och intervju konstateras som implementerbar eller icke implementerbar. Som sammanfattning kunde en övergripande mall av metoderna sammanställas där det gemensamt och separat kunde bidra till effektivisering. Fallföretaget kunde förses med förbättringsförslag som rekommenderas att införas i både mindre etapper och under större, mer omfattande projekt. / Inventory management refers to activities such as receiving goods, storing, in storage, order picking, rearranging, sorting and shipping. According to previous studies, by Drury (1988), 55% - 60% of the warehouse costs incur in order picking and rearrangement. Today there are theories and models on how inventory management around order picking and rearrangement can be optimized. However, bulk stocks are rarely addressed in research or literature. Thus, this work was aimed at examining the adaptive theory of customary methods in a business with bulk storage. The study has fulfilled its purpose through a case and literature study with both qualitative and quantitative approaches in the form of interviews and observations. Inventory design and inventory control can advantageously be seen as basic methods that require efficiency development in picking and rearranging in bulk storages. Methods such as MUDA and 5S create the conditions for identifying, maintaining and implementing efficiency improvements. The customary methods studied could, through observation and interview, be found to be implementable or non-implementable. In summary, an overall template of the methods could be compiled where they could jointly and separately contribute to efficiency improvements. The studied company could be provided with improvement proposals that are recommended to be introduced in both smaller stages and during larger, more extensive projects.

Ziel dieser Studie, die auf Anregung des BUND entstand, ist es, zu fünf Fragen Stellung zu nehmen, die für die Gestaltung einer nachhaltigen und effizienten Luftverkehrsentwicklung in Deutschland wichtig sind. 1. Welche Kapazität haben die Bahnensysteme der drei großen Flughäfen Berlin (BER), München und Düsseldorf? Müssen diese Flughäfen um weitere Bahnen vergrößert werden oder reicht ihre Kapazität aus? 2. Welche flughafenrelevanten Trends bestimmen den Luftverkehr in Deutschland? Muss man den aktuellen Forderungen der Luftverkehrswirtschaft folgen oder gibt es auch Anzeichen für alternative Entwicklungen, die nachhaltiger sind und zu effizienteren Lösungen führen? 3. Wie gut und verlässlich sind Prognosen der Luftverkehrswirtschaft? Muss man diese Prognosen hinnehmen oder gibt es Anhaltspunkte dafür, dass sie systematisch unzuverlässig sind? 4. Wie sind die wirtschaftlichen Perspektiven der Flughäfen? Warum erzielen so viele Flughäfen Verluste? Was kann getan werden, um die Verluste zu verringern? 5. Welche Erfahrungen gibt es mit Flughafenkooperationen? Müssen Flughäfen immer alleinstehende Unternehmen darstellen oder gibt es Beispiele für gelungene kooperative Lösungen? Die Studie beleuchtet historische Erfahrungen, stellt aktuelle Entwicklungen vor und zieht Schlussfolgerungen für eine zukunftsfähige Luftverkehrspolitik in Deutschland. Drei wesentliche Aspekte dabei sind eine marktgerechte Internalisierung externer Effekte des Luftverkehrs, eine verstärkte Kooperation von Flughäfen in Deutschland und eine weitere Marktöffnung des deutschen Marktes für ausländische Wettbewerber. Großer Dank wird den Mitgliedern der Forschungsgruppe Luftverkehr geschuldet, die wertvolle Informationen beigetragen haben, ohne die diese Studie nicht hätte entstehen können. / The aim of the study is to discuss five aspects of the German aviation system which are debated intensely in Germany. The first aspect is the problem of the capacity of airports. There are several airports with two runways. The question arose what is the capacity of these airports? Some wanted to add third ones to cope with future growth while others argued the capacity would be sufficient for the foreseeable future. This leads to the second aspect which covers the trends that dominate the further development of the German aviation markets. The latter will be shaped by the competition between various airlines and various airports. Especially important will be the new competition between old airports in Europe and new ones in Istanbul, Dubai or Abu Dhabi. Equally important is the question, how good forecasts of future growth of airports are (third aspect). Studies delivered by airports themselves show a systematic overestimation of their own growth. This leads to the fourth aspect, i.e. to the question of the economic situation of small and large airports in Germany. We have to ask, why there are so many small airports with losses. Last but not least the following topic has to be discussed: could more cooperation between large and small airports solve the difficult economic situation of the small ones without hindering the large ones? International examples are being analysed. The study concludes with a proposal for the further development of the German aviation system.

Jakten på orörd snö är en central del i offpistskidåkning. För att hjälpa allmänheten att ta säkra beslut i lavinterräng skriver lavinexperter varje år en lavinprognos. Lavinprognoser är en form av riskkommunikation vars syfte är att göra vinterturister och andra människor medvetna om vilka risker dem eventuellt kan utsättas för på berget. Den här rapportens syfte är att undersöka vinterturisternas förståelse för “the danger rating scale” och lavinprognoser. Samt för att se hur den påverkar deras risktagande och beslutsfattande i lavinterräng. För att besvara dessa forskningsfrågor har ett kvalitativt metodval använts i form av 8 semi-strukturerade intervjuer. Resultatet visar att “the danger rating scale” och lavinprognoser har ett stort inflytande på vinterturisternas risktagande och beslutsfattande i lavinterräng. Men att det finns en tveksamhet i tolkandet av skalan. / The hunt for untouched snow is a central part of off-piste skiing. To help the public make safe decisions in avalanche terrain, avalanche experts write an avalanche forecast every year. Avalanche forecasts are a form of risk communication whose purpose is to make winter tourists' and other people aware of the risks they may be exposed to on the mountain. The purpose of this report is to investigate winter tourists' understanding of "the danger rating scale" and avalanche forecasts. As well as to see how it affects their risk-taking and decision-making in avalanche terrain. To answer these research questions, a qualitative choice of method has been used in the form of 8 semi-structured interviews. The results show that "the danger rating scale" and avalanche forecasts have a great influence on winter tourists' risk-taking and decision-making in avalanche terrain. But that there is a doubt in the interpretation of the scale. / <p>2023-06-16</p>

Im vorliegenden Beitrag werden die prognostizierten Verformungen gemäß der Materialmodelle des fib Model Code 2010 sowie der DIN EN 1992-1-1:2011 realen Messdaten gegenübergestellt, die über einen Zeitraum von mehr als 12 Jahren an einer großen Talbrücke erfasst wurden. Die numerischen Berechnungen zeigen, dass sich die Stoffgesetze deutlich in ihrer Höhe und dem zeitlichen Verlauf der prognostizierten viskosen Betonverformungen unterscheiden. Die höchste Übereinstimmung mit den Messdaten wiesen die Stoffgesetze des EC 2 auf.

Inledning: Traditionell budget har fått mycket kritik under åren vilket har resulterat i att nya alternativa metoder har växt fram. Ett alternativ till den traditionella budgeten är rullande prognoser, vilket också har erhållit en del kritik. Det är vanligt att kombinera dessa metoder men däremot finns det inte mycket forskning om hur detta gör samt varför företag väljer att kombinera dessa styrmedel. Syfte: Syftet med denna studie är att skapa en förståelse för hur och varför ett företag styr sin verksamhet genom att använda en kombination av en traditionell budget och rullande prognoser. Metod: Studien utgår från en kvalitativ metod med ett abduktivt angreppssätt. Den empiriska datan har samlats in genom semistrukturerade intervjuer med respondenter med olika befattningar på företaget. Intervjuerna har även kompletterats med internt material som har tillhandahållits från fallföretaget. Slutsats: Fallföretaget använder sig av en traditionell budget och rullande prognoser som ett komplement till varandra. Företaget har synkat processerna vilket har gjort att två processer blir en. De använder styrmedlena till störst del till samma syften, däremot används de för olika tidsaspekter. Att kombinera dessa styrmedel har inte visat sig vara tidskrävande för företaget, vilket kan vara till följd av att de har en gemensam process för båda styrmedlena och för att de används för liknande syften. De orsaker som identifierades till att företaget använde sig av en kombination av styrmedlena är för att styrelsen vill det, de är vana vid det och för att de ska kunna erhålla en bättre kontroll över verksamheten. / Introduction: Traditional budgeting has received much criticism over the years, which has resulted in the emergence of new alternative methods. An alternative to the traditional budget is rolling forecasts, which have also received some criticism. It is common to combine these methods, but there is not much research on how this is done and why companies choose to combine these instruments. Purpose: The purpose of this study is to create an understanding of how and why a company manages its business by using a combination of a traditional budget and rolling forecasts. Method: The study is based on a qualitative method with an abductive approach. The empirical data has been collected through semi-structured interviews with respondents with different positions at the company The interviews have also been supplemented with internal material provided by the case company. Conclusion: The case company uses a traditional budget and rolling forecasts as a complement to each other. The company has synchronized the processes, which has made two processes one. They mostly use the instruments for the same purposes, however, they are used for different time aspects. Combining these instruments has not proved to be time consuming for the company, which may be because they have a common process for both instruments and because they are used for similar purposes. The company uses a combination of the instruments because the board wants it, they are used to it and because they want to obtain better control over the business.

Improved sales forecasts for individual products in retail stores can have a positive effect both environmentally and economically. Historically these forecasts have been done through a combination of statistical measurements and experience. However, with the increased computational power available in modern computers, there has been an interest in applying machine learning for this problem. The aim of this thesis was to utilize two years of sales data, yearly calendar events, and weather data to investigate which machine learning method could forecast sales the best. The investigated methods were XGBoost, ARIMAX, LSTM, and Facebook Prophet. Overall the XGBoost and LSTM models performed the best and had a lower mean absolute value and symmetric mean percentage absolute error compared to the other models. However, Facebook Prophet performed the best in regards to root mean squared error and mean absolute error during the holiday season, indicating that Facebook Prophet was the best model for the holidays. The LSTM model could however quickly adapt during the holiday season improved the performance. Furthermore, the inclusion of weather did not improve the models significantly, and in some cases, the results were worsened. Thus, the results are inconclusive but indicate that the best model is dependent on the time period and goal of the forecast. / Förbättrade försäljningsprognoser för individuella produkter inom detaljhandeln kan leda till både en miljömässig och ekonomisk förbättring. Historiskt sett har dessa utförts genom en kombination av statistiska metoder och erfarenhet. Med den ökade beräkningskraften hos dagens datorer har intresset för att applicera maskininlärning på dessa problem ökat. Målet med detta examensarbete är därför att undersöka vilken maskininlärningsmetod som kunde prognostisera försäljning bäst. De undersökta metoderna var XGBoost, ARIMAX, LSTM och Facebook Prophet. Generellt presterade XGBoost och LSTM modellerna bäst då dem hade ett lägre mean absolute value och symmetric mean percentage absolute error jämfört med de andra modellerna. Dock, gällande root mean squared error hade Facebook Prophet bättre resultat under högtider, vilket indikerade att Facebook Prophet var den bäst lämpade modellen för att förutspå försäljningen under högtider. Dock, kunde LSTM modellen snabbt anpassa sig och förbättrade estimeringarna. Inkluderingen av väderdata i modellerna resulterade inte i några markanta förbättringar och gav i vissa fall även försämringar. Övergripande, var resultaten tvetydiga men indikerar att den bästa modellen är beroende av prognosens tidsperiod och mål.

Das Kausalitaetskonzept von Granger und die Impuls-Antwort-Analyse sind zwei Konzepte, die haeufig verwendet werden, um kausale Beziehungen zwischen zwei Variablen in vektorautoregressiven (VAR) Modellen zu untersuchen. Wenn das VAR Modell mehr als zwei Variablen umfasst, besteht eine Erweiterung des Standard Granger Kausalitaetskonzepts darin, Kausalitaet an hoeheren Prognosehorizonten zu messen. Die Kausalitaetsbeziehungen unter diesem erweiterten Granger Kausalitaetskonzept werden mit denen bei Standard Granger Kausalitaet (Ein-Schritt-Prognose) und mit Kausalitaet im Sinne der Impuls-Antwort-Analyse verglichen. Es wird insbesondere dargestellt, inwiefern das erweiterte Granger Kausalitaetskonzept als Verallgemeinerung der letztgenannten Konzepte aufgefasst werden kann. Wenn Kausalitaet an Prognosehorizonten groesser als eins gemessen wird und das VAR Modell mehr als zwei Variablen umfasst, impliziert die Nullhypothese, dass eine Variable nicht kausal fuer eine andere Variable sei, nichtlineare Restriktionen auf die VAR Koeffizienten. (In nichtstationaeren VAR Modellen treten nichtlineare Restriktionen sogar schon unter dem Standard Granger Kausalitaetskonzept auf.) Aufgrund der speziellen Form der Restriktionen kann es vorkommen, dass die Standard Wald Statistik nicht mehr die uebliche, asymptotische Chiquadrat-Verteilung hat. Dieses Problem wird im allgemeinen in der Praxis ignoriert. Beispiel 4.1, Proposition 4.1 und Korollar 4.1 zeigen jedoch, dass dieses Problem nicht irrelevant ist. Zwei Loesungen werden in Proposition 5.1 und Proposition 5.2 in Form eines randomisierten Wald Tests sowie eines Wald Tests mit verallgemeinerter Inverse angeboten. In einer anschliessenden kleinen Simulationsstudie werden Groesse und Macht dieser modifizierten Wald Tests relativ zu der des Standard Wald Tests untersucht fuer verschiedene stationaere trivariate VAR(1)-Modelle. In einem kurzen Ueberblick werden zudem Vor- und Nachteile alternativer Testverfahren (Bootstrap, sequentielle Tests) zusammengefasst. / The concepts of standard Granger causality and impulse response analysis are often used to investigate causal relationships between variables in vector autoregressive (VAR) models. In VAR models with more than two variables, the concept of standard Granger causality can be extended by studying prediction improvement at forecast horizons greater than one. The causal relationships which arise under this extended Granger causality concept are compared to those arising under the standard Granger causality concept (one-step forecasts) and those arising with impulse-response-analysis. In particular, it is illustrated inhowfar the extended Granger causality concept can be understood as a generalization of the standard Granger causality concept and even of impulse-response-analysis. If causality is measured at forecast horizons greater than one, and if there are more than two variables in the VAR system, the null hypothesis that one variable is not causal for another variable implies restrictions which are a nonlinear function of the VAR coefficients. (In nonstationary VAR models, nonlinear restrictions already arise under the standard Granger causality concept.) Due to the special form of the restrictions, the standard Wald test may no longer have the usual asymptotic chisquare-distribution under the null hypothesis. This problem is commonly neglected in practice. However, Example 4.1, Corollary 4.1 and Proposition 4.1 of this thesis illustrate that this problem is not irrelevant. Furthermore, Propositions 5.1 and 5.2 show that this problem may be overcome, at least in stationary VAR models, by using either a randomized Wald test or a Wald test with generalized inverse. Size and Power of these modified Wald tests relative to the standard Wald test are investigated in a small simulation study for different stationary, trivariate VAR(1) models. Moreover, the pros and cons of alternative testing strategies (bootstrap, sequential tests) are summarized in a brief overview.

本研究主要是探討公司治理結構與資訊透明度之間的關聯性，並進一步檢視公司治理結構與資訊透明度對於權益資金成本及分析師盈餘預測之影響。 在本研究的實證分析結果中，發現企業的資訊透明度確實會受到公司治理結構因素的影響。在股權結構方面，當控制股東所持有的現金流量權比率增加時，由於外部股東的持股相對減少，在監督成本大於效益的情況下，對於公司資訊的需求會降低，因此，管理當局會降低資訊的揭露水準，導致資訊透明度下降。在董事會組成方面，本研究的發現支持財富侵佔假說的論點，當控制股東所掌握的董監事席次比率與現金流量權比率之偏離程度愈大時，會提高控制股東剝奪外部股東財富的動機，使得控制股東傾向利用控制力以影響被投資公司的資訊揭露政策，造成被投資公司的資訊透明度下降。除此之外，研究結果也支持監督假說的預期，即獨立董監事的設置，能有效發揮監督管理當局與制衡控制股東的功能，有助於提昇公司的資訊透明度。 在公司治理(公司治理結構與資訊透明度)對於權益資金成本的影響，本研究的實證結果發現企業之公司治理的良窳確實會影響外部投資人對於企業風險的評價，進而影響投資人所要求的必要報酬率(即企業的權益資金成本)。在公司治理結構方面，當控制股東的持股比率增加時，其與外部股東的目標會趨於一致，發生代理問題的風險會降低，投資人承擔較低的代理風險。因此，控制股東持股比率增加所傳達予投資人是一項有利的訊息，以致於投資人願意降低必要的投資報酬率，使得公司的權益資金成本降低。董監事持股質押的行為對於投資人而言，可能是一項風險的訊號，理性的投資人預期未來可能被董監事剝奪財富的風險，以致於要求的投資報酬率會提高，企業的權益資金成本會增加。 在公司治理(公司治理結構與資訊透明度)對於分析師預測的影響，本研究的實證結果發現企業之公司治理的良窳會影響企業資訊環境的品質，進而影響分析師預測誤差與離散性。在公司治理結構方面，當控制股東所掌握之投票權比率與現金流量權比率之偏離程度愈大時，會加深控制股東與外部股東之間的代理問題，降低財務報導的可靠性，因而導致分析師對於公司未來績效與前景的瞭解程度相對較低，分析師之間對於公司未來的盈餘並無一致的看法，即預測的離散性會增加，但是並不影響預測的誤差；當控制股東所掌握之董監事席次比率與現金流量權比率的偏離程度愈大時，會加深控制股東與外部股東之間的利益不一致，使得控制股東有誘因剝奪外部股東的權益，操縱公司的會計資訊，使得會計資訊的可靠性降低，以致於分析師預測未來盈餘所面臨的不確定性會愈大，預測誤差與離散性也會愈高。 關鍵詞：公司治理結構；資訊透明度；權益資金成本；分析師預測；控制股東；獨立董監事 / This study investigates the relationship between corporate governance structure and transparency, which in turn examines the effect of corporate governance structure and transparency on the cost of equity capital and the analyst’s earnings forecasts including forecast error and forecast dispersion. On the relationship between corporate governance structure and transparency, research findings of this study can be summarized as follows. First, the transparency is lower with higher cash flow rights owned by controlled stockholder. Second, the transparency is lower with higher divergence between the control rights, which are numbers of directors and supervisors, and cash flow rights controlled by controlled stockholder. Finally, the transparency is higher with higher percentage of independent directors and supervisors. On the effect of corporate governance structure and transparency on cost of equity capital, research findings of this study can be summarized as follows. First, the cost of equity capital is lower with higher cash flow rights owned by controlled stockholder. Second, the cost of equity capital is higher with higher percentage of cash flow rights pledged by directors and supervisors. On the effect of corporate governance structure and transparency on analyst’s forecasts, research findings of this study can be summarized as follows. First, the forecast dispersion is higher with higher divergence between voting rights and cash flow rights controlled by controlled stockholder. Second, the forecast error and dispersion are higher with higher divergence between the control rights, which are numbers of directors and supervisors, and cash flow rights controlled by controlled stockholder. Keywords: Corporate governance structure；Transparency；Cost of equity capital；Analyst’s forecasts；Controlled stockholder；Independent directors and supervisors.

The essence of the first part of this work (chapters 1, 2 and 3) lies in the brief introduction to the support for small and medium sized enterprises. After that follows presentation of key institutions (ministries, agencies, etc.) helpful during the process of obtaining support from national programmes. Except of basic services performed by given institutions, useful web links are also included. In the same way, particular European support programmes are presented. In the framework of second part (chapters 4, 5 and 6), backward bases are exemplified on the practical example of the company Strojírny Podzimek, Ltd. and their experiences. That case shows, what does the making use of the national support programmes mean practically. Likewise, business support from EU funds is described, namely on the case of company Frýdlantské strojírny Rasl a syn, Inc. Third part of this thesis (chapters 7 and 8) is making us familiar with resuming statistics about the amount of subsidies drawn from national programmes and from the EU funds. In both cases, brief forecasts of future development and approximate amounts of unused funds are stated.