In tests performed for the period 1897 to 1958, Milton Friedman and David Meiselman found that income velocity of circulation of money was consistently more stable than the investment multiplier except during the early years of the Great Depression. This paper replicates their test for the period 1959 to 1986. The results for this later period are consistent with the Friedman-Meiselman findings. The stock of money remains the more stable and consistent influence on consumption; autonomous expenditures do not influence consumption during any sub-period studied. The money stock remains far more critical than autonomous expenditures in explaining movements in consumption. The replication consists of a series of regression equations for consumption expenditures as a function of the stock of money and of autonomous expenditures. Data in both nominal and real terms are used. Data are lagged five quarters to test the effect on consumption. / Master of Arts

Signal generation at high frequency has become increasingly important in numerous wireline and wireless applications. In many gigahertz and millimeter-wave frequency ranges, conventional frequency generation techniques have encountered several design challenges in terms of frequency tuning range, phase noise, and power consumption. Recently, injection locking has been a popular technique to solve these design challenges for frequency generation. However, the narrow locking range of the injection locking techniques limits their use. Furthermore, they suffer from significant reference spur issues. This dissertation presents novel frequency generation techniques based on envelope detection for low-phase-noise signal generation using injection-locked frequency multipliers (ILFMs). Several calibration techniques using envelope detection are introduced to solve conventional problems in injection locking. The proposed topologies are demonstrated with 0.13um CMOS technology for the following injection-locked frequency generators. First, a mixed-mode injection-frequency locked loop (IFLL) is presented for calibrating locking range and phase noise of an injection-locked oscillator (ILO). The IFLL autonomously tracks the injection frequency by processing the AM modulated envelope signal bearing a frequency difference between injection frequency and ILO free-running frequency in digital feedback. Second, a quadrature injection-locked frequency tripler using third-harmonic phase shifters is proposed. Two capacitively-degenerated differential pairs are utilized for quadrature injection signals, thereby increasing injection-locking range and reducing phase error. Next, an injection-locked clock multiplier using an envelope-based frequency tracking loop is presented for a low phase noise signal and low reference spur. In the proposed technique, an envelope detector constantly monitors the VCO's output waveform distortion caused by frequency difference between the VCO frequency and reference frequency. Therefore, the proposed techniques can compensate for frequency variation of the VCO due to PVT variations. Finally, this dissertation presents a subharmonically injection-locked PLL (SILPLL), which is cascaded with a quadrature ILO. The proposed SILPLL adopts an envelope-detection based injection-timing calibration for synchronous reference pulse injection into a VCO. With one of the largest frequency division ratios (N=80) reported so far, the SILPLL can achieve low RMS jitter and reference spur. / Ph. D.

Composée de deux parties et de quatre chapitres dans chaque partie, la première partie de la thèse examine la théorie du profit par la consommation nette (théorie-Cn) de George Reisman. La théorie-Cn fournit une grande partie du cadre analytique de Reisman, ainsi que des conclusions normatives sur la justice et la stabilité d'une économie capitaliste de marché libre. Nous examinons la prétention de cette synthèse à réconcilier l'approche classique et la dynamique de phénomènes généraux comme le profit et les salaires, la consommation et l'épargne, l'argent et le crédit. La formulation de cette théorie limite son attention aux coûts des entreprises (monétaire) et les conçoit comme dérivé des dépenses antérieures des entreprises pour des facteurs (main-d'oeuvre et capital), qui à leur tour sont financées par l'épargne. Contrairement à la théorie keynésienne, ici la consommation supplémentaire n'est ni suffisante ni nécessaire pour créer une demande supplémentaire de facteurs : elle y est antinomique. Des économies supplémentaires et des dépenses de production sont nécessaires, mais non suffisantes, pour qu'il y ait augmentation équivalente de la demande de facteurs de production. Et puisque les ventes englobent à la fois la demande de produits de consommation et la demande de facteurs de production des entreprises, les coûts ont tendance à être en retard sur les ventes. La différence qui en résulte entre les ventes et les coûts est égale au montant (global) et nous mène au taux de profit (moyen) gagné par les entreprises. / Consisting of two parts and four chapters in each part, the dissertation, in the first part, sets forth and reviews the logical substance of George Reisman's netconsumption theory of profit (nc-theory). The nc-theory provides much of both Reisman's overall analytical framework as well as normative conclusions about the justice and stability of a free-market, capitalist economy. We examine the synthesis' claim to have reconciled the classical approach with the Austrian/neoclassical emphasis of the primacy of behavioral foundations of all economic phenomena. The theory's formula restricts its attention to business (money) costs and conceives of them as derivative of prior business expenditure for factors (labor and capital goods), which in turn is financed out of saving. In contrast to Keynesian economic where spending of any kind is sufficient to finance the demand for input factors, in the nc-theory additional consumption is neither sufficient nor necessary to create additional factor demand; indeed, it is positively antithetical to it. Additional saving and productive expenditure are a necessary, though not sufficient, condition for an equivalent increase in demand for input factors. And since sales encompass both the demand for consumers' goods as well as business' demand for factors while costs are a function of productive expenditure by business only, costs tend to lag behind sales. The resultant difference between sales and costs equals (aggregate) amount and provides the means to arrive at (average) rate of profit earned by business in total.

On oppose traditionnellement les emplois industriels et les emplois de services. L’interpénétration croissante de l’industrie et des services rend cependant cette distinction de plus en plus inopérante. À l’heure de la globalisation, il apparaît en revanche pertinent de distinguer les emplois exposés à la concurrence internationale de ceux qui en sont abrités, que l’on trouve à la fois dans l’industrie et dans les services. Cette thèse analyse dans un premier temps les évolutions et les caractéristiques des emplois exposés et abrités en France. Quels sont les emplois exposés et abrités ? Se distinguent-ils en termes de qualifications, salaires, évolutions de la productivité ? Comment sont-ils répartis sur le territoire ? Elle étudie ensuite les interdépendances entre ces deux catégories d’emplois, en évaluant empiriquement l’effet d’entraînement de l’emploi exposé sur l’emploi abrité au niveau des zones d’emploi de France métropolitaine. L’étude s’intéresse enfin à un échantillon de salariés licenciés suite à la fermeture d’un site de production. Elle tente de déterminer si le risque de licenciement, et les coûts qui lui sont associés, sont plus élevés dans le secteur exposé que dans le secteur abrité. / The distinction between manufacturing and service jobs has lost some of its relevance due to the growing interpenetration between industrial and service activities. On the other hand, globalization has made it increasingly necessary to distinguish between jobs exposed to international competition (tradable jobs) and those not exposed to it (non-tradable jobs), found in primary, secondary and tertiary sectors. This thesis begins by analyzing the developments and characteristics of tradable and non-tradable employment in France. Which jobs are tradable and which are non-tradable? Are they different in terms of skills, wages, and productivity? How are they distributed around the country? It then studies the interdependencies between these two categories of employment, making an empirical evaluation of the local multiplier effect of tradable jobs on non-tradable jobs in French local labor markets. Lastly, the thesis focuses on workers laid off due to firm closure. It sets out to determine whether the risk of job displacement, and the associated costs, are higher in the tradable sector than in the non-tradable sector.

[pt] Essa tese considera um modelo não linear para se obter previsões de curto prazo de carga de energia elétrica. O modelo combina um modelo de múltiplos regimes auto-regressivo com transição suave com um periódico auto-regressivo criando o modelo de múltiplos regimes periódico com transição suave (STPAR). Um método de construção do modelo é desenvolvido com métodos estatísticos simples e um teste de linearidade contra a hipótese de modelo periódico autoregressivo com transição suave. Outros dois destes foram elaborados para se avaliar o modelo estimado: um teste de Multiplicador de Lagrange (LM) para a hipótese de auto-correlação serial dos resíduos e outro teste LM para a hipótese de não linearidade remanescente. Um experimento de Monte Carlo foi implementado para avaliar a performance dos testes propostos. Estimação por mínimos quadrados não lineares é considerado. Finalmente, dados de carga de energia elétrica do estado de New South Wales na Austrália são apresentados e foram usados como exemplo real. Outros modelos foram utilizados para comparar a performance do modelo. / [en] This thesis considers a non linear approach to obtain short term forecast for electricity load. The model combines a smooth transition autoregressive process with a periodic autoregressive time series model, creating the Smooth Transition Periodic Autoregressive (STPAR) model. A model-building procedure is developed and a linearity test against smooth transition periodic auto-regressive is proposed. Other two tests were created to evaluate the model: a Lagrange multiplier (LM) test for the hypothesis of no error autocorrelation and LM-type test for the hypothesis of no remaining non-linearity. A Monte Carlo experiment was implemented to evaluate the performance of the proposed tests. Estimation by nonlinear least squares is considered. Finally, load data from New South Wales State in Australia`s electricity retail market is presented and will be used as a real example. Other models were used to compare the performance of the proposes model.

O presente trabalho tem o objetivo de primariamente estudar o impacto da política fiscal brasileira sobre a atividade econômica via multiplicadores fiscais desagregados e secundariamente verificar se o comportamento da política fiscal é anticíclico, acíclico ou pró-cíclico. Para tanto, estima com técnicas bayesianas um modelo DSGE com um rico arcabouço de instrumentos fiscais de gastos e tributos desagregados em consumo público, investimento público, transferências e alíquotas tributárias sobre o consumo, a renda do trabalho e a renda do capital. Em especial, usa duas bases de dados distintas de alíquotas efetivas, que são os dados tributários que representam o mais fidedignamente possível as alíquotas do modelo e que ainda não foram utilizadas na literatura nacional. Os resultados mostram que, em todos os horizontes de tempo, o multiplicador do investimento público é o maior, enquanto o das transferências é o menor, e que a política fiscal brasileira é, em geral, pró-cíclica, contribuindo para amplificar o ciclo econômico. Assim, os multiplicadores indicam que, sob a perspectiva da preservação da atividade econômica, um ajuste fiscal deveria evitar cortes de investimento público, bem como dão respaldo à interpretação de que a diminuição da eficácia da política fiscal em 2010-11 se deveu à perda de espaço do investimento público na composição relativa dos estímulos fiscais. Um dos exercícios de sensibilidade revela que os multiplicadores fiscais são maiores quando a política fiscal é pró-cíclica, lançando luz sobre a questão não explorada na literatura do efeito do comportamento fiscal (anticíclico, acíclico ou pró-cíclico) sobre os multiplicadores fiscais e indicando que os estudos de economias caracterizadas por políticas fiscais pró-cíclicas, como a brasileira, que não levam em conta esse comportamento fiscal tendem a subestimar os multiplicadores. Ademais, o modelo evidencia quais são os instrumentos fiscais que mais ajudam a estabilizar a dívida pública e como o comportamento pró-cíclico magnifica os efeitos da política fiscal brasileira às expensas de uma dívida pública crescente, que posteriormente para ser estabilizada exige um arrocho fiscal duradouro que afeta negativamente o produto. Também revela que os choques fiscais são responsáveis por explicar uma parcela relevante da variação do crescimento do produto, razão superávit primário-produto e razão dívida pública-produto. / The present work aims to primarily study the Brazilian fiscal policy impact on the economic activity via disaggregated fiscal multipliers and secondarily verify if the fiscal policy behavior is anticyclical, acyclical or procyclical. To do so, it estimates with Bayesian techniques a DSGE model with a rich fiscal toolkit of expenditures and taxes disaggregated into public consumption, public investment, transfers and tax rates on consumption, labor income and capital income. Specially, it uses two different databases of effective tax rates, which are the tax data that represent the model\'s tax rates in the most reliable way and have not yet been used in the national literature. The results show that, in all the time horizons, the public investment multiplier is the greatest, while the transfers one is the smallest, and that the Brazilian fiscal policy is, in general, procyclical, contributing to amplify the business cycle. Thus, the multipliers indicate that, from the perspective of the economic activity preservation, a fiscal adjustment should avoid cuts in public investment, as well as support the interpretation that the fiscal policy efficacy decrease in 2010-11 was due to the public investment loss of space in the relative composition of the fiscal stimuli. One of the sensibility exercises reveal that the fiscal multipliers are higher when the fiscal policy is procyclical, shedding light on the question not explored in the literature of the effect of the fiscal behavior (anticyclical, acyclical or procyclical) on the fiscal multipliers and pointing out that studies about economies characterized by procyclical fiscal policies, like the Brazilian one, that do not take into account this fiscal behavior tend to underestimate the multipliers. Furthermore, the model highlights which are the fiscal instruments that help the most to stabilize the public debt and how the procyclical behavior magnifies the effects of the Brazilian fiscal policy at the expense of a rising public debt, which later to be stabilized requires an enduring fiscal tightening which affects negatively the output. It also reveals that the fiscal shocks are responsible for explaining a relevant fraction of the variability in the output growth, primary surplus-output ratio and public debt-output ratio.

The problem of weak economic development in Nigeria despite a substantial inflow of revenues from oil exports especially from the early 1970s and other subsequent periods is an important issue to examine. This outcome presents a number of problems for any government regime in Nigeria seeking to provide solutions to enable the country to escape the adverse effects of natural resource wealth. At present, the Nigerian government is still struggling to find solutions to tackle the deteriorating state of affairs, particularly in terms of unemployment, rising food prices and internal security. The main aim of this study is to help understand the dynamic relationship between natural resource wealth and economic development. This research study analyses the trajectory of economic and political development in Nigeria over the period 1960 to 2010. This study employs historical political economy and empirical approaches in examining the relationship between oil wealth and economic development. This method distinguishes the study from others carried out in the literature, particularly from those on Nigeria where the common approach in this strand has been to examine the relationship using economic theories alone. The rationale for the approach employed in this study is that Nigeria has its own unique development in terms of politics, which has been influenced by the social structure and colonial history of the country and thus the impact of oil on economic growth should be investigated separately using a historical and empirical approach so as to capture time trend interactions between societal issues, politics and economic outcomes. First, this study examined the relationship between oil and economic performance using social, political and economic factors such as ethnic and regional differences, political instability, changes in ownership structure of the oil sector and government expenditure, which is largely financed by oil revenues. Next, the research empirically examined the impact of these factors on economic sectors such as agriculture and manufacturing. Afterwards, it analyses the impact of political and economic events in the preceding periods on the current or subsequent period that coincided with a return to democratic rule on major economic sectors. In general, the results show that the period, which marked a transition to a stable political regime, has no impact on economic performance from 1999 - 2010. Implicitly, this means that democracy in isolation is not a process that accompanies economic development and that a strong policy which could foster national unity and overcome regional and ethnic differences is needed. In order to promote sound economic development this policy should be dynamic, specific and directed to the promotion of a national agenda that will target and benefit important sectors such as agriculture and manufacturing through creating forward and backward linkages in a multiplier effect.

Made available in DSpace on 2016-08-10T10:37:26Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 Vera Lucia Abrantes DOsvualdo.pdf: 6808820 bytes, checksum: 7221612c4eab8cbd1f5c04114d005aaa (MD5) Previous issue date: 2008-12-16 / This research aims to discuss and reflect the reintroduction of a course of training in Heritage Education for teachers of the Municipal Network for Education in the municipality of Goiania. In 2004, was the first initiative, where 49 teachers participated in a course of Education Sheets, but this project, which had a larger (than the course itself), not developed. This work arose from a course of Education Asset held in a municipal school. This course formou 11 educators who have become multipliers in a class of elementary school selected. The viability of this project is based on two benchmarks: a work of Heritage Education held in a municipal school of Goiania, which served as reference for structuring this project, a qualitative analysis conducted with teachers who attended the first course of Education Sheet ( 2004), about the exploitation of that event and its extension to his academic activities. / A presente pesquisa visa a discutir e refletir a reimplantação de um curso de capacitação em Educação Patrimonial para os professores da Rede Municipal de Educação do município de Goiânia. No ano de 2004, ocorreu a primeira iniciativa, quando 49 educadores participaram de um curso de Educação Patrimonial, porém esse projeto, que possuía uma dimensão maior (além do curso em si), não se desenvolveu. O presente trabalho surgiu a partir de um curso de Educação Patrimonial realizado em uma escola municipal. Tal curso formou 11 educadores que se tornaram multiplicadores em uma turma do Ensino Fundamental selecionada. A viabilidade do presente projeto se fundamenta em dois referenciais: um trabalho de Educação Patrimonial realizado em uma escola municipal de Goiânia, que serviu de referência para a estruturação desse projeto; uma análise qualitativa realizada com os professores que participaram do primeiro curso de Educação Patrimonial (2004), acerca do aproveitamento daquele evento e de sua extensão às suas atividades acadêmicas.

[pt] Este trabalho utiliza uma reforma de crédito quase-experimental no Brasil para entender os efeitos da liberalização financeira e os canais através dos quais ela promove crescimento econômico. Utiliza-se dados em painel de todos os 5.500 municípios brasileiros e explora-se questões legais que envolvem essa política para quantificar os impactos macroeconômicos da eliminação de barreiras ao crédito em uma economia aberta. A reforma parece aumentar o montante total emprestado, além de estimular outros serviços bancários. Os achados indicam ainda um aumento substancial nos salários e nos lucros das firmas, e a redução do setor informal. Ademais, a análise sugere a presença de efeitos dinâmicos importantes e que os impactos sejam mais intensos em economias mais abertas, mais ricas, menos agrícolas e mais financeiramente desenvolvidas. / [en] This work uses a quasi-experimental credit reform in Brazil to understand the effects of financial liberalization and the channels through which it promotes economic growth. We use panel data for all 5,500 Brazilian municipalities and exploit legal issues underlying the policy in order to quantify the macroeconomic impacts of eliminating credit barriers in an open economy. The reform appears to rise total borrowing, besides stimulating other banking services. Our findings also indicate substantial increases in wages and business profits, and the reduction of the informal sector. Furthermore, the analysis suggests the presence of important dynamic effects and that impacts are greater in more opened, wealthier, less rural and more financially developed economies.

Made available in DSpace on 2016-04-28T20:56:41Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 Igor Alvares Enkim.pdf: 830984 bytes, checksum: c6294c4784852d39e93e94c3a74e03c0 (MD5) Previous issue date: 2013-10-24 / Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior / The objective of this research was to comprehend the meanings of a multiplier s course for a group of educators of a low income community in São Paulo. The participants lived and worked in the community. The course aimed for working with families and was developed with their participation. This is a qualitative investigation, oriented by Meaning Analysis purposed by Dulce Critelli and the dialogical precepts of Paulo Freire. The phenomenon was approached through the reflexive interview, as it is purposed by Heloísa Szymanski. In this conception, the participants represent an active role in the constitution of knowledge. Seven individual interviews were performed as well a collective devolution of the results. Four constellations were created: involvement with the course, caring about the community, experiencing the course and being a multiplier. The speeches of the participants contemplate multiple meanings that were shaped along the two year course. Those meanings spanned since professional improvement and better caring of children, through wipe the other s problems, boost life quality, until listening the other and promote their autonomy. As the participants allowed themselves to be in the other s presence as they were presented, the course s meanings were transformed and new educational possibilities came to light, through the affection that took place. The dialogical mode came to guide them, no more doing for the other, but with him, aiming to construct their autonomy together / Objetivou-se nesta pesquisa compreender o sentido de uma formação de multiplicadores para um grupo de educadores de uma comunidade de baixa renda da cidade de São Paulo. Os participantes viviam e trabalhavam na comunidade, tendo o curso, para o trabalho com famílias, sido construído com sua participação. Trata-se de uma investigação qualitativa, de orientação fenomenológica, tendo como referências a Analítica do Sentido proposta por Dulce Critelli, e os preceitos dialógicos de Paulo Freire. Aproximou-se do fenômeno através da entrevista reflexiva, conforme proposta por Heloísa Szymanski, de modo que os participantes compõem parte ativa na constituição do conhecimento. Foram realizadas sete entrevistas individuais e uma devolutiva coletiva. Foram criadas quatro constelações a partir dos resultados: envolvimento com a formação, cuidando da comunidade, vivenciando a formação e sendo multiplicador. Os discursos dos participantes contemplam múltiplos sentidos para o curso que se metamorfosearam ao longo dos dois anos de formação. Estes sentidos compreendiam desde o aprimoramento profissional, cuidar melhor de crianças, passando por eliminar os problemas do outro, gerar qualidade de vida, até o ouvir o outro e promover autonomia. Os sentidos se transformaram, conforme os participantes permitiram-se estar com o outro conforme este se apresentava, sensibilizando-se para novas possibilidades de educar. O modo dialógico passou a orienta-los, não mais fazendo para o outro, mas com ele, visando co-construir sua autonomia