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Med en växande efterfråga efter hållbarhet är förhållandet mellan environmental, social & governance (ESG) och företagsprestanda ofta föremål för forskning. Forskningen om detta ämne har dock hittills inte varit entydig. Orsakerna till detta är olika metoder som används och snäva områden som endast representerar det specifika sammanhanget. Dessutom har förhållandet mellan ESG och företagens resultat hittills mestadels genomförts med fokus på rent finansiella mått, vilket gör att marknadsvärden i viss mån fortfarande är outforskade. Syftet med denna studie är att undersöka förhållandet mellan ESG och marknadsvärde (mätt med Tobin’s Q) inom kontexten av den skandinaviska industrisektorn. Med olika perspektiv från "shareholder theory”, "stakeholder theory” och från rationella eller etiska investerare, säger studiens hypoteser att det bör finnas ett signifikant positivt samband mellan ett företags ESG betyg och dess marknadsvärde, och att det bör finnas ett signifikant negativt samband mellan ett företags ESG risk och dess marknadsvärde. Genom en kvantitativ metod har tvärsnittsdata samlats in och införlivats i en multipel regressionsmodell med flera variabler. Studiens resultat tyder på att det inte finns något signifikant samband (positivt eller negativt) mellan ESG och marknadsvärde. Studien förkastar därav nollhypoteserna och således förklaringsförmågan hos de ovan nämnda teorierna. Det konkluderas att den skandinaviska marknaden troligen består av både rationella och etiska investerare, vilket neutraliserar den effekt som ett företags ESG värde har på dess marknadsvärde. Resultatet föreslår också att företag inom den skandinaviska industrisektorn kan implementera ESG utan att det missgynnar dess marknadsvärdering. / With a growing demand for sustainability, the relationship between environmental, social & governance (ESG) and corporate performance is frequently occuring in research. However, research on this topic has as of now been inconclusive. The reasons for this are the different methodologies used and the narrow scopes that represent the specific context only. Furthermore, the relationship between ESG and corporate performance has mostly been conducted with a focus on strict financial metrics, leaving the perspective of market value to a certain degree still unexplored. This paper aims to examine the relationship between ESG and market value (measured by Tobin’s Q), in the context of the Scandinavian industrial sector. With different perspectives from Shareholder theory, Stakeholder theory and those from a rational or ethical investor, this study’s hypotheses states that there should exist a significant positive relationship between a company’s ESG score and their market value, and accordingly a significant negative relationship between a company’s ESG risk and their market value. Through a quantitative approach, cross-sectional data have been collected and incorporated in a multiple regression model with several variables. Our results suggest that no significant relationship (positive or negative) exists between ESG and market value. We therefore reject the null hypotheses and consequently the explanatory power of the above-mentioned theories as well. It is concluded that the Scandinavian market probably consists of both rational and ethical investors, neutralizing the effect a company’s ESG value has on its market value. The results further indicate that companies within the Scandinavian industrial sector might be able to incorporate ESG to improve their corporate behavior, with no negative market value effects.

Studying whether new trading rules provide higher returns than the buy-and-hold strategy is relevant for both finance theory and the asset management field. In this thesis, we examine the profitability of the newly proposed trading strategy based on the concept of price overreaction on eight developed stock indices. In comparison to other studies, we extend a definition of price overreaction with an inclusion of a minimum volatility threshold. Based on the Ordinary Least Squares model, we find that a volatility condition significantly improves the predictability of return reversals after positive price overreaction. For comparison with the buy-and-hold, we use Hansen's Superior Predictive Ability test that corrects the data snooping bias. Despite better annualised returns during in-sample and out-of-sample periods, the results show that the proposed strategy is not superior to the buy-and-hold at any stock index due to heavy reliance on the predictions of the largest declines. Nevertheless, we confirm the effect of decoupling (flight to quality) that can positively affect our strategy, but only when we do not take into account transaction costs. In the end, we summarize behavioural concepts that lie behind our strategy as the overreaction and decoupling are mostly justified with cognitive biases.

[pt] A literatura existente sobre os efeitos da Covid nos retornos das ações concentra-se em mudanças endógenas na tolerância ao risco e na modelagem de eventos raros. Até agora, essas tentativas não foram capazes de corresponder aos dados. Neste artigo, proponho uma abordagem alternativa para explicar os efeitos da Covid nos retornos de ativos em todo o mundo: separar os efeitos de longo prazo dos efeitos de curto prazo. Intuitivamente, os efeitos de longo prazo da Covid incluem disrupções nas cadeias produtivas e padrões educacionais, que, concebivelmente, levarão tempo para serem eliminados. Exatamente como acontece com os choques persistentes dos modelos de risco de longo prazo! Um modelo que permite flutuações de curto prazo e risco de longo prazo mostra que choques persistentes desempenham um papel na explicação dos retornos do mercado de ações e das taxas de câmbio em um período de tempo que começa em Janeiro de 2018 e termina em Novembro de 2021. / [en] The existing literature on the effects of Covid on stock returns focuses on endogenous changes in risk tolerance and on the modeling of rare events. So far, these attempts have not been able to match the data. In this paper, I propose an alternative approach to explaining the Covid effects on stock returns worldwide: disentangling the long-run effects from the short-run effects. Intuitively, Covid s long-run effects include disruptions of supply chains and educational patterns, which, conceivably, will take time to phase out. Exactly as it happens with the persistent shocks of long-run risks models! A model that allows for short-run fluctuations and long-run risk shows that persistent shocks play a role in explaining stock market returns and exchange rates in a time span that starts in January 2018 and ends in November 2021.

Bakgrund: Det finns en mängd olika investeringsstrategier som en investerare kan applicera för att genera avkastning på börsen. Två av de vanligaste strategierna är värdestrategin och tillväxtstrategin, vilket är två investeringsstrategier som länge varit populära och vars historiska avkastning ofta ställs emot varandra och diskuteras av investerare.  Syfte: Syftet med denna studie är att undersöka vilken av de två investeringsstrategierna värdestrategi och tillväxtstrategi som genererat högst riskjusterad avkastning under tidsperioden 2012–2021. Studiens delsyfte är att undersöka hur den ekonomiska konjunkturen samt marknadssentiment påverkar strategiernas avkastning på aktiemarknaden.  Metod: För att uppfylla studiens syfte har en kvantitativ metod med en deduktiv ansats tillämpats. Två portföljer har konstruerats med en årlig rebalansering utifrån de uppsatta kriterierna för värde- respektive tillväxtbolag. De två portföljerna sattes samman utifrån författarnas definitioner av värdebolag och tillväxtbolag genom att studera bolagens P/E, EV/S- och P/BV-multiplar. Utöver detta har tre multipla regressionsmodeller genomförts för att undersöka huruvida de två portföljernas avkastning kan förklaras av förändringar i marknadssentiment och den ekonomiska konjunkturen.  Resultat och kunskapsbidrag: Studiens resultat visar att tillväxtportföljen generade en högre riskjusterad avkastning än värdeportföljen under tidsperioden 2012-01-01 2021- 12-31. Marknadssentiment uppvisar ett signifikant negativt samband till avkastningen i båda portföljerna för hela studiens tidsperiod, medan konjunkturen som oberoende variabel inte uppvisar något signifikant samband. Studien bidrar med relevant kunskap inom aktiehandel på den svenska marknaden. De strategier som undersöks har länge studerats på andra marknader internationellt, medan denna studie fokuserat på den svenska marknaden under en mer aktuell tidsperiod. / Background: There are many different investment strategies that can be applied by an investor to generate returns on the stock market. Two of the most common strategies that have been applied by investors for a long time are the value strategy and the growth strategy. These strategies are frequently discussed and are commonly compared to each other when it comes to historical performance.  Purpose: The purpose of this study is to examine which one of the two investment strategies has yielded the highest risk-adjusted return during the period 2012–2021. The sub-purpose of the study is to examine how the economic cycle and market sentiment relates to the returns of the strategic portfolios on the stock market.  Method: To achieve the purpose, a quantitative method with a deductive approach has been applied. Two portfolios have been constructed based on specific criteria set up for each strategy to reflect the author’s definitions of value stocks and growth stocks. The two portfolios were rebalanced every year and were constructed by studying the P/E-, EV/S- and P/BV-multiples of the companies. In addition, three multi-regression models were implemented to examine how the returns of the two portfolios interact with changes in market sentiment and the economic cycle.  Results: The results of the study show that the growth portfolio yielded a higher risk- adjusted return than the value portfolio during the period 2012-01-01 - 2021-12-31. The market sentiment has a significant negative correlation to the returns in both portfolios, whereas the economic cycle does not exhibit any significant correlations to the portfolio returns. The results of the study contribute knowledge in stock investing on the Swedish market. The strategies examined have been studied historically on international markets, whereas this study has focused on the Swedish market and a more recent period.

Macroeconomics constitute a central part of fundamental analysis of stock markets and consequently the relationship between macroeconomic variables and stock markets is far from questioned. However, there is no general consensus regarding neither the extent of this relationship nor whether the relationship varies amongst industries. The aim of this thesis is therefore to determine the macroeconomic variables most important in explaining variations in stock return within two separate industries and furthermore the share of these variations solely accounted for by macroeconomic variables. To this end, a multiple linear regression approach is used and Nasdaq indexes OMX Stockholm Industrial Goods & Services and OMX Stockholm Banks are used as proxies for the two selected industries. The final result of this analysis is that the variables repo rate, SEK/EUR exchange rate, consumer expectations, oil price, GDP, money supply and inflation are statistically significant in explaining stock return within industrial goods and services whilst SEK/USD exchange rate, SEK/EUR exchange rate, oil price, GDP, money supply and inflation are statistically significant in explaining stock return within the banking industry. The analysis of the extent of the impact of these variables on stock return is, however, deemed inconclusive due to time dependencies amongst the variables. / Makroekonomi utgör en central del av fundamental analys av aktiemarknaden och följaktligen är förhållandet mellan makroekonomiska variabler och aktiemarknaden snarare väl etablerat än ifrågasatt. Emellertid saknas rådande konsensus om såväl omfattningen av detta förhållande som huruvida förhållandet skiljer sig mellan olika branscher. Syftet med detta kandidatexamensarbete är därför att fastställa de makroekonomiska variabler som är mest avgörande för variationen i aktieavkastning inom två skilda branscher samt andelen av dessa variationer som kan hänföras till just makroekonomiska variabler. I detta syfte tillämpas en multipel linjär regression och två Nasdaqindex - OMX Stockholm Industrial Goods & Services samt OMX Stockholm Banks - tillåts approximera de två utvalda branscherna. Det slutgiltiga resultatet av denna analys är att variablerna reporänta, växelkurs SEK/EUR, konsumentförväntningar, oljepris, BNP, penningmängd och inflation är statistiskt signifikanta för aktieavkastning inom industrin, medan växelkurs SEK/EUR samt SEK/USD, oljepris, BNP, penningmängd och inflation är statistiskt signifikanta för aktieavkastning inom bankbranschen. Analysen av omfattningen av dessa makroekonomiska variablers påverkan på aktieavkastning når emellertid ingen slutsats, vilket anses kunna hänföras till tidsberoende hos variablerna.

This paper discusses the possibilities of predicting changes in stock pricing at a high frequency applying a multi-level neural network without the use of recurrent neurons or any other time series analysis, as suggested in a paper byChen et al. [2017]. The paper tries to adapt the model presented in a paper by Chen et al. [2017] by making the network deeper, feeding it data of higher resolution and changing the activation functions. While the resulting accuracy is not as high as other models, this paper might prove useful for those interested in further developing neural networks using data with high resolution and to the fintech business as a whole.

This paper evaluates the ability of single and multi-ratio investment strategies, such as P/E, P/B, Magic Formula and Piotroski F-score, to generate excess returns and positive alpha values on the Stockholm Stock Market. Performances of the strategies tested are compared to the Stockholm Stock Market as a whole, also known as the index “OMXSPI”. In this paper, three single-ratio strategies are investigated along with three multi-ratio strategies, chosen on the basis of popularity among private investors, according to our observations. We also compare these strategies’ returns to the returns of the ten best performing funds, over the last ten years, found on SEB’s and Handelsbanken’s fund lists. We find that both multi and single-ratio strategies generated alpha values and that single-ratio strategies performed well, relative to multi-ratio strategies, considering their simplicity. The current portfolio composition from screening stocks based on low P/E, P/B and high dividend yield alone are also associated with less risk, expressed in volatility, than portfolios that would be composed based on the multi-ratio methods. We even find that one of the more complex strategies, Graham Screener, underperformed single-ratio strategies, when comparing yearly alpha values over 15 and 17 years, respectively. The funds’ alpha values are also very poor compared to both single and multi-ratio strategies considering the managers’ likely investment experience and complex investment systems. In sum, our empirical data suggests that excess returns were indeed attainable during the investigated time-periods by following a rule-based investing philosophy in conjunction with single or multi-ratio strategies, and unless the investor has sublime experience and knowledge, he or she is probably better off using this type of investing rather than making investment decisions in a discretionary manner.We also conclude that the Stockholm Stock Market probably suffered from lower market efficiency, from the perspective of the Efficient Market Hypothesis, and lower screening abilities and tools, such as Börsdata, among investors in the beginning of the testing periods, which could be one reason as to why these ratio strategies worked as well as they did. However, the results are still interesting because complexity does not seem to imply value (extra alpha generation) of significant magnitude, if at all. What does seem to imply value, are the minimization of human interactions with investment models and emotional stability.

The hefty price increases in heavily shorted stocks in the beginning of 2021 indicates that short interest might be an underrated yet important key figure for investors when deciding on whether to take on an investment strategy or not. Most stock exchanges release information regarding the short interest only once a month leaving investors having to make decisions on outdated information. No previous research was found on whether there exists a linear relationship between some variables to estimate the short interest. Through the collection of mostly financial data and some regression analysis, a large­sample linear regression model was constructed. Although the problem complexity may seem of higher degree than linear, this study suggest that there exists a linear relationship between the variables studied when estimating short interest. These results suggest that one can use the mathematical model presented in this study for estimation and also get a better understanding of which underlying variables that impact short interest the most. The final model consisted of 6 variables, number of outstanding shares, average trading volume, stock price, volatility, equity andaverage weighted cost of capital. / De kraftiga prisökningarna på kraftigt blankade aktier i början av 2021 indikerar att mängden blankade aktier kan vara ett underskattat men ändå viktigt nyckeltal för investerare när de beslutar om den investeringsstrategi som skall användas. De flesta börser släpper information om mängden blankningar en gång i månaden, vilket gör att investerare måste fatta beslut på föråldrad information. Ingen tidigare forskning hittades på om det finns ett linjärt samband mellan vissa variabler för att uppskatta antalet blankningar. Genom insamlingen av mestadels finansiell data och med hjälp av regressionsanalys konstruerades en regressionsmodell baserat på ett stort urval. Även om problemkomplexiteten kan verka av högre grad än linjär tyder denna studie på att det finns ett linjärt samband mellan de studerade variablerna. Dessa resultat tyder på att man kan använda den matematiska modellen som presenteras i denna studie för uppskattning och också få en bättre förståelse för vilka underliggande variabler som påverkar mest. Den slutliga modellen bestod av 6 variabler, antal utestående aktier, genomsnittlig handelsvolym, aktiekurs, volatilitet, eget kapital och genomsnittlig viktad kapitalkostnad.

Магистерская диссертация посвящена анализу специфики инвестиционной деятельности на финансовом рынке и формированию наиболее оптимальной структуры инвестиционного портфеля. Целью исследования является формирование инвестиционных портфелей для разных возрастных групп частных инвесторов. Научной новизной исследования являются моделирование инвестиционных портфелей с заданными критериями оптимизации, авторские рекомендации по инвестированию, дополнение классификации рисков инвестирования на финансовом рынке, выделение критериев выбора биржевого брокера. / The master's thesis is devoted to the analysis of specifics of investment activity in the financial market and formation of the most optimal theoretical base for trading on stock exchange. The purpose of the study is to form invest portfolio for different age groups of private investors. The scientific novelty of the research is the modeling of investment portfolios with specified optimization criteria, author's recommendations for investment, addition of a classification of investment risks in the financial market, and selection of criteria for choosing a stock broker.