How do states perceive threats? Why are material forces sometimes more prominent in shaping threat perception, whereas ideational ones are key in other instances? This study aims to move beyond the task of determining whether material or ideational factors offer a more plausible explanation by arguing that threat perception is a function of the interplay between material factors and state identity, the influence of which can run both ways. Based on ‘analytical eclecticism’, I develop a two-layered conception of security as both physical and ontological, in which the interaction of ideational and material forces can be analysed. Ontological security is intimately connected with identity; its pursuit, therefore, requires distinctiveness and differentiation from the ‘Other’ as well as a coherent and consistent identity narrative at the domestic level. Physical security, on the other hand, involves the identification of threats that constitute a danger to the survival of the state. While ontological and physical security spheres have distinct dynamics and processes, they constitute two interrelated layers. Accordingly, I argue that states can suffer from ontological insecurity while their physical security remains intact, and vice versa. In some instances, physical security and its corresponding material forces condition identity narratives while in other instances the causal arrow points in the other direction. To illustrate these processes, I present a ‘structured, focused’ comparison of Syrian and Saudi threat perceptions during three major wars in the region: the Iran-Iraq War (1980-1988), the 2006 Lebanon War, and the 2009 Gaza War. While providing novel insights for explaining the dynamics of threat perception in the Middle East, this study contributes to the broader IR literature by proposing a conceptual framework that links the literature on Self/Other relations, ontological security, and realism in IR theory. This study thus demonstrates the potential utility of bringing IR theory and the Middle East as an area study into closer dialogue.

Cette mémoire vise à analyser les processus de changement et de continuité dans la politique étrangère syrienne. En 2000, Bachar el-Assad a accédé au pouvoir après la mort d’Hafez el-Assad, en effectuant des réformes internes en matière du appareil économique et politique. Les changements qui ont eu lieu ont été limitées en regard l'aspect de la concentration du pouvoir, mais il y avait l'ouverture aux capitaux étrangers et la nomination de nouveaux technocrates qui ont étudié à l'étranger, ce qui conduit à une plus grande flexibilité en relation a la puissance militaire et politique très forte qui a duré pendant le gouvernement d'Hafez el-Assad. De plus, nous essayons de démontrer que le nouveau contexte international résultant des attentats du 11 septembre (2001) et le changement dans la géopolitique régionale avec l'invasion et l'occupation de l'Irak (2003) ont catalysé avec la possession de Bachar el-Assad une réorientation de politique étrangère, bien qu'en maintenant les principes politiques d'Hafez. C'est l'objectif de cette mémoire, par conséquent, d'examiner comment Bachar a travaillé avec de nouveaux obstacles imposés à la Syrie par l'intervention américaine au Moyen-Orient, aussi bien que l'influence politique syrienne dans les pays voisins. / Esta dissertação propõe analisar os processos de mudança e continuidade na política externa síria. Em 2000, Bashar al-Assad ascende ao poder, após a morte de Hafez al-Assad, realizando reformas internas no que concerne ao aparato econômico e político. As mudanças ocorridas foram limitadas quanto ao aspecto da concentração de poder, porém houve abertura ao capital externo e a nomeação de novos tecnocratas com educação obtida no exterior, o que acarretou uma maior flexibilização em relação ao forte poder político militar que perdurou durante o governo de Hafez al-Assad. Ademais, procura-se demonstrar que o novo contexto internacional resultado dos ataques de 11 de setembro (2001) e a alteração da geopolítica regional com a invasão e a ocupação do Iraque (2003) catalisou junto à posse de Bashar al-Assad uma reorientação da política externa, apesar de manter os princípios políticos de Hafez. É do escopo desta dissertação, portanto, analisar como Bashar lidou com os novos obstáculos impostos à Síria pela intervenção norte-americana no Oriente Médio, assim como, a influência política síria nos países vizinhos. / This dissertation aims to analyze the processes of change and continuity in Syrian foreign policy. In 2000, Bashar al-Assad ascends to the Syrian’s power after the death of his father Hafez al-Assad, with his promises of carrying out new internal reforms concerning the economic and political apparatus. The changes he had so far were limited, as the aspect of his concentration power, but there was openness to foreign capital and the appointment of new technocrats, with education obtained abroad leading to greater flexibility in relation to the strong military political power that lasted for the government Hafez al-Assad. In addition, the research demonstrated the new international context result from the 11 September (2001), and the change in regional geopolitics with the invasion and occupation of Iraq attacks (2003), catalyzed by the rise of Bashar al-Assad a reorientation of foreign policy while maintaining the political principles of Hafez. The scope of this dissertation also examine how Bashar dealt with new obstacles to Syria imposed by US intervention in the Middle East, as well the influence of Syria politics in the neighboring countries.

Alors que le conflit en Syrie continue sa course dévastatrice depuis mars 2011, cette recherche s’inscrit dans une démarche prospective visant à envisager le post-conflit. Après une analyse de la situation touristique et politique de la Syrie, avant et pendant le conflit, notre travail aboutit à une série de constats et de prévisions qui permettent de dessiner le contour d’un tourisme post-conflit dans le pays. Pour compléter notre analyse nous avons eu recours au comparatisme avec les cas de la Bosnie-Herzégovine et de la Croatie. Les deux pays ayant connu des conflits dans les années 1990, cette démarche nous a permis d’y observer le contexte post-conflit avec plus de recul. Les questions du devenir du patrimoine existant et de l’émergence d’un « nouveau patrimoine » issu du conflit font partie des sujets auxquels nous nous sommes intéressés ainsi qu’à l’évolution de l’interprétation de ces différents patrimoines au fil du temps (« à chaud »/ « à froid »). Nous nous sommes intéressés en parallèle aux nouvelles formes de tourisme qui pourraient accompagner le retour de la paix, notamment le "dark tourism", caractéristique du contexte post-conflit. Le résultat prend la forme de scenarii décrivant les différents aboutissements possibles du conflit en cours en Syrie et leurs implications respectives sur le futur du tourisme dans le pays. / While the harrowing conflict in Syria has been enduring since March 2011, this research aims nonetheless to foresee the aftermath of the war through a forward-looking approach. After an analysis of the situation in Syria, before and during the war, from a touristic and political point of view, our work results in a series of observations and forecasts that allow us to draw the outlines of a post-conflict tourism in the country. More specifically and in order to complete our analysis, we used a comparative framework to study the examples of Bosnia and Herzegovina, as well as Croatia. Given that both countries have lived through conflict in the 1990s, this approach enabled us to observe the post-conflict context with a longer lapse of time. The questions related to the future of heritage sites, the emergence of a “new heritage” resulting from the conflict itself, and the changes over time in the interpretation of these different forms of heritage (“hot/cold interpretation”) were among the main issues that we have treated in this dissertation. We also took a major interest in the appearance of new forms of tourism that might accompany the return of peace, especially the “dark tourism”, typical of the post-conflict context. The results are presented in the form of scenarios that describe the different possible outcomes of the current conflict in Syria and their respective implications for the future of tourism in the country.

Le traité de Versailles semble marquer une rupture géopolitique profonde sur la scène internationale. Il place la France dans une position hégémonique (provisoire) en Europe et met le Proche-Orient au cœur des mutations et des innovations de l’entre-deux-guerres. L’effondrement de l’Empire Ottoman avec lequel la France entretenait des liens privilégiés depuis longtemps, la redistribution du pouvoir et des frontières qui en résulte, l’émergence de la SDN, porteuse de la doctrine de la sécurité collective et d’une réflexion sur de nouveaux cadres de domination visant des objectifs et des ambitions renouvelés, sont autant de facteurs qui reconfigurent les relations entre la France et les pays du Levant. En 1919, la France se voit confier par la SDN le mandat de conduire la Syrie à l’autonomie, en l’accompagnant dans son développement économique, social, politique et culturel. Les relations entre la France et la Syrie sont désormais réglées par la Charte du mandat qui encadre et par les usages plus ou moins décalés qu’en font les acteurs en fonction de la conjoncture et des tensions dans la société et entre les nations et du caractère antagoniste ou conciliable des ambitions de chacun… / The Treaty of Versailles appears to mark a profound geopolitical disruption on the international scene. It puts France in a hegemonic position (provisional) in Europe and the Middle East makes the heart mutations and innovations of the period between the wars. The collapse of the Ottoman Empire which France maintained close ties for a long time, the redistribution of power and boundaries that result, the emergence of the League, carrier of the doctrine of collective security and reflection on new domination frameworks objectives and renewed ambitions, are all factors that reconfigure the relationship between France and the Levant.In 1919, France was entrusted by the League of Nations mandate to lead Syria to autonomy, accompanying it in its economic, social, political and cultural. Relations between France and Syria are now set by the Charter of office that oversees and by the way, more or less offset than the actors do depending on the situation and the tensions in society and among nations and character antagonist or reconcile the ambitions of each ...

En 2009, selon les résultats de la dernière enquête sociodémographique représentative au niveau national, le taux de fécondité totale de la Syrie était de 3.5 enfants par femme. Il dépasse d’environ 1.5 enfant le seuil de remplacement des générations, estimé à 2.1 enfants par femme. L’évolution de la fécondité syrienne a connu plusieurs phases ; la première, où la fécondité atteignait des « records mondiaux » et résistait à tout changement, puis la phase d’une baisse rapide amorcée au milieu des années 1980, suivie par une phase d’une lente baisse ou d’une quasi-stagnation de la fécondité dès le début des années 2000 et jusqu’à nos jours. Si la baisse rapide de la fécondité a été déclenchée sous la contrainte économique liée à la crise multifacettes des années 1980, sa stagnation récente est, au moins en partie, liée aux préceptes religieux et à des facteurs culturels qui constituent des obstacles à la baisse de fécondité au-dessous d’un certain niveau. Le « modèle géographique » de la fécondité qui persiste dans le temps en est témoin : les populations des gouvernorats du Nord-Est du pays, Deir-ez-zor, Al-Hassakeh et Al-Rakka, et des deux gouvernorats des frontières sud, Al-Quneitra et Dar’a, enregistrent la fécondité la plus élevée ; tandis que les populations des gouvernorats côtiers, Lattaquié et Tartous, du gouvernorat d’Al-Sweida et de la capitale ont la fécondité la plus basse. / According to the results of the last demographic survey representative at the national level, the total fertility rate of Syria was 3.5 children per woman in 2009. It exceeds about 1.5 children the replacement level, estimated at 2.1 children per woman. The evolution of the Syrian fertility has experienced several phases; the first was when fertility reached "world records" and resisted any change, then a phase of rapid decline in the mid-1980s, followed by a phase of slow decrease or a phase of quasi-stagnation of fertility in the early 2000s until today. If rapid fertility decline was triggered by economic difficulties related to the crisis of the 1980s, its recent stagnation is, at least in part, related to religious precepts and cultural factors that are barriers to fertility decline below a certain level. This is confirmed by the "geographic pattern" of fertility which persists over time, the populations of North East governorates, Deir ez-Zor, Al-Hassakeh and Al-Rakka and the two governorates of southern borders Al-Quneitra and Dar'a, record the highest fertility; while populations of coastal governorates, Latakia and Tartous Governorate of Al-Sweida and the capital have the lowest fertility.

Drawing mainly on Lefebvre’s, Soja’s and Smith’s theorizations of space in order to understand the spatial dynamics of social inequality, this study investigates how a low-income Syrian refugee community negotiates its precarious location in a neighborhood on the periphery of one of Cairo’s desert ‘New Towns’. It also examines the way in which urban spatiality shapes the everyday lived reality of this particular community of Syrians. Through an ethnographic focus, I explore how Syrian people living in Cairo are marginalized through broader processes of neoliberal capitalist development which in turn give rise to socio-spatial disparities within cityspace. By developing the concept of socio-spatial exclusion imbued with defiant (hyper)locality, I argue that although these Syrian refugees lack access to transportation and other types of social services, they nevertheless manage to disrupt the spatial status-quo by devising creative solutions to problems concerning amenity availability in the neighborhood where they live. The investigation of these urban trajectories are guided by the notion that spatiality is at once a social product as well as a force in shaping social life. Research for this project draws on multiple sources, including conversations with neighborhood residents, interviews with NGOs and Cairo-based specialists on refugees and urban development, as well as ethnographic observation, an online questionnaire, satellite imagery and social media content.

Les deux pays choisis se différencient par rapport à leurs processus d’orientation, et par rapport au critère selon lequel se fait cette orientation. L’orientation constitue un choix qui est un indicateur de la motivation qui est un élément central et déterminant de la réussite scolaire. Nous étudions l’importance du choix dans l’orientation et les types de motivation de l’élève, ainsi que l’importance de la motivation dans la réussite scolaire. Puis nous étudions l’influence de l’orientation sur la réussite scolaire et la clarté des perspectives d’avenir professionnel. Nous avons appliqué une méthode quantitative fondée sur un questionnaire administré auprès de 227 élèves en France et 289 élèves en Syrie. Nous avons trouvé des relations de dépendance entre l’orientation par manque de bons résultats et le type de la motivation d’une part et la clarté des perspectives d’avenir professionnel des élèves d’autre part. / The two selected countries differ with respect to their Options process, and report to the criterion that takes this approach.The Options process is a choice which is an indicator (a measure) of motivation which is a central element and determiner of success at school. We study the importance of choice in the Options process, and the types of student motivation, as well as the role of motivation in academic success. Then we study the effect of the Options process on academic success and the clarity of perspectives on career prospects. We applied a quantitative method based on a questionnaire carried out among 227 students in France and 289 students in Syria. We found a dependant relationships on Options advice through the lack of good grades and the type of motivation on one hand and clarity of professional future prospects of students on the other.

Les périphéries des villes syriennes, les unes agricoles ou maraîchères, les autres désertiques, ont connu au cours des dernières décennies du XXème siècle un puissant mouvement d’urbanisation, qui a très souvent donné naissance à des quartiers non réglementaires ; ceux-ci occupent en moyenne 40% du territoire des agglomérations et à peu près le même pourcentage de leur population. La ville de Lattaquié, chef-lieu de mohafazat et principale ville de la Syrie méditerranéenne, se situe pratiquement au niveau de cette moyenne nationale. La thèse est consacrée d’abord à analyser les raisons pour lesquelles les quartiers « clandestins » occupent une telle place alors que les pouvoirs publics n’ont cessé pendant des années de nier leur réalité. L’analyse combine l’intensité des mouvements migratoires vers la ville, les faibles résultats de la production de logements sociaux par l’Etat, l’impéritie des sociétés immobilières publiques, le très faible investissement des capitaux privés dans le logement locatif, et enfin les contraintes multiples imposées tant par les pouvoirs publics que par la municipalité de Lattaquié aux auto-constructeurs ou aux petits promoteurs privés (gel du foncier, plans d’aménagement urbain non publiés, difficultés d’obtention des permis de construire, etc.). La thèse vise ensuite à étudier les changements opérés dans le champ de la production urbaine et de l’urbanisme à partir de l’an 2000 et de l’arrivée au pouvoir de Bachar Al-Assad. Après une analyse des changements intervenus au plan national, elle cherche à en mesurer les effets au plan local (Lattaquié). Elle insiste sur la généralisation de la tolérance envers les quartiers non réglementaires, l’émergence (lente) de politiques de requalification des quartiers de ce type, la réalisation d’un grand programme de logements sociaux subventionnés par l’Etat, apparition de quelques résidences « fermées » pour classes riches. / The outskirts of the Syrian’s cities, some of theme agriculturals or maraichers, others deserts, have known in the course of the last decades of the 20the century a strong movement of urbanization, which often have given rise to informal settlement ; those occupy on average 4% of the territory of agglomerations, and more or less, the same percentage of their inhabitants. The city of Lattakia, Capital of a mohafazat and a main city of the Mediterranean Syria, is practically situated on the same national level. This thesis is devoted, at first, to analyze the reasons for what, theses informal settlements occupy so much of place while the authorities have not stopped, during a years, to deny their reality. The analyze combine the intensity of the movement of migration toward the city, the slight result of the production of social housing by the State, the disability Of the public housing Societies, the very slight investment of the private capitals in the rented housing, last the many constraints imposed both by the authority and by the municipality of Lattakia on the auto-constructor and the little property developers (freeze land, non published developing plan, difficulty to obtaining a licence of construction, etc.). Then, the thesis aim to study the changes happened in the domain of the urban production and the urban planning starting from the year 2000 and the ascent of Bashar Al Assad to the power. After an analyze of the changes happened on the national level, the thesis try to measure the effects on the local one (Lattakia). It stress the generalization of the tolerance toward the informal settlements, the (slow) rising of upgrade policy for these type of settlements, the realisation of a social housing program subsidized by the state, the appearance of some “gated” housing for the rich class.

Cette mémoire vise à analyser les processus de changement et de continuité dans la politique étrangère syrienne. En 2000, Bachar el-Assad a accédé au pouvoir après la mort d’Hafez el-Assad, en effectuant des réformes internes en matière du appareil économique et politique. Les changements qui ont eu lieu ont été limitées en regard l'aspect de la concentration du pouvoir, mais il y avait l'ouverture aux capitaux étrangers et la nomination de nouveaux technocrates qui ont étudié à l'étranger, ce qui conduit à une plus grande flexibilité en relation a la puissance militaire et politique très forte qui a duré pendant le gouvernement d'Hafez el-Assad. De plus, nous essayons de démontrer que le nouveau contexte international résultant des attentats du 11 septembre (2001) et le changement dans la géopolitique régionale avec l'invasion et l'occupation de l'Irak (2003) ont catalysé avec la possession de Bachar el-Assad une réorientation de politique étrangère, bien qu'en maintenant les principes politiques d'Hafez. C'est l'objectif de cette mémoire, par conséquent, d'examiner comment Bachar a travaillé avec de nouveaux obstacles imposés à la Syrie par l'intervention américaine au Moyen-Orient, aussi bien que l'influence politique syrienne dans les pays voisins. / Esta dissertação propõe analisar os processos de mudança e continuidade na política externa síria. Em 2000, Bashar al-Assad ascende ao poder, após a morte de Hafez al-Assad, realizando reformas internas no que concerne ao aparato econômico e político. As mudanças ocorridas foram limitadas quanto ao aspecto da concentração de poder, porém houve abertura ao capital externo e a nomeação de novos tecnocratas com educação obtida no exterior, o que acarretou uma maior flexibilização em relação ao forte poder político militar que perdurou durante o governo de Hafez al-Assad. Ademais, procura-se demonstrar que o novo contexto internacional resultado dos ataques de 11 de setembro (2001) e a alteração da geopolítica regional com a invasão e a ocupação do Iraque (2003) catalisou junto à posse de Bashar al-Assad uma reorientação da política externa, apesar de manter os princípios políticos de Hafez. É do escopo desta dissertação, portanto, analisar como Bashar lidou com os novos obstáculos impostos à Síria pela intervenção norte-americana no Oriente Médio, assim como, a influência política síria nos países vizinhos. / This dissertation aims to analyze the processes of change and continuity in Syrian foreign policy. In 2000, Bashar al-Assad ascends to the Syrian’s power after the death of his father Hafez al-Assad, with his promises of carrying out new internal reforms concerning the economic and political apparatus. The changes he had so far were limited, as the aspect of his concentration power, but there was openness to foreign capital and the appointment of new technocrats, with education obtained abroad leading to greater flexibility in relation to the strong military political power that lasted for the government Hafez al-Assad. In addition, the research demonstrated the new international context result from the 11 September (2001), and the change in regional geopolitics with the invasion and occupation of Iraq attacks (2003), catalyzed by the rise of Bashar al-Assad a reorientation of foreign policy while maintaining the political principles of Hafez. The scope of this dissertation also examine how Bashar dealt with new obstacles to Syria imposed by US intervention in the Middle East, as well the influence of Syria politics in the neighboring countries.

With the conflict ongoing in Syria since 2011, many Syrian Kurds have been forced to leave their homes to seek safety and security in the Kurdistan Region of Iraq (KRI). Their displacement to KRI is a distinctive experience of migration as it has happened within an intra-ethnic setting of Syrian Kurds, as refugees, encountering Iraqi Kurds, as hosts. Sharing ethnic identification and imagination of a historical homeland but holding different nationalities, has turned identity and belonging into sites of contestation between the refugees and the hosts. Within this intra-ethnic setting of displacement, the study has investigated the construction of home and politics of identity and belonging among the refugees in relation to protection regimes and forms of inclusion and exclusion. This has been done through a content analysis of relevant policy and regulations for refugees in KRI and Iraq and a thematic analysis of individual narrative interviews with the refugees themselves. Research results from the policy analysis have indicated the lack of a comprehensive protection regime in Iraq and KRI, and the deployment of the ‘guests’ rhetoric towards the refugees as a responsibility evasion mechanism. Results from the interviews have revealed that home for the participants is plural, and it connects to Syria and Kurdistan to varying degrees. Their identity as Kurds is contested when their Syrianness is evoked with boundaries limiting their recognition to be both Syrian and Kurdish. Similarly, their belonging is challenged with their social position as refugees and their legal belonging to Syria. With this, they get involved into a continuum of politics of identity and belonging ranging between the situational demonstration of their Syrian identity and the role of ‘the successful Syrian refugee’, and the accentuation of their attachment to Kurdishness through belonging to Rojava. These politics have been discussed as reflecting a process of reconstructing Syrian Kurdish identity in the light of the experience of displacement and the intra-ethnic encounter. Contextualizing the research results in a wider perspective, it is argued that they carry further implications related to the Kurdish struggle with identity and belonging, not only in KRI, but in all the other parts of Kurdistan.