[pt] Em sistemas de pensão de contribuição definida (CD),o agente regulador em geral impõe restrições de alocação (mínimo e máximos por classe de ativo,como renda fixa, ações, empréstimos, etc.) como objetivo de criar fundos com diferentes perfis de risco-retorno. Neste trabalho, desafiamos essa abordagem e mostramos que tais fundos apresentam perfis de risco-retorno erráticos que desviam significativamente do design desejado. Nós propomos a substituição de todas as restrições de limites máximo se mínimos por uma medida única que controla o risco financeiro diretamente. Dessa forma,fundos com diferentes perfis de risco retorno podem ser estabelecidos imediatamente ao variarmos tal medida. Nós demonstramos a eficácia dessa abordagem com dados do sistema de pensão chileno. Mais especificamente, mostramos que nossa metodologia resulta em fundos cujos perfis de risco-retorno estão consistentemente ordenados de acordo com o design desejado e exibem performance superior em comparação com os fundos criados com o uso de restrições delimites de alocação. / [en] In defined contribution (DC) pension schemes, the regulator usually imposes asset allocation constraints (minimum and maximum limits by asset class, e.g. equities, bonds, realestate, loans, etc.) in order to create funds with different risk-return profiles. In thiswork we challenge this approach and show that such funds exhibit erratic risk-return profiles that deviate significantly from the intended design. We propose toreplace all minimum and maximum asset allocation constraints by a single risk metric (or measure) that controls risk directly. Thus, funds with different risk- return profiles can be immediately created by adjusting the risk tolerance parameter accordingly. We demonstrate the effectiveness of this approach with data from the Chilean DC pension system. Specifically, we show that our approach generates funds whose risk-return profiles are consistently ordered according to the intended design and out perform funds created by means of asset allocation limits.

論文摘要: 本研究以現金餘額計劃（Cash Balance Plan）及確定提撥退休金計劃（Defined Contribution Pension Plan）建構出公務人員退撫基金之建議機制，建構之主要目的在於透過第一層現金餘額計劃之利息給付機制降低退休基金利率風險，同時由第二層確定提撥計劃獲取額外退休所得，使雇主與員工在双層式退休金計劃下，同時承擔投資風險，以降低基金利率風險並同時滿足適當退休所得保障。本文在現金餘額計劃不同控管年限及利息給付假設下，模擬超額積蓄（Overfunded）基金與不足額積蓄（Underfunded）基金執行資產負債管理（Asset Liability Management）所需存續期間，同時模擬双層式退休金計劃提供員工之退休所得替代率，研究結果發現： 1、超額積蓄基金及不足額積蓄基金均可以在目前資本市場中找到符合所需存續期間之資產投資。在控管20年限內，超額積蓄基金所需存續期間在-1.71年到0.39年之間；不足額積蓄基金所需存續期間在4.68年到8.31年之間。 2、退休基金越接近超額狀態越有利於資產負債管理。當基金積蓄狀態越接近超額積蓄時，基金負債與資產的比例較不足額積蓄基金低，故資產負債管理所需存續期間較短，對於基金能夠控管的年限也越長。 3、雇主可透過現金餘額計劃利息給付機制執行百分之百免疫策略。雇主可利用現金餘額計劃利息給付依據外部債券利率為參考依據的特性，鎖定債券利率，達到資產負債管理百分之百免疫效果。 4、現金餘額計劃執行百分之百免疫策略情況下，45歲以下公務人員採行自動選擇投資基金（Default Fund）為高風險投資基金，自動選擇提撥率（Default Rate）為每月薪資5.08﹪，可使員工達到適當所得替代率保障水準。 / Abstract This thesis proposes an new alternative two-tier pension composed of Cash Balance Plan (CBP ) and defined contribution pension plan to the traditional defined benefit pension plan of Taiwan Public Employee Retirement System(TPERS). In order to decrease the interest-rate risk of the pension fund and to provide additional retirement income protection, we utilize the credit rate mechanism of CBP and supplement CBP with additional defined contribution plan. We investigate the Asset-Liability Management (ALM) for TPERS and calculate the liability duration under different time horizons, interest credits of CBP. We also simulate the replacement rate of the two-tier pension plan under different contribution rates, and investment returns. The results are as follows: 1、Given the twenty-year time horizons, the asset duration of overfunded plan ranges between –1.71 years and 0.39 years, whereas that of underfunded plan varies from 4.68 years to 8.31 years. In this case, the requirements of asset duration can be satisfied in the Taiwan Capital Market. 2、The overfunded pension plan has higher probabilities to meet the requirements of asset duration. Therefore, we suggest that the fund manager can increase the asset allocation percentage of external fund management in order to improve the long-term returns. 3、Perfect matching of pension fund can be achieved by matching the yield of securities to interest credit under CBP . In addition, we suggest that the interest credit of the new labor contracts should take the trend of the current interest rate into consideration. 4、Replacement rates provided by CBP for woman range from 19.05﹪ to 45.70﹪and from 20.86﹪to 50.05﹪for man assuming the interest credit rate is 5.2%. To increase the retirement income, the defined contribution plan provide additional replacement rate between 13.56﹪and 162.96﹪for woman and between 14.85﹪and 178.42﹪for man assuming the employee can contribute 3.08 percent to 13.37 percent of regular salaries and investment returns are from 4 percent to 8 percent .

我國65歲以上的老年人口，於民國82年底達總人口比率7.1％，正式邁入聯合國世界衛生組織所稱之高齡化社會（7％以上）。根據行政院經濟建設委員會之推估，65歲以上的老年人口比例於97年將達總人口數之10.15％，而於116年達總人口數之20.04％，人口老化速度明顯高於歐美國家，未來人口年齡結構將更趨於高齡化。隨著我國老年人口成長，社會安全制度日益受到重視，提供老人經濟安全之適度保障將成為我國未來福利發展之新方向。 本研究根據世界銀行提出的「三層保障」之老年經濟安全保障制度架構為基礎，說明我國公務人員退休制度在老年經濟安全保障方案之定位，闡述有關第二層保障之職業退休金制度理論演變，以釐清公務人員退休金之屬性及正當性，以助於退休制度及其財務規劃的擬定，期使整套制度循著適當的理論脈絡而發展。基於對退休金重要性的認知，先進國家早已發展成熟的職業退休金制度，而我國公務人員退休制度係建制於民國32年，實施50餘年，雖歷經4次修正，由於退休金給付方式仍屬於恩給制，除造成財政上重大負擔外，也產生退休給與偏低等嚴重問題，相關機關自62年開始研究改革，經過22年研議規劃完成，自84年7月1日實施退休新制，其與舊制最大的差異，是將退休經費籌措方式，由政府編列預算支付之恩給制，改由政府與公務人員共同撥繳費用成立退撫基金之共同提撥制，其餘退休對象、退休年資、退休條件、核給退休金原則大致維持不變，而退休金給付方式，也維持著確定給付制。經分析新退休制度之主要內容，實施迄今8年餘，有關改進退撫經費籌措方式，減輕政府財政負擔；及提高退撫所得，加強安老卹孤之改革目標，均已獲致初步成效。然而現階段面臨之問題，是退休經費導致各級政府財政負擔增加，且依公務人員退休撫卹基金管理委員會委託基金精算結果也顯示基金將面臨財務危機。 本研究係分析新制退休金給付方式，全面採行確定提撥制，對解決基金現存財務危機之可行性，為便於瞭解，爰敘明確定提撥制與確定給付制之意涵與優、缺點，及我國採用此兩種制度之適例。茲因退休金給付方式之政策變革方案，影響層面甚廣，方案之可行性如何，必須審慎探討與分析，爰就制度變革方案可行性列舉幾項評估面向進行分析。 例如為解決基金財務問題，除必須從經濟上分析外，茲因制度變革方案，必須符合現時的政治生態，始能確保政策推行之成果，方案的周詳與否，關係到該方案能否被接受及未來能否順利執行。由於退休舊制恩給制時期，因退休經費籌措方式不當，同樣存在著財政負擔之問題及缺失，其能於84年7月改革成功推動新退休制度，在政治方面包括政黨、民意機關、相關主管機關、公務人員，甚至學者等等支持的因素，在現今新制推行後，為解決財政問題，而將退休金給付方式，全面改採確定提撥制，是否同樣具有政治上支持的可能性，自須審慎分析；此外，退休金政策之改變，直接受影響的便是公務人員之退休所得，在退休金採行確定提撥制後，是否仍能達成新制推行時所設定之提高退撫所得、加強安老卹孤改革目標，應為關鍵之所在，由於職業退休金理論中之維持適當生活，係本研究在規劃退休金制度時所考量的重點，因退休後的生活水準應能與退休前相當，乃是探討退休金制度的核心，爰列為評估面向。又世界各國實施公務員退休金制度之經驗，包括採行確定給付制與確定提撥制例證，及面臨困境或改革之趨勢，均能在我國制訂退休金政策時有所啟示，故亦列為評估面向。本研究依據上述重要項目進行整體性評估，針對現存政經環境及職業特性，歸納我國新制退休金採行確定給付制或確定提撥制之個別效益，深入檢討何種給付方式較能維持公務人員權益？及退休前之生活水準？藉以說明並支持可行方案，以作為方案選擇之參據。最後提出本研究之結論與研究發現，進而本於基金能否永續經營，將是制度得否存續的關鍵，減少財務潛在危機，應具有合理的制度設計與有效的經營管理之基本條件，爰研擬若干建議措施，以降低財政問題的嚴重性，俾確保基金日後退休給付之能力，保障參加基金人員之權益。 / Taiwan has officially joined the “aging society” as defined by the WHO (up to 7% of the senior citizen ratio) because senior citizens aged over 65 accounted for 7.1% as of December 31, 1993. The official forecast by the Council of Economic Planning & Development of the Executive Yuan (the Cabinet) indicates that the senior population age over 65 will hit 10.15% of the total population by 2008 and even up to 20.04％ by the year 2027. Taiwan significantly outpaces their European and American counterparts in terms of the ratio of aging citizens. The aging society problems will likely turn from bad to worse in the future. In turn, the social security system is receiving mounting awareness and attention. The efforts to provide sound financial standing, secured social systems and protection to senior citizens will represent the new orientation of future welfare development in Taiwan. The present study takes the “Three-Level Assurance” oriented senior citizen financial security system proposed by the World Bank as the very grounds to elucidate the positioning of the Public Servant System in the senior citizen financial security system, annotate the evolution pension system of the Second-level Assurance to clarify the attribute and justification of the pension granted to civil servants. The present study is intended to help draw up a retirement system and financial planning so that the entire system will develop toward appropriate and justified orientation. With awareness of the importance of pension, those advanced countries have developed sound and mature professional pension systems for quite some time already. In the Republic of China, the retirement system for civil servants was initiated in 1943 and has been updated four times during the subsequent half century. The pension has been granted as a sort of benefit, or a government favor. As a result, pension to civil servants has become a heavy financial burden to the government and has been illogically insufficient. In response, the competent authorities concerned began initiating research for a reform of the pension system in 1973 and completed the research program 22 years later. The new retirement system was officially put into place on July 1, 1995. Between the old and new retirement system, the greatest difference is that the pension fund is jointly contributed by both the government and civil servants themselves in the new system instead of being solely budgeted by the government as a sort of government favor in the old system. Except for this, the aspects of the target retirees, seniority requirements, prerequisites for retirement and the principles to grant pension largely remain unchanged. Pension is paid in an unchanged “Defined Benefit Plan”. Now, with the new system in enforcement for over eight years, the new system proves to have primarily attained the goals in improving the method of pension fund raising, easing up the government’s financial burden, providing added pension to retirees and better safeguarding the senior civil servants. The problems currently confronting the pension practice are largely the mounting financial burden to the government as incurred by the retirement expenses. Meanwhile, the actual calculation outcome consigned by the Pension Management Committee indicates that the Pension Fund is on the verge of financial difficulties. The present study is to analyze the terms of pension payment to determine the feasibility there-of and to solve the present financial problem by means of the “Defined Contribution Plan”. For better a understanding into the issues, the present study elucidates the connotation, strengths and weaknesses of the “Defined Contribution Plan” and “Defined Benefit Plan”, as well as the precedents in Taiwan in adopting such two systems. Where a reform in the policy of pension payments will create quite an extensive impact, the feasibility of the policies calls for prudent analysis to enumerate a few feasible alternatives before further analyses into a few aspects of the assessment. To solve the financial difficulties in the Pension Fund, for instance, other than the economic analyses, the reform of the system must live up to the current political ecology before it can ensure the effects expected through the enforcement. Whether or not the policies are detailed and comprehensive enough will determine whether or not the policies are acceptable and whether or not they can be put into successful enforcement without a ensuing problems. During the extended practice under the old system while pension was budgeted as a sort of government favor, the pension system led to a heavy financial burden and shortcomings on the government. The new pension system was successfully put into enforcement in July 1995, thanks to the unanimous support from the political parties, congress, competent authorities concerned, civil servants as well as scholars. Now, in an effort to solve the current financial problems under the new system, the pension will be paid under the “Defined Contribution Plan”. Will the present reform receive equal political support? It calls for well-advised analyses. Besides, in a change in the pension system, the top impact will be upon the pension income to civil servants. After the pension is under the “Defined Contribution Plan”, will civil servants receive added pension income and receive better security in their retired life? These will be the key issues under the present study. The core consideration should aim at the retired lifestyle, which should be equivalent to the pre-retirement one. The hands-on experiences in enforcing civil servant pension systems accumulated in other countries the world over, including precedents of their practices in adopting the “Defined Benefit Plan” and “Defined Contribution Plan” will function as the constructive examples in Taiwan’s policymaking process regarding pension systems, and will be, therefore, be covered in the assessment in the present study as well. The present study will launch an overall assessment on the aforementioned key issues. Aiming at the existent political and economic climate as well as the professional characteristics, the present study will generalize the individual effects and benefits under “Defined Benefit Plan” or “Defined Contribution Plan” under the new retirement system to find out the optimal terms of payment to assure maximum possible benefits to civil servants, safeguard the quality of their retired lifestyle to be equivalent to the pre-retirement lifestyle. The findings and conclusions yielded through the present study will function as handy reference materials for policymaking. By submitting the findings and conclusions so yielded, the study will help the policymakers draw up sound enforcement rules to ensure the sustained existence of the Pension Fund, alleviate the potential financial crises through reasonable design of systems and effective management as the very fundamentals. Further by offering constructive proposals, the study will help the competent authorities of the government solve the financial difficulties to ensure sustained sound competence of pension payments and to, in turn, safeguard the Pension Fund and the Fund’s beneficiaries.

為使台灣公部門能利用確定提撥的概念及妥善運用投資資源，以期在減少政府負擔的情況下獲得足夠的退休所得，故本研究以所得替代率、金錢價值比及平均數-變異數比等指標來針對公務人員退撫基金附加節約儲蓄制度採行之可能與投資策略彼此運用之模擬結果加以分析，結果如下： 1. 各情境下以BH策略所得出之期末個人帳戶平均累積值表現最佳，然其具相當大的波動變異程度，投資人需承受相當大的風險。而TIPP策略之表現則與前述完全相反。 2. 若投資者採用BH策略或是採用CPPI與TIPP策略(CM策略)且欲追求較高的所得替代率，則建議採用Lifecycle(平衡型)的投資比例配置方式，加計DB制下之給付則平均可提供男(女)性約70.204%-75.204% (65.49%-70.49%)的所得替代率，而金錢價值比則為2.399(2.95)。 3. 無論投資者採用何種策略進行投資，若欲追求最小的可能變異風險，則建議採取平衡型的投資比例配置方式，加計確定給付制下之給付則平均可提供男(女)性約67.924%-72.924%(65.318%-70.318%)的所得替代率，金錢價值比則為2.6835。 本文模擬結果所得出之所得替代率平均維持於70%上下，代表若政府將可藉此制度減輕政府負擔外亦可使員工擁有一定水平的退休生活，故可採用。至於投資策略與配置方式如何取捨須依不同的投資者而定。 　 關鍵詞：公務人員退撫基金、確定提撥制、所得替代率、金錢價值比、Lifecycle / Abstract Because the improvement of medical technology and the structure of population is aging. It makes human worry about the living in the future. In order to enable the public servants of Taiwan to utilize the system of the Defined Contribution and to relief the pressure of fiscal, so we simulate in this article and analysis the results of simulation by using replacement rate, money’s worth ratio, and mean-variance ratio. The result is as follows: 1.When investor adopt the BH strategy in the process of investment, it will create the best replacement rate and money’s worth ratio under every situation, but it can be anticipated more uncertainty. Investors need to think thrice before they act. The TIPP strategy is opposite. 2.If investors adopt BH strategy or CPPI and TIPP strategy (CM strategy) and wanting to pursue the substituting rate of the higher income , the best selection is proposed adopting the Lifecycle (balanced) scenario, and it can offer replacement ratio about 70.204% - 75.204% (65.49% - 70.49% ) for the man (the woman ) under adding the DB system. Besides, the money’s worth rate is 2.399 (2.95). 3. If the investors want to pursue the least influence in the process of investment whatever investors adopt which strategies, the best scenario is the balanced type, and it can offer replacement ratio about 67.924%-72.924%(65.318%-70.318%) for the man (the woman) under adding the DB system. Besides, the money’s worth rate is 2.6835. The outcome of the simulation in this article is keep the replacement rate maintain about 70% equally, What is the best selection for investor that must be contingent upon different characteristics of investors. Keywords: public servants, Defined Contribution, Replacement rate, The money’s worth ratio, Lifecycle hypothesis.

By the end of the twentieth century, the generous German public pay-as-you-go pension system had been struggling with a serious deficit due to the country’s ageing population. In 2001, the German government enacted the “Riester” pension reform, named after Mr. Walter Riester, the Labour Minister brokering it, which reduced the level of publicly provided pensions, and strengthened the funded occupational and private pillars in order to replace the loss in retirement income. This thesis investigates the role and structure of occupational pensions during the Riester-reform and in its aftermath, using an economic geography perspective. In doing so, it discusses the role of trade unions and employer associations (social partners) in moulding the structure of the occupational system, and investigates the geography of occupational pensions both at employer and at employee level. Empirically, the thesis is based on an in-depth interview with Mr. Walter Riester, and a unique, proprietary data-set of a German occupational pension provider, containing information on 332 thousand employees and over 12 thousand employers. The results show that the internal division of social partners played a critical role in leaving occupational pensions voluntary, but they have been successful in setting standards on the occupational pension market by means of collective bargaining. Employers and employees show systematic spatiotemporal patterns in their pension-related decisions, confirming the importance of local relationships and local contexts in implementing social partners’ measures and in the transformation of the welfare state. It is finally pointed out that the Riester-reform was a part of a gradual transition, which has been reducing employers’ autonomy in order to reinforce the social role of occupational pensions. To achieve that and to catalyse the reform process, employers’ and employees’ risk exposure has been mitigated in the hope that old-age poverty can be avoided.

摘要 傳統由家庭負責的老年經濟安全在老年人口日益增加，子女數目的減少及產業結構改變的衝擊下已漸漸的暴露出問題的嚴重性。其責任也漸漸地由家庭轉移到整體社會。世界各國政府多將如何確保老年經濟安全列為主要的施政內容，我國自然也不例外。證諸已開發國家的實際情況，大多以多層次的年金體系（multi－tier pension system）提供老年經濟安全完整的保障。近年來也有多位學者發表文章以探討如何利用這種多層次的年金架構達成各種社會及經濟目標。 就我國現行的狀況來看，即將開辦的國民年金由於給付水準偏低，只能對老年生活提供基本的保障，且由於計劃成員包含了全體國民，所規定的內容與給付的年金無法完全滿足個別成員的不同偏好，對採行確定給付制的公共計劃來說，由於給付與提撥之間並沒有明確關聯，若提撥率太高的話，對勞動誘因與產出將會有不利影響，再加上政府財政負擔與政治力干預的考量，在在都顯示出了職業退休金制度在老年生活保障上的不可或缺性。 相對於基礎年金計劃，政府對職業退休金計劃的介入程度通常較淺。政府通常藉著租稅優惠鼓勵企業提供，員工參與退休金計劃。此外，由於計劃中存在著訊息不對稱、外部性與獨占力等會造成市場失靈的因素，這使得政府有必要以管制者的身分對此失靈現象加以矯正。透過政府的管制尚可增進計劃的安全性與公平性。就目前多數OECD國家的管制經驗來看，管制的內容可以區分為資產、負債與其他方面三類。 我國目前雖然已經有完整的規範勞工退休的法令，但由於法規內容陳義過高，在實際情況下，有很多規定並無法落實，有很多規定則不合時宜。例如，我國法令並未強制企業以合理的方法對退休金進行提撥，以致普遍存在著提撥不足的現象。在計劃清償債務能力之保證、賦益權與可攜性與訊息揭露方面之管制現行法令往往不合時宜，甚至沒有規定。這使得大多數勞工退休後的生活無法獲得確實的保障，雇主也因為低估退休金成本而忽略退休金之潛在負擔，以致對將來的營運方針無法作整體的規劃。對於上述這些管制方面的問題，正在行政院審議中的「勞工退休金條例」草案已經為受勞基法規範行業的雇主與本國籍勞工規劃出一個可行的解決方案。但由於該條例尚未生效且適用的對象與範圍皆受限制，因此，並無法完全解決目前的難題。 由於上述的管制對員工退休金權益保障的落實有非常重要的影響，目前國內已有的研究很少且不夠完整，本文的主旨在以OECD選樣國家歷年來在勞工退休所得保障方面所遭遇的困難，及其在解決問題的對策方面所做的努力來作為改善我國勞工退休所得保障制度的借鏡。並透過對現行退休制度與「勞工退休金條例」草案的比較以檢視問題獲得改善的程度。 目錄 第一章 緒論------------------------------------------------------1 第一節 研究動機與研究目的---------------------------------------1 第二節 研究範圍與研究限制---------------------------------------3 第三節 研究大綱-------------------------------------------------4 第二章 職業退休（年）金計劃的必要性--------------------------6 第一節 老人福利需求與經濟安全保障的重要性-----------------------6 第二節 現階段老年經濟安全所面臨的威脅---------------------------7 第三節 老年年金的功能與性質------------------------------------12 第四節 職業退休（年）金制度應該扮演的角色----------------------14 第三章 職業退休（年）金計劃的歷史演進及種類----------------21 第一節 職業退休金的歷史演進與發展-------------------------------21 第二節 職業退休金計劃的種類-------------------------------------22 第三節 確定給付計劃與確定提撥計劃-------------------------------25 第四節 選樣OECD國家之職業退休金現況----------------------------39 第四章 政府對退休金計劃在資產方面的管制--------------------47 第一節 政府對退休金基金加以管制的必要性-------------------------47 第二節 政府在提撥基金方面的管制措施-----------------------------48 第三節 政府對賸餘資產所有權歸屬的管制---------------------------68 第四節 政府對投資組合的管制-------------------------------------70 第五章 政府對退休金計劃在負債及其他方面之管制-------------76 第一節 政府對計劃清償退休金債務的能力保險之管制-----------------76 第二節 政府對退休金計劃在賦益權及可攜性方面之管制---------------85 第三節 政府對退休金給付的指數化之管制---------------------------92 第四節 其他與政府管制有關的問題---------------------------------93 第六章 我國勞工退休（年）金管制問題之檢討-------------------103 第一節 我國勞工退休所得保障制度之沿格-------------------------103 第二節 我國現行勞工退休金制度所面臨之問題---------------------106 第三節 勞工退休金條例草案內容分析-----------------------------121 第七章 結論與建議---------------------------------------------125 參考文獻--------------------------------------------------------128 附表-----------------------------------------------------------------------133 圖表目錄 圖（1-1）本文架構圖------------------------------------------------------------------5 表（2-1）台灣地區人口結構與扶養比之變遷--------------------11 表（2-2）台灣地區勞動人口比例--------------------------------11 表（2-3）職業退休（年）金制度應該扮演的角色---------------20 表（3-1）確定給付計劃與確定提撥計劃之比較------------------36 表（3-2）選樣國家公共年金與職業年金之給付水準-------------39 表（4-1）選樣國家政府對退休金計劃在資產方面管制之比較----74 表（5-1）選樣國家政府對退休金計劃在負債方面管制之比較---100 表（6-1）民國73至87年間我國就業人口之轉業情形----------105 表（6-2）勞基法新增規定之內容-------------------------------105 表（6-3）我國現行退休金計劃的基金提撥方式-----------------107 表（6-4）近年來勞退基金各項用途及獲益情形-----------------117 表（6-5）民國七十六至民國八十四年各基金之績效評估表-----118 表（6-6）勞退基金與壽險業之投資限制比較-------------------118 表（6-7）勞退基金之資金運用比率表--------------------------118 表（6-8）台灣人壽保險資金運用比率表------------------------119 表（6-9）選樣國家與我國對退休金計劃管制之比較------------120 表（6-10）我國之退休金現制與退休金條例草案之比較---------124 附表一-----------------------------------------------------------133 附表二 每年薪資增加率---------------------------------------

退休金計畫依給付方式的設計，可以分為兩大體系：確定給付退休金計畫與確定提撥退休金計畫。無論是公共退休金計畫或是企業退休金計畫，最初實行時多採用確定給付的方式來實施。但隨著經濟環境的變遷，部份的國家與企業雇主，已開始傾向確定提撥方式的採用。本論文有鑑於退休金的改革潮流，欲探討確定提撥退休金計畫的實施回顧與給付的精算分析。 本論文分為四個主要部分，分別為：(1)確定提撥計畫的理論架構回顧；(2)主要國家制度的分析；(3)精算模型的建立與精算假設的分析；與(4)精算假設的給定與給付水準的模擬分析。在主要國家制度的回顧上，公共退休金計畫方面以新加坡「中央公積金制」與智利「公共退休金私有化」為探討的對象；在企業退休金計畫方面則以美國為討論對象。實證分析部分，則是先建立確定提撥退休金精算模型，再撰寫模擬程式介面，並以我國1998年「勞工退休金條例」草案為模擬對象，給定精算假設進行模擬，最後分析精算假設與模擬給付間的關係。 以台灣「勞工退休金條例」草案為例進行分析，其實證部分分為兩部分，先前給定平準的預定利率假設，而其他薪資成長率、通貨膨脹率、提撥率、開始工作提撥年齡、退休年齡、退休後各年存活率則根據台灣目前的經濟、就業環境給定；模擬結果發現， 6％合併提撥率無法達到模擬所給定50％-60％的退休後給付所得替代率；若將合併提撥率提高至12％以上，25歲開始工作65歲退休者才能累積足以支應適足所得替代率50％-60％的給付。 第二個模擬部份為給定利率時間序列的情境假設，在此給定簡單的七種利率情境假設，其他精算假設則同樣根據台灣的經濟環境給定之。模擬結果發現，若合併提撥率為9％，基金提撥累積期間40年，給付所得替代率對利率的變動敏感性高，只有在累積期間利率穩定成長的情形下，才能累積足夠的退休金，因此，可以表示9％的合併提撥率在其他非樂觀的利率情境假設下，無法達到50％-60的給付所得替代率。 略 / Due to population aging, the countries that operated their Social Security System on pay-as-you-go financial method have begun to encounter the solvency risk due to the growing financial burden. Since the defined contribution (DC) scheme is considered as a fully funded financial system, it could be one of the solutions to avert the upcoming financial crisis. Hence our study is motivated to investigate the current development of the DC scheme and scrutinize its financial adequacy on providing the retirement benefits to its plan participants. First, the features of current public pension programs in the form of the DC plan are surveyed and their progress is reviewed in Chapter 2. Practical applications applying the DC scheme in private sector are also compared and studied in Chapter 3. Secondly, the actuarial models of the proposed DC scheme are built to investigate the adequacy of the retirement benefits in Chapter 4. Computer codes that can be used to simulate the income-replacement ratios by giving the actuarial assumptions are programmed. Based on this approach, the relationship between income-replacement ratios and the actuarial assumptions (i.e., the interest rate, the salary increase and the inflation rate) can be obtained. In Chapter 5, sensitivity analyses of the benefit adequacy through computer simulations incorporating possible scenarios are performed. The recent proposal of reforming Taiwan Employee Retirement Income Security Act (TERISA) is investigated. An explicit actuarial model closely following this proposal is built to study its impact on the retirement benefits. Finally the empirical results based on this study are summarized. Based on the scenarios under the current economic perspectives, we found the contribution rate at 6% can not attain the income-replacement ratio at 50%. Only over certain optimal interest rates, the retiree can receive the projected income-replacement ratio given the contribution rate at 9%. Based on the proposed draft in reforming the benefit scheme, the retirement benefits are not sufficient to achieve the income-replacement ratio at 50% unless the contribution rates increase to 12%.

本文採用LIBOR市場利率模型評價確定提撥制退休金計畫所附之收益率保證，此保證收益率連結至隨機LIBOR市場利率，在相關的文獻上(特別在隨機利率方面)，尚未有相關的研究。本文同時考慮兩種保證型態：到期日保證與多期保證，運用平賭過程理論，在延伸之LIBOR市場利率模型(ELMM)下推導此兩種保證的理論公式解。相較於其他利率模型或HJM模型，採用ELMM所推得之評價公式更適合於實務運用。為供實務運用，文中並探討如何進行參數校準，亦進行蒙地卡羅模擬以驗證模型理論解的準確性。 / We derive the pricing formulas for the guarantees embedded in defined contribution (DC) pension plans with the guaranteed minimum rate of return set relative to a LIBOR interest rate. The guaranteed rate associated with a stochastic LIBOR interest rate has not yet been studied in the relevant literature, particularly in the presence of stochastic interest rates. An extended LIBOR market model (LMM) is employed to price the interest rate guarantees embedded in DC pension plans under maturity and multi-period guarantees. The pricing formulas derived under the extended LMM are more tractable and feasible for practice than those derived under the instantaneous short rate models or the HJM model. Calibration procedures are also discussed for practical implementation. Monte Carlo simulation is provided to evaluate the accuracy of the theoretical results.

世界各國人口結構持續改變，高齡化社會正逐漸成形，退休金制度的良窳已成為一國人口未來福利是否受到保障的最關鍵因素。各國政府勞退制度之改革最普遍的就是推動以「確定給付制」改為「確定提撥制」。我國勞工退休金政策亦於2005年7月正式實施勞工退休金新制，以「個人退休金專戶」為中心的「確定提撥制」逐漸取代「確定給付制」之勞退舊制。惟與其他國家最大不同是我國退休基金的管理與運用乃由政府統籌辦理，屬於集中管理模式；反觀先進國家勞工退休金其會員則可依個人風險承擔程度自由選擇投資不同類型退休基金，故自我國勞退新制實施以來，勞工是否傾向自行決定退休金運用方式就值得探討。然2008年金融海嘯發生，勞退基金首次發生虧損，勞工退休金開放自行選擇投資組合是否依然可行？ 本研究之研究方法包括文獻分析法，藉由世界主要國家退休金制度的變革，了解國際間對於勞工自行選擇退休金運用方式之概況與趨勢發展，並比較主要各國運用方式，發現目前國際間採用確定提撥制的國家已多數可由勞工自行選擇退休基金方案；另外採行問卷調查，針對全國總工會之勞工代表與幹部以問卷方式調查其對勞工退休基金運用的看法，發現大部分工會代表在金融海嘯前後均傾向選擇自選，而在教育程度與年齡等變項發現達到顯著性之水準。爰依本研究結論，建議勞工主管單位，應研擬逐步開放的方式推行，且儘速使勞工依個人風險承擔程度，自由選擇不同類型退休基金，並適時給予所需之教育訓練。 / The structure of the world population continues to change; an aging society is gradually taking shape. The virtue of the pension system has become the most critical factor in the future welfare of a country's population. The most of the world‘s governments labor pension system of reform is to promote the "defined benefit" to "defined contribution" system. The new labor pension policy in Taiwan was implemented in July 2005. The individual pension accounts "defined benefit" system was gradually replaced by "defined contribution". But the Taiwan's pension fund management belonging to the centralized management model; which was different with the other countries. On the other hand, other advanced countries, labor pension of its members can choose to invest in different types of pension funds according to personal risk degree of freedom. So the Taiwan’s labor whether the tendency to decide pension use since the implementation of the new labor fun system is worth exploring. In this study, literature analysis was used. We find the international workers to choose the pension use of profiles and the trends by reviewing change of the world's major national pension system. We also found that using defined contribution system in the world the pension fund program was chosen freely by the majority workers. In addition, by using the questionnaire survey of labor representatives and cadres of the China Federation of Trade Unions, we found that the majority of union representatives tend to select the optional before and after the financial tsunami. The level of education and age variables to reach a significant level. In accordance with these conclusions, we recommended that the labor unit in charge opening the way to implement should be developed gradually. To bear the degree of labor as soon as possible according to individual risk, freedom to choose different types of pension funds, and timely given the required training.

Abstract Authors:Stefan Harrå and Magnus Björk Advisor: Markku Penttinen Title: Accounting Consequences of the change in pension accounting Background to problem: When the revised IAS 19 comes into force January 1, 2013, it means that two of the three accounting principles for defined benefit pension plans are disappearing, including the corridor method. The corridor method has made it possible for companies to defer its actuarial gains and losses. Now that the corridor approach abolished then the unrecognized actuarial gains and losses immediately be covered by equity, which involves very large amounts of some companies. Why the amounts have grown so big is much because of the discount rate. The discount rate is a controversial parameter, and there is disagreement on how it should be fixed. Purpose: The purpose of this thesis is to examine the accounting implications this will have for the company applied the corridor method, and if there is some parameters in the actuarial assumption that is more important than others. Methodology: The thesis has mainly been based on a qualitative research through qualitative interviews with a small sample that is affected by this change. There are quantitative elements to a greater depth by examining the annual reports, discount and deferred pension liabilities of the various companies. The approach is exploratory as it is a qualitative study and there was little knowledge of the subject before the work of it started. Therefore, a study of literature, regulations and previous research before the empirical study. This made it possible to gain a broader understanding of the subject and to shape relevant and essential interview questions. Conclusions: The conclusion shows that the largest accounting consequences for the companies in the study in conjunction with the change is that the unrecognized actuarial gains and losses will now be covered by equity and that the expected return on plan assets is based on the discount rate. The study also shows that it is the discount rate which is considered the most important parameter that the companies are looking at in the actuarial assumption. The conclusion also provides a shared sense of the true and fair picture of the companies after the revised IAS 19. Suggestions for further research: That after 2013 to study how the actual result of this rule change did this compare to the expected. Look at the problem of determining the discount rate. How will the IASB look at it if more and more begin to deviate from the standard? Keywords: "IAS 19", "IAS 19 revised", "corridor method", "pension accounting", "pension liabilities", "defined contribution plans", "actuarial assumptions", "actuarial gains and losses" and "discount rate".