摘要 衡量壽險公司利率風險的初步作法是估算保單的存續期間。保單的存續期間因現金流量模式的不同與一般債券的存續期間有很大的差異。壽險保單未來不只會產生現金流出 （給付和費用），還會有現金流入（保費），其淨現金流量因而有可能變號，所以壽險保單的存續期問可能小於○，也可能大於到期日，甚至還可能因為準備金接近○的關係而有很大的數值。此外，保單的存續期間不太受死亡率下降的影響，解約率升高通常會使存續期問的數值降低，而佣金的平準化則會使原本正的存續期問變小。從壽險公司銷售保單組合可能的結果（平穩、成長、衰退等三種型態）來分析負債存續期間，由其結果可知一個新創立或成長型的壽險公司其所面臨利率風險的衝擊要大於一個處於平穩型或衰退型的壽險公司。 關鍵字：存續期間、利率風險、淨現金流量、壽險保單、準備金 / Abstract Estimating the duration of the life insurance policy is the first step in measuring the interest rate risk of the life insurance company. Life insurance policy's duration is quite different from bond's due to the difference in the pattern of cash flows. Life insurance policies generate not only cash outflows as payments to policyholders from insurance companies but also cash inflows as premiums from policyholders to insurers. Furthermore, the net cash flow usually turns from inflow to outflow as time goes by. The duration of the life insurance policy therefore could be negative or longer than the maturity of the policy. It could even be huge if its reserve is close to zero. Besides, the mortality rate does not have a significant impact on policy duration; early surrenders of policies would reduce policy duration in general; and leveling commission rate would make positive duration smaller. Findings concluding from analyzing the likely results, referring to the steadying, growing and declining modes, of insurance portfolios offered by life insurance companies for analyzing their liability duration, indicate that the interest rate risk exposure by a start-up life insurance company or a growing life insurance company is greater than a life insurance company that is at a steadying or declining phase. Keywords: duration, interest rate risk, net cash flow, life insurance policies, reserve.

本文主要關注：何種原因造成2011年阿拉伯之春期間的內戰發生與否。在評估由Boix、Collier和Hoeffler，以及Fearon和Laitin所提出的內戰理論後，我發現單獨適用Collier和Hoeffler即可有效又簡約地解釋阿拉伯之春期間的情況。此外，我認為「和平持續期」(peace duration)和「半民主」(anocracy)可能是內戰的必要條件。為了進一步確認理論的解釋力，我將焦點轉移至探索造成理論預測例外（如阿爾及利亞和利比亞）的原因。最後，我提出對理論發展和政策的一些建議。 / The main concern of this study lies in what is the cause behind whether civil war broke out during the Arab Spring (2011). By evaluating civil war theories by Boix, Collier and Hoeffler, and Fearon and Laitin, I find that applying the theory by Collier and Hoeffler alone can effectively and parsimoniously explains the situation during the Arab Spring. In addition, I identify two variables: “peace duration” and “anocracy”, which might be the necessary conditions behind the civil wars during the Arab Spring. To further assure the explanatory power of theories, I switch the focus to explore the reasons why there are exceptions, such as Algeria and Libya, out of the theoretical prediction. Finally, I present some recommendations for theoretical development and policy.

Background: Breastfeeding confers health and social benefits on both mother and baby and is thus a key global public health priority, with exclusive breastfeeding for the first six months recommended. A variety of factors can influence a woman’s decision to initiate breastfeeding but a short duration of breastfeeding appears to be common in developed countries. In the UK, promotion of breastfeeding has been government policy since 1974 and gradually the incidence has increased. In Scotland in 2010 the incidence was 74% but by one week 17% of women had given up. A minority of women find that their babies attach easily at birth and more than half report problems at this time. The prevalence of exclusive breastfeeding falls sharply in the first few weeks and the introduction of formula is associated with a shorter duration. It is therefore crucial to understand what happens at this time to enable women to continue breastfeeding effectively. Study Aim: To use Social Cognitive Theory (SCT) to explore and help explain the expectations, knowledge and experiences of women and midwives with regard to breastfeeding initiation. Methods: A systematic review of qualitative studies synthesised using thematic analysis and SCT was conducted and afforded insight into what had been known before and highlighted further aspects that needed to be explored with a qualitative study. The qualitative study was comprised of five focus groups with ten antenatal women, eight postnatal women and eighteen midwives. Photographs included in a leaflet “Feeding cues at birth”, and the chart of “Feeding cues after the first few hours” were developed and used as focussing exercises during the focus groups and interviews. The focus groups and interviews were recorded, transcribed and analysed using a hybrid process of inductive and deductive thematic analysis which integrated data driven codes with theory driven codes based on SCT. Results: Twenty one studies were included in the systematic review and identified clear differences in the experiences of women when breastfeeding was going well as compared to when it was going wrong at the start. There were also differences in the midwives’ knowledge, experience and confidence when breastfeeding was going well in contrast to when it was going wrong. The synthesis did not identify any qualitative studies relevant to initiation which explored skin contact, instinctive behaviour or strategies to resolve failure to attach in the first few days after birth, from the perspectives of mothers and midwives. These topics were therefore explored in detail in the qualitative study. Few mothers recruited to my study experienced instinctive behaviour and successful attachment (in SCT enactive behaviour) at birth. The majority of mothers did not experience attachment at birth and struggled to persist and maintain their motivation to enable breastfeeding initiation in an unfamiliar environment. Midwives’ social expectations and environmental circumstances made women centred care difficult. Midwives considered that sleepy babies who were unable to feed were normal, but women were unprepared for this, compounding the difficulties in initiating breastfeeding. The triangulation of the findings from the systematic review and the qualitative study provide a more complete picture of contributory factors to understanding of difficulties in breastfeeding initiation. Conclusion: It is recognised that behaviour interacts with emotions, perceived abilities and the environment, as in triadic reciprocal causation, which affects peoples’ decisions, experiences and abilities to enable the successful initiation of breastfeeding. Social Cognitive Theory could be used as a framework to develop strategies and materials to enhance women’s confidence both antenatally and in the postnatal period. In a minority of women, breastfeeding goes well and is more likely when the baby is an active participant and the midwife a knowledgeable and confident supporter. This is not the case for the majority of women and babies or their midwives. There is a need to consider strategies to develop appropriate skills and environmental changes that would in turn lead to changes in behaviour and successful interventions. More emphasis should be made clinically on facilitating instinctive behaviour. The current position where babies’ sleepy behaviour is considered normal in this particular environment could be challenged. Social Cognitive Theory could be utilised in research to develop strategies to increase women’s and midwives’ confidence specifically in initiation.

No description available.

This thesis is an approximation of several years spent in the studio. It represents an equitable exercise of memory and speculation.

Cette recherche s’intéresse au phénomène qu’est l’allongement de la durée des conventions collectives. Avant juin 1994, la durée maximale d’une convention collective était fixée à trois ans. La venue de la mondialisation a chamboulé les entreprises qui, elles, pour s’adapter et survivre à cette nouvelle réalité et demeurer compétitives, ont dû procéder à des investissements majeurs, des restructurations, miser sur des relations de partenariat avec les syndicats, etc. (Boivin, 1998). Pour ce faire, elles devaient s’assurer d’obtenir une stabilité et une paix industrielle (Grant et Paquet, 1998). C’est à ce moment que nous avons vu l’apparition d’ententes qui visaient à prolonger la durée maximale des conventions collectives, fixées à trois ans, sans contrevenir aux différentes dispositions du Code du travail (L.R.Q. c.C-27). Ces « contrats sociaux » devaient compter différentes caractéristiques particulières. C’est le 10 mai 1994 que le législateur québécois a déplafonné la durée des conventions collectives (Mayer, 1999). Tel qu’établi, les transformations au niveau de l’environnement ont poussé les acteurs à revoir leurs façons de faire. Cela a mené à une déconflictualisation des relations du travail (Jalette, Bourque et Laroche, 2008). Les acteurs ont adopté des stratégies de négociation de plus en plus coopératives, ils ont eu un recours accru à la concertation, et ont développé une relation de partenariat (Maschino et coll., 2001). Nous observons en parallèle à une tendance à l’allongement de la durée des conventions collectives. Nous nous questionnons à savoir ce qui a principalement motivé autant les syndicats à négocier ce type d’entente et ainsi, renoncer à leur droit de grève, et aussi quels sont les avantages ou inconvénients pour les employeurs de négocier de telles ententes. De manière plus spécifique, notre question de recherche est la suivante : Quels sont les effets de l’allongement de la durée des conventions collectives sur les relations du travail locales en entreprise? Notre analyse vise à vérifier six propositions de recherche : 1- Les relations du travail sont transformées par la durée d’une convention collective de travail, laquelle est influencée par l’environnement. 2- L’allongement de la durée des conventions collectives de travail amène les parties à davantage recourir à des stratégies de négociation intégrative. 3- L’allongement de la durée des conventions collectives de travail contribue à diminuer le nombre de conflits de travail 4- L’allongement de la durée des conventions collectives de travail change la nature des manifestations du conflit sur le marché du travail. 5- L’allongement de la durée des conventions collectives transforme le contenu des conventions collectives de travail par l’intégration de clauses nouvelles. 6- L’allongement de la durée des CCT diminue le rapport de force du syndicat. Dans le but de répondre à ces différents questionnements, nous avons utilisé une méthodologie qualitative de recherche et plus précisément, l’étude de cas. Cette dernière fut conduite en trois étapes : la préparation, la collecte de données et l’interprétation (Merriam, 1998). Les données de notre étude ont été colligées durant l’été et l’automne 2010. Tout d’abord, nous avons effectué des entretiens semi structuré à l’aide d’une grille d’entrevue. Cette grille d’entrevue fut adaptée en fonction des acteurs rencontrés, et surtout de la partie qu’ils représentent. Nous avons interrogé les acteurs tant patronaux que syndicaux, c’est-à-dire : du côté patronal, nous avons rencontré les responsables des relations du travail oeuvrant au siège social ainsi que les conseillers en relations du travail en charge de négocier ou d’appliquer la convention collective des différents établissements couverts par l’étude. Du côté syndical, nous avons rencontré les conseillers syndicaux en charge également de négocier la convention collective et de veiller à son application. Au total, nous avons mené onze entretiens. En guise de comparaison, nous avons aussi procédé à une analyse de contenu de 139 conventions collectives du secteur de l’alimentation. Nous cherchions à savoir si les conventions collectives de longue durée avaient tendance à comporter majoritairement une plus grande présence de clauses en lien avec les 7 caractéristiques des « contrats sociaux » mentionnées par Mayer (1999). Ces caractéristiques sont les suivantes : transparence économique et de gestion, participation à la gestion, programme de qualité totale, formation, flexibilité dans l’organisation du travail, stabilité de l’emploi et mécanismes de gestion de l’entente. Mots clés : allongement, durée, conventions collectives, relations du travail, loi 116, déplafonnement des conventions collectives, NBI et concertation. / Our research examines a recent phenomenon: the lengthening of the duration of collective agreements. The maximum duration of a collective agreement used to be three years. With the advent of globalization, all has changed drastically. In order to survive and remain competitive, businesses have had to adjust to this new paradigm by investing massively, restructuring, building on renewed partnerships with the unions and the like (Boivin, 1998). To succeed, it was imperative that they foster a climate characterized by stability and industrial peace (Grant and Paquet, 1998). Thus, they started to sign agreements seeking to extend the maximum duration of collective contracts (usually three years), while abiding by the provisions of the Code du travail (L.R.Q. c. C-27). These so-called « social covenants » had to embody various specificities. Then, on May 10, 1994, the Québec government lifted the ceiling on the duration of collective agreements (Mayer, 1999). As previously mentioned, increased globalization, with its attending changes, spurred all stakeholders to modify their ways of doing business. Labor relations were no longer a major source of conflict (Jalette, Bourque and Laroche, 2008). Negotiation strategies were increasingly steeped in cooperation and consensus-building, and the negotiating parties developed a relationship akin to a partnership (Maschino et al., 2001). At the same time, the duration of collective agreements has started increasing. We will examine what motivated the unions to negotiate such agreements, thus surrendering their right to strike and also whatever benefits – or drawbacks – such a trend held in store for the employers. More specifically, we will endeavor to find out: What are the effects of increasing the duration of collective agreements on local labor relations? For the purpose of our analysis, we have formulated the following research hypotheses: 1. Labor relations undergo transformations as a result of the duration of a collective agreement being increased; said duration hinging on the business climate. 2. With longer-term collective agreements, negotiating parties apply better co-operative strategies. 3. Longer-term collective agreements reduce the number of labor conflicts 4. Longer-term collective agreements change the way these conflicts play out in the workplace. 5. Longer collective agreement periods transform collective agreement contents by the addition of new provisions. 6. Longer-term collective agreements weaken the unions negotiating position. While aiming to address the aforementioned hypotheses, we have opted for a qualitative research methodology, namely the case study. The process involved three steps: data preparation, collection and interpretation (Merriam, 1998). The data we used were collected over the summer and fall of 2010. First, we conducted semi-structured interviews using a specific interview grid, which we adjusted according to individual respondents and, first and foremost, the parties they represented. Thus, we interviewed stakeholders from both sides, unions and employers. On the employers’ side, we met labor relations specialists working out of head offices as well as labor relations consultants responsible for negotiating or enforcing the collective agreements in force in various organizations covered by our study. On the union side, we met with union representatives who were also responsible for negotiating or enforcing the collective agreements. Eleven interviews were conducted in total. As a means of comparison, we also analyzed the content of 139 collective agreements in the food sector. We wanted to determine if most long-term collective agreements tended to include a greater amount of provisions related to the seven elements typical of the « social covenants » mentioned in Mayer, 1999. These are: economic and managerial transparency, shared management, total quality programs, training, work-planning flexibility, employment stability and collective agreement management processes. Key words: long-term agreements, duration, collective agreements, labor relations, Bill 116, IBN (interest-based negotiation) and consensus-building.

L’objectif général de la thèse était d’élargir les connaissances scientifiques sur le sommeil des enfants. La thèse est composée de quatre articles empiriques. Le premier visait à estimer la validité de l’actigraphie comme mesure de sommeil chez les enfants d’âge préscolaire en la comparant à la polysomnographie, et à examiner si son emplacement influence sa validité. 12 enfants âgés de 2 à 5 ans ont porté simultanément un actigraphe à la cheville et un au poignet pendant une nuit d’enregistrement polysomnographique. Les résultats démontrent que l’actigraphie permet une bonne détection du sommeil, mais qu’elle détecte moins bien l’éveil. Cet article suggère également que les jeunes enfants nécessitent un algorithme adapté à leur niveau d’activité nocturne. Enfin, la validité de l'actigraphie semble similaire pour le poignet et la cheville. Le deuxième article visait à comparer trois mesures de sommeil souvent utilisées avec de jeunes enfants, soit les agendas de sommeil, l’échelle des problèmes de sommeil du Child Behavior Checklist (CBCL) et l’actigraphie, afin de déterminer leurs similarités et leurs divergences quant aux variables de sommeil qui en sont dérivées. 80 familles ont participé à cette étude lorsque les enfants étaient âgés de 2 ans. Les enfants ont porté un actigraphe durant 72 heures consécutives et les mères ont complété un agenda de sommeil durant cette même période. Les deux parents ont aussi rempli le CBCL. Les résultats démontrent que ces mesures de sommeil évaluent des aspects différents du sommeil de l’enfant, et suggèrent une concordance particulièrement faible entre les mesures subjectives et objectives. Le troisième article visait à évaluer l’apport unique de la sécurité d’attachement dans la prédiction du sommeil de l’enfant. 62 dyades mère-enfant ont été rencontrées à deux reprises. La sécurité d’attachement et la dépendance ont été évaluées par observation à l’aide du Q-Sort d’attachement lorsque l’enfant avait 15 mois. À l’âge de 2 ans, les enfants ont porté un actigraphe durant 3 jours consécutifs. Les résultats indiquent que la sécurité d'attachement a une contribution unique à la prédiction de la durée du sommeil nocturne et de l'efficacité du sommeil nocturne. Ainsi, cette étude suggère que plus les enfants ont un attachement sécurisant envers leur mère, plus grandes sont la durée et la qualité de leur sommeil quelques mois plus tard. Le quatrième article visait à examiner la relation entre le sommeil et les comportements extériorisés. 64 familles ont participé à cette étude. À l’âge de 2 ans, les enfants ont porté un actigraphe durant 72 heures consécutives et les parents ont complété le CBCL. Lorsque les enfants étaient âgés de 4 ans, les parents ainsi que l’éducateur(trice) de garderie ont rempli le CBCL. Les résultats démontrent que le sommeil de l’enfant est associé aux comportements extériorisés concomitants et à l’augmentation de ceux-ci à travers le temps. Par ailleurs, les relations entre la qualité de sommeil et les comportements extériorisés étaient modérées par le sexe de l’enfant, c’est-à-dire significatives seulement chez les garçons. Les résultats des quatre articles sont finalement intégrés dans la discussion générale. / The overall objective of the thesis was to contribute to the expansion of the current state of knowledge on young children’s sleep. The thesis consists of four empirical articles. The first article compared the validity of three algorithms for detecting sleep with actigraphy by comparing them to polysomnography in preschoolers. The putative influence of device location (wrist or ankle) was also examined. 12 children aged 2 to 5 years simultaneously wore an actigraph on an ankle and a wrist during a night of polysomnography recording at home. The results showed that actigraphy generally provides good detection of sleep, but weaker detection of wakefulness. The article also suggests that young children require an algorithm adapted to their level of nocturnal motor activity. Finally, sleep variables derived from the ankle and wrist were not statistically different, suggesting that the validity of the actigraphy is not influenced by the location of the monitor. The second article examined associations between actigraphy, maternal sleep diaries, and the parent-completed Child Behavior Checklist (CBCL) sleep items, which are instruments widely used by clinicians and researchers to assess sleep among young children. 80 middle-class families participated in this study when children were aged 2 years. Children wore an actigraph monitor for a 72-hour period and mothers completed a sleep diary during the same period. Both parents also completed the CBCL. The results show that these sleep measures assess different aspects of children’s sleep, and suggest a particularly low concordance between the subjective and objective sleep measures. The third article used objective measures of sleep and attachment to assess the longitudinal links between mother-child attachment security and subsequent sleep, while partialling out child dependency. 62 middle-class families were met twice. Security and dependency of attachment were assessed with the observer version of the Attachment Q-Sort when the child was 15 months. At the age of 2 years, children wore an actigraph monitor for a 72-hour period. Results indicated that children more securely attached to their mothers had higher nighttime sleep duration and efficiency, and these predictions were not confounded by child dependency. The aim of the fourth article was to investigate the concurrent and longitudinal relations between sleep and externalizing symptoms among young children. Sixty-four families were met twice. At the age of 2 years, children wore an actigraph monitor for a 72- hour period and both mothers and fathers completed the CBCL. When children were aged 4 years, both parents as well as the daycare educator filled the CBCL. The results show that child sleep is associated with concurrent externalizing symptoms and with an increase in externalizing symptoms over time. Associations between sleep efficiency and externalizing symptoms were moderated by child sex, such that links were only significant among boys. Finally, the results of the four articles are integrated into the general discussion.

La présente thèse rend compte de la dimension affective de la communication. Pour ce faire, l’expérience est d’abord considérée comme durée qualitative (Henri Bergson). Donc, l’expérience est mouvement. Point de départ : le mouvement comme caractéristique intrinsèque du corps qui, ainsi compris, devient un point de passage. Qu’est-ce qui le traverse? Des événements. Il se constitue par ce passage même, ce qui fait de lui un devenir-corps. Ici, toute expérience est acte de communication à son stade le plus pur. Qui est-ce qui communique? L’expérience est une occasion d’actualisation du virtuel. Il s’agit de l’actualisation d’une force virtuelle – que A. N. Whitehead appelle la forme subjective. Le sens du message est l’événement lui-même, c’est-à-dire ce qui émerge dans l’expérience (Gilles Deleuze). Non pas l’expérience subjective d’un sujet préconstitué, mais l’expérience pure, telle que définie par William James : une relationalité. Ce qui s’actualise est une tonalité affective (Whitehead), vécue comme qualité esthétique. Quels sont les facteurs constitutifs du sens? Élargissons la traditionnelle dualité sujet-objet à un complexe relationnel : nous pouvons ainsi percevoir des acteurs affectifs, perceptifs, humains et technologiques, dans un agencement qui se concrétise comme relationalité émergente. Tout événement est situé. Par conséquent, l’émergence du sens devient acte de co-création dans lequel participent les multiples facteurs qui conditionnent l’événement. Cette vision sort d’un anthropocentrisme pour concevoir l’événement lui-même comme sujet de ses propres expériences (Whitehead). De sorte que, tout comme chaque acte de communication, l’expérience des médias est aussi événement vécu. Ce dernier est incorporé par les dimensions du devenir-corps – la conscience-affective et la conscience-réflexive. Celles-ci sont si intimement interreliées qu’elles deviennent mutuellement inclusives dans l’expérience et totalement actives dans l’actualisation du sens. / The present thesis contributes to the understanding of the affective dimension of communication. Experience is first considered as a qualitative duration, and thus as movement (Henri Bergson). The point of departing is movement as an intrinsic characteristic of the body. Thus understood, the body becomes a point of passage. What is it that passes through the body? Events. The body is constituted by this passage itself, which makes it into a becoming-body. Here, every experience is an act of communication in its purest state. Experience is an occasion for the actualisation of the virtual. It consists in the actualisation of a virtual force - which A. N. Whitehead calls the subjective form. The sense of the message is the event itself: that which emerges in the experience (Gilles Deleuze). Not the subjective experience of a preconstituted subject, but pure experience, as defined by William James: a relationality. That which actualises itself is an affective tonality (Whitehead), felt as an aesthetic quality. What are the constitutive factors of sense? The traditional duality subject-object must be enlarged into a relational complex: we can thus perceive affective, perceptive, human and technological actors in an assemblage that realizes itself as an emerging relationality. Every event is situated. Consequently, the emergence of sense becomes an act of co-creation in which the multiple factors conditioning the event participate. Who communicates? This act of co-creation communicates itself. This vision departs from an anthropocentrism to conceive the event itself as the subject of its own experiences (Whitehead). As much as every act of communication is a lived event, so too is every media experience. Event is embodied by the dimensions of the becoming-body – affective-consciousness and reflexive-consciousness. These are so intimately interconnected that they become mutually inclusive in experience and totally active in the actualisation of sense.

The aim of this diploma thesis is to closely investigate and describe selected phonetic properties of Czech oral plosives [p t ť k b d ď g] in normal speech. The re- search focuses mostly on temporal characteristics in various contexts; moreover, we deal with the possible manners of plosive articulation in Czech, including non-canonical realizations. Another important part of the present study is a comparison with earlier studies. In the domain of temporal characteristics we examine the influence of various contexts on phone duration. The contexts include: phonetic context, speaker gender, the position of the plosive in the stress unit or articulation rate. We also examine a possible connection between the duration of the plosive and its realization. In the part that deals with the manner of articulation we focus on the individual phonetic properties, for which we investigate especially the conditions and degree of their stability. Furthermore we describe the specific plosive articulations in certain pho- netic contexts and some alternative realizations of certain plosives. The speech material used is mostly spontaneous. All the speakers are non- professionals from various TV broadcasts. Keywords: plosives, duration, phone segmentation, phonetic properties, pho- netic context, gender, articulation...

本論文旨在討論內戰持續性的差異是否可以以其政治轉型解釋？也就是說，作者欲探討為何有些內戰較短、有些內戰較長？是否有關鍵因素導致內戰持續性之差別。目前學術研究多著重於以非政治因素（經濟因素）解釋內戰延續性問題，但筆者認為政治制度相對於其他因素（經濟、社會制度）是最能解釋內戰持續性差異之自變數，並提出本文核心假設－「內戰隨著政體的民主深化而縮短。」，其主因有三：（一）生活於民主政權下的人民，政治壓迫感較小（二）民主促進社會的重新分配（Redistributive）消弭國內之不平等狀況；（三）民主政府能透過稅收進行公共財的施放或公共服務滿足人民。 本文之研究方法以質性分析法的個案研究法為主，以南美洲作為研究對象而不以內戰發生最頻繁的非洲為研究對象，乃因2016年11月13日哥倫比亞政府正式與左翼武裝「哥倫比亞革命軍」（FARC）簽署修正版和平協議，結束長達半世紀的敵對狀態，引發作者對南美洲內戰延續性之研究興趣。經過最大相似法篩選後，作者以哥倫比亞與哥倫比亞革命軍和秘魯與光明之路的內戰作為個案案例，透過個案研究法，本文研究發現符合筆者之核心假設。筆者認為本文之內戰研究發現提供受內戰影響之國際社會、國家有關政治制度面之政策方向－即民主深化對於一國內戰延續性之影響力。