本文主要針對台幣兌換美元的匯價，採用移動平均法則給定的交易訊號模擬交易，透過模擬交易得到顯著異於零的超額報酬，試著利用條件資本資產定價模型解釋超額報酬與風險之間的關係。實證結果顯示：在傳統資本資產定價模型下，超額報酬無法透過承擔風險所獲得風險貼水來解釋，但加入金融危機事件的影響後，發現在金融危機期間，市場風險係數下降，異常報酬增加，表示在此期間，即使市場大盤表現不佳，技術分析仍能成功捕捉台幣兌換美元的匯價變動趨勢，使金融危機期間的技術交易報酬平均高於金融危機前後。

資本適足率（capital adequacy ratio，即實業界所稱之BIS比率）為金融界評估商銀風險之重要指標，在反映資本結構以至於倒閉風險的意義上，相較於財務分析常用的權益值對總資產比率，BIS比率應是一個更精確的指標。本研究先藉資本市場銀行股長天期窗口超額報酬率反映投資人所要求報酬中之風險貼水，探討投資人是否可以引用資本適足率衡量國內商銀的倒閉風險與流動性風險。此外，本研究亦針對壞帳費用與票券買賣損益兩項富裁量空間之科目，分析國內商業銀行策略性操縱帳面盈餘與資本問題。最後，就現行我國資本適足率規定之缺失，作進一步之檢討，並檢測調整部份風險性資產之風險權數後，對資本適足率解釋投資人所要求必要報酬間關係之影響。 實證結果發現，不論是商銀呈報金融主管機關之資本適足率，或是就銀行所發布資料，儘可能比照公訂資本適足率核算辦法所自行設算、不含資產負債表外風險性資產所計算之比值，甚至自行設算、僅考慮自有資本中之第一類資本（Tier 1 Capital）估算值，均與商銀股市超額報酬有顯著之負血關係，顯示資本適足率對投資人而言，屬攸關資訊，能幫助評估銀行倒閉風險，進而決定其所要求之必要報酬率。又國內商銀中，民營銀行股超額報酬對資本適足率之迴歸係數，較公營銀行更具負向關係，而民國八十一年後新成立之銀行對資本適足率之迴歸係數，亦較八十一年前成立之舊銀行更具負向關係，而景氣較蕭條時，資本適足率與報酬間之關係並未較繁榮期敏感。 在盈餘與資本調控部份，或因使用不同調控工具之成本差異，致使商業銀行在帳面資本不足時，傾向于增加提列壞帳費用；另一方面，銀行似乎為了損益平穩化之目的，而以多實現或少實現票券買賣損益作為調控當期盈餘之工具，此兩項潛在之盈餘調控工具，彼此間有著相互替代代，惟因實現票券買賣損益之成本因時而異，國內商業銀行引用此兩項工具相互替補的程度實隨資本市場榮枯而改變。在估算國內商銀壞帳費用不可裁量部份時，本研究發現以上期壞帳、本期逾催收款、應收匯兌承兌款及無擔保放款餘額估計壞帳，比過動國外文獻所採變數組更恰當。 / This thesis empirically examines the explanatory power of capital adequacy ratio (BIS ratio) to Taiwan's commercial bank long-windowed returns minus risk-free rates (hereafter excess return), investigating whether the ratio serves to measure the level of risk of these banks equity securities. Findings indicate the followings: (1) ceteris paribus, long-windowed bank returns negatively correlate with each and every measure of BIS ratio in this study. These results are consistent with the notion that capital adequacy ratio conveys relevant information regarding the bank shareholders risk; (2) required rate of security returns appears to be more (less) sensitive to the BIS ratio for banks founded after (prior to) 1992 and for non-state-owned (state-owned) commercial banks; (3) there is not corroborative evidence that macro-economic variables have incremental explanatory power to the regression coefficient for the BIS ratio. Further, by identifying and examining the potential discretionary components of Taiwan's commercial bank loan loss provisions (LLPs) and securities gains and losses (RSGs), this study aims at exploring these banks' accruals management practices. Robust against various sensitivity tests, empirical findings support the notion that commercial banks strategically increase their LLPs to avoid unfavorable capital adequacy ratios. On the other hand, this study finds these banks smooth reported earnings via RSGs. Moreover, our evidence is consistent with the hypothesis that LLPs and RSGs serve as substitutes for each other in commercial bank accruals management. However, the extent these banks exercise discretion via either measure varies with domestic capital market performance. For tests in this study, the specification of simultaneous equations outperforms the competing ordinary least square regression models. This study also provides an innovative design for estimating bank loan loss provisions. As compared with competing designs, our model, which relates commercial bank LLPs to non-performing assets, unsecured loans, accrued acceptances and prior-period loan loss provisions, produce a more efficient predictor for Taiwan's commercial bank LLPs.

Submitted by Cristiane Shirayama (cristiane.shirayama@fgv.br) on 2011-08-20T19:03:03Z No. of bitstreams: 1 DISSERT_CAROLINA RIBEIRO VERONESE MARINHO.pdf: 751914 bytes, checksum: ca939f859bd1eccec552deb6102fbf7a (MD5) / Approved for entry into archive by Gisele Isaura Hannickel (gisele.hannickel@fgv.br) on 2011-08-22T12:09:09Z (GMT) No. of bitstreams: 1 DISSERT_CAROLINA RIBEIRO VERONESE MARINHO.pdf: 751914 bytes, checksum: ca939f859bd1eccec552deb6102fbf7a (MD5) / Approved for entry into archive by Gisele Isaura Hannickel (gisele.hannickel@fgv.br) on 2011-08-22T12:14:55Z (GMT) No. of bitstreams: 1 DISSERT_CAROLINA RIBEIRO VERONESE MARINHO.pdf: 751914 bytes, checksum: ca939f859bd1eccec552deb6102fbf7a (MD5) / Made available in DSpace on 2011-08-22T12:21:14Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 DISSERT_CAROLINA RIBEIRO VERONESE MARINHO.pdf: 751914 bytes, checksum: ca939f859bd1eccec552deb6102fbf7a (MD5) Previous issue date: 2011-05-19 / This paper’s proposal is to analyze how bond supply is likely to affect yields and the excess return of government bonds. Thus, the study is based on a model built around three agents: the government, preferred habitat investors and arbitrageurs. Consistent with the model, when the government changes the relative maturity of its debt, the entire term structure is affected and the result is intensified for long-term maturities. In addition, results were stronger for almost all maturities when excess return is analyzed. / O presente trabalho tem o objetivo analisar como a oferta de dívida pública é capaz de afetar os yields e o excesso de retorno de títulos públicos. Para tanto, o estudo é baseado em um modelo construído em torno de três agentes, sendo eles o Governo, os investidores com preferência por maturidades específicas e os arbitradores. Consistente com o modelo, observamos que quando o Governo altera a maturidade relativa de sua dívida, toda a estrutura a termo é afetada e esse resultado se intensifica para títulos mais longos. Além disso, os resultados se mostraram mais fortes para quase todas as maturidades quando o excesso de retorno é analisado.

本研究對1985/1至2016/10期間，37種貨幣的超額報酬與國家風險進行實證分析，以The PRS Group發佈的ICRG綜合風險評級做為國家風險的衡量指標。各國貨幣分別進行時間序列分析的結果顯示，單一國家的國家風險與該國貨幣的匯率走勢及超額報酬並不存在顯著的關聯。 投資組合分析的結果，對高國家風險貨幣與低國家風險貨幣分別執行利差交易，結果顯示兩者的超額報酬並沒有顯著差異。而動能策略在高國家風險貨幣則可以獲得顯著較高的超額報酬。 Fama-Macbeth二步驟迴歸分析結果顯示，高國家風險的投資組合確實擁有較高的因子負載量，然而國家風險因子的市場價格，也就是承受一單位 β_CRISK獲得的國家風險溢酬太低不顯著，因此國家風險無法幫助解釋貨幣報酬。 / We empirically investigate the relation between currency excess returns and country risk, as measured by the ICRG comprehensive risk rating issued by The PRS Group, of 37 currencies during 1985/1 to 2016/10. The result of the single currency time series analysis shows that there is no significant correlation between the country risk and the exchange rate movement, also the currency excess return. As a result of the portfolio analysis, there is no significant difference in excess returns when we execute carry trade respectively on high country risk currencies and low country risk currencies. While the momentum strategy in the high country risk currencies can generate significantly higher excess return. The results of the Fama-Macbeth two-step regression show that the high-risk portfolios do have a higher factor loading, whereas the country risk factor's market price, that is, the country risk premium received by a unit of β_CRISK, is too low. Therefore, country risk cannot help explain currency excess return.

Bakgrund Coronapandemin har haft en global påverkan på den finansiella marknaden, inte minst på Stockholmsbörsen, som rasade 11,1 procent under en dag. När det råder en osäkerhet på marknaden ökar informationsasymmetrin mellan marknadsaktörer. Tidigare studier har visat att insiders kunde uppnå överavkastning utifrån insiderinformation under kriser. Insiderhandel kan vanligen tolkas som något olagligt och trots regleringar existerar det fortfarande på marknaden. Antalet misstänkta insiderbrott ökade från 199 till 368 under tidsperioden 2015-2017. Syfte Syftet med denna studie är att analysera om det uppstår överavkastning på Stockholmsbörsen när en vd förvärvar aktier i det egna bolaget genom att studera ett urval av bolag under coronapandemin. Vidare kommer studien även att analysera huruvida det förekommer skillnader i överavkastningen beroende på transaktionsstorlek och storleken på företaget. Metod Studien tillämpar en kvantitativ forskning genom en eventstudie. Vidare tillämpas en deduktiv ansats med sekundärdata från Finansinspektionen och Nasdaq. För att beräkna eventuell överavkastning har den justerade marknadsmodellen använts. Statistiska tester har genomförts i SPSS för att tolka och analysera studiens resultat samt huruvida transaktionsstorlek och företagsstorlek påverkar eventuell överavkastning.Slutsats Utifrån studiens resultat återfinns inga signifikanta resultat under tidsperioden 2019-2021 som visar att det uppstått överavkastning i samband med att företagets vd köpt aktier i bolaget. Studien stödjer inte heller att det återfinns ett samband mellan insiderns avkastning och transaktionsstorlek eller företagsstorlek. Resultatet indikerar på att Stockholmsbörsen kan antas vara effektiv under den studerade perioden / Background: The corona pandemic has had a global impact on the financial market, not least on the Stockholm Stock Exchange, which fell 11.1 percent in one day. When there is uncertainty in the market, the information asymmetry increases. Previous studies have proven that insiders could achieve excess returns based on insider information during crises. Insider trading can usually be interpreted as something illegal and despite regulations, it still exists. The amount of suspected insider crimes increased from 199 to 368 during the period 2015-2017.Purpose: The purpose of this study is to analyze whether there is an excess return on the Stockholm Stock Exchange when a CEO acquires shares in his own company by studying a selection of companies during the corona pandemic. Furthermore, the study will also analyze whether there are differences in the excess return depending on the transaction size and the size of the company.Methodology: The study applies a quantitative research strategy through an event study. A deductive approach is applied with secondary data from Finansinspektionen and Nasdaq OMX Nordic. To calculate excess return, the adjusted market model has been used. Statistical tests have been performed in SPSS to analyze and interpret the results of the study and whether transaction size and company size affect any excess return. Conclusions. Based on the results of the study, there are no significant results during the period 2019-2021 which show that there has been an excess return in connection with the company's CEO buying shares in the company. The study also does not support that there is a connection between the insider's return and transaction size or company size. The result takes us further to the fact that the Stockholm Stock Exchange can be assumed to be efficient during the period studied

Does the 4-factor model have a higher degree of explanation than CAPM and the 3-factor model on the Swedish stock market? The purpose of this thesis is to investigate whether the 4-factor model's ability to explain the systematic risk on the Swedish stock market is better than CAPM and the 3-factor model. Furthermore, we want to investigate whether it is possible to create portfolios based on the 4-factor model that generates excess returns. In addition, we will also compare our results with the results of previous international studies to see what results we get in the Swedish market.

Bakgrund: I den lågräntemiljö som varit under senaste året har allt fler sökt sig till aktiemarknaden för att få avkastning på sina pengar. En teoretisk vattendelare är huruvida det är möjligt att överavkasta marknaden. Detta är ett område som studerats under en längre period där resultat mellan studier skiljer sig. Denna studie undersöker med utgångspunkt i multipelstrategi möjligheten att överavkasta marknadsindex på de nordiska aktiemarknaderna.  Syfte: Studien syftar till att undersöka möjligheten till att generera en överavkastning mot marknadsindex genom en multipelstrategi utifrån multiplarna P/E, P/B, EV/EBITDA samt EV/S på de nordiska aktiemarknaderna. Vidare kommer studien även att jämföra, analysera och diskutera skillnader mellan de olika aktiemarknaderna.  Metod: Studien har använt sig av en kvantitativforsknings ansats med ett deduktivt tillvägagångssätt. Under perioden 2011–2021 skapades 64 portföljer i på den svenska, norska, finska och danska marknaden med 16 i varje land, där de 20 högsta samt lägsta P/E, P/B, EV/S och EV/EBITDA delades in i portföljer och sedan viktades om var tredje och tolfte månad.  Resultat: Studiens resultat visar på att det var möjligt att överavkasta marknadsindex på de olika aktiemarknaderna, det finns dock ingen multipel som påvisar någon signifikans på samtliga marknader. Den portfölj som lyckades prestera bra över flera marknader var låga EV/EBITDA, men den uppvisar enbart signifikans på tre av fyra. Den portfölj som presterade bäst i varje land skiljer sig däremot från varandra. / Background: In the low-interest rate environment that has been in recent years, more and more people have sought out the stock market to gain a return on their money. A theoretical opinion separator is whether it is possible to outperform the market. This is an area that has been studied overa longer period, where results between studies differ. Based on a multiple strategy, this study investigates the possibility of outperforming market indices in the Nordic stock markets. Purpose: The purpose with this study is to see if there is a possibility to generate an excess return towards the market index through a multiple based strategy with P/E, P/B, EV/EBITDA and EV/S onthe Nordic stock markets. Furthermore, the study will compare, analyze and discuss the difference between the Nordic stock markets. Method: The study applies a quantitative method with a deductive approach. During the period 2011-2021 64 portfolios was created for Sweden, Norway, Finland and Denmark with 16 in each countrywith the 20 highest and lowest P/E, P/B, EV/S and EV/EBITDA and had a holding period of either three or twelve months. Results: The study result shows that it is possible to gain an excess return compared to the index in the different comparing markets, though there is not a single multiple that shows a statistic significance in every market. The portfolio that outperformed the index in all markets was EV/EBITDA, but only showed a significance in three out of four. The portfolio that outperformed the market most was different in each country.

In the realm of asset pricing models, the Fama-French five-factor model has become a foundational framework for explaining the variation of excess stock returns. However, as financial markets continue to evolve, there arises a need to explore potential extensions to capture additional sources of risk and return. One such extension involves incorporating the difference between the actual and expected interest rates as an additional factor. This report delves into the empirical testing of this extended model and assesses its implications for explaining the variation of excess returns on the Swedish stock market. The rationale behind introducing such a factor is rooted in its potential to capture variations in excess returns attributed to unexpected changes in interest rates. To evaluate its efficacy, a comprehensive analysis was undertaken, focusing on three key aspects: the statistical significance of the factor, its impact on model fit, and its role in explaining variations in excess returns. Upon conducting time-series regressions across three sets of nine portfolios, it was found that while the factor exhibited notable coefficients with substantial influence on explaining excess returns, it failed to achieve statistical significance. This outcome prompts a crucial question: can an extension with a factor of high explanatory power but low significance truly enhances our understanding of stock returns? The findings suggest that despite its influence, other factors present in the model might already absorb the explanatory potential attributed to the new factor. Further examination of the extended model's performance provides insights into the overall model fit. The GRS statistic indicates that the extended model offers a superior fit compared to the original five-factor model. However, the adjusted R2 values suggest that this enhanced fit is not translated into a meaningful improvement in the model's ability to explain variations in returns. This prompts a nuanced consideration of whether the complexity introduced by the additional factor aligns with its incremental ability to explain variation in returns. / Inom asset pricing models har Fama-French five-factor model blivit ett av de mest grundläggande ramverken för att beskriva variationen i överavkastning. Eftersom finansmarknaderna fortsätter att kontinuerligt utvecklas finns det ett behov av att undersöka potentiella utvidgningar av modellen för att hitta ytterligare källor till risk och avkastning. Ett exempel av en sådan utveckling är att skillnaden mellan faktiska och förväntade räntor läggs till som en ytterligare faktor. I detta arbete utförs empiriska tester för att kunna bedöma om en utvidgad modell kan användas för att kunna beskriva variationen i överavkastning på den svenska aktiemarknaden. Motivation bakom att införa en sådan faktor är dess potentiella kraft i att beskriva variation i överavkastning hänförligt till oförväntade förändringar av räntor. För att utvärdera dess effektivitet utfördes en omfattande analys som fokuserade på tre nyckelaspekter: faktorns statistiska signifikans, dess påverkan på model fit och dess roll för att förklara variation i överavkastning. Efter att ha utfört tidsserieregressioner över tre uppsättningar av nio portföljer, visade det sig att medan faktorn uppvisade anmärkningsvärda koefficienter med betydande inflytande på att förklara variationen i avkastning, var den emellertid ej statistiskt signifikant. Detta utfall ger upphov till en viktig fråga: kan en utvidgad modell med en faktor med stor förmåga att förklara, men med låg signifikans, förbättra vår förståelse av variation i överkastning? Resultaten antyder att trots den nya faktorns förklarande förmåga, har den förklarande förmåga som tillskrivits den nya faktorn redan absorberats av tidigare faktorer i modellen. Vidare undersökning av den utvidgade modellens prestanda ger insikter i hur modellen är anpassad till observationer. GRS-statistiken visar att den utvidgade modellen är bättre anpassad än den ursprungliga modellen. Dock visar adjusted R2 värdena att detta inte översätts till en meningsfull förmåga att beskriva variationen i överavkastning. Detta ger upphov till en diskussion om huruvida den ökade komplexitet som införs är i linje med dess inkrementella värde i att förklara variation i överavkastning.

In this study, we examine the effect of ESG-ranking and strong financial flexibility have on Swedish firms’ stock price during the initial stage of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. This study is based on examining this theme during Russia's invasion of Ukraine with a time frame that lasts during the first half of 2022. The sample for this study is limited to the large index OMXS30 that is part of the Stockholm Stock Exchange. Moreover, in this paper five portfolios have been formed for this purpose, which are divided into high respectively low ESG ranking and high respectively low financial flexibility in comparison to the markets portfolio. The findings in this paper show that the portfolios with Swedish firms that have strong financial flexibility and low ESG-ranking outperform the market portfolio. Meanwhile the portfolios with Swedish firms that have high ESG-ranking and low financial flexibility underperform the market portfolio. In addition to this, the paper found that the Swedish firms with high ESG-ranking have a stable excess return and they are the safest option in terms of investments. While the Swedish firms with strong financial flexibility have high excess return but they are riskier.

Syftet med detta arbete är att undersöka hur överavkastning på aktiebörsen kan uppnås, genom att applicera investeringsstrategier som utgår ifrån portföljanalys. Studien inriktar sig på fastighetsbolag där svenska, europeiska och amerikanska bolag ingår. Metoden utgår ifrån att vikta innehaven i portföljerna genom användningen av finansiella nyckeltal. De beaktade nyckeltalen utgörs av P/E, EV/S, ROIC och soliditet. Portföljerna viktas periodvis utefter ett antal hypoteser som tagits fram. Hypoteserna berör vilka värden på respektive nyckeltal som anses vara mest fördelaktiga ur ett investeringsperspektiv. Studien syftar till att ta fram vilka nyckeltal som är kritiska för en överavkastning i fastighetsaktier. Utfallet av undersökningen visade på en överavkastning i åtta av elva portföljer, vilket togs fram genom användandet av jämförelseindex. Studien ledde fram till slutsatsen att en av fyra hypoteser inte kunde förkastas, medan övriga förkastades med bakgrund av det kvantitativa resultatet. Genom tillämpning av den kvantitativa metod som genomförs i vår studie påvisas att EV/S är det enda nyckeltalet, av urvalet, som en investeringsstrategi kan baseras på för att uppnå en överavkastning gentemot ett relevant index. / This study revolves around reaching high returns on the stock exchange by applying investment strategies based on portfolio analysis. The research focuses on real estate companies within the Swedish, European and American stock exchange. By using financial ratios, P/E, EV/S, ROIC and Equity Ratio, the portfolios and its returns are optimized by a method of weighing. The shares within the portfolios are weighed periodically depending on a variety of hypotheses regarding the financial ratios and its values. The hypotheses have been developed to maximize the returns from an investment perspective. The study is trying to reach a consensus of which financial ratios are crucial within real estate companies to reach a high return. By using different indexes, the result showed that eight out of eleven portfolios reached an excess return. A conclusion was reached; one of four financial ratios are of great importance when trying to reach an excess return by investing in real estate companies. By applying the study’s quantitative method, it is shown that EV/S is the only financial ratio out of the selected that can be used in this investment strategy to achieve excess return, when compared to relevant indexes.