Submitted by Rosivalda Pereira (mrs.pereira@ufma.br) on 2017-05-23T21:23:19Z No. of bitstreams: 1 MariaNunesCarvalho.pdf: 2262222 bytes, checksum: e8a575c927d9726aab5a62238b43275f (MD5) / Made available in DSpace on 2017-05-23T21:23:19Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 MariaNunesCarvalho.pdf: 2262222 bytes, checksum: e8a575c927d9726aab5a62238b43275f (MD5) Previous issue date: 2013-03-15 / The pension benefits of pensions of the General Welfare, paid according to the precepts of the Constitution of 1988 the population residing in the counties of Maranhão point to their significant participation in the local economy. To understand the experience of social security benefits in the municipalities of Maranhão, is essential to look back on the origins of Social Security, as well as its deployment and evolution in Brazil as a public policy of the State and Society. The reflections of the presence of social security benefits on the local economy maranhenses observed either in the composition of the municipal GDP, as in the composition of household income, both calculated by the IBGE. Social indicators HDI and Gini Index from 1991 to 2000 and the Municipal Development Index also reflect the importance of social security benefits for the welfare of the municipal population. The adoption of a policy of regional economic development in the territory Maranhão, combined with the globalized world economy, it is salutary for the municipal economy and Social Security. Maintaining the By-laws of Public Welfare in the Constitution is an important tool in achieving the development and achievement of welfare and social justice for millions of Brazilians. / Os benefícios previdenciários de aposentadorias e pensões do Regime Geral de Previdência Social, pagos conforme os preceitos da Constituição Federal de 1988 à população residente nos municípios do Maranhão, apontam para a sua significativa participação na economia local. Para entender a experiência dos benefícios previdenciários nos municípios do Maranhão é indispensável um olhar retrospectivo sobre a origem da Previdência Social, assim como a sua implantação e evolução no Brasil como uma política pública do Estado e da Sociedade. Os reflexos da presença dos benefícios previdenciárias na economia dos municípios maranhenses podem ser observados tanto na composição do Produto Interno Bruto municipal, como na composição da Renda das famílias, ambos calculados pelo IBGE. Os indicadores sociais como IDH, Índice de Gini e Índice de Desenvolvimento Municipal também refletem a importância dos benefícios previdenciários para o bem estar da população municipal. A adoção de uma política regional de desenvolvimento econômico no território maranhense, articulada com o mundo econômico globalizado, é salutar para a economia municipal e para a Previdência Social. A manutenção dos regramentos da Previdência Social Pública no texto constitucional é uma ferramenta relevante no alcance do desenvolvimento e na conquista do bem-estar e da justiça social para milhões de brasileiros.

New biomarkers are needed to improve knowledge about pathophysiology, in order to provide earlier correct diagnosis and to follow disease progression of the neurodegenerative diseases amyotrophic lateral sclerosis (ALS) and Parkinson's disease (PD). The aim of this thesis was to find new biomarkers for these diseases. First, increased serum levels and unchanged levels in postmortal spinal cord of vascular endothelial growth factor (VEGF) were demonstrated. VEGF was not detected in cerebrospinal fluid (CSF) in ALS. Second, increased levels of fibroblast growth factor 2 were found in the CSF and serum of ALS patients. Both studies used enzyme-linked immunoassays. Third, a proteomics method for CSF analysis was explored, based on tryptic digestion and subsequent separation and detection of the peptides by on-line liquid chromatography-Fourier transform ion cyclotron resonance mass spectrometry. ALS-specific patterns were observed. Four out of five samples were correctly assigned, but no single protein biomarker could be identified. Fourth, [11C](L)-deprenyl-D2 (DED) positron emission tomography (PET) demonstrated increased retention in the pons and white matter in ALS. DED binds to monoamino oxidase B, which in the brain is primarily located in astrocytes. Thus evidence was provided that astrocytosis may be detected in vivo in ALS. Fifth, normal [11C]-PIB binding in five nondemented patients with PD was reported, in contrast to previous findings of increased retention in Alzheimer's disease reflecting amyloid aggregation. Finally, the combined use of fluorodeoxyglucose and L-[β 11C]-DOPA PET for the differential diagnosis of parkinsonian syndromes was evaluated. PET provided support for the clinical diagnosis in 62 out of 75 patients, and served to exclude suspected diagnoses in another five patients.

The objective of this research is to apply micromachined silicon-based resonant gravimetric sensors to the detection of gas-phase volatile organic compounds (VOCs). This is done in two primary tasks: 1) the optimization and application of silicon disk resonators to the detection of gas-phase VOCs, and 2) the development and application of a novel gravimetric-capacitive multisensor platform for the detection of gas-phase VOCs. In the rst task, the design and fabrication of a silicon-based disk resonator structure utilizing an in-plane resonance mode is undertaken. The resonance characteristics of the disk resonator are characterized and optimized. The optimized characteristics include the resonator Q-factor as a function of geometric parameters, and the dynamic displacement of the in-plane resonance mode. The Q-factors of the disk resonators range from 2600 to 4360 at atmosphere for disk silicon thicknesses from 7 µm to 18 µm, respectively. The resonance frequency of the in-plane resonance mode ranges from 260 kHz up to 750 kHz. The disk resonators are applied to the sensing of gas-phase VOCs using (poly)isobutylene as a sensitive layer. Limits of detection for benzene, toluene and m-xylene vapors of 5.3 ppm, 1.2 ppm, and 0.6 ppm are respectively obtained. Finally, models for the limits of detection and chemical sensitivity of the resonator structures are developed for the case of the polymer layers used. In the second task, a silicon-based resonator is combined with a capacitive structure to produce a multisensor structure for the sensing of gas-phase VOCs. Fabrication of the multisensor structure is undertaken, and the sensor is theoretically modeled. The baseline capacitance of the capacitor component of the multisensor is estimated to be 170 fF. Finally, initial VOC detection results for the capacitive aspect of the sensor are obtained.

A Constituição federal de 1988 determina em seus artigos 158 a 162 quais são as transferências intergovernamentais de receitas fiscais entre os entes federados (União, estados, Distrito Federal e municípios). Uma destas transferências é o repasse de 25% da arrecadação do ICMS dos estados para os municípios denominada Cota-parte do ICMS. Dos 25% do ICMS a serem transferidos, 75% devem ser repassados, proporcionalmente, ao VAF municipal que é o valor adicionado nas operações relativas à circulação de mercadorias e nas prestações de serviços realizadas em seus territórios, mais especificamente, a diferença entre as entradas e saídas de mercadorias e serviços do município. Neste contexto, o objetivo geral desta pesquisa foi analisar a forma de distribuição da Cota-parte do ICMS entre os 853 municípios mineiros, tendo como objeto de estudo principal o repasse baseado no VAF que é regulamentado pela Lei Complementar 63/1990. O período de estudo foi de 2010 a 2013 e a teoria base foi o federalismo e o federalismo fiscal que trata da repartição de receitas fiscais entre os entes federados. Tratouse de uma pesquisa descritiva, quantitativa e documental, realizada a partir dos relatórios disponibilizados pela Secretaria de Estado da Fazenda de MG – SEF/MG, Siconfi/STN e Fundação João Pinheiro – FJP. Foram aplicados os testes estatísticos Análise de Variância em Blocos Casualizados na Estrutura Aninhada ou Hierárquica e o teste Skott-Knott para comparar as estimativas de médias da Cota-parte do ICMS e do VAF entre os municípios e territórios de desenvolvimento. Os resultados destes testes demostraram, por meio dos agrupamentos formados, que não há semelhança entre elas. Para medir o grau de concentração das variáveis foi calculado o Coeficiente de Gini e plotada a Curva de Lorenz e para verificar se existe associação entre as variáveis VAF, PIB e Cota-parte do ICMS foi aplicado o teste Correlação Linear de Spearman. Além destes, foi analisada a composição da receita total dos municípios por meio de gráficos e planilhas eletrônicas. Os resultados da análise da concentração da Cotaparte do ICMS em Minas Gerais revelaram um alto grau de concentração, mesmo sendo incluído no cálculo os 25% repassados aos municípios por meio da aplicação dos critérios redistributivos da Lei 18.030/2009 - Lei Hobin Hood. Revelou-se ainda que a concentração está nos municípios que possuem maior produção de bens e serviços. / The Federal Constitution of 1988 states in its articles 158-162 which are the intergovernmental transfers of tax revenues between the federal agencies (Federal, State, Federal District and Municipalities). One of these transfers is the transfer of 25% of the ICMS collection of states to municipalities called Cota-part of the ICMS. 25% of the ICMS to be transferred, 75% must be transferred proportionally to the municipal VAF, which is the value added in the transactions regarding the circulation of goods and the rendering of services carried out in their territories, more specifically, the difference between the inputs and outputs of goods and services of the Municipality. In this context, the general objective of this research is to analyze the distribution of quota-part of the ICMS among the 853 municipalities of Minas Gerais, being the main object of this study, the transfer based on VAF which is regulated by Complementary Law 63/1990. The study period was from 2010 to 2013 and the base theory was federalism and fiscal federalism which deals with the division of tax revenues between the federal entities. This was a descriptive, quantitative and desk research conducted from reports provided by the State of MG Finance - SEF / MG, Siconfi / STN and João Pinheiro Foundation - FJP. ANOVA statistical tests were applied in randomized blocks in Nested or hierarchical structure and Skott-Knott test to compare the averages of estimates of Cota-part of the ICMS and VAF between municipalities and development of territories. The results of these tests demonstrated by means of groups formed, there is no similarity between them. To measure the degree of concentration of the variables we calculated the Gini coefficient and plotted the Lorenz curve and to investigate the association between VAF variables, GDP and quota-part of the ICMS it was applied linear correlation test of Spearman. In addition, it was analyzed the composition of the total revenue of the municipalities through graphs and spreadsheets. The results of analyzing the concentration of quota-part of the ICMS in Minas Gerais showed a high degree of concentration, even being included in calculating the 25% allocated to municipalities through the implementation of redistributive criteria of Law 18.030 / 2009 - Law Robin Hood. It also revealed that the concentration is in the municipalities that have greater production of goods and services. / Dissertação (Mestrado)

Submitted by HELENO PIAZENTINI VIEIRA (helenopv@gmail.com) on 2014-05-09T14:03:11Z No. of bitstreams: 1 Velocidade da moeda, inflação e ciclos de negócios no Brasil, 1900-2013.pdf: 1362534 bytes, checksum: 0cbd1b1891b345cdf3b1487cd6c24344 (MD5) / Approved for entry into archive by Suzinei Teles Garcia Garcia (suzinei.garcia@fgv.br) on 2014-05-09T17:51:44Z (GMT) No. of bitstreams: 1 Velocidade da moeda, inflação e ciclos de negócios no Brasil, 1900-2013.pdf: 1362534 bytes, checksum: 0cbd1b1891b345cdf3b1487cd6c24344 (MD5) / Made available in DSpace on 2014-05-09T19:40:39Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 Velocidade da moeda, inflação e ciclos de negócios no Brasil, 1900-2013.pdf: 1362534 bytes, checksum: 0cbd1b1891b345cdf3b1487cd6c24344 (MD5) Previous issue date: 2014-04-22 / A presente tese é composta por três ensaios. O primeiro ensaio estuda os ciclos de negócios brasileiro no período dos anos 1900 até 2012. Uma série trimestral do PIB real é elaborada, utilizando um modelo estrutural de séries de tempo. A partir disso, um modelo com mudança Markoviana é proposto para que seja construída uma cronologia de ciclo de negócios. O modelo selecionado possui dois regimes distintos, cenários de expansão e de recessão, a datação obtida é comparada com outros estudos sobre o tema e são propostas caracterizações das fases de crescimento que podem apoiar estudos sobre a história econômica do Brasil. O segundo ensaio estuda o comportamento da velocidade da moeda no ciclo de negócios brasileiro de 1900 até 2013. Os resultados a partir das estimativas dos modelos de séries temporais, MS e GARCH, são utilizados para suportar esse estudo. Em termos gerais a velocidade da moeda no Brasil apresentou queda até a segunda Guerra Mundial, cresceu até meados dos anos 1990 e a partir disso segue em tendência de queda. A experiência inflacionária brasileira é capítulo importante de nossa história econômica. O objetivo do terceiro ensaio é estudar a volatilidade da inflação brasileira ao longo do tempo no período de 1939 até 2013, buscando descrever sua relação com a taxa de inflação, adotando como referência uma datação de ciclos de negócios. Para realizar essa descrição serão utilizados os resultados obtidos nas estimações de modelos econométricos das classes GARCH, BSM e MS. No caso brasileiro a indicação é que a taxa de inflação impacta positivamente sua volatilidade. / This doctoral thesis is composed by three essays. The first one studies the Brazilian business cycles during the years 1900 to 2012. A quarterly real GDP measure is produced using a structural model of time series. For this, Markov Switching model is proposed to be constructed a chronology of business cycle. The selected model has two distinct regimes scenarios of expansion and recession, the dating obtained is compared with other studies on the subject are proposed characterizations and the stages of growth that can support studies on the economic history of Brazil. The second paper studies the behavior of the velocity of money in the Brazilian business cycle from 1900 to 2013. The results from the estimation of models for time series GARCH and MS, are used to support this study. In general the velocity of money in Brazil fell to the Second World War, has grown to the mid-1990s and from this follows on a downward trend. The Brazilian inflation experience is important chapter in our economic history. The objective of the third paper is to study the volatility of the Brazilian inflation over time in the period 1939 to 2013, trying to describe his relationship with the rate of inflation, taking as a reference dating of business cycles. To conduct this description the results obtained in the estimations of GARCH, MS and BSM models classes will be used. In the Brazilian case the indication is that the inflation rate positively impacts the volatility of this variable.

L'ampleur de la Grande Récession a suscité un regain d'intérêt pour l'analyse conjoncturelle, plus particulièrement du cycle économique. Notre thèse participe de ce renouveau d'attention pour l'étude des fluctuations économiques.Après une présentation générale des modèles à changements de régime dans le chapitre 1, le chapitre suivant propose une chronologie du cycle des affaires de l'économie française sur la période 1970-2009. Trois méthodes de datation sont utilisées à cette fin : la règle des deux trimestres consécutifs de croissance négative, l'approche non paramétrique de Bry et Boschan (1971) et le modèle markovien à changements de régime de Hamilton (1989). Les résultats montrent que l'existence de ruptures structurelles peut empêcher ce dernier modèle d'identifier correctement les points de retournement cycliques. Cependant, quandces ruptures sont prises en considération, le calendrier des récessions françaises obtenu à l'aide du modèle d'Hamilton coïncide largement avec celui obtenu par les deux autres méthodes. Le chapitre 3 développe une analyse de la non-linéarité dans le modèle à changements de régime en utilisant un ensemble de tests non-standards. Une étude par simulation Monte Carlo révèle qu'un test récemment proposé par Carrasco, Hu et Ploberger (2013) présente une faible puissance pour des processus générateurs des données empiriquement pertinents et ce, lorsqu'on tient compte de l'autocorrélation sous l'hypothèse nulle. En revanche, untest "bootstrap" paramétrique basé sur le rapport des vraisemblances a, pour sa part une puissance plus élevée, ce qui traduit l'existence probable de non-linéarités significatives dans le PIB réel trimestriel de la France et des Etats-Unis. Quand il s'agit de tester un changement de régime en moyenne ou en constante, il est important de tenir compte de l'autocorrélation sous l'hypothèse nulle de linéarité. En effet, dans le cas contraire, un rejet de la linéarité pourrait simplement refléter une mauvaise spécification de la persistance des données, plutôt que d'une non-linéarité inhérente.Le chapitre 4 examine une question importante : la considération de ruptures structurelles dans les séries améliore-t-elle la performance prédictive du modèle markovien relativement à son homologue linéaire ? La démarche adoptée pour y répondre consiste à combiner les prévisions obtenues pour différentes périodes d'estimation. Voici le principal résultat dû à l'application de cette démarche : la prise en compte des données provenant des intervalles de temps précédant les ruptures structurelles et la "Grande Modération" améliore les prévisions basées sur des données tirées exclusivement de ces épisodes. De la sorte, les modèles à changements de régime s'avèrent capables de prédire la probabilité d'événements tels que la Grande Récession, avec plus de précision que ses homologues linéaires.Les conclusions générales synthétisent les principaux acquis de la thèse et évoqueplusieurs perspectives de recherche future. / The severity of the Great Recession has renewed interest in the analysis of business cycles. Our thesis pertains to this revival of attention for the study of cyclical fluctuations. After reviewing the regime-switching models in Chapter one, the following chapter suggests a chronology of the classical business cycle in French economy for the 1970-2009 period. To that end, three dating methodologies are used: the rule of thumb of two consecutive quarters of negative growth, the non-parametric approach of Bry and Boschan (1971), and the Markov-switching approach of Hamilton (1989). The results show that,omitted structural breaks may hinder the Markov-switching approach to capture business-cycle fluctuations. However, when such breaks are allowed for, the timing of the French recessions provided by the Markov-switching model closely matches those derived by the rule-based approaches.Chapter 3 performs a nonlinearity analysis inMarkov-switching modelling using a set of non-standard tests. Monte Carlo analysis reveals that a recently test proposed by Carrasco, Hu, and Ploberger (2013) for Markov switching has low power for empirically-relevant data generating processes when allowing for serial correlation under the null. By contrast, a parametric bootstrap likelihood ratio (LR) test of Markov switching has higher power in the same setting, providing stronger support for nonlinearity in quarterly French and U.S. real GDP. When testing for Markov switching in mean or intercept of an autoregressive process, it is important to allow for serial correlation under the null hypothesis of linearity.Otherwise, a rejection of linearity could merely reflect misspecification of the persistence properties of the data, rather than any inherent nonlinearity.Chapter 4 examines whether controlling for structural breaks improves the forecasting performance of the Markov-switching models, as compared to their linear counterparts.The approach considered to answer this issue is to combined forecasts across different estimation windows. The outcome of applying such an approach shows that, including data from periods preceding structural breaks and particularly the "Great Moderation" improves upon forecasts based on data drawn exclusively from these episodes. Accordingly, Markov-switching models forecast the probability of events such as the Great Recession more accurately than their linear counterparts.The general conclusions summarize the main results of the thesis and, suggest several directions for future research.

Submitted by Denis Nakazawa (denisnak@hotmail.com) on 2013-06-12T10:02:00Z No. of bitstreams: 1 Fatores Determinantes do Preço de Imóveis (Denis)_vf (pos-banca).pdf: 582940 bytes, checksum: a0fa5f51d08621702a0529597eb29f5f (MD5) / Este estudo tem como objetivo determinar os principais fatores macroeconômicos que influenciam a formação do preço de imóveis, tomando como base o mercado imobiliário residencial da cidade de São Paulo entre os anos de 2001 e 2012. Para capturar o efeito endógeno do PIB, da taxa de juros e da bolsa de valores sobre o preço de imóveis, optou-se por um modelo VAR. Concluiu-se que, dentre as variáveis, o PIB foi o fator mais preponderante na formação do preço, chegando a ter um impacto quase três vezes superior à taxa de juros. Não foram encontradas evidências estatísticas significativas do efeito da bolsa sobre o preço dos imóveis. Constatou-se ainda que choques no PIB e na taxa de juros demoram, no mínimo, um ano para começarem a refletir sobre o preço. Essas conclusões foram mais robustas no período anterior à crise imobiliária americana de 2008. / This article aims to identify the main economic determinants of house prices, based on the Sao Paulo residential market between the years 2001 and 2012. A VAR model was used to capture the endogenous dynamic among GNP, interest rate, equity and house prices. Among the variables, GNP was the most preponderant factor, having an impact almost three times superior than interest rate. No significant statistical evidence was found relating equity to housing price. Furthermore, house prices took at least one year to respond to shocks in the GNP and interest rate. These conclusions were more robust in the period previous to the American subprime mortgage crises of 2008.

Cette thèse s’intéresse aux effets macroéconomiques des envois de fonds des migrants dans les paysen développement. La première partie de la thèse analyse l’effet causal des envois de fonds surplusieurs indicateurs de bien-Être, tandis que la deuxième partie examine l’effet des envois de fondssur la politique publique des pays receveurs. Plusieurs résultats émergent. Premièrement, les envois defonds des migrants réduisent significativement la part des individus travaillant pour moins de 2 dollarset cet effet apparaît renforcé dans un contexte de faible développement financier, forte instabilitémacroéconomique et forte prévisibilité des envois de fonds (Chapitre 1.). Deuxièmement, les envoisde fonds réduisent l’instabilité de la consommation privée et cet effet est d’autant plus important quele niveau de développement financier est faible et que le niveau des envois de fonds est faible. Parailleurs, les envois de fonds absorbent différents types de chocs (Chapitre 2.). Troisièmement, lesenvois de fonds atténuent significativement les effets des catastrophes naturelles sur l’output agrégé,cependant cet effet stabilisateur diminue avec le niveau d’envois de fonds reçus (Chapitre 3.). Ladeuxième partie de la thèse analyse l’impact des envois de fonds des migrants sur la politiquepublique. Premièrement, il apparaît que la contracyclicité des envois fonds contribue à réduire le rôled’assurance joué par la consommation publique dans les pays ouverts sur l’extérieur (Chapitre 4.).Deuxièmement, les envois de fonds réduisent significativement la part des dépenses publiques socialesdans les pays caractérisés par une mal gouvernance (Chapitre 5.). Troisièmement, les envois de fondscontribuent à accroître à la fois le volume et la stabilité du taux de recettes fiscales dans les pays ayantadopté une taxe sur la valeur ajoutée (Chapitre 6.). / This thesis focused on the consequences of remittance inflows in developing countries. The first partexplored the causal impacts of remittances on some indicators of aggregate welfare while the secondpart examined the effects of remittances on public policy. Several results emerged. First, remittanceinflows help reduce the proportion of individuals selling low wages and this effect is stronger in acontext of low level of financial development, high macroeconomic instability and less unpredictableremittances (Chapter 1). Second, remittances have a robust stabilizing impact on the privateconsumption. However, this effect tends to decrease with the levels of remittance inflows and financialdevelopment. Moreover, remittance-Dependent economies seem to be strongly sheltered against thedamaging effects of various types of shocks affecting consumption (Chapter 2). In Chapter 3, theresults highlighted that remittance inflows dampen the positive effect of natural disasters on the outputgrowth volatility. However, this impact was strongly reduced as the level of remittances increased.The second part of the thesis revealed interesting results regarding the effects of remittance inflows onpublic policy. First, remittance inflows reduce the insurance role played by the governmentconsumption in more open economies and this effect is more likely to hold when remittances exhibit acountercyclical behavior (Chapter 4). In Chapter 5, the results showed that the fiscal retrenchmentinduced by remittance inflows, is particularly marked for the public education and health spending incountries characterized by various types of governance problems. Finally, the thesis showed that theeffects of remittances do not only concern the expenditure side but also the revenue side. Remittancesare more likely to increase the fiscal space in receiving economies that rely on the value added taxsystem. In these countries, remittance inflows help increase both the level and the stability of thegovernment tax revenue ratio (Chapter 6).

[EN] ABSTRACT The intense process of elevation of the housing prices in Spain during the real estate "boom" and at the time of the start of the 2008 crisis, has brought to light again the role of the soil in such a process, and in particular the relationship between soil - dwelling and speculation: is the shortage of land driven by speculation that causes higher housing prices; or it is the expectation of continuing of the latter lifting which exerts pressure on land prices and encourages speculation? In the center of this issue is the characterization of the soil, which can be not comparable to a perfect and efficient market in the terms in which economic theory defines them and that throughout this study we are going to check. The research takes as the main object of study the Spanish urbanistic legislation and part of the analysis of the treatment that she does on the land speculation, since the beginning of the new real estate cycle of 1994 until the current crisis of 2008. Work that develops tries to give some general ideas of the evolution of this period and its influence on urban development, taking only State law while competencies in housing and urban development belong to the autonomous communities, but not for this reason, a detailed study of such a situation in the Valenciana. Con community to renounce this research intends to identify the possible effects or results of urban development in the current market legislation of the soil, how through their different ways of management and normative regulation, has been able to influence the price and the value of soil and if analysed conclusively speculation in land control. Aspects such as non-substitutability between soils located at different locations; or recent political positions, associated with the recent urban developments, describing it as a scarce resource, or claims, as "the soil is the major cause of the rise in prices, should avoid speculation", and not forgetting the importance that in the past two decades has given to article 47 of the Constitution proclaims the right of Spaniards to decent and adequate housing and instructs the public authorities do so through cash relevant standards that regulate the soil and avoid speculation, has led us to the need to consider the study research on the imminent need for control, the land speculation and if the legislative powers have been able to carry out this mission. Deepen to study if throughout the planning processes of the last two decades and the new laws have been effective regulation, to non-intervention. Through the law of soil and other laws have known trying to give solutions to this approach and response. / [ES] RESUMEN El intenso proceso de elevación de los precios de la vivienda en España durante el "boom inmobiliario" y en el momento del inicio de la crisis del 2008, ha sacado a la luz de nuevo el papel del suelo en dicho proceso, y en particular la relación entre suelo- vivienda y especulación: ¿es la carestía del suelo conducida por la especulación la que provoca al alza a los precios de la vivienda; o es la expectativa de elevación continuada de estos últimos la que ejerce una presión sobre los precios del suelo y alienta la especulación? En el centro de esta cuestión está la caracterización del suelo, que no puede asimilarse a un mercado perfecto y eficiente, en los términos en que la teoría económica los define y que a lo largo de este estudio vamos a comprobar. La investigación toma como principal objeto de estudio la legislación urbanística española y parte del análisis del tratamiento que ella hace sobre la especulación del suelo, desde el inicio del nuevo ciclo inmobiliario de 1994 hasta la actual crisis del 2008. El trabajo que se desarrolla trata de dar unas ideas generales de la evolución de este periodo y de su influencia en el desarrollo urbanístico, tomando únicamente la legislación estatal a pesar de que las competencias en vivienda y urbanismo pertenecen a las comunidades autónomas, pero no por ello, renunciar a un estudio pormenorizado de tal situación en la Comunidad Valenciana. Con esta investigación se pretende identificar los posibles efectos o resultados de la legislación urbanística en el actual mercado del suelo, de cómo a través de sus diferentes formas de gestión y regulación normativa, ha sabido influir sobre el precio y el valor del suelo y si ha analizado de forma concluyente el control de la especulación en el suelo. Aspectos como la no sustituibilidad, entre suelos situados en diferentes localizaciones; o las posiciones políticas recientes, asociadas a los últimos desarrollos urbanísticos, calificando a este como un bien escaso, o las afirmaciones, como "el suelo es el causante de la subida de precios, hay que evitar la especulación", y sin olvidar la importancia que en estas dos últimas décadas se ha dado al artículo 47 de la Constitución donde se proclama el derecho para los españoles a una vivienda digna y adecuada y ordena a los poderes públicos hacerlo efectivo mediante las normas pertinentes que regulen el suelo y eviten la especulación, nos ha llevado a la necesidad de considerar el estudio la investigación sobre la inminente necesidad de controlar, la especulación del suelo y si los poderes legislativos han sabido llevar a cabo este cometido. Profundizar para estudiar si a lo largo de los procesos urbanísticos de la últimas dos décadas y las nuevas legislaciones han sido efectivas la regulación, que no intervención. Si a través de la Ley de Suelo y otras legislaciones han sabido tratar de dar respuesta y soluciones a tal planteamiento. / [CA] L'intens proces d'elevacio dels preus de la vivenda en Espanya durant el "BOOM immobiliari" i en el moment de l'inici de la crisis del 2008, ha tret a la llum de nou el paper del sol en dit proces, i en particular la relacio entre sol- vivenda i especulacio: ¿es la carestia del sol guiat per l'especulacio la que provoca a l'alça als preus de la vivenda; o es l'expectativa d'elevacio continuada d'estos ultims la que eixercix una pressio sobre els preus del sol i encoraja l'especulacio? En el centre d'esta qüestio està la caracterisacio del sol, que no pot assimilar-se a un mercat perfecte i eficient, en els termens en que la teoria economica els definix i que a lo llarc d'este estudi anem a comprovar. La investigació presa com principal objecte d'estudi la legislació urbanística espanyola i part de l'anàlisi del tractament que ella fa sobre l'especulació del sòl, des de l'inici del nou cicle immobiliari de 1994 fins a l'actual crisi del 2008. El treball que es desenrotlla tracta de donar unes idees generals de l'evolució d'este període i de la seua influència en el desenrotllament urbanístic, prenent únicament la legislació estatal a pesar que les competències en vivenda i urbanisme pertanyen a les comunitats autònomes, però no per això, renunciar a un estudi detallat de tal situació a la Comunitat Valenciana. RESUM Amb esta investigació es pretén identificar els possibles efectes o resultats de la legislació urbanística en l'actual mercat del sòl, de com a través de les seues diferents formes de gestió i regulació normativa, ha sabut influir sobre el preu i el valor del sòl i si ha analitzat de forma concloent el control de l'especulació en el sòl. Aspectes com la no sustituibilitat, entre sols situats en diferents localisacions; o les posicions politiques recents, associades als ultims desenrolls urbanistics, calificant a este com un be ESCASO, o les afirmacions, com "el sol es el causant de la pujada de preus, hi ha que evitar l'especulacio", i sense oblidar l'importancia que en estos dos ultimes decades s'ha donat a l'articul 47 de la Constitucio a on se proclama el dret per als espanyols a una vivenda digna i adequada i orde als poders publics fer-ho efectiu mediant les normes pertinents que regulen el sol i eviten l'especulacio, mos ha portat a la necessitat de considerar l'estudi l'investigacio sobre l'imminent necessitat de controlar, l'especulacio del sol i si els poders llegislatius han sabut portar a veta este comés. Profundisar per a estudiar si a lo llarc dels processos urbanistics de l'ultimes dos decades i les noves llegislacions han segut efectives la regulacio, que no intervencio. Si a través de la Llei de Sol i atres llegislacions han sabut tractar de donar resposta i solucions a tal plantejament. / Martí Sancho, VF. (2016). Contribución de la legislación urbanística al control de la especulación del suelo. Concreción en la Comunidad Valenciana [Tesis doctoral]. Universitat Politècnica de València. https://doi.org/10.4995/Thesis/10251/62581

Cette thèse construit un modèle théorique qui renouvelle l’approche traditionnelle de l’équilibre du marché. En introduisant dans le paradigme néo-classique le principe de préférence pour la quantité, il génère de façon optimale des stocks dans un marché concurrentiel. Les résultats sont très importants, car ils expliquent à la fois l’émergence des invendus et l’existence de cycles économiques. En outre, il étudie le comportement optimal du monopole dont la puissance de marché dépend non seulement de la quantité de biens étalés, mais aussi de celle de biens achetés. Contrairement à l’hypothèse traditionnelle selon laquelle le monopoleur choisit le prix ou la quantité qui maximise son profit, il attire, via un indice de Lerner généralisé la demande à la fois par le prix et la quantité de biens exposés. Quelle que soit la structure du marché, le phénomène d’accumulation des stocks de biens apparaît dans l’économie. De plus, il a l’avantage d’expliquer explicitement les achats impulsifs non encore traités par la théorie économique. Pour vérifier la robustesse des résultats du modèle théorique, ils sont testés sur des données américaines. En raison de leur non-linéarité, la méthode de Gauss-Newton est appropriée pour analyser l’impact de la préférence pour la quantité sur la production et l’accumulation de biens, et par conséquent sur les prévisions de PIB. Enfin, cette thèse construit un modèle à générations imbriquées à deux pays qui étend l’équilibre dynamique à un gamma-équilibre dynamique sans friction. Sur la base de la contrainte de détention préalable d’encaisse, il ressort les conditions de sur-accumulation du capital et les conséquences de la mobilité du capital sur le bien-être dans un contexte d’accumulation du stock d’invendus / This thesis constructs a theoretical model that renews the traditional approach of the market equilibrium. By introducing into the neoclassical paradigm the principle of preference for quantity, it optimally generates inventories within a competitive market. The results are very important since they explain both the emergence of unsold goods and the existence of economic cycles. In addition, it studies the optimal behavior of a monopolist whose the market power depends not only on the quantity of displayed goods but also that of goods that the main consumer is willing to buy. Contrary to the traditional assumption that the monopolist chooses price or quantity that maximizes its profit, through a generalized Lerner index (GLI) it attracts customers’ demand by both the price and the quantity of displayed goods. Whatever the market structure, the phenomenon of inventory accumulation appears in the economy. Furthermore, it has the advantage of explicitly explaining impulse purchases untreated by economics. To check the robustness of the results,the theoretical model is fitted to U.S. data. Due to its nonlinearity, the Gauss-Newtonmethod is appropriate to highlight the impact of consumers’ preference for quantity on production and accumulation of goods and consequently GDP forecast. Finally, this thesis builds a two-country overlapping generations (OLG) model which extends the dynamic OLG equilibrium to a frictionless dynamic OLG gamma-equilibrium. Based on the cash-inadvance constraint, it highlights the conditions of over-accumulation of capital and welfare implications of capital mobility in a context of accumulation of stock of unsold goods.