European cities of today are under the challenge to find ways to stay competitive and flourish in a rapidly changing world, where the old patterns of centrality and periphery not necessarily holds true. New and improved communication networks, a changed political geography in Europe, and the globalisation of not only the financial and industrial markets but also to a certain extent the globalisation of people, have all led to great challenges for cities and regions. In a changed spatial reality the classic monocentric models are challenged by newer models of urbanisation. The polycentric urban region is one such model which has been used to describe urban regions like the Randstad in the Netherlands and the Rhein-Ruhr region in Germany. Regions which lack the single dominant central city of the monocentric models of old, and instead shows a high degree of more equal-sized and sometimes more specialised cities in regional cooperation. The polycentric urban region is in that aspect a possible model for how other urbanised regions in Europe may act to be able to position themselves as attractive urban regions and regional hubs in the European urban network. Polycentric urban regions are not a universal solution, though. For such regions to work there are a number of prerequisites to be filled, something that makes it a possible future for regions like Haute-Normandie in France, where the two cities of Le Havre and Rouen have the possibility to form one urban region and already show signs of heading in that direction, while a region like Dolnośląskie in Poland – where the city of Wrocław is the dominant city in what makes for a more classic monocentric region – has much less opportunity to use a polycentric strategy on the regional level to become competitive. On the other hand such a city and region can instead benefit from the fact that Poland is to a high degree a polycentric nation, and as one of the larger cities in such an environment, Wrocław has the opportunity to position itself as a hub in the European urban network in a way that Le Havre and Rouen cannot, due to their physical location close to the giant European urban region of Paris. / Dagens europeiska städer står inför en utmaning att finna sätt att förbli konkurrenskraftiga och framgångsrika i en snabbt föränderlig värld, där de gamla mönstren vad gäller centralitet och periferi inte längre nödvändigtvis gäller. Nya och förbättrade kommunikationsnätverk, en förändrad politisk geografi i Europa, globaliseringen av inte bara de finansiella och industriella systemen, utan även till viss del en globalisering av människorna, har alla lett till stora utmaningar för städer och regioner. I en förändrad rumsgeografisk verklighet utmanas de klassiska monocentriska modellerna av nyare urbaniseringsmodeller. Den polycentriska urbana regionen är en sådan modell som har använts för att beskriva urbana regioner som Randstad i Nederländerna och Rhein-Ruhrregionen i Tyskland. Regioner som saknar den ensamt dominierande centrala staden från de klassiska monocentriska modellerna, och istället uppvisar en hög grad av mer jämnstora och ibland mer specialiserade städer i regionalt samarbete. Den polycentriska urbana regionen är mot den bakgrunden en möjlig modell för hur andra urbaniserade regioner i Europa kan agera för att positionera sig själva som attraktiva urbana regioner och regionala nav i det Europeiska urbana nätverket. Polycentriska urbana regioner är däremot inte någon universallösning. För att sådana regioner ska fungera krävs att ett antal punkter är uppfyllda, något som gör det till en möjlig framtid för regioner som exempelvis Haute-Normandie i Frankrike, där de två städerna Le Havre och Rouen tillsammans kan bilda en urban region och redan visar tecken på att gå i den riktningen, medan en region som Dolnośląskie i Polen – där staden Wrocław är den dominerande staden i vad som utgör en mer traditionell monocentrisk region – har betydligt mindre möjlighet att använda sig av en polycentrisk strategi på det regionala planet för att bli konkurrenskraftig. Å andra sidan kan en sådan stad och region istället utnyttja det faktum att Polen är en ovanligt polycentrisk stat, och som en av de större städerna i en sådan miljö har Wrocław möjligheten att positionera sig själv som ett nav i det europeiska urbana nätverket på ett sätt som Le Havre och Rouen inte kan, till följd av deras fysiska lokalisering nära den gigantiska europeiska urbaniserade regionen Paris.

The overall purpose of this dissertation is to provide an empirical study of the post-Cold War EastAsian security setting, with the aim of understanding why there is an East Asian peace. The EastAsian peace exists in a region with a history of militarised conflicts, home to many of the world'slongest ongoing militarised problems and a number of unresolved critical flashpoints. Thus, thepost-Cold War East Asian inter-state peace is a paradox. Despite being a region predicted to be ripefor conflict, there have not only been less wars than expected, but the region also shows severalsigns of a development towards a more durable peace. The dominant research paradigm –neorealism – has painted a gloomy picture of post-Cold War East Asia, with perpetual conflictsdominating the predictions. Other mainstream international relations theories, too, fail to accountfully for the relative peace. One of the greatest problems for mainstream theories, is accounting forpeace given East Asia's lack of security organisations or other formalised conflict managementmechanisms. Given this paradox/problem, this dissertation sets out to ask "Why is there a relativepeace in the East Asian security setting despite an absence of security organisations or otherformalised mechanisms to prevent existing conflicts from escalating into violence?" In order to answer this question, the case of East Asian peace is approached by comparingthree embedded case studies within the region: the Taiwan issue, the South China Sea, and theKorean nuclear conflict. It explores the full range of informal and formal processes plus the ConflictPrevention and Peacebuilding Mechanisms (CPPBMs) that have been important for the creation ofa continuing relative peace in East Asia between 1990 and 2008. The study furthermore focuses onChina's role in the three cases, on an empirical basis consisting of interviews conducted with keypersons during more than 1.5 years fieldwork in China. The three cases show that informal processes exist, and that they have furthermore beenimportant for peace, both by preventing conflicts from escalating into war, and by buildingconditions for a stable longer-term peace. Their impact on the persistence of peace has been tracedto a range of different CPPBMs. Returning to the level of the East Asian case, a common feature ofmany of the identified processes is that they can be understood as aspects or manifestations of theEast Asian regionalisation process. Specifically, elite interactions (personal networks, track twodiplomacy), back-channel negotiations, economic interdependence and integration, and functionalcooperation have together with (China's acceptance of) multilateralism and institutionalisation (ofpeaceful relations) been of high importance for the relative peace. Whereas formalised conflictmanagement mechanisms and the U.S. presence have also contributed to peace, this dissertationshows their contribution to be much more limited.

L'estimation de crues de projet est requise pour le dimensionnement de barrages et de bassins de rétention, de même que pour la gestion des inondations lors de l’élaboration de cartes d’aléas ou lors de la modélisation et délimitation de plaines d’inondation. Généralement, les crues de projet sont définies par leur débit de pointe à partir d’une analyse fréquentielle univariée. Cependant, lorsque le dimensionnement d’ouvrages hydrauliques ou la gestion de crues nécessitent un stockage du volume ruisselé, il est également nécessaire de connaître les caractéristiques volume, durée et forme de l’hydrogramme de crue en plus de son débit maximum. Une analyse fréquentielle bivariée permet une estimation conjointe du débit de pointe et du volume de l’hydrogramme en tenant compte de leur corrélation. Bien qu’une telle approche permette la détermination du couple débit/volume de crue, il manque l’information relative à la forme de l’hydrogramme de crue. Une approche attrayante pour caractériser la forme de la crue de projet est de définir un hydrogramme représentatif normalisé par une densité de probabilité. La combinaison d’une densité de probabilité et des quantiles bivariés débit/volume permet la construction d’un hydrogramme synthétique de crue pour une période de retour donnée, qui modélise le pic d’une crue ainsi que sa forme. De tels hydrogrammes synthétiques sont potentiellement utiles et simples d’utilisation pour la détermination de crues de projet. Cependant, ils possèdent actuellement plusieurs limitations. Premièrement, ils reposent sur la définition d’une période de retour bivariée qui n’est pas univoque. Deuxièmement, ils décrivent en général le comportement spécifique d’un bassin versant en ne tenant pas compte de la variabilité des processus représentée par différents types de crues. Troisièmement, les hydrogrammes synthétiques ne sont pas disponibles pour les bassins versant non jaugés et une estimation de leurs incertitudes n’est pas calculée.Pour remédier à ces manquements, cette thèse propose des avenues pour la construction d’hydrogrammes synthétiques de projet pour les bassins versants jaugés et non jaugés, de même que pour la prise en compte de la diversité des types de crue. Des méthodes sont également développées pour la construction d’hydrogrammes synthétiques de crue spécifiques au bassin et aux événements ainsi que pour la régionalisation des hydrogrammes. Une estimation des diverses sources d’incertitude est également proposée. Ces travaux de recherche montrent que les hydrogrammes synthétiques de projet constituent une approche qui s’adapte bien à la représentation de différents types de crue ou d’événements dans un contexte de détermination de crues de projet. Une comparaison de différentes méthodes de régionalisation montre que les hydrogrammes synthétiques de projet spécifiques au bassin peuvent être régionalisés à des bassins non jaugés à l’aide de méthodes de régression linéaires et non linéaires. Il est également montré que les hydrogrammes de projet spécifiques aux événements peuvent être régionalisés à l’aide d’une approche d’indice de crue bivariée. Dans ce contexte, une représentation fonctionnelle de la forme des hydrogrammes constitue un moyen judicieux pour la délimitation de régions ayant un comportement hydrologique de crue similaire en terme de réactivité. Une analyse de l’incertitude a montré que la longueur de la série de mesures et le choix de la stratégie d’échantillonnage constituent les principales sources d’incertitude dans la construction d’hydrogrammes synthétiques de projet. Cette thèse démontre qu’une approche de crues de projet basée sur un ensemble de crues permet la prise en compte des différents types de crue et de divers processus. Ces travaux permettent de passer de l’analyse fréquentielle statistique de crues vers l’analyse fréquentielle hydrologique de crues permettant de prendre en compte les processus et conduisant à une prise de décision plus éclairée. / Design flood estimates are needed in hydraulic design for the construction of dams and retention basins and in flood management for drawing hazard maps or modeling inundation areas. Traditionally, such design floods have been expressed in terms of peak discharge estimated in a univariate flood frequency analysis. However, design or flood management tasks involving storage, in addition to peak discharge, also require information on hydrograph volume, duration, and shape . A bivariate flood frequency analysis allows the joint estimation of peak discharge and hydrograph volume and the consideration of their dependence. While such bivariate design quantiles describe the magnitude of a design flood, they lack information on its shape. An attractive way of modeling the whole shape of a design flood is to express a representative normalized hydrograph shape as a probability density function. The combination of such a probability density function with bivariate design quantiles allows the construction of a synthetic design hydrograph for a certain return period which describes the magnitude of a flood along with its shape. Such synthetic design hydrographs have the potential to be a useful and simple tool in design flood estimation. However, they currently have some limitations. First, they rely on the definition of a bivariate return period which is not uniquely defined. Second, they usually describe the specific behavior of a catchment and do not express process variability represented by different flood types. Third, they are neither available for ungauged catchments nor are they usually provided together with an uncertainty estimate.This thesis therefore explores possibilities for the construction of synthetic design hydrographs in gauged and ungauged catchments and ways of representing process variability in design flood construction. It proposes tools for both catchment- and flood-type specific design hydrograph construction and regionalization and for the assessment of their uncertainty.The thesis shows that synthetic design hydrographs are a flexible tool allowing for the consideration of different flood or event types in design flood estimation. A comparison of different regionalization methods, including spatial, similarity, and proximity based approaches, showed that catchment-specific design hydrographs can be best regionalized to ungauged catchments using linear and nonlinear regression methods. It was further shown that event-type specific design hydrograph sets can be regionalized using a bivariate index flood approach. In such a setting, a functional representation of hydrograph shapes was found to be a useful tool for the delineation of regions with similar flood reactivities.An uncertainty assessment showed that the record length and the choice of the sampling strategy are major uncertainty sources in the construction of synthetic design hydrographs and that this uncertainty propagates through the regionalization process.This thesis highlights that an ensemble-based design flood approach allows for the consideration of different flood types and runoff processes. This is a step from flood frequency statistics to flood frequency hydrology which allows better-informed decision making.

This thesis examines regional integration in Southern Africa and the evolution of SADC. Regional developments are evaluated with the yardsticks of integration theory, against the background of international regionalisation, and in terms of the region's practical record, its rhetoric and future agenda. The extent to which economic integration is progressing, is determined, after which the thesis focuses on political integration within SADC - both de Jure and de facto. Finally, developments within the region are evaluated in light of normative prerequisites for increased political integration. The thesis finds that the integration process in SADC does not fit into traditional integration theory, and concludes that successful economic integration in the region is not necessarily a prerequisite to political integration, but would facilitate it. The research finally concludes that there is evidence of embryonic political integration within SADC, which will wane or grow depending primarily on the political will of its constituents / Political Science / M.A. (Politics)

With potential of increased efficiency and a broader range of services, inter-municipal cooperation is often presented as a universal solution to public welfare challenges. Today, all Swedish municipalities are involved in inter-municipal cooperation in various policy areas. However, little is known about the municipalities’ capacity to coordinate their cooperation arrangements in the complex network of institutions and overlapping territories that characterise the regional level of governance. Building on the institutional collective action framework and the concept of governance capacity, this study examines how the municipalities’ capacity for regional coordination of upper secondary education in the city region of Örebro County varies depending on the institutional structures, the opportunities for cooperation and the social capital that embed the inter-municipal arrangements. The empirical study is based on a mixed method approach; where a qualitative content analysis of public documents is combined with interviews of representatives from different inter-municipal arrangements in Örebro County. By analysing how inter-municipal cooperation on upper secondary education has emerged and developed in Örebro County, this study shows how the municipalities have established institutions at two different levels. In Örebro County, regional networks and contracts operate in parallel with local agreements and municipal associations with delegated authority – only including a few municipalities in the city region. Several of the cooperation arrangements also include actors from the private sector and different levels of governance. The emergence of these inter-municipal cooperation arrangements can be interpreted as an institutional outcome of the municipalities' intrinsic motives to ensure a wide range of education to their local citizens as well as the need to secure the supply of skills and workforce in private and public sector. But it can also be interpreted as a strategy for the smaller municipalities to ensure their influence and governance capacity in the city region – which has a built- in power asymmetry linked to the municipalities’ heterogeneity. The emergence of the cooperation arrangements also illustrates a path dependent development, where the municipalities’ historical collaboration tradition determines which institutions that emerge and to which degree social capital can be established. Particularly noteworthy in the emergence of the inter-municipal cooperation in Örebro County is the presence of government, which manifests itself through conditional financing of the inter-municipal cooperation arrangements. Thus, within one and the same geographical city region, and within one and the same policy area, there is an overlap of different inter-municipal collaborative arrangements and functional regions, which has emerged in a symbiosis of both horizontal and vertical relations. As a result, the regionalisation that the municipalities create “bottom up”, through voluntary cooperation, work in parallel with the regionalisation that is created “top down”, through formal regional institutions.

Les bassins versants du pourtour méditerranéen français sont touchés par des pluies parfois intenses et à fort cumuls, qui peuvent engendrer des crues à cinétique rapide. Les derniers exemples majeurs en date sont ceux de l’Aude en 1999, du Gard en 2002 et du Var en 2010, dont les conséquences furent dramatiques. Ces travaux de thèse visent à évaluer une approche de modélisation complémentaire aux outils dont disposent déjà les Services de Prévision des Crues pour la prévision des crues à cinétique rapide : le couplage de modèles hydrologique et hydraulique, qui est a priori adapté pour la modélisation à l’échelle des grands bassins méditerranéens, de superficies supérieures à 1 000 km² (Ardèche, Cèze, Gardon, Vidourle…). Des éléments de réponses aux 4 questions suivantes sont recherchés : 1) le couplage est-il adapté pour la modélisation des débits atteints lors d’évènements passés, d’importance intermédiaire ? 2) le couplage est-il performant pour la modélisation des débits, cotes atteintes, et extension d’inondation, observés lors d’un épisode majeur? 3) comment envisager d’améliorer la modélisation des apports latéraux non-jaugés au modèle hydraulique, tout en adoptant une démarche adaptée à la prévision ? 4) le couplage est-il performant en prévision ? Le couplage employé combine le modèle hydrologique SCS-LR de la plateforme ATHYS (Bouvier et al., 2004), et le code de modélisation hydraulique 1D MASCARET (EDF-CETMEF, 2011). Il est appliqué au bassin versant du Gardon (2 040 km²), dans le sud de la France. / The French catchments around the Mediterranean Sea are affected by intense rains, which can cause fast and flash floods. The last major events are the one of the Aude river in 1999, of the Gard area in 2002, and of the Var area in 2010, whose consequences were tragic. This PhD intends to assess a modeling strategy complementary to the tools that are already used by the regional flood warning services: the coupling of hydrologic and hydraulic models, which is a priori well-adapted for the modelling of catchments of large-scale areas (larger than 1 000 km²) around the Mediterranean Sea (such as the ones of the Ardèche river, the Cèze river, the Vidourle river, the Gardon river…). The works aim at bringing elements of responses to the following questions: 1) is the coupling adapted to the modelling of floods hydrographs of past events of moderate importance? 2) in case of an extreme event (like in September 2002), is the coupling effective for the modelling of discharges, of water levels, and of flood extension? 3) how can we improve the modelling of ungauged lateral inflows to the hydraulic model, while applying a method adapted to forecasting? 4) Is the coupling efficient at forecasting? The coupling used combines the SCS-LR hydrologic model of the ATHYS platform (Bouvier et al., 2004), and the MASCARET 1D hydraulic model (EDF-CETMEF, 2011). It is applied to the Gardon river basin (2 040 km²), in the South of France.

This thesis investigates the historically composed political and economic contexts that contributed to the late 1990s commercial renaissance of Korean national cinema and that have sustained the popularity of Korean films among local and regional audiences ever since. Unlike existing approaches to the topic, which emphasise the textual characteristics of national film production, this thesis considers relations between film production, distribution, exhibition, and ancillary markets, as well as Korean cinema’s engagement with international cinemas such as Hollywood, Hong Kong, China and Japan. I argue that following the relaxation of restrictive film policy towards the importation and distribution of foreign films between 1986 and 1988, the subsequent failure of the domestic film industry to compete against international competition precipitated a remarkable shift in consensus regarding the industry’s structure and functions. Due to the loss of distribution rights to foreign films and the rapid decline in ticket sales for Korean films, the continued economic viability of local film companies was under enormous threat by the early 1990s. The government reacted by permitting conglomerates to seize control of the industry and pursue vertical and horizontal integration. During the rest of the decade, Korean cinema was transformed from an art cinema to a commercial entertainment cinema. The 1997/98 economic crisis led to the exit of conglomerate finance, but streamlined film companies were able to withstand the monetary meltdown, continue the domestic revitalisation, and, since the late 1990s, build media empires based on the expansion of Korean cinema throughout the Asian region.

Water is essential for human well-being and healthy ecosystems, but population growth and changes in climate and land-use are putting increased stress on water resources in many regions. To ensure water security, knowledge about the spatiotemporal distribution of these resources is of great importance. However, estimates of global water resources are constrained by limitations in availability and quality of data. This thesis explores the quality of both observational and modelled data, gives an overview of models used for large-scale hydrological modelling, and explores the possibilities to deal with the scarcity of data by prediction of flow-duration curves. The evaluation of the quality of observational data for large-scale hydrological modelling was based on both hydrographic data, and model forcing and evaluation data for basins worldwide. The results showed that a GIS polygon dataset outperformed all gridded hydrographic products analysed in terms of representation of basin areas. Through a screening methodology based on the long-term water-balance equation it was shown that as many as 8–43% of the basins analysed displayed inconsistencies between forcing (precipitation and potential evaporation) and evaluation (discharge) data depending on how datasets were combined. These data could prove disinformative in hydrological model inference and analysis. The quality of key hydrological variables from a numerical weather prediction model was assessed by benchmarking against observational datasets and by analysis of the internal land-surface water budgets of several different model setups. Long-term imbalances were found between precipitation and evaporation on the global scale and between precipitation, evaporation and runoff on both cell and basin scales. These imbalances were mainly attributed to the data assimilation system in which soil moisture is used as a nudge factor to improve weather forecasts. Regionalisation, i.e. transfer of information from data-rich areas to data-sparse areas, is a necessity in hydrology because of a lack of observed data in many areas. In this thesis, the possibility to predict flow-duration curves in ungauged basins was explored by testing several different methodologies including machine learning. The results were mixed, with some well predicted curves, but many predicted curves exhibited large biases and several methods resulted in unrealistic curves. / Vatten är en förutsättning för människors och ekosystems hälsa, men befolkningsökning och förändringar av klimat och markanvändning förväntas öka trycket på vattenresurserna i många regioner i världen. För att kunna säkerställa en god tillgång till vatten krävs kunskap om hur dessa resurser varierar i tid och rum. Tillförlitligheten hos skattningar av globala vattenresurser begränsas dock både av begränsad tillgänglighet av och kvalitet hos observerade data. Denna avhandling utforskar kvaliteten av såväl observations- som modellbaserade data, ger en överblick över modeller som används för storskalig hydrologisk modellering och utforskar möjligheterna att förutsäga varaktighetskurvor som ett sätt att hantera bristen på data i många områden. Utvärderingen av observationsbaserade datas kvalitet baserades på hydrografiska data och driv- och utvärderingsdata för storskaliga hydrologiska modeller. Resultaten visade att en uppsättning data över hydrografin baserad på GIS-polygoner representerade avrinningsområdesareorna bättre än alla de som byggde på rutor. En metod baserad på långtidsvattenbalansen identifierade att kombinationen av drivdata (nederbörd och potentiell avdunstning) och utvärderingsdata (vattenföring) var fysiskt orimlig för så många som 8–43 % av de analyserade avrinningsområdena beroende på hur olika datauppsättningar kombinerades. Sådana data kan vara desinformativa för slutsatser som dras av resultat från hydrologiska modeller och analyser. Kvaliteten hos hydrologiskt viktiga variabler från en numerisk väderprognosmodell utvärderades dels genom jämförelser med observationsdata och dels genom analys av landytans vattenbudget för ett flertal olika modellvarianter. Resultaten visade obalanser mellan långtidsvärden av nederbörd och avdunstning i global skala och mellan långtidsvärden av nederbörd, avdunstning och avrinning i både modellrute- och avrinningsområdesskala. Dessa obalanser skulle till stor del kunna förklaras av den data assimilering som görs, i vilken markvattenlagret används som en justeringsfaktor för att förbättra väderprognoserna. Regionalisering, som innebär en överföring av information från områden med god tillgång på mätdata till områden med otillräcklig tillgång, är i många fall nödvändig för hydrologisk analys på grund av att mätdata saknas i många områden. I denna avhandling utforskades möjligheten att förutsäga varaktighetskurvor för avrinningsområden utan vattenföringsdata genom flera metoder inklusive maskininlärning. Resultaten var blandade med en del kurvor som förutsas väl, och andra kurvor som visade stora systematiska avvikelser. Flera metoder resulterade i orealistiska kurvor (ickemonotona eller med negativa värden).

Knowledge about spatial and temporal variability of hydrological processes is central for sustainable water-resources management, and such knowledge is created from observational data. Hydrologic models are necessary for prediction for time periods and areas lacking data, but are affected by observational uncertainties. Methods for estimating and accounting for such uncertainties in water-resources modelling are of high importance, especially in regions such as Central America. Observational uncertainties were addressed in three ways in this thesis; quality control, quantitative estimation and development of model-evaluation techniques that addressed unquantifiable uncertainties. A first step in any modelling study should be the quality control and concurrent analysis of the representativeness of the observational data. In the characterisation of the precipitation regime in the Choluteca River basin in Honduras, four different quality problems were identified and 22% of the daily data had to be rejected. The monitoring network was found to be insufficient for a comprehensive characterisation of the high spatiotemporal variability of the precipitation regime. Quantitative estimations of data uncertainties can be made when sufficient information is available. Discharge-data uncertainties were estimated with a fuzzy regression for time-variable rating curves and from official rating curves for 35 stations in Honduras. The uncertainties were largest for low flows, as a result of measurement uncertainties and natural variability. A method for calibration with flow-duration curves was developed which enabled calibration to the whole flow range, accounting for discharge uncertainty and calibration with non-overlapping time periods for model input and evaluation data. The method compared favourably to traditional calibration in a test using two models applied in basins with different runoff-generation processes. A post-hoc analysis made it possible to identify potential model-structure errors and periods of disinformative data. Flow-duration curves were regionalised and used for calibration of a Central-American water-balance model. The initial model uncertainty for the ungauged basins was reduced by 70%. Non-representative precipitation data were found to be the main obstacle to comprehensive regional water-resources modelling in Central America. These methods bridged several problems related to observational uncertainties in water-balance modelling. Estimates of prediction uncertainty are an important basis for all types of decisions related to water-resources management. / Kännedom om hur hydrologiska processer varierar i tid och rum är grundläggande för hållbar vattenresursförvaltning och skapas utifrån observerade data. Hydrologiska modeller är nödvändiga för att förutsäga vattenbalansen för tidsperioder och områden utan data, men påverkas av observationsosäkerheter. Metoder för att hantera sådana osäkerheter i vattenresursmodellering är av stor betydelse i regioner såsom Centralamerika. Observationsosäkerheter hanterades på tre olika sätt i denna avhandling; kvalitetskontroll, kvantitativ uppskattning och utveckling av modellutvärderingsmetoder för beaktande av icke kvantifierbara osäkerheter. Ett viktigt första steg är kvalitetskontroll och samtidig analys av datas representativitet. Vid karaktäriseringen av nederbördsregimen i Cholutecaflodens avrinningsområde i Honduras identifierades fyra olika kvalitetsproblem och 22 % av data sorterades bort. Stationsnätet var otillräckligt för en fullödig karaktärisering av nederbördsregimens variationer i tid och rum. Dessa var mycket stora som ett resultat av komplexiteten hos de nederbördsgenererande mekanismerna. Kvantitativ uppskattning av observerade datas osäkerhet kan göras när tillräcklig information är tillgänglig. Osäkerheter i vattenföringsdata uppskattades dels vid beräkning av vattenföring med en oskarp regression för en tidsvariabel avbördningskurva, dels från en analys av officiella avbördningskurvor från 35 stationer i Honduras. Osäkerheten var i båda fallen högst vid låga flöden som ett resultat av högre mätosäkerheter samt större naturlig variabilitet än vid höga flöden. En metod för modellkalibrering med varaktighetskurvor utvecklades och gjorde det möjligt att kalibrera för hela flödesintervallet samtidigt, ta hänsyn till osäkerheter i vattenföringsdata samt kalibrera med icke överlappande driv- och utvärderingsdata. Metoden testades med två olika modeller i två avrinningsområden med olika avrinningsbildningsprocesser, och visade goda resultat jämfört med traditionell modellkalibrering. En post hoc-analys gjorde det möjligt att identifiera troliga modellstrukturfel och perioder med disinformativa data. Varaktighetskurvor regionaliserades och användes för kalibrering av en regional vattenbalansmodell för Centralamerika, varvid den initiala modellosäkerheten minskades med 70 %. Icke representativa nederbördsdata identifierades som det största hindret för regional vattenresursmodellering i Centralamerika. De metoder som utvecklades i detta arbete gör det möjligt att överbrygga ett flertal problem orsakade av bristfällig tillgänglighet och kvalitet av data och leder därmed till en förbättrad uppskattning av osäkerheten i vattenbalanssimuleringar. Sådana osäkerhetsskattningar är ett viktigt underlag vid alla typer av förvaltningsbeslut som rör vattenresurser.

Il s’agit d’un étude sur la régionalisation de la santé sous l’optique des acteurs municipaux, régionaux et de l’Etat, engagés en la gestion de la santé de treize Municipes de la ‘‘Moitié- Sud’’ du ‘‘Rio Grande do Sul’’, des instances régionales et relatives aux Etats, aussi que le pouvoir qui se constitue dans les espaces décisoires. Il est inséré dans le projet intitulé : ‘‘Les flux et l’utilisation des services de santé, la mobilité des utilisateurs et les nouveaux défis pour la Santé Publique’’. La thématique de l’étude a son structure basée en trois axes : le politique (comme l’organisateur de l’espace décisoire), l’espace géographique (comme celui qui fait l’implantation du procès de décision) et les acteurs sociaux (comme les executeurs du procès) en employant le rapport théorique de Carlos Matus et de Mario Testa. Elle objective analyser les stratégies et la configuration du pouvoir, lesquelles s’établissent dans le plant relative à la régionalisation compris dans l’espace géographique des Municipes qui composent l’ ‘‘ASSEDISA Centre-Sud’’, dans l’Etat du ‘‘Rio Grande do Sul’’, sous l’optique des acteurs institués et ceux de la gestion gouvernementale. La recherche possède une abordage qualificative et elle a eté développée avec les acteurs des treize Municipes qui appartiennent à l’ ‘‘ASSEDISA Centre-Sud’’ et ceux qui sont engagés au procès de régionalisation dans la Région et l’Etat. L’identification des catégories empiriques a eté réalisée par moyen de l’analyse thématique et, après, on est parti pour l’analyse stratégique proposée par Matus et Testa. Pour cela on a utilisé les variables de cette analyse : l’acteur, les apérations, les moyens stratégiques, le temps et, encore, les catégories : le pouvoir, l’espace de decision, les stratégies institutionelles et programatiques. Par l’analyse des résultats ont été signés le financement en Santé specialement en complexité moyenne et l’organisation du Système, comme les principaux problèmes qui ont fait face les acteurs du Municipe, pendant le procès de descentralisation en Santé. On a observé, aussi, leur difficulté d’accepter la responsabilité, sauf de la gestion de l’attention basique, et le crainte de l’acroissement de leur responsabilité par la signature du Pacte de Gestion, car ils repassaient déjà, en plus que le minimun constitutionnel. La discussion des fixes et des fluxes, qui passent le territoire de Santé, montre les difficultés qui les découpures spacieuses et les dessins des résaux ‘‘platrés’’ imposaient aux Municipes. De cette forme, ils utilisaient la capacité instalée de ‘‘Porto Alegre’’ pour les consultations et les procédés specialisés, au-delà des services de l’Association Intermunicipale Centre-Sud et ils envisageaient la complexité moyenne dans la Région, dans quelques hôpitaux. Le Programme Pactué et Intégré, le règlement en Santé et les analyses parvenues du Pacte de Gestion ont été considerées des mécanismes qui indiquaient l’execution des fluxes, lesquels, avec les fixes, ont de l’influence et sont influencés par le jeu politique où survient la distribution du pouvoir politique. Par cet étude a été indiquée la force des autres espaces décisoires sour les Municipes, specialement de la part du Ministère de la Santé qui a été consideré le protagoniste de l’arène décisoire et le guide de l’axe des Politiques Publiques, au Brésil. On conclut la necessité de répenser la consolidat / Trata-se de um estudo sobre a regionalização da saúde sob a ótica de atores municipais, regionais e estaduais, envolvidos com a gestão em saúde de treze Municípios da “Metade Sul” do Rio Grande do Sul, instâncias regionais e estaduais, bem como o poder que se constitui nos espaços decisórios. Está inserido no projeto intitulado “Fluxos e utilização de serviços de saúde: a mobilidade de usuários e os novos desafios para a Saúde Pública”. A temática do estudo se estrutura em três grandes eixos: o político (como organizador do espaço decisório), o espaço geográfico (como operacionalizador do processo de decisão) e os atores sociais (como executores do processo), utilizando-se do referencial teórico de Carlos Matus e de Mario Testa. Objetiva analisar as estratégias e a configuração de poder que se estabelecem no planejamento relativo à regionalização, compreendido no espaço geográfico dos Municípios que compõem a ASSEDISA Centro-Sul no Estado do Rio Grande do Sul, sob a ótica de atores institucionais e da gestão governamental. Possui abordagem qualitativa e foi desenvolvido junto a atores municipais dos treze Municípios pertencentes à ASSEDISA Centro-Sul e a atores regionais e estaduais envolvidos no processo de regionalização na Região e no Estado. A identificação das categorias empíricas foi realizada por meio da análise temática e, após, partiu-se para a análise estratégica proposta por Matus e Testa. Para tanto, utilizou-se das variáveis de análise estratégica: ator, operações, meios estratégicos e tempo e, a categoria poder, espaço de decisão, estratégias institucionais e programáticas. Pela análise dos resultados foi apontado o financiamento em Saúde, especialmente, em média complexidade, e a organização do Sistema como os principais problemas enfrentados pelos atores municipais no processo de descentralização em saúde. Por outro lado, observou-se a dificuldade que estes tinham em aceitar sua responsabilidade, além da gestão da atenção básica, e o receio do aumento da responsabilidade pela assinatura do Pacto de Gestão, pois os mesmos já vinham repassando além do mínimo constitucional. A discussão de fixos e fluxos que perpassam o território de Saúde demonstra as dificuldades que os atuais recortes espaciais e desenhos de redes “engessados” vinham impondo aos Municípios. Dessa forma, esses utilizavam a capacidade instalada de Porto Alegre para consultas e procedimentos especializados, além dos serviços do Consórcio Intermunicipal Centro-Sul e focavam a média complexidade na Região, em alguns hospitais regionais. Já a Programação Pactuada e Integrada, a regulação em Saúde e as análises oriundas do Pacto de Gestão foram considerados mecanismos que apontavam para a efetivação dos fluxos. Tanto os fixos quanto os fluxos influenciam e são influenciados pelo jogo político, sendo que nesse ocorre a distribuição do poder político. O presente apontou a força dos demais espaços decisórios sobre os Municípios, especialmente, por parte do Ministério da Saúde que foi apontado como o protagonista da arena decisória e orientador do eixo das políticas públicas no Brasil. Conclui-se a necessidade de se repensar a consolidação da microrregião, a partir da análise situacional, local e regional, bem como a reorganização do Sistema de Saúde. / This is a study on the regionalization of health service under the optics of municipal, regional and state actors involved with the health management of thirteen municipalities in the "southern half" of Rio Grande do Sul, regional and state bodies, as well as the power which is constituted in decision-making spaces. The present study is part of a project entitled "Flows and Utilization of Health Services: Mobility of Users and New Challenges for Public Health". The theme of the study is structured around three main axes: the politic space (as organizer of the decision-making space), the geographic space (as operator in the decision-making process), and the social actors (as executors of the process), using the theoretical referential of Carlos Matus and Mario Testa. It had the objective of analyzing the strategies and the configuration of power which are established in planning related to regionalization included in the geographical area of the municipalities that compose the Center-South ASSEDISA in the State of Rio Grande do Sul from the viewpoint of institutional actors as well as government managers. It used a qualitative approach and was developed with municipal actors of the thirteen mentioned municipalities which belong to Center-South ASSEDISA and the regional and state actors involved in the process of regionalization, both in the region and in the state. The identification of empirical categories was pursued through the thematic analysis and then it as done a strategic analysis proposed by Matus and Testa. To do so, it was used the variables of strategic analysis: actor, operations, strategic resources and time; and the categories of power, decision-making space as well as institutional and programmatic strategies. By the analysis of the results, the health financing – especially the one of average complexity, and the organization of the system were appointed as the main problems faced by local actors in the process of decentralization of health. On the other hand, it was noted the difficulty they had to accept their own responsibility, besides the management of basic care, and the fear of increasing responsibility by signing the Pact of Management because they had already been offering subsidies beyond the constitutional minimum. The discussion of ‘fixed’ and ‘flows’ that permeate the territory of Health shows the difficulties that today’s spatial records and drawings of "plastered" networks were imposing to the municipalities. In this way, they used the installed capacity of Porto Alegre for health service and specialized procedures, besides the services of Inter-municipal Center-South Consortium and focused the average complexity in the region, in some regional hospitals. Both ‘fixed’ and ‘flows’ influence and are influenced by the political game, being notorious the distribution of political power. This study pointed to the strength of other decision-making spaces on the municipalities, especially, by the Ministry of Health which was appointed as the protagonist of decision-making arena and public policy axis guiding in Brazil. It is concluded the need of rethinking the consolidation of micro-region, from the situational, local and regional analysis as well as the reorganization of the Health System. / Se trata de un estudio sobre la regionalización de la salud bajo la óptica de actores municipales, regionales y estaduales, involucrados con la gestión en salud de trece Municipios de la “Mitad Sur” del Río Grande del Sur, instancias regionales y estaduales, bien como el poder que se constituye en los espacios decisorios. Está inserido en el proyecto intitulado “Flujos y utilización de servicios de salud: la movilidad de usuarios y los nuevos retos para la Salud Pública”. La temática del estudio se estructura en tres grandes ejes: el político (como organizador del espacio decisorio), el espacio geográfico (como operacionalizador del proceso de decisión) y los actores sociales (como ejecutores del proceso), utilizándose del referencial teórico de Carlos Matus y de Mario Testa. Objetiva analizar las estrategias y la configuración de poder que se establecen en el planteamiento relativo a la regionalización, comprendido en el espacio geográfico de los Municipios que componen la ASSEDISA Centro-Sur en el Estado del Río Grande del Sur, bajo la óptica de actores institucionales y de la gestión gubernamental. Posee abordaje cualitativo y fue desarrollado junto a actores municipales de los trece Municipios pertenecientes a la ASSEDISA Centro-Sur y a actores regionales y estaduales involucrados en el proceso de regionalización en la Región y en el Estado. La identificación de las categorías empíricas fue realizada por medio del análisis temático y, luego, se partió para el análisis estratégico propuesto por Matus y Testa. Para tanto, se utilizó de las variables de análisis estratégico: actor, operaciones, medios estratégicos y tiempo y, la categoría poder, espacio de decisión, estrategias institucionales y programáticas. Por el análisis de los resultados fue apuntado el financiamiento en Salud, especialmente, en mediana complexidad, y la organización del Sistema como los principales problemas enfrentados por los actores municipales en el proceso de descentralización en salud. Por otro lado, se observó la dificultad que éstos tenían en aceptar su responsabilidad, además de la gestión de la atención básica, y el recelo del aumento de la responsabilidad por la firma del Pacto de Gestión, pues los mismos ya venían repasando además del mínimo constitucional. La discusión de fijos y flujos que pasan el territorio de Salud demuestra las dificultades que los actuales recortes espaciales y dibujos de redes “enyesados” venían imponiendo a los Municipios. De esa forma, ésos utilizaban la capacidad instalada de Porto Alegre para consultas y procedimientos especializados, además de los servicios del Consorcio Intermunicipal Centro-Sur y enfocaban la media complexidad en la Región, en algunos hospitales regionales. Ya la Programación Pactuada e Integrada, la regulación en Salud y el análisis oriundos del Pacto de Gestión fueron considerados mecanismos que señalaban para la efectuación de los flujos. Tanto los fijos cuanto los flujos influencian y son influenciados por el juego político, siendo que en ése ocurre la distribución del poder político. El presente señaló la fuerza de los demás espacios decisorios sobre los Municipios, especialmente, por parte del Ministerio de la Salud que fue apuntado como el protagonista de la arena decisoria y orientador del eje de las políticas públicas en el Brasil. Se concluye la necesidad de se repensar la consolidación de la microrregión, a partir del análisis situacional, local y regional, bien como la reorganización del Sistema de Salud.