Historically, the USA and Russian Federation have been two world powers that used to compete for a dominant power position in the bipolar world and spread influence on less developed countries. Relationships between the USA and Russia have mostly been complex and tense,with several escalation periods during the Cold War. Relationships between the USA and Russia in the 21st century can also be characterized by complexity and ambiguousness. The issues emerged in the process of power struggle created more tension between countries. This study aims to research framing Russia in the National Security Strategy of the United States of America issued from 2002 to 2022. The thesis also includes a history of USA-Russia relationships, and a historical review of the National Security Strategy issued since 1986. The theory that is chosen for the research is social constructivism. Within a single case-study design,I use the framing analysis method to apply to data gathered from the empirical materials –original texts of the National Security Strategy of the United States of America that are total seven within the mentioned period. Along with other conclusions, I found a tendency of negative framing after 2014 when Russia annexed Crimea and the persuasive presence of such positive frames as partnership and development, and negative frames – threat, regress, economic impact and competitive nature of relationships between countries. The degree of attention of the USA towards Russia switched periodically from being reasonably even in four issues of the National Security Strategy to bringing Russia in focus. The USA brought Russia to the most attention in 2022 and was least concentrated on Russia in the 2021 report.

Indiana University-Purdue University Indianapolis (IUPUI) / In the early 1950s, President Dwight Eisenhower encouraged citizens to “Wake Up! Sign Up! Look Up!” to the Soviet atomic threat by joining the Ground Observer Corps (GOC). Established by the United States Air Force (USAF), the GOC involved civilian volunteers surveying the skies for Soviet aircraft via watchtowers, alerting the Air Force if they suspected threatening aircraft. This thesis examines the 1950s response to the longstanding problem posed by the invention of any new weapon: how to adapt defensive technology to meet the potential threat. In the case of the early Cold War period, the GOC was the USAF’s best, albeit faulty, defense option against a weapon that did not discriminate between soldiers and citizens and rendered traditional ground troops useless. After the Korean War, Air Force officials promoted the GOC for its espousal of volunteerism and individualism. Encouraged to take ownership of the program, observers appropriated the GOC for their personal and community needs, comprised of social gatherings and policing activities, thus greatly expanding the USAF’s original objectives.

本文將以北方造船廠與波羅的海造船廠競標軍售中國「現代級」驅逐艦訂單之個案為例，透過國家安全研究途徑、國際戰略研究途徑以及決策研究途徑 ，檢視俄羅斯軍售中國政策之形成，從而探討俄羅斯軍售政策在普欽鞏固政權過程中之角色，並研析該項發展對台海安全之意涵，研究1991年至2006年期間俄羅斯軍售中國政策，並且探討其對亞太暨台海安全之衝擊，本文將闡釋從政治、經濟以及戰略層面，探討1991年至2006年期間俄羅斯對中國軍售的內外在驅動因素，及其對亞太和台海安全之衝擊。 本文認為，俄羅斯對中國軍售政策，乃是普欽鞏固權力過程之重要一環，2000年普欽上台後，俄羅斯葉里欽幫與聖彼得堡幫互相角力，競逐政經資源，以本案為例，波羅的海造船廠之最後勝出，乃是俄羅斯軍售中國政策形成之主導權從葉里欽幫 (經濟優先派/葉里欽人馬/莫斯科幫：卡西亞諾夫˙佛洛申派) 轉移到聖彼得堡幫 (國安優先派/普欽人馬/聖彼得堡幫) 手中之必然結果，因此，俄羅斯對中國軍售政策之形成，顯然有其政經與安全之考量，而其政商互動關係則為政策形成之關鍵，至於該項政策之形成與執行過程，則往往產生派系之間爭奪資源交換利益之重大弊端；而該項政策之執行結果，勢將影響亞太地區之區域安全；從而，勢將影響台海安全之均衡情勢，因此俄羅斯對中國軍售政策之形成乃是由於克里姆林宮政治勢力在內外在環境環節關聯下互動形塑而成的。 上述假設命題衍生出來下列邏輯相關的子命題： (一) 俄羅斯對中國軍售政策之形成與執行過程，則往往產生派系之間爭奪資源交換利益之重大弊端。在軍售中國訂單的決策過程 (Decision-Making Process) 中，波羅的海造船廠(Baltiisky Zavod shipyard;Балтийский завод) 之最後勝出，乃是俄羅斯軍售中國政策形成之主導權從葉里欽幫轉移到聖彼得堡幫手中之必然結果。 (二) 軍售弊案中的派系與兩個造船廠之間政商互動關係則為俄羅斯對中國軍售政策形成之關鍵。 (三) 俄國軍售中國訂單的俄國決策階層在決策考量上及俄羅斯對中國軍售政策之形成，顯然有其政經與安全之考量，2000至2004年期間，俄羅斯對中國軍售的政策，主要是受到俄羅斯國內政治互動，經濟發展考量，以及戰略三角互動等內外在因素的驅動，俄羅斯對中國軍售政策，乃是普欽鞏固權力過程 (Consolidating Power Process) 之重要一環。 (四) 俄羅斯對中國軍售政策之執行結果，勢將影響亞太地區之區域安全；從而，勢將影響台海安全之均衡情勢。 / 本文將以北方造船廠 (Северная верфь; Severnaya Verf) 與波羅的海造船廠(Балтийский завод; Baltiisky Zavod shipyard) 競標軍售中國「現代級」驅逐艦訂單之個案為例，透過國家安全研究途徑 (National Security Approach) 、國際戰略研究途徑 (International Strategic Approach) 以及決策研究途徑 (decision-making Approach) ，檢視俄羅斯軍售中國政策之形成，從而探討俄羅斯軍售政策在普欽鞏固政權過程中之角色，並研析該項發展對台海安全之意涵，研究1991年至2006年期間俄羅斯軍售中國政策，並且探討其對亞太暨台海安全之衝擊，本文將闡釋從政治、經濟以及戰略層面，探討1991年至2006年期間俄羅斯對中國軍售的內外在驅動因素，及其對亞太和台海安全之衝擊。 本文認為，俄羅斯對中國軍售政策，乃是普欽鞏固權力過程之重要一環。2000年普欽上台後，俄羅斯葉里欽幫與聖彼得堡幫互相角力，競逐政經資源。以本案為例，波羅的海造船廠之最後勝出，乃是俄羅斯軍售中國政策形成之主導權從葉里欽幫 (經濟優先派/葉里欽人馬/莫斯科幫：卡西亞諾夫˙沃洛申派) 轉移到聖彼得堡幫 (國安優先派/普欽人馬/聖彼得堡幫) 手中之必然結果。因此，俄羅斯對中國軍售政策之形成，顯然有其政經與安全之考量，而其政商互動關係則為政策形成之關鍵，至於該項政策之形成與執行過程，則往往產生派系之間爭奪資源交換利益之重大弊端；而該項政策之執行結果，勢將影響亞太地區之區域安全；從而，勢將影響台海安全之均衡情勢。 / 因此，本文認為： (一) 俄羅斯對中國軍售政策之形成與執行過程，則往往產生派系之間爭奪資源交換利益之重大弊端，在軍售中國訂單的決策過程中，波羅的海造船廠之最後勝出，乃是俄羅斯軍售中國政策形成之主導權從葉里欽幫轉移到聖彼得堡幫手中之必然結果： 2001年4月，北廠把公司的控股賣給了俄羅斯國際工業銀行(Межотраслевой промышленный банк; Mezhprombank) ，進而使俄國造船局 (Российское агентство по судостроению; Russian Shipbuilding Agency) 在北方造船廠的事先運作下而受到影響，因此俄國造船局屬意由北廠得標，由於將自己的親信安插在俄國武器出口公司與國防部內且加強國防部在對外軍售與武器輸出管制上的權力，並且克里姆林宮在2001年底前就已宣布有關軍售中國訂單的醜聞的計劃，根據最早的計劃，俄克里姆林宮掌握了中國造艦案訂單的最早決議是由俄國造船局與北方造船廠之間所共同做出的決定，在2002年1月3日契約簽訂之前是由俄國造船局擔任訂單招標的決定機構，但在2002年1月3日契約簽訂之後，訂單招標的決定機構就變成俄國武器出口公司擔任訂單招標的決定機構，於是波羅的海造船廠的主張與策略是透過團結黨在國家杜馬議員別赫金 (Владимир Пехтин; Vladimir Pekhtin) 審查北廠漏繳國庫案，打擊北廠，並且透過對克列巴諾夫副總理的遊說，而使克列巴諾夫重新重啟招標，因此聖彼得堡幫與波廠獲取這次爭食訂單的勝利。 2000年普欽上台後，俄羅斯葉里欽幫與聖彼得堡幫互相角力，競逐政經資源。 俄羅斯對中國軍售政策之形成與執行過程，則往往產生聖彼得堡幫及葉里欽派(Yeltin bloc)之間爭奪資源交換利益之重大弊端，在波羅的海造船廠對聖彼得堡幫的遊說下且北方造船廠在葉里欽派的支持下，雙方相互爭奪俄國軍售中國武器的訂單，對兩大派系而言是爭取軍售及軍售決策政府單位的決策主導權，因此俄羅斯對中國軍售政策之形成與執行過程產生北方造船廠與波羅的海造船廠爭食訂單之重大弊端，葉里欽親信在葉里欽總統下台後頓失舞台，葉里欽親信為了保其殘存勢力的延續而與新寡頭結合，葉里欽親信與新舊寡頭結合後與普欽的親信派爭權奪利導致了俄中軍售弊案的發生。 / (二) 軍售弊案中的派系與兩個造船廠之間政商互動關係則為俄羅斯對中國軍售政策形成之關鍵： 俄國造船廠與克里姆林宮政治派系利益掛勾，在對中國軍售上為了贏得訂單而運用其政商關係，在軍售弊案中，沃洛申 (Волошину Александру; Alexander Voloshin) 集團與北方造船廠 (Северная верфь; Severnaya Verf) 之間的政商互動關係以及聖彼得堡幫 (St. peterburg bloc) 與波羅的海造船廠 (Балтийский завод; Baltiisky Zavod shipyard) 之間的政商互動關係則為俄羅斯對中國軍售政策形成之關鍵，沃洛申集團 (Voloshin clan;Yeltin clan; Economic Advice bloc (經濟優先派/葉里欽人馬/莫斯科幫：卡西亞諾夫(Касьянов Михаил Михайлович; Mihail Mihaylovich Kasyanov)與沃洛申派) 的形成與成員是以葉里欽時期金融寡頭及軍企寡頭等的親中勢力為主，聖彼得堡幫是普欽總統的人馬與派系，聖彼得堡幫的成員遍及軍企、媒體、俄國武器出口部門、國會及政府內閣與總統辦公廳內部，經濟顧問派的龍頭則為總理卡西亞諾夫：安全顧問派的龍頭則是克列巴諾夫 (Клебанова Ильи; Ilya Klebanova) ，在這兩大派系的背後，又都各擁有一個龐大的財團支持。與卡西亞諾夫聯盟的財團與公司則是波塔寧 (Потанин Владимир Олегович; Vladmir O.Potanin) 與謝爾蓋‧普加契夫 (Sergey Pugachev) 支持的北方造船廠；與克列巴諾夫聯盟的財團與公司是波羅的海造船廠。 / (三) 俄國軍售中國訂單的俄國決策階層在決策考量上及俄羅斯對中國軍售政策之形成，顯然有其政經與安全之考量，2000至2004年期間，俄羅斯對中國軍售的政策，主要是受到俄羅斯國內政治互動，經濟發展考量，以及戰略三角互動等內外在因素的驅動，俄羅斯對中國軍售政策，乃是普欽鞏固權力過程之重要一環： 1.經濟因素影響了俄國對中國軍售政策的形成： 在普欽的認知與觀點上,俄中戰略夥伴關係是用來賺錢的工具且是在俄中戰略夥伴關係架構下軍火貿易的平台上而有賺錢的機會，俄羅斯在經濟領域的國家利益是最主要的國家利益，只有在穩定發展經濟的基礎上才能解決與俄羅斯國家利益有關的問題， 俄羅斯軍售中國賺取外匯挹注經濟發展，才有可能達成軍事現代化且使俄羅斯賺取外匯以準備發展新一代核武器和高精尖武器裝備。 為了國防工業轉產、國內經濟大幅衰退、賺取外匯挹注經濟發展：軍售中國是為了因應俄羅斯國內政治生態與經濟發展互動的需求。普欽希望能爭取到軍事工業集團的支援，特別是軍工企業旗下的大批工人；因為軍售中國可以創造相當數量的就業機會。 因為俄國總統普欽希望能夠爭取到軍火利益團體的支持，在俄國國內政治勢力與俄國軍工企業向俄國政府的要求下，所以普欽政府大量的軍售中國，普欽的目的是要換取俄國軍工企業的支持， 扶持軍事工業以收攬軍工複合體(военно-промышленный комплекс; Military-Industrial Complex) 勢力是普欽經濟發展的策略之一，事實上，軍售中國是為了因應俄羅斯國內政治生態與經濟發展互動的需求，普欽希望能爭取到軍事工業集團的支援，特別是軍工企業旗下的大批工人；因為軍售中國可以創造相當數量的就業機會。 在政治因素上，俄羅斯國內的軍火工業從業人口佔有相當大的比例，普欽為了贏得下一屆總統選舉，勢必要為軍火工業製造利多消息，藉以換取軍火工業人口的選票，因此普欽企圖以軍售中國爭取軍工集團的支持，以爭取軍工企業工人選票，普欽企圖以軍售中國賺取外匯挹注經濟發展，才有可能達成軍事現代化的目標，以此訴求爭取軍方支持，軍售中國是俄國國內政治的要求，因為俄國總統普欽希望能夠爭取到軍火利益團體的支持，特別是軍火業雇用大批工人，對俄國經濟來說非常重要，此外，它也能資助俄國軍力的現代化，而這正是普欽的另一重要意圖， 普欽認為軍售中國能資助俄國軍力的現代化，因此普欽及其親信為了要擴大權勢以及要控制軍工領域而使普欽可以徹底而確實的推動一系列的的國防工業體制改革與軍事改革而須掌控軍工企業，俄羅斯希望經由對中國的武器出口交易及軍事科技轉移，來吸取中國在軍轉民用政策上的經驗，以有效掌握其技術和資金，積極推動俄國龐大的軍企在民用化方面的成效，從而改善人民的生活，增加俄軍財源，以補充其軍費， 緩解軍工企業困難，為其進一步發展積累啟動資金，增加外匯收入，緩解國內經濟危機。 2. 國家安全因素是俄國軍售中國訂單的俄國決策階層在決策時的考量： 普欽軍售中國的國家安全考量乃是為了挽救俄羅斯衆多的軍工企業與科研機構不致於陷入舉步維艱的境地且減少對於俄羅斯國防實力和國家安全上的直接威脅，普欽為了減低軍方在國家安全方面的疑慮，承諾軍售中國將會有所限制，中國在採購大量的俄制軍備後，有可能反噬俄羅斯，再加上中國威脅論的推波助瀾，俄羅斯未來在對中國的軍售上勢必會多加考慮。 3. 國際戰略因素是俄國軍售中國訂單的俄國決策階層在決策時的考量： 就戰略觀點來看，俄國決定銷售精密複雜的武器 (sophisticated weaponry)給中國，乃是基於俄國的國家利益 (national interests) ，及俄國的整體國家經濟 (overall economic) 和地緣政治 (Geopolitics) 等因素制約驅使所致。 俄中軍火貿易是俄中戰略協作的一環，俄羅斯當前的外交策略是東西並重，而非過去的一面倒向西方，藉由對中國的軍售來拉攏中國，以增加俄羅斯對西方世界談判的籌碼，提高國際地位，增加對國際事務的影響力，俄希望在國際軍事衝突中，交戰雙方都使用俄製武器，這樣在解決國際事務過程中手中就多了一張可討價還價的政治籌碼，有利於俄對國際事務施加影響。俄羅斯對於印度與中國兩國的軍火交易有相當大的差異，相較於印度並未與俄羅斯直接相鄰，中國與俄羅斯有相當長的國界相鄰，俄羅斯再出售武器給予中國的同時必須顧及到將來若與中國發生衝突的可能性，俄羅斯出售軍備給予中國，但不可避免的，必須去面臨日益強大的中國在俄羅斯東部所形成的威脅，因此俄羅斯在出售武器給予中國的同時也出售軍火給予印度，俄羅斯提供武器給與印度具有很大的戰略考量，俄羅斯提供給印度的武器較中國先進，對於俄羅斯來說，這樣的差異，是基於考慮到提供印度較為先進的武器可以牽制中國的勢力，俄羅斯聯合中國互為奧援，對於俄羅斯提昇國際地位的努力，不失為是一項最佳的選擇，此外，近年來俄羅斯求在經濟上有所作為，把中國視為主要的軍火銷售對象，俄中睦鄰友好合作條約 (The Russia-China Friendship and Cooperation Treaty) 的簽訂，無疑將有助於增進雙方的軍火交易， 同時由於俄國政府採取親美以削弱親中勢力的政策，2002年簽訂俄美削減攻擊性戰略武器條約 (Strategic. Offensive Reductions Treaty, STORT) ，並建立了美俄戰略夥伴關係，俄國此舉乃是為了要擺脫中國之戰略羈絆。 4.克里姆林宮政治 (Kremlin politics) 影響了俄國軍售中國訂單的俄國決策階層的決策： 俄羅斯聖彼得堡幫及葉里欽幫互相競逐俄羅斯軍售中國政策形成之主導權，雙方為了要削弱對方的勢力，普欽時期的軍企寡頭 (Arms sale oligarchy) 嚴重影響了軍售中國訂單的決策，安全體系官僚 (National Security bloc) 與經濟體系官僚 (Economic Advice bloc) 兩個派系與軍企寡頭在軍售弊案中的政商關係及利益交換影響了俄羅斯對中國軍售政策之形成，普欽整肅葉里欽遺留下來的軍企寡頭勢力，建立以國家安全團隊為主幹的軍售中國的決策執政團隊，以鞏固其政權基礎，普欽上任後有計劃得為了擴大鞏固權勢而整頓國防體制與整肅寡頭，因此將自己的親信安插在俄國武器出口公司 (Рособоронэкспортом; Rosoboronexport) 與國防部 (Министерство обороны, РФ; Ministerstvo oborony, RF) 內且加強國防部在對外軍售與武器輸出管制上的權力，在普欽於西元2000年當選俄國總統後，克里姆林宮政治勢力與新興的財團勢力相結合，成為主導莫斯科決策動向的新寡頭，普欽作為一個成功的權力平衡者，必須隨時掌握派系政治的動向，以合縱連橫的政治藝術，來鞏固其政權，普欽上任後有計劃得為了擴大鞏固權勢而整頓國防體制與整肅寡頭，因此將自己的親信安插在俄國武器出口公司與國防部內且加強國防部在對外軍售與武器輸出管制上的權力：普欽的親信人馬正在積極搶奪葉里欽派系人馬所控制的政經資源，雙方鬥爭激烈，與中國的驅逐艦合約也變成了這場鬥爭中的一個籌碼。 普欽在2000年高票當選俄國總統，普欽高票當選，地位鞏固；普欽手腕靈活，讓國家杜馬 (Gosudarstvennaya Duma;Государственная Дума) 形成親政府的穩定多數派，並使其人馬進駐國家安全強力部門；從而普欽可以順利推動對外政策方針與對中國軍售決策，兩家造船廠後面的財閥集團和官方幫助兩家造船廠積極對承辦軍售案的相關人員進行關說活動，俄羅斯對中國軍售政策之形成與執行過程，則往往產生派系之間爭奪資源交換利益之重大弊端。 俄國出售先進武器給中國似是違反俄國國家安全，但是普欽的主要目的是藉此取得國內軍火利益團體的政治支持，因為軍火業可製造較多的就業機會，有助於強化俄國的經濟以及軍事現代化， 對外軍售對於普欽 (Путин Владимир Владимирович; Vladimir Putin) 而言，也是振興經濟的選項之一，出售軍火具有經濟以及政治上的利益，在經濟上可以藉由出售軍火快速獲得大量的外匯，以此便可以暫時舒緩經濟上的困境，而在政治上，普欽以軍售挽救俄羅斯軍火工業將可以贏得軍火工廠員工的支持，而支持也將會在選舉中化為選票，同樣的，提振了經濟也有助於普欽及團結黨 (Unity) 在大選時的支持度，但是出售軍火給予中國首先必須面對軍方的強烈反彈，為此，普欽進行一連串的軍事改革及經改與軍企改革，進而普欽可以用軍售中國賺取外匯挹注經濟發展，才有可能達成軍事現代化的目標，來爭取以此訴求爭取軍方支持，普欽藉俄羅斯對中國軍售政策以鞏固政權 （Consolidating Power） 。 / (四) 俄羅斯對中國軍售政策之執行結果，勢將影響亞太地區之區域安全；從而，勢將影響台海安全之均衡情勢： 由於俄國決定軍售給中國高科技武器的決策，並且在普欽政府的控制下，包括該訂單在內的所有高科技武器將引起亞太各國的不安與影響台海安全，從而使兩岸關係進入軍備競賽且使俄國得以藉由軍售中國制衡美中關係，從而牽制中美兩國。我國的因應必須是加強我國在國防軍購上加強對美國及他國的武器購買，同時要求各國對俄國大量軍售中國一事的重視。 / The main first purpose of this study is to explore, through National Security Approach ,International Strategic Approach and decision-making Approach explore Russian arms sales scandal. The main level of The thesis is to explore and study scandal on sino-Russia arms sales by International politics system level of analysis, National system level of analysis and Decision-making level of analysis.The method of The thesis is to explore and study scandal on sino-Russia arms sales with a case study which Northern shipyard and Baltiisky Zavod shipyard struggle for order of tender for arms sales Sovremenny Class destroyers--Project 956 toward P.R.C in 2002 and the main second purpose of this study is to explore pro-China clan and pro-USA clan of Russia struggle for leading right of formation of decision-making in Russian arms sales policy toward P.R.C. and explore formation of decision-making in Russian arms sales policy toward P.R.C.. the main third purpose of this study is to explore inner-extra cause and Context of Vladimir Putin’s arms sales policy toward P.R.C. and explore what role and funcation of Russian arms sales policy toward P.R.C. is in Consolidating Power process of Russia president Vladimir Putin. the main fourth purpose of this study is to explore the impact on Taiwan Strait security by Russia–Chain’s military exchange. It is hypothesized in this study that Russian arms sales policy toward P.R.C. is a part of Consolidating Power process of Russia president Vladimir Putin, pro-China clan and pro-USA clan of Russia struggle for leading right and resource of process of decision-making of politics and economy and each public policy,in the case study that Northern shipyard and Baltiisky Zavod shipyard struggle for order of tender for arms sales Sovremenny Class destroyers--Project 956 toward P.R.C in 2002, That Baltiisky Zavod shipyard final get the tender is leading right of formation of decision-making in Russian arms sales policy toward P.R.C. transfer to pro-USA clan (National Security bloc/ Putin Bloc/ St. Petersburg Bloc) from pro-China clan (Economic Advice bloc/ Yeltin bloc/ Moscow bloc: Kasyanov and Voloshin Bloc),therefore, Considerations on formation of decision-making of Russian arms sales policy toward P.R.C. is including of politics, economy and strategic and relations between business, oligarchy and politican in process of decision-making of Russian arms sales policy toward P.R.C. is the key-point, formation of decision-making and process of activity of Russian arms sales policy toward P.R.C. gives rise to abuses which struggle for money and political power and economy interests and exchange and collective self-interest, the final ending of the decision- activity of Russian arms sales policy toward P.R.C. ought to effects regional security in Asia Pacific area and effects Cross- Straits Security ,therefore , cause of formation of decision-making of Russian arms sales policy toward P.R.C. is that interaction of clans of Kremlin politics in the internal and external factors under Vladimir Putin. This hypothesis can be further developed into the following logically consequential sub-propositions: 1. Formation of decision-making and process of activity of Russian arms sales policy toward P.R.C. gives rise to abuses which struggle for money and political power and economy interests and exchange and collective self-interest,in decision-making of tender in Russian arms sales policy toward P.R.C., Baltiisky Zavod shipyard final get the tender is leading right of formation of decision-making in Russian arms sales policy toward P.R.C. transfer to pro-USA clan (National Security bloc/ Putin Bloc/ St. Petersburg Bloc) from pro-China clan (Economic Advice bloc/ Yeltin bloc/ Moscow bloc: Kasyanov and Voloshin Bloc). 2. Clans of arms sales scandal and relations between business, oligarchy and politican of two Shipbuilding plant is the key-point of formation of decision-making of Russian arms sales policy toward P.R.C.. 3. Considerations on formation of decision-making of decision-making level of Russian arms sales policy toward P.R.C. is including of politics, economy and strategic, During 2000-2004, Russian arms sales policy toward P.R.C. has been driven by Russia’s internal and external factors, such as the interaction of strategic triangle politics; Kremlin politics and economic development and Russian arms sales policy toward P.R.C. is a part of Consolidating Power process of Russia president Vladimir Putin. 4. the final ending of the decision- activity of Russian arms sales policy toward P.R.C. ought to effects regional security in Asia Pacific area and effects Cross- Straits Security.

冷戰結束後的世界，使人們重新思考安全的定義，傳統的安全觀已無法應付日益嚴重的全球性危機以及許多非軍事領域的問題，安全的涵蓋面向從國防、軍事延伸至經濟、社會、政治、環境等領域，而安全所關注的對象亦從國家擴展至國際及社會、個人層面，新的安全觀逐漸被重視，其中以提升個人及全人類安全與福祉的人類安全，最符合聯合國及國際社會所強調的以人為中心的發展及安全觀。 人類安全概念經聯合國開發計畫署闡述後，受到國際社會之重視與推展，其實踐需結合全球治理與全球公民社會之理念，經由保障及自授權力兩途徑，使人們之自由與安全受到保障，並有能力維護自身與他人權益。國際上，以闡述並推行人類安全為宗旨之國際性組織與委員會相繼成立，聯合國中亦有人類安全信託基金之設置，對概念之研究與計畫之推動均有相當大的貢獻。而在各個國家中，以加拿大和日本推行人類安全成效最為卓著，在提升免於恐懼及免於匱乏的自由上，均有相當大之進展。 台灣身處軍事敏感地區，一方面有全球化下各國非傳統安全問題跨越國界之威脅，一方面亦有自身內部經濟、社會等領域之安全考量，為提升台灣人民之自由、安全與福祉並與國際社會接軌，台灣應以人類安全為基礎，結合非政府組織與公民社會力量，積極參與國際議程設定，與國際社會對話，維護自身生存與權益，負起推動並維護人類永續發展之責。 本論文從歷史發展過程，探討人類安全及相關概念，在安全概念之演變部分，首先探討傳統安全概念、後冷戰時期國際局勢之演變以及非傳統安全問題之顯現，接著介紹聯合國開發計畫署1994年之《人類發展報告》、以人類安全為主題之國際各大會議與國際組織的討論，以及聯合國相關組織與人類安全之關連，並對聯合國所扮演之角色提出建議。 在人類安全概念內涵部分，首先介紹國際組織、加拿大、日本及學者們對人類安全之定義，其次介紹人類安全之指標、人類安全與其他安全概念（如合作安全、綜合安全）之區分，最後則闡述人類安全與人權概念間之關係。 在人類安全的實踐部分，首先介紹人類安全之實踐途徑與方法、全球治理理念與全球公民社會之概念、亞洲國家對人類安全之觀點、在國際上對人類安全的實踐以及人類安全之爭議。 在人類安全與台灣部分，提出台灣所面臨之各類威脅，並引用人類發展指數相關概念介紹台灣發展現況，以及介紹加拿大與日本以人類安全觀點為基礎之外交政策及實踐成果，希望對於台灣人類安全之推動能有所啟發。 / After the end of the Cold War, people started to rethink the definition of safety. The traditional view of security was no longer capable of dealing with serious global crises and other daily non-military problems. The study of Security extends from national defense and military affairs to such fields as Economy, Society, Politics, and Environment among others; its target also expands from that of the state to the international, the social, and the personal. The new view of Security has been given a gradual increase of attention. Among such, Human Security, which is the improvement of the safety and welfare of individuals and the entire mankind, accords with the view of people-centered development and the view of people-centered security that the United Nations and the international community emphasize most. After explaining the concept of Human Security in the United Nations Development Programme, it received the international society’s attention and impetus—the practice of which requires the effort combination of the whole world and the global civil society, via the ways of protection and empowering, in order to guarantee the freedom and security of mankind, allowing every person to have the ability to safeguard one's own and others' rights and interests. On the international level, international organizations and committees with the purpose of explaining and promoting Human Security have been established in succession. Furthermore, the Trust Fund for Human Security has also been established in the United Nations. Such establishments have exhibited sizable contributions to the research of the concept of Human Security and practice of relevant plans. On the national level, Canada and Japan pursued the issue of Human Security and thus had the most effective and immense progress in promoting the freedom from fear and the freedom from want. Taiwan is located within a military sensitive area. In addition, globalization also contributes to threats on non-traditional security matters across national boundaries of several nations. Furthermore, Taiwan must also possess considerations about its internal safety on the economical, social, and cultural level. In order to improve the freedom, the security, and the welfare of Taiwanese civilians and to integrate Taiwan into the international community, Taiwan should undertake Human Security as its foundation for the combination of non-government organizations (NGO) and civil society forces, so as to actively participate in the international agenda, communicate with the international community, maintain its security and its, rights and interests, and shoulder the responsibility to safeguard the sustainable development of human beings. This thesis looks into the concept of Human Security via historical analysis. In the section regarding the concept of the development of security, this thesis explores into the traditional concepts of security, the development of the international situation during the post-Cold War era, and the appearance of non-traditional security issues. Consecutively, this thesis will introduce the " Human Development Report " of the United Nations Development Programme in 1994; it will also present the discussion of the theme of Human Security by international organizations and other great meetings of the world, Finally, this section closes with the issue on about the relationship between United Nations’ relevant organizations and Human Security, and a suggestion on United Nations’ role. The section of the concept of Human Security introduces the definition of Human Security given by scholars, international organizations, Canada, and Japan. The introduction of the index of Human Security and the explanation of the relationship between the concept of Human Security and the concept of human rights will follow. The following section—the practice of Human Security — introduces the ways and methods to practice Human Security, the concept of global governance and global civil society, Asian’s view on Human Security, the practice of Human Security on the international level, and the disputes of Human Security. In the section about the relationship of Taiwan and Human Security, this thesis puts forward all kinds of threats that Taiwan faces, quoting the relevant concepts of human development index, and recommends Taiwan’s present development situation. It also introduces foreign policy and practice achievement of Canada and Japan which are based on Human Security view, with the hope that those can inspire the promotion and the impetus of Human Security in Taiwan.

通訊監察區分為「犯罪通訊監察」及「情報通訊監察」二大種類，犯罪通訊監察須針對特定犯罪活動而為之偵查行為，而情報通訊監察則係針對外國勢力及其工作人員危害國家安全之行為而為國家預警情報作為。世界各民主先進國家在將通訊監察法治化及透過實際案例之修正後，逐步建立起類似之通訊監察立法通則，如比例原則、令狀原則監察、透明化、保護隱私權益、重罪原則、特定性、補充性原則等，幾已成為犯罪通訊監察法治不可違逆之普世價值； 然在情報通訊監察部分，各國則因歷史背景之不同，其情報通訊監察法治發展是不一而足，其法律保留、授權密度、證據能力、救濟及監督方式皆大相逕庭。 我國情報通訊監察規範於民國88年與犯罪通訊監察一併規範於「通訊保障及監察法」中，條文規範略嫌簡略，依據民國100年修正之國家情報工作法，立法政策將朝向情報通訊監察單獨立法邁進。 為探討我國情報通訊監察制度之現存問題，本文研究分析美國「外國情報通訊監察法（The Foreign Intelligence Surveillance Act of 1978,FISA）」及德國「G10法（Gesetz zur Beschränkung des Brief-, Post- und Fernmeldegeheimnisses,Gesetz zu Artikel 10 Grundgesetz – G10）」之情報通訊監察法治，與我國現行規範加以比較，並對未來設立專法提出建議。 / Electronic surveillance can be divided into criminal surveillance and intelligence surveillance. Different from the intelligence surveillance, criminal surveillance should be solely engaged in for specific criminal law enforcement purposes. Intelligence surveillance is directed at the acquisition of the contents of communications transmitted by means of communications used between or among foreign powers for the purpose of national security. Through the electronic surveillance legalization process of the advanced democracy countries, we can summarize a few principles such as the principle of proportionality, warrant, privacy, felony, particularity and complementarity which have became the universal value of the criminal surveillance. Nevertheless, the development of the intelligence surveillance in each country is by no means an isolated case because of the different background. They are different from law reservation, the intensity of judicial review, admissibility and judicial remedy, etc. In 1999, the rules of intelligence surveillance were regulated in Communication Protection and Monitoring Law with criminal surveillance, and the regulations of the intelligence surveillance are sort of incomplete. According to the amendment of the National Intelligence Services Law of 2011, the independent legislation of intelligence surveillance is imperative in future. In order to solve the problems of intelligence surveillance in Taiwan, the thesis introduced and compared the “The Foreign Intelligence Surveillance (FISA)” in the U.S.A, and the “Gesetz zur Beschränkung des Brief-, Post- und Fernmeldegeheimnisses,Gesetz zu Artikel 10 Grundgesetz (G10)”in Germany with the Communication Protection and Monitoring Law in Taiwan. Hopefully the thesis could provide the directions of the independent legislation of intelligence surveillance in future.

The paper deals with the use of unmanned aircraft of the American national security policy. It examines the history of unmanned aviation, its military use, and cost- efficiency. It then examines the main obstacles and problems with their use in national security that this technology meets and will meet in the future after a higher level of autonomy is developed. These problems involve legal issues, international and domestic American law, the issue of civilian casualties, the role of the media, and public opinion. The final chapter focuses on the problems of technical, strategic and operational issues. In this section the research paper comes to the first conclusion which claims that the introduction of more autonomous systems to war will radically change its structure and, consequently, standard procedures and strategies. Case studies are included to illustrate how successful the drone strategy is applied in the five countries where the United States leads a war on terror. The research using the theory of the revolution in military affairs concludes that these UAVs pose the greatest challenge in history and it goes well beyond military matters. UAVs in national security affect the understanding of the basic principles of war in relation to the concepts of warrior ethos and just war.

This study explores the foundations of US counterinsurgency policy and doctrine in order to better understand the main historical influences on that policy and doctrine and how those influences have informed the current US approach to counterinsurgency. The results of this study indicate the US experience in counterinsurgency during the Greek Civil War and the Huk Rebellion in the Philippines had a significant influence on the development of US counterinsurgency policy and doctrine following World War II through the Kennedy presidency. In addition, despite a major diversion from the lessons of Greece and the Philippines during the Vietnam War, the lessons were re-institutionalized in US counterinsurgency policy and doctrine following the war and continue to have significant influence today, though in a highly sanitized and, therefore, misleading form. As a result, a major disconnect has developed between the “rhetoric and reality” of US counterinsurgency policy. This disconnect has resulted from the fact that many references that provide a more complete and accurate picture of the actual policies and actions taken to successfully defeat the insurgencies have remained out of the reach of non-government researchers and the general public. Accordingly, many subsequent studies of counterinsurgency overlook, or only provide a cursory treatment of, aspects that may have had a critical impact on the success of past US counterinsurgency operations. One such aspect is the role of US direct intervention in the internal affairs of a supported country. Another is the role of covert action operations in support of counterinsurgency operations. As a result, the counterinsurgency policies and doctrines that have been developed over the years are largely based on false assumptions, a flawed understanding of the facts, and a misunderstanding of the contexts concerning the cases because of misleading, or at least seriously incomplete, portrayals of the counterinsurgency operations.

The following dissertation develops a theoretical framework for guiding the strategy of democratic states in successfully countering the hostilities of nationalistic substate terrorist organizations (NSTOs), and effectively manipulating the terrorist group’s (and its supporting elements’) decision-making calculus. In particular, the theory of strategic coercion has been chosen as a basis for formulating this framework, based upon: 1) the invaluable guidance it offers in dynamically drawing upon all instruments of national power—economic, diplomatic, military, etc.—to accomplish politico-strategic objectives; and 2) the unique insights it provides into making strategic moves aimed at influencing the choices taken by an adversary. However, strategic coercion theory as it currently stands is inadequate for applications against substate terrorist organizations. As a quintessential cornerstone for prescriptive policy in strategic studies, such a looming deficiency vis-à-vis one the most important security threats of the modern age is unacceptable. The new theoretical framework established in this dissertation—entitled the Balance Theory of strategic coercion—addresses this deficiency. The Balance Theory stresses that three key coercive elements of strategic coercion are fundamentally important for successfully ending the hostilities posed by NSTOs, being: A) Isolation of external/international support; B) Denial; and C) Isolation of popular support. It posits that these three aspects of strategic coercion serve as the sine qua non for success in countering an NSTO’s campaign of violence and effectively manipulating its decision-making process. Implementation of these three elements, moreover, must be pursued in tandem, taking care so as not to sacrifice one aspect for the other. The Balance Theory is tested through the employment of case-study analysis. In pursuing this end, both cross-case and within-case analyses are performed, accompanied by the utilization of the methods of focused, structured comparison. The cases examined are those of: 1) The United Kingdom versus Republican NSTOs (1969-2007); and 2) Israel versus Palestinian NSTOs (1967-present). The dissertation concludes with an examination of how the Balance Theory may provide insights for the formulation of counter-terrorism strategy against Al Qaeda in the current "War on Terror".

Indiana University-Purdue University Indianapolis (IUPUI) / Many authors, critics, and policy makers question the presence of a unified grand strategy with which the United States has striven toward in recent years. This is a topic worthy of pursuit since such a strategy is responsible for identifying how this nation intends to accomplish its goals. This thesis defines what, if any, grand strategy the United States is currently pursuing. It observes several prominent theories of grand strategy, from both the realist and liberal perspectives. This analysis is set in context of historical grand strategy decisions since World War II and uses the framework of Taiwan as the case study. The thesis then compares the three theories, Selective Engagement, Offshore Balancing, and the Liberal Milieu and their recommendations to real-world activities of the United States with a focus primarily on military deployments and national objectives. The study reveals that of the three in question, the Liberal Milieu grand strategy is the only one that is supported by ongoing deployments in the East Asia region as well as by the national rhetoric which define our policy objectives.

My research provides a historical and archaeological context for this thesis, in which I argue the JB-2 missile is historically significant as a unique example of the rapid duplication of enemy technology for both physical and psychological retaliation, as a crucial link in the chain of development for America’s cruise missile program, and for its role in early Cold War deterrence. Jet Bomb model number 2 (JB-2), America’s first operationally successful, mass produced cruise missile, developed as a direct copy of the German V-1, with slight variation in manufacture due to differences between German and American components, machinery and tooling. Continuing modifications of the JB-2 during its service life led to improvements in performance, control, and accuracy. From 1944 to 1953, the JB-2 transitioned from a weapon quickly prepared for wartime deployment to an essential test vehicle for the United States Army, Air Force and Navy while supporting the U.S. policy of containment during the early Cold War.