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  • About
  • The Global ETD Search service is a free service for researchers to find electronic theses and dissertations. This service is provided by the Networked Digital Library of Theses and Dissertations.
    Our metadata is collected from universities around the world. If you manage a university/consortium/country archive and want to be added, details can be found on the NDLTD website.
201

公司治理與盈餘的預測及發布對投資人的影響 / The impact of corporate governance and announcement of earnings forecasts on investors

蘇育真 Unknown Date (has links)
本文以事件研究法探討在公司治理程度不同的公司發布盈餘預測時, 不同類型的投資人在事件窗期中所反映的投資行為。首先以獨立董事與監 察人佔董監席次比例、董監事持股比例、大股東持股比例、經理人持股比 例、機構投資人持股比例、盈餘股份比以及董事長是否兼任總經理作為判 別公司治理程度的指標。再以公司發布盈餘預測的時點做區別,分別以當 年度首度預測是否由公司本身發布,與之後調高以及調低預測做為事件日。 實證結果顯示,當公司治理佳者發布盈餘預測時,外資會出現較多的買超 行為且獲得較高的異常報酬,散戶則持相反動作;而公司治理差者發布盈 餘預測時,散戶的買賣超變化量一般而言會較法人大,出現短期進出的情 形較多,且外資在其調高盈餘預測時,也不會馬上進行買進。整體而言, 外資在公司發布盈餘預測時所做出的交易行為,大致上與公司的治理程度 有正向關係,散戶則大多報持短線進出的態度。 / This study examines how different types of investors behave when entities with different corporate governances announce earnings forecasts. Using seven corporate governance indicators to categorize all of the samples and analyzing how the abnormal return, the results suggests foreign institutional investors are gaining more abnormal return by buying more stocks after earnings announcements of the entities with better corporate governance, and would not interact right after earnings announcements of the entities with worse corporate governance, when the individual investors are going the opposite way to the foreign institutional investors.
202

睡眠脆弱特質對認知激發狀態下的睡眠中訊息處理之影響 / Effects of stress-related vulnerability to sleep disturbances on information processing during sleep

林晏瑄, Lin, Yen Hsuan Unknown Date (has links)
研究目的 失眠的過度激發假說是目前最廣為接受的失眠病因之一,失眠者通常可觀察到具有身心過度激發的狀態,其中認知神經過度激發假說更由中樞神經的角度探討失眠者的過度激發現象,且已有許多證據支持此觀點。然而過度激發因素在失眠病程上的影響仍不明確,不論在前置因子或是持續因子的層面,激發因素皆經常被提及與討論。本研究以未失眠但具有高睡眠脆弱特質之族群作為研究對象,企圖模擬失眠者在失眠初發之前的狀態,另加入睡前及早晨的自主神經系統與主觀激發狀態之測量,比較其與低睡眠脆弱特質組在有無壓力誘發狀態下,兩組的睡眠中訊息處理程度、睡前及早晨的自主神經系統激發程度與主觀激發狀態,藉以了解(1)壓力是否會引發個體進入較高的主、客觀激發狀態;(2)睡眠脆弱特質在不同的激發程度下,是否會對於個體的睡前、睡眠中及早晨的激發程度造成影響,以初步推論激發狀態因素在失眠病程中所扮演之角色。 方法 以壓力下失眠反應量表(Ford Insomnia Response to Stress Test, FIRST)區分出高睡眠脆弱特質組(HV)13位(6男、7女)、低睡眠脆弱特質組(LV)14位(6男、8女),年齡為19-32歲之健康成人。每位受試者均需在睡眠實驗室進行3個夜晚之夜間睡眠記錄,包含第一晚的PSG測量以排除個案有其他睡眠疾患,並讓受試者習慣實驗環境;第二晚及第三晚則交互平衡操弄基礎情境或壓力情境,在壓力情境下,受試者被告知將進行即席演講,需在睡前抽出演講題目,並於隔天早晨喚醒後10分鐘內發表一篇內容充實、呼應主題之演說,隨後測量心跳變異率(heart rate variability,HRV)、平均心跳間距(r-r interval,RRI)、主觀身心激發狀態(Pre sleep arousal scale,PSAS)等主客觀激發程度,入睡後進行整夜的ERP(事件相關電位[Event-related potential,ERP])測量,誘發ERPs之實驗流程以oddball典範為主,並於早晨起床後再次進行HRV、RRI及PSAS之測量。 結果 以2(組別)x 2(情境)之混和設計二因子變異數分析比較各組在不同情境下的主客觀激發程度指標是否有所不同。結果顯示壓力確實能引發受試者進入較高的主客觀激發狀態,包含睡前及早晨有較快的平均心跳速率、較高的主觀身心激發程度,而在NREM睡眠中可發現HV在有壓力的情境下,對外界的訊息處理程度顯著較LV組增加,包含較快的N1與較慢的N350出現,但HV在壓力下亦有較快的P2與較強的P900,顯示對外界訊息的抑制功能上升,且隨著睡眠更深,進入慢波睡眠時,P2及P900亦顯著較LV強,表現出更多的抑制外界訊息能力。 結論 本研究探討睡眠脆弱特質在不同激發狀態下對於睡眠的影響,結果顯示壓力能引發個體較高的激發狀態,然而在未失眠族群中,高睡眠脆弱特質對於認知激發狀態下的睡眠中訊息處理程度雖有提高,但可發現高睡眠脆弱特質組亦有較高的抑制外界訊息能力,而不致於使得激發狀態過度影響其睡眠,此結果部分支持失眠的認知神經過度激發假說,過度激發因素可能在持續因子的部分影響性較大,造成個體產生對睡眠的抱怨。另一方面,本研究結果亦彰顯失眠的高危險群的及早介入預防之重要性。 / Introduction: Conditioned hyperarousal has been theorized to be a major etiological factor in chronic insomnia patients. It has been suggested that insomniacs showed more arousal than non-insomniacs in many psychological and physiological measures, including enhanced information processing during sleep as measured by NREM ERPs. However, the role of hyperarousal on the course of development of insomnia remained unclear, it has been considered as a predisposing trait and/or perpetuating factor in the cause of insomnia. The present study compared arousal levels around sleep onset, during sleep and in the morning between non-insomniac individuals with low and high vulnerability to stress-related sleep disturbance, as high vulnerable individuals were proposed to be predisposed to chronic insomnia. The objectives of the study are therefore to investigate: 1) the effect of an acute stressor on arousal level prior, after, and during sleep, and 2) the differences in stress reactivity between individual with high and low vulnerability to stress-related sleep disturbances. Method: Fourteen healthy individuals scoring low (LV) and thirteen healthy individuals scoring high (HV) on the Ford Insomnia Response to Stress Test (FIRST) were studied. All subjects had to sleep in the lab for three nights: a screening/ adaptation night, then a baseline night and a stress night. The sequences of the later two nights were counterbalanced across subjects. During the stress night, subjects were informed that they would be required to give a speech immediately after waking up. Heart rate variability (HRV), r-r interval (RRI) of EKG and subjective arousal level (Pre sleep arousal scale, [PSAS]) was accessed before lights off and in the morning. Then sleep ERP was recorded during the night. An odd-ball paradigm was conducted to evoke ERPs throughout the night. Result: Mixed two-way ANOVAs were used to compare the differences between vulnerabilities and conditions. Both HV ans LV showed higher subjective arousal level and smaller RRI under the stress condition than the baseline condition. During NREM sleep, HV showed increased information processing under stress condition than LV as shown by faster N1, slower N350. Also, HV showed increased inhibition under stress condition than LV, with faster P2 and higher P900. Stronger P2 and P900 were also observed in HV when reached slow-wave sleep stage, comparing to LV. Conclusion: Both groups showed more arousal under stress condition than baseline condition, indicating an acute stress can lead to a higher arousal level. Moreover, high vulnerable individuals showed increased information processing during NREM sleep than low vulnerable individuals, but also showed more inhibition to prevent sleep from being disturbed by external stimulus. The results suggest that increased information processing in reacting to stress may be a predisposing trait for sleep disturbances. However, sleep may be protected by a compensatory inhibitory process in those who have not developed a long-term insomnia.
203

建商存活預警模型建立---以影響力探討事件之研究 / The Study on Building Construction Company Survival Warning Modeling-the Influence Event Analysis

簡沛溱, Pei Chen Chien Unknown Date (has links)
本研究主要在建立1996-2008年間建商的存活預警模型,探討眾多危機事件中對於建商存活的影響力分析。研究所稱建商包括「建設公司」以及有從事建設業的相關公司。在台灣地區位屬火車頭角色的建設業具有舉足輕重的影響力,但其營運的財務槓桿較其他產業高,營運狀況易受景氣波動的影響,因此在事件的產生時對於投資者、銀行的應變處理便顯得相對重要。 危機事件所指除了證管會、台灣經濟新報資料庫的危機認定外,另加入財務之外的事件研究並加以定義。存活預警模型的建立是先以各種事件的相關性分析以了解各種事件的顯著性,並且量化分類後的影響事件,再進行羅吉特分析與存活分析的比對,選擇較適模型與影響力較大的危機事件進行實證分析。研究實證結果如下: 一 危機事件越多,建商經營越不穩定,存亡事件產生機率越高;影響公司存活的共通因子對於公司危機產生的共同預警變數有一定程度上的共通性,且都具有顯著性。 二 本研究將危機事件分類為財務面、監理面、經營面,存亡事件選定有終止上市、全額交割股、掏空三種。經實證後得知,財務面之外的預警變數亦能提供投資人及銀行產業了解公司經營的穩定度。在眾多預警變數中,又以重整、紓困跳票違約、董監事改選對於終止上市影響較大;對全額交割股的影響則以董監事改選、警示股、景氣因素以及利益輸送影響較大;對掏空的影響則以重整、警示股、財務結構較具顯著性。 三 存活期間與存活機率相關性比較中,以景氣預警變數而言,若產生全額交割事件,則產生存亡事件的機率非常高,公司得以存活期間較短。以重整預警變數而言,公司重整後,產生存亡事件的機率非常高,也就是說公司得以存活的期間較其他預警變數短。 四 景氣循環對於建商經營有非常大的影響,不景氣時產生具顯著性的危機事件,將會在較短期間後產生存亡事件。 / The goal of our study is establishing the survival model in the building construction companies during 1996-2008. The real estate developers in this study included “building construction companies” and the “property stock companies” which operate building construction businesses. Building construction companies are common known as a pivotal role in the power of influence by the general public, but the financial leverage is higher than other industries. Operating condition of construction companies is effected by the real estate cycle; in hence it is relative importance of the investers, banks, which the crisis events occurred. The crisis events in this study are not only the definition of Taiwan Stock Exchange and Taiwan Economic Journal Data Bank but also the events besides financial side. The study of survival model, in the beginning, is to analyze the correlation of crisis events to understand the significance of events, quantify the classified of the entire crisis event, and then to compare the results between the Logistic Analysis and the Survival Analysis. Finally, choose the appropriate model and the more influence crisis events to do the empirical analysis. The empirical analysis results of our study are as follows: 1. The more the crisis events occurred, the more the probability of failure events will occur. 2. Our study classified the crisis events into three different species, financial side, supervision side, business side. We choose company delisting, full delivery stock company, and company emptied as the failure events. 3. Compare the correlation of survival period with survival probability. In terms of company reorganized variable, for example, after reorganizing the building construction company, the probability of failure events are getting higher, and the survival duration get shorter than other crisis events. 4. The real estate cycle impact the building construction companies a lot. If significant crisis events occurred during downturn of the real estate cycle, the failure events will be generated in such a short time.
204

台灣上市上櫃公司發行可轉換債券之存活分析研究 / Survival analysis for convertible bonds of listed companies in Taiwan

戴誠蔚 Unknown Date (has links)
可轉換公司債為複合式證券,除了具有債券性質外,並給予持有者於債券流通期間內行使轉換為股票之權利。以存活分析方法探討可轉債之研究尚屬少見,本論文乃以台灣上市櫃公司發行之5年期可轉債為研究資料,先整理出與公司經營有關的變數,再分別以Cox模式與再發事件之兩種邊際模型(marginal model):A-G (Anderson-Gill) 模式、PWP-TT (Prentice-Williams-Petersen)模式為研究分析方法,探討可轉債之流通時間及大量交易時間的問題。本論文並將可轉債分類為債券類型、混合類型和權益類型,且由於不同類型可轉債之流通時間有所差異,因此以其為分層條件加入模式中進行分析。研究結果發現,資產總額、總負債率、TCRI評等及董監持股率等變數,具有顯著解釋可轉債流通時間的能力,可見公司財務負債狀況與穩定性與流通期間有關;而最高差價(當月最高股價與轉換價之相對差價)、長期負債率、總負債率及股價報酬率等變數,則可顯著解釋大量交易的發生時間,表示公司財務負債狀況與股價利潤差與大量交易發生之快慢有關,其中資產總額、最高差價、TCRI評等及股價報酬率之係數均顯著為正,長期負債率、總負債率及董監持股率之係數則顯著為負。由於平均表現之存活曲線與經驗存活曲線相當接近,以Kolmogorov-Smirnov檢定多無顯著差異,顯示這些模式有不錯的配適能力;至於對個別公司估計出之存活曲線,則或有與經驗存活曲線相差較多的現象,顯示所建立的模式可對個別公司提供可轉債即將結束流通或發生大量交易之預警。 / Convertible bonds are hybrid securities that possess the properties of bonds and the right to convert bonds into shocks. Few articles employed survival analysis to analyze the characteristics of convertible bonds. To investigate the effects of the issuer’s financial information to the duration of circulation and the timing of the massive trading about convertible bonds, Taiwan’s 5-year convertible bonds were collected, and three methods of survival analysis were employed:Cox model、A-G (Anderson-Gill) model and PWP-TT(Prentice-Williams-Petersen) model. We classified convertible bonds as debt-like, equity-like, and hedge-like, and then make the classification as a stratification condition later. In summary, total Assets, total debt ratio, TCRI, and the proportion of holding share in supervisors and directors are significant variables on circulation period of convertible bonds. Apparently, the extent of debt and financial stability of issuers have significant effects on circulation period; the difference between stock price and conversion price, long-term debt ratio, total debt ratio and stock return rate contribute significantly on the timing of massive trading of convertible bonds. While the extent of debt and the return of stock hasten the hazard of the timing of massive trading. Furthermore, there are no significant differences between the survival curves evaluated at the average performance levels and the corresponding empirical survival curves, according to the results of Kolmogorov-Smirnov test. However, the differences between individual survival probabilities and overall empirical survival probabilities might be large, which indicates that the models incorporate companies’ performance overtime may provide a warning message for the termination of circulation or the timing of massive trading for a particular convertible bond.
205

不當督導行為與部屬後果之關係—負面情緒的中介效果 / The relationship of abusive supervision and subordinate consequences—the mediation effect of negative emotion

張真瑜 Unknown Date (has links)
目前對於不當督導與部屬後果之關係的心理機制研究,大部分侷限於組織正義的範疇裡,本研究根據情感事件理論,提出部屬之負面情緒在不當督導與部屬反應間的中介角色,不當督導藉由引發部屬的負面情緒,影響其工作滿意、情緒耗竭及離職意圖;本研究進一步探討個人的傳統性、認知再評估情緒調控策略在部屬不當督導知覺和負面情緒之關係的調節效果,此外,研究並假設個人壓抑式與認知再評估情緒調控,會調節部屬負面情感與工作滿意、離職意圖及情緒耗竭的關係。本研究採便利取樣,共收集218筆有直屬主管之在職員工資料,經階層迴歸分析發現,一,憤怒情緒具有中介效果:知覺不當督導關係到部屬憤怒情緒的升高,進而工作滿意低落、情緒耗竭嚴重及離職意圖增加;二,認知再評估能緩衝知覺不當督導與害怕情緒的關係;三,認知再評估高的部屬,其害怕情緒和工作滿意的相關較弱。本研究有助於管理者體認工作情緒在不當督導對部屬影響的重要性,並指出認知再評估情緒調控策略,對於減緩員工負面情緒及負面後果的助益。最後,針對研究限制、未來研究方向提出說明與建議。 / Current examinations of the psychological mechanism of abusive supervision and subordinate consequences focus mostly on organizational justice. According to Affective Event Theory, the present study proposed that subordinates’ negative emotions may mediate the relationship between abusive supervision and subordinate job satisfaction, emotion exhaustion, and intention to leave. Further, the study investigated the moderating effect of subordinates’ traditionality and two emotion regulation strategies, cognitive reappraisal and expressive inhibition, in the above relationships. Hierarchical regression analyses on data collected from a sample of 218 full-time employees in Taiwan were used to test the proposed hypotheses. Results show that anger mediated the positive relationship between abusive supervision and employee outcomes such that abusive supervision is positively correlated with subordinates’ anger, which further leads to lower job satisfaction, higher emotion exhaustion and intention to leave. Second, cognitive reappraisal moderated the relationship between abusive supervision and subordinates’ fear as well as the relationship between subordinates’ fear and job satisfaction. Those findings indicated the importance of subordinates’ emotions and the buffering effect of cognitive reappraisal in the relationship between abusive supervision and subordinate consequences. Based on the results of the study, limitations, practional implications and suggestions for future research are discussed.
206

從事件關聯電位探討非意識性情緒調控的時間歷程與效果 / Investigating the temporal dynamics of non-conscious emotion regulation processing and effects using event-related potentials

楊宗翰, Yang, Tsung Han Unknown Date (has links)
大部分情緒調控研究,著重於意圖性(deliberate)調控策略的使用與效果比較(如認知再評估與壓抑)。Bargh, Lee-Chai, Barndollar, Gollwitzer, & Trötschel (2001)透過一系列實驗發現,高階的行為目標,即便在人類覺知外激發,亦能促發人們非意識地產生該目標,並有相關的追求行為。在這樣的理論與實證支持下,Mauss, Cook, & Gross (2007)驗證了情緒調控能以非意識行為進行。Williams, Bargh, Nocera, & Gray (2009)的研究更發現不管是意識或是非意識性地進行情緒調控,都能有效降低心跳改變率。由於目前仍缺乏許多非意識性情緒調控的效果與歷程證據,本研究目的即在藉由事件關聯電位,探討非意識性情緒調控的效果與時間歷程。實驗一透過事件關聯電位,驗證情緒調控能在非意識情況下發生,並發現非意識性壓抑能發生在情緒反應剛產生的300至700毫秒內。實驗二則加入了意識性重新評估與壓抑組參與者,與非意識性重新評估與壓抑組作比較。結果顯示,對參與者而言,(1) 正向情緒為一較容易調控的情緒類別。(2) 使用重新評估調控情緒的效果,仍顯著優於使用壓抑策略。(3) 非意識性情緒調控的結果,也比意識性調控情緒來得較佳。這樣的實驗結果支持了非意識情緒調控的可行性與優點。 / Studies of emotion regulations mostly focused on deliberate control strategies such as cognitive reappraisal and suppression. Bargh and his colleagues conducted a series of experiments and found higher behavioral goals could be primed non-consciously, i.e. outside human awareness (Bargh et al., 2001). Under these assumptions, Mauss, Cook and Gross (2007) verified how emotion regulations be formed through non-conscious behaviors. Williams, Bargh, Nocera, and Gray (2009) also found both conscious and non-conscious reappraisals deduced heart-rate changes. However, it is lack of studies investigating the effects and temporal dynamics of non-conscious emotion regulation. The purpose of this research is to analyze the temporal dynamics and effects of non-conscious emotion regulation processing using event-related potentials. In the first experiment, we verified emotion regulation could be operated under non-conscious way. Also we found non-conscious suppressed goals would be primed and regulated at the beginning of emotional response, i.e., in 300-700ms after the onset of emotion pictures. In the second experiment, we added conscious reappraisal and suppression condition for comparing the non-conscious and conscious regulated effects and time processes. The results showed (1) It was easy for participants to regulate positive emotion. (2) The emotion regulation effect was better with reappraisal strategy than with suppression. (3) Non-conscious emotion regulation would result in better regulated outcomes than conscious emotion regulation. These results supported the practicability and advantages of non-conscious emotion regulation.
207

證券交易所得稅對我國股市之影響 / The impact of security transaction income taxes on the stock market

吳函霓 Unknown Date (has links)
為了落實賦稅公平、實現社會正義,財政部推出證券交易所得課稅方案,希望能達到此目標。為探討資本市場對證券交易所得課稅方案演變的預期,本論文利用事件研究法探討在證券交易所得稅復徵消息公布至通過三讀立法期間之相關事件,對上、市櫃公司之股票累積異常報酬率之影響,並採用迴歸模型探討該股票累積異常報酬率與公司特性之關聯性。 本論文之研究結果發現: 1.在證券交易所得稅相關消息公布之事件日,上市櫃公司均產生顯著之股票累積異常報酬率。 2.課徵證券交易所得稅相關消息公布之事件期間,股票累積異常報酬率與公司特性關聯性之迴歸結果顯示:公司規模較大之公司,其公司股票累積異常報酬率較高;負債比率較高、公司成長性較高之公司,其公司股票累積異常報酬率較低。 / In order to implement the principle of fair taxation, Ministry of Finance, R.O.C. address that gains from securities transactions shall be subject to income tax. The amendment is expected to have impacts on stock market returns of all companies. Using event study methods, this study examines the stock market reactions to the announcements of the legislature policy and explores the relation between the stock cumulative abnormal returns (CAR) of the amendment and firm characteristics. This study finds that the stock market reacts negatively (positively) when the news of the amendment are released (revised). The regression results indicate that CARs are negatively related with debt ratios and corporate growth; positively related with corporate size.
208

The Impact of IEA Reports on Oil-Related Markets

陳俊源, Chen, Jiun-Yuan Unknown Date (has links)
國際能源機構(IEA)每個月的石油報告已經變成預測世界石油供給與需求一個很重要的資源。因此,我們蒐集從1990年10月到2005年12月中國際能源機構所發佈的179次宣告,利用事件研究法來衡量國際能源機構對石油相關市場的影響性。 實證結果顯示,國際能源機構的石油報告的確對石油相關市場傳達重要的資訊;而國際能源機構報告的影響效果似乎會隨著國家的不同而有所不同;在當中,石油的生產和消費量多寡、石油的密集度和油價中稅占的比例都扮演重要的角色;此外,在國際能源機構的報告中,關於預測石油需求變化這方面似乎特別被大家所重視。 / This study examines the impact of International Energy Agency's Oil Market Reports on oil-related prices. The IEA reports, published monthly in Paris, have become the primary source of world oil supply and demand forecasts. We collect 179 announcements that released by IEA over the period October 1990 to December 2005. We analyze the effects of these reports on three oil-related markets, IPE Brent Crude futures, oil industry indices and stock prices of oil companies in six countries. Moreover, we separate the effects of IEA’s forecast changes on oil supply from non-OPEC countries and oil demand from North America and China in IEA’s report. The results confirm that IEA’s reports carry important information source for oil-related markets because more than one half of our sample companies have abnormal returns around the announcement date of IEA’s reports, and we explore these prices respond negatively to the release of IEA’s reports. We also find that the actively traded IPE Brent Crude futures contracts are affected by IEA’s reports, particularly for the change of demand in North America. Forecast changes in IEA’s reports regarding supply in non-OPEC countries, demand in North America and China show that most countries are affected by the changes in these reports. The evidences also show that British and Norwegian oil stock markets react more strongly to the change of oil demand in North America and China. Moreover, we find that participants in the oil market put more emphasis on demand changes reported by IEA, especially for China demand. And we provides empirical evidence that these companies are concerned more about the related releases of decreased demand in North America and increased demand in China. Finally, cross-sectional analysis of cumulative abnormal returns suggests that the reaction of American and Norwegian companies to IEA’s announcements is stronger than other countries, and the change of demand in North America and China and the size variable for individual company contribute to the changes of abnormal returns around IEA’s reports.
209

私募宣告之資訊內涵

陸潤生 Unknown Date (has links)
本研究探討私募宣告事件之資訊內涵,以瞭解私募宣告事件對公司整體價值所造成之影響,進而探討影響私募宣告效果的可能因素,並比較具備投資機會組與不具備投資機會組之累積平均異常報酬。 實證結果發現以股東大會日為宣告日之私募股權宣告具有資訊內涵,而且宣告效果提早反應。影響私募宣告後累積異常報酬之因素包括價格壓力、投資機會、發行價格及資訊不對稱程度。股票流動性高、股價波動程度低、具備投資機會、發行價格高或資訊不對稱程度高時,私募宣告後之累積平均異常報酬會較高。在事件日前,無投資機會組比具備投資機會組有較高之累積平均異常報酬;在事件日之後,具投資機會組比無投資機會組有較高之累積平均異常報酬。 / This study examines the information content of private placement announcement to unveil its impact on firm value, explores the factors affecting the effect of private placement announcement, and compares the market performance of firms with investment opportunities and those without investment opportunities. The results indicate that the information content of private placement announcement exists with early information leakage. Firms with higher stock liquidity, lower stock price variation, more investment opportunity, higher subscribed price or higher degree of information asymmetry will have higher cumulative average abnormal returns after the announcement. The cumulative average abnormal returns of companies without investment opportunity are higher than those with investment opportunity before the announcement date.
210

東南亞海上恐怖主義活動 / Maritime Terrorism Activities in Southeast Asia

曹育寧, Tsao, Yu-Ning Unknown Date (has links)
東南亞海域的海洋運輸在亞太地區經濟成長上扮演相當重要的角色。一旦海上環境遭受猛烈恐怖襲擊,全球的船運和貿易活動立即會受到嚴重的影響。尤其是麻六甲海峽的特殊地理環境,讓恐怖份子很容易在良好策劃下,完成海上恐怖攻擊活動。後續該地區的保險金額將會高得驚人,造成整個東南亞地區的海運、亞洲地區的貿易、全球經濟的成長都會受到波及。這也正是為何執恐怖世界牛耳的「蓋達」組織正在積極組建「海軍」,對海上恐怖攻擊展現高度興趣的主要原因。近幾年來東南亞海盜有漸趨暴力的傾向,加上「蓋達」組織的阿富汗基地受創,部分幹部落腳於東南亞,更加深人們對於手段殘暴的海盜與海上恐怖主義的聯想。「蓋達」業已投注許多心力發展海上攻擊能力,如果再與東南亞恐怖組織分享研究成果的話,情況勢必更加棘手。 本文特別針對印尼、馬來西亞、新加坡、菲律賓與泰國等五個國家作分析,檢視各國所發生的海上暴力事件以及處理的方式,並且研究各國主政者對於恐怖主義的態度。此外,對於與海上恐怖主義有關聯的東南亞恐怖組織包括「伊斯蘭教祈禱團」、「阿布薩耶夫」、「摩洛伊斯蘭解放陣線」與「摩洛民族解放陣線」等,分析其有無跨界發展的能量與發動海上恐怖攻擊的能力。文中也試著從「東協」及其相關組織以及「聯合國」、「國際海事局」、「國際海事組織」、「亞太經濟合作會議」等全球性的機構分析其面對新興海上恐怖主義活動的回應,進而整理出促進東南亞各國在海上安全維護上更進一步合作的措施。最後針對台灣的海上反恐作一檢視,希望可以從全球海上反恐的努力獲取經驗,與全球反恐接軌,提升國家海上安全的保障。 關鍵字:海上恐怖主義活動、「蓋達」組織、麻六甲海峽、九一一事件、東南亞、海盜。

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