企業股東基於法律與契約對於所投資之公司，通常享有股利分配權、新股優先認購權、剩餘財產分配權、股東投票權等基本權利，本文以股東權利基礎來重新詮釋Ohlson模式與Easton模式。基於股東權利基礎，Ohlson模式（價格模式）可重新表示為盈餘、帳面價值、投票權價值之線性模式；Easton模式（報酬模式）可重新表示為盈餘水準、盈餘變動、投票權價值變動之線性模式。本文依上述理論基礎發展相關之研究假說，為彌補單用當期盈餘資訊之不足本文於實證模式中將再加入未來盈餘變數，並以臺灣市場之資料來驗證各項假說。首先，本文實證價格模式與報酬模式之各項變數，對於股價及報酬是否具有解釋力。其次，本文實證當經濟環境不同時，上述實證結果是否會受到影響。 價格模式之實證結果指出：（1）各項價格變數對於股價皆具有顯著的正向解釋力。（2）當公司盈餘為負數或者盈餘持續性低時，當期盈餘對於股價的解釋力會降低。（3）當產業前景較差時，當期盈餘、帳面價值等會計資訊較不被注意，故比較不會反應在股價；管理者可由公司獲取的私有利益也會較少，故投票權價值與股價之關聯也會較低。（4）當產業生命週期較短時，當期盈餘資訊較被注意，此與其較易取得與計算有關。（5）當總體經濟情況不同時，各項變數對股價的解釋力並無顯著差異，此現象可能與研究期間內總體經濟情況好壞的差異並不明顯所致。（6）當通貨膨脹率較高時，公司所傳達之會計資訊會有高估的現象，故當期盈餘與股價之關聯會較低。 報酬模式之實證結果指出：（1）各項報酬變數對於報酬皆具有顯著的正向解釋力。（2）當公司盈餘為負數或者盈餘持續性低時，盈餘水準對於報酬的解釋力會降低，盈餘變動對於報酬的解釋力則會提高。（3）當產業前景較差時，由於盈餘水準、未來盈餘價值指標等會計資訊較不被注意，故比較不會反應在股價報酬；管理者可獲取的私有利益也會減少，故其與股價之關聯會降低。（4）當產業生命週期不同時，各項變數對報酬的解釋力並無顯著差異。（5）當總體經濟情況較差時，盈餘變動的資訊性顯著較低，此現象應與總體經濟情況較差時盈餘通常為負數所致，投票權價值指標也有相同的現象。（6）當通貨膨脹率不同時，各項變數對報酬的解釋力並無顯著差異，此現象可能與研究期間內通貨膨脹率高低的差異並不明顯所致。 綜上所述，股東權利基礎評價模式之各項變數確實能解釋股價或報酬，而且在不同的經濟情境下，上述變數對股價或報酬之解釋力確實會有不同，因此未來從事股權價值或股價報酬評估時，研究者應再進行相關的情境分析。 目 錄 第一章 緒論 1 第一節 研究背景與動機 1 第二節 研究目的與方法 5 第三節 論文貢獻 7 第四節 論文架構 9 第二章 文獻探討 10 第一節 股利分配權價值之相關文獻 12 第二節 剩餘財產分配權價值之相關文獻 14 第三節 新股優先認購權價值之相關文獻 19 第四節 股東投票權價值之相關文獻 26 第五節 情境式分析研究法之相關文獻 31 第三章 研究方法 33 第一節 股東權利基礎評價模式之建構 34 第二節 研究假說與實證模式 38 第三節 變數定義 47 第四節 樣本與資料選取 55 第四章 實證結果分析 59 第一節 價格模式之實證結果 60 第二節 報酬模式之實證結果 63 第三節 價格模式之情境分析結果 66 第四節 報酬模式之情境分析結果 80 第五章 結論與建議 94 第一節 研究結論 95 第二節 研究建議 101 第三節 研究限制 102 參考文獻 103 / When investors buy stock, they acquire all common and specific rights granted by the laws and contracts. Shareholders usually have the right to receive dividends, the preemptive right, the right to claim the residuals assets, and the right to vote at shareholders’ meetings. The paper uses the base of shareholders’ rights to re-explain the empirical meanings of Ohlson model and Easton model. According to the base of shareholders’ rights, Ohlson model（price model）can be rewritten as the linear model of earnings, book valve, and voting right premium. In the same way, Easton model（return model）can be rewritten as the linear model of earnings level, earnings change, and voting right premium change. According to the theory base above, this paper develops related research hypotheses. Not only current earnings but also future earnings are included in empirical models, and I use Taiwanese data to test the hypotheses. First, the paper tests whether each variable in price model or return model can explain stock price or return. Second, the paper investigates whether the results mentioned above will be affected by different contexts. The empirical evidence of the price model can be summarized as follows. First, each price variable has significantly positive explanatory power with respect to stock price. Second, when earnings is negative or earnings persistence is low, the value-relevance of current earnings will decrease. Third, when industry prospect becomes worse, market pays little attention to current earnings and book value and manager gets less private benefits, thus the association between current earnings, book value, voting right premium and stock price is low. Fourth, when industry life cycle is shorter, more attention is paid to current earnings, which is related to availability of data. Fifth, when macroeconomic circumstance is different, the explanatory power of each variable is not significantly different, this phenomenon may be due to little significant difference among macroeconomic circumstance during research periods. Sixth, when inflation rate is high, accounting information signaled by firm is overstated, which reduces the association between current earnings and stock price. The empirical evidence of the return model can be summarized as follows. First, each return variable has significantly positive explanatory power with respect to stock return. Second, when earnings is negative or earnings persistence is low, the value-relevance of earnings level will decrease, while the value-relevance of earnings change will increase. Third, when industry prospect is not good, market pays little attention to earnings level and future earnings indicator and manager gets less private benefits, thus the association between earnings level, future earnings indicator, voting right premium indicator and stock return is low. Fourth, when industry life cycle is not the same, the explanatory power of each variable is not significantly different. Fifth, when macroeconomic circumstance becomes worse, the informativeness of earnings change is significantly low, this phenomenon may be due to positive correlation between macroeconomic circumstance and earnings. Voting right premium indicator also has the same phenomenon. Sixth, when inflation rate is different, the explanatory power of each variable is not significantly different, this phenomenon is likely due to little significant difference among inflation rate during research periods. In summary, the variables in shareholders’ rights-based valuation models can explain stock price or stock return. In the different contexts, the explanatory power of variables mentioned above with respected to stock price or stock return is significantly different. The results imply the importance of contextual analysis when researchers are engaged in the valuation of stock price or stock return.

我們認為，在網路教育的中的Amazon.com尚未成形之際，有關教育網站的任何分析與研究，其實就是嚐試對於一連串「什麼是教育網站？」的問題，給予較具體及系統性的回答；據此，本研究從整理「網路教育」的定義開始，歸納包括Michael G. Moore及Bill Gates等學者專家對網路教育的觀察及想法，推導出教育網站幾個可能的「想像空間 (構面)」[第2-1節]；並且，整合相關的「教育理念」、「網站經營邏輯」與「網路科技」到各構面中作為觀察 (或比較) 各網站差異的指標 [第2-3節]；此外，環顧實際的競爭環境，文中在構面要素的選擇上，也絕大部份以能夠直接從介面進行觀察為主要考量。最後，為了滿足網路經濟□「一夕數變」的動態需要，我們進一步推演構面間的邏輯關係、分析方法及觀察程序，使「構面」及「構面要素」更能輔助作為網站經營長、短期的決策依據 [第3章]。 研究發現，由歸納定義形成「構面」及「構面要素」的網站分析方法，可以系統性地整理出網站經營要素，協助經營者適度界定營運範疇 並妥善分配資源比重。以「教育網站」為例，本研究所採用的分析方法，可以有效幫助經營者脫離空泛的想像，更具體地將經營重心縮小到「結構」、「對話」、「社群」、「軌跡」四個構面及其相對應的構面要素上。 我們也發現，不僅「教育網站」四個「網路經營」構面間有嚴謹的演化邏輯 (Ch.2-3-5.3)，構面背後的「教育理論」更同時存在相同的邏輯基礎 (Ch.2-3-5.7 )。這使得本研究可據之以推論104人力網站為「教育網站」再合適不過的「定位型」聯盟 (Ch.3-1-2)；推論亞卓市形成「幽靈課程」及「幽靈學生」 的原因 (Ch.3-1-3)；並決定研究中的各變數關係如何構築一個完整的研究架構(Ch.3-3)。 根據上述邏輯基礎，我們另外發現，一個同時滿足「網路經營」、「網路科技」、「教育及學習理論」的「網路教學情境」設計 (Ch.2-3-5.6)，如何模擬出「真正的」教育網站風貌。同時，在此情境下的網路學習方式，也讓吾人有機會重新思考如何增進教育網站「忠誠度」：在「個人」先備知識與「社群」分類知識游走間摧化；一種有別於其它非教育性質網站的獨特作法 (Ch2-3-5.6；Ch.3-1-2)。 我們還發現，妥善設計一個觀察程序，可以組合本研究中的部份結果成為進行網站比較時的觀察標準；如此可以協助經營者在面對不同型式同樣標榜教育功能的各式「教育網站」時，有能力更深入也更完整探討其間的差異所在 (Ch3-4-1)。 我們更發現，由於「構面」及「構面要素」除了能夠動態組合、方便賦予權重指標，同時還能因應變動的競爭環境，靈活增刪構面要素而不影響決策系統；整個研究因此提供了「決策系統可程式化」的機會 (Ch3-2-1；Ch3-2-2；Ch3-3)。

本內容為手機社群平台介面設計創作論述。PostHere 是一個讓使用者在智慧型手機上分享和接收情境內容的社群平台。使用者根據所在的情境，產製出一則則多媒體數位故事，並利用全球定位系統（GPS) 與數位羅盤技術，將內容留在空間中，共同建立地點資料庫。其他使用者便可從不同地點的資料庫中讀取內容，並利用擴增實境、數位地圖或街景重新建構的情境觀看內容，有如在真實空間中覆蓋一層數位故事空間。平台使用了社群機制進行內容排序和篩選，並刺激使用者更踴躍分享內容。 本論述探討了關於情境內容、社群服務和使用者介面與經驗設計的文獻，並進行個案分析，作為介面設計之基礎。設計的過程中也咨詢了介面設計領域專業人員的意見。 PostHere的主要目標族群為21至35歲的社青，有四個主要功能。使用者可創作情境故事留在特定地理位置上、閱讀其他使用者在目前位置上留下的故事、搜尋其他地點的故事、以及與有興趣的使用者聯結。本社群平台將先鼓勵使用者分享微旅遊紀錄，作為內容範例。 / This paper presents the prototype design of PostHere, a mobile social networking platform that will enable users to share and receive context aware content through an application on the smartphone. Digital stories in multimedia forms created by the mass users in relation to their spatial and temporal context are “planted” and left on a location using Global Positional System (GPS) and compass technology. These stories are stored in a location database for other users to retrieve and view in recreated context through augmented reality, world map or street view, like over layering a digital space on top of the physical space. Social mechanisms are used to sort out and filter content, while motivating users to share content actively. Literature review on context aware content, social networking and user experience design, together with case study on current mobile social networking app act as the basis of the development. Professionals from the app development field were consulted throughout the course of the user interface and user experience design. The final prototype has four main functions, targeted at urban young adult ranging from the age of 21 to 35. User may create and leave stories on a geographical spot, explore stories at their current location, search for interesting stories shared by others and connect with users they are interested in. Micro- travel log is chosen as the main content to help build up content paradigm. The prototype received positive feedback from test participants in Taiwan and will be ready for development into an actual product.

本研究之目的在瞭解網路招募情境中，具預告真實工作情境（Realistic Job Preview，簡稱RJP）效果的廣告，其負向訊息比例與重要性對組織吸引力之影響，並探討求職者「對工作的期望」與「對組織的信任」在此關係的中介效果以及「求職者知覺的市場競爭力」在此關係的調節效果。本研究採用二因子受試者間實驗設計，所操弄的獨變項為招募廣告負向訊息佔總訊息量的比例，分為10％、20％、30％、40％、50％五種程度；以及負向訊息的重要性程度（高、低），依變項為組織吸引力。 本研究透過網際網路建置虛擬組織的招募網頁，吸引正欲求職的大學四年級及研究所學生經由網路進行實驗，得到466筆有效的實驗資料。研究結果顯示不同負向訊息比例對整體組織吸引力與各分量表的影響有顯著差異，而其在整體組織吸引力、組織正向情感、與工作吸引力有非線性的影響效果，即負向訊息的比例為20%者，其效果最高；負向訊息的高、低重要性程度會對整體組織吸引力與各分量表有不同的影響效果，越重要的負向訊息導致越高的組織吸引力。研究者並以ANCOVA檢驗工作期望的中介效果，結果顯示整體工作期望、工作內容期望、與一般性期望在負向訊息比例與組織吸引力之間有中介效果，組織信任的中介效果則沒有獲得驗證；負向訊息重要性會透過工作內容期望的中介效果影響組織吸引力，但無法確認組織信任有無中介效果。研究者以二因子變異數分析求職者知覺的市場競爭力的調節效果，結果顯示求職競爭力僅在公司期望與組織吸引力之間的關係有顯著的調節效果。研究者分別就結果加以討論，提出可能的解釋，並說明本研究之限制與貢獻。 / The purpose of this study is to empirically examine the effects of proportion and importance of negative information (having the function of realistic job preview with respect to web recruitment advertisements) on organizational attractiveness. The mediation effects of job expectation and trust toward organization on the previous relationships and the moderation effects of perceived job competitiveness on the previous relationships were examined. The independent variables of this study are proportion of the negative information (10%, 20%, 30%, 40%, or 50%) and importance of the negative information (low vs. high). The dependent variable is organizational attractiveness. Totally 466 seniors and graduate students who were hunting for a job joined in the experiment through the fictitious organization recruiting webpage. The result reveals that proportion of negative information has non-linear effect on organizational attractiveness. Recruitment ads with 20% of negative information had the strongest effect on organizational attractiveness. Negative information of higher importance induced more organizational attractiveness than that of lower importance. ANCOVA was used to examine the mediation effects. It shows that the job expectation mediates the relationship between proportion of negative information and organizational attractiveness. However, the mediation effect of trust toward organization on the relationship between proportion of negative information and organizational attractiveness hasn’t been confirmed. Via the mediation effect of job content expectation and trust toward organization, importance of negative information can affect organizational attractiveness.

有鑑於台灣將於2006 年全面轉換現有類比電視系統，進入數位 電視時代，此趨勢亦將帶動數位電視未來的成長與發展，但基於台灣 數位視訊服務與接收設備產品正處於起飛的階段，未來發展的不確定 性仍高，因此其市場商機與未來技術之發展就非常值得進行研究與探 討。故本研究藉由SRI 情境預測法，對台灣未來5 至10 年的有線數 位機上盒(Digital Cable STB)的功能、技術需求與市場狀況做分析預 測，並針對可能發生的情境，提出因應策略，以提供有線數位式機上 盒供應商做未來策略決策時的參考。 本研究係透過包含學界及實務界的專家群會議輔以腦力激盪的 方式循序討論出關鍵決定因素與驅動力量，並以三個不確定軸面形成 情境主軸，發展擴充成為情境內涵，再就各選定之情境(風雲年代、 市場導引、技術革命及夕陽餘暉)內容進行SWOT 及策略發展分析， 並發展出有線數位STB 供應商之市場及技術共通發展策略： 在市場發展策略方面，建議台灣數位有線STB 供應商考慮： 1.形成同業默契，避免掀起價格戰，維持合理利潤。 2.為避免分散力量，造成惡性競爭。應尋求同、異業結盟，擴大業務 規模及市場佔有率，並提高對供應商的議價力量。 3.與TV 業者結盟，推廣HDTV 市場。 4.取得主要CA 供應商授權，共同開發高成長潛力市場。 5.與MSO 業者結盟，合力推動數位視訊市場發展。 在技術發展策略方面，則建議應考量： 1.核心技術之提昇，如CA，寬頻通訊及HDTV 技術。 2.多功能STB 之開發，如DVD, Home Theater, Cable Modem, VoIP 及PVR 等。 3.與台灣半導體業者合作開發關鍵零組件(IC)以降低成本並掌握關鍵 技術。 4.Open Cable 之開發，以因應不同CA 系統之需求。 5.XDSL STB 與無線寬頻技術之研究。 / Taiwan government has formally announced to switch to digital TV program broadcasting from present analog TV program broadcasting system starting year of 2006. At present, digital video service in Taiwan is still in infant stage and with high uncertainty in future d evelopment trend. Therefore, it provides the motivation of studying the market potential and technological development of digital cable industry. This research is based on SRI scenario forecasting methodology to predict future functional, technological needs and the market status of digital cable set-top-box (STB) industry in Taiwan in the coming 5 to 10 years period. Then provide strategic directions to local digital cable STB manufacturers as the reference of strategic decision making. This research will go through a panel discussion with experts from cable industry and with professors’ involvement. To find out the key decision factors and driving forces, then select three uncertainty axes to develop the scenario content. Based on the discussion and voting result to pick up four most possible scenarios (Glory Day, Pull Enforce, Technology Revolution and Beautiful Sunset) for SWOT analysis and common strategies development from market and technology viewpoints. On the market strategies, suggest local digital cable STB manufacturers should consider: 1. Reach consensus with other digital cable STB manufacturers for pricing strategy, in order to maintain reasonable business profit and not fall into price-cutting competition. 2. Strategic alliance with other manufacturers to enlarge the business scale and strengthen the bargain power to suppliers. 3. Allied with TV manufacturers to stimulate the market demand of HDTV. 4. Authorized by major CA provider, co-develop the high potential market. 5. Allied with key MSOs to promote and accelerate digital video market growth. On the technological strategies, suggest local digital cable STB manufacturers should consider: 1. Core technologies enhancement, such as CA, broadband communication and HDTV technologies. 2. The development of multifunctional STB, such as DVD, home theater, cable modem, VoIP and PVR function built in STB. 3. Co-develop the key components (asics) with local semiconductor manufacturer to lower product cost and hold the key technology. 4. The development of open cable to meet different CA system’s requirement. 5. The research of XDSL STB and wireless broadband technology.

本論文旨在探討台北犁記餅店在2014年中秋節前夕爆發的餿水油事件中的危機溝通策略，並檢視其危機溝通成效。為探討危機溝通中傳統媒體與新媒體的角色區別，本論文檢視了四大報在餿水油事件中對於台北犁記餅店的線上報導、台北犁記的官方網站與相關官方文件，以及台北犁記的臉書粉絲團。研究結果發現傳統報章媒體已和新媒體高度整合匯流，因此危機事件的傳播速度比起以往更加快速、傳播範圍也更加廣泛。這樣的現象使得公關人員在面對危機事件時，必須更精準地掌握時間做出適當的危機溝通策略，並更加善用社群媒體以和關係人溝通。本論文特別研究台灣中小型本土企業在數位時代中面對危機的溝通策略與成效，提供有別於針對跨國或大型連鎖企業的分析與建議。 / This present case study of Taiwan gutter oil crisis focused on the well-known pastry bakery, Taipei Lee-Chi. This century-old bakery was involved in the food safety crisis during Moon Festival in 2014, resulting in a financial loss of more than NTD 40 million at that time. To explore how traditional and new media play roles in crisis communication for local businesses in Taiwan, the present case study examined relevant news coverage, official documents, and communication activities on social media. More specifically, the analysis included media’s attitude toward the issue shown on major newspaper websites, the responses of Taipei Lee-Chi, and public opinions revealed on its Facebook fan page. The findings suggested that traditional media have converged with new media, and the latter assumes such a powerful influence in crisis communication today. It was found that similar crisis information fast transits from one medium to another, adding more pressure to public relations practitioners to respond to crisis in a timely manner. Social media in particular may not be overlooked and could serve a useful tool in managing corporate crisis. The current study also offered new insights on how local businesses may deal with crisis in the digital age, as most previous crisis studies addressed cases of large national or global corporations.

本論文提出追蹤特定目標線的二階段混合整數非線性隨機規劃模型，以建立追蹤目標線的投資組合。藉由引進情境樹(scenario tree)，我們將此類二階段隨機規劃問題，轉換成為等價的非隨機規劃模型。在金融商品的價格波動及交互作用下，所建立的投資組合在經過一段時間後，其追蹤目標線的能力可能會日趨降低，所以本論文亦提出調整投資組合的規劃模型。為符合實務考量，本論文同時考慮交易成本、股票放空的限制，並且加入期貨進行避險。為了反應投資者的預期心理，也引進了選擇權及情境樹。最後，我們使用台灣股票市場、期貨交易市場及台指選擇權市場的資料進行實證研究，亦探討不同成長率設定之目標線與投資比例對於投資組合的影響。 / To construct a portfolio tracking specific target line, this thesis studies how to do it via two-stage stochastic mixed-integer nonlinear model. We introduce scenario tree to convert this stochastic model into an deterministic equivalent model. Under the volatility of price and the interaction of each financial derivatives, the performance of the tracking portfolio may get worse when time elapses, this thesis proposes another mathematical model to rebalance the tracking portfolio. These models consider the transactions cost and the limitation of shorting a stock, and the tracking portfolio will include a futures as a hedge position. To reflect the expectation of investors, we introduce scenario tree and also include a options as a hedge position. Finally, an empirical study will be performed by the data from Taiwan stock market, the futures market and the options market to explore the performance of the proposed models. We will analyze how the different benchmarks settings and invest ratio will affect the value of the tracking portfolio.

金融風暴喚起各界改革財務報表未能反映實際虧損的缺失，因此，新版國際財務報導準則第9號及第17號公報應運而生，未來正式接軌後，對於壽險業的財報將產生重大衝擊，更突顯其資產負債管理之重要性，故本研究係採用主成分分析建構極端利率情境，並考量折現率需反映現時狀況下，於資產面分別以攤銷後成本或公允價值衡量、負債面採公允價值評價，欲探討資產負債配置及攤銷後成本比重不同時，利率變動對於壽險公司股東權益波動度之影響，以供壽險業參考。 研究結果發現攤銷後成本比重能夠有效控制股東權益波動度。再者，壽險公司應審慎評估海外投資比例，並配合其壽險商品外幣保單之銷售策略加以布局，同時謹慎考量會計決策，適當選擇攤銷後成本權重，方能有效控制資產負債表之波動。 / The financial crisis has caused wide public concern since it is failed to reflect the actual losses in financial statements. As a result, International Accounting Standards Board (IASB) issued new International Financial Reporting Standards, IFRS 9 and IFRS 17. The surplus of life insurers may fluctuate sharply if assets and liabilities don’t match appropriately under these new IFRS Standards. We follow the international regulation standard by using principal component analysis to generate extreme interest rate shock scenarios. This study examines the volatility of surplus under extreme interest rate shock scenarios for different combinations of liabilities, fair-valued assets, and amortized cost assets. In particular, the assets are measured at amortized cost or fair value, and all liabilities were acquired at fair value approach. In the numerical analysis, we showed that it is one of the most effective methods to control the surplus volatility by adjusting the percentage of amortized cost assets. Furthermore, life insurer should adjust the percentage of foreign investments and insurance policies carefully in order to reduce the fluctuation in shareholders’ equity.

保險詐欺是自有保險制度以來就有的問題，世界各國都被這個問題所困擾。因為沒有受到廣泛的宣傳及討論，加上執法機關的忽視、抗拒提供調查機能及加強追訴，所以在1980年代以前沒有被當作重大問題予以重視，一般民眾完全不知它的嚴重性，把它當作「沒有被害人的犯罪（victimless crime）」。然而保險詐欺隨時都在發生，而且範圍及程度日益擴大，已堪稱為「溫和的巨災（quiet catastrophe）」，不但影響個人經濟負擔，且破壞社會安定，因此本文就如何防制保險詐欺加以探討。 保險詐欺直接衝擊的是保險公司的經營穩定性與安全性，對保險公司而言是經營上的風險，因此從風險管理的角度，分析保險公司的實務運作，探討運用各種風險管理對策防制保險詐欺的可行性。經本文研究發覺以風險管理模式可以防制保險詐欺或減輕保險詐欺的損失，各種風險管理對策運用如下： （一） 風險自承原則：對規模小、影響層面小的保險詐欺案件，列為「堪忍的詐欺」，予以承受，以節省相關的查證經費。 （二） 風險規避原則：建立「防範保險詐欺查核表」，在進行核保、理賠作業時嚴格查核，積極避開保險詐欺風險。 （三） 風險分散原則：針對損失頻率低、損失幅度大的案件採取同業共保的方式；對損失頻率高、損失幅度小的案件採取約定自負額方式承保，以分散風險。 （四） 風險轉嫁原則：約集保險同業成立相互保險組織，把保險詐欺所帶來的風險移轉給相互保險組織。 保險詐欺基本上是犯罪行為，要消弭犯罪行為可以藉由對犯罪環境加以有效管理、設計或操作，以及降低犯罪機會達到目的。本文研究發現推動「詐欺管理生命週期理論」的嚇阻、預防、察覺、緩和、分析、政策、偵查、追溯等措施，及「情境犯罪預防理論」的增加犯罪困難度、提升犯罪風險、降低犯罪報酬、削弱犯罪動機等措施，喚起全民共同防制保險詐欺的意念，可以壓制保險詐欺之發生。 嚴謹的法令規範是防制犯罪的根本，經由本文的探討發覺保險詐欺的盛行，除了民眾法治觀念差以外，現行法令不周全，讓歹徒有機可乘及執法單位強制力不足，亦是原因之一。修訂保險法及刑法，對於防制保險詐欺有很大的效益。 / “Insurance Fraud” has been an issue, by which the countries all over the world are perplexed, since there exists the system of insurance. By 1980’s, not much attention has been paid to this issue which deemed a victimless crime and the public does not realize how serious the problem is due to the lake of broad propaganda and the ignorance, being rejected to offer the function, and being refused to strengthen prosecution by the law enforcement agency. Nevertheless, insurance fraud happens all the time and has already been called the “quiet catastrophe” because the range and severity caused keep expanding day by day. Resulting from, not only the financial burden of the individual is influenced, but the social stability is destroyed as well. Therefore, this paper probed into “how to prevent Insurance Fraud”. Since Insurance Fraud would strike the financial stability and security of an insurance company, it becomes kind of risk on company’s management. This paper would be analyzing the practical operation of an insurance company and trying to find out the feasibility of Insurance Fraud Prevention by using various kinds of risk management countermeasures. By which, this paper discovers the losses caused by insurance fraud could be prevented and/ or reduced. The followings are those risk management countermeasures studied and applied: A. The principle of “Risk Retention & Reduction”: Sorting out those cases by loss amount scale. Smaller ones are classified & named as “Admitted Fraud”, and settled without verification in order to save the related expenses for investigation. B. The principle of “Risk Avoidance or Hedging”: Setting up “Checking List of Insurance Fraud”, by using which to actively avoid the risk of insurance fraud while carrying on the operations of underwriting and claim handling. C. The principle of “Risk Sharing & Diversification”: Co-insuring with peer companies for those accounts with the characteristic of low frequency & high severity in terms of loss exposure. As to other accounts, appointing an appropriate policy deductible level to disperse the risk of Insurance Fraud. D. The principle of “Risk Transference or Shift”: Establishing the pooling system or organization to transfer the risk of Insurance Fraud to the peer companies. Basically, Insurance Fraud is a criminal offence, which could be eliminated and / or reduced by way of methods of management, design, and operation on the crime environment. It is found that the occurrence of Insurance Fraud could be depressed by: A. Promoting measures of “The Fraud Management Lifecycle Theory”, such as deterrence, prevention, detection, mitigation, analysis, policy, investigation, prosecution etc., and B. Executing the countermeasures of “The Situational Crime Prevention Theory” such as increasing perceived efforts, increasing perceived risks, reducing anticipated reward, removing excuses etc., and C. Arousing the public the thought of fighting Insurance Fraud mutually. A rigorous legal system is the base of preventing criminal offence. As discovered and presented by this paper, reasons why the Insurance Fraud has been prevailing are not only because of a poor sense of legal compliance of the public, but also the un-thoroughness of the current legal system resulting in offering ruffians opportunities to take advantages from Insurance Fraud and the in-sufficient power of prosecution of the law enforcement agency. Therefore, to revise the insurance law and criminal law would be greatly workable for preventing Insurance Fruad.

本文旨在探討透過權力分享式民主與審議式民主的取徑，來緩解當前台灣民主困境的可行性。 首先，本文討論了當前台灣民主困境的成因，以及藍綠雙方的根本差異。同時指出，台灣當前的民主困境可被視為一種極度分裂社會的狀態來理解，並將台灣民主困境的關鍵難題，定位在認同差異與政治不信任。 其次，本文從既有的權力分享式民主的文獻中，梳理出有助於解決當前台灣民主困境的「規範性概念」與「經驗性證據」；做為權力分享式民主對當前台灣民主困境的回應。經過分析後發現，利用協合式民主去處理當前台灣民主困境，應是個值得嘗試的方向。若將協合式民主中菁英間的決策模式，改由審議取代議價，則此種修正型的協合式民主可為長期解決族群衝突提供更多的可能性。 繼之，本文從既有的審議式民主的文獻中，梳理出有助於解決當前台灣民主困境的「規範性理念」與「經驗性證據」，作為審議式民主對於當前台灣民主困境的回應。經過分析後發現，理論上，審議式民主的理想審議是可以解決當前台灣民主困境，只不過理想言說情境在現實生活中很難達成。但是這並不排除理想言說情境是可以近似達成的。不過文獻中迄今仍無經驗證據顯示，單獨利用審議式民主可以解決在極度分裂社會中的國家認同問題。為了讓對立雙方願意自由參加對話、願意相互尊重，以及願意理性溝通，必須提供誘因，而權力分享就是一種誘因。此外，為了判斷對話或審議環境是否接近理想言說情境，必須要有量化的測量工具，而話語品質指數(DQI)就是一種工具。因此，權力分享與DQI，就是強化審議式民主的兩種有效工具。 面對當前台灣民主困境，本文最後提出了一個結合協合式民主與審議式民主(即修正型的協合式民主)的現階段策略的建議。 / This thesis explores the feasibility of mitigating ethnic conflict of current Taiwan employing the methods of power-sharing democracy and deliberative democracy. First of all, the causes and the key difficult problems of democratic predicament, and the dispute in national identity between the pan-blue and pan-green camps, as those currently exist in Taiwan, are discussed in greater detail. The key difficult problems appear to be conflict in identities and political distrust. Next, based on the existing literature of power-sharing democracy, this thesis identifies the normative ideas and empirical evidences that are relevant to the settlement of democratic predicament of current Taiwan. After an in depth analysis, it concludes that the use of consociational approach to manage democratic predicament of current Taiwan should be the direction worth trying. The so-called modified consociational democracy, which is formed to meet the deliberative requirements of publicity and reciprocity, by replacing consociational decision making with deliberation, may provide more possibility for longer-term goal of ethnic conflict resolution. Likewise, based on the existing literature of deliberative democracy, this thesis identifies the normative ideas and empirical evidences that are relevant to the settlement of democratic predicament of current Taiwan. After an in depth analysis, it concludes that, theoretically, the use of ideal deliberation approach appears capable of dealing with the democratic predicament of current Taiwan. Although it is not possible to create Habermas’s ideal speech situation on a precise level, it is possible to achieve ISS approximately. However, there did not exist any empirical evidence in the literature to demonstrate that the application of deliberative democracy alone may provide conflict resolution of the national identity problem in deeply divided societies. In order to let both sides of the conflicting groups be willing to participate freely in the dialogue, be willing to respect one another, and be willing to communicate rationally, it is necessarily to provide both sides with power-sharing incentives tailored to make both sides feel absolutely secure. In addition, in order to evaluate how close the dialogue or deliberative approaches the conditions of ideal speech situation, it is necessarily to have a quantitative measuring instrument at our disposal and the discourse quality index (DQI) is such an instrument. Therefore, power-sharing and DQI tend to form two effective tools for strengthening the deliberative democracy. Finally, this thesis proposes the modified consociational democracy as the present stage strategy for the resolution of democratic predicament of current Taiwan.