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  • About
  • The Global ETD Search service is a free service for researchers to find electronic theses and dissertations. This service is provided by the Networked Digital Library of Theses and Dissertations.
    Our metadata is collected from universities around the world. If you manage a university/consortium/country archive and want to be added, details can be found on the NDLTD website.
31

離散型反應擴散方程的全解 / Entire Solutions for Discrete Reaction-Diffusion Equations

王宏嘉, Wang,Hong-Jia Unknown Date (has links)
這篇文章中,我們探討離散型反應擴散方程u_t(x,t)=u(x+1,t)-2u(x,t)+u(x-1,t)+f(u(x,t)),其中 反應項f(u)=u^2(1-u)。在此, 我們證明此方程式存在一種全解其動態行為宛如兩個來自x軸兩端相向而行的行波。 / This paper deals with a discrete reaction-diffusion equation u_t(x,t)=u(x+1,t)-2u(x,t)+u(x-1,t)+f(u(x,t)), where f(u)=u^2(1-u). Here, we prove there exist entire solutions which behave as two traveling waves coming from both sides of x-axis.
32

以股東價值函數在公司定價理論的應用 / The Application of Shareholder Value Function in the Evaluation of Company

林盈妤 Unknown Date (has links)
股東價值函數意指公司未來預期股利的加總,其模型主要利用擴散過程來建構。因為公司可透過保留現金和發放股利兩大策略來調控公司價值--過多現金保留將產生現金邊際效益降低;現金保留過少則會產生流動性風險甚至破產問題。論文主要探討公司在捨取現金保留時如果達大公司價值的極大化,並利用實際資料來檢視上市公司的價值是否有高低估之嫌。此外,亦在論文中提供以股東價值函數為評價方式的交易策略。 / We consider a problem of finding the optimal solution for maximizing the value of a firm in a stochastic environment. In the paper, we apply a methodology that determines a corporate value by using cash reserves as the main variables. We examine the model by employing two empirical approaches to compare the corporate value computed from the model to the market value. We find that there are slight differences between the stock value and shareholder value. Therefore, we may use the facts that we find to construct optimal trading strategies to exploit small price differences.
33

醫師採用創新產品之影響因素-以採用心臟支架之情境為例 / The decision determinants of physician’s innovation adoption - a empirical study of coronary stent diffusion in Taiwan

孫玉齡 Unknown Date (has links)
本研究在探討醫師採用不同世代產品行為受到醫院背景、個人因素及病患之影響,以全民健康保險資料庫進行大樣本迴歸分析,分析自中央健康保險局納入給付後醫師採用心臟支架的情形,並對醫師首次採用時間早晚進行研究分析。本研究以兩世代產品採用差異發掘創新擴散各階段醫師採用心臟支架的影響變數,並分為醫院-醫師-病患三個層次來做整體考量。實證結果顯示,從醫療院所的層級或權屬看來,醫院層級對醫師採用早晚無顯著影響,而私立醫院的醫師較早採用第二代產品。另外,在醫師個人特質方面,年齡越大的醫師越早採用產品,資深醫師會較晚採用第一代產品,而女性醫師也會較晚採用第一代產品。從病患影響的角度來看,醫師所遇到的病人願意自付比例高者,採用時間越早。而兩世代採用時間早晚也具相關性,越早採用第一代產品,也會越早採用第二代產品。 / The purpose of this research is to investigate the decision determinants of physician’s innovation adoption of multi-generations products. Based on the National Health Insurance database, this study focuses on analyzing the physician’s adoption time on coronary stent to verify the hypothetical determinants from hospital - physician - patient levels. The empirical results show that the academic level is not associated with physician’s innovation adoption time. Physician in private hospital is likely to adopt the second generation product earlier. In addition, physician’s personal characteristics- age, work experience and gender also have significant impacts upon physician’s adoption time. Elder physician will be early adopters of innovation products, and senior or female physician will be the late adopters of first-generation products. As to the influence of patients, if the physician’s patients are more willing to pay, the physician will adopt product earlier. Besides, the two generations have positive correlation, the earlier adopter in first-generation products will also adopt second-generation product earlier.
34

創業家於劣勢中應用弱連結創新擴散 / Entrepreneurs that put at a disadvantage using weak tie diffusion of innovation

劉淑慧, Liu, Shu Huei Unknown Date (has links)
人脈理論相關的文獻,尤以 Granovetter(1973)提出非常優雅的「弱連結 (weak tie)」一詞最為經典,他的論文發現經由弱連結介紹新工作的成功率高於 強連結,同時提出弱連結相較於強連結(strong tie)更多元,因此弱連結對宏觀世 界的效益必大於強連結。而後 Rogers(2006)也在創新的擴散中提出弱連結應 該屬於異質性連結,強連結則屬於同質性的連結,異質性不容易連結卻對擴散的 影響更大。因此本研究的動機將以弱勢的創業家為研究對象,探討弱連結擴散的 動機與擴散方法,並回答研究問題弱連結的擴散效益為何? 本研究發現弱連結的脆弱並不全然是異質性不易溝通之故,因為弱連結與強連結最大的不同是強連結靠關係遠近產生連結,弱連結則是自願性的連結居多,因此創業家的創夢才是真正點燃連結的起源,此外弱連結的橋樑特質是喜好轉介稀有性消息,產生消息經濟的效益而達到更廣泛的連結,因此研究者認為弱連結應用於創新擴散將有三點效益,第一點是弱連結因為自發性動機與可被信任的第三方而提高傳遞意願,第二點是弱連結以泛泛之交居多,他們喜好轉介稀有性消息,因此提高傳送廣度,最後發現所謂的六度分隔除了代表差異性人脈將造成平 均為六的結果外,也代表著六個人脈圈,本研究因此發現第一度的人脈差異將影 響網際網路時代的小世界接受率。 而對於創業家以弱連結來進行創新擴散,研究者認為實務上建立異質性創業 團隊將有助於進入不同特質的弱連結樞紐區,此外創業家勇於發表創夢的想法, 其心態越開放也有助於凝聚弱連結,因此創業家可以藉由社群網站或部落格等媒 體建立自行發聲的管道,將有助於幫助創業家位於樞紐中心,強化擴散的能力。 研究者在回顧文獻後也發現,弱連結在開放式網絡下的橋樑特質與效益被後來學 者忽略,同時隨著網際網路興起帶來多元的媒體與開放式人際關係,研究者認為 將更有助於觀察弱連結對創新擴散的幫助,本研究觀察 Apps 產業裡 Bonnie’s Brunch 個案後,經由八位訪談者與半年的網路社群媒體追蹤的結果,發現弱連 結的橋樑功能是資訊的聚集處,也是連結的捷徑,因此擁有對的連結的確是很重要的事,但是弱連結卻未必時常擔任善意的陌生人,因此弱連結的連結困難在於弱連結的自願性動機,因此研究者在理論貢獻部分提出弱連結的力量來源為自願性的動機,這股隱性的力量唯有受到單純動機的點燃才能爆發出來,因此創業家成功的方程式還有一項無法被操控的弱連結影響力,唯有創業家經過長期的耕耘,持續提供資訊交換,才能與弱聯結維繫關係。 / Among the personal network theory related literatures, the elegant term “weak tie” proposed by Granovetter(1973) is the most classic theory. His thesis paper finding shows that the success rate of introducing new jobs through a weak tie is higher than that of a strong tie. Hence, he believes that as the macroscopic view of the world’s weak tie is more diverse than the strong tie, the benefits produced after creating the tie are definitely greater than the strong tie. Rogers (2006) later proposed in diffusion of innovation that the weak tie is the tie of heterogeneity, while the strong tie is the tie of homogeneity. Heterogeneity does not easily produce a tie, but it has a greater impact on diffusion. Therefore, the weak tie diffusion motivation and diffusion method were explored in this study, and the research problem, i.e., the diffusion benefits of the weak tie, was answered. It was found in this study that the vulnerability of the weak tie is not entirely due to the communication difficulty of heterogeneity, because the greatest difference between the weak tie and strong tie lies in the fact that strong ties produce ties depending on the distance of a relationship, while weak ties are generally voluntary ties. Hence, entre- preneurs’ building of dreams is the actual source that triggers ties. In addition, the weak tie bridge is characterized by a preference to prefer rare news, Newsonomics, and achieve more extensive links. Thus, the researcher believes that there are three benefits when the weak tie is applied in diffusion of innovation. First, the weak tie enhances the willingness to convey messages due to its own voluntary motivation and trustworthy third party. Second, weak ties are generally formed by acquaintances. They prefer to refer rare news, thus the broader conveyance. Lastly, it was found that the so-called six degrees not only represents differential personal networks that result in the outcome of six on average, but also represents six network circles. It was therefore found in this study that the first-degree personal network will affect the small world acceptance rate in the Internet age. As for entrepreneurs, they engaged in diffusion of innovation through weak ties. The researcher believes that, in practice, the establishment of the entrepreneurial team of homogeneity is conducive to entry into weak tie hubs of different characteristics. In addition, entrepreneurs had the courage to express their ideas about building dreams, and their open-mindedness also contributed to the gathering of weak ties. Hence, it is suggested that entrepreneurs establish channels to voice themselves through communi- ty networks, BLOG, and other medias, which will help them stay in the hub and strengthen their ability to diffuse. Through literature review, the researcher found that the bridging characteristics and benefits of the weak tie in the open-type network had been neglected by subsequent researchers. At the same time, the rise of the Internet has brought about a diversity of media and open-type interpersonal relationships, which is believed to be more helpful for weak ties to contribute to diffusion of innovation. Through observations made on the entrepreneurs of Bonnie’s Brunch in the App industry, the results of interviews with 8 individuals, and long-term tracking of Internet community media, it was found that the bridge of the weak tie is a gathering place of information and it is also a shortcut of ties. Therefore, having the right links is indeed important. However, the weak tie is not always willing to serve as the stranger that displays goodwill. The difficulty in linking weak ties therefore lies in the voluntary motivation of the weak tie. In the researcher’s theoretical contributions, it was mentioned that the source of the weak tie force is the voluntary motivation, and this implicit force can only explode after igniting pure mo- tive. Therefore, the successful equation still possesses the influence of the weak tie that cannot be manipulated. Only through long-term cultivation of entrepreneurs and con- tinuous provision of information exchanges to maintain the relationships with weak ties.
35

利用擴散磁共振影像分析棒球運動員的神經連結特性 / Using diffusion tensor imaging to access brain connectivity of baseball players

黃笠哲, Huang, Li Che Unknown Date (has links)
從1980年代被提出的擴散磁振造影理論(Diffusion MRI theory)至1994年推導出的擴散張量磁振造影(diffusion tensor imaging)的理論,擴散磁振造影在現今已具有高重現性,擴散磁振造影由一開始的結構影像進階到具有向量資訊的腦神經影像,不難見得在非侵入式的醫學診斷儀器發展得相當蓬勃,此項技術應用於判斷血性腦中風,可以準確評估腦部、肝臟腫瘤的治療效果。擴散張量影像技術,它主要應用在神經疾病的研究。更進一步的使用神經纖維成像技術來檢測神經網路。神經纖維成像技術,在追蹤神經網路的做法可以分為確定型神經徑路追蹤演算法(deterministic tractography methods),機率型神經徑路追蹤演算法(probabilistic tractography methods)。在過去的研究中,所使用的確定型追蹤法已有一定的發展在於白質區域的神經追蹤,但是比較困難去描述神經在擴散方向不明確的灰質區域。我們所使用的機率型神經徑路追蹤演算法,追蹤腦迴區域間的神經纖維。透過區分不同的大腦皮質區域,並計算各個腦迴區域之間的神經連結。我們的研究運動為棒球,並將其分成三組,Skilled group(S組):大專盃甲組(公開組)選手,包含擁有棒球專項體育保送生、體育資優生;Intermediate group(I組):大專盃乙組(一般組)選手,或是擁有類似層級的比賽經驗,如:系際盃、社會棒球聯賽等;Control group(C組):無棒球運動經驗者(普通體育課除外)。三組各15名受試者,共45人。我們以灰質腦區的連結機率、區域非等向性(Fractional anisotropy)和平均擴散(mean diffusivity)數據來判斷,FA的數值為0~1之間,數值越大越表此部分水分子越以單一方向擴散,臨床上可能代表神經纖維密度(fiber density)或髓鞘化(myelination)的程度。我們在灰質部分發現Paracentral Lobule、Precentral這些腦區在S組與C組受試者有顯著差異,並且也具有較大的連結機率,在白質發現Posterior corona radiata、Superior longitudinal fasciculus中S組與C組同樣有著顯著差異。本研究以棒球運動員為對象,探討長期訓練下對與腦部連結性的改變,初步結果已發現白質組織擴散影像的連結特性會因為訓練而造成群組間的差異,同時以會在灰質間的連結性找到群組間的差異,此部分結果未來可進一步與其他結構資訊(皮質厚度、體積)做比較。
36

概念型創新的動態擴散過程--複雜理論觀點

王美雅, Wang, Mei-ya Unknown Date (has links)
許多新概念或新技術的擴散通常不僅耗時甚長、擴散範圍十分廣泛,再加上社會網路在其中扮演了重要的角色,使得創新擴散本質上就屬於一種動態、非線性的複雜現象,事實上,近來研究發現,創新擴散的諸多特徵,包括「動態、非線性的複雜行為」,「正向回饋的自我組織現象」,以及「對初始狀態一些微小因素的敏感度」等,都與複雜理論中所強調「複雜系統」中的諸多特徵不謀而合。 另一方面,近來創新擴散研究逐漸將擴散視為一個創新者與採用者雙向互動的傳播過程,在擴散過程中,創新的演化與成員間的動態互動成為主要焦點。過去的擴散研究較少討論個體與總體層次間的結構化過程,亦即成員如何互動而產生系統層次的創新秩序,而系統層次的創新結果又如何進一步影響成員的互動,而複雜理論正好可以提供跨層次架構來回應此一理論缺口。 因此,本論文的研究問題包括以下兩者:一、由複雜理論觀點來看,概念型創新擴散的動態過程為何?二、由複雜觀點來看,在概念型創新的擴散過程中,相關因素如何影響創新擴散的動態過程?這些因素間存在何種互動與回饋關係?承上所述,本研究的範圍界定為「概念型創新」,在此「概念型創新」指的是近似於典範的一種具有複雜多元內涵的創新。 在研究方法上,本論文採用序列性多元方法的研究設計。利用歷史法、實驗法與個案法三種研究方法,針對相同的兩項問題,總共進行三項實證性研究,透過「質性方法--量化方法--質性方法」三種研究方法的截長補短,提高本研究的理論效度。 研究一利用歷史研究法對蒙特梭利教學法的擴散過程進行研究,將蒙特梭利教學法的擴散分為三階段,透過三階段成功、失敗與成功三種不同結果,發現不同的初始狀態變數情況,主要是再創造可能性與體制開放與自由度,將導致創新擴散的不同結果。研究二新概念擴散實驗進行兩階段實驗設計,操弄五項自變數進行重複多因子實驗,共取得二十八個實驗數據;比較不同變數情境與採用結果,除了驗證初始狀態變數對創新擴散的影響外,也發現自變數間存在明顯的交互關係。研究三進行蝴蝶蘭產業創新擴散個案研究,比較台糖進入蝴蝶蘭產業前後的創新擴散過程,以及蝴蝶蘭、嘉德利雅蘭,以及國蘭三種蘭屬的發展過程。隨著三項實證研究的進行,變數內涵逐漸豐富化,證據力也進一步強化。在研究三結束後得到修正後的觀念性架構,成為本論文的結論。 在結論部分,本研究有三大主張。首先,系統的初始狀態,包括創新導入者的網路位置、體制自由與開放性、再創造可能性、創新內涵豐富性、擴散誘因與採用人數等六項因素,將影響創新擴散成功的可能性。其次,創新擴散過程中包含許多的演化與正向回饋機制。最後,創新擴散是一個自我組織的過程,系統秩序從低一層次成員之間的互動自然突現,而非走向無序;但在自我組織過程中,秩序的出現有賴於中央協調機制(標準版本);同時系統需要不斷輸入的能源,使其維持在自我組織行為出現的臨界點之上,這些能源通常來自於新採用者所帶來的量與質的效果。 / This dissertation applies a new perspective, complexity theory, to discuss the diffusion of “conceptual innovation”. Here conceptual innovation indicates a paradigm-like innovation with various content. By using “metaphor”, I treat diffusion as a self-organization process, and adopted important concepts from complexity theory, such as initial conditions, positive feedback, and self-organization, and then develop a dynamic process model of innovation diffusion. In this dissertation, a multi-method research design is adopted. To draw on the strength of each and offset the weakness of the others, three empirical studies were conducted. First study, the pilot study of this dissertation, is concerning the diffusion process of Montessori method, in which the different result of three diffusion stages was compared. Second, a laboratory experimental study simulating diffusion process of a new concept has been conducted. In each experiment, a new concept was announced and counted the number of adopters. Each experiment has different scenario design that is one specific combination of all variables, and then the number of adopters was compared. Third, the diffusion process of Phalaenopsis (Moth Orchid) industrial innovations was studied, in which the development process of early/late stage and three category orchids was compared. This dissertation concludes with the following findings. First, innovation diffusion is a dynamic, nonlinear complex process; factors in initial conditions will influence the result of innovation diffusion. Secondly, evolution and positive feedback effects work continuously all through the diffusion process. Finally, diffusion of conceptual innovation is a self-organization process, which depends on energy injecting into the system continuously and the existence of central coordination mechanism in the system.
37

休閒健身產業團體課程知識擴散模式之研究-以Les Mills Body Training System為例

劉恆銘 Unknown Date (has links)
由於國民生活水準不斷的提升,健康與體適能(Health and Fitness)受到社會大眾的關切,成為人人共同追求目標,休閒健身產業也隨之興盛。休閒健身產業發展與一個國家經濟規模有相當密切的關係,因此歐、美、澳洲的休閒健身產業向來是領導全球風潮,日本則是居亞洲領導地位。根據IHRSA國際健康及運動俱樂部協會(International Health, Racquet & Sportsclub Association)2004年的資料顯示,全世界加入健身俱樂部的人口也越來越多,起因於1970年代時體適能風潮(Fitness Boom)的產生。我國休閒健身產業規模雖然在歐美、日本等先進國家之後,但近年來受地球村趨勢帶動資訊大量引入,在國內亦有相同的情形,標榜健康體適能的健身俱樂部在這幾年來蓬勃發展,休閒健身產業的型態逐漸建立,知名健身俱樂部都有固定的參與會員,在激烈的擴張與競爭之下,形成對專業管理人員、服務人員與運動課程指導員的大量需求。 在知識密集產業中,以專業能力從業的工作人員,即為『知識工作者』(Drucker,1997)。在迅速擴張的休閒健身產業中,人才的專業性與信賴度逐漸提高,運動指導員即扮演著知識工作者的角色;其中,需要擁有專業訓練與不斷更新教學內容的『團體指導員』 (Group Instructor),更是必須要常態地運用教學技巧與專長知識,直接面對多數的學生或會員(社會大眾的參與者)。 面對求新求變的產業環境,必須不斷學習專業技能與個人特色,然而這種無法現學即用的知識,即為Michael Polanyi(1966)所提出的『內隱知識』,是難以形式化和言語溝通的,也無法透過短時間的學習就可以立竿見影。團體課程搭配音樂與固定動作的套裝教學,則是以『外顯知識』的教學轉化成課程學生容易學習的方式。Nonaka & Takeuchi(1995)則提出『知識的轉換』(knowledge conversion)之SECI 模式,藉由內隱與外顯知識間的相互轉換,來達到個人與組織知識的創造與動態增長,將知識有效地擴散到各個層次。 若組織成員能妥善創造、移轉並應用組織內部關鍵且獨特的知識,將是組織獲得競爭優勢,維持競爭力的關鍵因素。因此如何讓組織內各個成員願意分享知識,知識管理的機制與組織提供適合的環境就是非常必要的;如同整個休閒健身產業的環境對團體指導員的友善程度,以及健身俱樂部提供足夠的資源給團體指導員,包括在口頭上與行動上的支持與獎勵制度。若組織內擁有許多有助於知識擴散的管道,在知識流動過程中也能帶來知識增值的效果。 本研究選擇全世界團體健身課程中推廣成效最顯著的Les Mills Body Training System教學系統,來探討在休閒健身產業中知識擴散的過程與應用。藉由系統化教學流程與完整的人才培訓制度,以及授權俱樂部的管理機制並搭配行銷活動,探討內隱和外顯知識在個人與組織之間擴散的流程,可供休閒健身產業中如何管理訓練運動指導員之參考;亦可歸納到個人知識工作者於組織中進行知識創造與擴散方式,並產生新的綜效與價值。本研究的結論如下: 一、知識工作者透過學習與分享的方式來厚植本身的知識和技能,而組織則建構良好的培訓流程,讓員工的知識得以增長並認同組織文化,促進員工的學習動機和工作熱忱。 二、在休閒健身產業中,知識工作者可根據工作範圍內知識擴散的來源與對象,而從事不同的知識工作。 三、團體課程利用成套編排的外化方式,將組織創造的知識具體化表現出來,並申請智慧財產權得到必要的保護,透過授權與網路連結的方式有效利用與流通知識,達到跨組織的知識擴散。 四、組織透過個人、群組和組織之間的知識擴散,連結知識網絡來形成知識擴散的螺旋,進而創造、累積、活用知識資產。 五、組織提供適當的知識創新環境與知識流通空間,藉由個人或群組的意見回饋來提升員工與組織的創造力。
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運用半參數平滑係數分量廻歸法探討產業與股市大盤間資訊傳遞速度 / Using Semiparametric Smooth Coefficient Quantile Regression Model to Analyze the Information Diffusion between Industries and Stock Markets

楊國偉, Yang, Kuo-Wei Unknown Date (has links)
傳統財務理論認為市場具有效率,在投資者具有理性且追求最大效用的假設下,股價應能迅速且完全的反應所有資訊,但近年來許多學者研究發現一些違反傳統定價理論和效率市場的實證結果。為解釋上述傳統定價理論無法解釋的異常現象,以心理學對投資人決策過程的研究成果為基礎,重新檢視整體市場價格的行為財務學便獲得重視。 本文使用半參數平滑係數分量廻歸模型,利用1988至2007最近20年的月資料,檢視G7各國在不同大盤表現分量上,不同產業股價超額報酬率,是否造成總體經濟指標對大盤未來超額報酬率的邊際影響有所不同?藉以了解各國在不同股市報酬率分量上的資訊傳遞速度與彼此間的差異。此外,利用半參數平滑係數分量廻歸模型,亦可觀察產業超額報酬率如何直接影響未來大盤超額報酬率,不但較傳統最小平方法(ordinary least squares, OLS)更富有彈性,也能觀察在不同分量上的變化情形。 本文發現美國各產業超額報酬率,對未來大盤超額報酬率的直接或間接影響,在不同大盤表現分量上呈現很大差異,未來大盤超額報酬率皆明顯隨著產業超額報酬率的改變而變動;至於其他六國,亦有相似情況,顯示投資人無法即時解讀產業資訊對未來總體經濟的影響,導致產業資訊於產業與大盤間緩慢擴散。 / In this paper, we use semiparametric smooth coefficient quantile regression model to analyze the information diffusion between industries and stock markets. Under different quantile of stock market performances, we examine whether the returns of industry portfolios cause macroeconomic indicator to affect the future stock market performance marginally using data on monthly returns to G7 industry portfolios for the years between 1988 and 2007. We find that the returns of industry portfolios in USA affect the future stock market performance directly or indirectly which display much variously. Moreover, the other counties of G7 also have the same situation. Hence, these findings indicate that investors are unable to understand the influence of industry shocks on macroeconomic activities and information diffuses across investors in different markets only gradually.
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運用向量誤差修正模型探討產業與股市大盤間資訊傳遞速度

楊淳如, Yang, Chun Ju Unknown Date (has links)
傳統財務理論認為市場具有效率,在投資人理性且追求最大效用的假設下,股價應能立即且完整的反應所有資訊,但近年來許多學者研究發現一些違反傳統定價理論和效率市場的實證結果。為解釋上述傳統定價理論無法解釋的異常現象,以心理學對投資人決策過程的研究成果為基礎,重新檢視整體市場價格的行為財務學便獲得重視。 本研究以1988年至2007年間,亞洲四小龍(台灣、香港、新加坡、南韓)與四小虎(泰國、菲律賓、馬來西亞、印尼)等八國大盤與各產業股價資料檢視:(1)產業股價報酬率是否直接影響大盤未來報酬率;(2)產業股價報酬率是否透過總體經濟指標,影響大盤未來報酬率。主要實證研究方法採用誤差修正模型,相較於最小平方法,此模型可以避免假性迴歸之情形,同時考慮多個變數間的長期均衡關係與短期動態調整。除可以直接分析產業股價報酬率對大盤未來報酬率的影響,亦可利用因果關係檢定探討產業股價報酬率如何透過總體經濟指標,影響大盤未來超額報酬率,即間接影響效果。 本文發現台灣部分產業報酬率,對未來大盤超額報酬率具有直接或間接影響;至於其他七國,亦有相似情況,顯示投資人無法即時解讀產業資訊對未來總體經濟的影響,導致產業資訊於產業與大盤間緩慢擴散。
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協力治理、網絡結構與政策擴散: 以中國大陸森林認證政策為例 / Examining collaborative governance, network structure & policy diffusion: the case of forest certification policy in China

謝儲鍵, Hsieh, Chu Chien Unknown Date (has links)
面對全球氣候急遽變遷的挑戰下,各國政府對於環境治理議題高度的重視與 關切。在1992年京都議定書制定後,國家透過彼此的規範制約,期望可減少二 氧化碳的排放與環境的破壞。然而,正式權威途徑的執行,對於經濟發展與環境 永續的趨避衝突,卻不見預期效益。爾後,森林認證概念倡議後,希冀以市場途 徑作為國際規範,進入各國的創新管道。而第一個透過非政府組織建立的FSC體系,在2001年經由WWF進入中國大陸推展認證項目。只是,西方的運作思維與原則框架,在中國大陸終究遭遇到體制與管理上的困境。2008年後,中國大陸政府除了主導國家體系CFCC外,也與PEFC在2014年正式達成互認的成果。本研究試圖從政策改變前與後,以兩個階段分析行動者協力合作的情況,網 絡互動與體系採用的擴散情況。 研究結果分為兩個部分,首先就問卷統計數據來看協力與體系採用的相關性。對於FSC而言,治理與規範性是行動者選擇採用與否的重要因素。也就是行動者選擇FSC是因為重視認證資源的獲取、非正式關係的信任度與公開透明的正式溝通管道。而對於PEFC而言,治理因素同樣重要,而受到行動者支持的是相互性因數。傘型認證體制的特性,共同分享資訊、資源,使得政策場域中的行動者支持 PEFC。然而,對於CFCC而言並沒有太大的差異性。而在協力與網絡互動的分析上,自主性成為影響的因數。代表政策場域中的行動者,重視管理協調與主導政策制定討論的過程。 第二,對於擴散因數與體系採用的相關檢定。對FSC而言,社會化是重要 的關鍵。政策制定行動者考慮的是體系鄰近性、市場偏好、企業喜好與國際組織 的支持。而採用CFCC的行動者,同樣認為社會化重要。表示,利益方瞭解這是一個市場遊戲,而CFCC得到PEFC的互認後,對國家體系保持肯定態度。然而,競爭因素與採用CFCC也具有顯著性。表示行動者瞭解在中國大陸,政府透過管制帶來的競爭情勢,因此選擇了CFCC體系。 第三,就社會網絡分析數據分析,來看組織協力與體系採用關係。以程度中 心性來看,在資源與專業知識面向,皆是從國際組織轉向政府部門。在影響力層 面,國際組織甚至在第二階段便消失。而正式途徑的合作,以政府及國際組織為 兩大群體。但在第二階段,政府集中性更高,而國際組織則愈趨降低。包括在信 任度上,國際非政府組織也是下降的情況。在結構洞分析方面,第一階段的資源 掮客是一個多元組織的分佈,到的第二階段則單一化,國際體系成為傳達訊息的 角色。在影響力方面,第二階段主要是政府的角色成為掮客,而國際組織傳達影 響力的功能消失。而在信度度方面,第二階段發現國際非政府組織與企業,反而 更突顯他們在非正式關係網絡中的掮客位置。影響信任網絡的因素,分析發現政 策制定過程的資訊分享是關鍵原因。 本論文認為國際規範不僅建立在行動者的合作上,更需要結合地方組織,透 過社區力量建立由下而上的互動網絡。尤其第一階段,中國大陸需要藉由國際力 量,協助國內政策制定。因此,給予行動一個大鳴大放的空間與環境。第二階段, 受到協商過程的困境,而形成權力收回的情況。再者,中國大陸對於非政治敏感 議題,並非完全恪守政治命令而行,來決定政策發展的方向。相反的,政府可相 對釋出部分的自主性給國際組織。然而,當遭遇話語權問題時,便會透過管制途 徑收回權力,是一種「妥協式的管制協力」。而擴散的效應則是源於政策場域中, 行動者對於政策的學習與社會化而成。本研究透過微觀的實證資料,對中國大陸 協力、擴散與網絡互動研究有興趣的學者,提供另一個角度的解釋。總結來說, 國際規範透過非政府組織的「非正式途徑」,從國外帶入國內,並同時垂直向上 與向下影響中央政府的決策,及提升草根的公民力量。以中國大陸經驗反思國際 政策治理理論,重構對於開發中國家的「迴力鏢效應 2.0」模式。 / While facing the challenge of global climate change, each country puts much emphasis on environmental governance issues urgently. Since the Kyoto Protocol declared in 1992, the effective approach to resolve environmental crisis aims to regulate environmental standards and reduce emission of carbon dioxide through various air, forest and water management. However, the management efficiency is not obvious to enhance the sustainable target by formal authorities because of the conflict of economic development and environmental sustainability. The forest certification mechanism is an innovative business strategy to implement international norms into domestic governance. Particularly, FSC is successfully getting into China to develop systems through the strong support from international organizations and enterprises. On the other hand, FSC also confronted many obstacles in regulatory institution and management difficulties from Chinese registration and standard laws. Meanwhile, Chinese governments dominated in national system (CFCC) which had recognized with PEFC in 2014. This research analysis focused on the development of collaboration, network interaction and system adoption in two stages of policy change. First, the statistical findings show that norm and governance factors are significant to actors in adoption of FSC which means that the policy makers emphasize on the resource, informal trust relationships and transparent formal communication. Also, governance is important to actors to adopt PEFC systems. Another influential factor is mutuality that actors prefer the umbrella mechanism of PEFC to share information and resources with more flexible institutions. Otherwise, the correlation of interval variable of collaboration and network interaction, the analysis shows that autonomy is the influential factor to affect the collaborative relationships among actors in policy domain. On the other side, the interactive relationship is not significantly correlated to system adoption and diffusion. Second, about the results of diffusion and system adoption, socialization is a crucial element to support FSC because of system approximation, market preferences and INGO support. To CFCC adopters, socialization is also a significant factor to them which means that they understand the certification system is a global market game. After CFCC recognized with PEFC, policy-domain actors approve CFCC. Meanwhile, competition is a considerable dimension to actors by regulatory approach by central governments. Finally, based on network analysis of centrality, the high-central actors transformed to governmental actors from international NGOs in the second stage. Meanwhile, INGOs disappeared in influential factor. As for formal collaborative relationship, the public sectors and INGOs are two main groups. However, the public sectors are more central, but INGO are more peripheral. Also, the trust centrality of INGOs descends since CFCC and PEFC recognized. Of the structural-constraint analysis, the resource brokers are multiple in the first stage, but more homogeneous to public sector then. In policy-influence dimension, the governmental organizations are still main brokers in the second stage, and INGOs disappeared. The trust brokers are INGO and private sectors that highlight their informal relationships in the broker network. The Chinese governments release the approach of “airing views freely” to INGOs and multinational corporations in the first stage, and take back the autonomous right in second one because of “political baselines”. In conclusion, this research argues that collaborative governance not only requires the legitimacy of international norms and rules implemented to domestic markets, but also integrates more local actors in policy-making process to enhance the efficiency. Chinese governmental actors are willing to cooperate with others by releasing more power and autonomy. However, they also take back the power while they lose the power of discourse which means that it is “negotiable regulation and collaboration”. Moreover, the research results reform the “Boomerang Effect 2.0” to rethink about another vertical effect of INGOs power bringing into domestic central governments and local civil society.

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