在生態學與生物學上，物種數常作為生物多樣性的指標，以估計單一群體物種數為例，較知名的方法首推Good (1953)以在樣本中出現一次的物種為基礎，提出的物種數估計方法堪稱的先驅，隨後許多文獻延伸Good的想法，發展出許多的估計方法，例如Burham and Overton (1978)的摺刀估計法，Chao and Lee (1992)則以涵蓋機率方式估計。相對而言，兩群體的共有物種數的研究少有人探討，目前以Chao et al. (2000)的估計式較為知名。 本研究參考Good (1953)提出估計未發現物種出現機率的想法，估計未發現共有物種的機率，並以Burham and Overton (1978)中應用摺刀法估計物種數的概念，建立一階摺刀估計式與變異數，且另行以多項分配公式推導變異數估計式，進行電腦模擬與實際資料驗證並與Chao et al. (2000)提出的共有物種估計式比較。最後根據Rasmussen and Starr (1979)以抽樣成本建立最適停止規則的概念，應用於本研究所提出的估計式，並經由電腦模擬找出抽樣成本與物種分佈均勻程度的關聯，可作為設定停止規則的依據。 / The number of species is often used to measure the biodiversity of a population in ecology and biology. Good (1953) proposed a famous estimate for the number of species based on the probability of unseen species. Subsequently, many studies applied Good’s idea to create new estimation methods, For example, the Jackknife estimate by Burham and Overton (1978), and the estimate by using the sample coverage probability in Chao and Lee (1992) are two famous examples. However, not many studies focus on estimating the number of shared species of two populations, except the method by Chao et al. (2000). In this study, we modify Good’s idea and extend the Jackknife method of Burham and Overton (1978) to develop the estimate for the number of shared species of two populations. In addition, we also establish the variance formula of the estimator by using the multinomial distribution. Subsequently, we use computer simulation and real data sets to evaluate the proposed method, and compare them with the estimator by Chao et al. (2000). Finally, we adapt the idea of optimal stopping rule by Rasmussen and Starr (1979) and combine it with the proposed jackknife estimate. We found that using the sampling cost as the stopping rule is a feasible approach for estimating the number of shared species.

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科学研究費補助金 研究種目:基盤研究(C)(2)14550735 課題番号: 研究代表者:森 英利 研究期間:2002-2003年度

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科学研究費補助金 研究種目:基盤研究(C) 課題番号:08610079 研究代表者:石井 澄 研究期間:1996-1998年度

在全球化價值鏈垂直分工的趨勢下，台灣企業大多扮演的是代工角色，但在低價競爭的模式下，代工產業必須考慮下一階段轉型策略思考，而品牌經營的轉型是目前許多代工廠商期待的策略方向。本研究以居家照護醫療器材領導廠商的立場，由品牌推廣的角度思考以策略聯盟合作進入新市場/新產品，並針對以下問題進行研究： 　1.　在自有品牌經營型態的架構下，進入市場的策略計畫為何？ 　2.　為達到策略計畫的目標，如何選擇當地的合作對象與合作模式？ 　3.　如何評估合作模式之成效？ 　　首先藉由外部產業分析、內部資源能力評估，確認這個新市場是否能夠符合企業成長的需求，規劃新產品進入新市場的產品定位及行銷策略。再以SWOT分析進行整合，找出環境之主要威脅且企業資源不足之處，以策略聯盟合作方式予以彌補。針對合作對象的選擇，主要考量本身對於夥伴的條件需求、對方與本身合作的動機、與此策略聯盟合作是否能夠符合雙方需求而定。並擬定策略聯盟合作的目標，以雙贏的4P行銷策略，相互提供知識基礎的資源，作為主要合作模式。最後以量化指標檢視是否達成原訂目標。 　　本研究藉由理論於實務上的應用，希望能發揮具策略性思考的價值，並且提出一具體可行的合作模式，協助廠商進入新市場並推廣與建立品牌。

1993年1月13日在法國巴黎簽署之「禁止化學武器公約」（The Chemical Weapons Convention，CWC），不但規定銷毀現存所有類別的化學武器，並且在嚴格的國際管制下，採取嚴密之查核措施，以完全銷毀研製化學武器相關設備；對於用以製造成化學武器之原料及其前驅物質的貿易也有訂定詳細規約，期能終極達成全面消滅化學武器之目標。2003年5月30日，美國布希總統宣佈成立「防擴散安全倡議」（Proliferation Security Initiative，PSI），其目的亦在更有效的防止大規模毀滅性武器(Weapon of Mass Destruction，WMD)之擴散並避免落入邪惡軸心國家或恐怖份子之手。 化學武器也被稱為「窮國的原子彈」，因其發展簡易、製造費用較為低廉，故國際間化學武器的擴散對國際和平與安全之威脅已遠超核子武器或生物武器；我國雖躋身全球前11名化工國，但因中共的阻撓，迄今仍然無法成為「禁止化學武器公約」的締約國，但不能據此理由，自外於國際社會對此問題之關注與掌握，本論文即以「禁止化學武器公約」為研究重點，期提供未來觀察相關發展之參考。 / “The Chemical Weapons Convention”（CWC） signature in Paris on January 13, 1993 required all the existing chemical weapons be demolished and a strict inspection measure be taken under the strict international supervision and control to completely destroy all the related facilities and equipment used to make chemical weapons; It also stipulates in detail on the trade of raw materials used to make chemical weapons so that the ultimate goal of total annihilation of chemical weapons can be reached. On May 30, 2003, President George Bush Jr. announced the establishment of “Proliferation Security Initiative”(PSI) with an aim to further effectively prevent from the proliferation of “Weapons of Mass Destruction ”(WMD) and minimize the chance to let them fall in the hands of the evil axis countries or international terrorists. Chemical weapons are also dubbed as“the nuclear bomb of the poor nations”because they are easy to develop and the cost of producing them are relatively low. Therefore, the proliferation of chemical weapons in the world has posed a far more severe threat than that of nuclear or biological weapons. Although our country has been in the top 11 chemical engineering countries in the world, we are still not able to be one of the signatories of “the Chemical Weapons Convention” as a result of the political interference from China. However despite this adverse situation, we should not use this as an excuse to exclude ourselves from the concerns and control of the international community on this issue. Therefore, this paper focuses mainly on “The Chemical Weapons Convention”, hoping to provide a significant reference for future observation and the development of the related issues.

我國行政院在1982年即訂定《行政院所屬各機關民意調查作業要點》，透過社會科學研究方法的運用，瞭解相關人員對政府施政之意見，以作為政策研擬、評估及提升服務品質與機關內部管理等之參考。隨著1987年宣布解嚴，以及後續政黨政治、公職選舉、媒體發展等等因素，使得民意調查的應用更為廣泛，並且成為台灣民主政治發展歷程中相當重要的一環。同一時期，Sidney Blumenthal於1980年出版《永無止盡選戰》(The Permanent Campaign)一書，指出民選首長當選之後，即不斷為連任作準備，為了達到此一目的，不僅過去的輔選團隊會隨著進入到白宮擔任政治顧問的角色，並且選戰思維也會影響著民選首長的決策作為，讓選戰模式變成是一種治理方式，當中最明顯的特點就是民意調查的執行與應用。 台灣從解嚴之後，選舉次數亦十分地頻繁，從地方到中央，從民意代表到行政首長，儼然已經形成一個相當完整的職涯歷程。為探求我國民選首長就任之後，是否會藉由民意調查機制協助他們解決問題並進行相關的決策，本研究透過次級資料分析法、深度訪談法、民意調查法，針對我們地方政府的民意調查執行及應用情形進行調查。研究發現我國地方政府在民意調查的執行部分受到行政程序及財政狀況之影響，因此不若選舉時期來的有彈性。其次，在民意調查機制的應用部份，受訪者表示對於政策環境的釐清相當具有幫助，可以協助他們決定政策方案的採行。最後，為了瞭解「從眾效應」策略性民調結果的公佈是否會影響到一般民眾既有的認知，本研究透過兩階段民意調查的實驗，分別針對雲林縣、台中市的民眾進行電話民意調查，依據差異分析顯示，無法證實民意調查結果的公佈的確對於民眾既有的認知會造成改變。 / In the field of public opinion polls initiated in the 1930s, seeking collective preferences of citizens and customers for the government and the business sector by means of mail, telephone, or face-to-face interviews has brought about a significant impact on human political and business life in the 20th century. In the 1980, Sidney Blumenthal published the book "The Permanent Campaign". In this book, Blumenthal explained how the changes in American politics from old-style patronage and party organization to that based on the modern technology of computer driven polling created a fundamentally new system. The concept of a permanent campaign describes the focus which recent presidents have given to electoral concerns during their tenures in office, with the distinction between the time they have spent governing and the time they have spent campaigning having become blurred and political consultants had replaced the party bosses and brought with them a new model by which campaigning became the forms of governing. Is campaigning becoming the forms of governing in Taiwan? To answer this questions, this dissertation is beginning with the theory discussion of the perspective of the “permanent campaign” and the “democratic governance”. Then, with the help of the method of interview and secondary data analysis, author discuss the application and limitation of the public opinion poll using in the governance of the local government. Public opinion poll can help the elected leader to find out the problems but it is limited by financial condition of the government itself. The author also designed a two-stage public opinion poll and divided the respondents into experimental group and contrast group. The author hypothesizes that respondents will change their choices because of the impact of “Conformity” and used an evidence-based analysis to testify the hypothesis. Finally, the author gives his conclusion and suggestion.

京都大学 / 0048 / 新制・課程博士 / 博士(理学) / 甲第22031号 / 理博第4535号 / 新制||理||1651(附属図書館) / 京都大学大学院理学研究科地球惑星科学専攻 / (主査)准教授 重 尚一, 教授 石川 裕彦, 教授 秋友 和典 / 学位規則第4条第1項該当 / Doctor of Science / Kyoto University / DFAM

京都大学 / 0048 / 新制・課程博士 / 博士(法学) / 甲第17846号 / 法博第152号 / 新制||法||145(附属図書館) / 30666 / 京都大学大学院法学研究科法政理論専攻 / (主査)教授 髙木 光, 教授 岡村 忠生, 教授 仲野 武志 / 学位規則第4条第1項該当 / Doctor of Laws / Kyoto University / DFAM