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  • About
  • The Global ETD Search service is a free service for researchers to find electronic theses and dissertations. This service is provided by the Networked Digital Library of Theses and Dissertations.
    Our metadata is collected from universities around the world. If you manage a university/consortium/country archive and want to be added, details can be found on the NDLTD website.
21

動態系統與生育率及死亡率的估計 / Using dynamic system to model fertility and mortality rates

李玢 Unknown Date (has links)
人口統計學家在傳統上習慣將人口的種種變化視為時間的函數,皆試圖以決定型(deterministic)的函數來刻劃,例如:1825年Gompertz提出的死力法則、1838年Verhulst以羅吉斯函數描述人口成長。近年則傾向於逐項(item-by-item)分析各種可能因素,例如:1992年Lee-Carter提出的死亡率模型、目前英國實務上使用的Renshaw與Haberman(2003)提出改善Lee-Carter模型的Reduction Factor模型、加入世代(Cohort)因素的Age-Period-Cohort模型等。但台灣地區近年來生育率與死亡率皆不斷下降,且有隨著時間而變化加劇的傾向,使得以往使用的模型不易捕捉變化。 本文以另一個角度思考生育與死亡變化,將台灣人口視為一隨時間變化的動態系統,使用微分方程來刻劃,找出此動態系統的背後所隱含的規則。人口動態系統的變化,主要來源是出生、死亡與遷移,在建模的過程中,我們先各別針對其中一項,在其他條件不變的情況下,以常微分方程建模,之後再同時考慮各項變動,以偏微分方程建模,找出台灣人口變化的模型。在本文中,我們先介紹使用微分方程模型分別配適與估計出生與死亡。 由台灣地區人口統計資料顯示,不論總生育率或各年齡組的死亡率都有逐漸下降的趨勢,但是每年之間的震盪很大,因此我們提出「二次逼近法」,從出生或死亡對時間的變化率與曲度來估計生育率與死亡率,對於此種震盪幅度較大的資料,可以得到頗精確的估計。唯在連續幾年資料呈現近似線性上升或下降處,非線性的模型容易出現較大的估計誤差,針對此問題我們也提出一些可能的修正方法,以降低整體的模型誤差率。 / Conventionally the change of population is considered as a function of time and described by using deterministic functions. The well-known examples are Gompertz law of mortality (1825) and Verhulst’s logistic growth model (1838). Recently demographers favor stochastic models when analyzing factors in an item-by-item fashion. Since 1992, Lee-Carter model is a most commonly used stochastic model in demographic studies. But empirical studies indicate that the rapid declines in both fertility and mortality rates are against the assumptions of Lee-Carter model. In this study we treat Taiwan population as a dynamic system which changes over time and characterize it by differential equations. Since the changes are from birth, death and migration, we first separately build models using ordinary differential equations. Afterwards the model of Taiwan population can be built by using partial differential equations considering the three main factors simultaneously. Total fertility and age-specific mortality rates in Taiwan decline over time but with shakes between years. Consequently we propose‘parabola approximation method’and apply it to velocity and acceleration of birth or death to solve the differential equations of Taiwan fertility and mortality. Empirical study shows the method allows us to get accurate estimates of mortality and fertility when the data change a lot in a short period of time. But we found the model may over-fit the data at some time point where the function does not seem to be very continuous.
22

臺灣地區婦女教育、就業、生育及人口流動與離婚率之探討 / Women Education、employment、fertility and divorce rate in

曾長麗, Tseng Tsang-Li Unknown Date (has links)
本研究之主要目的在探討臺灣地區婦女之教育、就業、生育及人口流動與 離婚率的關係,並預測未來五年之離婚率。 本研究以臺灣地區廿三縣 市為樣本,資料來源為「中華民國統計年鑑」及「中華民國臺閩地區人口 統計」。以皮爾遜積差相關係數、單因子變異數分析及多元迴歸探討婦女 教育、就業、生育及人口流動與離婚率之關係;並以自我迴歸整合移動平 均模式來分析預測未來五年之離婚率。本研究的主要發現為:1.在婦女 教育方面:高中及大學教育女性比例愈高的縣市,其離婚率也愈高;而國 中畢女性比例、小學畢女性比例及婦女識字率,則與離婚率無關。2.在 婦女就業方面:婦女整體就業率與離婚率無關。但若從行業別而言,從事 第三類行業的婦女愈多,離婚率愈高。若就職業而言,從事監督、佐理工 作之婦女愈多,離婚率愈高;而從事農、林、漁、牧、狩獵工作之婦女愈 多,離婚率則愈低。3.在生育率方面:一般生育率愈高,離婚率愈低; 並且,大專以上畢業婦女生育率也與離婚率成反比。4.在人口流動方面 :人口總移動率與離婚率成反比。5.在迴歸分析方面:大學畢女性比例 、高中畢女性比例、監督佐理人員女性比例、農林漁牧工作人員女性比例 、一般生育率、大專畢業育齡婦女生育率、及人口總移動率等七個指標均 對離婚率有顯著影響。6.未來五年之離婚率,呈逐年上升趨勢。
23

中共一胎化政策及其影響之研究 / Studies of Chinese One Child Policy: Consequence and Influence

郭克誠 Unknown Date (has links)
中國是世界上人口最多的國家,公元2000年已達12.6億人,占全球的五分之一強,因此,中國的人口政策及其成敗受到全球普遍的關注。其人口政策50餘年來的發展,呈現著左右搖擺的反覆現象。   1971年~1998年實施計劃生育政策期間,人口效益共計少生了3.38億人;經濟效益則為國家和家庭節省了7.4萬億元;社會效益有:1.減緩社會的就業壓力;2.促進教育事業的發展;3.改善健康狀況;4.提高婦女地位,以及其他的資源效益和環境效益等等。   計劃生育的負面效應則有:1.「四.二.一」綜合症;2.人口高齡化;3.獨生子女教養問題;4.性別比失調;5.人口素質逆淘汰;6.徵兵困難;7.體壇後繼乏人;8.幹部與群眾之間矛盾日益尖銳。   對大陸未來人口政策可能走向的研析:   甲案為:全大陸普遍允許雙方為獨生子女的夫婦可以生育二孩,此方案影響最小。城鎮夫婦雙方為獨生子女的概率將從目前不到1%升至2020 年的40%,農村則一直為1%。據預測,2010年總人口為13.8億,2040年達到峰值15.5 億後進入負增長,2050年減至15.2億。   乙案為:全大陸城鄉只要一方是獨生子女的夫婦(包括雙方都是獨生子女)可以生育二孩。此方案影響較大,據估計,城鎮夫婦中一方為獨生子女從2000年的15%增至2020年的87%,農村則從1%增加到19%。2010年總人口為13.88億,峰值在2045年將接近15.9億。   丙為折衷方案,即在城鎮允許雙方是獨生子女的夫婦、在農村允許一方是獨生子女的夫婦可以生二孩,影響介於甲乙案。即2010年為13.77~13.88億,峰值在2040~2045年約為15.5~15.9億然後進入負增長。 / Presently, China is the most populated country in the world. Its population has reached 1.26 billion in 2000-more than one fifth of the worldwide population. As a result, the outcome of China’s population policy has become an issue of global concern. However, China has been swung back and forth on its "birth control" policy in the past fifty years.   During 1971~1998, when Chinese government enforced the "one child" policy, the birth rate has effectively reduced the population growth by 338 million, and a saving of a total of $74 zillion dollars for the government and the people. The society also benefits on: (1.) less pressure and competition on the employment ; (2.) more educational resources for the people ; (3.) more improvement on health condition ; ( 4.) a promotion of social status for women ; (5.) better distribution of other resource and preservation of the environment.   The downsides from the practice of the "one child" policy are: (1.) a syndrome from the [4-2-1] family structure ; (2.) aging of the population; (3.) difficulty in discipline the single child of the family; (4.) inappropriate gender ratio ; (5.) reverse selection of population quality ; (6.) difficulty in military draft ; (7) inferior outplays in athletic performance ; (8) confliction between birth control administration officers and the general public.   Based on the research, three population policies China may adapt in the future. To be qualified to have two children,   A) For families in both villages and cities, allow parent who were both from single child families to have a second child. However, this scheme has the least impact with a predict population of 1.38 billion in 2010. In the long term, the low rate of birth will create a peak population of 1.55 billion followed by a negative population growth after 2040.   B) For families in both villages and cities, parents who were either or both from single child family are allowed to have a second child. However, this scheme has most impact with a predict population of 1.388 billion in 2010. In the long term, the low rate of birth will create a peak population of 1.59 billion followed by a negative population growth after 2045.   C) For families in cities, parents who were both from single child families, and for families in villages, parents who are either or both from single child family, are allowed to have a second child. However, this scheme has the mediate impact with a predict population of 1.377~1.388 billion in 2010. In the long term, the low rate of birth will create a peak population of 1.55~1.59 billion followed by a negative population growth after 2040~2045.
24

成年未婚媽媽婚姻與生育之抉擇 / The decision-making of marriage and childbearing among adult never-married mothers.

鄭雅云, Cheng Ya Yun Unknown Date (has links)
本研究採取質性研究方法針對成年未婚媽媽之婚姻與生育決策進行探討,了解成年未婚媽媽從未婚懷孕初始至生育之經驗與感受、分析決定未婚生育之因素,以及彙整未婚生育歷程之需求。透過本研究期待可瞭解:一、探討成年未婚媽媽未婚生育之經驗與感受;二、分析成年未婚媽媽婚姻與生育抉擇之因素;三、整理成年未婚媽媽未婚生育之需求,以利社會工作實務相關參考。本研究使用立意取樣與滾雪球抽樣策略,與台北市大孜婦女中心、台北市文山婦女中心合作,選取符合本研究設定之研究對象參與研究,並以滾雪球策略以研究者自身之網絡邀請受訪者,歸納研究結果提出建議,提供社會工作實務參考。 依據研究問題與目的,研究者邀請北部地區十二位成年未婚媽媽進行一對一的深度訪談,研究結果茲分述如下: 一、成年未婚媽媽決定生育之因素包含「避免殘害生命」、「生理因素」,以及「情感因素」。(一)生理因素:擔憂超過生育年齡、擔憂孩子健康狀況不佳、擔憂墮胎對本身健康不佳。(二)情感因素:欲生下喜歡之人的孩子與希冀生育可綁住兩人的關係。 二、決定留養之因素則包含下列五項:對孩子難以割捨的情感、孩子是感情的寄託、渴望為人父母、認為自行撫養對孩子較佳,以及養育是負責任的行為。 三、成年未婚媽媽婚姻決定之因素主要包括兩大部份:「考量婚姻之成本」與「考量婚姻之效益」,前者包含個人因素中的渴望自由、避免無法融入對方家庭、對婚姻形式不認同、對婚姻角色不認同、對婚姻沒有信心以及避免與不適任之男友結婚;後者則包含不需害怕他人眼光、獲得家人諒解,以及可以給孩子一個完整的家。 四、成年未婚媽媽於未婚生育之時,主要的需求可分為以下四點:害怕他人眼光、徬徫無助之心態、財務困難與親職無法負荷。 五、研究發現成年未婚媽媽在婚姻與生育之決定上,含有社會交換的觀點,並且受到婦女成年早期發展任務之影響;其次,在面對困難時,亦符合生活模式所提出會先對壓力源進行評估,並尋找環境之資源以利交流調適。
25

實質與貨幣內生成長模型的稅制改革政策 / Tax reform policies in real and monetary models of endogenous growth

李國豪, Lee, Kuo Hao Unknown Date (has links)
本論文在實質與貨幣內生成長模型中探討政府租稅的效果,而其中又以稅制改革政策為主角。 在第二章中,我們將內生生育率的概念引入了Romer (1986)的實質經濟成長模型,並說明當政府在維持稅收中立的原則下將所得稅制轉換為消費稅制時,將可能對經濟成長與社會福利有所傷害。而後我們也提供了一些數值模擬以支持我們的論點。至於第三章,我們將勞動供給內生的概念引入一個有預付現金限制(Cash-in-Advance)的貨幣經濟成模型,在本章中我們得到了所謂「Mundell-Tobin Effect」與「消費稅中立性」的成立與否,將取決於政府稅收的用途;接著我們把焦點放在資本的生產外部性與消費稅所造成的扭曲上並導出最適貨幣政策;最後,在維持政府的支出水準下,我們得到將消費稅制轉換為通膨稅制時,將對經濟成長有正面的效果。 / The dissertation provides a theoretical framework to investigate the effects of tax policies, especially the tax reform, in real and monetary models of endogenous growth. In Chapter 2, by shedding light on the endogenous fertility choice, we set up a simple Romer (1986)-type endogenous growth model and show that, in a departure from the existing literature, a switch from a decrease in income tax rate to an increase in consumption tax rate so as to ensure a revenue-neutrality could be harmful, rather than favorable, to both growth and welfare. In addition, we also conduct a simple numerical analysis to investigate the conditions in which the negative effect on growth and welfare occurs. As to the monetary model, an endogenous growth model with endogenous labor-leisure choice and cash-in-advance (CIA) constraint which is only imposed on consumption is established in Chapter 3. Through the model, we found that the Mundell-Tobin effect and the validity of consumption tax neutrality depend on the usages of tax revenue. Next, focusing on the distortions due to the production externality of capital and consumption tax, the optimal monetary policy is also derived. Finally, we show that a switch from consumption taxation to inflation taxation to finance a given stream of government expenditure, namely tax switch, enhances economic growth through the increase in labor supply in a CIA economy and the qualitative equivalence between MIU and CIA approaches is still valid.
26

台灣地區大學學雜費調漲對生育率的影響

洪文娟 Unknown Date (has links)
台灣地區在2002年時總生育率已降至1.33,而淨繁殖率為0.63,此種低於替代水準的生育率如果繼續下去,台灣地區的人口成長將於20-30年後,達成人口零成長並轉為負成長;生育率持續降低將造成人口老化,對國家經濟造成負面影響。 而影響生育率的因素很多,鑑於現代家庭在子女養育費用上的支出日益增加,尤以教育費用佔養育成本之比例最大,中低收入的家庭籌措教育費用的負擔,可能比生活開支更為沉重;尤其近年來政府廣開大學之門,但高等教育的經費並沒有比例的提升,因此不論公立或私立學校,從政府所得的補助相形減少;而大學學歷已成為基本的學位,可以預期未來幾乎每個人都會念大學,因此當大學學雜費調漲,將使父母養育子女成本增加,所以要思考是否因為養育成本的提高,而降低了生育子女的意願,使得台灣地區生育率年年下降。 本文的研究目的,主要在探討佔教育費用相當大比重的大學學雜費調漲,對台灣地區生育率的影響,並就其他影響台灣地區生育率的主要因素加以分析。以下為本論文之主要內容:第一章緒論,介紹本文研究背景與動機、研究目的與研究架構及研究限制。第二章文獻回顧,探討影響生育率因素的相關文獻,並就大學學雜費之文獻加以分別整理並予以說明。第三章,分析台灣地區生育率與大學學雜費調漲之變化;為了研究大學學雜費調漲對台灣地區生育率之影響,必須對近年來台灣地區生育率之變化及大學學雜費制度之變化作進一步之了解。第四章是研究方法,在本章中,將介紹本論文的資料來源、研究方法與實證模型及變數說明,以檢視大學學雜費調漲對台灣地區生育率的影響。第五章,就實證結果加以分析說明,第六章是本研究之結論與政策建議。 本文以1991年至2002年台灣地區23個縣市之追蹤資料為研究對象,經由固定效果模型的估計結果發現,大學學雜費對台灣地區生育率的影響有顯著的負相關;而其他影響台灣地區生育率的主要因素,如台灣地區各縣市家庭所得、失業率(尤以男性失業率為顯著)、婦女教育程度等均呈現顯著的負向影響,台灣地區嬰兒死亡率亦呈現負向影響但並不顯著,而婦女25 – 39歲年齡組群佔該縣市15歲以上婦女總人數比例,對台灣地區生育率的影響,呈現顯著的正向關係。 依本研究結果顯示,大學學學雜費是影響台灣地區生育率相當重要的因素,且教育學費與提升生育率皆屬於政府的政策,政府應該高度正視此問題並有所作為。至於控制其他因素後之地區特質效果,`顯示台灣地區之生育率,以東部地區為最高,南部地區最低;各縣市之特質效果則以新竹縣為最高、高雄市最低,可能與原住民比例、人口外移、城鄉差距或其他人文因素有關。因此,如何縮小城鄉差距,平衡人口分佈,使經濟均衡發展,也是值得政府思考與正視的問題。 關鍵詞:大學學雜費、生育率、固定效果模型、台灣地區
27

從新加坡經驗審思台灣的移民政策

徐鳳旋 Unknown Date (has links)
少子化是目前台灣面臨的一大危機,從歷史脈絡來看,台灣屬於標準的移民社會,然而,因早年戒嚴等政治因素使我國對於入出境人流管制相當嚴格,同時亦不重視移民政策,直至近年來外籍配偶及大陸配偶人數大量增加,政府單位逐漸注意此一新興社會現象。 同時,台灣與新加坡皆為亞洲四小龍成員,在人口結構來講,同屬以華人為主體的多元族群國家,兩者皆面臨全球化衝擊,以及面臨國土資源不足、生育率逐年降低、人口老化等社會與人口結構改變的隱憂。而新加坡對移民政策的重視則遠超過我國,其相關法令的制定、多元的教育、豐富的獎勵刺激移民與生育都是值得我們所學習的。 回顧其發展過程,新加坡的移民政策與法令也讓社會產生程度不一的反彈,這些優缺利弊都是讓我國借鑒的範例,藉他山之石,檢視我國移民法令的侷限,為了有效刺激外來人口移入與降低不同文化產生的衝突,新加坡經驗是值得參考的對象。 / Low birth rate is one of the major challenges faced by Taiwanese government nowadays. Taiwan can be categorized as a typical immigrant society from the view of history. However, the immigration control was very strict during the early days due to political issues and the implementation of martial laws. The immigration policies have been ignored for long until the population of foreign and mainland spouse rose tremendously hence gradually caught the attention of Taiwanese government. Taiwan and Singapore are both viewed as the members of Four Asian Tigers. Both islandsare composed by multi-racial population and with Chinese as majority. Meanwhile, both nations face the challenges such as impact of globalization, relatively insufficient domestic resources, low birth rate, and aging population. Singapore government takes immigration policies more seriously than Taiwan, the regulations of laws, educational diversity, and abundant rewards for encouraging immigration and birth rate of Singapore are worth to learn from. Singapore’s immigration policies and regulations also aroused backlash from the public. The pros and cons of their policies should also be taken into considerations while making the proper policies for Taiwan. The experience of Singapore would benefit on the spurring of immigration to Taiwan and easing the conflicts result from cultural differences.
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臺灣各縣市平均地價對其生育率的影響 / The effect of average land price on fertility rate in Taiwan

廖珮郁, Liao, Pei Yu Unknown Date (has links)
目前超低生育率現象,已對整體社會的走向、國家經濟的發展、生活思維的方式等都產生了相當大的影響。換言之,生育不僅是婦女本身的問題,它與國際社會的動態、經濟的全球化、企業的國際化、現代的子女教育、社會的性別教育、老年人的護理等都有著相當緊密的關係。因此,本研究的主要目的,在於探討臺灣各縣市房地產價格對生育率的影響,並瞭解臺灣生育率持續下降的癥結所在,找出可能影響生育率下降的主要因素加以分析。 本文利用臺灣23個縣市別的追蹤資料,涵蓋期間為2000年至2008年,採雙因子固定效果模型進行實證分析。估計結果發現,在控制其他變數不變之下,在生育率遞延二期時,臺灣各縣市平均地價對生育率為負影響,且在生育率遞延三期時更為顯著,兩者之間的資源排擠效果更為強大。而其他影響臺灣生育率的主要因素,如:各縣市農業人口比例、各縣市粗結婚率、與外國人結婚人數比例皆呈顯著正影響;臺灣各縣市平均地價、原住民人數比例及婦女勞動參與率皆呈顯著負影響。 依本研究結果顯示,房地產價格是影響臺灣生育率相當重要的因素,政府應需高度正視此問題並有所作為。建議未來政府在訂定國家發展政策時,除需研擬更多提升生育率的策略,如:降低父母生育子女的機會成本、改善學前幼托體系,以及加強減輕家庭育兒壓力的宣導工作等,並可增加控制「臺灣房地產價格」及避免房價炒作之策略,以促進國家永續發展及增強國際競爭力。 / The current low fertility rate has been a great impact on our entire social trend, the development of national economy, and the way we think. That is, fertility is not only women’s consideration, but also an issue connected closely to international society, economical globalization, internationalization of business, children education, sex education, and nursing care of the elders. As a result, the main purpose of this paper lies on the effect of average land price on fertility rate in Taiwan. This article uses the panel data of the 23 counties and cities of Taiwan from 2000 to 2008, and does the evidence-based analysis by two-factor fixed-effects model. We found that the average land price has conspicuously positive effect on the fertility rate in Taiwan. While other main factors affect the fertility rate in Taiwan such as the proportion of farm-workers, crude marriage rate, and the proportion of marriage with the foreigners have conspicuously positive effects on it; on the other hand, female labor force participation and the proportion of aborigine have conspicuously negative effects on it. According to our study, average land price is the most important factor which affects the fertility rate in Taiwan, and the government should face the problem and do something to it. When making policy, it is suggested the government may take into consideration of how to control the housing price in Taiwan and avoid housing price speculation.
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未斷乳就哺乳?中國城市雙獨家庭研究 / Only children becoming parents: dual-core family in urban China

陳君碩 Unknown Date (has links)
中國為控制龐大的人口,自1979年開始實施計劃生育政策,一轉眼已經過了30年,一群1980年前後出生的獨生子女紛紛邁入婚姻、走入家庭,形成了獨生子女相互婚配的「獨生父母」,也同時造就了有別於傳統中國「發散型」家庭結構的「四二一家庭」。 本研究以此為出發,探究「四二一家庭」結構中的新型家庭關係,並挑戰結構功能論大師帕森斯關於現代化家庭之理論。本文認為,由於夫妻雙方皆為獨生子女,父母要協助子女分擔家務不再分身乏術,三代同堂的擴大家庭將成為中國城市的主要家庭模式,並非現代化理論所認為的核心家庭為主;而在四二一家庭中,親子關係也將居於核心地位,有別於帕森斯所認為的以夫妻軸為主。 筆者於2010年5月親赴北京對10位「獨生父母」進行訪談,深入了解獨生子女從擇偶、新婚、一直到四二一家庭成形所遇到的種種情況,包括夫妻家務分工上的不適應、為人父母後的角色轉換,以及在四二一家庭中獨一無二的天倫樂。 本文最後依據中國2010年第六次人口普查結果及獨生父母的訪談內容,結合各方專家意見,對計劃生育政策做出利弊分析,並探究生父母們在邁入家庭、準備「哺乳」的過程中,對父母的依賴,究竟「斷乳」了沒。 / Abstract In order to control the colossal population in China, the Chinese Communist Party have been implementing the birth control policy since 1979.Thirty years on, more and more children born under the one-child policy have arrived at nubile age. Marriage of only sons and only daughters compose the dual-core family which is different from the traditional Chinese family structure. This text focuses on the dual-core family, to explore the new family relationships and to challenge the Modernized theory of family proposed by T. Parsons. The text is of the opinion that the extended family model with three generations will become the main family structure in urban China as opposed to the nuclear family described in the Modernized theory; the focus of the family will be on the parent-child relationship rather than the conjugal relationship Parsons suggested. The author visited Beijing in May 2010 for interviews with ten “only-child parents”, This granted deeper understanding of the range of circumstances encountered during the process of partner selection, marriage and family formation by adult only-children. These include maladaptation in housework allocation, the role switch after becoming parents and the familial relationships and happiness unique to the extended family structure. In summation, the text combined findings from the sixth Chinese national census 2010, the conducted interviews and the opinions of various specialists and scholars to comment on the pros and cons of the birth control policy and to assess the level of parental dependence of adult only-children in China and their readiness for parenthood.
30

台灣婦女教育程度與龍虎年效應對生育率之影響 / The Influence of Female Education and the Chinese Animal Zodiac on Fertility Rate in Taiwan

黃修梅, Huang, Hsiu-Mei Unknown Date (has links)
本文的主要研究目的,在於將文化因素(即龍年與虎年效果)納入生育行為的考量,以重新審視台灣生育率與婦女教育程度之間的Granger因果關係。利用台灣1952年至1994年資料進行實證的Cheng and Nwachukwu(1997)及Cheng(1999),其結論指出台灣教育程度與生育率之Granger因果關係並不顯著。本文將以該文章之實證模型為基礎,並加入代表龍年效應與虎年效應的虛擬變數以建立本文模型。 首先根據Cheng(1999)的資料與變數,利用台灣1952年至2005年之年資料,建立一個包含粗出生率、教育程度大專以上的比例、女性勞動參與率、與實質經濟成長率等四個內生變數,以及代表龍虎年效應的兩個虛擬變數之VAR模型。並以Toda and Yamamoto(1995)提出的Granger因果關係檢定,檢定台灣教育程度與生育率之間的因果關係。隨後,為增進估計的有效性,本文利用台灣地區1978年至2005年的季資料,共112個樣本進行實證研究。變數定義方面,將粗出生率替換為一般生育率,教育程度大專以上的比例替換為育齡婦女大專以上的比例。並根據上述建立之VAR模型,進行Granger因果關係檢定。 經由本文的實證研究發現,將龍年效果與虎年效果納入考量後,台灣婦女教育程度的提昇會Granger影響生育率的下降。亦即台灣婦女教育程度日益提升,是解釋生育率下降的重要因素,此結果與Cheng(1999)所提出的結果並不一致。此外,龍年與虎年對台灣的生育率分別有顯著正向與負向的影響。 / This paper tries to revisit the null hypothesis of Granger no-causality between female education and fertility rate in Taiwan, by considering the culture factors captured by Dragon and Tiger Years which might influences the fertility behavior. In addition, this study compares the primary finding with the result proposed by Cheng and Nwachukwu (1997) and Cheng (1999) which are that female education does not affect fertility rate in Taiwan. According to Cheng (1999), official time series yearly data from 1952 to 2005 provided by Taiwan government are used first, and quarterly data from 1978 to 2005 are required to improve the efficiency. This study models a 4-Variables VAR and applies Granger no-causality test proposed by Toda and Yamamoto (1995). The primary finding of this study is that there is a negative causality from female education to fertility rate in Taiwan, which is inconsistent with conclusions in Cheng (1999). In addition, culture factors do play a very important role in fertility behavior in Taiwan.

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