全球每日產出的資料量持續成長，龐大的資料量、雜亂的資料檔案格式造成資料處理的困難；此外，全球智慧型手機的出貨量持續上升，未來將會至少人手一台行動裝置，同時行動網路的效能提升將可負荷更多的資料流量，行動工作者的數量也因此逐年增加。對商業智慧系統而言，透過企業資料的分析可以發現資訊之間的關連與隱藏其中的事實，讓使用者掌握更多的知識用於決策，分析的資料來源越豐富，其可提供做為決策用的訊息就更為準確。 　　過往商業智慧透過關聯式資料庫處理資料來源及電子郵件的通知使用者，但是龐大的巨量資料遠超過前者所能有效處理的數量，進而造成對資料擷取、保存、使用、分享以及分析時的處理難度；後者對於外出的使用者來說，電子郵件僅只是收到通知而已，使用者依然得需要電腦才能觀看分析報表。 　　故本研究使用雲端運算分散儲存及運算的技術及行動裝置隨手可得的特性解決前述的兩個問題，先透過雲端資料庫加速處理巨量資料的存取並製作成資料倉儲供商業智慧使用，接著透過行動應用程式即時接收推播訊息並呈現分析報表於行動裝置上。 　　在實作中，利用非結構化資料庫進行資料的存取，比起過往的關聯式資料庫確實可以有效提升巨量資料處理的速度；透過行動裝置的報表呈現，在平板電腦有較佳的成效，在手機上則是因為螢幕大小的關係，畫面呈現效果較差，這方面則有待改善。 　　本研究透過非結構化資料庫及行動應用程式設計新的行動商業智慧解決方案，實作雛型系統，並且透過異常申報健保費用醫院為案例，進行系統整體的測試，證明其架構及運作模式之可行性。經過驗證，本系統將能提供使用者使用巨量資料做為分析數據，並且透過行動應用程式立即取得分析報表。 / The volume of daily output data continues to grow world- widely. The huge amount of data and the disorder of data format cause the difficulty of data processing. Additionally, the number of smartphone sales is continuously growing, so everyone will own at least one smartphone in the future. In the meantime, the effectiveness of mobile internet and wireless is largely improved, so it can be loaded with more data flow. Because of this phenomenon, the number of mobile workers will be increasing per year. For business intelligence systems, through the analysis of enterprise's data we can find the relevance and facts hidden in information, allowing users to acquire more knowledge for decision-making. The more data sources we analyze, the more accurate information can be used to make decision. 　　In the past, business intelligence processes data sources through relational database and uses e-mail to notify users. However, the huge amount of data exceeds the number that can be effectively processed by relational database. On account of this, it becomes difficult regarding data acquisition, storage, application, sharing, and analysis. As far as the users are concerned, they only receive notifications by emails, so they still need a computer to view the analysis report. 　　In this study, I use cloud computing technology and mobile devices to solve the two aforementioned issues. First, we speed up the process of big data in data acquisition through Hadoop Hbase, and made it into data warehouse for Business Intelligence use. Secondly, we use mobile applications to receive push messages instantly and present analysis reports. 　　In the practical work, I use NoSQL database to acquire and store data. Compared with relational database, we can indeed effectively enhance the speed of big data processing. In reports’ presentation on mobile devices, the Tablet has better user experience then the phone. The phone is displayed comparatively poorly because of its small screen. This part needs to be improved. 　　In this research, I conceive a new solution of mobile business intelligence through NoSQL database and mobile applications, and implement this method into a prototype system. Moreover, through an example of the analysis of hospitals which have anomalous health-insurance reporting expenses we can test the whole system. It proves that this system’s structure and the mode of operation are feasible. The system will be able to provide big data as the source of analysis and present reports immediately through mobile devices to users.

我國健保費用逐漸增長，進而衍生出許多健保問題，其中浮報、虛報及詐欺等三種情況，會造成許多醫療資源的浪費。然而，目前電腦檔案分析只能偵測出浮報、虛報的行為，無法偵測出詐欺情況。對於健保詐欺之偵測只能仰賴傳統隨機抽樣檢驗及人力分析，而我國健保平均一年門診審查申報量約3.5 億件，其人力的負擔非常沉重。故本研究將探討如何利用電腦工具初步判別醫事機構之費用申報情況。 本研究透過大量文獻回顧，發現美國有研究指出結合Benford’s law 與智慧型方法來進行詐欺偵測，可獲得很好的效果(Busta & Weinberg 1998)。Benford’s law 指出許多數據來源皆會呈現特定的數字頻率分佈，近年來Benford’s law 亦被應用在許多不同領域的舞弊或詐欺的審查流程中。 本研究使用Apache Hadoop 及其相關專案，建構出一個大量資料儲存分析之環境，針對大量健保申報費用資料來進行分析。此系統結合了Benford’s law 數字分析方法並運用支持向量機(Support Vector Machine)來對健保費用申報進行大規模電腦初步審查，判別該醫事機構是否有異常申報之情況發生，並將初步判別之結果提供給健保局相關稽查人員，進而做深入的審查。 本研究所建構的智慧型健保費用異常偵測模型結合了Benford’s law 衍生指標變數與實務指標變數，並利用SVM 分析健保申報費用歷史資料，產生出預判模型，之後便可藉由此模型來判別未來健保費用申報資料是否有異常情況發生。在判別異常資料方面，本研究所建構的模型其整體正確率高達97.7995%，且所有的異常申報資料皆可準確地預測出來。 因此，本研究希望能結合Benford’s law 與智慧型運算方法於健保申報異常偵測上，如此一來便可藉由電腦進行初步審查，減少因傳統隨機抽樣調查所造成的不確定性以及審核大量健保資料時過多的人力資源浪費。

隨著商業環境的快速變動，企業為因應市場快速變化，管理階層傾向於將專案規模縮小、目標明確來定義專案的範圍，以助於專案的執行，因此企業大多會執行一個以上的專案，然而專案彼此之間或多或少都會有些關聯與互動，良好的互動關係對於專案執行成效與企業均有其正面助益，因此本研究的目的在探討軟體專案特性對專案管理與專案間互動的影響之研究。 本研究以全球防毒軟體領導廠商-趨勢科技為例，其獨特的企業文化和指標性的企業管理模式，皆已成為國際型企業的典範。因此探討該公司運用雲端運算技術所成立的兩個專案進行研究，藉以探討專案特性、專案管理、專案間互動之關係。本研究經由個案訪談以及次級資料的分析探討，本研究之發現如下： 1.企業在執行軟體專案管理時，充分授權有助於激進式創新專案的開發進行。 2.領導者在軟體專案管理各階段所扮演的角色不同。當技術為外部來源時，領導者需要扮演協調溝通角色；當技術為內部來源時，領導者需要扮演技術支援角色。 3.企業在執行軟體專案管理時，會用師徒制來進行隱性知識的傳承；並利用文件管理系統來管理外顯知識。 4.當激進式創新的產品開發專案運用外部技術來源時，提供員工自我學習的空間，並透過知識分享討論會、知識管理系統、非正式溝通的多個群體協調活動，有助於專案間互動。 / In order to adapt to rapidly changing markets, cooperate managers tend to downsize the scales and define specific goals of projects for effective execution. Therefore, cooperates simultaneously deal with multiple projects which are inter-connected to each other. Good interactions benefit both projects and cooperate itself. Hence, the objective of this study is to investigate how the characteristics of software projects influence the managements and interactions of projects. The study subject is Trend Macro Incorporated, the world-wide leading company of antivirus software. Its unique culture and foremost management style have become the model example of international companies. Therefore, this study investigated two projects of this company, which apply cloud computing, to explore the relationships of the characteristics, management and interactions within and between projects. By case interview and secondary databases, the main findings of this study are listed below. 1.Enterprise in the implementation of software project management, the fully authorized to contribute to the development of radical innovation projects carried out. 2.Leader in software project management role of the different stages. When the technology to external sources, the leaders need to play the role of coordination and communication. When the technology for internal sources, leaders need to play a technical support role. 3.Enterprise in the implementation of software project management, we will use the apprenticeship system to carry out transmission of tacit knowledge; and to use document management system to manage explicit knowledge. 4.When the radical innovation of the product development project the use of external technology sources, to provide space for staff self-learning and knowledge sharing through seminars, knowledge management systems, informal communication between the various groups of coordination activities to facilitate interaction between projects.

本論文共分為六章來呈現整體架構，於以下分別敘述。 第一章是緒論，就整體論文的研究動機、問題意識、研究方法以及論文結構作一個完整的交代，得以令人快速了解論文的內容以及契機。 第二章即就雲端運算的定義、發展、特色等要素，來釐清雲端運算就何所指，以及雲端運算對於現行電腦使用關係與現行電腦犯罪規範的影響。並進而指出現行電腦犯罪的規制可能因為雲端運算的到來而失去遞續性，產生了適用上的困境。 第三章的部分即是自我國電腦犯罪的發展過程作分析介紹，並且也就外國立法例的處理態度做對照，從我國電腦犯罪於妨害電腦使用罪章制定之前對於電腦犯罪規制的傳統見解，到妨害電腦使用罪章的修訂過程以及結果所呈現的整體罪章特色，以及所產生問題等皆是本章要處理的問題。並且在比較法的部分，亦詳實的呈現了當初設計規制時的該國情勢，以及修法後所遭到的批評，並且配合整體國際情勢對於我國電腦犯罪規制的去從給予一點建議。 第四章的部分則是以罪章施行後的實際面向來探討罪章所產生的適用上問題。畢竟自罪章制定施行至今已有約十年之久，於實務上的適用案例亦多達數百件，則實務上如何適用此些條文即是令人好奇之處。同時就該罪章所規制的各種行為態樣而言，在規制的設計上於現今受到何種批評，此些批評可能來自學界於分析法條後所產生的檢討聲浪，亦可能來自實務界於適用上所產生的困惑表示，更重要的則是有關行為規範的遞續性，亦即在雲端運算時代來臨後，此些行為態樣具體而言在適用上可能碰到何種困難，以及應該就何方向作改進。 第五章的部分則是對於前揭章節的分析結果的具體運用。首先必須從頭開始分析「電腦犯罪」，找出面對變動迅速的資訊科技的正確態度，並進而實踐此種態度來設計電腦犯罪的規制。在確立正確態度之後，即要基於此種態度對於電腦犯罪的規制作設計，包括罪章的保護法益、電腦概念的確定、以及細部的行為態樣以及處罰架構等問題，以建構一個對於電腦犯罪的規制模型。並且為了確保所建構的模型不但得以解決現有問題，亦存在本文所強調的遞續性，故在建構出規制模型後，本章仍挑起了以前述章節中所提及的案例，以及雲端運算出現後可能會產生的案例為對象，以所建構的模型來適用於該些案例的擔子。 最後的章節即是結論，亦即對於上述各個章節所得出來的研究成果作一個最大的總結，其中除了彙整每章所得出的結論外，亦以一氣呵成的敘述方式來為整本論文最終所要表達的立場作一個鮮明的闡述。

台灣筆記型電腦代工廠商從1990年代開始，經過多年努力已經成為全球最重要的筆記型電腦代工業者，掌握超過90%的市場。然而近年代工廠商卻面臨低毛利，以及蘋果替代品和歐美市場景氣衝擊而腹背受敵以致出貨大幅下滑的困境。本研究希望藉由某個案A公司的立場，探討台灣筆記型電腦轉型平板電腦，如何在總體及產業環境下，藉由本身優劣勢的分析，配合環境的各種機會與威脅，建立一個創新而本身可以掌控的雲端運算生態體系，同時帶來相對獲利較佳的營運模式。 本研究透過檢視總體環境的雲端運算趨勢與全球英語的發展，以及分析筆記型電腦、平板電腦、印度軟體代工產業、以及蘋果iPad的商業模式等產業環境因素，整理出台灣筆記型電腦代工廠所面對的環境機會與威脅。透過對個案公司的各種內在優劣勢分析，作出以下對台灣筆記型電腦代工業者的策略建議： 1. 降低筆記型電腦代工比重，尤其是適度減少Ultrabook投入，以挪出資源給新產品。 2. 增加伺服器等相關產品線的投入，轉型為雲端硬體供應商。 3. 發展在雲端運算與相關生態體系業者的合作夥伴關係，包括與印度軟體代工業者的合作。 4. 選擇平板電腦適合的行業用產業，先從小範圍的行業用雲端運算，例如雲端英語教學，作為培養實力與經驗的起點，藉以熟悉雲端運算的商業模式，同時尋求保持良好的營運利潤水準。 / After 20 years of endeavor, Taiwanese notebook PC, or Laptop, ODMs have gained more than 90% of world share in terms of annual notebook PC shipment. However, these ODMs have been facing detrimental challenges which the profit margin is getting slimmer, and even worse is their customers have been losing markets due to both the world economy downturn, and severe challenges from Apple’s so-called “iDevice” since 2010. Through the approach the case study of a notebook PC ODM who is diversifing from notebook PC to tablet PC industry, and through SWOT analysis, I hope to figure out some feasible solution to bail the ODMs out with some innovative and profitable business models. By scrutinizing the trends of Cloud Computing and Global English under the macro environment, and the current industry status of notebook PC, tablet PC, Indian software ODMs, Apple’s iPad and its business model, we intend to figure out the overall opportunities and threats from the macro environment for the notebook PC ODMs who are keen to diversify into tablet PC field. Also, through the research to identify the internal strengths and weakness of the case company, the summary and suggestion to Taiwanese notebook PC ODMs are as follows: 1. Lower the percentage of notebook PC lines among their products portfolio. Ultrabook is not suggested to have heavy investment on. 2. Allocate sufficient resources to develop cloud-related equipments such as servers and tablet PCs. 3. Develop the crirical compentence set which are necessary for Cloud Computing, through the close partnership with major ecosystem participating companies. The cooperation between Taiwanese hardware ODMs and Indian software ODMs are highly recommended. 4. Start with one small but manageable ecosystem, such as English teaching through cloud, and get familiar with the business model and ways of sustaining profits.

傳統展演中，觀眾和表演者被視為是兩個獨立的個體，表演者與表演者間及表演者與觀眾間互動不多，若使用穿戴式裝置結合科技與藝術的「虛實互動數位展演」，能協助營造現場的互動氣氛，是既新穎又富有創意的表演模式，還能結合故事劇情與觀眾互動，此種互動的情境氛圍，會比一般的資訊傳遞更容易讓觀眾有所感受。 而目前許多表演活動的展演特效系統，都是由特效控制技術人員根據展演人員的動作與節目進程來呈現。如果由展演人員自行操作、建置與管理的話，便需要瞭解特效控制的相關技術，此外也需要和技術人員互相溝通與合作。而彼此觀念、資訊與背景的不同，難免容易造成控制上的失誤、延遲或是溝通不良導致表演效果不佳以致於觀眾不好的視聽感受。基於上述問題，本研究將設計一個基於多租戶概念的雲端互動展演系統整合平台，展演人員只需透過網路連結至展演系統網站，配合連網感應器的穿戴式裝置，不需自行建置、管理系統平台，登入後可依個人需求使用直覺圖形化邏輯編輯器，使用滑鼠拖拉，控制需求，不需繁複的技術教學訓練，便根據穿戴式裝置回傳的感測訊號做出響應式的展演效果變化，達到展演人員可簡單好上手地自行操作展演特效系統，減少與特效控制技術人員合作上的失誤。 / In traditional performance art, viewers and performers are regarded as two independent individuals. There is less interaction between performers and performers, performers and audiences. If wearable devices are used in the "cyber-physical interactive digital performance art", it can help create an interactive atmosphere in the scene. It is a creative, innovative mode of performance, and it also creates a combination between scenario and the interaction of the audiences. The interactive atmosphere is easier for the audience to be affected than ordinary information transmission. Currently, many special effects are presented by the technical staff. They are based on the performers and progression of show. If the special effects are managed by the performer-selves, they need to understand the relative technologies. In addition, they have to cooperate and communicate with technical staff. However, the difference of concept and background between each other, it's hard to avoid the mistake, delay, or misunderstanding of control. It may cause that the poor performance bring audience about the bad auditory and visual feeling. According to above issues, this study will design and implement a multi-tenant cloud platform for cyber-physical interactive performance art. The performers just connect to the performance art system website via the Internet, with the wearable device, and they do not need to set up and manage system platform by themselves. They log in the website, with the GUI editor, and use mouse to control demand. Without complex technical training, the variety of special effects are presented which based on the wearable device’s signal. We suppose that the platform makes the performers operate special effects system by themselves simply and easily. It also reduces the misunderstanding with the technical staff.

本研究探討生產力4.0計畫推進ERP (Enterprise Resource Planning, Gartner Group Inc. 1990)軟體在產業管理系統的關鍵地位。從ERP軟體系統一直未能在企業百分之百順利建置的角度，分析企業在系統軟體導入過程中，內外關係人影響力造成的失效率，探討以羊群行為減低失效率，提升ERP成功比率，期以降低經營管理的沉沒成本。 通常企業要成功導入ERP系統，是取決於有效的專案管理(Loh and Koh, 2004)。而BPR (business process reengineering)是導入ERP系統的關鍵作業標準，例如Oracle的AIM(application, implementation, methodology)、SAP的ASAP(accelerated SAP)、鼎新的TIM(top implementation methodology)和江氏的FIT(fine implementation tool)。在過去24年來卻已緩緩偏離了企業實作科技(operational technology, OT)的基礎，包括經驗與務實(empirical and practice)的運作程序，依靠以資訊科技(information technology, IT)的標準節點為入口導向。 設若BPR標準操作流程，於導入期間重視經驗與務實的影響力，能夠妥適引導轉移(proper piloting migration, PPM)作最佳化適配(adaptation)。則建置和使用ERP系統(system)的策略，是整合網際網路(cyber)的市場價值和實體(physical)的執行績效，達成企業生產力4.0計畫的CPS虛實整合，為運營上帶來一項資產(asset)，而非遺產(legacy)。 / The study investigates possibly raising successful installation rate by Herd Behivor for the software of Enterprise Resource Planning, ERP (Gartner Group Inc. 1990) under Industry 4.0 Project. According to the historical data that reducing available rate of stakeholder influence would drop the sunk cost of information technology management. Usually enterprises in order to get an effectiveness of ERP installation, it depends on whether using proper project management (Loh and Koh, 2004). However, BPR (business process reengineering) was acting a key factor of standard operation procedure under project management in past 24 years, such as the Oracle’s AIM (application, implementation, methodology)、SAP’s ASAP (accelerated SAP)、Digiwin’s TIM (top implementation methodology) and Chiang’s FIT (fine implementation tool) . What failed rate of ERP installation is still high around industry, due to information technology (IT) instead of operational technology (OT). Meanwhile, the BRP could switch over to emphasize the empirical experience of piloting migration (PPM) of ERP on individual business. It would guide an optimal adaptation between operational site and information platform, the strategy of using ERP system is in order to combine both benefits as the marketing value of cyber and the manufacturing productivity of physical. There is the synergy coming from Industry 4.0 Project as well as an asset for the enterprise under a systematic integration of virtual cyber and physical reality.

隨著網際網路的傳輸技術進步，以「數位出版」的模式提供服務成為圖書館發展的趨勢，進而帶動了數位閱讀的型態。本研究以台灣雲端書庫為重點，聚焦於「計次借閱」的服務型態，探討合作圖書館與台灣雲端書庫使用者對於新型態的電子書借閱機制，並針對遠流出版社以及高雄市立圖書館提供之原始數據，分析使用者借閱情況，觀察借閱現況上出現之問題並提出建議。 歸納本研究之結果發現： （1）經由網站的觀察及原始數據的分析中發現，各站台內容不同，高雄市立圖書館辦證情況之基本資料內容與本身資料庫數量有落差。借閱機制上並未達到完善的處理。 （2）藉由問卷瞭解數位閱讀主要潛在族群之範圍與閱讀行為，以及電子書服務滿意度。以年齡作為主要的區分條件，取得數位閱讀使用者概括性的行為模式，並發現使用者對於台灣雲端書庫網站實際操作效益都有正向的影響。 （3）根據訪談者表示：除了推廣活動的宣傳以外，各館經費來源不一，也是影響使用率的因素之一；另外購置台灣雲端書庫之圖書館在採購電子書時，主要考量因素為格式、連線速度、穩定性等，並考量廠商信譽與其提供之書種與本身買斷書種重複率；並提出熱門及暢銷書為電子書種類中最大需求的類型。因此受訪者大多認為「按次計價」的借閱模式能有效提供讀者適當的服務，並藉由公共出借權的意念促使作者釋放電子書版權。 最後，本研究提出提升電子書借閱服務持續使用意願的具體建議，以供圖書館加強電子書借閱服務使用意願之參考。 / The advance of the transmission technology of the Internet has the service pattern of “digital publishing” become the development trend of libraries and further drive the type of digital reading. Focusing on eBook service and the service type of “One Copy, One User”, this study intends to discuss the idea of cooperative libraries and users of eBook Service about the new type of eBook lending mechanism, analyze users’ lending situations, aiming at the raw data offered by Yuan-Liou Publishing Co., Ltd. and Kaohsiung Public Library, observe the problems in current lending situations, and propose suggestions. The research findings are summarized as below. (1) The website observation and raw data analyses reveal different contents on various websites. The basic information in the card application for Kaohsiung Public Library is distinct from the quantity in the database, showing that the lending mechanism is not properly processed. (2) The coverage of major potential groups of digital reading and the reading behaviors as well as the satisfaction with eBook service are understood through the questionnaire. Differentiating with age, the general behavior patterns of digital reading users are acquired; and, the users present positive effects on the practical operation benefit of eBook Service websites. (3) The interviewer indicates that different sources of funds for libraries, except for promotions, are a key factor in the use rate. Besides, format, connection speed, and stability are the factors in libraries purchasing eBooks, the reputation of publishers, types of books provided, and the repetition rate of types of bought books would also be taken into account, and active titles and best sellers, which are the largely demanded types of eBooks, would be proposed. In this case, most respondents consider that the lending pattern of “charged by time” could effectively provide readers with proper services. Moreover, the idea of public lending right could facilitate the authors releasing the eBook copyright. Finally, specific suggestions for enhancing the sustained use intention of eBook lending service are proposed in this study for the reference of libraries reinforcing the use intention of the eBook lending service.

近幾年來，雲端應用已是非常普遍現象，雲端計算是推動巨量資料( Big Data)分析與與開放資料界面等關鍵服務之營運模式，同時在近來熱門話題如物聯網、智慧城市、工業4.0等扮演著重要角色。 本文研究目的係探討台灣傳統機械業製造廠使用雲端服務的狀況及如何運用雲端服務創造效益；本研究是以F公司為研究個案，研究個案如何透過雲端應用增加企業效益、顧客滿意度,在當前環境下如何以擬訂之策略增加競爭對手門檻及產品區隔市場，並符合現在趨勢，以迎接工業4.0雛型做準備。 本研究透過個案資料收集、相關文獻探討及個案執行人員訪談，探討雲端服務在傳統製造業為公司經營所創造之效益。本研究從「傳統機械業遇到的挑戰與策略」、「個案F公司背景及營運現況(公司、產品、顧客)」、「雲端計算的應用」、「傳統機械業加上雲端應用後的效益」四個面向切入探討。 研究發現，傳統機械業在雲端應用的利益，不僅可以成為公司銷售策略、提升現有服務的品質更能以創新服務協助企業做節能診斷與建議，這樣不僅替客戶節省成本，並且增進顧客滿意度及黏著度。而另一個發現是透過雲端應用，可進一步作供應鏈管理，減少企業備料時間及降低庫存，使企業在激烈的競爭環境中，降低成本、增加毛利並創造企業長期的競爭優勢，同時為未來工業4.0之引進做準備。 關鍵字:雲端應用、傳統機械業、增加企業效益、 創新服務、增進顧客滿意度、 工業4.0. / Cloud applications have become prevalent in recent years. In particular, cloud computing is the operational model in key services for promoting big data analysis and open data interface. It also plays the vital roles in recent popular subjects, such as the internet of things, smart city, and industry 4.0. The objective of this study is to explore the current conditions of how cloud services are utilized in the traditional machine factories in Taiwan and to create benefits. With Company F as the case, this study examines how cloud applications are used to improve corporate benefits and customer satisfaction, as well as how strategies should be formulated for market differentiation to increase competitiveness, connect with current trends, and prepare for the prototype of industry 4.0. Through data collection, literary review, and interview with project implementation staff of the case, the study explores the benefits that cloud applications generate for the traditional manufacturing businesses. There are four focuses of investigation in this study—challenges encountered and strategies formulated by the traditional mechanical industry; case study of company F, including company background and the existing operation concerning the company, product and customers; applications of cloud computing; benefits of cloud applications on traditional mechanical industry. It is indicated in research findings that in the traditional mechanical industry, the benefits of cloud computing will not only become corporate sales strategy and improve existing service quality, but also provide diagnosis and recommendations on energy saving for corporations with innovative services. This will help clients cut costs, and improve customer satisfaction and adhesion. An additional finding is that cloud applications can further manage the supply chain, minimize lead time, and reduce inventory, which enable corporations to reduce costs, increase gross profits, and create long term corporate advantages in a competitive environment to prepare for the upcoming industry 4.0. Keywords: Cloud applications, traditional mechanical industry, improve corporate benefit, innovative service, increase customer satisfaction, industry 4.0.

本文採用可加性模型分析法建立台灣地區小型商用車市場之需求模型，並 引進Box-Jenkins時間序列模型處理具自我相關之誤差項，以利進行拔靴 推論設計時，能拔靴白干擾(bootstrapping white noise)，即重抽樣白 干擾的經驗分配。在此次研究過程中，除配適Box-Jenkins時間序列模型 外，所有分析步驟都是完全自動的，不須作假設和檢驗的工作，所以可降 低傳統上因統計人員主觀判斷錯誤所造成的估計偏誤。可加性模型改進傳 統迴歸模型須先假設模型形式的限制，可從商用車實證分析中，直接由資 料配適平滑函數，顯見其合理性。拔靴法免除傳統推論程序須強使隨機干 擾項分配為常態分配或漸近常態分配之束縛，改由殘差經驗分配模擬隨機 干擾項分配行為，在推論商用車市場上，也獲得不錯的結果。