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  • About
  • The Global ETD Search service is a free service for researchers to find electronic theses and dissertations. This service is provided by the Networked Digital Library of Theses and Dissertations.
    Our metadata is collected from universities around the world. If you manage a university/consortium/country archive and want to be added, details can be found on the NDLTD website.
31

強制性財務預測對股價及交易量影響之研究

蔡玉璇 Unknown Date (has links)
本研究結合價量分析,旨在探討強制性財務預測是否具備資訊內涵,依其性質分為原始財測、正向更新和負向更新三種,循序驗證各種財務預測宣佈時,股市是否有異常價量反應。並進一步依序檢驗未預期盈餘(或更新幅度)、公司規模及行業別與股市累積異常價量之關係。最後比較『公開發行公司財務預測資訊公開體系實施要點』修改前後對研究結果之影響。本論文以民國八十二年初至民國八十七年底之上市公司為研究對象,實證結果如下: 一、股價反應原始強制性財務預測資訊較交易量快,但持續期間較短。 二、正向更新強制性財務預測發佈時,股價有顯著異常反應,但交易量卻無明顯變動。 三、負向更新強制性財務預測發佈時,價量皆有異常反應。 四、『實施要點』修改後,對平均異常報酬率的影響較大,對平均異常交易量的影響較小。 五、原始強制性財務預測發佈時,相較於訊息內容所含之未預期盈餘大小,投資者更側重公司規模及所屬行業別。 六、正向更新強制性財務預測發佈時,相較於目前公司規模之大小,投資者更重視正向更新幅度及所屬行業別。 七、負向更新強制性財務預測發佈時,投資者不只重視負向更新幅度,亦重視目前之公司規模及所屬行業別。 八、『實施要點』修改後,因放寬更新標準規定,管理當局更會利用機會高估財務預測。
32

從預期轉換期間觀點探討宣告與發行可轉換公司債對公司股價的影響--台灣的實證分析 / Discussion on the impacts of convertible bonds annoucements and issues on the stock prices from time to expected conversion - an empirical analysis on Taiwan

張正中, Chang, Morris Unknown Date (has links)
本研究探討上市公司宣告發行與正式發行可轉換公司債對於股價報酬率的影響,並配合預期轉換期間觀點的介紹,探討可轉換公司債內含的債卷與權益性質是否影響發行的股價表現. 本研究取樣民國79年至87年2月在臺灣證卷交易所上市的國內可轉換公司債為研究對象,共有69個樣本,分別針對宣告日與發行日前後20個交易日進行異常報酬分析,並且以異常報酬為應變數,預期轉換期間和其他控制變數為自變數進行多元迴歸分析,得到以下的結論:1.臺灣企業發行的可轉換公司債普遍為權益型的可轉換公司債,轉換 期間較短,權益性質較強,因此宣告時股價表現與權益型證卷較類似 ,股價有負面反應.2.預期轉換期間的長短和發行時異常報酬有顯著正向關係,表示預期轉 期間愈長,權益性質愈強,發行時股價表現榆.3.股價報酬率波動度和發行時異常報酬有顯著負向關係,表示股價波動度愈大,內含選擇權的價值愈高,權益性質愈強,發行時股價表現愈差. / The research will analysis the impacts of average and cumulative abcdrmal returns of the underlying stocks of the convertible bonds ann-ouncements and issues by means of events study and GARCH model. And then, we introduce time to expected conversion, we can divide samples into bond-like and equity-like convertible bonds, and through the multipleregression analysis, whether or not there is abcdrmal returns because ofbond and equity characteristics embeded in the convertible bonds can thenbe determined. Our research will be conducted a convertible bonds set from TaiwanStock Exchange from 1990.4 to 1998.2, the empirical results shows that:1.The convertible bonds issued in Taiwan is usually equity-like, time to expected conversion is very short and equity characterisitcs is very strong, the underlying stock prices is smiliar to equity securities at the announcements of a new issuance and have a negative abcdrmal returns. 2.Time to expected conversion is significant positive to two-day period abcdrmal returns at the issuance day, this results shows that when this time is longer and is easier to converse, the convertible bonds is more equity-like and negative effects of the underlying stocks is larger. 3. The volatility of underlying stocks is significant negative relation to two-day period abcdrmal returns at the issuance day, this results shows that when this volatility of returns is larger and it can increase the value of the options embeded in the bonds, the convertible bonds is more equity-like and negative effects of the underlying stocks is larger.
33

派外人員返國調適與留職意願之研究 / Repatriation Adjustment and Intent of Retention

周莉萍, Chou, Li Ping Unknown Date (has links)
隨著台灣企業國際化程度的加深,派外人員的管理已成為國際人力資源管理的重要課題。而與派外相關的主題如:派外人員的遴選標準,派外前訓練課程的設計等,國內外已有諸多研究。因此本研究擬從返任時面對環境轉換所須調整幅度的角度探討我國企業派外人員返國留職意願之關係,期能達成以下研究目的。1.探討影響派外人員返任前心理預期之調整與返任後實際認知之調整的因素。2.了解派外人員返任前心理預期之調整與返任後實際認知之調整對其返任後留職意願之影響如何3.根據1.2.之研究發現建議組織應採何種政策措施以減輕派外人員返國調適上的困擾及問題,以提高返任後之留職意願。
34

多期理性預期模型下長短期投資與價格資訊理論之研究 / The Studies on Long-Horizon & Short-Horizon Investment and Price-Informativeness Theory under Multiperiod Rational Expectation Model

韓千山, Han, Chian Shan Unknown Date (has links)
在古典理性預期模型中,理性的投資者會蒐集並利用各種相關訊息來幫助其做最適的投資行為。然而市場價格也是訊息來源之一。在效率市場中,價格完全透露出訊息,則無人會有蒐集訊息的動機;若市場有干擾,價格無法顯露出所有相關訊息,私人訊息便有價值。因此,價格資訊性的高低,會影響到私人訊息對投資的重要性。其次,訊息若要能幫助投資者獲得套利利潤,仍須假設投資者必須能夠持有資產一直至資產價值實現為止。顯然的,短期投資者並不符合此一假設。我們相信在通常情況下,長期投資者會比短期投資者更有動機去成為消息靈通者,而且短期投資者對訊息處理的態度有許多特性迴異於古典模型的投資者,他們的存在對市場價格資訊性也會有相當程度的衝擊。本文基於上述想法,利用干擾不對稱訊息下之多期理性預期模型,假設市場中有長期與短期投資者,來探討影響價格資訊性之各項因素及短期投資者之行為特性。
35

多期理性預期模型下價格資訊性之研究 / Informativeness of Prices in Multi-period Rational Expections Model

連春紅, Lien, Ch'un-Hung Unknown Date (has links)
在充滿不確定性之交易市場中,每位交易者會盡量利用所擁有之資訊,在市場有干擾(如,風險性資產供給之不確定性、個人偏好不同、個人面對之稅負環境不同等)之情形下,市場會顯露出部份私人訊息,故交易者亦會經由對價格和交易量之觀察習得訊息;擁有私人訊息之交易者稱為消息靈通者(Informed),未擁有私人訊息而只能經由觀察價格而習(learn )得 訊息之交易者稱為消息不靈通者(Uninformed),他們二者之差異在於他們是否願花成本或資源以購買訊息。本文係在干擾理性預期模型下,利用所設定之特殊效用函數--絕對風險規避效用函數及假設隨機變數為多元常態分配,探討市場有干擾情形下,在第一期有私人訊息而在第二期有公開訊息揭露之不對稱訊息模型中價格之資訊性,分別分析了公告訊息和私人訊 息之干擾程度、風險性資產供給之不確定及購買訊息人數對二期價格資訊性之影響。在所設定的模型有解下,本文利用這些影響因素對公告訊息和私人訊息在總合需求計劃部位 (Position)的彈性說明二期價格資訊性。同時文中亦探討購買訊息人數之內生決定,顯示了公告訊息之揭露會修正交易者之看法而減少私人蒐集訊息之誘因。
36

信用資產組合之集中度、風險貢獻與壓力測試逆境值實證研究 / The empirical studies of credit portfolio in concentration,risk contribution and downturn values of stress test

簡國安 Unknown Date (has links)
論文把國內十家公股銀行的放款違約資料進行合併,並且以合併後的資料,使用 CreditPortfolioView 模型建立整體公股銀行放款組合的損失分配,利用公股銀行的放款資料,探討曝險分組對於損失分配(loss distribution)的影響,並且使用重點抽樣(Importance Sampling)的方法估計風險貢獻(risk contribution, RC),利用給定部份系統風險因子的模型,進行壓力測試(stress test)。 由本論文的實證結果可以發現同一類放款產品曝險之中,若是個別曝險有極端的曝險額,將會增加此類產品的集中度風險。若曝險總額固定,但是曝險筆數較少,每筆曝險佔總曝險的比例較大,也會產生較大的集中度,而有較大的風險值(valut at risk, VaR)、預期短缺(expected shortfall, ES)及經濟資本(economic capital, EC),因此曝險額的設定愈粗略,將會估出較高的未預期損失。 本論文使用重點抽樣的方法,估算預期短缺的風險貢獻。並且由實證的結果, 觀察到同一類放款的經濟資本率和放款曝險額呈現正相關並且具有接近線性的關係,因此可以建立經濟資本率的線性估計式,對未來可能的放款,進行簡單的風險貢獻及經濟資本的估算。 要進行壓力測試,最大的問題是必須選擇適當的施壓變數及設定可能的逆境值(downturn values)。我們通常選擇具有經濟意含的總體因子,當作施壓變數。但是逆境值的設定,可能是主觀認定或者參考歷史資料,如果要設定多個總體因子逆境值,很容易忽略了總體變數之間的關係。本論文嘗試使用常態分配及條件常態分配的假設, 建立可能發生的壓力情境,並且利用給定部份系統風險因子的模型,進行壓力測試。
37

TPB理論探討線上團購行為-以Babyhome親子團購網為例 / Research customer behavior of online group buying by the theory of planned behavior -In case of Babyhome group buying website

林淑雲 Unknown Date (has links)
線上團購在近年已形成一股風潮,透過買方人數的累積以增加買家的議價能力,並向賣方獲得較便宜的價格或額外服務,然而在學術上的研究多探討數量與價格上的均衡經濟解,少以針對消費者面多做研究,因此本篇研究以計劃行為理論(TPB)為基礎,納入其他衡量構面,包含網站服務品質、顧客預期價值、信任、主觀規範、知覺行為控制、參與團購意願度以及團購行為,針對Babyhome親子網站的團購版,探討社群會員的團購消費行為。研究中於行為信念與態度部分,提出網站服務品質、顧客預期價值、網站信任、團購滿意度等構面,而主觀規範則是以虛擬社群之社群意識作為衡量代表,並以免費/付費會員身分之構面為調節變數,進一步的瞭解參與團購意願與團購行為之間的關係。 本研究以Babyhome親子網為個案研究對象,透過文獻探討以及訪談曾經參與團購的會員來設計問卷,並在Babyhome親子網站上發放線上問卷以便收收集樣本資料,再透過結構方程式分析樣本資料並獲得結論。研究發現網站服務品質與信任有顯著正向關係,同時網站服務品質與顧客的預期價值對於團購滿意度皆有顯著正向關係,然而網站信任與參與團購意願雖有正向關係但卻不顯著,推測可能原因為相較於消費者的網站信任,產品的信任或是產品廠商的信任可能對於增加團購意願程度有較大的影響,再者,透過訪談也可發現會員在決定參與團購時很大的關鍵因素在於版上媽媽的推薦以及產品本身,因此即便會員對於網站有正面的信任但卻不會有立即性提高參與團購意願。除此之外,透過研究瞭解到免費/付費會員身分為團購意願度於行為之間的調節變數,免費會員相較於付費會員有較強的團購行為,因此,基於以上資料分析結果,本研究提出管理意涵與建議,並希望未來有更進一步的相關研究。
38

國外金融機構違約預警模型--Merton模型之應用 / The Default Predicted Model of Foreign Financial Institutions--An Application of Merton Model

郭名峻 Unknown Date (has links)
有鑑於信用風險衡量模型之廣泛使用,以及預測金融機構違約事件之重要性,本研究欲建立能有效預測金融機構違約事件之模型。其中Merton模型之概念被廣泛的應用,包含著名之KMV公司亦以Merton模型之概念建立信用風險管理機制,因此本研究選擇Merton模型之產出-預期違約機率(Expected Default Frequency, EDF)作為預測違約事件之主要變數。 本研究以國外56家金融機構,於2007至2009年共140筆樣本資料,資料內容包含股價以及財務變數。實證方法為先以各公司之股價資訊透過Merton模型計算各樣本之預期違約機率,作為Logistic迴歸模型之自變數進行分析。之後另外加入財務變數嘗試增進模型之解釋能力。此外,本研究亦修正模型之設定以檢視在更貼近真實世界的假設下,模型之預測能力是否有提升。本研究之實證結果發現,單以預期違約機率所建立之違約預測模型即有良好之預測能力,即使再加入其他變數並進行假設的修正,對於模型預測效果提升並不顯著。因此本研究肯定Merton模型以公司之股價資訊衡量違約風險之概念。
39

理工科系大學生性別、家庭社經地位對成就抱負與預期薪資之路徑分析 / A Path Analysis of Gender and Family Socioeconomic Status in Achievement Aspiration and Anticipated Salary: The Case of College Students in Science and Engineering

康逸筠 Unknown Date (has links)
本研究旨在以理工科系大學生為樣本,探討並建構家庭社經地位、成就抱負與預期薪資之理論模型。研究以胡悅倫(2008)建構之資料庫為樣本,抽取1,084名理工科系大學生為研究對象,以變異數分析、卡方考驗及結構方程模式建構其路徑關係模式。研究結果顯示: 一、家庭社經地位對個體的成就抱負與預期薪資有正向的影響。父母職業聲望和教育程度較高者有較高的成就抱負和預期薪資。 二、家庭社經地位會透過成就抱負為中介,間接影響個體的預期薪資。 三、男女性在成就抱負上無顯著差異,但在預期薪資中男性的預期薪資會高於女性的預期薪資。 四、男性會進入男性化職業,女性會進入女性化職業。 五、預期進入男性化職業工作者的預期薪資高於進入女性化職業的工作者,而這樣的差距是跨性別存在。 最後,研究者根據研究結果提出建議,供實務工作者與後續研究者參考。 / The purpose of this study is to investigate and build a model on how family socioeconomic status affects achievement aspiration and anticipated salary. Participants are 1,084 Science and Engineering students from the database compiled by Yueh-Luen Hu (2008). Data analysis includes one-way ANOVA, t-test, chi-square test, and structural equation modeling. Results of the study are as follows: 1. Family socioeconomic status had significant positive effects on achievement aspiration and anticipated salary. Participants who are of higher socioeconomic status also had higher achievement aspiration and anticipated salary. 2. Achievement aspiration acted as a mediator between family socioeconomic status and anticipated salary. Achievement aspiration had significant indirect effects on anticipated salary. 3. The gender differences in achievement aspiration are non-significant. However, Men’s pay expectations are higher than of the women’s. 4. Males prefer to enter male-dominated jobs, while females prefer to enter female-dominated jobs. 5. Those who hold female-dominated jobs expect to gain less pay than those pursuing male-dominated jobs. The gap exists for both men and women. Results of the study shall serve as a point of reference for future researches.
40

年齡別死亡率對兩性平均餘命成長與差異之影響分析: 1950-2004 / Decomposition Analysis of the Gender Differences in Life Expectancy at Birth in Taiwan: Evolution and Changes,1950-2004

郭貞蘭, Kuo, Chen-Lan Unknown Date (has links)
人口預期壽命的變化一直以來皆被視為是人類發展與進步的指標之一,其成長更為人們所樂見。當人類預期壽命普遍成長且達一定壽命水準時,兩性存活年數的差距仍為一常見的現象。假設社會的發展與變遷對同一社會中的兩性人口造成相異的衝擊,此種差異性會進一步透過兩者間壽命差距的狀況加以反映時,在追求兩性平等與均衡發展此社會目標之驅動下,對兩性壽命水準差距狀況的瞭解乃為提升兩性存活狀況、創造均衡之兩性社會並進而採取相關策略前重要的一步。 本研究利用內政府統計處所編列之台灣地區簡易生命表做為主要的分析資料,從透過對台灣地區兩性壽命差距於國民政府遷台後之1950起至2004年此55年間變化之關注做為出發點,發現兩性壽命於55年間其增長變化上雖然呈現相似的變動狀態,然而女性於各時期內優於男性之成長幅度則是造成日趨擴大之兩性壽命差距之由來。又兩性出生時平均餘命其變動上所呈現的階段性則與兩性壽命差距水準變化上所出現的四階段有其關聯性。此外,兩性於各年齡別平均餘命之增長,大致來說,主要發生在10-60歲組中,70歲以後之較高年齡組中,兩性存活餘命的成長則較不顯著,且兩性餘命差距隨著年齡別的增加而減少。兩性於各年齡別上餘命之差距,在研究觀察的55年間呈現穩定,只是,1960年以前兩性出生時平均餘命與其他較高年齡組上之平均餘命間呈現較為特殊的型態,此乃說明造成兩性壽命差距之年齡別死亡率有異。 本研究將Arriaga(1984)所提,用以分解兩相異之平均餘命,而以不同年齡別中兩性死亡率差異分別對兩性預期壽命差距所作之貢獻加以表示時,發現,兩性在40-79歲間死亡率的差異是造成兩性壽命差距最主要的貢獻年齡別,其中以60-69歲組為最。此外,面對0-9歲組中兩性死亡率差異狀況對該時期兩性預期壽命差距之貢獻型態於1960年前後所呈現之相異性時,一方面有對該時期兩性死亡率之資料加以檢定之必要性外,其所可能象徵之女性生存狀況受其地位改善之影響,抑或為男性存活狀況變化等推測的驗證雖不在本研究所觸及之範圍內,然而透過本研究分析結果中所掌握造成兩性壽命差距之年齡組別,則有助於日後在企圖釐清造成兩性壽命差距之因以進一步改善兩性存活狀況時一切入點。 / Life Expectancy of human beings, one of the indices of human development, has been generally growing since the beginning of the 20th century and the increase in the life span of human is also taken as the result of the improved medical techniques and social conditions. In the face of the growth in life expectancy at birth both of the male and female populations in Taiwan during the past 55 years, 1950-2004, the gender differential of life expectancy at birth or at any other specific age still exited and even got expanding. The difference in life expectancy at birth between the male and the female was 2.64 years and in the year of 2004, it came to be 6.24 years. Suppose the growth of human life expectancy at birth or at any specific age in both female and male populations implies that social changes and developments brought positive impacts not only on the female but also on the male during the observation period of 55 years. Obviously, the existing and expanding gender differences in life expectancy somewhat indicates that the impact of the social changes and developments on the male and the female weren’t comparable in qualities. The main concern of this article is about the change of the differences in life expectancy at birth between the male and the female in Taiwan during the past 55 years, 1950-2004. Dismissing the discussion and investigation of the practical and real causes of the gender difference in life expectancy, the researcher intended to give the reason to the expanding gender difference in life expectancy by comparing the way male and female life expectancies evolved. In addition, adopting the decomposition method developed by Arriaga(1984) originally for decomposition of changes in expectation of life at birth, the researcher was using this method to decompose the gender differential in life expectancy at birth and evaluated the contribution of the gender differential in mortality within each specific age group to the ultimate differential in life expectancy at birth between the male and the female each year during the observation period and the shifts in the significance of these age groups in the past 55 years. In this article, the researcher separated a person’s life into several age groups,0-9,10-19,20-29,30-39,40-49,50-59,60-69,70-79 and 80 above, to symbolize the different stage of a person’s life. The male and the female experienced similar pattern in the changes of life expectancy. However, the improvement of female life expectancy was greater than that of the male’s in any specific period of the past 55 years , which caused the increasing difference in life expectancy between the male and female in Taiwan. The higher the age is, the less the gender difference in life expectancy at that specific age is. As the male is able to live long enough to a higher age, they are more likely to overcome the survival predominance of the female and the gender difference in life expectancy at a specific age would diminish. In addition, as for the contributions made by each specific age group, during the observation period of 55 years, gender differential life expectancy at birth had been coming from the gender differential in death rates within 40 to 80 years old. The contribution made by the age group of 60-69 made had been the most significant one. Mostly, the living ability of the female was much more superior to that of the male at any specific age even if the significance, each age groups held, somewhat had been shifting during the 55 years. Noticeably, the type of the contribution, age group of 0-9 made, was very different after 1960. Before 1960, men demonstrated a better survival ability than women did within this age group; however, after 1960, the superiority of men came into disappearance. As for the change of the contribution this age group of 0-9 made, we need to have more information and data to gain the further ideas it might bring about.

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