過去研究多將焦點集中在增加高階經理人薪酬，將可促使高階經理人為公司股東的權益努力，為此探討提昇股東權益包含高階經理人獎酬與公司績效間的關聯，卻忽略了其與風險間的關係。高階經理人員可能因為獎酬的激勵，從事對公司有利且風險較低的計畫，也可能會為了提高自身的權利，將風險轉嫁給公司，因此激發出探討高階經理人員獎酬與公司風險間的關係的研究動機。 本研究以KMV模型之預期違約率作為公司風險之參數，探討高階經理人之 薪酬、自由現金流量、KMV信用風險之關係，同時瞭解公司規模是否影響高階 經理人薪酬、自由現金流量及公司績效與公司KMV信用風險間的關係。 研究結果顯示，公司高階經理人的薪酬與公司違約風險呈負相關，即高階經理人薪酬的提高，確能降低公司的違約風險，但此現象僅在大規模公司才能發現。此外，就自由現金流量而言，小規模公司之自由現金流量愈多，存在較高的風險，惟有提高公司營運績效，方能減緩公司風險的承擔。另一方面，對於高階經理人薪酬的提升，雖然在小規模公司並沒有效果，但係有助減緩自由現金流量帶來的負向衝擊。最後，前述小結僅存在於小規模公司群體，這可能是因為，大公司擁有較高的政治成本，因此為了避免社會的關注，大公司較小公司有較好的公司治理機制，因此管理當局較不可能基於自利的動機來影響公司的風險。 / Many past researches focused on senior manager will be able to work hard for raising shareholder’s equity because of higher compensation. Many researches of raising stakeholder’s equity explored the relation between senior manager compensation and financial performance, but ignored the relation with credit risk of company. Senior managers maybe perform lower or higher risk project for themselves benefit due to some higher compensation motivation. Thus this researching will refocus on exploring the relation between senior manager compensation and company credit risk. This study will discuss the relation among senior manager compensation, FCF and KMV company credit risk by EDF of KMV model as a parameter of company credit risk. And to understand the scale of company weather influence the relation among senior manager compensation, FCF and KMV company credit risk? The results of this research show that the senior manager compensation is negatively correlated with company credit default risk. On the other hand, higher senior manager compensation will reduce the risk of company credit default, but this phenomenon can be found only in lager companies. In addition, as far as small company's FCF, the more FCF, the more there is a higher risk. Increase company's operating performance, the company credit risk can be slow down. On the other hand, in small company there is no effect on raising senior manager compensation, but it will help mitigate the negative impact of FCF. Finally, the foregoing summary is just only in small company groups, may be because larger companies have higher political cost, so in order to avoid the concern of society, larger companies have better corporate governance than small companies, thus senior manager will not be able to influence the company’s credit risk for their self-interested motivation.

University of Macau / Institute of Chinese Medical Sciences

本研究針對房屋本身具有高度異質性、昂貴性、耐久性、低重複購買頻率、消費與投資雙重性等特性，使得一般行銷研究結果，套用在解釋購屋搜尋行為可能產生問題。但以往房屋市場之搜尋行為研究，多著重價格之搜尋，且忽略其他管道使用情形，難以全面窺視購屋者之搜尋行為，故本研究依據前述房屋主要的幾個特性，藉由回顧搜尋行為相關理論與文獻提出研究假說，透過存活分析法與多項邏輯特模型進行實證，重新審視購屋者之搜尋行為。 首先，考量房屋不同於一般消費性商品之特性，可能使得一般行銷研究結果，套用在解釋購屋搜尋行為時產生問題，故以存活分析探討這些特性對搜尋期間可能造成的影響。研究結果發現購屋目的顯著影響搜尋期間，且購屋者在搜尋時會同時重視產品與價格，其重視程度增加將拉長搜尋期間，而時間壓力對搜尋期間影響則不顯著。最後，透過仲介購屋之購屋者，因為可供考慮物件增多，且服務費用多寡與取得物件數量無關，因此，其搜尋期間較自行搜尋者增加。研究結果在實務上的意涵為，當景氣處於較低迷時，業者應多提供購屋者關於產品之外部資訊，特別是與家戶切身相關之房屋資訊，並極力避免價格戰，而仲介業者也應重新檢討目前的服務方式，以期達成協助購屋者迅速成交之企業訴求。 而房屋的消費與投資雙重性與經驗財之特性，使得個人對房價的認知與預期的差異，影響其搜尋期間，而產生有限理性之決策。本研究以存活分析探討個人目前房價認知與未來房價預期差異對搜尋期間的影響。結果顯示定錨效應確實影響購屋搜尋行為，在納入個人目前房價認知後，自住者對房價看法看漲者參考點較高，搜尋期間縮短，反之，看跌者搜尋期間較長。也就是對目前房價看法越樂觀，但對一年後房價看法悲觀者，其參考點向下修正幅度越高。研究結果主要貢獻在釐清購屋搜尋行為為有限理性決策，房價看法應由目前房價認知與未來房價預期共同構成，且未來房價預期有加強定錨效應的情況。 除前述特性以外，房屋尚有低重複購買頻率的特性，雖然相關研究證實經驗確實會影響搜尋期間，卻忽略租屋經驗可能造成的影響，特別是租屋搜尋與購屋搜尋有部分相似，但以往卻少有研究討論，更遑論深入分析兩種經驗個別對購屋搜尋行為的影響。本研究透過存活分析法，去探討購屋經驗、租屋經驗，對預售屋、成屋購屋搜尋行為的影響。研究結果顯示，就購買成屋部分，相對於無任何經驗之購屋搜尋者，租屋經驗與搜尋期間為正向關係，購屋經驗與搜尋期間為負向關係。而仲介服務則有助於提升中度經驗者之經驗水準，縮短其搜尋期間。就購買預售屋部分，僅購屋經驗有顯著負向影響，但租屋經驗似乎難以延伸至預售屋之購買。研究結果主要貢獻在於，釐清先前租屋經驗確實可延伸至本次的購屋搜尋，而購屋經驗對購屋搜尋期間之影響為負向，租屋經驗對搜尋期間影響為正向，且兩者對預售屋、成屋之購屋搜尋期間影響不同，故在進行分析與研究結論的引用時，應予以分別討論。 除探討搜尋期間外，本研究更針對含個人來源與商業來源不同管道對搜尋期間之影響進行討論。研究結果顯示，購屋者資訊搜尋管道之選擇，以商業來源與混合來源居多，且常使用含個人來源搜尋之購屋者，搜尋期間較有使用商業來源者短。此結果表示對購屋者而言，搜尋管道並非互斥，購屋者會努力使用不同管道去搜尋資訊，以降低決策之不確定性，且隱含購屋者對商業來源有一定程度的不信任。因此，建議業者除維持現有行銷管道，應加強口碑行銷，以提升溝通效率。 / House is a durable good with heterogeneity, expensiveness, and low liquidity, and also an investment and consumption product. Those characteristics made housing search behavior not to be applied appropriately from the general marketing research results. This dissertation employs search theory, behavior theory, survival analysis, and multinomial logit model to study four relative essays. The first essay tries to explain the difference between houses and consumer goods. Our research tested three hypotheses by questionnaires which investigated the person who is in charge family livelihood and bought house during 1998 and 2002 in Tai-chung. The three hypotheses have been confirmed. First, because the house is a good important to all family members, the search duration of the houses for self-living is longer than those for investment. Second, not only the price differences affect the search duration but also the product differences do; however, the influences of time pressure and purchase experience on search duration are not significant. Last but not least, because house searchers have more house selling information through brokers and no additional cost from visiting one more house, they prefer to extend their search duration compared to those who search by himself. The meaning of our research in practice is that the house seller should provide more product information to house buyer and give every effort to avoid price war. The second essay is to discuss how house searchers measure search costs and benefits with utility or price if they are rational decision-makers. We develop a hypothesis and a search model of indefinite and sampling without recall which integrates the studies on worker search, prospect theory, and search behavior. The data comes from “Taiwan Housing Demand Survey” and includes home-buyers and home-searchers from 2003Q1 to 2003Q4. The result shows that the buyers are bounded rational, and the stopping ratio has time dependency. The buyers tend to search for minimum price during the economic fluctuation. When the consumption buyers have a higher housing price perception, they also have a higher reference points, it makes them shorten their search duration. And their price expectation would enhance the anchoring effect. Searching more can bring the buyers benefits mainly from utility increase but not price discount. Therefore, it seems reasonable to subsume individual price perception and expectation when analyzing home-buyers’ search behaviors. The third essay focuses on the effects of homebuyers’ buying and renting experience on their search behaviors. The data also comes from “Taiwan Housing Demand Survey” and includes home-buyers and home-searchers from 2003Q1 to 2004Q1. The results show that our two hypotheses are supported. The effects of homebuyers’ prior house buying experience on search duration are different from their prior house renting experience. While buying a pre-sale or existing house, the buyers with renting experience have longer duration than the buyer with buying or non-experience. In addition, only buying experiences of homebuyers have positive relation with the search duration of pre-sale houses. The final essay has two goals. One is to explore how homebuyers choose information sources. The other is to examine the relationship between information sources and search duration. The data comes from “Taiwan Housing Demand Survey” and includes the questionnaires from sampled homebuyers of 2005Q3. We also use survival model to test our hypotheses. The results show that homebuyers incline to use the commercial sources and mix sources. Even the limit of personal source, it can reduce the buyers’ search duration. Therefore, in order to improve transaction efficiency, the firms should make use of their existing marketing channels and try to build good word-of-mouth as well.

會計盈餘是企業向投資人傳達營運績效的指標，又投資人視公司達成分析師預測門檻與否為企業前景的重要訊號。當公司宣告策略聯盟決策時，資本市場給予正面評價，不過策略聯盟協議可能使管理當局存在機會主義與盈餘管理活動，過去文獻發現，有策略聯盟的公司，其盈餘品質較低。本文探究企業執行策略聯盟對於跨越盈餘門檻的關聯性，觀察策略聯盟事件是否為管理當局進行盈餘管理或是預期管理的工具，以迎合或擊敗分析師之盈餘預測門檻。本文實證發現策略聯盟與否及策略聯盟多寡與分析師預測門檻具有顯著正相關，而執行策略聯盟之公司從事向下引導分析師預測的機率較低，此外，實證結果亦發現，策略聯盟會降低公司管理當局採取向上調整裁決性應計數的可能性。綜上研究顯示，有策略聯盟之企業達成分析師預測門檻的機會較高，然而，其管理當局較不會選擇應計項目盈餘管理或預期管理方式來迎合或擊敗分析師之盈餘預測門檻。

房屋預售制度是國內不動產業的一大特色，而長期以來國內對房價的研究皆著重於成屋價格，且大都以特徵價格法分析成屋價格屬性，對預售屋價格的形成及成屋與預售屋彼此價格相互影響一直缺乏深入的研究。造成政府管理及業者經營上的困擾，也直接威脅到購屋的權益，因此透過預售屋價格理論層次的探討，將有助於學術界對房屋預售制度的暸解。 由於房屋預售的交易標的為土地及房屋預售契約，而此約定於未來特定時間交貨之契約買賣形式，基本上即具有遠期交易與期貨的性質。因此本文利用儲存理論於無套利均衡的情形下，依序考慮有無不動產市場景氣變動與預售屋產品風險，來加以推演預售屋價格，最後導出預售屋訂價模式為成屋價格加成屋的持有成本，減預售屋的履約保證費用，加上預期景氣變動價差。模式中預售屋產品風險及市場景氣變動因素的考慮，為本研究學術上的主要貢獻。 進一步利用特徵價格方程式來固定品質，使成屋與預售屋在相同的基礎上比較，並藉由太平洋房屋所提供之民國77年∼82年大台北都會區實際成交案例8885筆來試驗。發現期間預售屋每戶價格平均比成屋高出33．08萬，即就大台北都會區的房屋市場而言，購屋者於此期間選購成屋較有利、比較各年之預售屋與成屋價格，除77年之基差為負以外， 78年∼82年的基差都大於零，其中基差變動的原因，可由本研究所建立之理論模式來加以詮釋。最後應用理論模式來分析房屋市場的基差，說明國內預售屋價格大多高於成屋價格的原因，並詮釋理論模式的政策意涵，與對購屋決策及建商經營的應用。 / The pre-sales housing system in Taiwan is a quite unique method allowing home buyers to speculate on or purchase their houses. The prices of pre-sales houses have become a leading indicator of the housing cycle in the market. However, limited knowledge is availab1e regarding how and why pre-sales house prices are determined, or what is the relationshiP between the pre-sales and existing house prices. 　 Determining Whether the theories of forward or futures transactions can account for the pre-sales house pricing behavior is highly desired since one characteristic feature of the pre-sales syStem is its similarity to forwqrd of futures transactions. In this study, an arbitrage perspective is used to discuss the difference (basis ) between pre-sales and existing house prices. Based on the storage theory, a pricing model suitable for pre-sales houses in Taiwan was established steP by step under the considerations of the presence of expected market changes, and the risk of product uncertainty in pre-sales houses.The price of pre-sales houses is equal to the price of existing houses on the transaction date plus the carry cost, and the price difference resulted from expected market changes minus the contract guarantee cost. The established model was then used to analyze the 8885 actual transaction cases provided by the Pacific Rehouse during l988 and l993. We used hedonic price. theory to analyze the differences between pre-sales and existing house price. As far as the overall market is concerned, the analysis found that the difference between the pre-sales house price on the transaction date and the price of the existing house was NT$330,800/unit. The basis was positive in l988 and negative during l989 and l993. By the pricing modeL, we can explain the price of pre-sales houses was greater then that of existing housing in most cases. The results of our research also can be applied to the real estate policy and the decision of purchasing house.

本研究主要依據國內房地產市場的特性，以生產時間落差、預期景氣與宣告效果、以及總體經濟等三個項目為主軸，針對房地產市場的景氣現象進行探討。首先，由生產階段的生產時間落差為出發點，探討房地產景氣與政府政策衝擊對生產時間落差的影響。再來，探討房地產次市場間的互動關係，瞭解預期景氣與宣告效果對不同房地產次市場景氣的影響。最後，探討總體經濟對房地產景氣的影響。在上述理念體系下，本研究進行各項理論的推演與實證分析，所得結論說明如下： 一、房地產景氣對生產時間影響部份 本文以建照面積與使照面積數量之波動關係，分析房地產景氣對生產時間落差之影響，結果發現使照面積與建照面積間存在穩定的長期關係，但建照可能因景氣不佳而取消，此使得長期建照面積大於使照面積，且建商會視房地產景氣的變動而調整興建速度。當房地產市場景氣時，興建速度較快，不景氣時興建速度較慢，使得生產時間落差會因房地產景氣變動而有所不同。另外，建照面積與使照面積間的關係亦會因政府相關政策的改變而產生衝擊，進而改變生產時間落差的長短。 由此觀之，國內房地產市場應較無預售制度的國家有較佳的市場調整機制，不過國內房地產景氣的波動卻依然劇烈，其原因可能在於政府決策與執行有相當長的時間落差，往往造成介入市場的時機不恰當，使得政府政策不但未能發揮反景氣循環的功能，反而成為助漲、助跌的促媒。另外，建築投資業缺乏健全管理亦是可能的原因之一，造成市場良莠不齊，在未經協調而彼此競爭下，往往錯誤評估個別預期銷售額而惡性競爭所造成。 二、預期景氣與宣告效果對房地產景氣影響部份 透過不同次市場的連結，本文發現當政府政策提前宣告時，將會有明顯的宣告效果產生，使得建商雖面對節節高昇的空屋率，依然大量搶建，但建照面積的增加則會促使房價與租金下跌。當前房地產市場的長期不景氣，政府未充分掌握房地產市場的景氣波動，並審慎評估政策的可能衝擊可說是問題的關鍵。此也意味，若政府日後真有必要再對房地產市場實施類似管制措施時，實應於事前進行謹慎的評估，並慎選實施的時機。 其次，市場參與者的預期在市場運作過程中扮演相當重要的角色，對於不同次市場景氣之影響亦不相同，當預期資本利得愈高時，會使房價上漲，但租金卻會減少，因為屋主願意以相對較低的租金將房屋出租，並由長期的資本利得中獲得補償，此可解釋為何國內長期租金與房價比長期偏低的現象。不過，近年來房地產市場面臨相當長時間的不景氣，加以921大地震對於國人傳統「有土斯有財」的理財觀念應有相當程度的衝擊，在預期資本利得相當微薄、甚至為負的情況下，未來租金可能回到較合理的水準。 三、總體經濟度房地產景氣之影響部份 本文檢視總體經濟變數對不同地區房地產景氣的影響，發現不論台北市或台北縣的預售屋房價與貨幣供給、空屋數、建照面積等變數均具有長期均衡關係存在，表示房地產景氣會因總體經濟變數與房地產市場本身供需變化而調整，但在考量結構變遷下，預售屋房價與建照面積間之關係已有所改變，意味未來在分析兩者間之關係時必須更加慎重。 其次，空屋數對於預售屋房價的影響彈性相對大於貨幣供給以及建照面積的影響，且相關變數對於台北市預售屋房價的影響相對大於台北縣，但台北縣預售屋房價消弭均衡誤差的速度較台北市為快，此乃因台北市住宅供給與需求彈性相對較小，當其他影響變數發生變動時，其預售屋房價受到的影響相對較大，故一旦偏離均衡時，必須花費較長的時間來調整。此結果亦顯示，要解決房地產市場長期的不景氣，從消化空餘屋著手最為有效。另外，不論台北市或台北縣預售屋房價與其他變數間的短期領先或落後關係並不明顯，此可能是因房地產市場自1986-1990年這一波房地產景氣後，已產生結構性變遷所造成。 / This dissertation consisted of three relative essays about real estate cycles. The first paper explores the influence of the real estate cycles on construction lags by analyzing the fluctuations of total floor areas of building permits and usage permits as a reflection of construction lags. Results support that a long-run equilibrium is existing between them; however, building permits may be dropped during a downswing market. In addition, the duration of construction lags is affected by changes in the real estate cycles and by the impacts of policies.　During a time of strong market, the duration of construction lags is cut shorter and is extended when the market is depressed. The second paper presents a simultaneous equation to examine how expectation of market participants and preannouncement of zoning control influence real estate cycles through three housing submarkets: rental market, sales market, and new construction market. One interesting finding is that, before the government announced a change in its zoning policy, builders constructed at maximum capacity despite fact that the real estate market was already depressed. Such construction only worsens the real estate market condition and extends the duration of depressed period. Another interesting finding is that the expected real estate cycles have different effects on rent and housing price. Although high capital gain expectations drive up the housing price, rent continues to decrease. A high vacancy rate, although decreasing the housing price, has little influence on construction starts. The last paper examines the long-term relationships between real estate cycles and macroeconomic variables by using cointegration test and error correction model. I found that both housing price of Taipei City and Taipei County do have long-term relationships with money supply, vacant houses, and new construction, but when considering market structure change, the relationship between housing price and new construction will change. I also found that the vacant houses have more influence on housing price than that of money supply and new construction, and the influences of these three variables on housing price are more sensitive in Taipei City than Taipei County. These results reflect the market structure of Taipei City and Taipei County is different, and the importance to solve vacant houses problem. Another surprise finding is that short-term lead or lag relationships among these variables are not significant. One possible reason is the structure change of real estate market after 1990.

我國自83學年度推動教育改革以來，至94學年度為止，學士班人數已由30萬2,093人增加為93萬8,648人、碩士班人數由3萬832人增加為14萬9,493人、博士班人數則由8,395人增加為2萬7,531人，可見近年來大專校院學生數可謂急遽地增加。而我們由94學年度大學考試分發入學錄取率高達89.08％，更顯示進入大學就讀已絕非難事。然而鑒於我國2005年的出生人口數已從2000年的30萬5,312人降至20萬5,854人，在此少子化的趨勢形成影響前，93學年度大專校院的缺額數卻已高達6萬471人，顯現出大專校院的招生呈現出明顯供過於求的現象。研究者於是對中央主管教育行政機關以「總量管制」方式核定大專校院招生名額的機制產生濃厚研究興趣。 　　本研究採用「文獻分析法」及「問卷調查法」等兩個研究方法進行研究，其中旨在探討此大專校院招生名額總量管制之政策沿革與現況，並以更多元、開放的角度探討大專校院招生名額總量管制應達到哪些預期效益且嘗試建構其因素模式，接著依據前述預期效益建構出適當的大專校院招生名額總量管制指標，最後則探討不同背景變項(如性別、年齡、最高學歷、身份、學校體系、學校性質等)的受試者對大專校院招生名額總量管制預期效益與指標看法之差異。 　　本研究以李克特六點式量表、網路問卷形式設計成「大專校院招生名額總量管制預期效益與其指標調查問卷」來作為研究工具，並以「兩階段取樣」的方式來廣泛蒐集大專校院教師、職員與學生等研究對象的同意程度看法。其中第一階段係分別藉由函請各校轉寄E-mail通知該校教職員及學生上網填答、至各校bbs發表文章進行問卷施測通知等兩種途徑，獲得回收樣本數8,473份，扣除無效問卷317份後，總計有效回收問卷為8,156份，並據以建置為樣本資料庫。第二階段則採分層隨機抽樣方式分別於大專校院教師、職員及學生等三層各抽出336個樣本，總計獲得1,008個樣本。 此1,008個樣本將分別以SPSS 13.0及LISERL8.72等兩套統計軟體進行資料分析，其中將採用次數分配與百分比、算術平均數與標準差、t檢定、獨立樣本單因子變異數分析、驗證性因素分析等統計方法進行分析，並經專家效度、聚合效度、區別效度及交叉驗證效度、Cronbach’s α係數、潛在變項的組合信度、個別觀察變項的信度等檢定過程中證實本研究具有良好的研究效度與信度。 　　本研究總計建構出13個大專校院招生名額總量管制預期效益，其同意程度平均數(M)介於4.48∼5.28之間，同意百分比(P)則介於81.5%∼96.4%之間；至於此預期效益之因素模式則也獲得相當良好的適配結果，並據以證實大專校院教師、職員與學生對於大專校院招生名額總量管制預期效益的同意程度看法，會受到「保障大專校院教學品質」、「符合學生性向與需求」「符合就業市場人力與專業需求」、「大專校院競爭力之維持與提昇」等4個潛在因素構面(或稱構念)的影響。接著，並依據前述預期效益建構出26個大專校院招生名額總量管制指標，其同意程度平均數(M)介於4.30∼4.94之間，同意百分比(P)則介於79.0%∼93.9%之間。 此外，本研究亦發現，在性別、年齡、最高學歷、身分、專兼職情形、學校體系與學校性質等7個不同背景變項的受試者對大專校院招生名額總量管制預期效益與指標之同意程度看法的差異中，除了不同「學校體系」變項的受試者對指標看法沒有顯著差異、但對預期效益看法有顯著差異外，其餘6個不同背景變項皆在預期效益與指標的看法上有顯著差異。 最後，本研究並依據研究成果，提出下列具體建議： 一、總量管制預期效益不宜只考量「維持教學品質」，應進一步關注學生 　　需求、就業市場需求、以及學校競爭力等方面的預期效益之達成情 　　形。 二、總量管制指標不宜只考量到生師比、師資結構與校舍面積等指標，應　　以多元觀點發展出更多指標，以充分掌握招生管理資訊。 三、總量管制不應侷限在「每年成長總量的管控」，而應納入「減少招生　　名額」的情境條件。 四、宜適度減少各校擴增招生名額的誘因。 五、宜研議總量管制業務整併之可行性。 六、總量管制資料的蒐集宜化被動為主動，以掌握客觀審查資訊。 / When Taiwan setting into education reforms from 1994 school years till 2005 school years, the students at classes of bachelor degree increase to 938,648 from 302,093, the students at classes of master's degree increase to 149,493 from 30,832, the students at classes of doctor's degree increase to 27,531 from 8,395. It is perceived that students of higher education increasing rapidly. Furthermore, the admission rates of universities' enrollment paths by entrance examination grades reaches 89.08％, it appears that entering into universities is not hard anymore. However, since population of births had reduced to 205,854 at the year of 2005 from 305,312 at the year of 2000, and before the impact of trends of few-children, the vacancies of enrollment of higher education had reached 60,471, we can find a obvious phenomenon that the supply of enrollment of higher education exceeds the demand. So I have a strong interest in the mechanism of how Ministry of Education ratifying the enrollment of higher education by the method of "Total Amount Control". 　　The study adopts two approaches, that is "literature review" and "questionnaire survey", and it explores the policy's developing progress and current situation of the enrollment's total amount control of higher education. Furthermore, it explores what expected effectiveness of the enrollment's total amount control of higher education should be reached with the diverse and liberal viewpoints, and tries to construct its factor model. Then according to the expected effectiveness, we establishes appropriate indicators of the enrollment's total amount control of higher education. Finally, we explore if subjects with different background variables, such as sex, age, degree, identity, full/part time, system of school, character of school, will have significant differences about opinions of expected effectiveness and indicators of the enrollment's total amount control of higher education. 　　The study designs the "questionnaire of expected effectiveness and indicators of the enrollment's total amount control of higher education" with Likert six point scale and network questionnaire, and broadly collects samples of teachers, officers, and students of higher education by the methods of "Two stage Sampling". At the first stage, I use two survey ways, that is e-mail informing and bbs informing, and I get 8,473 returned samples, and finally get 8,156 valid samples after reducing 317 invalid samples. At the second stage, I gains 1,008 samples from three layers of teachers, officers, and students of higher education with "stratified random sampling". 　　The 1,008 samples will be analysed by two software of SPSS 13.0 and LISERL8.72. The ways of analysis include frequency and percentage, average and standard deviation, t-test, one-way ANOVA, confirmatory factor analysis. Furthermore, after the examining of expert validity, convergent validity, discriminant validity, cross- validity, Cronbach's α, composite reliability, and individual observed variables' reliability, we have confirmed the study has good study validity and reliability. The study finally constructs 13 expected effectiveness of the enrollment's total amount control of higher education, and its average of agree extent between 4.48 to 5.28, its agree percentage between 81.5% to 96.4%. Furthermore, the factor model of that expected effectiveness has good fit results too, it confirms that the opinions on expected effectiveness of the enrollment's total amount control of higher education will be influenced by the latent factors of "Ensure the teaching quality of higher education", "Matching with students' aptitude and needs", "Matching with manpower and specialty's needs of job market", "keep and promote the competitive ability of higher education". Then according to the expected effectiveness, we establishes 26 indicators of the enrollment's total amount control of higher education, and its average of agree extent between 4.30 to 4.94, its agree percentage between 79.0% to 93.9%. 　　Furthermore, the study find among the opinions' difference of agree extent on expected effectiveness and indicators of the enrollment's total amount control of higher education from 7 different background variables, such as sex, age, degree, identity, full/part time, system of school, character of school, beside the "system of school" haven't significant difference on indicators but have on expected effectiveness, other 6 different background variables all have significant difference on expected effectiveness and indicators. 　　Finally, according to the results of this study, I propose some suggestions as follow: 1.The expected effectiveness of total amount control shouldn't be restricted within "maintain teaching quality", we should consider the expected effectiveness' implement of students' need, job market's need, and school's competitiveness further. 2.The indicators of total amount control shouldn't be 　restricted within the indicators of student-teacher rates, 　structure of teacher, superficial contents of school 　buildings only, we need more indicators with diversified 　viewpoints to get information for enrollment's managing. 3.The total amount control shouldn't be restricted by "the 　amount control of every years' growth", we need to add the 　conditions of "reducing enrollment". 4.We should try to appropriately reduce the "inducing factors" 　of universities increasing enrollment. 5.Ministry of Education should try to merge the affairs of 　total amount control from different departments. 6.We should collect the data of total amount control actively 　instead of passive, so that we can get objective information 　to examine.

本研究欲探討以個人認知需求為調節變項，考量框架效應和個人與工作適配度，是否對工作預期和求職吸引力產生影響。先前Buda和Charnov (2003)的研究僅闡釋低認知需求較易受框架效應影響，而本研究則欲進一步瞭解，是否高認知需求者在評估求職吸引力時，受個人與工作適配度影響較大。本研究採2x2 x2受試者間之實驗設計，所操弄獨變項為：框架效應（正負相框架訊息）。依變項為「求職吸引力」，「認知需求」為調節變項。 本研究之受試者為204位大學生，研究結果顯示個人與工作適配度與求職吸引力有正相關，當個人與工作適配度愈高，求職吸引力愈高。當應徵者為高認知需求者，個人與工作適配度與求職吸引力間的關係高於應徵者為低認知需求者。研究者分別就結果加以討論，提出可能的解釋，並檢討本研究之限制與貢獻。

本文主要目的在嘗試建立一個包括總需求、總供給，預期和不確定因素的開放總體經 濟模型，並探討在此模型下的最適資本移動政策，最適外匯政策及最適財政和貨幣政 策。 過去的文獻中，在求最適資本移動政策時，並未加入預期，總供給面及不確定因素， 本論文第一部份將探討加入這些因素後，最適資本移動係數的選擇。此外根據以前的 文獻，在探討最適外匯政策時，均假定資本是完全移動的，本文第二部分將解放此假 設，探討滿足損失函數（Loss function ）––即所得之變異數為最小的最適外匯政 策，同時可以證明出資本完全移動下之結論只是本文結論中的一個特例而已。本文第 三部份將利用所建立之模型探討在各種不同匯率制度（固定、管理及浮動匯率）下之 最適財政及貨幣政策，並希望能找出最適之政策搭配。

第一章緒論，說明本文研究動機、目的、研究方法、研究的範圍及有關名詞的定義。 第二章擴大農場經營規模的問題，首先瞭解土地改革後的農業發展及現況，其次闡明 大農場經營的理論，再就目前各種擴大農場經營規模的方法加以分析並歸納其問題， 然後探討農企業方式擴大規模的理論。 第三章工業區模式擴大農場規模的調查，調查宜蘭龍德及嘉義民雄兩工業區原農地被 征收之土地所有人之現況。就其徵收前後之生活，勞動力的就業，農業資產的運用與 轉換情況及其意願，對當地社會、經濟的影響情形加以分析。 第四章推行農企業公司之必要配合措施，就前章研究分析結果，探討財經政策、社會 政策、法令制度與修訂及行政上等各方面應如何配合。 第五章以農企業公司擴大農場經營規模之評估，分析推行農企業之預期效益，並探討 其可行笥。 第六章結論，提出本文研究的結果。