Esta tesis constituye un estudio empírico de la privatización de la seguridad social en Perú, con énfasis sobre consumo, ahorro y bienestar. El primer capítulo describe la reforma y la posiciona como un valioso caso de estudio. El segundo evalúa el efecto de la privatización sobre el bienestar de los ancianos y sus dependientes inmediatamente después de la reforma, cuando la seguridad social migraba de un estado estacionario a otro. Se encuentra un efecto positivo, aunque el impacto mayor no fue experimentado ni por los hogares más pobres ni por los hogares de mayor edad. El tercero, en lugar de evaluar la reforma, utiliza la variabilidad provista por ésta para responder una antigua pregunta económica: hasta qué punto el ahorro de pensiones compensa el ahorro voluntario. Se encuentra que, por cada dólar de seguro provisto por el sistema de pensiones, el ahorro voluntario decrece entre 70 centavos y un dólar. / This thesis is an empirical study of the privatization of social security in Peru, with a particular emphasis on consumption, saving and welfare. The first chapter provides a general description of the reform and positions it as a valuable study case. The second chapter evaluates the effect of the privatization on the well-being of the elderly and their dependents immediately after the reform, when social security was moving from a steady state to the other. It concludes that the effect was positive, although the larger impact was experienced neither by the poorest households nor by the oldest households. The third chapter, instead of evaluating the reform, uses the variability provided by the reform to analyze an old economic question: to what extent pension saving crowds out voluntary saving. It finds that for every dollar of insurance provided by the pension system, voluntary savings decrease by 70 cents to one dollar.

Esta tesis contribuye a la literatura de política fiscal y monetaria óptima. Primero analizo cómo el resultado de tasas impositivas suaves, que habitualmente se obtiene en modelos de política fiscal óptima, se ve alterado en un contexto de división internacional de riesgo con compromiso parcial. Encuentro que la presencia de compromiso parcial altera significativamente la dinámica de las variables fiscales, con respecto al caso de compromiso total. La volatilidad de la tasa impositiva aumenta. En segundo lugar, estudio la política fiscal y monetaria en un modelo con shocks idiosincráticos no asegurables a la productividad laboral. Encuentro que, cuando el gobierno es utilitarista, la autoridad monetaria fija la tasa de interés nominal a cero. Los efectos agregados de bienestar son pequeños, mientras que los efectos individuales son grandes. Los beneficiarios de la inflación son agentes pobres con baja productividad, mientras que los agentes de clase media y alta siempre son perdedores. / This thesis contributes to the literature on optimal fiscal and monetary policy. First, I analyze how the tax-smoothing result obtained in models of optimal fiscal policy is altered in a context of international risk sharing with limited commitment. I find that the presence of limited commitment alters substantially the dynamics of the fiscal variables with respect to the full commitment case. In particular, the volatility of the tax rate increases. Second, I study the optimal monetary and fiscal policy mix in a model in which agents are subject to idiosyncratic uninsurable shocks to their labor productivity. I find that, for a utilitarian government, the monetary policy-maker sets nominal interest rates to zero. Although the aggregate welfare costs of inflation are small, individual costs and benefits are large. Net winners from inflation are poor, less productive agents, while middle-class and rich households are always net losers.

En el capítulo I, se examina el rendimiento de los activos financieros que representan las "mejores ideas" de los gestores de los fondos de inversión. Las inversiones para las que un gestor activo augura un buen rendimiento obtienen mejor retorno de mercado, asi como el resto de inversiones en sus carteras. En el capítulo II, se muestra explicitamente que los gestores que concentran sus carteras en un número reducido de activos, superan reiteradamente sus benchmarks y otros fondos más diversificados. Esta diferencia de rendimiento se puede explicar gracias a las diferencias en la exposición a factores de riesgo valorados por el mercado y al mayor talento de los gestores que se centran en invertir en activos de alta incertidumbre. En el capítulo III, se estudia la información contenida en las transacciones de activos y se muestra que las decisiones recientes de los gestores predicen el rendimiento futuro de las inversiones. Mientras que las compras llevadas a cabo por gestores con una habilidad superior se asocian a un rendimiento futuro anormalmente positivo, los gestores poco hábiles cometen errores de forma sistemática en la selección y en las transacciones de activos. / In Chapter I, we examine the performance of stocks that represent mutual fund managers' "best ideas". The stock that active managers display the most conviction towards ex-ante, significantly outperforms the market, as well as the other stocks in those managers' portfolios. In Chapter II, I explicitly show that managers, who concentrate their portfolios into a small number of stocks, consistently beat their benchmarks and their more diversified peers. This performance gap can be explained by differing portfolio exposures towards priced risk factors as well as stronger abilities of concentrated managers when investing in stocks with high uncertainty of information. In Chapter III, I study the information content of portfolio rebalances by mutual fund managers and show that their recent trading decisions predict future stock returns. While purchases by skilled managers are associated with positive future abnormal performance, unskilled managers systematically commit errors in the selection and trading of stocks.

Die gegenwärtige Regelung der SächsPfleinrVO für gesondert berechenbare Aufwendungen nach § 82 Abs. 3 SGB XI für Investitionen und Instandhaltungsaufwendungen in Pflegeeinrichtungen enthält einige grundlegende Problembereiche, die einer ökonomischen Logik systematisch widersprechen. Gegenstand des Gutachtens ist die Darstellung der verschiedenen Problembereiche der SächsPfleinrVO und möglicher Lösungsmöglichkeiten. Die Problembereiche können dabei in vier Bereiche zusammengefasst werden: 1. Systematische Problematiken der SächsPfleinrVO 2011/13 2. Verbraucherschutzprobleme der Neuregelung 3. Ausgelöster Verwaltungsaufwand durch die neue SächsPfleinrVO 2011/13 4. Probleme in der operativen Umsetzung der SächsPfleinrVO 2011/13 Dem Erkenntnisinteresse des Auftraggebers folgend liegt der Analyseschwerpunkt bei Problemen, die insbesondere aus Pflegeeinrichtungen resultieren, die vollstationäre Dauerpflegeplätze anbieten. Nach der Darstellung der rechtlichen Grundlagen und der Datengrundlage des Gutachtens, werden diese vier Problembereiche anhand von Beispielen erläutert und mögliche Problemlösungen vorgeschlagen. Mit einer Zusammenfassung und Schlussfolgerungen wird ein Fazit gezogen.

Athanase d’Alexandrie est connu par les historiens de l’Église comme étant le pasteur et le théologien qui incarne et défend la foi chrétienne traditionnelle concernant le mystère de l’incarnation du Logos. Lorsque un concile est convoqué à Nicée, en 325, pour mettre fin à la crise christologique suscitée par la prédication d’Arius, le « pape d’Égypte » se déclare le défenseur acharné du « symbole de foi » signé à cette occasion et dont l’originalité était constituée par l’introduction du terme Ôjio o u c t iq s , le Fils est consubstantiel au Père. Nos recherches ont eu pour but de montrer que le Logos de Dieu fait chair pour notre salut par philanthropie divine occupe une place centrale dans la pensée de l’évêque alexandrin. Nourrit par les Écritures et animé par la foi et l’amour du Christ, Athanase se montre un théologien et un catéchète passionné pour l’incarnation du Logos. Son désir et de transmettre à ses fidèles la profonde conviction qui l’habite : « Le Logos s’est fait lui-même homme pour que nous soyons faits Dieu ». Pour cela, il faut qu’il soit vrai homme et vrai Dieu.

The study is intended to identify relevant channels and possibly biasing factors with respect to fiscal multipliers, and thus to contribute to improving the precision of multiplier forecasts. This is done by, first, defining the concept of the multiplier used in the present study, presenting the main theoretical channels of influence as discussed in the literature and the problems of empirical identification. Second, by conducting a meta-regression analysis on the reported multipliers from a unique data set of 1069 multiplier observations and the respective study characteristics in order to derive quantitative stylzed facts. Third, by developing a simple multiplier model that explicitly takes into account the time elapse of the multiplier process as an explanatory factor that has been largely overlooked by the relevant theoretical literature. Fourth, by identifying, for US macroeconomic time series data, the extent to which fiscal multiplier estimates could be biased in the presence of financial cycles that have not been taken into account by the relevant empirical literature.:List of Figures IV List of Tables VI List of Acronyms VII List of Symbols IX 1 General Introduction, Aim and Scope 2 Principles of the Measurement, Theory and Estimation of Fiscal Multipliers 2.1 Introduction 7 2.2 Definition and Measurement of the Fiscal Multiplier 7 2.3 Determinants of the Fiscal Multiplier 14 2.4 Principles of Estimating Fiscal Multipliers 29 2.5 Conclusions 38 3 A Meta-Regression Analysis of Fiscal Multipliers 43 3.1 Introduction 43 3.2 Literature Review 45 3.3 Data Set and Descriptive Statistics 49 3.4 Meta Regression—Method 54 3.5 Meta Regression—Moderator Variables 56 3.6 Meta Regression—Results 60 3.7 Conclusions 74 4 The Multiplier Principle, Credit-Money and Time 82 4.1 Introduction 82 4.2 Literature Review 85 4.3 Developing an Augmented Multiplier Model 89 4.4 Dynamic Stability of the Multiplier Process 106 4.5 Identifying the Lag-length 109 4.6 Conclusions 111 5 Financial Cycles and Fiscal Multiplier Estimations 114 5.1 Introduction 114 5.2 Literature Review 116 5.3 Asset and Credit Markets and Fiscal Multiplier Estimations 118 5.4 A Formal Framework 120 5.5 Empirical Strategy 124 5.6 Data 125 5.7 Structure and Identification 126 5.8 Effects of Fiscal Policy Changes—Baseline vs. Augmented Models 132 5.9 Robustness 140 5.10 Conclusions 142 6 General Conclusions and Research Prospects 148 Bibliography 153

Mongolia is a country whose Gross Domestic Income relies heavily on raw material prices. The recent downturn in important commodity prices like copper or coal affect national income, taxes and the social welfare system. Mongolia should try to diversify its industries further to become less dependent on commodity business cycles. Mongolia should also try to lower the rate of corruption, which in many countries is highly correlated with mining businesses. Modern high tech companies and business technologies are corruption averse. Relationships based on corruption are short-lived and instable. This is what those companies do not like. A country like Mongolia that strives towards high wealth and less dependence on commodities should try to get rid of corruption.

Mongolia is a country whose Gross Domestic Income relies heavily on raw material prices. The recent downturn in important commodity prices like copper or coal affect national income, taxes and the social welfare system. Mongolia should try to diversify its industries further to become less dependent on commodity business cycles. Mongolia should also try to lower the rate of corruption, which in many countries is highly correlated with mining businesses. Modern high tech companies and business technologies are corruption averse. Relationships based on corruption are short-lived and instable. This is what those companies do not like. A country like Mongolia that strives towards high wealth and less dependence on commodities should try to get rid of corruption.

Entre histoire du capitalisme, sociologie des élites et sociologie de l’État, cette thèse prend pour objet le rôle de la direction du Trésor – direction phare du ministère des Finances – dans la fabrique de « mondes » à la fois hybrides et intégrés d’institutions, de réseaux et d’acteurs, aux sommets du pouvoir et au croisement entre État et affaires, administration et économie, public et privé. A partir d’une enquête mêlant entretiens biographiques, base prosopographique et fonds d’archives publics et privés, elle explore les mécanismes concrets par lesquels la direction du Trésor produit du flou, du flux et de la hiérarchie au sein de ses mondes, dans une configuration historique précise (milieu des années 1960- milieu des années 1990). La thèse est organisée selon trois niveaux d’analyse des relations entre le Trésor et ses mondes. Au niveau écologique – celui des alliances – elle montre la transformation des coalitions de soutien du Trésor pour peser dans l’État, du Plan à la « place », organisant les modalités du ralliement de la direction aux réformes libérales à partir des années 1960. Au niveau institutionnel, elle analyse les échanges qui forgent la porosité entre le Trésor et ses mondes, et les contraintes institutionnelles qui leur donnent sens et forme, et montre que la direction du Trésor fonctionne alors comme une entreprise de placement. Au niveau individuel, elle analyse la construction des carrières dominantes (de la « grandeur ») au sein des mondes du Trésor, et les liens d’obligation, de cooptation et de parrainage sur lesquelles elles s’appuient. La thèse contribue, ainsi, à documenter les formes d’indifférenciation des activités qui caractérisent les sommets de l’État. / Between history of capitalism, sociology of elites and public administration, this PhD thesis explores how the French Treasury Department brings together gravitating financial institutions, networks and actors into integrated and hybrid "worlds", situated at the "heights of power" and between administration and business, public and private interests. Drawing on biographical interviews, prosopographical data and public and private archival collections, it focuses on the concrete mechanisms through which the Treasury both blurs boundaries inside its worlds, and re-create hierarchies between the agents who circulate within them. The thesis analyzes the relationships between the Treasury and its worlds at three distinct levels. At the ecological level — that of the Treasury alliances in policy-making — it highlights the Treasury’ changing coalitions of support, from the Great planning coalition of the 1950s to the "place financière" of the 1970s, and shows how this transformation helps us account for the Treasury’ embrace of financial reforms in the 1970s. At the institutional level, it analyzes how various organizational constraints at the Treasury shape exchanges between the Department and its worlds. Finally, at the individual level, it looks at the construction of dominant careers ("grandeur") inside the worlds of the Treasury, and at the interpersonal ties and decentralized logics of co-optation, patronage and moral indebtedness they draw on.

El objetivo de la presente tesis doctoral consiste, en primer lugar, en investigar si la influencia de los accionistas principales sobre el valor de la empresa se encuentra condicionada por la existencia de conflicto de intereses entre accionistas y directivos, de manera que cuanto más alto sea el beneficio público esperado mayor será la disposición del accionista a asumir los costes derivados de la supervisión. Nuestro segundo objetivo consiste en analizar si en el mercado de capitales español la adquisición de bloques accionariales se encuentra condicionada por el beneficio público que puede derivarse de la supervisión o por la ventaja informativa que poseen los adquirentes, que pondría de manifiesto la necesidad de la aplicación estricta de los códigos de conducta y de un seguimiento más exhaustivo de las empresas con mayor asimetría informativa. El análisis empírico realizado, utilizando la metodología de datos de panel y la regresión logística, nos permite establecer las siguientes conclusiones. En primer lugar, el carácter supervisor de la propiedad accionarial es más intenso en aquellas empresas en las que el potencial conflicto de intereses entre accionistas y directivos es mayor. Asimismo, la existencia de mecanismos de gobierno alternativos en la empresa, que garanticen la supervisión de las decisiones directivas, resta significatividad a la función de vigilancia que ejercen determinados inversores. Por último, los inversores principales de la empresa tratan de compensar los costes de supervisión mediante transacciones en el mercado de control parcial, de manera que se observa un comportamiento comprador cuando se anticipa una mejora en la gestión empresarial derivada de un incremento en la supervisión y cuando existe una mayor asimetría informativa de manera que pueden beneficiarse de su posición de inversores mejor informados. / The aim of this thesis is, firstly, to analyse if the influence of majority shareholders over company value depends on the existence of conflict of interests between managers and shareholders. Therefore, the higher the expected social benefit is, the higher interest of shareholders to assume the costs derived form monitoring. The second aim of this study is to analyse if the purchase of share blocks in the Spanish capital market is motivated by the value creation derived from monitoring, or by the informative advantage of the acquirers and insider trading, which would highlight the need of an strict application of Governance Codes and vigilance of firms with asymmetric information. The empirical analysis is accomplished using panel data methodology and a logistic regression. Our empirical analysis allow us to conclude that the supervisory role of ownership is more intense in firms where the potential conflict of interest between shareholders and managers is greater, and therefore the value of the firm can be increased through a specific composition of its shareholders. Moreover, the existence of alternative governance mechanisms, that guarantee managerial decisions monitoring, reduce the importance of the investor's supervision role. Lastly, we observe a purchase behaviour when an improvement in managerial running is foreseen as a consequence of the supervision, and when there is more asymmetric information and therefore the acquirers can benefit from their position of better informed investors.