This paper investigates the automatic stabilizer and the underlying factors behind its function. The paper includes both a literature review and an empirical analysis. The literature review discusses the IS-LM and Mundell-Fleming models and different ways to quantify the automatic stabilizer. Based on the theory, the relationship between volatility in GDP and the size of the automatic stabilizers is then analyzed with the help of regressions. Our main result shows a negative relation between these two variables. This effect seems to be decreasing over time, which may be explained by an increased openness. However, it is hard to tell if the decreasing effect is a long-term development or just a result of the most recent financial crisis.

The purpose of this thesis is to investigate whether Okun’s law is valid within Sweden. Furthermore, we are also interested in studying how it varies with different genders and age groups. Quarterly data on GDP and unemployment between the years 1980 to 2015 is used. Three different models have been tested on their ability to estimate Okun’s law and the model with the highest explanatory power was chosen. The results show that unemployment among men are more affected by changes in GDP growth than women, which likely is because more men tend to work in the private sector and women in the public sector. Young workers are also affected to a greater degree than older workers, due to how the employment protection act (LAS) works in Sweden. / Syftet med uppsatsen är främst att undersöka den så kallade Okuns lag i Sverige, och mer specifikt studera om sambandet varierar mellan kön och åldersgrupper. Kvartalsdata på BNP och arbetslöshet mellan åren 1980 till 2015 har använts. Tre olika modeller har testats på hur väl de kunde förklara Okuns lag i Sverige, varav den ena modellen hade högre förklaringsgrad. Resultaten visar att män påverkades till en högre grad av förändringar i ekonomins tillväxt än kvinnor. Detta beror sannolikt på att män i högre grad tenderar att jobba inom den privata sektorn och kvinnor inom offentliga sektorn, vilken inte är lika känslig för konjunktursvängningar. Vi fann även att yngre arbetare påverkas till en högre grad än äldre av förändringar i ekonomins tillväxt. Detta beror sannolikt på hur lagen om anställningsskydd (LAS) är uppbyggd i Sverige.

In this thesis we aim to examine the economic impact of peacekeeping provided by the United Nations (UN) in conflict-affected countries around the globe. The main interest of this thesis is to estimate the possible economic impact that UN peacekeeping operations may have had on conflict-affected countries’ economies between 1989-2019. We aim to do this by investigating if there is a positive causal relationship between UN peacekeeping operation (PKO) and GDP/capita. This is done by examining previous research and conducting an empirical analysis using a difference-in-differences method. Our model examines the change in GDP/capita levels for both a treatment and non-treatment group, defining PKO as treatment. Data on the conflicts, UN peacekeeping operations and other relevant variables was collected from well-established open sources. The results imply that PKO has a positive impact on GDP/capita development, but that the effect most likely goes through the effect that PKO has on our mediator variables, that in turn positively affect GDP levels. Furthermore, our results indicate that the size of the mission, in terms of military strength, does seem to increase the economic effect.

Det finns stora skillnader i nivån av BNP per capita mellan länder som inte går att förklara med nuvarande teorier om konvergens, det vill säga att fattiga länder kommer att komma ifatt rika länder på lång sikt. I stället verkar skillnaderna i länders inkomstnivå bestå. Denna studie syftar till att undersöka om, och i så fall i vilken utsträckning, en del av skillnaden mellan BNP per capita i olika länder kan förklaras genom demokrati. Studien utgår huvudsakligen från två teorier, endogen tillväxtteori och moderniseringsteori. Som metod kommer multipel regressionsanalys av paneldata att användas med samtliga världens länder mellan 2010 och 2019. Sambandet söks för hela populationen men också uppdelat på världsdel, inkomstnivå och typ av regim. Studien visar att det finns ett positivt samband mellan demokrati och BNP per capita sett till hela populationen men i olika hög grad i urval baserat på världsdel, inkomstnivå och demokratiindex. Endast för gruppen höginkomstländer var sambandet negativt, men när auktoritära höginkomstländer uteslöts fanns ett positivt samband även för den gruppen. / There are big differences in the level of GDP per capita between countries, that cannot be explained by differences in the current capital stock levels or workforce according to theories on convergence. This study aims to examine if, and to what extent, a part of the difference in GDP can be explained by democracy. The study takes its theoretical frame of reference from endogenous growth theory and modernization theory. The method used is multiple regression analysis of panel data with all countries between 2010 and 2019. The regressions analysis is performed on the whole population as well as divided based on continents, income groups and type of regime. The study shows that there is a positive correlation between democracy and GDP per capita, but to different extents in the different samples. Only for high income countries where there a negative correlation, but that turned positive when authoritarian high-income countries were excluded from the sample.

Bakgrund: Prognoser för den framtida konjunkturutvecklingen är av värde för såväl allmänheten som beslutsfattare i många led. De förlitar sig på olika former av ekonomiska prognoser för att justera sina förväntningar på efterfrågan och prissättning därefter.Forskningen kring transportsektorn som en konjunkturindikator har visat olika resultat beroende på flera faktorer men Tyskland som har en liknande transportsektor som Sverige introducerade nyligen ett nytt konjunktursmått som var baserat på tunga transporter. Syfte: Uppsatsen syftar till att med statistiska metoder undersöka om det finns eventuella samband mellan efterfrågan på transport genom tunga fordon och hela eller delar av den ekonomiska utvecklingen i Sverige som är av sådant slag att olika variabler kopplat till godstransport kan användas för att prognostisera ekonomisk upp- och nedgång. Genomförande: För att uppfylla studiens syfte har sekundärdata samlats in från OECD samt SCB & Trafa. Variablerna som hämtats är BNP, IPI, transportarbete & nyregistreringar. För att klargöra huruvida variablerna samspelar på kort & lång sikt så testar vi för kointegration och Granger-Kausalitet. Slutsats: Vi finner inga bevis på att transportarbete eller nyregistreringar innehåller värdefull information för att prognosticera framtida konjunkturvärden. Vi finner samband mellan BNP & IPI och nyregistreringar både på kort och lång sikt men tvärtom från vad studien syftade till visar vi att BNP och IPI föregår nyregistreringar i testet för Granger-kausalitet. / Background: Predicting economic growth is valuable for both the general public and decision makers in different parts of society. They rely on different kinds of econometric predictions to adjust their expectations related to price and demand. Studies based around the ability of transportation to predict future values of economic growth has shown differing results depending on various factors but Germany, who has a relatively similar transportation sector as Sweden, has recently implemented a new economic growth measure based on road freight. Aim: Through econometrical methods we aimed to study the relationship between the transportation sector, more specifically the road freight part, and economic growth and study road freights ability to predict future economic growth in Sweden. Completion: To fulfill the aim of the study we collected secondary data from SCB and OECD & Trafa. Our data collection consisted of four variables which was GDP and IPI as economic growth proxies and new registrations for road freight vehicles and road freight per kilometer were chosen as variables for the road freight sector. To understand how road freight could predict future economic growth for both short- and long term we tested for Granger-causality and cointegration. Conclusion: Our study shows no evidence for road freight being a valuable indicator for predicting future economic growth. Relationships were found between GDP & IPI and new registrations on short- and long term but in contradiction to our studies purpose the relationship was found to be from GDP & IPI to new registrations and not the other way around.

denna textanalys har författarna Jackson (2009) Prosperity without growth – economics for a finite planet och Wallerstein (2004) World system analysis – an introduction analyserats. Syftet med textanalysen är att jämföra Wallersteins och Jacksons texter utifrån deras syn på det nuvarande ekonomiska systemet och möjlighet till ekonomisk frikoppling. Resultat: Ingen av författarna anser att det finns någon möjlighet till ekonomisk frikoppling men anledningarna till detta skiljer sig mellan författarna. Jackson menar att fortsatt ekonomisk utveckling bland annat är viktigt för att finansiera välfärdsinstitutioner. Vissa former av utveckling har oundvikliga inslag av materiellt behov, exempelvis utbyggnad av infrastrukturer. Därav är ekonomisk frikoppling inte möjlig. Enligt Jackson måste mänskligheten söka mening i andra värden än det ekonomiska. Wallerstein menar att det nuvarande ekonomiska systemet är i grunden orättvist och exploaterar bland annat människor i periferin. Det här systemet kan inte repareras, det är först när det nuvarande ekonomiska systemet, som han kallar världskapitalistismen, försvinner som vi vet vilket system som reser sig ur dess aska. / In this text analysis the authors Jackson (2009) Prosperity without growth – economics for a finite planet and Wallerstein (2004) World system analysis – an introduction have been analyzed. The purpose of the text analysis was to compare Wallerstein and Jacksons texts upon their views of the current economic system and its ability to decouple. Result: Either authors believes that there exist a possibility to decouple but the reach this conclusion in different ways. Jackson claims that furtherer economic growths is important to finance welfare institutions. Some forms of development have inherent materiel need such as further development of infrastructure. This is why decoupling isn’t possible. Humankind have to seek different values other the economic ones. Wallerstein claims that the current economic system in its foundation is unfair and exploit people in the periphery and this system can’t be repaired. First when the world capitalistic economy disappears a new system will arise from the ashes.

This thesis examines through the means of a comparative perspective, factors which have allowed the British National Party to enjoy recent electoral success at the local level under the leadership of party chairman Nick Griffin. Such electoral successes have arisen despite the seemingly relative obscurity of the party at the turn of the century. A number of different aspects are examined in order to achieve this aim. The history of the far right in the UK is examined to establish whether the BNP have changed their stance in comparison to previous far right movements. The BNP are also investigated comparatively with other West European parties who have enjoyed national success, as a means of discovering whether the party are similar to their far right neighbours and why they have not enjoyed similar national success. The press coverage of the BNP is examined at a local and national level, using content analysis and the LexisNexis database. The thesis looks at the role played by the BNP in local elections and the decline of participation in political activity, to establish if there is a link between these two factors. Finally a case study is taken of Calderdale in West Yorkshire, to establish directly if any of the above factors can be directly applied to BNP electoral success in this district. The research discovers that there are opportunities for the BNP to establish a connection with the electorate in local politics which are not necessarily available at times of general election.

Bacillary Necrosis of Pangasius (BNP) caused by Edwardsiella ictaluri is considered to be the most serious disease occurring in farmed striped catfish (Pangasianodon hypophthalmus) in Vietnam. This disease has had an increasing impact over the last ten years and has been reported to cause 50-90% mortality of stocks during a single outbreak. Data obtained from natural outbreaks of E. ictaluri in striped catfish showed the role of environmental factors in the establishment and progression of this disease. At present, factors affecting the virulence and transmission of E. ictaluri in striped catfish are poorly understood. The central hypothesis of this thesis focuses on the complex picture of the environmental factors and infectivity of E. ictaluri in striped catfish. In this study, 80 isolates of E. ictaluri recovered from natural clinical disease outbreaks occurring in striped catfish farms between 2002 and 2011 located in 4 distinct geographical areas within Vietnam were characterised using a variety of methods. The biochemical profiles showed that E. ictaluri isolates from striped catfish in Vietnam have similar phenotypic characteristics to other E. ictaluri isolates from other infected fish species. These data showed high levels of phenotypic homogeneity between the E. ictaluri isolates investigated. The status of isolates recovered from natural infections over time and from geographically distinct farms was evaluated using pulsed-field gel electrophoresis (PFGE), plasmid profile identification and antibiotic sensitivity tests. The PFGE results showed 6 main groups with a similarity of 82% and the corresponding genotypes of the prevalent isolates illustrated annual differences. Three plasmid groups were identified distributed among the isolates investigated, in which high molecular weight plasmids of approximately 35 and 140 kb were found in two of the groups. Plasmid profiles of the present study did not show any trend of geographical region or year of isolation. The 140 kb plasmid has been considered as a multi-antibiotic resistance plasmid which confers resistance to tetracycline, trimethoprim and sulphonamides. All Vietnamese isolates showed a high level of resistance to Oxolinic acid, Sulfadimethoxine/Ormetoprim (Romet), Oxytetracycline and Amoxicillin. A reproducible bacterial immersion challenge model was developed and the LD60 estimated prior to performing subsequent experimental challenge studies. Fish were exposed to 107 cfu ml-1 of E. ictaluri by immersion for up to 30 seconds, resulting in a cumulative percentage mortality of 63%. Edwardsiella ictaluri was recovered and identified from all the dead and moribund fish during these experiments and affected fish showed similar clinical signs and pathology to those reported from natural E. ictaluri infections. The present study resulted in a successful experimental immersion challenge model for E. ictaluri infection in healthy striped catfish. Cohabitation challenges were also developed and produced 15-40% mortality, typical clinical signs and pathology, and successful recovery of the challenge organism demonstrating horizontal transmission of E. ictaluri in striped catfish. Experimental studies were then conducted to investigate the association between pH or salinity of water and susceptibility to E. ictaluri infection in striped catfish. The first experiments were performed in in vitro conditions in which E. ictaluri isolates were cultured in a variety of pH and salt concentrations. In vivo experiments were then designed where striped catfish were exposed to 107 cfu ml-1 of E. ictaluri for 30 seconds and then held at 4 different water pHs (5.5, 6.5, 7.5 and 8.5) or NaCl concentrations (0, 0.5, 1 and 1.5%). The results of in vitro experiments showed that a pH value between 5.5 to 6.5 and salt concentration between 0-0.5% were optimal for the growth of E. ictaluri. The in vivo experiments demonstrated that the cumulative mortality of striped catfish in water at pH 5 and pH 6 was significantly higher than that of fish maintained in more alkaline water (p<0.05). By contrast, the cumulative mortality of the striped catfish maintained in 0.5% salt concentration was significantly lower than those kept in 0%, 1% and 1.5% salt concentration (p<0.05). Clinical signs, lesions and histopathological changes in the affected fish were consistent with those reported in natural infections. This study highlighted the use of pH 8.5 and salinity of 0.5% NaCl as a means of decreasing the susceptibility of striped catfish to E. ictaluri. In conclusion, this study used a variety of methods in order to enhance the understanding of the biochemical, biophysical characteristics, plasmid profile and antibiotic resistance as well as the relatedness of E. ictaluri isolates recovered from farmed striped catfish in Vietnam. This study provided two reliable and reproducible bacterial challenge models (immersion and cohabitation) and emphasised the link between pH and salinity with the infectivity and pathogenicity of E. ictaluri in striped catfish.

The purpose of the thesis has been to investigate whether there is a link between trade liberalism and economic growth in the Asian countries. Previous research has pointed out that correlation exists between these variables, but there have also been other researchers who criticized such a relationship. We discovered that economic growth studies had previously been conducted where countries in Asia were included. This motivated us to carry out our study as our research hopefully helps to replenish existing knowledge gap. In the study, we have used cross-sectional regression analysis for 30 Asian countries where data were collected for 1990-2000. Our dependent variable in our regression is average GDP per capita, which also defines growth. We have used two independent variables as main variables, trade volume and economic freedom index. Our analysis shows that the majority of the variables in the study have a positive significant relation to economic growth. Keywords: economic growth, trade liberalism, trade, GDP / capita, EFI, direct investment, import, export.

Inflationen har i många länder varit låg sedan finanskrisen 2008. I försök öka inflationstakten har centralbanker sänkt sina räntor till rekordlåga nivåer. I Danmark, Schweiz och Sverige har styrräntorna varit negativa. John B Taylor föreslog 1993 en makroekonomisk regel med syfte att kunna ge en prognos för styrräntan. Enligt Taylorregeln kan styrräntan förklaras av tidigare perioders inflationstakt och bruttonationalprodukt. Denna uppsats syftar till att undersöka Taylorregelns empiriska relevans i Danmark, Schweiz och Sverige under perioden 2000 till 2018. Två tester genomförs. Det första är att, med en linjär regressionsmodell, undersöka sambandet mellan styrränta, inflationsgap och BNP-gap. Det andra är ett Granger-kausalitetstest för att se om den implicerade kausaliteten i Taylorregeln stämmer. Granger-testet bygger på resultaten från en vektor autoregression. Resultaten i denna uppsats visar att det finns ett samband mellan inflationstakt och styrränta, men inte mellan BNP-gap och styrränta i de valda länderna under undersökningsperioden. Vidare visar resultaten att kausaliteten går från inflationsgap och BNP-gap mot styrränta, som Taylorregeln föreslår. Resultatet lyckas inte påvisa att negativa styrräntor skulle påverka Taylorregelns relevans. / The rate of inflation has been low in many countries since the financial crisis in 2008. In attempts to increase the inflation rate, central banks have lowered their interest rates to historically low levels. In Denmark, Switzerland and Sweden, the central banks key interest rates have been negative. In 1993, John B Taylor proposed a macroeconomic rule with the aim of providing a forecast for the key interest rate. According to the Taylor rule, the policy rate can be explained by the inflation rate and gross domestic product of previous periods. This paper aims to investigate the empirical relevance of the Taylor rule in Denmark, Switzerland and Sweden during the period 2000 to 2018. To do this, two tests are performed. The first is that, with a linear regression model, investigate the relationship between the key interest rate, the inflation gap and the GDP gap. The second is a Granger causality test to see if the implicit causality of the Taylor rule is correct. The Granger test is based on the results of a vector autoregression. The results of this paper show that there is a correlation between the rate of inflation and the key interest rate, but not between the GDP gap and the key interest rate in the selected countries during the investigation period. Furthermore, the results show that causality goes from the inflation gap and the GDP gap towards the key interest rate, as the Taylor rule suggests. The result does not suggest that negative key interest rates would affect the relevance of the Taylor rule.