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Submitted by Christopher Davies Junior (christopher.junior@volkswagen.com.br) on 2011-09-05T20:59:11Z No. of bitstreams: 1 Utilizando modelos econométricos univariados.pdf: 443280 bytes, checksum: c9deb332599852aebed4578c3453998c (MD5) / Approved for entry into archive by Gisele Isaura Hannickel (gisele.hannickel@fgv.br) on 2011-09-06T12:24:10Z (GMT) No. of bitstreams: 1 Utilizando modelos econométricos univariados.pdf: 443280 bytes, checksum: c9deb332599852aebed4578c3453998c (MD5) / Approved for entry into archive by Gisele Isaura Hannickel (gisele.hannickel@fgv.br) on 2011-09-06T12:24:21Z (GMT) No. of bitstreams: 1 Utilizando modelos econométricos univariados.pdf: 443280 bytes, checksum: c9deb332599852aebed4578c3453998c (MD5) / Made available in DSpace on 2011-09-06T12:29:13Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 Utilizando modelos econométricos univariados.pdf: 443280 bytes, checksum: c9deb332599852aebed4578c3453998c (MD5) Previous issue date: 2011-08-18 / A previsão de demanda é uma atividade relevante pois influencia na tomada de decisão das organizações públicas e privadas. Este trabalho procura identificar modelos econométricos que apresentem bom poder preditivo para a demanda automotiva brasileira num horizonte de longo prazo, cinco anos, através do uso das séries de vendas mensais de automóveis, veículos comerciais leves e total, o período amostral é de 1970 a 2010. Foram estimados e avaliados os seguintes modelos: Auto-regressivo (Box-Jenkins, 1976), Estrutural (Harvey, 1989) e Mudança de Regime (Hamilton, 1994), incluindo efeitos calendário e dummies além dos testes de raízes unitárias sazonais e não-sazonais para as séries. A definição da acurácia dos modelos baseou-se no Erro Quadrático Médio (EQM) dos resultados apresentados na simulação da previsão de demanda dos últimos quinze anos (1995 a 2010). / Demand forecasting is an important activity because it influences the decision making of public and private organizations. This study identifies econometrics models that have good predictive power for the Brazilian automotive demand in a long-term horizon, five years, through the use of series of monthly sales of automobiles, light commercial vehicles and total, the sample period is from 1970 until 2010. Were estimated and evaluated the following models: Auto-regressive (Box-Jenkins, 1976), Structural (Harvey, 1989) and Regime Change (Hamilton, 1994), including calendar effects and dummies, also seasonal and non-seasonal unit root tests for the series. The definition of the accuracy of the models was based on Mean Square Error (MSE) of the results presented in the simulation of the forecast demand over the last fifteen years (1995 till 2010).

Made available in DSpace on 2014-06-11T19:27:50Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 0 Previous issue date: 2004-06-17Bitstream added on 2014-06-13T19:56:40Z : No. of bitstreams: 1 domingos_ae_me_rcla.pdf: 1639791 bytes, checksum: a249debbb305144a8b224c16d43ca2b0 (MD5) / Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq) / O presente trabalho esclarece alguns conceitos de estratégias sustentáveis em cidades, ao mesmo tempo em que analisa como os princípios de sustentabilidade estão sendo tratados em estratégias de planejamento elaboradas e aplicadas no mundo e nas Agendas 21 Locais Brasileiras. Com o objetivo de demonstrar como estas ações estão produzindo mudanças sociais, econômicas e ambientais nas localidades onde estão sendo aplicadas, são apresentados exemplos dessas ações em alguns países e também em cidades próximas à área de estudo. Como objetivo principal, dá-se ênfase à análise dos aspectos ambientais urbanos da cidade de Santa Gertrudes - SP, e, buscando fazer um diagnóstico local, trabalham-se os resultados dos questionários aplicados junto à população urbana da cidade. Com o diagnóstico em mãos, são propostas estratégias sustentáveis para o alcance da qualidade ambiental urbana de Santa Gertrudes, enfatizando-se a necessidade de sensibilizar e capacitar a sociedade para, futuramente, elaborar a Agenda 21 Local do município. / The present work illuminates some concepts of maintainable strategies in cities, at the same time in that analyzes as the beginnings of maintainable they are being treated in elaborated planning strategies and applied in the world and in the Brazilian Calendars 21 Places. With the objective of demonstrating as these actions are producing social, economic changes and you set at the places where they are being applied, examples of those actions they are presented in some countries and also in close cities to the study area. As main objective, gives him emphasis to the analysis of the urban environmental aspects of Santa Gertrudes's city - SP, and, looking for to do a local diagnosis, they are worked the results of the applied questionnaires close to the urban population of the city. With the diagnosis in hands, maintainable strategies are proposed for the reach of Santa Gertrudes's urban environmental quality, being emphasized the need to sensitize and to qualify the society for, to elaborate the Local Calendar 21 of the municipal district.

This work is aimed at connection of somatic values and school success in girls in the first and the fourth year of primary schools. Objective of the work is description of the mode of effect of age structure and growth on school success. Further, the influence of postponed school attendance on school success. The surveying took place at fourteen basic schools in České Budějovice and its proximity in the year of 2006. The sample was made up of 220 girls in first year and 204 girls in fourth year. The opinions of teachers and parents were recorded in a case of position of 6 years old pupils and 7 years old ones in connection with school success, then information of delay of school attendance.

O objetivo desta dissertação é entender as concepções de tempo e espaço presentes nos códices mexicas produzidos no período colonial inicial, entendendo-as como parte das concepções de história desse povo. Para alcançar esse objetivo foram analisadas centralmente as representações de calendário e lugares políticos e de paisagem em cinco narrativas históricas contidas nos códices mexicas produzidos durante os séculos XVI e início do XVII: Boturini, Mendoza, Aubin, Vaticano A e Manuscrito 40, manuscritos compostos por textos pictoglíficos e alfabéticos, produzidos pelas elites mexicas e seus descendentes, a partir de demandas nativas, castelhanas e missionárias. As representações temporais e espaciais levantadas nas narrativas foram cotejadas com exemplos de origem pré-hispânica, contidos nos códices mixtecos e nos monumentos e gravados em pedra mexicas, com a finalidade de inferir possíveis relações com permanências e transformações das concepções de tempo e espaço dos mexicas durante o período colonial inicial. O entendimento desse conjunto de concepções, centrados nas representações de calendário e de lugares políticos e de paisagem contidas nas narrativas históricas mexicas, pode contribuir para compreender como as elites mexicas e seus descendentes concebiam sua própria história após a conquista castelhana. / This Master thesis aims to comprehend the conceptions of time and space in the colonial Mexica or Aztec codices, assuming them as part of the Mexicas conceptions of history. To achieve this objective, the representations of calendar signs, political and landscape places were centrally analyzed in five historical narratives from Mexica codices produced during the 16th and early 17th centuries: Boturini, Mendoza, Aubin, Vaticano A and Manuscrito 40. These manuscripts produced by the Mexicas elites and their descendants, based on native, Castilian and missionary demands were composed by pictoglyphic and alphabetical texts. The time and space representations were analyzed and compared to pre-Hispanic samples at Mixtec codices and Mexicas stone monuments, for the purpose of infer the possible relations of persistence and transformation on the Mexicas conceptions of time and space during the early colonial period. The comprehension of this set of conceptions, centrally on the representations of calendar signs, political and landscape places, may contribute to understand how the Mexicas elites and their descendants conceived their own history after the Castilian conquest.

Reihe digitaler Kalenderblätter, die historische Beiträge mit Bezug zur Region Chemnitz-Südwestsachsen veröffentlicht. / Series of digital calendar sheets to publish historical contributions related to the region of Chemnitz-South West Saxony.

Denna rapport redovisar utvecklingen av en tjänst för att lättare kunna söka praktikplats och praktikanter. Tjänsten utvecklades som ett eget projekt att senare kunna visas upp som ett förslag för intressenter av verktyg som detta. Utvecklingen har följt dagens principer för användbarhetsdesign och upplevelsedesign. Målet har under hela utvecklingsperioden varit att skapa något som speglar denna tids trender och applikationer för möten. Resultatet av detta projekt har landat i en hifi prototyp, grafisk profil samt konceptbeskrivning för hur tjänsten ska fungera och användas. Denna prototyp kommer senare att utvecklas och skapas som en webbapplikation. / This report accounts the development of a service to make it easier for students to get an internship. The web application is a self-developed project meant to be later be presented for companies interested in similar areas as this. The development follows the principles of usability and experience design. The goal during the process has the hole time been to create a something that follow this eras trends for meeting applications. The result ended in a wellstructured hifi prototype, a graphic profile guide as well as a concept for further development of the service. The prototype will in the next step be developed into a real web application.

Dans le but de l’intégration des supercondensateurs dans des applicationstransport, la connaissance et l’étude de leur comportement au cours du vieillissementest nécessaire. L’objectif de cette thèse est donc la compréhension et lamodélisation des phénomènes de vieillissement observés sur lessupercondensateurs. Pour cela, des méthodologies de caractérisation électriques etdes protocoles expérimentaux originaux combinant les différentes contraintes devieillissement ont été mis en oeuvre. Des mesures du courant de fuite et des tests devieillissement combinés ont été effectués. Les résultats obtenus sont présentés. Ilsont ainsi servis au développement et l’implémentation de modèles permettant le suivide l’évolution des performances des supercondensateurs avec le vieillissement. / The study of the behavior of supercapacitors during ageing is required in orderto integrate them in transportation applications. The aim of this thesis is tounderstand and model ageing phenomena observed on supercapacitors. For thispurpose, electrical characterization methodologies and original experimentalprotocols combining various constraints of ageing have been implemented.Measurements of leakage current and combined ageing tests were conducted. Theobtained results were used for developing models allowing the monitoring of theevolution of supercapacitors performance during ageing.

Studien undersökte om, och hur, Google Kalender kan användas som hjälpmedel för vuxna individer med ADHD. Syftet var att öppna upp för en diskussion om medieteknik som hjälpmedel vid neuropsykiatriska funktionshinder. En sammanfattning av tillgänglig litteratur och forskning presenterade bakgrundsfakta kring ADHD, operativsystemet Android och Google Kalender. Via programvarutestning, i form av fri testning, testades och analyserades tjänsten Google Kalender utifrån de svårigheter individer med ADHD upplever. Resultaten visar att Google Kalender kan underlätta planering, tidsuppfattning, ihågkommande och framförhållning. Vidare forskning inom ämnet bör bedrivas för att vetenskapligt fastställa resultaten i undersökningen.

Bakgrund: Sedan finanskrisen 2008 har den globala ekonomin präglats av sjunkande räntor och stigande börser. Detta har lett till att intresset för den nordiska aktiemarknaden har nått rekordhöga nivåer. Flera av de strategier som tillämpas vid investeringar på aktiemarknaden baseras på att marknaden historiskt har tenderat att röra sig enligt vissa mönster under specifika kalendeperioder. Andra kända investeringsstrategier baseras istället på hur aktier värderas utifrån prismultiplar, som antas vittna om bolagets förväntade tillväxt och lönsamhet. Strategierna gör det intressant att undersöka dessa två typer av strategier gemensamt för att se ifall dem skulle kunna komplettera varandra och hjälpa en investerares att överavkasta sitt jämförelseindex. Syfte: Studiens syfte är att analysera ifall kalenderanomalier fortfarande förekommer (i) på aggregerad nivå på de nordiska marknaderna samt (ii) om eventuella marknadsanomalierna skiljer sig något mellan värde- och tillväxtaktier. Studien avser således besvara frågan ifall någon aktietyp tenderar att agera annorlunda under specifika kalenderperioder och hur detta kan bidra till mer välgrundade investeringsbeslut. Metod: För att kunna undersöka studiens syfte har avkastningen hos de nordiska aktieindexen undersökts under utvalda kalenderperioder. Utifrån regressioner har dessa perioder jämförts mot övriga perioder på året för att finna eventuell abnormal avkastning. För att undersöka differenser bland olika aktietyper har egna index konstruerats utifrån aktiens genomsnittliga P/BV-multipelunder de senaste tio åren. Resultat: Under den studerade tidsperioden mellan 2009 och 2020 går det att med statistisk signifikans att konstatera kalenderanomalier på de nordiska marknaderna. Resultaten varierar för varje effekt, land och aktietyp. En investerare hade alltså under den studerade tidsperioden kunnat generera abnormal avkastning genom att ta välkända anomalier i beaktning vid sina investeringsbeslut. Mellan de olika aktietyperna konstateras skillnader, dock inget som indikeraratt den ena gruppen är mer effektiv gentemot marknaden än den andra / Background: Since the financial crisis in 2008, the global economy has been characterized by falling interest rates and rising stock markets. This has led to interest in the Nordic stock market reaching record highs. Several of the strategies applied to investments in the stock market are based on the fact that the market has historically tended to move according to certain patterns during specific calendar periods, so-called calendar anomalies. Other known investment strategiesare instead based on how shares are valued on the basis of price multiples, which are assumed to testify to the company's expected growth and profitability. The strategies make it interesting to examine these two types of strategies together to see if they could complement each other and help an investor to outperform their benchmark. Purpose: The purpose of the study is to analyze whether calendar anomalies still occur (i) at the aggregate level in the Nordic markets and (ii) whether any market anomalies differ slightly between value and growth shares. The study thus intends to answer the question of whether anytype of share tends to act differently during specific calendar periods and how this can contribute to more informed investment decisions. Method: In order to be able to investigate the purpose of the study, the returns of the Nordic equity indices have been examined during selected calendar periods. Based on regressions, these periods have been compared with other periods of the year to find any abnormal returns. To examine differences among different share types, own indices have been constructed based on the share's average P / BV multiple over the past ten years. Result: During the studied period between 2009 and 2020, it is possible to establish calendar anomalies in the Nordic markets with statistical significance. The results vary for each effect, country and share type. An investor would thus have been able to generate abnormal returns during the period studied by taking well-known anomalies into account in his investment decisions. Differences are noted between the different share types, but there is no indication that one group is more efficient towards the market than the other.