Due to climate change and natural variations in the hydrological cycle, global mean sea levels are increasing, causing the mean sea levels in different regions of the world to increase. In Sweden, coastal cities are facing rising water levels which is increasing flooding. The coastal community of Gothenburg, Sweden was identified the 18th most vulnerable city in the country both to flooding induced by water level rise and other climate change related impacts. Its location, in proximity of Lake Vänern, and in the mouth of the Göta River and its tributaries: Säveån, Mölndalsån and Lärjeån is heightening flood risk and vulnerability in the area. This thesis aims to contribute in comprehending the integration process of natural hazard and climate change adaptation for flood management in Älvstaden- central Gothenburg between 1999 and 2015. With the main objectives being” how the municipality of Gothenburg has applied the urban land use planning theory for the integration of natural hazard and climate change adaptation, with regards to adaptation for flood management in Älvstaden between 1999 and 2015? “What climate change adaptation policies for flood management have been implemented in Gothenburg within this time frame, and how the policies have been revised to match the reality of flood issues?” And “What improvements would be made in the integration process to better address adaptation for flood management?” A desk-based research and one case study approach was adopted for this study. The findings indicate that although the city has systematically used the steps involved in the integration process of natural hazard and climate change adaptation for flood management, it does not link the policies and the measures applied to adaptation for flood management. Which is an issue as it has led to the exclusion of vital functions of the integration process. Suggestions on how the integration process could be improved are provided.

Devant la question des changements climatiques, l’accent a souvent été mis sur les efforts visant à diminuer les émissions de gaz à effet de serre. Cependant, avec la découverte que certaines transformations profondes de nos environnements sont déjà irréversibles, la notion d’adaptation a gagné en intérêt depuis le tournant du 21e siècle. D’ailleurs, alors que les municipalités, en tant que gouvernement de proximité, sont de plus en plus considérés comme des acteurs importants dans cette volonté d’adaptation, le programme Climat-Municipalité a permis à quatre entités municipales québécoises de produire un plan d’adaptation aux changements climatiques (PACC) entre 2009 et 2016. La question se pose alors : comment l’adaptation aux changements climatiques est-elle interprétée dans le contexte municipal québécois ? Et de manière plus spécifique, comment l’adaptation est-elle interprétée en tant que processus et comment l’adaptation est-elle interprétée en tant qu’action ? Après tout, l’un des grands défis de l’adaptation s’exprime dans ce passage difficile entre la prise de conscience devant les enjeux climatiques et l’opérationnalisation de ce constat, que ce soit dans la mise en œuvre concrète ou, même, dans la simple compréhension sensible des problématiques auxquels la société est confrontée. Devant un phénomène globale affectant une planète où peu d’écosystèmes échappent à l’influence humaine, l’urgence climatique représente ainsi un défi technique, psychologique et sociopolitique unique. Comme notre analyse des PACC de Trois-Rivières, de Sherbrooke et de Laval l’indiquent, ces PACC représentent de remarquables premiers pas dans la bonne direction, mais ils restent insuffisants. Leur ambition, leur mécanisme et leur portée sont, pour l’instant, trop limités pour assurer la pérennité des territoires et des populations ; leur vision généralement à court terme et réactive contribue à se préparer aux défis déjà connus aujourd’hui, mais n’assure probablement pas à nos sociétés la capacité de faire face aux chocs de demain. / For a long time, when facing the daunting challenge of climate changes, the emphasis has been put on the efforts to mitigate greenhouses gases emissions. Yet, when it became clear that our ecosystems were subjects to some deep transformations that were irreversible, the notion of “adaptation” slowly gain traction at the turn of the 21st century. Thus, while the municipalities, as government of proximity, are considered as increasingly important actors in this adaptation scheme, the program Climat-Municipalité offered the opportunity to four municipal entities in Quebec to produce a Climate Change Adaptation Plan (CCAP) between 2009 and 2016. The question is then raised: how is climate change adaptation interpreted at the local level in Quebec? And, to be more specific, how is the Adaptation interpreted as a process and how is Adaptation interpreted as an action? After all, one the greatest challenge of Adaptation is that difficult transition from awareness of climate issues to the operationalization of this realization, whether through concrete implementation or even through a simply better and complex understanding of the hardships faced by our society. Indeed, this global phenomenon of climate change, that can be felt throughout this planet where few ecosystems escape human influence, is at the same time a technical, psychological and sociopolitical challenge. As our analysis of the CCAP of Trois-Rivières, Sherbrooke and Laval shows, those plans represent great “first steps” in the right direction, but they are still insufficient. Their ambition, their inner mechanics and their reach are, at least for now, too limited to guarantee the stability and sustainability of territories and populations. Their mostly short-term and reactive vision helps prepare for today’s challenges but doesn’t ensure our societies the capacity to face tomorrow’s shocks.

<p>This dissertation extends our knowledge of digital affordances in communicating complex scientific information by building and testing a climate change adaptation website for the Colombian coffee sector, <a href="http://www.climaycafe.com/">www.climaycafe.com</a>. This project offers both a practical component (scholarship of engagement) and theoretical component (extension of our understanding of the objective/subjective nature of affordances). Practically, it seeks to create a collaborative and tailored science communication solution for improved information access to support climate change adaptation. Theoretically, it extends our understanding of affordances in a digital environment through a qualitative assessment, specifically how occupational identity influences the subjective nature of affordances. Data is gathered through an iterative qualitative assessment of users’ interpretation of the perceived affordances on the website. The results demonstrate that occupational identity has an influence on perceived digital affordances, particularly influenced by (1) Perceived Social Status of Occupation, (2) Perception of Value Based on Occupational Demands, (3) Occupational Influence on Perceived Reliability and (4) Usability Preferences Based on Occupation. We additionally found that as creators we can set general goals for digital tools and achieve general success in obtaining them, but ultimately the users will dictate their needs within this broader framework. Lastly, there is a self-identified need for more practical knowledge and information access for coffee farmers in these regions of Colombia around climate change adaptation.</p>

The main objective of this thesis is to present a detailed analysis of the currently achieved level of common interconnection between adaptation measures to climate change and disaster risk reduction approach in selected documents. The analysis was based on a group of predetermined keywords. The theoretical basis for this research is the concept o environmental security. According to the selected theoretical concepts the thesis identifies current obstacles of the synergy of both types of measures, and offers suggestions and solutions to overcome them. Results of the analysis showed an insufficient level of interconnection between measures, especially in the internationally binding agreements. They define only the widest context of their implementation and, moreover, do not work with the aspect of building and sustaining environmental security at all. Nationally binding documents on the contrary show a detailed mutual interconnection of the both types of measures. They are sector-oriented and complement each other in the terms of more effective implementation of measures. They are as well the only documents referring directly to the need of building environmental security, as one of the basic preconditions for maintaining the overall security of natural and socioeconomic systems. Key words:...

Conventional agriculture has impacts on the environment such as soil degradation, biodiversity loss and pollution of ecosystems, which could be enhanced further by climate change. The effects can be more or less extensive depending on whether adaptation is carried out. Agriculture in Sweden is controlled by EU- and national regulations that set the rules and possibilities for adaptation through financial and advisory support. This study aimed to examine what impacts climate change will impose on the agriculture in Sweden, as well as how the theoretical and practical side of the adaptation measures available through policy regulations, is perceived on farm level. The question of research was: ‘How sufficient are the agricultural policy regulations in enabling Swedish farmers to adapt to climate change?’, which was investigated by interviewing Swedish farmers. The results were analyzed through the theoretical framework adaptive capacity, as a criterion for successfully enabling climate change adaptation. The results showed that several barriers exist within the regulations which can obstruct adaptation due to bureaucratic complexity and a gap between theory and practice in regard to the effectiveness of measures. The results also showed that economic, human and social capital included in the adaptation capacity concept can be strengthened for better adaptation. The discussion presented several points of improvement for regulations to adopt a practical farm-perspective in order to enable farmers to adapt to climate change. / Konventionellt jordbruk har negativa effekter på miljön, såsom markförstöring, förlust av biologisk mångfald och förorening av omgivande ekosystem, vilket kan förvärras av klimatförändringar. Effekterna kan bli mer eller mindre omfattande beroende på om anpassning genomförs. Jordbruket i Sverige styrs av Europeiska- och nationella lagar som anger regler och möjligheter för anpassning genom ekonomiska och rådgivande stöd. Studien syftade till att undersöka vilka konsekvenser klimatförändringarna kan innebära för jordbruket i Sverige, samt hur den teoretiska och praktiska sidan av anpassningsåtgärder tillgängliga genom regelverket, uppfattas på gårdsnivå. Frågeställningen för undersökningen var således: ‘Hur tillräckliga är existerande regelverk i att möjliggöra svenska jordbrukares anpassning till klimatförändringar?’. Forskningsfrågan undersöktes genom en intervjustudie med svenska lantbrukare. Resultatet analyserades genom det teoretiska ramverket Anpassnings-kapacitet som är ett kriterium för att möjliggöra klimatanpassning. Resultatet visade att det existerar hinder inom regelverket som begränsar anpassning på grund av byråkratisk komplexitet samt en klyfta mellan teori och praktik gällande utvecklingen och effekten av åtgärder, vilket gav slutsatsen att regelverkets ansträngningar i att möjliggöra anpassning är överlag otillräckliga. Resultatet visade att ekonomiskt, human- och socialt kapital som ingår i konceptet Anpassnings-kapacitet kan stärkas för att bättre anpassning ska ske. Diskussionen presenterar flera förbättringar för att regelverket ska kunna anta ett gårds-perspektiv för att göra det möjligt för lantbrukare att anpassa sig till klimatförändringarna.

The increasing demand for food and fiber, the need for climate change mitigation and adaptation as well as for environmental protection impose severe challenges on land systems worldwide. Solutions to support the transformation towards a sustainable development of land systems are needed. One response to the multiple challenges is the introduction of policy options aimed at steering land use activities towards a bundle of societal goals. However, it is difficult to empirically foresee the effectiveness and unintended consequences of policy options prior to their deployment. A second response is environmental education because human consumption behavior, among other factors, strongly influences natural ecosystems. However, it is a non-trivial task to develop effective communication strategies for complex topics such as sustainable land management. In both cases, modeling can help to overcome the different obstacles along the way. In this thesis, dynamic process-based social-ecological models at the individual scale are developed and analyzed to study effectiveness and unintended side effects of policy options, which promote agricultural management strategies and were intentionally designed to cope with multiple societal challenges. Two case studies of political intervention are investigated: the promotion of perennial woody crops in European agricultural landscapes for a sustainable bioeconomy and governmental supplementary feeding programs to cope with climate risks in pastoral systems in drylands. These two case studies are complemented by the development of a serious online game on sustainable land management in general that bridges the gap between land use modeling and environmental education. Simulation results of this thesis provide insights into (i) the performance of the politically promoted agricultural management strategies in meeting various intended goals such as poverty alleviation or the maintenance of biodiversity and ecosystem services, (ii) the emergence of unintended (environmental and social) side effects such as land use conflicts, land degradation or cost explosion and (iii) the mitigation of such side effects by appropriately adjusting the design of the policy options. These insights are enabled by representing temporal as well as spatial variability in the developed models. Furthermore, different mechanistic approaches of transferability analyses based on stylized landscapes are developed and applied. They enable to check whether and in what respect policy impacts actually differ substantially between regional contexts, to identify what regional factors steer the impact and to derive indicators for grouping regions of similar policy impacts. Finally, based on a conducted survey-based evaluation and experiences from various applications, the value of the developed serious game for environmental education is revealed and discussed.Altogether, this thesis contributes to model-based decision support for steering transformation towards the sustainable development of land systems in an appropriate way. This is done by developing appropriate social-ecological modeling approaches, by performing specific policy impact analyses in two transformative agricultural systems using these models and by providing a model-based communication tool for environmental education.

Havsnivåhöjning och kraftigare stormar är två konsekvenser av klimatförändringarna som i sin tur leder till ökad erosion och översvämning. När kustområdena omvandlas, och i värsta fall försvinner, påverkas människors möjligheter att bo och leva där. För att minska risken att sociala, ekonomiska och ekologiska värden går förlorade krävs att vi planerar skyddsåtgärder för havsnivåhöjning, erosion och översvämning samt planerar för hur vi kan anpassa oss efter dessa föränderliga förutsättningar.  Syftet med denna studie är att undersöka hur svenska kommuner planerar för klimatanpassning idag och hur planerad reträtt skulle kunna användas som strategi i Sverige. Flexmark, en idé som tagits fram i ett projekt lett av SGI, inkluderades i studien för att ta reda på om den kan underlätta planeringen för klimatanpassning i Sverige. För att genomföra undersökningen valdes de skånska kommunerna Ystad, Trelleborg och Lomma ut samt Länsstyrelsen Skåne och Region Skåne för djupare studie. I studien undersöktes plandokument rörande klimatanpassning framtagna av kommunerna, regionen och länsstyrelsen. En intervjustudie med informanter från samtliga organisationer kompletterade studien. Resultatet visade att de valda kommunerna jobbar med klimatanpassning men än så länge inte med planerad reträtt. Osäkerhet kring vad som är möjligt enligt PBL, motstånd hos kommuninvånare samt frågan om vem som skulle ansvara för och finansiera reträtten angavs som några av de aspekter som gör strategin svår att införa.  Naturbaserade lösningar och vallar är klimatanpassningsåtgärder som används inom kommunerna idag. Majoriteten av de intervjuade anser att planerad reträtt kommer behövas i svensk planering i framtiden men att det idag inte finns möjlighet eller vilja att utföra en sådan åtgärd. För att ge inspiration till hur reträtt kan planeras och hanteras presenteras tre internationella exempel som en referensram för vad som varit framgångsfaktorer för lyckade reträtter i andra länder. De internationella fallen tillsammans med intervjuerna och dokumentstudien analyseras för att undersöka hur planerad reträtt skulle kunna användas som strategi i Sverige. Idéen om flexmark fick ett generellt positivt mottagande bland informanterna i intervjustudien och skulle med fördel kunna användas som verktyg inom strategin planerad reträtt.  Tillvägagångssätt för planerad reträtt i en svensk kontext analyserades utifrån styrningsmodellerna hierarkisk styrning, samarbetsstyrning samt självstyrning som presenterar olika alternativ för initiativ, styrning och finansiering av planerad reträtt. Samarbetsstyrd planerad reträtt, med initiativtagande och styrning på lokal nivå samt rätt till ekonomisk stöttning från nationell nivå, är enligt forskarna i den här studien, den strategi som lämpar sig bäst inom svensk planering. För att planerad reträtt ska få ett lyckat resultat krävs att berörda parter involveras tidigt och att kontinuerlig dialog förs mellan dem under processen. / Sea level rise and increased intensity of storms are two consequences of climate change which in turn lead to increased erosion and flooding. When coastal areas are transformed, and in the worst case disappear, many people's everyday life will be affected. To reduce the risk of social, economic and ecological values ​​being lost, we need to plan for protection against sea level rise, erosion and flooding and plan for how we can adapt to these changing conditions. The purpose of this study is to investigate how Swedish municipalities plan for climate change adaptation today and how planned retreats could be used as a strategy in Sweden. Flexmark, an idea developed in a project led by SGI, was included in the study to find out if it can facilitate planning for climate change adaptation in Sweden. To carry out the investigation, Skånes’s municipalities Ystad, Trelleborg and Lomma were selected, as well as the County Administrative Board of Skåne and Region Skåne for deeper study. The study examined planning documents concerning climate change adaptation produced by the municipalities, the region and the county administrative board. An interview study with informants from all organizations supplemented the study. The results showed that the selected municipalities are working with climate change adaptation but so far not with planned retreats. Uncertainties regarding what is possible according to the Planning and Building Act, opposition from municipal residents and the matter of who would be responsible for and finance the retreat were stated as some of the aspects that make the strategy difficult to implement. Nature-based solutions and dikes are climate change adaptation measures used in municipalities today. The majority of the interviewees believe that planned retreats will be needed in Swedish planning in the future, but today there is no opportunity or willingness to carry out such a measure. To provide inspiration for how retreats can be planned and managed, three international examples are presented as a reference framework for what have been key factors for successful retreats in other countries. The international cases together with the interviews and the document study are analyzed to investigate how planned retreats could be used as a strategy in Sweden. The responses to ​​flexmark were generally positive among the informants and the idea could be used as a tool within the strategy planned retreat. Approaches of planned retreat in a Swedish context were analyzed based on the governance modes hierarchical governance, co-governance and self-governance, which present various alternatives for initiative, governance and financing of planned retreats. Cooperative planned retreat, initiated and governed at local level with financial support from national level, is according to the researchers of this study, the strategy that is best suited in Swedish planning. In order for a planned retreat to generate a successful result, it is necessary that all affected parties are involved early and that a continuous dialogue is conducted between them during the process.

In this study, we examined the extent to which global warming management is currently integrated into the European Water Framework Directive (WFD), the central legal framework for water management in the EU. We focused on the Elbe River Basin District and how global warming is addressed in its water management. We used the social–ecological systems (SES) approach as our theoretical framework, representing an eminent analytical frame of biosphere-based sustainability science. In our study, we analysed core characteristics of SES in the context of global warming to evaluate the effectiveness of current water management in the Elbe River basin concerning long-term changing climate conditions. To determine to what extent each SES feature is considered in the Elbe water management, we applied a scale of 1 to 5. Our results show that the SES feature “scale and openness” is best addressed (score 4.0) by the Elbe River basin management, followed by “context dependency” (score 3.9); however, “non-linearity, uncertainty, unpredictability” (score 3.2), “self-organisation and adaptability” (score 3.1), and “dynamics” (score 3.0) have only moderate impacts. SES features can only be considered comprehensively if global warming is accounted for in an integrated way at a European level. In order to ensure effective implementation, explicit regulations and legally binding obligations are most likely required.

Europa erlebte in den letzten 20 Jahren einige sehr heiße und trockene Sommer mit regionalen Rekordwerten heißer Temperaturen oder geringer Niederschlagssummen. In anderen Jahren führten Starkregen zu Überflutungen unterschiedlichen räumlichen Ausmaßes. Da solche Extremereignisse mit vielfältigen negativen Auswirkungen auf die menschliche Gesellschaft, natürliche Ökosysteme und verschiedene Wirtschaftssektoren verbunden sind, ist die langzeitliche Veränderung in ihrem Auftreten im Rahmen der globalen Erwärmung von großer Bedeutung. Konzepte: Maßgeblich für die Qualität von Klimawandel(folgen)studien ist die Verfügbarkeit und Qualität von Daten. Daher werden Konzepte für die Sicherstellung einer zuverlässigen und vergleichbaren Datenbasis entwickelt. Für die Beschreibung der Eigenschaften eines bestimmten Ereignisses existiert eine Vielzahl an Definitionen und Indizes, was zu unterschiedlichen Ergebnissen von Studien führen kann, welche die zeitlichen Veränderungen der Charakteristik solcher Ereignisse analysieren. Die Integration einer Reihe von Indizes in einen aggregierten Index ermöglicht eine robustere Bewertung der Klimabedingungen und Trends. Die Vergleichbarkeit von Klimafolgenbewertungen verlangt zudem die Verwendung eines gemeinsamen Analyserahmens sowie abgestimmter Datensätze (Beobachtungsdaten, Klimaprojektionen) und Methoden (z.B. Untersuchungszeiträume, Ensemble-Ansatz, Qualitätsbewertung, Korrekturalgorithmen, Impactmodelle und -indizes, Elemente der Klimafolgen- oder Risikoanalyse). Trends: Sommerliche Trockenheit hat über weiten Teilen Europas – mit Ausnahme des Nordens – zugenommen. Besonders stark zugenommen haben die Dürrebedingungen im Sommerhalbjahr für Indizes, welche die Evapotranspiration einbinden. Der reine Fokus auf den Niederschlag zur Bewertung von Dürre in verschiedenen Speichern des Wasserkreislaufs ist unzureichend. Neben dieser beobachteten Zunahme in der Sommertrockenheit, ist auch für die Intensität von Starkniederschlagsereignissen und ihrem Anteil am Gesamtniederschlag ein Anstieg über Europa zu beobachten. Verschiedene Stationen in Mitteleuropa zeigen für das Sommerhalbjahr gleichzeitige Anstiege in den Dürrebedingungen und Starkniederschlägen, was die mit solchen Niederschlagsextremen verbundenen Folgen und Risiken erhöht. Folgen: Viele Sektoren sind durch die Folgen des Klimawandels und extreme Wettereignisse negativ betroffen, so auch das Verkehrssystem. Dessen Verfügbarkeit und Leistungsfähigkeit ist von hoher Bedeutung für die Gesellschaft (Mobilität) und Wirtschaft (Waren, Transportketten). Extreme Wettereignisse wie Hitzewellen, Überschwemmungen, Dürren, Stürme und Sturmfluten können Unfälle und Staus verursachen, die Infrastrukturen beschädigen und damit Transportketten unterbrechen sowie zu Verspätungen und Ausfällen führen. Die Verkehrsträger sind dabei in unterschiedlicher Weise und Intensität betroffen. Um die Klimawandelfolgen für das Bundesverkehrssystem zu bewerten und Anpassungsbedarfe zu priorisieren wurde ein methodischer Rahmen für die Durchführung von Klimawirkungsanalysen entwickelt. Ergänzt werden diese nationalen Analysen durch Klimafolgenstudien für die UNECE-Region (UNECE: Wirtschaftskommission für Europa der Vereinten Nationen). Zielgerichtete Klimadienstleistungen, welche die Bedarfe der Anwendenden integrieren, sind eine Grundvoraussetzung für die Entwicklung praktikabler Anpassungsoptionen.:Abstract 1 Zusammenfassung 2 1. Research topic and questions addressed 3 2. Outline and structure of this thesis 6 3. Concepts – How to evaluate changes in heat, drought and wetness? 11 3.1 How to define drought? 11 3.2 How to measure changes in (extreme) temperature and precipitation? 11 3.2.1 Applying established climate indices 11 3.2.2 Developing new indices to measure drought and wetness 12 3.2.3 Assessing extreme events and their impacts 14 3.3 How to ensure good quality climate data sets? 15 3.3.1 Separating climate variability from changes in non-climatic parameters 15 3.3.2 Regionalizing climate information 15 3.3.3 Adjusting biases in climate projections 16 3.4 How to ensure comparable results of climate impact assessments? 17 3.4.1 Agreeing on common assumptions and scenarios 17 3.4.2 Applying an ensemble analysis approach 17 3.4.3 Implementing a common analysis framework for impact assessment 18 4. Changes – Which variations are seen in the regional climate? 20 4.1 Variations and changes in the average climate – temperature and precipitation 20 4.1.1 Changes in wet and dry periods over Europe 20 4.1.2 Observed and projected temperature and precipitation trends over Germany 21 4.1.3 Observed climatic changes in North-eastern Brazil (NEB) 21 4.1.4 Observed precipitation variations in the Palestinian territories and surrounding areas 22 4.2 Extreme weather and climate events: spatio-temporal variations and trends 22 4.2.1 Increases in temperature extremes and heatwaves 22 4.2.2 Characteristics of and changes in heavy precipitation 23 4.2.3 Temporal variations in meteorological drought conditions 26 4.2.4 Drought and heavy precipitation 28 4.3 Characterising selected record hot and dry summers 30 4.3.1 The five record drought summers in Europe – 1947, 2018, 2003, 1921 and 1911 30 4.3.2 The summer of 2018 31 4.3.3 The summer of 2015 32 4.3.4 Recent hot and dry summers in Germany in comparison to climate projections 33 5. Consequences – Which climate impacts do we have to expect and how to adapt to them? The case of the transport system 35 5.1 Relevance of climate change considerations for the transport system 35 5.2 Networks supporting the development of climate resilient transport systems 35 5.2.1 BMDV Network of Experts on Climate Change Impacts and Adaptation 36 5.2.2 DAS core service “climate and water” 37 5.2.3 UNECE Group of Experts on Assessment of Climate Change Impacts and Adaptation for Inland Transport 38 5.3 Climate change impact analysis for the transportation sector 39 5.3.1 Methodology of the integrated climate impact assessment 39 5.3.2 Exemplary results of the exposure analysis 40 5.3.3 Integrated climate impact assessment 40 5.4 Stress testing the transport system 41 5.4.1 The stress test methodology 41 5.4.2 Exemplary results of the traffic simulations 41 5.5 Developing an adaptation framework and specific measures 42 5.5.1 Background and classification of adaptation measures 42 5.5.2 Information and consultation services 42 5.5.3 Reviewing and revising technical guidelines and standards 43 5.5.4 Structural adaptation measures 43 5.5.5 Adapting management practices of transportation infrastructure 43 5.5.6 Adapting the operative management of traffic flows 44 5.5.7 Survey results on suitable adaptation measures 44 6. Conclusions 45 6.1 Concepts 45 6.2 Changes 45 6.3 Consequences 46 7. References 48 / Over the last 20 years, some very hot and dry summers affected Europe, regionally resulting in record breaking high temperature or low precipitation values. In other years, torrential rains led to flood events at different spatial scales. Long-term changes of such extreme events within a warming world are of great relevance, as they are connected with manifold negative impacts on human society, natural ecosystems and diverse economic sectors. Concepts: The quality of climate change (impact) studies is often hampered by availability and quality of datasets. Thus, concepts for securing reliable and comparable data are developed and applied. For the description of the characteristics of a specific event a vast number of definitions and indices exists. Therefore, results on the temporal changes of event characteristics may differ between studies. By integrating a number of indices into an aggregated index, a more robust evaluation of the climate conditions and trends is facilitated. Furthermore, comparable climate impact assessments demand a common analysis framework with agreements on the data bases (observational data and climate projections) and methodologies (e.g., study periods, ensemble approach, quality assessment, correction algorithms, climate impact models and indices, elements considered in the impact or risk analysis). Changes: Summer drought conditions increased over most of Europe, except for some stations in northern Europe. Thereby, the observed increase in drought conditions during the warm part of the year is particularly pronounced for indices integrating evapotranspiration in their definition. Purely focussing on precipitation to evaluate drought conditions in the different water reservoirs does not suffice any longer. While observing increases in summer drought, the intensity of heavy precipitation events as well as their contribution to total precipitation show a positive trend over Europe, too. Several stations in Central Europe show increasing drought conditions and increasing heavy precipitation events during the summer half year at the same time, which increases the risks connected with precipitation extremes. Consequences: Climate change impacts on the transport system are studied exemplarily for the many sectors that are affected negatively by the projected changes in climate and extreme weather events. The availability and performance of the transport system are of high importance for the society (mobility) and economy (goods, transport chains). Extreme weather events such as heatwaves, flooding, droughts, and storm surges might 1) cause accidents and congestion, 2) severely damage to infrastructures and disrupt transport chains, and 3) result in delays and cancellations. Different modes of transport are affected by climate change in different ways and with different intensity. A climate impact assessment framework was defined and tested for the German Federal transport system to support the prioritization of adaptation options. Climate change impact studies for the UNECE-region (United Nations Economic Commission for Europe) complement these Federal analyses. It is shown that tar-geted climate services that integrate user requirements are key in developing feasible adaptation options.:Abstract 1 Zusammenfassung 2 1. Research topic and questions addressed 3 2. Outline and structure of this thesis 6 3. Concepts – How to evaluate changes in heat, drought and wetness? 11 3.1 How to define drought? 11 3.2 How to measure changes in (extreme) temperature and precipitation? 11 3.2.1 Applying established climate indices 11 3.2.2 Developing new indices to measure drought and wetness 12 3.2.3 Assessing extreme events and their impacts 14 3.3 How to ensure good quality climate data sets? 15 3.3.1 Separating climate variability from changes in non-climatic parameters 15 3.3.2 Regionalizing climate information 15 3.3.3 Adjusting biases in climate projections 16 3.4 How to ensure comparable results of climate impact assessments? 17 3.4.1 Agreeing on common assumptions and scenarios 17 3.4.2 Applying an ensemble analysis approach 17 3.4.3 Implementing a common analysis framework for impact assessment 18 4. Changes – Which variations are seen in the regional climate? 20 4.1 Variations and changes in the average climate – temperature and precipitation 20 4.1.1 Changes in wet and dry periods over Europe 20 4.1.2 Observed and projected temperature and precipitation trends over Germany 21 4.1.3 Observed climatic changes in North-eastern Brazil (NEB) 21 4.1.4 Observed precipitation variations in the Palestinian territories and surrounding areas 22 4.2 Extreme weather and climate events: spatio-temporal variations and trends 22 4.2.1 Increases in temperature extremes and heatwaves 22 4.2.2 Characteristics of and changes in heavy precipitation 23 4.2.3 Temporal variations in meteorological drought conditions 26 4.2.4 Drought and heavy precipitation 28 4.3 Characterising selected record hot and dry summers 30 4.3.1 The five record drought summers in Europe – 1947, 2018, 2003, 1921 and 1911 30 4.3.2 The summer of 2018 31 4.3.3 The summer of 2015 32 4.3.4 Recent hot and dry summers in Germany in comparison to climate projections 33 5. Consequences – Which climate impacts do we have to expect and how to adapt to them? The case of the transport system 35 5.1 Relevance of climate change considerations for the transport system 35 5.2 Networks supporting the development of climate resilient transport systems 35 5.2.1 BMDV Network of Experts on Climate Change Impacts and Adaptation 36 5.2.2 DAS core service “climate and water” 37 5.2.3 UNECE Group of Experts on Assessment of Climate Change Impacts and Adaptation for Inland Transport 38 5.3 Climate change impact analysis for the transportation sector 39 5.3.1 Methodology of the integrated climate impact assessment 39 5.3.2 Exemplary results of the exposure analysis 40 5.3.3 Integrated climate impact assessment 40 5.4 Stress testing the transport system 41 5.4.1 The stress test methodology 41 5.4.2 Exemplary results of the traffic simulations 41 5.5 Developing an adaptation framework and specific measures 42 5.5.1 Background and classification of adaptation measures 42 5.5.2 Information and consultation services 42 5.5.3 Reviewing and revising technical guidelines and standards 43 5.5.4 Structural adaptation measures 43 5.5.5 Adapting management practices of transportation infrastructure 43 5.5.6 Adapting the operative management of traffic flows 44 5.5.7 Survey results on suitable adaptation measures 44 6. Conclusions 45 6.1 Concepts 45 6.2 Changes 45 6.3 Consequences 46 7. References 48

The interest towards climate change adaptation has gradually increased from local tointernational levels around the globe. This is one reason that there is less than the dueattention paid previously, on its implementation, besides relatively lower levels offunding available for the adaptation related activities. To elaborate on the trickyrelationship between adaptation funding and policy priorities in the global South, thisthesis focuses on the case of Pakistan. Pakistan is one of the most climate changesprone countries with several events of climate change related disasters taking place onan annual basis. However, there is an extremely weak mechanism of climate changeadaptation that could help the vulnerable communities to resist the disaster impacts.The respective study findings suggest that the primary cause of this issue is the lack ofan effective climate change policy. The existing National Climate Change Policy ofPakistan (NCCP), is not a living document at this point, that can address the climatechange adaptation issues. The existing policy was not only drafted by the fundingagencies themselves, who enabled the formulation of the policy, but it was alsoproposed before the 18th constitutional amendment in the country, which producedsignificant changes. Since the 18th amendment (2010), the implementation of theadaptation policy has been affected due to the change in administrative power andauthority levels, from national to provincial. Another important aspect which isassociated with the adaptation of climate change is the politics behind the funding thatmay enter the country from international sources. The national policy does not provideany comprehensive guideline for the funding agencies regarding the adaptationpriorities, vulnerability and adaptive capacity of the locals, or the organization of funds atvarious scales. This leads the international funding agencies to lose their trust in thegovernment; and lead these agencies to set up their own channels for enabling thefunds to implement the projects on climate change adaptation or mitigation. Similarly,the lack of interest for the national government towards adaptation activities furtherdeviates the flow of funds into adaptation actions, and the focus remains overmitigation. This master’s thesis adopted the in-depth case study research strategy, andsemi structured interviews were conducted with 23 climate change experts, including2but not limited to policy makers and international organizations staff. The results of thestudy were organized in four major focused areas including, a) priorities in adaptation,b) actors of adaptation, c) question of scales, and d) vulnerability and adaptive capacityof the affected communities. This study concludes that climate change adaptation is aneglected topic in Pakistan, and the mishandling of adaptation funds, under the weakpolicy guidelines, end up in maladaptation.