This bachelor thesis within the field of mathematical statistics aims to study the possibility of predicting specifically large claims from non-life insurance policies with commercial policyholders. This is done through regression analysis, where we seek to develop and evaluate a generalized linear model, GLM. The project is carried out in collaboration with the insurance company If P&C Insurance and most of the research is conducted at their headquarters in Stockholm. The explanatory variables of interest are characteristics associated with the policyholders. Due to the scarcity of large claims in the data set, the prediction is done in two steps. Firstly, logistic regression is used to model the probability of a large claim occurring. Secondly, the magnitude of the large claims is modelled using a generalized linear model with a gamma distribution. Two full models with all characteristics included are constructed and then reduced with computer intensive algorithms. This results in two reduced models, one with two characteristics excluded and one with one characteristic excluded. / Det här kandidatexamensarbetet inom matematisk statistik avser att studera möjligheten att predicera särskilt stora skador från sakförsäkringspolicys med företag som försäkringstagare. Detta görs med regressionsanalys, där vi ämnar att utveckla och bedöma en generaliserad linjär modell, GLM. Projektet utförs i samarbete med försäkringsbolaget If Skadeförsäkring och merparten av undersökningen sker på deras huvudkontor i Stockholm. Förklaringsvariablerna som är av intresse att undersöka är egenskaper associerade med försäkringstagarna. På grund av sällsynthet av storskador i datamängden görs prediktionen i två steg. Först används logistisk regression för att modellera sannolikheten för en storskada att inträffa. Sedan modelleras storskadornas omfattning genom en generaliserad linjär modell med en gammafördelning. Två grundmodeller med alla förklaringsvariabler konstrueras för att sedan reduceras med datorintensiva algoritmer. Det resulterar i två reducerade modeller, med två respektive en kundegenskap utesluten.

Summaries in English and Afrikaans / Wanvoorstelling van wesenlike feite deur omiss/o aan 'n versekeraar kan tot gevolg he dat die versekeringskontrak ongeldig verklaar word ingevolge die gemene reg. In Mutual and Federal Insurance Co Ltd v Oudtshoorn Municipality 1985 (1) SA 419 (A) is beslis dat wesenlikheid bepaal moet word vanuit die oogpunt van die redelike man. In 'n paging om bewys van die wesenlikheid van feite te vermy, het versekeraars vereis dat aansoekers die voorstellings in die kontrak moat waarborg. Dit het tot gevolg gehad dat voorstellings wat in die kontrak gewaarborg is outomaties wesenlik was. Sedert die invoering van artikel 63(3) van die Versekeringswet 27 van 1943 deur die wetgewer gedurende 1969, is die wesenlikheid van voorstellings egter 'n vereiste, selfs waar dit in die kontrak gewaarborg is. Versekeraars sou dus in die toekoms nie agter kontraktuele wanvoorstellings kon skuil nie. Hierdie maatreel het meer beskerming aan die versekerde gebied. In Qilingele v South African Mutual Life Assurance Society 1993 (1) SA 69 (A) is die toets vir wesenlikheid, soos vereis deur artikel 63{3), aangespreek. Dit het die vraag laat ontstaan of daar twee aparte toetse vir wesenlikheid bestaan, naamlik gemeenregtelik en statuter, en of daar een algemene toets bestaan. / Misrepresentation by omissio of material facts to an insurer may lead to an insurance contract being declared invalid in terms of the common law. In Mutual and Federal Insurance v Oudtshoorn Municipality 1985 (1) SA 419 (A) it was decided to determine materiality in the eyes of the reasonable man. To avoid proving materiality of facts, the insurers required proposers to warrant the representations in the contract. This resulted in the facts automatically being material. In 1969 parliament, .however, enacted section 63(3) of the Insurance Act 27 of 1943 whereby materiality of presentations, even where it was warranted in the contract, became a requirement. Therefore insurers could in future not hide behind contractual misrepresentations. This provided more protection to the insured. Qilingele v SA Mutual Life Assurance Society 1993 (1) SA 69 (A) addresses the test for materiality as required by section 63(3). This resulted in the question whether two separate tests for materiality in terms of common law and statute, or only one exists. / Criminal and Procedural Law / LL.M.

孤兒保單不僅普遍存在於壽險公司，同時它對壽險公司造成的負面影響也相當大，包括：增加保單的脫退率、減弱壽險公司與保戶的關係、迫使孤兒保戶投向競爭者….等等，可見得壽險公司對於孤兒保單的議題不得不去重視並應有效的加以管理。 本研究探討台灣壽險業保險孤兒服務稀少的缺失、服務修復策略與顧客行為反應之關係，以試圖找出最有效的保險孤兒服務修復策略，並根據研究結果,提供給壽險業管理者採取適當的服務修復策略。研究方法共分兩階段：深入訪談及問卷調查。第一階段首先是進行深入訪談，主要是為了對研究主題作一探索性的研究，並將訪談結果作為問卷發展及設計的依據，第二階段問卷調查則為本研究之重點，問卷調查方式採立意抽樣，發出問卷418份，回收問卷289份，回收率為69﹪，最後共蒐集到230份由合格受訪者所填寫的問卷，其中有效問卷為225份，無效問卷有5份。 本研究之限制主要有兩點：採非隨機抽樣及問卷調查所蒐集到的樣本單位數不多。研究結果之發現說明如下。 一、 保險孤兒經驗 14.3％的受訪者其保險孤兒之狀態已獲得解決,僅4.2％的受訪者其孤兒經驗低於1年,顯示壽險公司並沒有將消除保險孤兒視為急迫性的服務缺失。服務稀少及服務接觸品質不佳的情況的確占大多數（占84.2％），並且專屬業務員的失職的確已影響到受訪孤兒的服務。 二、缺失歸因及缺失嚴重性受訪孤兒普遍將缺失歸因於業務員（占67.7％）。受訪者中認為服務稀少的缺失之嚴重性程度嚴重者占大多數（占43.0％），「新業務員不聞不問的孤兒」有高達63.4％認為這種缺失是嚴重的。 三、保險的重要性及保險知識 受訪者普遍認為保險產品是重要的。對保險商品的了解則顯示為中等（絕大多數表示普通49.3%），僅有不到五分之一的受訪孤兒對抱怨反應管道表示了解及非常了解 。 四、保險孤兒的行為反應 六成以上的受訪孤兒對壽險公司及業務員的服務修復作法感到不滿意；64.0％的受訪者呈現負面口碑，僅12.9％的受訪者呈現正面口碑；69.8％的受訪者沒有再購意願，僅16.4％的受訪者有可能再光顧。 五、孤兒保戶期望的服務修復孤兒保戶最高期望的3項服務修復作法依序分別是：「業務員將保單權利義務向我說明清楚」、「我要解約時，提供對我有利的其他選擇（如換約、展期保險…）」及「我可自由更換適合我的服務員（如熟識、業務員人格特質等考量）」。最低期望的2項依序分別是：「別家壽險公司的業務員耐心傾聽或表示關切」、「別家壽險公司的業務員樂於出面幫忙」。文獻推論而得的服務修復策略與因素命名的結果僅「即時性更正」及「更正服務」相似，其餘的服務修復策略於文獻推論而來的較以「行動」為主要區別，而因素命名普遍是與修復「服務提供對象」有關。 六、假設驗證結果之發現 （一）一旦有服務需求發生時，保戶看待服務缺失的嚴重性拉高。 （二）影響期望的服務修復的因素 缺失嚴重性越高，保戶期望的服務修復程度及項目數越高及越多；保戶認知保險的重要性程度越高，保戶期望的服務修復程度及項目數越高及越多。 （三）影響服務修復滿意度的因素 期望的與實際的服務修復之差距顯著影響服務修復滿意度；並且此差距越大服務修復滿意度越低。另外期望的與實際的服務修復之差距較缺失嚴重性的認知對服務修復滿意度的影響大；同時期望的與實際的服務修復之差距也較缺失歸因之差異對服務修復滿意度的影響大。 （四）影響保戶口碑行為的因素 服務修復滿意度顯著影響保戶口碑行為；並且服務修復滿意度越低保戶口碑行為越負面。另外服務修復滿意度較缺失歸因之差異對保戶口碑行為的影響大。 （五）影響保戶再購意圖的因素 服務修復滿意度顯著影響保戶再購意圖；並且服務滿意度越低保戶再購意圖越負面。另外服務修復滿意度較缺失歸因之差異對保戶再購意圖的影響大。 七、有效的服務修復策略 「更正服務」因素及「業務員良好的報怨處理技巧」因素皆對「服務修復滿意度」產生顯著的影響，並且「更正服務」因素較「業務員良好的報怨處理技巧」因素對「服務修復滿意度」的影響更大。因此，對於壽險公司而言，致力於更正服務的缺失及提升業務員良好的報怨處理技巧可以大大的提高保戶「服務修復滿意度」，故「更正服務」因素及「業務員良好的報怨處理技巧」因素是最有效的保險孤兒服務修復策略，尤其是「更正服務」因素。 / Life insurers need to be concerned about issues related to orphan policyholders in order to manage them well. Evidence shows that there is a widespread orphan policyholder’s in life insurance industry. They also have many negative influences on insurers, such as increasing their rate of lapse, weakening the insurer/orphan relationships, etc. This study proposes suitable service recovery strategies for orphans to managers. It examines relationships among service failures towards orphans, service recovery strategies and customers’ behaviors in Taiwan’s life insurance market. Customers’ behaviors include secondary satisfaction, word-of-mouth (W-O-M) and repurchase intentions. The research methods include in-depth interviews and surveys. The first step is an exploratory study of the theme of orphan policies by conducting in-depth interviews with both managers and orphans. The results of the in-depth interviews consider the sources for developing and designing a survey. The survey is the second step, and is the focus of this research. There were 418 questionnaires sent out and responses for received from 289 of these. Of these 289 questionnaires, 230 were completed by eligible respondents, and 225 of the 230 questionnaires were valid. The limits of this study are non-random samplings with insufficient sample sizes. The findings show below: 1. Orphans’ experiences There are 14.3﹪respondents that claim they are no longer orphans. Only 4.2% of the respondents declare that they have been orphans for less than a year. This reveals that insurers do not regard policyholders becoming orphans to be an urgent service failure. The majority of respondents rarely received services from their agents and if so, the services were of poor quality. 2. Failure attribution and severity The majority of respondents hold the agents’ responsible for service failures (67.7%) and consider failure severity to be serious（43.0﹪）. In addition, 63.4% of orphans whose assigned agents never kept contact with them after their original agents left thought that is a serious service failure. 3. Orphans’ behavior responses Over 60% of respondents show dissatisfaction with the service recovery from insurers and agents. W-O-M behaviors of respondents show a negative 64% and a positive 12.9%. Repurchase intentions of respondents show a negative 69.8% and a positive 16.4%. 4. Expected service recovery of orphan policyholders The first 3 highest expectations of orphans are that 1) The agent must make a clear description of rights and responsibilities of the policy that an orphan holds, 2) Offer options that are beneficial to orphans while willing to cancel the policy, and 3) The ability for the insured to have the right to choose an agent who is a better fit without restrictions. The first two lowest expectations of orphans are 1) Agents who work for competitors are willing to listen and show their concerns, and 2) Agents who work for competitors are willing to offer assistance in need.” To compare the names of service recovery that are reasoned by literature review to those that are given by factor analysis show that the former names tend to be distinguished by recovery action, the latter ones are related to subjects who offer service. 5. The result of hypothesis testing a. Orphans who have service needs consider service failure more serious than those who don’t have service needs. b. Factors that affect expected service recovery Orphans consider service failure more crucial, they expect a higher degree of service recovery and more actions of service recovery. c. Factors that affect the secondary satisfaction The gaps between expected and practical service recovery have significant influences on the secondary satisfaction. The bigger the gaps are, the lower an orphan’s secondary satisfaction tends to be. The gaps have more influence than failure severity on the secondary satisfaction. Besides, the gaps also have more influence than the difference of failure attribution on the secondary satisfaction. d. Factors that affect orphans’ W-O-M behaviors The secondary satisfaction has a great influence on an orphan’s W-O-M behavior. The lower secondary satisfaction, the more negative the W-O-M behavior. The gaps between expected and practical service recovery are more influential than the differences in the failure of attribution on orphans’ W-O-M behaviors. e. Factors that affect orphans’ repurchase intentions The secondary satisfaction greatly influences on an orphan’s repurchase intentions. The lower the secondary satisfaction is the greater the decrease in repurchase intentions. The gaps between expected and practical service recovery are more influential than the difference of failure attribution on orphans’ repurchase intentions. 6. Effective strategies of service recovery for orphan policyholders In order to enhance secondary satisfaction for policyholders, life insurers have to devote themselves to service correction and improvement of the agents’ complaint-handling skills. Evidence shows that the factors of service correction and agents’ excellent complaint-handling skills have significant effects on the secondary satisfaction. Thus, the factors of service correction and agents’ excellent complaint-handling skills are the most effective strategies of service recovery for orphan policyholders.

團體壽險是員工福利思潮下之產物，至今已成為分散、轉嫁企業人身及責任風險不可或缺之風險管理工具。而團體壽險以一張保險單承保多數被保險人，此項「團體」之特性使其在核保、保險費、部分有效性及契約條款之設計上，有別於一般之人壽保險。目前，各家保險公司之團體壽險保險單悉以主管機關制訂之「團體一年定期人壽保險單示範條款」為依據。此示範條款以團體為要保人、團體成員為被保險人，將團體壽險定位為由第三人訂立之人壽保險契約，使團體壽險契約受到欠缺保險利益而無效、有無保險法第一○五條之適用及指定、變更受益人之權利人為誰之質疑。其次，團體壽險契約條款中的保險契約構成部分條款、被保險人資格條款、保險契約終止條款、契約轉換權條款、免責條款及不可抗爭條款等亦存在諸多問題，實有檢討予以修正之必要。 因此，本文乃以探討示範條款所涉法律爭議問題為中心，參酌國內學說見解並比較美國判例及美國保險監理官協會所制訂之「團體壽險定義及標準條款模範法案」，對團體壽險契約條款之增訂及修正提出七項建議，包括重新定位團體壽險契約當事人、重視逆選擇防範及被保險人權益保障、明訂兩年不可抗爭期間及團體信用壽險不適用契約轉換權條款及受益人條款、修正個別被保險人保險契約終止之時點及保險人免責事由等，希冀本文之淺見能使示範條款更為完善。 / Group life insurance arises from the thought that employers have the responsibilities to take care of their employees. Until now, group life insurance has become an important part of industries’ risk management plans for distributing and transferring industries’ life and liability risk. Group life insurance insures more than five persons in one policy, and this “group” characteristic makes group life insurance different from general life insurance in many aspects: underwriting, premiums, partly effective and contract clauses. Presently, provisions of group life policies are based on“Model Provisions for Group Yearly Term life Policies”promulgated by competent authority. According to Article 2 of the model provisions, the policyholder is the “group”, and the members of the group are insureds. In other words, group life insurance is entered into by third party. This causes three problems needed to be solved: (1) If the policyholder has no insurable interest in the insured, shall group life insurance be void? (2) Is Article 105 of Insurance Act applicable to group life insurance? (3) Who has the right to designate or change the beneficiary? In addition, there are still some problems in other model provisions including the entire-contract provision, eligibility requirements provision, termination provision, conversion provision, exception clause and incontestability provision. It is necessary to review and revise the model provisions. Therefore, this study focuses on related legal issues of the model provisions. Referring to scholars’ opinions and comparing American verdicts and “Group Life Insurance Definition and Group Life Insurance Standard Provisions Model Act” issued by The National Association of Insurance Commissioners, this study concludes by providing several suggestions in revising the model provisions: (1) The policyholder and the insured should be referred to as members of the group, not “group”. (2) Emphasize on preventing adverse-selection and protecting the insured’s right. (3) Augment incontestable period of two years and a clause which provides that conversion provision and beneficiary provision are not applicable to credit group life insurance. (4) Revise the termination provision and exception clause. Hope these suggestions will make the model provisions more perfect.

本文針對躉繳保費的附保證變額壽險進行評價，保單形式為生死合險，假設投保人可將期初的投資金額連結到兩種投資標的：股價指數及債券型基金，並以BGM模型描述利率的動態過程，然後分別計算不含解約權及含解約權的附保證變額壽險躉繳保費，進而求算出隱含在保單中的保證價值和解約權價值。針對含解約權的附保證變額壽險，以Longstaff and Schwartz(2001)提出的最小平方蒙地卡羅法處理解約的問題。最後，我們求算不同年齡下的男性保費，並且在投資比例、起始最低保證、最低保證給付成長率、針對解約的保證給付成長率和第一個允許的解約時點變動下，分別討論對於保證價值和解約權價值的影響。 結果顯示：(1)當起始最低保證給付等於期初投資金額時，投資在股票的比例越大，越能凸顯保證價值和解約權價值佔保費的比重。以30歲男性為例，保證價值佔不含解約權之附保證變額壽險的比例，由全部投資在債券型基金的0.03%，成長到全部投資在股票的13.86%；而解約權價值佔含解約權之附保證變額壽險的比例，由全部投資在債券型基金的0.05%，成長到全部投資在股票的9.12%。(2)投資比例、起始最低保證給付和最低保證給付成長率越大，保證價值越高。(3)起始最低保證給付和針對解約的保證給付成長率越大，解約權價值越大；而最低保證給付成長率和第一個允許的解約時點越大，解約權價值越小。(4)投資比例隨著最低保證給付不同對解約權價值有不同的影響。 關鍵字：附保證變額壽險、BGM利率模型、解約選擇權、最小平方蒙地卡羅法 / This study emphasizes on the pricing of variable life insurance with minimum guarantees. As an endowment policy in a single premium form, in this paper, it is assumed that the insured can distribute the initial investment amount into two underlying assets: the stock index fund and bond fund. Simulating the interest rate under a BGM model, computational procedures are performed for the single premium of the variable life insurance policy without surrender option and embedding a surrender option, and further, the guarantee value and surrender value embedded in the insurance policy. For the variable life insurance policy embedding a surrender option, the Least Square Monte-Carlo method proposed by Longstaff and Schwartz (2001) is applied to solve the surrender conditions. Finally, we calculate the premium for a male at different ages, and respectively analyze the variations of the guarantee value and surrender value under the influence of the investment portfolio, the initial minimum guaranteed amount, the growth rate of the minimum guarantee, the growth rate of the minimum guarantee for surrender and the first permitted surrender time. The results show that: (1) when the initial minimum guaranteed amount equals the initial investment amount, higher proportion invested in stock will result in larger percentage of the guarantee value and surrender value to total premium. Take a 30-year old male as an example: the percentage of guarantee value to the premium of variable life insurance with minimum guarantee and without a surrender option, which is 0.03% when the initial investment amount thoroughly goes to bond fund, rises up to 13.86% with the entire amount invested in stock index fund. Likewise, the percentage of surrender value to the premium of variable life insurance with minimum guarantee and surrender option is 0.05% with total amount invested in bond fund, while it is 9.12% with the entire amount invested in stock index fund. (2) The higher proportion invested in stock, the initial minimum guaranteed amount and the growth rate of minimum guaranteed amount, the larger guarantee value. (3) Larger initial minimum guaranteed amount and the growth rate of the minimum guaranteed amount for surrender would contribute to a higher surrender value. The higher growth rate of the minimum guaranteed amount and the first permitted surrender time, the lower surrender value. (4) The influence of the investment portfolio to surrender value depends on the initial minimum guaranteed amount. Key words: Variable life insurance with minimum guaranteed amount, BGM interest rate model, surrender option, least squares Monte Carlo approach.

The life and career of Albert Wicker, Jr. (1869-1928), reflects the growth of the new urban African-American middle class in New Orleans, Louisiana, in the early years of the twentieth century. He spent his career working for advances in education while using memberships in churches, Masonic groups, insurance companies, benevolent societies, and educational leagues to achieve his personal and professional goals. The networks created by him and others along the way illustrate not only complexity of black life in New Orleans but also the growing tendency of differing ethnic groups to work together to achieve common economic, political, social objectives.

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本文就壽險業投資情況、投資組合與不動產市場的關聯性進行討論，介紹壽險業目前的營運狀況、資金來源以及資金運用的情況與限制等；並且試圖描述不動產市場之情形，說明壽險業可能進入不動產市場的契機、以及提出資金進入不動產市場的可能策略；其後建立新的不動產市場投資之變數，本文以不動產貸款抵押債券投入所建立的MIN－MAD﹙Mean-absolute Deviation﹚Model，瞭解投入此新變數後對投資組合的變化並比較其不同之處，藉此探究以其他方式將資金投入是否為一可行之策略。

隨著我國壽險業資產比率快速增加，投資績效不但影響眾多保戶的權益，更影響整體經濟之安定，但面臨現今全球金融和經濟環境劇烈動盪，加上壽險同業間激烈競爭的情況，我國壽險公司如何訂定投資策略做好資產配置，對壽險公司的營運健全而言相當重要。現行保險法第一百四十六條限制壽險公司的投資上限，但法令限制對壽險公司資產配置的影響為何，本研究將透過Markowitz的平均數－變異數投資組合模式對我國整體壽險業及國泰人壽、南山人壽、新光人壽及富邦人壽探討之；並以夏普指數、崔納指數及詹森指數，評估上述四家壽險公司之資金運用績效；另藉由分析壽險業之資金成本是否低於實際投資率，以達成研究壽險業長期資產配置之穩健度。 本研究主要結論如下：1.運用Markowitz 投資組合模型所推導出的效率前緣，以最大Sharpe Measure評估，不受法令限制下所建立之最佳投資組合，較有受法令限制下所建立之最佳投資組合的期望報酬率高，且分散風險的效果較佳。2.整體壽險業及前四大壽險公司之實際投資報酬率皆低於其實際投資組合之期望報酬，顯示壽險業於資金運用的靈活度及績效性有改善的空間。3.以績效評估指標求出前四大壽險公司的資金運用績效，發現新光人壽在此三項評估指標皆位居最後；國泰人壽在評估中皆名列前茅。4.新光人壽的平均實際報酬率低於平均資金成本，應控管好資金成本並加強投資組合之績效；富邦人壽平均實際報酬率高過平均資金成本最多，顯示富邦人壽在資金成本控管及投資績效有良好之表現。整體壽險業的實際報酬率亦高於平均資金成本，顯示我國壽險業於營運狀況正常。 / With the life insurance companies’ assets ratio rapidly increasing, the investment performances affect not only the right of a number of policy holders, but also affect the economic stability. However, facing the dynamic global financial and economic environment and the keen competition in the domestic life insurance industry, the life insurance companies need to adopt the proper investment strategy. Law of Insurance 146th p restricts the investment upper limit of the life insurance company. This research will use Markowitz MV model to discuss the influence of this investment restriction on life insurance companies’ asset allocation by the samples of Life industry, Cathay Life Insurance, Nan Shan Life Insurance, Shin Kong Life Insurance, and Fubon Life Insurance, and evaluate the performances of these four life insurance companies by Sharpe ratio, Treynor ratio, and Jensen’s measure. This research also analyze the cost of capital and real rate of return of these companies to examine the stability of life insurance industry’s long term asset allocation. The conclusions of this research are as follows: 1.Evaluated by the Markowitz efficient frontier and the Sharpe measure, there is the higher expected rate of return and better diversification with no investment restriction. 2.The actual rates of return of the life insurance industry and the above four life insurance companies are below the expected rates of returns of their portfolio evaluated be the Sharpe measure, which means the life insurance industry need to prove their capital allocation. 3. Comparing the performance of the life insurance companies by the performance indicator, we find the then Shin Kong Life Insurance is the last, while Cathay Life Insurance has a good score. 4. We also find the real rate of return of Shin Kong Life Insurance is lower than its cost of capital, which means Shin Kong Life Insurance need to adjust its cost of capital and the investment performance. Meanwhile, Fubon Life Insurance is the excellent in controlling the cost of capital and investment. The real rate of return of the Life insurance industry is higher than its cost of capital, and that shows the Life insurance industry has normal operation.

近年隨著油價、物價上漲所導致的通貨膨脹風險，壽險業者以增額型終身壽險來吸引潛在消費者。另外，由於醫療技術的進步，使得死亡率逐年改善，因此將造成保單在設計時可能將遭受到長壽風險的影響。本篇文章的主要目的即探討長壽風險對於保單責任準備金的影響，並以增額型終身壽險作為本文主要分析標的。首先建構死亡率模型(Lee-Carter模型)，用來配適並模擬死亡率，接著探討增額型終身壽險在各保單年度下之現金流量以及責任準備金的提存，進一步再引進不同的死亡率來探討其現金流量分佈情形與責任準備金之提存。本文研究結果發現，在保險公司未採用遞迴方式計算保費時，當繳費期間愈短、複利利率愈高以及投保年齡愈低時，保險公司所面臨之長壽風險愈大，其後在帶入各種不同死亡率模型，發現死亡改善率愈高，保險公司所面臨之長壽風險愈大，而保險公司在提存責任準備金時，並未考慮到死亡改善率的部分，此對保險公司的財務健全將造成隱憂，本文於此部分建議監理機關透過法規(RBC)的制訂，調整準備金提存的係數，以降低長壽風險對保險公司財務之衝擊。 關鍵字：長壽風險、死亡率模型、增額型終身壽險、保單責任準備金、增額準備金、Lee-Carter Model以及RBC制度。 / With the improvement of medical technology, the life expectancy around the world is increasing year by year during the past decade. Therefore, the increasing whole life insurance policy is popular during these years because its benefits are escalating with time and policyholders think they could gain more benefits when they live longer. Like annuity policies, the increasing whole life insurance could also suffer from the longevity risk, which may have enormous impact on the financial statements of insurers. The purpose of this paper is to discuss the impact of longevity risk on reserves, based on increasing whole life insurance policy. First, we construct Lee-Carter model to fit and simulate mortality rate and assume different mortality improvements from the 2002 Taiwan Standard Ordinary Experience Mortality Table (2002TSO) for further comparisons. And then, we construct a simple model to analyze the cash flows of the increasing whole life policies based on the mortality rates we observed. By constructing a simple model and simulation, we find that if the insurance company does not correctly estimate longevity risk, the insurance company will lose money on the increasing whole life policies. In order to mitigate the insufficiency of life insurers for the increasing whole life policies, we try to provide some supervision suggestion from the view of the risk-based capital (RBC) requirements. We calculate the factor of insurance risk (C2) of RBC requirements because this factor represents the surplus needed to provide for excess claims over expected, both from random fluctuations and from inaccurate pricing for future levels of claims. Keywords: longevity risk, increasing whole life insurance policy, Lee-Carter model, risk-based capital (RBC).