O desempenho satisfatório da produção e exportação de soja e milho nos últimos anos, e projeções futuras do agronegócio, firmam o Brasil no cenário mundial como um dos maiores produtores e exportadores destas commodities. Para atender a demanda de escoamento das safras nos próximos anos, o Brasil precisará desenvolver e modernizar as rodovias, ferrovias, hidrovias, terminais portuários e plataformas logísticas. A produção das safras dos grãos destinada à exportação, embora cultivadas em épocas distintas, causam em determinados períodos congestionamento nos portos do sul e sudeste. Com a expectativa de crescimento da produção e exportação destas oleaginosas, as plataformas logísticas localizadas no norte e nordeste tornaram-se as principais alternativas para a redução dos custos logísticos no escoamento das safras, apesar de ainda apresentarem deficiências na infraestrutura de transporte. O incentivo ao investimento privado em portos públicos, através de decretos que regulamentam a Lei dos Portos (Lei Nº 12.815/2013), é uma estratégia importante para Governo Federal desenvolver novas rotas logísticas mais eficientes. Posto isso, a pesquisa baseou-se no método Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) para identificar e avaliar os principais critérios analisados por decisores na escolha de investimentos, visto as alternativas de arrendamento de área e infraestrutura em porto organizado e implantação de terminal de uso privado. / The satisfactory performance of the production and export of soybean and corn in the last years and future projections of the agribusiness, makes Brazil in the world scenario as one of the biggest producers and exporters of these commodities. In order to meet export demand in the coming years, Brazil will need to develop and modernize highways, railways, waterways, port terminals and logistics platforms. The production of grains for export, although developed at different times, causes in certain periods congestion in the ports of the south and southeast. With the expectation of increasing the production and export of these oleaginous products, the logistic platforms located in north and northeast have become the main alternatives for the reduction of logistical costs, although they still present deficiencies in the transport infrastructure. The encouraging private investment in public ports, through decrees that regulate the Law of Ports (Law Nº 12.815/2013), is an important strategy for the Federal Government to develop new routes and to provide an efficient logistics. Thus, the research was based on the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) method to identify and evaluate the main criteria analyzed by decision-makers in the choice of investments, seeing the alternatives of area and infrastructure leasing in organized port and implementation of private use terminal.

Submitted by Secretaria Pós de Produção (tpp@vm.uff.br) on 2017-07-27T18:37:04Z No. of bitstreams: 1 D2014 - Roberta Braga Neves.pdf: 4743527 bytes, checksum: caa5fccbd161f89db27e21cfa1d76477 (MD5) / Made available in DSpace on 2017-07-27T18:37:04Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 D2014 - Roberta Braga Neves.pdf: 4743527 bytes, checksum: caa5fccbd161f89db27e21cfa1d76477 (MD5) / Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior / Objetivo Este estudo tem o objetivo de propor uma modelagem para identificar a postura estratégica a ser adotada por uma Instituição de Ensino Superior (IES), considerando a geração de patente, através da integração do ELECTRE TRI original e variações (ELECTRE TRI ME e CPP-TRI), métodos de Auxílio Multicritério à Decisão (AMD), à Análise SWOT, ferramenta de Diagnóstico Estratégico. Metodologia/Abordagem A visão macro da metodologia de pesquisa divide-a em quatro momentos. Primeiro, foi realizada uma revisão da literatura, concentrada em quatro eixos: métodos de AMD aplicados a patente; ferramentas de Diagnóstico Estratégico aplicadas a patente; integração de métodos de AMD e ferramentas de Diagnóstico Estratégico; e fatores influenciadores na geração de patente na Universidade. Em seguida, com base no levantamento na literatura dos fatores influenciadores na produção de patente; na aplicação de questionário e pesquisa com docentes da Escola de Engenharia da Universidade Federal Fluminense; e na análise do conteúdo textual dos fatores relacionados, por meio da aplicação das ferramentas Many Eyes e Wordle, foi proposto o conjunto de 24 critérios para avaliação. Em um terceiro momento foi elaborado o questionário para a coleta da percepções dos dirigentes da Escola. Por fim, foi efetuada a aplicação da modelagem proposta e, consequentemente, identificada a postura estratégica a ser adotada pela Instituição. Resultados O método ELECTRE TRI ME demonstrou-se o mais adequado, uma vez que foi desenvolvido para ser utilizado em problemas de decisão envolvendo múltiplos avaliadores e por permitir atribuir a cada avaliador, para cada critério, um peso próprio. A análise dos resultados indicou que, para quaisquer planos de corte λ ϵ [0,5; 1,0], o decisor deverá optar pelo procedimento menos exigente ou mais exigente. Na aplicação do método ELECTRE TRI original, para realizar uma única classificação, fez-se necessária a utilização da frequência dos resultados, não demonstrando ser eficiente, uma vez que, ao se realizar a análise de sensibilidade com a variação do plano de corte, evidenciou-se o problema de redistribuição desproporcional para outras classes. O método CPP-TRI demonstrou-se robusto e estável ao se variar o plano de corte, indicando, para todos os planos de corte analisados e para ambos os procedimentos de classificação, que a Instituição deverá adotar estratégias de Crescimento. A pesquisa também permitiu identificar os critérios mais favoráveis e menos favoráveis para a geração de patente na IES avaliada. Assim sendo, considerando as variáveis internas, para os procedimentos benevolente e exigente, foram identificados como pontos fracos: Cultura de patente , Infraestrutura , Normas institucionais , Disciplina na grade curricular e/ou divulgação (palestras) e Progressão na carreira . Já para as variáveis externas, em ambos os procedimentos de classificação, os critérios Sistema de avaliação de pós-graduação , Área de atividade de pesquisa , Premiação , Reconhecimento profissional , Bolsa de pesquisa , Financiamento pela indústria , Financiamento por agências de fomento à pesquisa , Mercado de Consultoria , Desenvolvimento colaborativo de projetos de P&D e Retorno sobre o investimento foram considerados oportunidades. Limitações da Pesquisa O estudo não considera a percepção de grupos da Escola de Engenharia como: alunos, corpo docente, ex-alunos e profissionais da indústria. Contribuições Práticas Espera-se que a pesquisa seja aplicada em outras IES e auxilie os gestores na tomada de decisão. Originalidade A originalidade da pesquisa está pautada no exercício sistematizado para construção do conjunto inédito de critérios para avaliação de IES; na ausência, constatada pela revisão da literatura, de publicações que abordem a integração de métodos da família ELECTRE à Análise SWOT; e na lacuna de estudos que realizem aplicação de métodos de AMD ou ferramentas de Diagnóstico Estratégico ao tema patente no âmbito de IES. / Purpose This study aims to propose a model to identify the strategic posture to be adopted by an Higher Education Institution (HEI), considering the generation of patent, by integrating the original ELECTRE TRI and variations (ELECTRE TRI ME and CPP - TRI) , methods of Multicriteria Decision Aid (MCDA) , the SWOT Analysis, Strategic Diagnostic tool. Methodology/Approach The macro view of research methodology is divided into four stages. First, a literature review focused on four areas has been implemented: MCDA methods applied to patent; Strategic Diagnostic tools applied to patent; Integration MCDA methods and Strategic Diagnostic tools; and influencers factors in generating patent in the University. After, based on the literature survey of influencers factors in the production of patent; a questionnaire and interview with teachers from the Escola de Engenharia of the Universidade Federal Fluminense, and the analysis of textual content of the related factors, through the application of tools Many Eyes and Wordle, a set of 24 evaluation criteria was proposed. In a third step, the questionnaire to collect the perceptions of Escola leaders was prepared. Finally, the application of the proposed modeling was effected and, consequently, identified the strategic posture to be adopted by the institution. Findings The ELECTRE TRI ME method proved to be the most appropriate, since it was developed to be used in decision problems involving multiple evaluators and it permits assign each appraiser, for each criterion, a weight. The analysis of the results indicated that, for any cutting plane λ ϵ [0,5; 1,0], the decision maker must choose the pessimistic or optimistic procedure. In the application of original ELECTRE TRI method, to achieve a single classification, it was necessary to use the frequency of results, which proved not to be efficient, since, when achievement sensitivity analysis by varying the cutting plane, became evident the problem of disproportionate redistribution to other classes. The CPP - TRI method has proven to be robust and stable when varying the cutting plane. Therefore, for all cutting planes analyzed and for both classification procedures, the Institution should adopt improvement strategies. The research identified the most favorable and least favorable evaluation criteria for the generation of patent in HEI. So, given the internal variables for the pessimistic procedure, were identified as weaknesses: "Patent culture ", "Infrastructure", "Institutional norms", "Discipline in the curriculum and/or disclosure (lectures)" and "Career Progression". For the external variables in both classification procedures, the criteria "Evaluation System Graduate", "Award", "Professional recognition", "Search grant", "Funding by industry", "Funding by agencies fostering research", "Consulting market", "Collaborative development of projects in R&D" and "Return on investment" were considered opportunities. Research Limitations - The study does not consider the perception of groups as alumni, teachers, graduates and industry professionals. Practical Implications It is expected that research is applied in other HEI and aid managers in decision making. Originality The originality of the research is guided in the systematic exercise of construction of the unprecedented set of evaluation criteria of HEI; in the absence, evidenced by the literature review of publications that address the integration of ELECTRE methods to the SWOT Analysis, and the gap of studies which realize application of MCDA methods or of Strategic Diagnostic tools to the patent topic within HEI.

Submitted by Secretaria Pós de Produção (tpp@vm.uff.br) on 2017-08-01T01:26:36Z No. of bitstreams: 1 M2016 - Jose Artur Moraes Vieira.pdf: 2506150 bytes, checksum: 586cf2bf3d9b631d29846fc88be94f0a (MD5) / Made available in DSpace on 2017-08-01T01:26:36Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 M2016 - Jose Artur Moraes Vieira.pdf: 2506150 bytes, checksum: 586cf2bf3d9b631d29846fc88be94f0a (MD5) / As discussões recentes sugerem a utilização de recursos de maneira otimizada, dada a sua escassez cada vez mais presente, sejam ambientais, de prazo, financeiros, políticos ou legais. Tal fato torna a tomada de decisão e planejamento estratégico baseados em cenários futuros uma tarefa complexa, já que dispõe alternativas múltiplas e incertas. Este estudo, então, propõe um modelo para prospecção de cenários apoiado na abordagem de Auxílio Multicritério à Decisão (AMD), considerando obrigatoriamente, fatores políticos, econômicos, sociais, tecnológicos e ambientais, que possa ser utilizado como ferramenta para auxiliar no planejamento estratégico das empresas e aplica-lo em uma empresa de serviços de engenharia, localizada no Estado do Rio de Janeiro. A motivação do tema estudado está na possibilidade da aplicação de técnicas AMD no planejamento estratégico. Como resultado foi mostrada a utilidade do modelo proposto visto que possibilitou ao gestor analisar alternativas através da prospecção de futuros realizada. / Recent discussions suggest the use of resources optimally, given their scarcity increasingly present, whether environmental, term, financial, political or legal. This fact makes the decision-making and strategic planning based on future scenarios a complex task, as it has multiple and uncertain alternatives. This study then proposes a model for prospecting scenarios supported in Multicriteria Decision Aid (AMD), considering necessarily political, economic, social, technological and environmental factors, which can be used as an auxiliary tool in strategic planning companies and apply it in an engineering services company located in the state of Rio de Janeiro. The motivation of the subject studied is the possibility of applying AMD techniques in strategic planning. As a result was shown the usefulness of the proposed visa that enabled the manager to analyze alternatives over the prospect of future held model.

A educação superior no Brasil exige que as instituições de ensino procurem melhorar suas práticas educacionais, com o objetivo de aumentar a qualidade de seus cursos. Neste trabalho foi desenvolvido um protocolo para avaliação do uso de Ambientes Virtuais de Aprendizagem em Instituições de Ensino Superior, com base em uma pesquisa sobre a utilização de ferramentas e recursos de AVA. Para tratamento dos dados do diagnóstico de utilização, são propostas duas metodologias multicritério de apoio à decisão, AHP para obtenção dos pesos dos critérios e Promethee para classificação dos cursos em grupos. Fez-se também uma comparação da aplicação deste protocolo em dois cenários distintos (cenário 1, com o mesmo valor de peso para todos os critérios e o cenário 2, com valores de pesos atribuídos segundo uma das possibilidades encontradas na literatura), de modo a propor alternativas que contribuam para aprimorar as práticas educacionais. / Higher education in Brazil requires that educational institutions seeking to improve their educational practices, in order to increase the quality of their courses. In this work we developed a protocol for evaluating the use of Virtual Learning Environments in Higher Education Institutions. For treatment of data from diagnostic use of two methodologies are proposed multicriteria decision support; AHP to obtain the weights of the criteria for classification of PROMETHEE and courses in groups. There was also a comparison of the implementation of this protocol in two different scenarios (scenario 1, with the same weight for all criteria and scenario 2, with values of weights assigned according to the possibilities found in the literature), in order to propose alternatives that contribute to improve educational practices.

Many professions occasionally involve the selection of an alternative from among many problem solutions which have impacts in multiple-interest areas; however, due to the very nature of his work, the practicing engineer, regardless of specialty, is unavoidably engaged in this selection process. The emergence of national concern for environmental and social consequences of technical enterprises, as reflected through legislative action, has accentuated the need for multicriteria design methodologies in some areas of engineering (i.e., automotive). Consequently, interest in the development of pragmatic and theoretically sound approaches to multi-impact design situations has been keen. Any approach to multicriteria design/decision problems involves two fundamental aspects: (1) generating information regarding the range of possible designs and their associated impacts; and (2) generating relative value information which is used to compare the relative imp-cats leading to the selection of a "preferred" or "best compromise" alternative. The methodology developed herein is the integration of a formal mathematical programming technique for generating the full range of feasible alternatives with a pragmatic and well-accepted group-interaction technique for extracting value information regarding alternatives. The integration results in an iterative group-interaction process which leads to successive reductions in the preferred range of alternatives until the most preferred alternative is identified. The methodology developed in this research represents an improvement over other methodologies reported in the literature in two areas: 1) The noninferior set is explicitly identified insuring selection of a group decision point which is noninferior, 2) a least squared error mathematical filtering technique is developed for smoothing relative value data obtained from the decision making body. In addition, a convergence proof is developed which not only indicates the theoretically sound and robust nature of the algorithm developed in this work but in addition provides a basis for an improved class of algorithms for solving classical nonlinear constrained problems. The technique was developed for and implemented in an interactive software package. The multiobjective decision problem is solved in a single encounter with a cooperative decision making group.

This thesis develops an integrated methodology based on the desirability index and QSAR models to virtually optimise molecules. Statistical and algorithmic tools are proposed to search in huge collections of compounds obtained by combinatorial chemistry the most promising ones. First, once the drugability properties of interest have been precisely defined, QSAR models are developed to mimic the relationship between those optimised properties and chemical descriptors of molecules. The literature on QSAR models is reviewed and the statistical tools to validate the models, analyse their fit and their predictive power are detailed. Even if a QSAR model has been validated and sounds highly predictive, we emphasise the importance of measuring extrapolation by the definition of its applicability domain and quantifying the prediction error for a given molecule. Indeed, QSAR models are often massively applied to predict drugability properties for libraries of new compounds without taking care of the reliability of each individual prediction. Then, a desirability index measures the compromise between the multiple estimated drugability properties and allows to rank the molecules in the combinatorial library in preference order. The propagation of the models prediction error on the desirability index is quantified by a confidence interval that can be constructed under general conditions for linear regression, PLS regression or regression tree models. This fulfills an important lack of the desirability index literature that considers it as exact. Finally, a new efficient algorithm (WEALD) is proposed to virtually screen the combinatorial library and retain the molecule with the highest desirability indexes. For each explored molecule, it is checked if it belongs to the applicability domain of each QSAR models. In addition, the uncertainty of the desirability index of each explored molecule is taken into account by gathering molecules that can not be distinguished from the optimal one due to the propagation of QSAR models prediction error. Those molecules do not have a significantly smaller desirability than the optimal molecule found by WEALD. This constitutes another important improvement in the use of desirability index as a tool to compare solutions in a multicriteria optimisation problem. This integrated methodology has been developed in the context of lead optimisation and is illustrated on a real combinatorial library provided by Eli Lilly and Company. This is the main application of the thesis. Nevertheless, as the results on desirability index uncertainty are applicable under general conditions, they can be applied to any multicriteria optimisation problem, like it often occurs in industry.

Geometric errors may compromise the quality of radiation therapy treatments. Optimization methods that account for errors can reduce their effects. The first paper of this thesis introduces minimax optimization to account for systematic range and setup errors in intensity-modulated proton therapy. The minimax method optimizes the worst case outcome of the errors within a given set. It is applied to three patient cases and shown to yield improved target coverage robustness and healthy structure sparing compared to conventional methods using margins, uniform beam doses, and density override. Information about the uncertainties enables the optimization to counterbalance the effects of errors. In the second paper, random setup errors of uncertain distribution---in addition to the systematic range and setup errors---are considered in a framework that enables scaling between expected value and minimax optimization. Experiments on a phantom show that the best and mean case tradeoffs between target coverage and critical structure sparing are similar between the methods of the framework, but that the worst case tradeoff improves with conservativeness. Minimax optimization only considers the worst case errors. When the planning criteria cannot be fulfilled for all errors, this may have an adverse effect on the plan quality. The third paper introduces a method for such cases that modifies the set of considered errors to maximize the probability of satisfying the planning criteria. For two cases treated with intensity-modulated photon and proton therapy, the method increased the number of satisfied criteria substantially. Grasping for a little less sometimes yields better plans. In the fourth paper, the theory for multicriteria optimization is extended to incorporate minimax optimization. Minimax optimization is shown to better exploit spatial information than objective-wise worst case optimization, which has previously been used for robust multicriteria optimization. The fifth and sixth papers introduce methods for improving treatment plans: one for deliverable Pareto surface navigation, which improves upon the Pareto set representations of previous methods; and one that minimizes healthy structure doses while constraining the doses of all structures not to deteriorate compared to a reference plan, thereby improving upon plans that have been reached with too weak planning goals. / <p>QC 20130516</p>

An increasing number of agencies have begun to define sustainability for transportation systems and are taking steps to incorporate the concept into the regional transportation planning process. Planning for sustainable transportation systems should at the very least incorporate their broader impacts on system effectiveness, environmental integrity, economic development, and the social quality of life. This study reviews definitions, performance measures, and evaluation methodologies for transportation system sustainability and demonstrates a framework for incorporating sustainability considerations in transportation planning and decision making. Through a case study using data from the Atlanta Metropolitan Region, the study evaluates competing transportation and land use plans based on a broad range of sustainability parameters using relevant spatial and environmental analyses. A multiple criteria decision making (MCDM) method enables the aggregation of individual performance measures into four basic indexes and further into a composite sustainability index based on regional goals and priorities. The value of the indexes lies in their ability to capture the multidimensional nature of sustainability as well as important tradeoffs among the potentially conflicting decision criteria. A decision support tool is proposed to visualize dominance and tradeoffs when evaluating alternatives and to effectively reflect changing regional priorities over time. The proposed framework should help decision makers with incorporating sustainability considerations into transportation planning as well as identifying superior plans for predetermined objectives.

Η επιλογή και η αξιολόγηση προσωπικού είναι ένα σημαντικό πρόβλημα, το οποίο μπορεί να επηρεάσει την αποτελεσματικότητα και την αποδοτικότητα μιας επιχείρησης. Διάφορες ποσοτικές μέθοδοι έχουν προταθεί ως βοήθεια για τη λήψη τέτοιων αποφάσεων. Η παρούσα εργασία παρουσιάζει τα πιο σημαντικά και ευρέως γνωστά μοντέλα, που χρησιμοποιούνται στα πεδία επιλογής και αξιολόγησης προσωπικού. Επικεντρώνεται επίσης σε μια ανάλυση του MACBETH (Measuring Attractiveness by a Categorical Based Evaluation Technique). Το MACBETH είναι μια πολυκριτηριακή προσέγγιση λήψης αποφάσεων, η οποία απαιτεί μόνο ποιοτικές κρίσεις σε σχέση με τις αξίες και βοηθά τους αποφασίζοντες να ποσοτικοποιήσουν τις διαφορές ελκυστικότητας των επιλογών. Τέλος εφαρμόζουμε αυτή την τεχνική χρησιμοποιώντας το λογισμικό M-MACBETH, χρησιμοποιώντας πραγματικά δεδομένα μεγάλης ελληνικής τράπεζας. / The employee evaluation and selection system is an important problem that can significantly affect the future competiveness and the performance of an organization. Various quantitative methods have been proposed as an aid to such decisions. This work presents the most important and common models, that are used in the employee evaluation and selection area. It also focuses on a comprehensive overview of MACBETH (Measuring Attractiveness by a Categorical Based Evaluation Technique). MACBETH is a multicriteria decision analysis approach, which requires only qualitative judgements about differences of value to help a decision maker quantify the relative attractiveness of options. Finally, an application of this technique takes place using M-MACBETH software, based on real data from a big Greek bank.

Η παρούσα μεταπτυχιακή εργασία πραγματεύεται το πρόβλημα του σχεδιασμού του ωρολογίου προγράμματος μαθημάτων ενός εκπαιδευτικού ιδρύματος και πιο συγκεκριμένα ενός πανεπιστημίου. Λόγω της πολυπλοκότητας και της ύπαρξης πολυάριθμων μεταβλητών και παραμέτρων το πρόβλημα ανήκει στην κατηγορία των NP-complete προβλημάτων, γεγονός που κάνει την εξεύρεση της βέλτιστης λύσης μία πολύ δύσκολη υπόθεση. Η βιβλιογραφική ανασκόπηση έδειξε ότι έχουν προταθεί και εφαρμόζονται πολλές και διαφορετικές μεθοδολογίες επίλυσης του προβλήματος. Οι τεχνικές προέρχονται από πολλούς και διαφορετικούς τομείς όπως για παράδειγμα το μαθηματικό προγραμματικό, τον ακέραιο γραμμικό προγραμματισμό, τις μετα-ευρετικές μεθόδους, αλλά και από τον χώρο της Τεχνητής Νοημοσύνης. Η μέθοδος επίλυσης, που προτείνεται από την παρούσα εργασία, είναι η πολυκριτηριακή ανάλυση βασιζόμενη στον συναινετικό προγραμματισμό (compromise programming). Η εφαρμογή της μεθόδου σε δεδομένα προβλημάτων ωρολογίου προγραμματισμού, είχε πολύ ικανοποιητικά αποτελέσματα, καθώς προεκύψαν ποιοτικά ωρολόγια προγράμματα, που ικανοποιούσαν όλους τους περιορισμούς. / The timetabling problem constists in scheduling a sequence of lectures between teachers and students in a prefixed period of time, satisfying a set of constraints of various type. Due to the complexity and the existence of many variables and parameters, the problem belongs in the category of NP-complete problems, fact that makes the discovery of an optimal solution, a very difficult affair. The bibliographic search, showed that have been proposed and are applied many and different solving techniques, which are based on Mathematical programming (Integer Linear Programming), on Graph Colouring, on Meta-Heuristics Methods, on Multicriteria approaches, on Case-based approaches, but also belonging to Artificial Intelligence. In this paper, the multicriteria approach based on Compromise programming is suggested. The application of technique in timetable data of an educational institute, had very good results, and provided qualitative timetables, satisfying all constraints.