In a more complex and interdependent world, nations face new challenges that threaten their national security. National security should not be understood exclusively in the way of military threats by adversarial states but in a broader way: how old and new sectoral threats affect not only a state and its institutions but a nation as a whole, physically and economically. This dissertation looks into how the nature of security threats and risks has evolved in recent years. This dissertation then explores how different nations have decided to publish national security strategy documents and analyzes the way in which they include this broadened understanding of security: it finds that there is evidence of international policy diffusion related to the publication of such security strategies and that nations are evolving towards a broader understanding of security that includes models like whole-of-government, and whole-of-society. In the second half, this dissertation analyzes the route through which Mexico has reformed its national security framework since the year 2000 through a policy streams approach. After looking at the path that led to the creation of Mexico’s modern national security institutions, it analyzes the way in which Mexico national interests can be determined and how these interests inform the way in which Mexico understands national security threats and risks in the 21st Century. / text

Approved for public release; distribution is unlimited / This thesis explains the military relationship between the United States and Pakistan in the context of their divergent national security interests. During the Cold War, U.S. concerns focused on the global contest between democracy and communism. In this competition, Pakistan was seen as an important ally. However, Pakistan viewed India as its primary threat and considered global ideological concerns as secondary in importance. At times, each country benefited from the other, but neither ever fully met the other's most important needs. The United States did not support Pakistan in its wars with India and Pakistan did not confront communism except to help oust Afghani governments non-compliant with Pakistan's interests. Pakistan's military held power for more than half of Pakistan's existence and became the U.S.' key ally in South Asia. Pakistan's pursuit of nuclear weapons distanced U.S. relations in the post-Cold War environment. The terrorist attacks of 11 September 2001 catapulted Pakistan's importance as an ally but at the cost of supporting a military regime and the erosion of a democratic government in Pakistan. This thesis argues that Pakistan's military now shares a relationship with the United States that builds regional stability but which may also hold political consequences in the United States. / Major, United States Marine Corps

The current president of the United States, Donald Trump, has been identified as the reason for a large shift in American foreign policy towards a doctrine closer to that of political realism. This claim has led us to examine if this transformation could be detected and described if we analyzed and compared Trump’s foreign policy doctrine with his predecessor, Barack Obama, through the lens Thomas Hobbes, whose ideas are at the core of the three modern schools of political realism. Accordingly, in this thesis, we deduce an analytical framework from the original corpus of Hobbes, where anarchy is divided into moral and empirical variables, identified as the primary factors for behavior in international settings. This is then applied inductively via a comparative qualitative content analysis to two primary documents, the National Security Strategies of 2010 containing the foreign policy doctrine of Obama, and the National Security Strategy of 2017 containing the doctrine of Trump. Our thesis shows a large shift in how the Presidents view the world in moral terms, or how they see it fit for the American executive to act on the international stage. And a relatively minor shift in empirical terms, or their perception of the foundational reality of the world system which they both consider to be of an anarchical nature closely connected to the theoretical model presented by our interpretation of Hobbes

Este trabalho tem o objetivo de observar as alterações da Doutrina Yoshida como norteadora do posicionamento internacional do Japão no início do século XXI. Para isso, abordaremos a relevância que o Leste Asiático tem para a delimitação das ameaças e como a lógica regional influencia diretamente a atuação do país, principalmente quanto aos temas de segurança. Utilizar-se-á a teoria dos complexos regionais de segurança para compreender a forma de inserção internacional do Japão, bem como embasar o aspecto de instabilidade que levaram às alterações da Doutrina Yoshida. Dentre as principais ameaças ao país, destacamos a relação sino-japonesa e as disputas nas gray zones, bem como a nuclearização norte-coreana. A aliança com os EUA e outros países do entorno regional também serão analisadas a fim de corroborar com a atuação internacional do Japão. Abordaremos também como a criação da Estratégia Nacional de Segurança japonesa e o pacifismo proativo complementam os fundamentos da Doutrina Yoshida na manutenção dos interesses nacionais do país perante as crescentes instabilidades do entorno asiático. / This paper aims to observe the changes of the Yoshida Doctrine as the guideline of Japans international performance in the beginning of the 21st century. In order to do it, we will focus on the threats of East Asia region as well as the relevance of the regional logic and how it directly influences the country\'s performance, especially regarding security issues. The theory of regional security complexes is used to understand Japan\'s international insertion, as well as to base the instability aspect that led to the changes in the Yoshida Doctrine. Among the main threats to the country, we highlight the Sino-Japanese relationship and the disputes in the gray zones, besides the North Korean nuclear program. The US alliance, as other regional countries alliances will also be analyzed in order to corroborate with the international performance of Japan. We will also address how the creation of the Japanese National Security Strategy and proactive pacifism complement the fundamentals principles of the Yoshida Doctrine in order to maintain the countrys interests in the growing instability of the Asian environment.

Este trabalho tem o objetivo de observar as alterações da Doutrina Yoshida como norteadora do posicionamento internacional do Japão no início do século XXI. Para isso, abordaremos a relevância que o Leste Asiático tem para a delimitação das ameaças e como a lógica regional influencia diretamente a atuação do país, principalmente quanto aos temas de segurança. Utilizar-se-á a teoria dos complexos regionais de segurança para compreender a forma de inserção internacional do Japão, bem como embasar o aspecto de instabilidade que levaram às alterações da Doutrina Yoshida. Dentre as principais ameaças ao país, destacamos a relação sino-japonesa e as disputas nas gray zones, bem como a nuclearização norte-coreana. A aliança com os EUA e outros países do entorno regional também serão analisadas a fim de corroborar com a atuação internacional do Japão. Abordaremos também como a criação da Estratégia Nacional de Segurança japonesa e o pacifismo proativo complementam os fundamentos da Doutrina Yoshida na manutenção dos interesses nacionais do país perante as crescentes instabilidades do entorno asiático. / This paper aims to observe the changes of the Yoshida Doctrine as the guideline of Japans international performance in the beginning of the 21st century. In order to do it, we will focus on the threats of East Asia region as well as the relevance of the regional logic and how it directly influences the country\'s performance, especially regarding security issues. The theory of regional security complexes is used to understand Japan\'s international insertion, as well as to base the instability aspect that led to the changes in the Yoshida Doctrine. Among the main threats to the country, we highlight the Sino-Japanese relationship and the disputes in the gray zones, besides the North Korean nuclear program. The US alliance, as other regional countries alliances will also be analyzed in order to corroborate with the international performance of Japan. We will also address how the creation of the Japanese National Security Strategy and proactive pacifism complement the fundamentals principles of the Yoshida Doctrine in order to maintain the countrys interests in the growing instability of the Asian environment.

One of the key features of the 2002 United States National Security Strategy was an abrupt shift from the traditional U.S. approach to proliferation threats that prioritized deterrence and promotion of nondiscriminatory nonproliferation norms, to an approach called counterproliferation that emphasized military preemption and direct challenges to adversarial state identity. This thesis asks the question, what caused counterproliferation to largely replace deterrence and nonproliferation as the central national security policies of the U.S. concerning unconventional weapons? The thesis argues that to understand this policy change requires not merely an appreciation of changes in the post-Cold War international security environment, but also an examination of how culturally shaped threat conceptions among American policymakers interacted with capabilities development and policy institutionalization within the U.S. military. As no current theory adequately addresses those dynamics, complimentary strategic culture and organizational theory models are presented as the framework for analysis. This thesis will contend that policy shift from NP to CP resulted from the merging of strategic cultural efforts aimed at legitimizing conceptions of proliferation threats as originating from state identity, with a military organizational drive to avoid uncertainty through the development of counterproliferation capabilities. Together these strategic cultural and organizational responses to shifting proliferation threats altered the menu of choice for policymakers by institutionalizing and legitimizing a policy response that directly challenged existing nonproliferation norms and practices. This thesis relies on a detailed case study of the evolution of counterproliferation policy from 1993 to 2002, with particular focus on the analysis of public discourse, declassified policy planning and Department of Defense documents, and participant interviews.

美國佈署飛彈防禦系統的爭議，在2001年12月，小布希決定佈署後已暫告一段落。實實上，發展飛彈防禦問題在過去半個世紀，一直是美國最受爭議的國家安全政策。這項攸關美國國安全的重要議題，在不同年代每次被提出，總是引起國際高度關注，和美國朝野兩極化反應和激烈爭辯。為了進一步了解美國飛彈防禦政策的形成過程和影響因素，筆者希望透過國際局勢演變、國家戰略思考、政府內部辯論、國會影響，以及飛彈科技發展等角度，分析後冷戰時期美國飛彈防禦政策的演進和發展。 　　冷戰時代，美蘇在各自擁有足以消滅彼此的核武彈頭數量後，雙方簽署「反彈道飛彈」（ABM）條約，以限制彼此發展飛彈防禦系統，「相互保證摧毀」（MAD）概念於是成為冷戰時期，美蘇維持戰略穩定的重要基礎。到了雷根政府時期，美國企圖發展太空飛彈防禦的「戰略防禦計畫」（SDI），以追求抵擋蘇聯核武攻擊的絕對安全，並進一步打破相互保證安全的「鐵律」。不過在科技水準不夠的情況下，使得這項計畫始終無法實現。 　　八零年代末期，隨著東歐期產政權逐一跨台，美國的宿敵蘇聯也在1991年解體，使得冷戰終於落幕。雖然後冷戰時期的美國，不再面臨成千上萬枚核彈攻擊的陰影，不過，1991年波灣戰爭時，伊拉克飛毛腿飛彈對盟軍構成的威脅，以及蘇聯解體前後，因局勢不穩，所引發的核彈處置保管和大規模毀滅性武器（WMD）擴散的問題，讓布希政府決定繼續支持發展飛彈防禦。不過，布希總統最後在國內經濟狀況不佳情況下連任失敗，使得美國發展飛彈防禦的計畫也就此受阻。 　　對於飛彈威脅的看法，布希政府和柯林頓政府之間有相當大的落差。柯林頓政府認為，美國只要發展「戰區飛彈防禦」（TMD），即能滿足國家安安全的需要。對於飛彈技術和WMD的擴散，則要靠國際間的合作以及國際機制的力量解決。不過柯林頓政府傾向理想主義處理國安事務的態度，在第二任期時，有了重大調整。在共和黨國會，以及北韓試射彈道飛彈的雙重壓力下，柯林頓政府宣布研發「全國飛彈防禦」（NMD），不過由於俄羅斯強烈反對，歐洲盟國普遍不支持，柯林頓政府終究沒有做出佈署NMD的決定。 　　小布希政府對美國國家安全的危機感，充份反映在支持佈署飛彈防禦的強烈立場。為了讓美國佈署保護全國的飛彈防禦系統，小布希政府上台後，展現勢在必得態度，對俄羅斯、以及主要盟國進行強力遊說。911恐怖攻擊的發生，雖然讓小布希政府對國家安全戰略進行調整，不過政府對飛彈防禦的重視和支持，並沒有受到影響，反而因為威脅來源的不確定而更加堅定這項計畫，並在同年宣布美國片面退出1973年和蘇聯簽署的ABM條約，解決法律上的約束，全力進行飛彈防禦系統的研發。 　　保護美國安全是每一位美國總統的首要責任。後冷戰時期的美國，雖然以全球唯一霸權姿態主導國際事務，不過911事件後，美國不顧其他主要國家反對，執意出兵伊拉克，造成無法收拾的窘境，卻也凸顯出美國國力的侷限，並不得不尋求國際社會的協助。另外，從客觀角度觀察，中共崛起造成的挑戰，以及未來可能有更多國家或非國家組織取得WMD和飛彈技術的情況下，美國為了維護在國際間的利益以及國家安全，飛彈防禦的研發、佈署已成未來政府不可逆轉的政策趨勢。

Approved for public release; distribution in unlimited. / Trying to adapt to the post-9/11 challenges to Euro-Atlantic security, the Romanian Ministry of National Defense continues its efforts to modernize and professionalize the country's armed forces in accordance with NATO standards. Part of this process is the development of a Special Forces (SF) capability that is to accomplish initial operational readiness by FY 2005. With appropriate organizational arrangements and focused combat training, the Romanian SF will increase their performance during future deployments in joint and combined settings. This project analyzes Romania's strategic documents, identifies the missions that can be conducted by the country's General-Purpose Forces or other security services, and finally proposes five appropriate tasks for the SF: Combating Terrorism, Counterproliferation of Weapons of Mass Destruction, Special Reconnaissance, Direct Action, and Security Detail for Romanian officials in crisis zones. In exploring what are the most effective structural arrangements for the Romanian Special Forces, this thesis uses a design program the recommendations of which lead to the proposal of a new organizational structure. Thus, it is determined that Romania's Special Forces elements should develop into a flexible, highly-mobile and joint organization displaying a flat hierarchy and centralized command and control. / Lieutenant, Romanian Army

Under 2014 genomförde Ryssland framför ögonen på resten av världen en annektering av Krimhalvön i Ukraina. Västvärlden var i det som närmast kan beskrivas som en chock över detta offensiva beteende. Utan någon förvarning så flyttade Ryssland med stöd av "små gröna män" fram sina positioner på Krimhalvön. En ny taktik användes och strider blandades med andra medel och metoder i det som populärt kan uttryckas som gråzonen. Denna undersökning besvarar följande problemformulering med stöd av en kvalitativ textanalys i form av en dokumentundersökning. Utifrån ett säkerhetsstrategiskt perspektiv; Hur kan problamtiken med hybrida hot i gråzonen beskrivas och hur omhändertas dessa i den nationella säkerhetsstrategin? Genom att läsa i empiri och teori om gråzon, hybrida hot och säkerhetsstrategier skapar sig författarna en modell för analys. Denna analysmodell används sedan för att analysera den (Svenska) nationella säkerhetstrategin som publicerades 2017. Analysmodellen grundar sig på de av Treverton identifierade hybrida hoten: Desinformation, cyberattacker, ekonomiska påtryckningar, irreguljära beväpnade styrkor, reguljära beväpnade styrkor.Undersökningen visar att den nationella säkerhetsstrategin, trots en bristande tydlighet inom vissa områden och en bristande balans mellan mål, metoder och medel, identifierar och ger styrningar för omhändertagandet av de identifierade hybrida hoten. Vidare visar säkerhetsstrategin på en bred förståelse och tolkning av begreppen hybrida hot och gråzonen, utan att försöka definiera dessa komplexa begrepp. Då analysmodellen appliceras, belyses en möjlig hotbild; miljöhot. Resultaten av analysen visar också att det kan vara klokt att beskriva just de samtida hoten och utnyttjande av dessa, istället för att argumentera avseende definitioner. Författarna menar att det är av större vikt att skapa en större förståelse för fenomenen, i syfte att åstadkomma en allomfattande ansats för att motverka de verkliga effekterna av hoten. / In 2014 Russia, in front of the rest of the world, claimed and performed an annexing of Crimea. The larger parts of the western world were left in shock. Without any acknowledgment Russia moved forward with “little green men” and implied a different tactic. It was not officially war and nor peace, the fighting and the action took place in what was popularly named as the gray zone. This thesis is answering the following questions by using a qualitative document examination. From a strategic security perspective: How can the problem regarding hybrid threats in the gray zone be described and how does the national Swedish strategy respond to these threats? By reading and concluding existing theory about hybrid threats within the gray zone the authors have created their own model of analysis to utilize on the Swedish National Security Strategy. The model of analysis consists of the five main hybrid threats chosen from the theory presented by Treverton: Disinformation, Cyber-attacks, Economic pressure, Irregular armed forces and Regular forces.The thesis concludes that although unclear and found lacking in coherence regarding ends, ways and means; the National Security Strategy addresses and gives guidance on how to counter the effects of the above-mentioned threats. The Security Strategy also shows a consciousness regarding the complexity of the hybrid threats and the gray zone, without trying to define the actual area or methods utilized. When looked at through the model of analysis, it also highlights a possible new threat to be considered; environmental threats. The results of the analysis also indicate that it might be wise to use the term contemporary threats and the utilization of these, instead of arguing about definitions. The authors argue that it is of greater importance to create a larger understanding of the phenomena, in order to counter the actual effects by employing a truly comprehensive approach.

美國柯林頓總統於1995、1996年所提出《擴大與交往的國家安全戰略》報告指出：「美國國家安全戰略基礎在於擴大市場、民主社群，同時嚇阻與圍堵對我們國家、盟邦與我們利益的廣泛威脅。」。為了這一廣泛目的，美國須維持一個強大的防衛力量與運用有效的外交政策，以提升合作性的安全措施；致力打開外國市場與激勵全球成長；助長海外的民主並促進區域的合作安全等。 　　小布希總統2002年《美國國家安全戰略》報告也將「透過自由市場和自由貿易開啟全球經濟發展的新時期」列為國家安全戰略的一環。2006年的「美國國家安全戰略」重申自由且公平的貿易政策是第一支柱的一部份，透過自由市場和自由貿易來啟動一個全球經濟成長的新時代是其整體戰略之一；另一方面為了終結暴政和促進有效率的民主，工具之一就是締結自由貿易協定，鼓勵各國加強法治、打擊腐敗、落實民主責任。 　　美國的東亞政策可說重回「新現實主義」與「新自由主義」的雙軌路線。東亞經貿的發展與區域經濟的整合，更是讓美國看到延長霸權經濟命脈的新金礦。未來區域內的主導地位，將會取決於中國與美國相互競爭，這個競爭也許會是良性的，各取所需、各有所獲，但是過程中將會顯示這兩個大國經濟發展將在區域內的產生權力消長。 　　美國認為，中國在地緣戰略上是具有實力引起國際權力分配產生重大轉變，因此美國政策必須調和改變去掌控中國，以便維持及促進美國重大利益。但是隨著國際局勢變化，美國對中國的態度趨於務實，摒除與中國聯盟對抗蘇聯的思維，轉為全面性交往，但是強化其與日本等國的軍事同盟關係。 　　推展民主制度雖然不一定是美國的優先要務，但只要機會，美國總是鼓勵各國走向民主，因為美國人普遍認為，民主政體有能力抵擋極權擴張、便於美國行使權利、減少軍事衝突的風險。此論點乃基於民主國家比非民主國家更不願意發動戰爭之想法。在某些菁英人士心目中，保障及推展民主乃是美國重要的道德目標。 　　美國為確保國家利益及國家安全戰略總體指導，後冷戰時期美國在東亞區域經濟、軍事、政治安全等領域維護將更為重視，並力求主導區域安全相關議題制定、運作機制和秩序規範。 / US president Clinton points out a topic “Enlargement and Engagement” in the National Security Strategy Report, it says “United States National Security Strategy is based on enlargement the market and diplomatic social groups, simultaneously deter and stop any threat that will disadvantage out nation and allied nations.” For this general purpose, United States has to sustain a strong defense power and utilize diplomatic to improve the cooperation of security measures, endeavor in open foreign market, incentive global economic growth, diplomatic nations growth, and area security cooperation, etc. 　　President George Bush also point out “use free market and free trading to open the new growth of global economic era” from the National Security Strategy Report in 2002. It restated free and fair trading policy plays a big portion in 2006. Through free market and free trading to initiate a new era of global economic growth is part of the plan. The tool of terminating tyranny and effective the diplomatic is making a trade policy to encourage other nations stop crime and corruption. Play the role of democracy country. 　　United States Eastern Asia policy is back to theory of “neo-realism” and “neo-liberalism” two axis. The development of Eastern Asia Trade and Integration of Area Economic are the new vault for United States to prolong his sovereign rule in economic. The future leading nation of the area depends on China and United States competition. It maybe positive, each gains his own benefits, but the process will show the grow or diminish of these two nations economic growth within the area. 　　United States think that China’s regional strategy is very powerful which makes the change of international power distribution, so that U.S. has to adjust the policy to facilitate the U.S. key interests. But, along the change of international situation, the U.S. attitude with China turns out to be more practical. It changes the idea of allied with China against Soviet to fully engage with China in all perspectives. In addition, it strengths the military allied relationship with Japan and eastern Asia countries. 　　To popularize the democracy is not the first priority of United States. If there is a chance, U.S. will always encourage all countries toward democracy. American think that democratic system can stop the extremity system expand, which ease U.S. use his privilege and reduce military conflict risk. This is based on democratic nation is more unwilling to start a war than any other nations. In certain elites’ mind, that the goal of U.S. ethics is to ensure and improve democratic. 　　After cold war era based on U.S. interest, United States is more emphasize on the Eastern Asia’s economic, military, and political security, and endeavor on leading the area security.