Abductive reasoning is the process of finding the best explanation for a set of observations. The theory of abductive reasoning (TAR, Johnson & Krems, 2001) allows detailed process assumptions that were only partly tested in detail up until now. This thesis employs an artificial abductive reasoning task, the Black Box task, and eye tracking measures in order to gain insight into the process. The first part of this thesis aims at evaluating process measures based on eye tracking and using them in order to gain a better understanding of the processes postulated in TAR such as the construction of a situation model or retrieval of relevant information. The second part investigates the relationship between working memory and abductive reasoning by manipulating the amount of information stored in memory and examining the relationship between visual abductive reasoning and working memory skills. In a last part a perspective to the transferability of our results to everyday life tasks is given. The first study focuses on differentiating between processes that take place during the encoding and the evaluation of observation information by comparing eye movement measures. In the second study, we tested process assumptions such as the construction of a mental representation from TAR using memory indexing, an eye tracking method that makes it possible to trace the retrieval of explanations currently held in working memory. Gaze analysis revealed that participants encode the presented evidence (i.e., observations) together with possible explanations into memory. When new observations are presented, the previously presented evidence and explanations are retrieved. With the memory indexing method, we were able to assess the process of information retrieval in abductive reasoning, which was previously believed to be unobservable. The theory of abductive reasoning (TAR; Johnson & Krems, 2001) assumes that when information is presented sequentially, new information is integrated into a mental representation called a situation model, the central data structure on which all reasoning processes are based. Since working memory capacity is limited, the question arises how reasoning might change with the amount of information that has to be processed in memory. To answer this question, we conducted a third experimental study, in which we manipulated whether previous observation information and previously found explanations had to be retrieved from memory or were still present in the visual array. We analyzed individual ratings of difficulty as well as behavioral data and reasoning outcomes. Our results provide evidence that people experience differences in task difficulty when more information has to be retrieved from memory. This is also evident in changes in the mental representation as reflected by eye tracking measures. However, these differences are not evident in the reasoning outcome. These findings suggest that individuals construct their situation model from both information in memory as well as external memory stores. The complexity of the model depends on the task at hand: when memory demands are high, only relevant information is included. With this compensation strategy, people are able to achieve similar reasoning outcomes even when faced with more difficult tasks. The precise relationship between reasoning and working memory capacity remains largely opaque. Combining data of both studies from chapter 3 and 4, we firstly investigated if reasoning performance differs due to differences in working memory capacity. Secondly, using eye tracking, we explored the relationship between the facets of working memory and the process of visuospatial reasoning. Therefore both, a test for storage and processing, and content components (verbal-numerical/ spatial) of working memory as well as an intelligence measure, were engaged. Results show a clear relationship between reasoning accuracy, spatial storage and processing components as well as intelligence. Process measures suggest that high spatial working memory ability might lead to the use of strategies optimizing the content and complexity of the mental representation on which abductive reasoning is based. In a fifth study, we aimed to investigate whether there are also indicators for the mechanisms postulated by TAR in a task that is closer to real life reasoning. Therefore, we asked participants to solve 12 jigsaw puzzles whereby the abductive task was the identification of the motive presented on the puzzles. Thereby, the pieces of the puzzles posed as observation and hypotheses to the motive of the puzzle as explanations. As a process tracing measure, we used thinking aloud. Verbal protocols were recorded, transcripted and carefully coded according to the operators and explanation types postulated in TAR. We found evidence that participants use most of the operators with a likeliness that significantly lies above chance level. We also found evidence of the existence of the different explanation types. Eye movements were able to give insight in the interrelations between working memory, attention, and action. Therefore, this work contributes to understanding abductive reasoning, not only by testing the assumptions of TAR, but also by finding relations between memory, action and thought. The results do not only account for abductive reasoning in an artificial task but also in everyday life reasoning.:1 Introduction 1 1.1 Theories on Abductive Reasoning and Beyond 4 1.1.1 Theory of Abductive Reasoning 4 1.1.2 Other Theories 7 1.2 Reasoning, Working Memory, and Mental Representation 9 1.3 Process Tracing 11 1.4 An Artificial Abductive Task: The Black Box 12 1.5 Overview and Research Objectives 15 1.5.1 Differentiating between Encoding and Processing 15 1.5.2 Current Explanations in Memory 16 1.5.3 Information Stored in Memory 16 1.5.4 More than Storage of Information 17 1.5.5 In the Context of Everyday Life 18 1.5.6 Summary, Perspectives, and Conclusion 18 2 The Possibilities of Eye Tracking: Differentiating between Encoding and Processing 21 2.1 Abstract 22 2.2 Introduction 23 2.3 Method 26 2.3.1 Participants 26 2.3.2 Task and Apparatus 27 2.3.3 Procedure 28 2.3.4 Analysis 29 2.4 Results 30 2.5 Discussion 32 3 Tracing Current Explanations in Memory: A Process Analysis Based on Eye Tracking 37 3.1 Abstract 38 3.2 Introduction 39 3.2.1 Current Explanations of Abductive Reasoning 41 3.2.2 Tracing the Reasoning Process 44 3.2.3 Present Study 45 3.3 Method 48 3.3.1 Participants 49 3.3.2 Apparatus 49 3.3.3 Material 50 3.3.4 Procedure 53 3.4 Results 54 3.4.1 Performance 54 3.4.2 Gaze Analyses 55 3.4.3 Hypothesis 1: Information Stored in the Situation Model 57 3.4.4 Hypothesis 2: Different Types of Explanations—Concrete vs. Abstract 61 3.5 Discussion 67 3.5.1 Information Stored in the Situation Model 68 3.5.2 Concretely and Abstractly Explained Observations 68 3.5.3 TAR and Current Theories on Abductive Reasoning 70 3.5.4 Tracing Memory Processes 72 3.5.5 Conclusion 74 Appendix 3.1 75 Appendix 3.2 76 Appendix 3.3 77 Appendix 3.4 78 4 Information Stored in Memory Affects Abductive Reasoning 79 4.1 Abstract 80 4.2 Introduction 81 4.2.1 The Reasoning Process 82 4.2.2 Visual Attention 85 4.2.3 Research Objectives 86 4.2.4 This Study 87 4.2.5 Using Eye Movements as a Method to Assess Memory Retrieval 89 4.2.6 Hypotheses 89 4.3 Method 92 4.3.1 Participants 92 4.3.2 Apparatus 92 4.3.3 The Black Box Task 92 4.3.4 Procedure 95 4.3.5 Pairwise Comparisons 96 4.4 Results 96 4.4.1 Performance 96 4.4.2 Gaze Analysis 99 4.4.3 Hypothesis 1: Differences Experienced in Task Difficulty 101 4.4.4 Hypothesis 2: Elements of the Situation Model 102 4.4.5 Hypothesis 3: Integrative Solutions 105 4.5 Discussion 107 4.5.1 Differences Experienced in Task Difficulty 108 4.5.2 Elements of the Situation Model 108 4.5.3 Integrative Solutions 110 4.5.4 Summary 112 5 More than Storage of Information – What Working Memory Contributes to Visual Abductive Reasoning 113 5.1 Abstract 114 5.2 Introduction 115 5.2.1 Working memory 116 5.2.2 Relations between Abductive Reasoning Working Memory Capacity 118 5.2.3 Eye Movements as a Process Tracing Method 119 5.2.4 Abductive Reasoning Outcomes and Working Memory Ability. 120 5.2.5 Abductive Reasoning Processes and Working Memory Ability 121 5.3 Method 123 5.3.1 Participants 124 5.3.2 Apparatus 124 5.3.3 Material 125 5.3.4 Procedure 127 5.4 Results 128 5.4.1 Analysis 128 5.4.2 Abductive Reasoning Accuracy and Working Memory Ability 131 5.4.3 Abductive Reasoning Processes and Working Memory Ability 132 5.5 Discussion 135 5.5.1 The Interaction of Reasoning Accuracy and Memory Ability 135 5.5.2 The Interaction of the Process of Reasoning and Memory Ability 136 5.5.3 Conclusion 138 6 The Theory of Abductive Reasoning in the Context of Everyday Life 141 6.1 Abstract 142 6.2 Introduction 143 6.2.1 Abduction in “Real Life” 145 6.3 Method 146 6.3.1 Participants 146 6.3.2 Task 147 6.3.3 Material 148 6.3.4 Apparatus 148 6.3.5 Procedure 149 6.3.6 Coding system 150 6.4 Results 153 6.4.1 Analysis 153 6.4.2 Descriptive Data 153 6.3.3. Likeliness of Operator Use 155 6.5 Discussion 156 6.5.1 Operator Use 156 6.5.2 Explanation Types 157 6.5.3 Perspectives 158 7 Summary, Perspectives, and Conclusion 159 7.1 The Process of Abductive Reasoning 159 7.2 Contributions of other Theories 162 7.3 Eye Tracking and its Methodological Implications 164 7.4 Future Research and Applications 167 7.5 Conclusion 169 8 References 171 Curriculum Vitae 191 Publications 196

This dissertation examines the impact of trauma on information-seeking behaviors and decision-making processes. Essay 1 includes a qualitative analysis of the transcripts obtained from interviews with four military service members diagnosed with PTSD. The results showed that 75% of this small sample population exhibited addictive behavior that was presented in their information behaviors. All four members indicated that the excessive extent to which they seek information is related to the perceived importance of the information and their level of trust in the sources. Low trust in information sources increases the number of sources searched for validation in this population. Essay 2 involved the collection and analysis of survey data. The results of the stepwise backward regression show that two trauma variables (adult sexual assault, sudden fear) have a significant combined negative effect on decision-making in this population. The analysis and results of a different survey are presented in Essay 3. The stepwise logistic regression analysis results conducted on the summated scales developed showed a strong positive link between trust in scientific experts for scientific information and the dichotomous dependent variable trust in social media for news. The research conducted in this dissertation extends the understanding of how trauma affects people's information-seeking habits and decision-making processes. The findings have implications for how to communicate, policies relevant to information dissemination, and mental health measures. Future research is suggested to understand these behaviors and potential treatments better.

The aim of this study is to explore heritage processes within contemporary urban planning in Sweden, which is done through a single-case study. The point of departure for the study is the management of Havrekvarnen, an early modernist industrial building within an urban development area of Nacka, Sweden. Through parallel decisions by the County Administrative Board and the local Municipality in 2016, the building was firstly, listed with the strongest legal, cultural, and historical protection available, and secondly, the municipal urban regulations were changed so that the landowner was given permission to pursuit a reconstruction of the building, replicating its original appearance. As such the case constitutes a hitherto unique example of a listed future reconstruction in Sweden. The study examines how the process took place, focusing on actors and critical junctures involved in the execution and how the description of the building's heritage-values changed. The study uses a composite theoretical framework of authorized heritage discourse and actor network theory. To this an explaining-outcome process tracing is applied as method. Through a sequential process of collecting empirical data, in the form of archival records and interviews, the process was mapped through the conceptualization of a causal mechanism. The method had not previously been used in the field of art history and was chosen as such with a tentative approach. The study gives an extensive presentation of the legal and practical framework surrounding heritage processes within urban planning in Sweden, as well as puts the study within a local historical context. The results of the study show that within the observed case, a trade-off situation between authenticity and aesthetic historical values arose, caused by the poor technical condition of the building: the aesthetic values were deemed to take precedence in the assessment. The study also shows how antiquarian consultants have had a decisive influence on the process of legislative enabling of the reconstruction of Havrekvarnen. The research design’s use of process tracing to map heritage processes is thus deemed useful for future enquiries within the field of art history and heritage studies.

At some point during a creative action something clicks, suddenly the prospective problem solver just knows the solution to a problem, and a feeling of joy and relief arises. This phenomenon, called Eureka experience, insight, Aha moment, hunch, epiphany, illumination, or serendipity, has been part of human narrations for thousands of years. It is the moment of a subjective experience, a surprising, and sometimes a life-changing event. In this thesis, I narrow down this moment 1. conceptually, 2. experientially, and 3. temporally. The concept of emerging solutions has a multidisciplinary background in Cognitive Science, Arts, Design, and Engineering. Through the discussion of previous terminology and comparative reviews of historical literature, I identify sources of ambiguity surrounding this phenomenon and suggest unifying terms as the basis for interdisciplinary exploration. Tracking the experience based on qualitative data from 11 creative practitioners, I identify conflicting aspects of existing models of creative production. To bridge this theoretical and disciplinary divide between iterative design thinking and sequential models of creativity, I suggest a novel multi-layered model. Empirical support for this proposal comes from Dira, a computer-based open-ended experimental paradigm. As part of this thesis I developed the task and 40 unique sets of stimuli and response items to collect dynamic measures of the creative process and evade known problems of insightful tasks. Using Dira, I identify the moment when solutions emerge from the number and duration of mouse-interactions with the on-screen elements and the 124 participants' self-reports. I provide an argument for the multi-layered model to explain a discrepancy between the timing observed in Dira and existing sequential models. Furthermore, I suggest that Eureka moments can be assessed on more than a dichotomous scale, as the empirical data from interviews and Dira demonstrates for this rich human experience. I conclude that the research on insight benefits from an interdisciplinary approach and suggest Dira as an instrument for future studies.

Decision making for fast-moving consumer goods involves a choice between numerous similar alternatives. Under such demanding circumstances, a decision is made for one product. The decision is dependent on the interaction between the environment and the mind of the consumer, both of which are filled with information that can influence the outcome. The aim of this dissertation is to explore how the mind and the environment guides attention towards considered and chosen products in consumer decision making at the point-of-purchase. Consumers are equipped with several effort reduction strategies to simplify complex decision making. The selection of strategies can be conscious or automatic and driven by information in the environment or the mind of the decision maker. The selected decision strategy reduces the set of options to one alternative in an iterative process of comparisons that are fast and rely on perceptual cues to quickly exclude irrelevant products. This thesis uses eye-tracking to explore this rapid processing that lacks conscious access or control. The purpose is to explore how product packaging and placement (as in-store factors), and recognition, preferences, and choice task (as out-of-store factors) influence the decision-making process through visual attention. The results of the 10 experiments in the five papers that comprise this thesis shed new light on the role of visual attention in the interaction between the environment and the mind, and its influence on the consumer. It is said that consumers choose with their eyes, which means that unseen is unsold. The results of this thesis show that it is just as important to be comprehended as it is to be seen. In split-second decision making, the ability to recognize and comprehend a product can significantly impact preferences. Comprehension stretches beyond perception as consumers infer value from memory structures that influence attention. Hence, the eye truly sees what the mind is prepared to comprehend.

跨國公司與開發中國家官員之賄賂關係被稱為骯髒聯盟。非國家行為者是形塑與改變國際規範之重要參與者，本研究檢視重點在於國際透明組織為切斷骯髒聯盟之供需關係，如何運用其獨特之跨國倡議網絡模式，透過建立聯盟(coalition-building)途徑，促成國際公約並且改變簽署國之國家行為。該非政府組織影響國際關係之具體成果為1997年簽署之OECD反賄公約，該公約是第一個從供應方(supply-side)切斷跨國商業賄賂鏈之國際規範，其立法歷程與會員國之國家偏好改變足以證明國際透明組織之影響力。 主流學派之結構現實主義者主張國際關係是結構決定論，以強權國家為主要的、具決定性之行為者，國家偏好是外生給定的利益排序。本研究主張以建構主義為基礎之全球反貪運動則是反其道而行，國際透明組織建構之跨國倡議網絡，擅用人氣政治與切身性政治，以合作取代對抗，有效促成已開發國家採取集體行動，簽署OECD反賄公約。當強權之間拒絕改變現狀時，非國家行為者之理念說服行動可以逐一改變國家偏好，進而改變國際規範。在倡議國際反貪議題上，國際透明組織的確是國際新規範之催生者。 本文採案例研究，主體為國際透明組織，客體為OECD反賄公約，交叉運用深度訪談與調查式過程追蹤研究，密集而深入取得相關當事人提供之第一手資料，彌補既有文獻靜態分析之不足。 / Non-state actors are essential participants in shaping and changing international norms. There has been a long-standing practice of a tacit “dirty alliance” between multinational corporations and developing countries officials. This research focuses on Transparency International(TI), which seeks to sever the supply and demand chain relationships of the dirty alliance by mobilizing a unique model of transnational advocacy network (TAN), engaging coalition-building, lobbying for a new set of international norms and persuading the changes of signatory states’ behavior. The fruits are the adoption of the 1997 OECD Anti-Bribery Convention, which is the first supply-side norm to cut off transnational business bribery chain. Both the key events of the legislative process and the changes of state preferences among the signatories validify the argument for the TI’s significant influence. Contrary to mainstream international relations theories such as structural realism claiming structural determinism, predominant role of powerful states, and exogenously given nature of state preferences, this research proves constructivism prevails. TI’s TAN model artistically exercises popularity politics as well as proximity politics, advocates cooperation instead of confrontation against bribe-givers and bribe-takers, and effectively persuades developed countries to take collective actions by adopting and ratifying the OECD Anti-Bribery Convention. While powerful states resist changing the status quo, non-state actors indeed demonstrate their capability of persuading states to change their preferences. TI is entitled to be the midwife in formulating new international norms against transnational corruption. This research applies case study methodology, making TI as the subject and the OECD Anti-Bribery Convention as the object. Diligent analysis and interpretations are based on the cross-references of in-depth interviews and investigative process-tracing method to extract the primary data from relevant parties so as to supplement the deficiencies of the available literatures.

Sweden is the only state in the Baltic Sea region currently not under NATO protection, which puts the state in a particularly vulnerable position. On 18 May 2022, Sweden officially deemed NATO alignment a more effective option of security strategy in projecting deterrence and dealing with the security challenges the state is facing, compared to a strategy of non-alignment which has been Sweden’s security posture for over 200 years. The aim of the thesis is to explain this shift in Sweden’s security policy.  The thesis will explain small states’ security policy beyond the traditional explanations found in realist theory of state-centric threat balancing and sovereignty. Shelter theory claims that small states’ options for security is either to find a protecting power or join an alliance in order to be politically and militarily sustainable. The thesis will analyse Sweden’s shift in security policy by examining shelter theory’s claim that in order for small states to survive and prosper, buffering up domestic capabilities does not suffice, they need to seek political and military shelter from external security providers by implementing bi- or multilateral agreements with neighbouring states, great powers and by joining alliances.  Analysing a long-time deviant case of a non-aligned small state, this thesis argues that Sweden’s drawn-out road-map to NATO membership is problematic to explain from the perspective of shelter theory. Consequently, the thesis makes the additional claim that factors related to Sweden’s domestic policy, such as public opinion and the nearly institutionalised practice of broad political consensus in issues relating to security policy, also play an important role for the design of Sweden’s security policy. Shelter theory in combination with domestic factors’ influence on security policy change offer a more fully fledged explanation of Sweden's shift in security policy to NATO alignment. This thesis argues that its findings complement and enhance shelter theory by shedding light on the importance of domestic factors in the study of small states’ security policy.

Global awareness of governments’ abuse of the Constitutional State of Emergency “CSoE” took place after the COVID-19 pandemic, although it is not a new phenomenon and is widely used, especially by hybrid autocratic regimes. However, few studies have studied its impact on social movements’ Political Collective Action “PCA” and were limited to the analysis of single deviant cases. In order to fill the gap, the research is aimed to investigate how, if at all, social movements in hybrid regimes overcome the PCA challenges under the CSoE? As a corollary, the study will examine the four PCA challenges -organization, interest, demands, and mobilization- in the context of Egypt, with emphasis on the “legal” procedures deployed by hybrid regimes via the highlight of social movement repression.The findings of the comparison conducted is consistent with the proposed causal mechanism, as it implies that when social movement overcome PCA challenges, their level of threat increases, placing a significant cost on the government, which increases the likelihood of the repression.

This study explores the foundations of US counterinsurgency policy and doctrine in order to better understand the main historical influences on that policy and doctrine and how those influences have informed the current US approach to counterinsurgency. The results of this study indicate the US experience in counterinsurgency during the Greek Civil War and the Huk Rebellion in the Philippines had a significant influence on the development of US counterinsurgency policy and doctrine following World War II through the Kennedy presidency. In addition, despite a major diversion from the lessons of Greece and the Philippines during the Vietnam War, the lessons were re-institutionalized in US counterinsurgency policy and doctrine following the war and continue to have significant influence today, though in a highly sanitized and, therefore, misleading form. As a result, a major disconnect has developed between the “rhetoric and reality” of US counterinsurgency policy. This disconnect has resulted from the fact that many references that provide a more complete and accurate picture of the actual policies and actions taken to successfully defeat the insurgencies have remained out of the reach of non-government researchers and the general public. Accordingly, many subsequent studies of counterinsurgency overlook, or only provide a cursory treatment of, aspects that may have had a critical impact on the success of past US counterinsurgency operations. One such aspect is the role of US direct intervention in the internal affairs of a supported country. Another is the role of covert action operations in support of counterinsurgency operations. As a result, the counterinsurgency policies and doctrines that have been developed over the years are largely based on false assumptions, a flawed understanding of the facts, and a misunderstanding of the contexts concerning the cases because of misleading, or at least seriously incomplete, portrayals of the counterinsurgency operations.

Ethnic contentions would barely arise at the drop of a hat. To understand the roots of the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict, known as one of the most intractable ethnopolitical conflicts in the South Caucasus region, it is crucial to trace back to the Karabakh movement, a civic uprising that mobilized ethnic Armenians around a struggle for independence. What advantages would self-determination allow, that would not be achievable elsewise? To address this puzzle, I conducted a qualitative single-case study, designed as a deductive process-tracing, aimed at answering the research question why does political mass mobilization emerge (when it can possibly not)? Building upon relevant literature suggesting that horizontal inequalities lead to civil war, this research tests the following hypothesis: Perceived horizontal inequalities between coexisting ethnic groups are what underlie the emergence and evolvement of political mass mobilization. The comparative analysis of 11 in-depth interviews with Karabakh movement participants from Stepanakert and Yerevan, combined with an extensive investigation of over 120 secondary materials, suggests that, as was observed in the case explored, relative deprivation fed by experienced horizontal inequalities is what underlies the emergence of mass political movements, demonstrating strong explanatory potential within the theory on horizontal inequality.