Etude historique des conditions d’émergence du champ de recherches de la perception des risques ; analyse critique du paradigme psychométrique et de la théorie culturaliste, ainsi que des conceptions du risque qui les sous-tend. / Historical study of the emergence conditions of risk perception as a research field; critical analysis of the psychometric paradigm and cultural theory, as well as of the underlying risk conceptions.

本研究以博士倫2006與2007年發生的兩次藥水回收事件為例，以五國的媒體抽樣報導為研究對象，結合深度訪談法，歸納分析媒體報導中呈現之五國博士倫公司風險認知、五國關鍵關係人之風險認知，並比較上述兩者間之差異。其後，以雙方之風險認知、證據真實性和媒體環境做為前置變項，對博士倫危機溝通策略運用之影響，進行理論的回應與探討，並以股價、媒體正負面報導等指標檢視該公司於兩事件中的危機溝通成效。最後，就研究發現，提出對實務面與未來研究方向之建議，期盼能予後續研究者進行跨國企業危機溝通策略時之參考。 一、 風險認知對於危機溝通策略的影響 本研究發現，五國關鍵關係人之風險認知、組織本身之風險認知及兩者之差異，對於博士倫之危機溝通策略運用並無影響。除了新加坡關鍵關係人的風險認知為「監管單位發佈資訊」之外，香港、中國大陸、台灣及美國關係人之風險認知，前兩名均為「風險是否涉及毒害」或「企業的形象與信譽」，縱使四國關係人與博士倫重視的屬性有先後階段的不同，然而並不影響博士倫之危機溝通策略運用。MoistureLoc事件中，五國最重要的關鍵關係人皆為「政府監管單位」。 二、 證據真實性、媒體環境對於危機溝通策略的影響 本研究發現，博士倫五國之溝通策略演變，皆以美國總公司為中心，由「否認」策略移至「辨明」策略，再趨向「讓步」策略，並有同一時期呈現言語與行為策略「不一致」之情形。策略的主要依據為「證據的真實性」，包括美國官方機構所公佈的病例數據或是博士倫自行調查的結果。此外，綜合內容分析與訪談結果，本研究認為媒體環境對於企業的危機溝通策略會造成影響，而影響的程度以新加坡、香港與台灣較美國與中國大陸明顯。 三、 兩次事件危機溝通策略之比較 綜合本研究結果，美國博士倫於MultiPlus事件的處理策略，具有前一次MoistureLoc事件所沒有的特點，包括：1. 在最短時間內掌握危機狀況，積極反應；2. 迅速公佈處理情形；3. 發言人取得媒體信賴；4. 危機時間短，媒體報導篇幅少；5. 取得議題建構主動權。故博士倫於MultiPlus事件中，聲譽面及財務面皆未受影響，與前次事件相較，已然從危機中汲取經驗，可謂正面的危機學習。 關鍵詞：關鍵關係人、風險認知、危機溝通策略、證據真實性、媒體報導

社會工作者處於人身安全高度危險的工作環境中，國內相關的研究卻不豐富。本研究以處在高風險工作環境中的社會工作者為對象，瞭解他們目前遭受案主暴力對待的現況、回應方式，及對暴力風險的知覺情形。研究以郵寄問卷方式進行，資料蒐集範圍包括臺北市家庭暴力暨性侵害防治中心、各區社會福利服務中心、區域級以上醫療及精神醫療院所，發出231份問卷，回收有效問卷共計165份，回收率為71.43％。 首先，研究發現81.8％的社會工作者生涯中曾遭受某種形式的暴力攻擊，其中心理傷害80.6％、身體傷害16.4％、財產損害26.1％，經常發生的地點在「辦公處所」。研究尚發現44％的社工員經驗到多種形式的暴力，更有72％經驗到一次以上，顯見案主的暴力威脅並非偶發事件，高風險領域社會工作者確實面臨案主暴力威脅；邏輯迴歸分析發現，機構年資不長、工作經驗較短者面對暴力的可能性較高。其次，平均而言工作者身體風險知覺較心理及財務風險知覺為高，進一步以迴歸分析發現，尚未取得證照、保護性服務工作者、機構年資低、工作經驗較短者其風險意識較高。第三，受暴經驗與風險知覺有關，過去曾有受暴經驗的社工員整體風險知覺較高。最後，有關正式通報的情形，百分之五十七點四的受訪者表示遭遇心理傷害時會通報、受身體傷害和財務損害者則有近八成會通報，受到「形而外且具體」傷害時呈報上級的情形則更為普遍。 研究建議如下：實務上，機構應有清楚的政策及通報流程以增加暴力事件的可見度、提供員工情緒支持及教育訓練以提昇工作者風險意識及減緩工作恐懼感；工作者本身應改變信念並增加實務工作知能，避免將暴力事件地下化、私有化，及強化與案主工作時的應對技巧。另外，在教育養成上應有更多人身安全的訓練與關注，以避免社會工作學生因過度擔心阻礙其投入職場的信心。最後，政府政策應針對第一線人身安全高風險的社工員給予實質性保障、儘速將人身安全納入社工師法或專門立法，強調暴力「零容忍」的相關政策，以維護社工人員的尊嚴與生命安全。 / Although social workers are at risk of client violence in the workplace, little research on the situation has been done in Taiwan. The present study surveyed 165 social workers practicing in high risk fields in Taipei in terms of their experiences, reaction, and perception of client violence. The following are the findings. First, a prevalence rate of client violence (81.8％) was found. About eighty percent of social workers had experienced some type of psychological assault by clients during their work. Physical attack was reported by 27 workers (16.4％). Property damage was reported by 43 workers (26.1％). In multiple logistic regression, psychological assault was associated with two variables—less seniority and less social work experience. Second, on the average, scores of physical risk perception was much higher than the other two perceptions. Multiple regression showed that workers who were less senior, worked at protection service, with less social work experience, or without license, had higher scores of risk perception. Third, a significant positive correlation existed between client violence and risk perception. Finally, results indicated that only 57.4％ of the subjects who suffered psychological assault had decided to report their experience formally. On the contrary, nearly eighty percent would report when they encountered physical attack or property damage – especially external and concrete harm. Implications for practice, training and policy were discussed.

L‟utilité de la théorie de la dissuasion est régulièrement remise en question pour expliquer la relation entre les peines et la criminalité puisque les propriétés objectives de la peine ne semblent pas affecter les taux de criminalité, les perceptions que s‟en font les individus et la récidive des délinquants. Trois limites conceptuelles des auteurs qui remettent en question la dissuasion sont soulevées. Premièrement, les unités spatiales utilisées sont des territoires sur lesquels plusieurs corps policiers sont en fonction. Il y a donc peu de chances que tous les citoyens présents soient exposés au même message pénal. Deuxièmement, les chercheurs ont mesuré le risque objectif d‟être arrêté à l‟aide d‟un ratio entre le nombre d‟arrestations et le nombre de crimes rapportés. Cette conceptualisation est problématique puisque les résultats d‟autres études suggèrent que les citoyens ont peu de connaissances des propriétés objectives et qu‟il serait, ainsi, intéressant de se référer aux stimuli dissuasifs pour conceptualiser la notion de risques. Troisièmement, pour plusieurs chercheurs, la délinquance est considérée comme une activité pour laquelle les délits impunis découlent du hasard. Pourtant, les délinquants utilisent fréquemment des stratégies pour éviter les autorités policières. Ils sont donc proactifs dans leur impunité. De ces limites découlent quatre propositions : 1) afin de détecter les réels effets des propriétés de la peine sur la criminalité, les territoires utilisés dans les études doivent représenter des juridictions sur lesquelles un seul corps policier opère; 2) afin de détecter les réels effets des propriétés de la peine sur la criminalité, les études doivent être effectuées avec des données provenant d‟une juridiction dans laquelle les activités de répression sont augmentées significativement par rapport à leur seuil antérieur et maintenue sur une période de temps suffisamment longue; 3) les stimuli dissuasifs observés doivent être considérés comme des expériences vicariantes ; 4) l‟impunité doit être définie comme étant une expérience recherchée par les délinquants. Deux études ont été réalisées dans le cadre de cette thèse. D‟abord, une étude a été réalisée à l‟aide de données issues des rapports policiers de collisions et des constats d‟infraction rendus. Les résultats montrent que l‟augmentation de la répression policière ii sur le territoire du Service de Police de la Ville de Montréal a fait diminuer le nombre de collisions. Au même moment, les collisions sont demeurées stables sur le territoire desservis par le Service de police de la Ville de Québec. Dans un deuxième temps, une étude perceptuelle a été réalisée avec un échantillon d‟étudiants universitaires. Les résultats démontrent des effets mitigés des stimuli dissuasifs sur les perceptions que se font les individus de leurs risques d‟être arrêté et sur leurs comportements délinquants. Chez les moins délinquants, les stimuli dissuasifs font augmenter la perception que les délinquants se font de leurs risques. Par contre, les plus motivés à commettre des délits de la route développent des stratégies en réaction aux opérations policières plutôt que d‟en craindre les représailles. Ces tactiques d‟évitement n‟assurent pas une impunité totale, ni une perception moins élevée des risques de recevoir une contravention, mais elles retardent le moment où le délinquant sera confronté à la punition. / Deterrence theory has been rightfully challenged when changes in punishment probability or severity had no impact on crime rates, recidivism or risks' perception. We suggest that these unconclusive results are, in large part, caused by theoretical and conceptual flaws. First, changes in objective properties of punishment are assumed to be equally perceived across multiple spatial units or police jurisdictions. We have reason to believe that this is rarely the case. Second, the objective risks of being arrested are generally measured with a ratio between the number of arrests and the number of crimes reported. This conceptualization is problematic because numerous researchers found that people have little knowledge of these objective properties. Third, deterrence research have limited interest for adaptative strategies used by offenders to counteract the perceived increase in punishment severity or certainty. We believe that offenders' actively seek and adopt these avoidance tactics. Four propositions are developed to adress thoses limits: 1) to detect the potential local or micro effects of punishment on crime, different police jurisdictions are analysed separatly; 2) to detect the potential effects of punishment on crime, studies should be made only in jurisdictions where enforcement levels are objectively increasing; 3) observed deterrent stimuli should be regarded as vicarious experiences; 4) impunity must be viewed as an actively seeked experience. Two studies were conducted as part of this thesis. Using reports of crashes and statements of offense reports from the Montreal police traffic unit, the first study found that a sharp increase in the level of police activities had significant impact on the number of collisions. Over the same period, data from the second largest city in the province of Québec (the control area), showed no noticeable increase in punishment probility and consequently, no significant impact on collisions. The second study was based on the perception of risks and patterns of road delinquency for a sample of university students with a driver license. Results show distinctive effects of deterrence stimuli for drivers with different delinquency habits. For conformists drivers, the iv deterrent stimuli increase the perception of risk but had no impact on their (already low) levels of road delinquency. For the most motivated traffic offenders however, deterrence stimuli seem to motivate the use and diversity of arrest avoidance techniques that circumvent any increase in their perception of risks. These avoidance tactics do not provide total impunity but efficiently decrease punishment probabilities for those willing to maintain the same offending patterns.

No description available.

A presente pesquisa propôs o desenvolvimento e a aplicação de um web-GIS interativo alimentado por usuários visando ao mapeamento do risco de inundações por meio da coleta de dados de ameaça, exposição e vulnerabilidade percebidos pela população. Foi também estimado o risco de inundação a partir de uma expressão de indicadores propostos por Mendiondo (2008). As duas metodologias foram aplicadas em sub-bacias urbanas da cidade de São Carlos. Foram realizadas entrevistas com a população da cidade para coletar dados de percepção de risco, enquanto se desenvolvia o web-GIS, para o qual, uma vez terminado, foram transferidos os referidos dados online. O portal se mostrou uma ferramenta de uso simples e confiável. As estimativas de risco calculadas por meio da expressão citada levaram a concluir que as sub-bacias com maior risco de inundação são as dos córregos Tijuco Preto e Medeiros. Entretanto, o risco estimado a partir da análise de percepção evidenciou as sub-bacias Gregório e Santa Maria Madalena como as de maior risco de inundação. As duas ferramentas apresentaram-se valiosas e econômicas para estimativa de risco de inundação em ambiente urbano, podendo constituir ótimos sistemas de apoio à decisão. O webGIS, em particular, é potencialmente útil para informar aos moradores sobre quais são as áreas de risco de inundação na cidade. / This dissertation presents the development and application of an interactive web-GIS in which internet users map flood risk collaboratively by filling up a geotagged form with questions on flood hazard, exposure and vulnerability. Flood risk was also assessed through the use of a set of environmental risk indicators proposed by Mendiondo (2008). The two methodologies were applied to six urban watersheds of the city of São Carlos (State of São Paulo, Brazil). Interviews including questions asked on the web-GIS were carried out in city streets while the portal was being developed. Thus perceived risk data gathered from the interviews was later transferred online onto the web-GIS. The web-GIS proved to be an easy to use and intuitive tool. According to the results of risk calculation obtained with the indicators expression the watersheds with higher flood risk were the Tijuco Preto and Medeiros, which were also the ones with smallest area and higher population density. The results of perceived risk, which was assessed through the analysis of the interviews data, gave evidence that Gregorio and Santa Maria Madalena where the watersheds at higher risk. These watersheds are the two which experience a higher rate of occurrence on a year basis. The two approaches for assessing risk proved to be consistent and relatively inexpensive for the estimate of flood risk in urban areas, with the potential of representing valid decision support systems. The webGIS is a particularly interesting solution as a medium of information to inhabitants on the level of risk to which they are exposed.

Les désastres naturels ont des conséquences particulièrement dévastatrices dans les pays en développement où les individus sont hautement vulnérables et les institutions inefficaces. Néanmoins, leurs impacts sur le bien être des ménages et le rôle des autorités publiques restent encore mal compris. En outre, alors que la plupart des études se focalisent sur le risque climatique, les désastres géologiques, et les éruptions volcaniques en particulier, restent peu étudiés. Pourtant, même si elles représentent une fraction marginale des désastres naturels au niveau mondial, les éruptions volcaniques sont une menace majeure dans certains pays tels que l’Indonésie ou l’Equateur. La présente thèse tente donc de contribuer à la littérature à travers trois essais empiriques traitant de l’effet à long terme du risque volcanique sur l’accumulation de capital des ménages, de l’impact d’une éruption sur le capital social ainsi que du rôle des autorités publiques dans les décisions de migration. / Natural disasters have particularly devastating consequences in developing countries where people are highly vulnerable and institutions remain inefficient. Nevertheless, their impacts on households’ well-being and the role of public authorities are, yet, not fully understood. In addition, while most studies focus on climatic risk, geological disasters, and volcanic eruptions in particular, are clearly understudied. However, despite representing a marginal share of natural disasters at the global level, volcanic eruptions are a major threat in some countries, such as Indonesia or Ecuador. The present dissertation tries to contribute to the literature by investigating the long-term effect of volcanic hazard on farmers’ capital accumulation, the impact of an eruption on social capital, as well as the potential mitigating role of public authorities on migration decisions.

十八世紀的工業發展富裕了人類的物質生活，生態環境卻也逐遭破壞 ；人們因科技文明引發的現代風險的多樣性、全球性、不易衡量與不易預 測性，遂將傳統注重資源分配的「階級社會」帶領到新的注重風險如何在 社會中平等並合法分配的「風險社會」(Risk society) (Beck,1992)，社 會風險概念乃應運而生。從社會文明演進來看，現代風險與過去風險在本 質上有著極大差異，過去風險多以自然災害的威脅為主，而現代風險則以 科技進步帶來的威亦即公害佔多數，綜言之為風險的不確定性、風險承擔 的不公平性、影響的遲延性與風險產生的社會妥當性。也因如此風險管理 則具相當的「利益衡量」與「政策決擇」色彩，風險溝通遂乃成為有效風 險管理的主要因素，成為綜合其他風險議題如風險認知、風險評估、風險 管理等的橋樑。風險溝通與其他溝通議題的最大差別，前者尤強調人文層 面因素重於科學分析結果。建立一個合理可接受的風險水準與風險認知息 息相關，專家的科學分析結果固然重要，民眾對風險的了解卻多以一般知 識與過去生活經驗認知，再加上現代風險多涉及高度的科技性，專業術語 常令民眾產生距離與不信任感，在公害問題上糾紛多因而產生。風險溝通 除了儘量降低衝突外，更積極地為建立風險的正確認知，加強自我防禦機 能，故公共介入、民眾的參與對於事前與事後溝通的成效，可避免糾紛爭 端的發生。 從７０年代起公害糾紛屢見不鮮，抗議者手段皆多由緩和 後因意見得不到適切回應始引發衝突性高的行動；抗爭者與被抗議者亦多 有組織化趨勢；不管是「事前預防型」或「事後補救型」活動，政府的溝 通方式多仍停留在技術層面單向說服性的宣導亦多為被動；反觀國外對溝 通的努力較為積極，坦誠公開的溝通態度，重視一致、簡明的訊息揭露， 並考慮到居民心理壓力的疏解，強調風險溝通的地方時效性，這是國內糾 紛處理不足之處。由於糾紛事件中多有金錢賠償、健康檢查之訴求，故糾 紛處理與公害賠償制度在事後溝通上就佔極重要角色。日本的公害糾處理 與健康受害補償制度是除了民事訟訴外另闢之行政救濟管道，為衝突解決 與公害損害補償提供了訊速有效的溝通管道。我國有關公害糾紛處理已於 ８２年二月完成立法，至於公害補償卻散見於法令中，盼儘快建立污染者 付費原則、賠償基金的設立及加強公害保險功能，健全風險溝通的角色。

The role of trust in social, economic, political, and organizational relations is a research topic that has received much attention during the last decade. Trust has been considered a key variable in various contexts, although it should be noted that many theorists pay little attention to empirically testing their arguments about the importance of trust. It is in the present thesis examined whether trust is an important variable in the context of risk policy.This question was addressed from different perspectives in three empirical studies, which were based on extensive survey data. The first article concerned the case of energy policy and the relationship between people’s perceptions of nuclear risks and their attitudes towards various aspects of energy policy was examined. In the second article it was studied whether trust was an important predictor of perceived risk within and across four European countries. Finally, in the third article, determinants of public trust in organizations were studied. An important finding in the thesis was that determinants of trust varied depending on the organization studied. It was also found that trust was a significant predictor of perceived risk, but the relationship was not very strong. It was suggested that the overall policy implications for risk management should be that there are limits to the possibilities to increase the level of trustworthiness and build public trust. An organization could make strong efforts to build an image of being a competent, open, fair, and credible organization, but still not gain the necessary degree of trust, because public perceptions can be based on certain organizational characteristics that are very fundamental and not easily changed. Furthermore, even if an organization succeeds in building a high degree of public trust, it was found in the thesis that it is possible to trust those responsible for risk management to be very competent and honest, yet perceive risks as high. A number of possible causes for this interesting finding are presented in the thesis. / <p>Diss. Stockholm : Handelshögskolan, 2003</p>

A system of systems (SoS) framework is proposed for policy design that takes into account the value systems of multiple participants, harnesses the complexity of strategic interactions among participants, and confronts the risks and uncertainties present in participants’ decision making. SoS thinking provides an integrative and adaptive mindset, which is needed to tackle policy challenges characterized by conflict, complexity, and uncertainty. With the aim of putting SoS thinking into practice, operational methods and tools are presented herein. Specifically, SoS engineering methodologies to create value system models, agent-based models of competitive and cooperative behaviour under conflict, and risk management models are developed and integrated into the framework. The proposed structure, methods and tools can be utilized to organize policy design discourse. Communication among participants involved in the policy discussion is structured around SoS models, which are used to integrate multiple perspectives of a system and to test the effectiveness of policies in achieving desirable outcomes under varying conditions. In order to demonstrate the proposed methods and tools that have been developed to enliven policy design discourse, a theoretical common-pool resources dilemma is utilized. The generic application illustrates the methodology of constructing ordinal preferences from values. Also, it is used to validate the agent-based modeling and simulation platform as a tool to investigate strategic interactions among participants and harness the potential to influence and enable participants to achieve desirable outcomes. A real-world common pool resources dilemma in the provisioning and security considerations of the Straits of Malacca and Singapore is examined and employed as a case study for applying strategic conflict models in risk management. Overall, this thesis advances the theory and application of SoS engineering and focuses on understanding value systems, handling complexity in terms of conflict dynamics, and finally, enhancing risk management.