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Estudos de periodicidades: séries temporais de chuvas no Nordeste do Brasil. / Studies of periodicities: rainfall series in the Northeast of Brazil.MONTE, Edmundo Marinho do. 26 September 2018 (has links)
Submitted by Johnny Rodrigues (johnnyrodrigues@ufcg.edu.br) on 2018-09-26T15:59:41Z
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EDMUNDO MARINHO DO MONTE - DISSERTAÇÃO PPGMet 1986..pdf: 16047223 bytes, checksum: 7b7705762d66d8f128aa014a86e960b9 (MD5)
Previous issue date: 1986-09-05 / CNPq / Analisando-se os totais mensais e anuais de precipitação para 96 postos da região Nordeste do Brasil, refererentes ao período de 1912 a 1981, identificam-se cinco regimes
pluviais. Regimes climáticos representando cada um destes regimes pluviais são definidos. Tais regimes climáticos são denominados por RM1 e RM2 ; RL1 e RL2; RD; localizados respectivamente nas subregiões Norte, Leste e Sul do Nordeste do Brasil. Utiliza-se Análise Harmônica para a identificação de componentes cíclicas nas séries pluviométricas dos 96 postos. Periodicidades diferentes distribuem-se a longo das subregiões do Nordeste do Brasil, sugefindo que mais de um sistema físico contribui para as chuvas na região. Notadamente, uma periodicidade de 13 anos aparece de forma mais frequente nas chuvas no Nordeste. Sugere-se que esta última periodicidade está relacionada com ocorrências (a cada 13,2 anos) de um forte "El Nino", e ainda, possivelmente, ligada ao ciclo de 11 anos do número de manchas solares. Determinam-se correlações estatísticas entre as séries de precipitações anuais dos regimes climáticos. Os resultados de tais correlações indicam que, possivelmente, mais de um sistema físico em escala global atuam nas subregiões do Nordeste do Brasil (Norte, Leste e Sul) e também que um sistema físico global atua, ano a ano, sobre toda a região. Encontra-se
uma fraca correlação linear entre as precipitações dos regimes climáticos e o número de manchas solares. Analisa-se um modelo de regressão linear, que tem como variáveis os valores extremos (máximos, mínimos) do número de manchas solares e das precipitações médias dos regimes climáticos. Tal modelo é utilizado em prognósticos de precipitações médias regionais dos regimes climáticos. Devido à fraca correlação entre as precipitações dos regimes climáticos e o número de manchas solares, o modelo de regressão considerado contém um alto grau de incerteza. / Monthly and annual totais of precipitation from 96 stations in Northeast Brazil, period 1912-1981, were analyzed. Five rain regimes were identified and used for establishing corresponding climatic regimes. Such climatic regimes are named RM1 and RM2; RL1 and RL2; RD; and located at the North, East and South Brazilian Northeast subregions. Harmonic analysis was employed for identifying ciclic components of each station precipitation time series.The analysis showed that different periodicities are distributed
throughout Brazilian Northeast region, suggesting that more than one physical system contributes for rains in that region. Particu 1 ar1y, a thirteen-year periodicity appears more frequentiy. It is suggested that this periodicity is correlated with occ-urrence (at each 13.2 years) of a strong "El Nino" and, a 1 s o , related to the eleven-year cycle of sunspot number. Statistical correiat ions between annual prec i p i tat ion time series of the climatic regimes were determined. They suggest that, possibly, more than one physical system in a global scale acts on the different sub-regions of Northeast Brazil, (North, East and South) also that a global physical system acts, year after year, over the whole region. A weak correlation was found between precipitation of the climatic regimes and sunspot number. A linear regression model was employed for the extreme values (máxima, minima) of precipitation and sunspot number. Such model was used for predicting mean regional precipitation for each climatic regime. Because of the weak correlation between precipitations of climatic regimes and sunspot number, this regression model is considered to have a high degree of uncertainty.
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A Pragmatic Standard of Legal ValidityTyler, John 2012 May 1900 (has links)
American jurisprudence currently applies two incompatible validity standards to determine which laws are enforceable. The natural law tradition evaluates validity by an uncertain standard of divine law, and its methodology relies on contradictory views of human reason. Legal positivism, on the other hand, relies on a methodology that commits the analytic fallacy, separates law from its application, and produces an incomplete model of law.
These incompatible standards have created a schism in American jurisprudence that impairs the delivery of justice. This dissertation therefore formulates a new standard for legal validity. This new standard rejects the uncertainties and inconsistencies inherent in natural law theory. It also rejects the narrow linguistic methodology of legal positivism.
In their stead, this dissertation adopts a pragmatic methodology that develops a standard for legal validity based on actual legal experience. This approach focuses on the operations of law and its effects upon ongoing human activities, and it evaluates legal principles by applying the experimental method to the social consequences they produce. Because legal history provides a long record of past experimentation with legal principles, legal history is an essential feature of this method.
This new validity standard contains three principles. The principle of reason requires legal systems to respect every subject as a rational creature with a free will. The principle of reason also requires procedural due process to protect against the punishment of the innocent and the tyranny of the majority. Legal systems that respect their subjects' status as rational creatures with free wills permit their subjects to orient their own behavior. The principle of reason therefore requires substantive due process to ensure that laws provide dependable guideposts to individuals in orienting their behavior.
The principle of consent recognizes that the legitimacy of law derives from the consent of those subject to its power. Common law custom, the doctrine of stare decisis, and legislation sanctioned by the subjects' legitimate representatives all evidence consent.
The principle of autonomy establishes the authority of law. Laws must wield supremacy over political rulers, and political rulers must be subject to the same laws as other citizens. Political rulers may not arbitrarily alter the law to accord to their will.
Legal history demonstrates that, in the absence of a validity standard based on these principles, legal systems will not treat their subjects as ends in themselves. They will inevitably treat their subjects as mere means to other ends. Once laws do this, men have no rest from evil.
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