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Macroeconomic Effects on Commercial Real Estate Prices: An Outlook / Makroekonomiska variablers effekt på kommersiella fastighetspriser: En prognosLoberg Bateman, Joseph, Jakobsson, Villy January 2024 (has links)
The Swedish real estate market has, and arguably still continues to, endure a crisis in terms of increased interest rate followed by uncertainties on a global scale. Both the residential and commercial real estate market has been affected, seeing prices and transaction volumes decrease as a consequence. The commercial real estate market is largely dependent on financing, which is further strengthened by the large amount of the Swedish banks’ total lending that is directed towards the commercial real estate sector. These aspects combined proves the need of accurately forecasting the real estate market, partly in the aspect of investment decision making but also in relation to the development of the overall economy. To connect the real estate market with the economy as a whole, this study will analyze five different macroeconomic variables’ effect on the transaction price on commercial real estate in Sweden, as well as making forecasts on the future outlook of real estate prices in relation to the development of the variables. This is conducted with the time series regression model ARIMAX, which utilizes lagged versions of previous commercial real estate prices along with macroeconomic variables in terms of GDP, KIX (the krona index), real interest rate, the Euro/SEK exchange rate as well as the unemployment rate. The model is conducted in relation to the commercial real estate market in Sweden, with a dataset of commercial transactions ranging from 1996 until 2023. Additionally, an analysis of a subset of solely the industrial segment is investigated. Lastly, the forecasting of real estate prices was conducted in relation to a scenario analysis. The analysis was built on multiple market outlooks by utilizing a predictive movement of the independent variables in relation to three scenarios: pessimistic, base and optimistic. The results of the scenario analysis depicts a fairly modest difference in predicted outcomes on the transaction price in December 2024 in relation to the different scenarios. / Den svenska fastighetsmarknaden har genomgått, och enligt vissa prognoser genomgår, en kris i form av höjda räntor följt av osäkerheter på global nivå. Både bostadsfastigheter och kommersiella fastigheter har påverkats och priserna och transaktionsvolymerna har sjunkit som en följd av detta. Den kommersiella fastighetsmarknaden är till stor del beroende av finansiering, vilket ytterligare förstärks av att en stor del av de svenska bankernas totala utlåning är riktad mot den kommersiella fastighetssektorn. Dessa aspekter sammantaget visar på behovet av att kunna göra korrekta prognoser för fastighetsmarknaden, dels för att kunna fatta investeringsbeslut men också för att kunna bedöma utvecklingen av ekonomin överlag. För att koppla samman fastighetsmarknaden med ekonomin i stort kommer denna studie att analysera fem olika makroekonomiska variablers effekt på transaktionspriset på kommersiella fastigheter i Sverige, samt göra prognoser om fastighetsprisernas framtidsutsikter i förhållande till variablernas utveckling. Detta görs med tidsserieregressionsmodellen ARIMAX, som utnyttjar laggade versioner av tidigare kommersiella fastighetspriser tillsammans med makroekonomiska variabler i form av BNP, KIX (kronindex), realränta, växelkursen Euro/SEK samt arbetslöshet. Modellen genomförs i relation till den kommersiella fastighetsmarknaden i Sverige, med ett dataset av kommersiella transaktioner från 1996 till 2023. Dessutom genomförs en analys av enbart industrisegmentet. Slutligen genomfördes en prognostisering av fastighetspriserna med hjälp av en scenarioanalys. Analysen byggde på flera marknadsutsikter genom att använda den förutspådda förändringen av de oberoende variablerna i förhållande till tre scenarier: pessimistisk, bas och optimistisk. Resultatet av scenarioanalysen visar på en svag men noterbar skillnad i förväntat utfall för transaktionspriset i december 2024 i förhållande till de olika scenarierna.
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Commercial mortgage market liquidity and its effect on capitalization ratesDestefano, Leonard G. 01 January 2010 (has links)
This study extends a previously developed model of real estate capitalization rates. The preceding model suggests that real estate cap rates are a function of debt and equity spreads over the real risk free rate. In an effort to further the previous research, the effects that commercial real estate mortgage markets have on cap rates is considered. Mortgage originations and debt service coverage ratios are used to proxy the effects of the commercial mortgage market. The empirical results reconfirm the significance of debt and equity spreads. Furthermore, mortgage markets are shown to have a significant effect on capitalization rates. These results help to explain contributing factors to the real estate bubble of 2007.
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Estruturação de um sistema de rating para a classificação do risco de vinculação de empreendimentos de base imobiliária em garantia de operações de crédito de longo prazo. / Structuring of a rating system for the classification of risk of linking commercial real estate properties as guarantee for long-term credit operations.Florencio, Lutemberg de Araújo 01 March 2018 (has links)
Está cada vez mais presente no mercado de crédito a concessão de financiamentos de longo prazo pelas instituições financeiras cujas garantias reais da operação de crédito são empreendimentos de base imobiliária (EBIs), tais como shopping centers, hotéis, hospitais, edifícios de escritórios para locação (EEL), entre outros. Em decorrência, a valuation de EBIs tornou-se de extrema relevância paras os agentes financeiros, uma vez que impacta diretamente na determinação do índice de garantia (IG), importante indicador utilizado pelo credor para aferir a margem de segurança do agente financiador em caso de inadimplência do tomador de recursos. Contudo, a reducionista análise do IG atrelada a atual simplificação promovida pelos bancos de se adotar critérios de avaliação de EBIs sustentados na abordagem do custo, que resulta no valor patrimonial, pode conduzir a resultados viesados ou inconsistentes, além de criar uma pseudoblindagem de exposição ao risco, falseando o processo de tomada de decisão e até mesmo anulando a possibilidade de explorá-lo em benefício do ganho de competividade e rentabilidade. Diante disto e a fim de subsidiar os bancos no que tange à análise da adequabilidade de incorporar EBIs em colateral, a presente tese propõe a estruturação de um sistema de rating para a classificação do risco de vinculação de EBIs em garantia, de forma a refletir o efetivo grau de cobertura proporcionado pelo colateral ante a operação de crédito. O sistema de rating ora proposto está sustentado em dois pilares: [i] na arbitragem do valor de garantia, segundo o conceito de valor da oportunidade de investimento e sob o princípio do value at risk, em que o valor arbitrado do empreendimento está associado à capacidade de geração de renda da propriedade e tem um grau de probabilidade e risco e [ii] na construção da matriz de rating, que constitui o núcleo do sistema de rating e envolve a determinação das dimensões de risco (e dos respectivos parâmetros de risco) ponderadas pela referida matriz, assim denominadas: [a] suficiência da garantia, [b] volatilidade do valor de garantia e [c] lastro patrimonial do empreendimento. Nesta tese, demonstrou-se a aplicação do sistema de rating a partir de um protótipo de referência que considera as relações encontradas no respectivo segmento de mercado e reproduz a configuração de um processo decisório que envolve uma operação de financiamento lastreada por um EEL. Os resultados obtidos evidenciaram que o sistema de rating pode auxiliar a gestão do risco de crédito pelos bancos, na medida em que constitui o ferramental adequado para fornecer informações, de forma ágil e eficiente, acerca do perfil de risco de vinculação de EBIs em colateral, agregando o nível de conforto necessário à decisão. O sistema de rating ora proposto abre uma nova perspectiva de análise do risco de vinculação de EBIs em garantia e constitui uma alternativa consistente ao uso do IG em operações de crédito de longo prazo. / There is a steady trend for the long-term financing of financial institutions whose real guarantees of the credit operation are commercial real estate properties (CREP), such as shopping malls, hotels, hospitals, office buildings, among others. As a result, the valuation of CREP has become extremely relevant for financial agents, since it directly impacts the determination of the guarantee index (GI), an important indicator used by the creditor to assess the margin of safety of the financing agent in the event of default of the borrower. However, the reductionist analysis of the GI coupled with the current simplification promoted by banks to adopt CREP valuation criteria based on the cost or patrimonial value approach may lead to biased or inconsistent results, as well as creating a pseudo-protection of risk exposure, distorting the decision-making process and even nullifying the possibility of exploiting it for the benefit of gaining competitiveness and profitability. In view of this and in order to subsidize the banks in the analysis of the suitability of incorporating CREP into collateral, this thesis proposes the structuring of a rating system for the risk classification of linking CREP into collateral, in order to reflect the effective degree of coverage provided by the collateral before the credit operation. The rating system proposed here is based on two pillars: [i] in the arbitrage of the guarantee value, according to the concept of investment opportunity value and under the principle of value at risk, in which the arbitrated value of the CREP is associated with the ability to generate income from the property and has a degree of probability and risk and [ii] in the construction of the rating matrix, which constitutes the core of the rating system and involves the determination of the risk dimensions (and risk parameters) weighted by that matrix, so-called: [a] collateral sufficiency, [b] volatility of the guarantee value and [c] patrimonial coverage of the property. In this thesis, we demonstrated the application of the rating system from a reference prototype that considers the relationships found in the respective market segment and reproduces the configuration of a decisionmaking process that involves a financing operation backed by an office building. The results obtained showed that the rating system can help the management of credit risk by the banks, as it is the adequate tool to provide information, in a quick and efficient way, about the risk profile of linking CREP into collateral, adding the level of comfort necessary for such decision. The proposed rating system opens a new perspective for analyzing the risk of linking CREP into collateral and constitutes a consistent alternative to the use of the GI in long-term credit operations.
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Det utvidgade reparationsbegreppet : Skattemässigt ofördelaktigt att vidta flertalet åtgärder vid ett tillfälle? / The extended concept of repairs : Unfavorable in tax terms to perform multiple alterations at one time?Andersson, Henrik January 2014 (has links)
Utgifter för vissa ändringsarbeten på näringsfastigheter medför direktavdrag då de genom det så kallade utvidgade reparationsbegreppet i 19 kap. 2 § 2 st. Inkomstskattelagen klassificeras som reparation och underhåll. För att falla in under det utvidgade reparationsbegreppet får åtgärderna inte medföra en väsentlig förändring av fastigheten. Högsta förvaltningsdomstolen har i mål 2012 ref. 15 avgjort det enda målet i högsta instans rörande det utvidgade reparationsbegreppet sedan begreppet ändrades genom en lagändring 2000. Utmärkande för målet är att ett fastighetsförvaltande bolag vidtog ett stort antal åtgärder på fastigheten vid ett och samma tillfälle. Högsta förvaltningsdomstolen ansåg att omfattningen av åtgärderna gjorde att de inte föll in under det utvidgade reparationsbegreppet. Fastighetsägare kan av olika skäl välja att vidta ett flertal åtgärder på sin fastighet vid ett och samma tillfälle. Eftersom åtgärderna då kan förefalla att vara väsentliga på grund av dess omfattning, finns en risk att ändringar som egentligen är en anhopning av ändringsarbeten som faller in under det utvidgade reparationsbegreppet istället anses innebära en väsentlig förändring av byggnaden. I denna uppsats har författaren med utgångspunkt i HFD 2012 ref. 15 och underinstanspraxis undersökt huruvida ett fastighetsförvaltande bolag som vidtar ett flertal åtgärder på en fastighet vid ett och samma tillfälle försätts i en skattemässigt sämre situation än en fastighetsägare som väljer att sprida ut åtgärderna över tiden. Författaren anser att slutsatsen torde kunna dras att ett fastighetsförvaltande bolag som väljer att vidta ett flertal åtgärder på en fastighet vid ett och samma tillfälle försätts i en skattemässigt sämre situation än en fastighetsägare som väljer att sprida ut åtgärderna över tiden. / Expenses for certain alterations of commercial real estate qualify for direct tax deduction, as they are seen as repairs and maintenance through the extended concept of repairs in ch. 19 sec. 2 para. 2 of the Swedish Income Tax Act. To fall within the concept, the alterations must not result in a substantial change of the property. The Swedish Supreme Administrative Court has in the case HFD 2012 ref. 15 given the only ruling in the highest instance regarding the extended concept of repairs since the concept was changed through an amendment of the law in 2000. Distinguishing for the case is that it concerned a real estate management company that made several alterations on its estate at one time. The Supreme Administrative Court ruled that the width of the alterations did that they fell outside of the extended concept of repairs. Commercial real estate owners can for different reasons want to make several alterations at one time. Since the alterations in such cases can be seen as substantial, there is a risk that alterations which on its own fall within the extended concept of repairs are deemed to fall outside of the concept. In this thesis the author has investigated whether a real estate management company that makes several alterations at one time on a property is set in a disadvantageous tax position compared to a estate owner that choose to spread the alterations over time. The starting point of this investigation has been the Supreme Administrative Court’s ruling in HFD 2012 ref. 15 and rulings from the lower courts. The author establish that the conclusion can be drawn that a real estate management company that makes several alterations at one time on a property is set in a disadvantageous tax position compared to an estate owner that choose to spread the alterations over time.
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The Impact of Tenants Default Risk and Transactional Variables on Value: An Empirical Model of Single Tenant Net Leased Retail AssetsCrockett, Braden R 01 January 2015 (has links)
I present an empirical model that is based upon the findings of both the conceptual and empirical models of previous research. I first control for independent property, location, macroeconomic and capital market specific variables on the dependent variables that takes on the form of both the cap rate and sales price. Next I introduce two new variables that represent the transaction constraint and the default risk of the tenant. I find that the variable market which represents the time an individual property is on the market is statistically significant and has a negative coefficient of when regressed on sales price and a positive coefficient when regressed on the cap rate. When the market variable is further broken into bins, I found that the time on the market does not negatively impact a property unless it is in fact on the market for over 2 years. When the variable representing a tenant’s default risk is regressed on the cap rate I found the tenants probability of default to be statistically significant with a negative coefficient. This result is counter intuitive and most likely represents the data set being controlled for investment grade credit rated tenants.
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Förhållandet mellan risk och avkastning vid fastighetsinvesteringar : En jämförelse mellan kommersiella fastigheter och bostadsfastigheterBroberg, Andreas, Göransson, Calle January 2018 (has links)
Twice a year, NAI Svefa publishes a report containing statistics on Sweden's real estate market.The report shows that commercial real estate on average has a clearly higher rate of returncompared to residential real estate. Risk and return have a close relationship where investorswho take a higher risk also expect a higher return. This indicates that commercial properties aremore risky to hold compared to residential properties. This paper examines the risks that cancause the difference in the yield requirement between the two property types. Six risks havebeen selected, three of which count as micro risks and three count as macro risks. The microrisks consist of financial risk, liquidity risk and business risk. The macro risks consist of cyclicalrisk, interest rate risk and political risk.The study is qualitative and includes personal interviews with eight respondents from wellestablishedSwedish real estate companies. Data collection has been done through interviewswhere respondents' responses have been compiled and then compared to each other. Theinterviews show that Swedish real estate companies agree with the reasoning between risk andreturn and that risk assessment is an important part of real estate investments.The study's results show that commercial real estate companies value financial, liquidity andbusiness risk higher than real estate companies focused on residential real estate. Interest raterisk and business risk are similarly assessed in both property types. However, the political riskis valued higher by real estate companies focused on residential real estate. The study showsthat all risks are linked, which makes it difficult to identify an individual risk that individuallycontrols the rate of return. However, after the study's implementation, the cyclical risk appearsto be the risk that has the greatest impact on the difference in the yield requirement between thetwo property types.
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Estruturação de um sistema de rating para a classificação do risco de vinculação de empreendimentos de base imobiliária em garantia de operações de crédito de longo prazo. / Structuring of a rating system for the classification of risk of linking commercial real estate properties as guarantee for long-term credit operations.Lutemberg de Araújo Florencio 01 March 2018 (has links)
Está cada vez mais presente no mercado de crédito a concessão de financiamentos de longo prazo pelas instituições financeiras cujas garantias reais da operação de crédito são empreendimentos de base imobiliária (EBIs), tais como shopping centers, hotéis, hospitais, edifícios de escritórios para locação (EEL), entre outros. Em decorrência, a valuation de EBIs tornou-se de extrema relevância paras os agentes financeiros, uma vez que impacta diretamente na determinação do índice de garantia (IG), importante indicador utilizado pelo credor para aferir a margem de segurança do agente financiador em caso de inadimplência do tomador de recursos. Contudo, a reducionista análise do IG atrelada a atual simplificação promovida pelos bancos de se adotar critérios de avaliação de EBIs sustentados na abordagem do custo, que resulta no valor patrimonial, pode conduzir a resultados viesados ou inconsistentes, além de criar uma pseudoblindagem de exposição ao risco, falseando o processo de tomada de decisão e até mesmo anulando a possibilidade de explorá-lo em benefício do ganho de competividade e rentabilidade. Diante disto e a fim de subsidiar os bancos no que tange à análise da adequabilidade de incorporar EBIs em colateral, a presente tese propõe a estruturação de um sistema de rating para a classificação do risco de vinculação de EBIs em garantia, de forma a refletir o efetivo grau de cobertura proporcionado pelo colateral ante a operação de crédito. O sistema de rating ora proposto está sustentado em dois pilares: [i] na arbitragem do valor de garantia, segundo o conceito de valor da oportunidade de investimento e sob o princípio do value at risk, em que o valor arbitrado do empreendimento está associado à capacidade de geração de renda da propriedade e tem um grau de probabilidade e risco e [ii] na construção da matriz de rating, que constitui o núcleo do sistema de rating e envolve a determinação das dimensões de risco (e dos respectivos parâmetros de risco) ponderadas pela referida matriz, assim denominadas: [a] suficiência da garantia, [b] volatilidade do valor de garantia e [c] lastro patrimonial do empreendimento. Nesta tese, demonstrou-se a aplicação do sistema de rating a partir de um protótipo de referência que considera as relações encontradas no respectivo segmento de mercado e reproduz a configuração de um processo decisório que envolve uma operação de financiamento lastreada por um EEL. Os resultados obtidos evidenciaram que o sistema de rating pode auxiliar a gestão do risco de crédito pelos bancos, na medida em que constitui o ferramental adequado para fornecer informações, de forma ágil e eficiente, acerca do perfil de risco de vinculação de EBIs em colateral, agregando o nível de conforto necessário à decisão. O sistema de rating ora proposto abre uma nova perspectiva de análise do risco de vinculação de EBIs em garantia e constitui uma alternativa consistente ao uso do IG em operações de crédito de longo prazo. / There is a steady trend for the long-term financing of financial institutions whose real guarantees of the credit operation are commercial real estate properties (CREP), such as shopping malls, hotels, hospitals, office buildings, among others. As a result, the valuation of CREP has become extremely relevant for financial agents, since it directly impacts the determination of the guarantee index (GI), an important indicator used by the creditor to assess the margin of safety of the financing agent in the event of default of the borrower. However, the reductionist analysis of the GI coupled with the current simplification promoted by banks to adopt CREP valuation criteria based on the cost or patrimonial value approach may lead to biased or inconsistent results, as well as creating a pseudo-protection of risk exposure, distorting the decision-making process and even nullifying the possibility of exploiting it for the benefit of gaining competitiveness and profitability. In view of this and in order to subsidize the banks in the analysis of the suitability of incorporating CREP into collateral, this thesis proposes the structuring of a rating system for the risk classification of linking CREP into collateral, in order to reflect the effective degree of coverage provided by the collateral before the credit operation. The rating system proposed here is based on two pillars: [i] in the arbitrage of the guarantee value, according to the concept of investment opportunity value and under the principle of value at risk, in which the arbitrated value of the CREP is associated with the ability to generate income from the property and has a degree of probability and risk and [ii] in the construction of the rating matrix, which constitutes the core of the rating system and involves the determination of the risk dimensions (and risk parameters) weighted by that matrix, so-called: [a] collateral sufficiency, [b] volatility of the guarantee value and [c] patrimonial coverage of the property. In this thesis, we demonstrated the application of the rating system from a reference prototype that considers the relationships found in the respective market segment and reproduces the configuration of a decisionmaking process that involves a financing operation backed by an office building. The results obtained showed that the rating system can help the management of credit risk by the banks, as it is the adequate tool to provide information, in a quick and efficient way, about the risk profile of linking CREP into collateral, adding the level of comfort necessary for such decision. The proposed rating system opens a new perspective for analyzing the risk of linking CREP into collateral and constitutes a consistent alternative to the use of the GI in long-term credit operations.
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Batterilager i kommersiella fastigheter : Lönsamhetsanalys av batterilager med hjälp av blandad heltalsprogrammering / Battery storage within commercial real estate : An economic analysis of battery storage using mixed integer linear programmingGustafsson, Marcus January 2017 (has links)
De senaste åren har en större mängd decentraliserad och variabel energiproduktion tagit plats inom elsystemet, mer specifikt vindkraft och solkraft, och etablering av mer distribuerad produktion kommer att fortsätta i enlighet med mål från nationer och världsorganisationer att fasa ut fossila bränslen och minska på växthusgasutsläpp. I takt med nedläggning av storskaliga kraftverk baserade på fossila bränslen påverkar detta möjligheterna att möta upp elbehovet med den tillgängliga produktionen. Mycket variabel produktion har samtidigt en negativ påverkan på elnätstabiliteten och kan skapa höga effekttoppar. Detta har skapat ett ökat behov av mer flexibilitet på kundsidan för att skapa balans på elnätet. Elektrokemiska batterilager kan lösa många av problemen som uppstår med intermittent förnybar energiproduktion. Batterilager har både utvecklats teknologiskt och minskats i pris avsevärt de senaste tio åren och kostnaderna kommer fortsätta att gå ned. För att batterilager på allvar ska bli intressant behöver aktörer som investerar i denna teknologi veta om det någon gång inom en snar framtid kommer att vara en positiv affär. Syftet med detta arbete har därför varit att undersöka lönsamheten med batterilager i kommersiella fastigheter idag och inom de närmsta 10 åren på den svenska marknaden. Studien har, med hjälp av blandad heltalsprogrammering (MILP) i MATLAB, tagit fram en modell som optimalt schemalägger energiflöden för en fastighet som har ett batterisystem och egen produktion installerat baserat på olika prisbilder. Modellen har i sin tur använts för att beräkna de ekonomiska möjligheterna som erbjuds på Sveriges elmarknad med ett batterisystem i en mängd olika scenarier både vad gäller pris på el, olika effektabonnemang, integration med solpaneler, olika batteristorlekar och systemlivslängd. Resultatet visar att det inte finns någon lönsamhet i att investera i batterier för de undersökta fastigheterna så som Sveriges elmarknad ser ut idag och någon hög lönsamhet kommer inte att ske även om pristrenden på batterier fortsätter nedåt. Ett mindre batterisystem på 28 kWh kan ge, beräknat med internräntan, en positiv avkastning på 1 % år 2020 men ju större batteriet är desto mindre blir avkastningen. Högst avkastningen som kan fås med dagens el- och nätpriser är 4-5 % om en investering görs med 2025-2030 års batteripriser. Om elnätsägarna går mot att endast erbjuda tidsdifferentierade nättariffer året om och det implementeras högre effektavgifter finns det möjligheter att avkastningen kan bli så hög som 15-18 % med 2025-2030 års batteripriser. Arbetet visar också att kapandet av effekttoppar med större batterilager än 28 kWh inte är kostnadseffektivt för de undersökta fastigheterna. / The world has seen a rapid deployment of distributed and time-varying renewable energy systems (RES) within the electricity grids for the past 20 years, especially from wind and solar power. The deployment RES is expected to increase even more as world organizations and nations will continue the phase-out of fossil fuels as the main source of energy for electricity production. As large scale power plants reliant on fossil fuels will shut down it will be harder for the system to balance production and demand. At the same time, time-varying production might have a negative effect on the grid stability which has spurred an increased interest in flexibility on the demand side and a call for technologies and strategies that can create balance on the grid. Energy storage, especially electrochemical battery storage, is seen as a part of a bigger solution to the problems that comes with intermittent energy production. Battery storage has had a fast technological development and a sharp downtrend in pricing the latest ten years and the costs are expected to keep on decreasing. For battery storage to be a serious contender on the electricity market there is a need to understand if and when an investment in this technology might give a positive outcome. The aim of this study has therefore been to analyse the profitability of battery storage within commercial real estate today, and in the oncoming 10-15 years on the Swedish electricity market. The study has, using mixed integer linear programming (MILP) within MATLAB, created a model which optimally schedules power flows for buildings that has a battery system and its own electricity production. The model has in turn been used to evaluate the economical possibilities that exist with a battery system within commercial real estate under various different scenarios that looks into pricing structures on electricity and demand, integration with and without solar panels, different battery sizes and system lifetimes. The results show that there is currently no profitability to invest in a battery system for the specific buildings analysed in this study. While break-even is possible just a couple of years from now, a high profitability will not be reached even with the future downtrend in battery prices under the current electricity market circumstances. A smaller battery system with a capacity of 28 kWh could give an internal rate of return (IRR) of 1 % year 2020. Larger battery systems are generally not cost-effective when compared to smaller battery systems when its primary purpose is utilized for demand reduction. Highest return with today’s electricity and utility pricing is 4-5 % somewhere between 2025 and 2030. However, if the market goes towards exclusively time-of-use billing structures on electricity and higher demand charges, the IRR can reach towards 15-18 % between 2025 and 2030.
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La financiarisation du capitalisme urbain : Marchés immobiliers tertiaires et politiques de développement urbain dans le Grand Paris et le Grand Lyon, les projets des Docks de Saint-Ouen et du Carré de Soie / The financialisation of urban capitalism : Commercial real estate markets and urban development policies in the Greater Paris and Lyon areas, Saint-Ouen's Docklands and the Carré de Soie regeneration projectsGuironnet, Antoine 20 June 2017 (has links)
De nombreux objets et espaces urbains situés dans les métropoles deviennent des actifs financiers. Bureaux, centres commerciaux, résidences étudiantes, grands équipements sont acquis par des fonds d’investissement et des sociétés cotées qui capitalisent sur les flux de revenus futurs générés par l’usage de ces bâtiments par des entreprises et des habitants. Le redéveloppement urbain à travers l’aménagement de quartiers mixtes se retrouve, par l’entremise des circuits de financement des marchés immobiliers, branché sur les marchés financiers. La thèse se propose d’analyser cette financiarisation du capitalisme urbain à partir de l’articulation des politiques des gouvernements urbains et des stratégies financières des gestionnaires d’actifs immobiliers. Les rapports de pouvoir entre ces deux acteurs et leurs effets socio-spatiaux et matériels sont interrogés à partir d’une comparaison de deux grands projets d’aménagements situés dans le Grand Paris et le Grand Lyon. C’est dans cette perspective que l’enquête porte sur les projets opérationnels, mais aussi sur les salons immobiliers où ils sont présentés, et les stratégies métropolitaines.La recherche montre qu’en dépit d’orientations politiques différentes, la construction d’immobilier tertiaire standardisé, polarisé, et réservé à quelques grandes entreprises conditionne le redéveloppement urbain dans les deux cas. Ces conditions correspondent aux standards d’investissement sélectifs des gestionnaires d’actifs, que les conseils en immobiliers et les promoteurs relayent auprès des gouvernements urbains. Elles résultent de processus dont la conflictualité varie en fonction des agendas locaux. Après d’intenses négociations menées par les promoteurs, la municipalité de Saint-Ouen a renoncé à certains principes structurants du projet des Docks. L’aménagement du Carré de Soie s’est au contraire traduit par un consensus entre promoteurs et le Grand Lyon autour de la réalisation d’un pôle tertiaire. Deux configurations locales sont avancées pour interpréter ce résultat comparatif propice à la financiarisation. La faiblesse de la régulation de la production de bureaux à l’échelle de la métropole parisienne conduit à des négociations localisées au sein du projet, où les objectifs municipaux sont contraints par la hiérarchisation des priorités politiques, les modalités de financement de l’aménagement et la matérialité du foncier. Dans la métropole lyonnaise, l’institutionnalisation d’une politique de l’offre immobilière portée par l’exécutif et les services de développement économique du Grand Lyon organise la circulation des standards d’investissement à l’échelle de l’agglomération et renforce leur poids sur l’aménagement.À partir de ces résultats, la thèse propose une lecture d’économie politique urbaine de la financiarisation de l’environnement urbain alternative à la théorie marxienne, en insistant sur le rôle des gestionnaires d’actifs et soulignant ses médiations. Elle contribue aux théories du pouvoir urbain en montrant le poids limité des agendas locaux sur les effets sélectifs de la financiarisation, et en discutant la formation, à certaines conditions, d’une coalition de croissance financiarisée / Myriads of urban objects and spaces located in city-regions have turned into financial assets. Office buildings, shopping malls, student dwellings, and large utilities are purchased by investment funds and listed property companies, which seek to capitalise on the future income streams based on their use by firms and people. Urban redevelopment and financial markets are thus intertwined through the financing circuits of property markets. By analysing the interactions between the financial strategies of real estate asset managers and the urban development policies of city governments, the thesis sets out to analyse this financialisation of urban capitalism. In order to question their power relationships and their socio-spatial and material outcomes, it develops a comparison between two large-scale, mixed-use urban redevelopment projects located in the Greater Paris and Greater Lyon areas. The comparison is based on the investigation of the projects, commercial real estate fairs where they are showcased to investors, and metropolitan strategies.Despite different local agendas, both projects leads to the production of standardised and spatially clustered commercial real estate buildings whose access is limited to a restricted set of tenants, thus strongly constraining urban redevelopment policies. Such characteristics correspond to the selective expectations of asset managers, whose investment standards are circulated by real estate brokers and developers to city governments. They result from different processes, which involve more or less conflicts according to local agendas. Faced with intense opposition from developers, the city of Saint-Ouen had to back on several key goals of the project, whereas the redevelopment of the Carre de Soie was undertaken on the basis of a strong consensus between local developers and the Greater Lyon metropolitan authority. In order to account for these differences, the thesis identifies two local configurations conducive of financialisation. In Saint-Ouen’s Docklands case, weak regulation at the city-region scale between cities competing to attract businesses contributes to localised power relationships; their results depend in turn from the combination between priority-setting, redevelopment financing and land materiality. In the Carre de Soie case, the institutionalisation of a property-led policy carried out by the metropolitan executive and its economic development staff has organised the circulation of investment standards at the city-region scale, thereby enhancing their impact on urban redevelopment.Based on these results, the thesis offers an urban political economy of the financialisation of urban production which, compared to Marxian theory, highlights the role of real estate asset managers and pays attention to the mediations of such a process. It also contributes to theories of urban power by emphasising the limited explanatory power of local agendas on the selective effects of financialisation. Eventually, it discusses how, under specific circumstances, an urban financialised coalition emerges
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Den subventionerade hyresrabatten – ett kontroversiellt ämne : En studie om fastighetsägare som har gett hyresrabatter i samband med covid-19 pandemin under 2020 / The subsidized rent rebate – a controversial matter : A study of property owners who have given rent discounts in connection with the covid-19 pandemic in 2020Ashir, Monty, Milutinovic, Kristian, Heibö Sundstdt, Philip January 2021 (has links)
Sveriges regering införde år 2020 ett statligt hyresrabattsstöd för ekonomiskt utsatta branscher som avsåg årets andra kvartal, och infördes som en snabb åtgärd för att begränsa oron som pandemikrisen medförde på marknaden. Stödet har kritiserats av både lokalhyresgäster och fastighetsägare. Frågan har varit kontroversiell med blandade åsikter om hur fördelningen av statens subventioner ska konstrueras för att uppnå bästa resultat i rådande situation.Syftet med studien är att belysa hur den statligt subventionerade hyresrabatten under coronapandemin har använts i praktiken. För att besvara studiens olika frågeställningar och för att uppnå syftet med studien, har en kvalitativ forskningsmetod använts. Avsikten med den kvalitativa forskningsintervjun är att förstå det utforskade ämnet ur de intervjuade fastighetsbolagens perspektiv och erfarenhet.Resultatet visar på att de främsta grunderna till varför bolagen tilldelat hyresrabatt till sina hyresgäster, har grundats i att fungera som en hjälpande hand och samtidigt undvika vakanser genom att värna om relationen mellan bolag och kund. Hyresrabatten har medfört en ekonomisk fördel för både fastighetsägare och hyresgäster där majoriteten av hyresgästerna har kunnat fortsatt bedriva sin verksamhet. För fastighetsägarna har det inneburit minimerade ombyggnadskostnader för att anpassa lokaler till nya hyresgäster. Det har framförts kritik mot själva upplägget av hyresrabattstödet, den administrativa delen har varit mycket invecklad och komplicerad. Man har dels fått agera som mellanhand och som ensam bransch behövt axla ansvaret, men även inneha rollen av en vågmästare vad avser tilldelning av hyresrabattstödet. / The Swedish government introduced a state rent rebate support for vulnerable industries in the first quarter of 2020, as a quick solution to dampen market turmoil. The support has been criticized by both tenants and property owners. It has been a controversial issue with various opinions on how the distribution of state subsidies should be constructed to best fit the current situation.The study is based on examining the state subsidized rent rebate that was distributed to the most affected industries. The purpose of the study is to clarify how the state-subsidized rent rebate during the corona pandemic has been used in practice.To answer the study's questions and to achieve the purpose of the study, a qualitative research method has been used. The purpose of the qualitative research interview is to understand the topic explored from the interviewee's own perspective and experience.The results show that the main reasons to why a rent discount was given to tenants, was to act as a helping hand to those most effected by the pandemic, but also to avoid vacancies. The rent discount resulted in a clear financial advantage for both the property owners and the tenants, where the majority of the tenants have been able to continue their business. The property owners have avoided high renovation costs to adapt premises for new tenants.Criticism has been leveled at the very structure of the rent rebate support, as the administrative part was complicated. The propery owners have partly been acting as an intermediary and solely shoulder the responsibility in terms of allocating the rent rebate.
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