本文主要針對台幣兌換美元的匯價，採用移動平均法則給定的交易訊號模擬交易，透過模擬交易得到顯著異於零的超額報酬，試著利用條件資本資產定價模型解釋超額報酬與風險之間的關係。實證結果顯示：在傳統資本資產定價模型下，超額報酬無法透過承擔風險所獲得風險貼水來解釋，但加入金融危機事件的影響後，發現在金融危機期間，市場風險係數下降，異常報酬增加，表示在此期間，即使市場大盤表現不佳，技術分析仍能成功捕捉台幣兌換美元的匯價變動趨勢，使金融危機期間的技術交易報酬平均高於金融危機前後。

Health problems of the human beings in a society are one of the main components of the social security systems due to the dimension of the financial burden it might bring on individuals, employers, insurance companies and governments. Morbidity measures, such as incidence and prevalence of a specific disease in a certain population enable researchers to estimate for individuals the probability of being diagnosed or being prone to the diseases. This information is usually not tractable because of the non-availability of the convenient data or recordings for many countries as well as Turkey. Even if it is available, it is commonly limited with largely varying characteristics about the type and coverage of the diseases. In this regard, the pattern that a population follows for an acute disease may not be the same for chronic diseases. Having those indicators determined for a group of insureds will enable underwriters to have more profitable and economical premium calculation and precision on required reserve estimation. v Based on their characteristics such as acute or chronic behaviour, the gender, and the location of residency of people, the diseases show different behaviour on their occurrences. From the insurer

Die Arbeit ANLEIHERATING UND BONITÄTSRISIKO untersucht die Zusammenhänge zwischen dem Rating von Anleihen, dem Risiko dieser Anleihen sowie ihren Risikoprämien (Spreads). Dazu wird in einem ersten Schritt - auf analytischer Ebene - untersucht, wie Ratings vergeben werden und welchen Einschränkungen sie unterliegen. Die wichtigsten Einschränkungen für den Kapitalmarkt hinsichtlich der Ableitung von quantitativen Risikogrößen (Ausfallwahrscheinlichkeit und ggf. Ausfallschwere) sind: Ordinalität und Relativität der verwendeten Skalen; die Zeitverzögerungen bei Ratingänderungen; die Intransparenz, Subjektivität und Urteilsunabhängigkeit des Ratingverfahrens bzw. der Ratingagenturen; die Erstellung von auftragslosen Ratings; die mangelnde Vergleichbarkeit von Ratings (zeitlich, zwischen Emissionen und zwischen Agenturen); die fehlende Äquidistanz von Ratings; das Risiko fehlerhafter Ratings. In einem zweiten Schritt wird empirisch untersucht, in welcher Höhe vom Markt Spreads (Überrenditen gegenüber den als risikolos geltenden Bundesanleihen) - je nach Rating - für bestimmte Anleihen gefordert werden. Datenbasis sind Kupon-Anleihen (ohne Sonderrechte) des DM-Euromarktes mit täglichen Kursen im Zeitraum Januar 1990 bis Dezember 1995. Die Untersuchungen bestätigen die Relativität: Ratings definieren nur im langfristigen Durchschnitt die Renditeabstände zwischen den verschiedenen Klassen. Kurzfristige Veränderungen der Spreads hingegen hängen von Veränderungen des allgemeinen Zinsniveaus und dem Verlauf der Zinsstrukturkurve ab. Diese beiden Größen weisen dabei einen negativen Einfluß auf, d.h. Zinserhöhungen führen zu Verringerungen der Spreads. Grundsätzlich gilt dabei aber, dass diese Effekte umso stärker ausfallen, je geringer die Bonität der Anleihen ist. Zusätzlich hängen die Spreadänderungen auch (positiv) von Veränderungen der Spreads der jeweils anderen Klassen ab. Als mögliche Erklärungsansätze bieten sich für diese Beobachtung auch an, dass der Markt Schwankungen der erwarteten Ausfallwahrscheinlichkeiten antizipiert und/oder Veränderungen der allgemeinen Risikoeinstellung vorliegen.

Universiẗat, Diss./07--Ingolstadt, 2006.

解約風險為壽險公司承保風險中最重要之風險，文獻指出若於保單定價時忽略解約率可能為動態，將影響壽險公司損益、資產配置、資金流動性及風險管理計畫。本研究將以保費及準備金試算進行實證研究，觀察以傳統精算方式定價(忽略解約率為動態)將對保費及準備金之計算造成多少誤差。 本研究首先使用台灣壽險業1987年至2011年之生死合險、終身壽險解約率資料，並透過主成分分析、模擬主成分分數並將其轉回各保單年度解約率，以完成動態解約率之模擬。接著以30歲男性為對象，計算不同情境下之保費及準備金。最後比較不同情境下之保費及準備金差異以了解忽略隨機解約率對保單定價之影響程度。 實證結果顯示，考量隨機解約率與否對生死合險保費計算稍有影響但不明顯，但若長期累積觀察，是否考量隨機解約率對生死合險準備金有顯著影響。本研究使用之終身壽險解約率模型與利率無關、僅受其自身隨機效果影響，故是否考量隨機解約率對終身壽險保費及準備金之影響程度皆不大。

My dissertation consists of three essays on the Korean labor market. The first essay studies how the extensive provision of maternity leave and childcare leave in Korea affects the employment and wages of young women. This reform is expected to increase the labor supply and decrease the labor demand for young women. As a result, the mean wage of young women should fall. But the direction of the change in their employment probability is hard to infer because it depends on the relative magnitudes of the shifts of the labor supply and demand curves. A difference-in-difference-in-differences model having older women, older men, and young men simultaneously as the control group suggests that neither the employment nor the hourly wages of young women are affected. The second essay explores why married men have higher hourly earnings and employment propensity than otherwise comparable single men. In a fixed effects regression, which controls for the selection of more productive men into marriage, married men do not experience faster growth in earnings and employment rate before marriage. Rather, when marriage takes place, the earnings of married men start increasing relative to those of single men. Also, that South Korean men have a greater earnings growth after marriage than U.S. men is consistent with the national difference in the degree of specialization within married households. Married men are more likely to work than single men only for the first few years of marriage, and single men outperform married men afterwards. The final essay studies why gender differences in earnings and earnings growth exist among new Korean college graduates before women take time off of work for marriage and motherhood. I find that women do not face an initial earnings gap after graduating college compared to men who finished military service. The lower earnings that women receive can be entirely explained by the difference in age at graduation between men and women. However, women's earnings grow slower than those of men who finished military service. This is partly because a greater percentage of women graduate from colleges of education, which provide slower earnings growth than other types of colleges. Most of the gender difference in earnings growth remains unexplained. / text

This thesis, “Empirical Asset Pricing and Investment Strategies”, examines a number of topics related to portfolio choice, asset pricing, and strategic and tactical asset allocation. The first two papers treat the predictability of asset returns. Since at least the mid-1980s until quite recently, the conventional wisdom has been that it is possible to predict the return on, for example, an index of stocks. However, a series of recent papers have challenged this conventional wisdom. I answer this challenge and show that it is possible to predict returns if structural changes in the underlying economy are taken into account. The third paper examines the comovement between stocks and bonds. I show how it is possible to improve the composition of a portfolio consisting of these two asset classes by taking into account how the comovement changes over time. All three papers are self-contained and can therefore be read in any order. The first paper is entitled “Structural Breaks in Asset Return Predictability: Can They Be Explained?” Here I investigate whether predictability has changed over time and, if so, whether it is possible to tie the change to any underlying economic variables. Dividend yield and the short interest rate are often used jointly as instruments to predict the return on stocks, but several researchers present evidence that the relation has undergone a structural break. I use a model that extends the conventional structural breaks models to allow both for smooth transitions from one state to another (with a break as a special case), and for transitions that depend on a state variable other than time. The latter allows me to directly test whether, for example, the business cycle influences how the instruments predict returns. The results suggest that this is not the case. However, I do find evidence of a structural change primarily in how the instruments predict returns for large firms. The change differs from a break in that it appears to be an extended non-linear transition during the period 1993—1997. After the change, the short rate does not predict returns at all. Dividend yield, on the other hand, is strongly significant, and the return has become more sensitive to it. In the second paper, “Restoring the Predictability of Equity Returns,” I take another perspective on predictability and structural shifts. Several recent papers have questioned the predictability of equity returns, potentially implying serious negative consequences for investment decision-making. With return data including the 1990s, variables that previously predicted returns, such as the dividend yield, are no longer significant and results of out-of-sample tests are often weak. A possible reason is that the underlying structure of the economy has changed. I use an econometric model that allows for regime shifts over time as well as due to changes in a state variable, in this case the price-earnings ratio. This makes it possible to separate influences from these two sources and to determine whether one or both sources have affected return predictability. The results indicate that, first, a structural change occurred during the 1990s, and, second, that the unusually high level of price earnings in the late 1990s and early 2000s temporarily affected predictability at the 12-month horizon. In the third paper, “Coupling and Decoupling: Changing Relations between Stock and Bond Market Returns,” I investigate stock-bond comovement. The correlation between stocks and bonds has changed dramatically over the last ten years, introducing a new type of risk for portfolio managers, namely, correlation risk. I use GARCH estimates of stock volatility, simple regressions, and regime-switching econometric models to assess whether level of volatility, or changes in volatility, can be used to explain some of the changes in comovement in seven different countries. As regards volatility level, strong support is found in almost all countries to suggest that high volatility predicts lower, or negative, comovement. I argue that this can be evidence of a market-timing type of behavior. As for changes in volatility, the results are more mixed. Only for the U.S. market do I find strong support to conclude that large changes tend to coincide with lower, or negative, comovement. This could be evidence of a flight-to-quality (or cross-market hedging) type of behavior. / <p>Diss. Stockholm : Handelshögskolan, 2007</p>

This doctoral thesis consists of three articles: one literature overview and two empirical articles. The first article provides a literature overview about industrial diversification, corporate acquisitions and the intersection of both research areas. This thesis secondly analyzes whether conglomerates invest externally differently from focused firms. This investigation provides new insights on the question how industrial diversification influences corporate investment. It allows to draw conclusions whether internal investment is independent from external investment in diversified firms, or whether weak internal investment in conglomerates is (at least partially) offset by more efficient external investment, or even whether value-destructive internal investment is accompanied by external investment eliciting the same effects. In this case weakly managed multi-segment firms could be also identified by their behavior and success in corporate acquisitions. Third, the thesis copes with the question how conglomerates are perceived and treated as potential targets of corporate acquisitions. This analysis adds further aspects to the question whether multi-segment firms are discounted due to their organizational form. Assuming that the sum of the single segment of a diversified company is higher valued than the conglomerate as a whole, one could expect that investors should strive to acquire such companies, to dismantle them subsequently in order to create additional value by reshaping these inefficiently composed entities. However, there are also contradicting effects of lower synergies and higher integration costs compared to the acquisition of stand alone firms. New insights in these discussions allow us to draw conclusions whether a diversification discount potentially being harvested by a bust up takeover outweighs lower synergies and higher integration costs.

Uppsatsens explorativa syfte är att utforska samt beskriva riskpremiens storlek och utveckling för de EPADs som handlas för olika elprisområden på den nordiska elmarknaden. Riskpremien har definierats enligt de prissättningsteorier som ursprungligen formulerats av Fama &amp; French (1987) och beräknats ur ett ex post-perspektiv. Studien omfattar drygt 700 EPAD-kontrakt från perioden 2006 till 2014 Tillämpning av deskriptiv statistik visar existensen av betydande riskpremier vars tecken och storlek varierar mellan områden och tidsperioder. Detta är i linje med tidigare resultat av Kristiansen (2004) samt Marckhoff &amp; Wimschulte (2009). Några långsiktiga trender har inte kunnat säkerställas statistiskt. Grafisk analys av säsongsmönster visar på låga (höga) riskpremier sommartid (vintertid) för samtliga områden utom Oslo där omvänt förhållande råder. Oslo samt de danska områdenas kontrakt handlas i contango, övriga områden i backwardation. Samtliga kontrakts riskpremier minskar dock över time-to-maturity, vilket stämmer överens med de riskpreferenser som beskrivs av Hillier et al., (2010). Resultaten från denna explorativa studie kan användas för att hitta intressanta perspektiv och frågeställningar till vidare forskning. Resultaten kan även vara av intresse dels för aktörer som använder EPADs för prissäkring och dels för de institutioner som verkar för en effektiv nordisk elmarknad, exempelvis NordREG, Energimarknadsinspektionen och Nord Pool. / This exploratory paper aims to describe the magnitude and development of risk premium in EPADs traded for different electricity price areas in the Nordic electricity market. Risk premium is defined according to the pricing theories originally formulated by Fama &amp; French (1987), and calculated through an ex post perspective. The study includes more than 700 EPADs from 2006 to 2014. Application of descriptive statistics indicates existence of significant risk premia whose sign and magnitude varies between regions and time periods. This is in line with previous results by Kristiansen (2004) and Marckhoff &amp; Wimschulte (2009). Any long-term trends have not been validated statistically. Graphical analysis of seasonal patterns revealed low (high) risk premium in summer (winter) for all areas except Oslo, where the seasonal patterns are the opposite. EPADs for Oslo and the Danish regions are traded in contango and all other areas in backwardation. Risk premia for all contracts do however approach zero when approaching maturity, which is consistent with theory of risk preferences described by Hillier et al., (2010). The results of this exploratory paper can be used to find interesting perspectives and research questions for further research. The results may also be of interest both for traders who are using EPADs for hedging purposes and the institutions aiming to achieve an efficient Nordic electricity market, such as NordREG, the Swedish Energy Markets Inspectorate and Nord Pool.

Bakgrund: År 2010 infördes ISO 10668, en standard som skulle öka transparensen och kvaliteten i varumärkesvärderingar. Trots standarden så skiljer det idag miljardbelopp på kända varumärken mellan olika värderingsaktörer, något som talar för att det fortfarande finns en problematik kring värderingar. En nyhet som kom i och med standarden var den beteendemässiga aspekten där hänsyn ska tas till kunders uppfattningar, kännedom och associationer gentemot ett varumärke. Standarden uttrycker dock inte specifikt hur värderare ska beakta denna aspekt vid en värdering. Syfte: Studien syftar till att analysera hur kunderna beaktas som en del av varumärkets värde vid en värdering. Dessutom kommer studien beskriva varumärkesvärderingens betydelse utifrån olika aktörers befattningar, samt analysera eventuella skillnader och svårigheter i deras tillvägagångssätt vid värderingar. Metod: För att uppnå syftet har vi använt oss av en abduktiv forskningsansats och tillämpat ett kvalitativt tillvägagångssätt. Empirin har samlats in genom semi-strukturerade intervjuer utförda med aktörer som besitter kunskap inom värdering. Slutsats: Våra intervjupersoner har haft skilda åsikter kring hur varumärkets värde ska och bör beräknas, med anledning till deras olika befattningar och kunskap inom området. Överlag har de med lokal förankring ett enklare synsätt än de som arbetar i större revisions- och konsultbolag. I praktiken tycks det dock till slut alltid handla om vad en köpare är villig att betala, eller hur man som värderare skjuter från höften. Det har dessutom visat sig att kunderna inte räknas som ett adderat värde på ett varumärke utan att de istället ska fungera som ett bevis på det värde som ett varumärke påstås besitta, något som det dock finns begränsad kunskap kring. / Background: In 2010, ISO 10668 was introduced as a new standard to increase the transparency and quality of brand valuation. Despite the standard, there is a huge divergence in the value of famous brands between different valuators which implicates that brand valuation still is a problematic area. A new feature that came along with the standard was the behavioral aspect which considers customers perceptions, knowledge and associations towards a brand. Although, the standard does not specify in what way valuators should consider this in a brand valuation process. Purpose: The purpose of this thesis is to analyze in what way customers are taken into account as a part of the valuation of a brand. Also it will describe the significance of brand valuation out of various actors’ positions and analyze possible differences and complications in their procedures. Method: To achieve the purpose of this thesis we have used an abductive research approach and applied a qualitative method. The empirical findings have been gathered through semi-structured interviews with five actors within the valuation industry. Conclusion: Our respondents has different opinions in how, and if, the value of a brand should be measured, mostly because of their different positions and knowledge. Overall, the local valuators have a simpler approach than those working in larger auditing and consulting companies. In practice, however, it seems to be a matter of what a buyer is willing to pay, or how the valuator shoots from the hip. It has also been shown that customers are not counted as an added value of a brand, instead their opinions work as a proof of a brands value, although it is something that there’s limited knowledge about.